6 Perfect Fantasy Picks Staring You Right In the Face
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
48 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 5, 2026
Published
Fri, June 5, 2026
14
Player insights
5
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian WatsonSam LaPortaDrake LondonMike EvansColston Loveland
Player analysis
Player insights
Christian Watson
PositiveRole0:21
With Jaden Reed unlikely to play in two-receiver sets, Christian Watson is expected to be the primary receiver on the field, which enhances his fantasy outlook.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:22
Christian Watson is currently being drafted as wide receiver 30 at the end of the fifth round, which is considered undervalued given his potential to be a fantasy superstar if he can stay healthy and secure a full-time role.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:37
When Christian Watson has played in a full-time route share, he has averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game, indicating his high upside when healthy.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:50
Christian Watson is viewed as one of the best values in drafts due to his expected increased role in the Packers' offense, especially with the departure of Romeo Dobbs.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:55
With the departure of key receivers, Christian Watson is expected to dominate the Packers' two receiver sets, having previously excelled with 3.18 yards per outrun in those situations.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveUsage0:57
Colston Loveland's efficiency on plays with two or fewer wide receivers on the field has been impressive, making him a strong candidate to lead the Bears in receiving categories this season.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveProjection0:09
Before his PCL injury, Drake London was averaging 19.8 PPR points per game and was the wide receiver three up until week 11, showcasing his potential for a strong season.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:16
Drake London is expected to thrive in a heavier personnel offense under new play caller Tommy Reese, which should reduce competition for targets and enhance his fantasy production.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveBreakout0:27
Mike Evans has the potential to have a top-five wide receiver season in fantasy if he stays healthy in Kyle Shanahan's offense, which could maximize his efficiency.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:58
There is a significant risk that Mike Evans could suffer an injury, as he has a history of hamstring issues that could impact his season.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
PositiveRole0:43
Sam Laporta has the potential for significant spike weeks due to his efficiency in multi-tight end sets, with a projected 95% route participation rate in certain matchups.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:43
Laporta has shown nearly 16 fantasy points per game in games where he has a route share above 75%, indicating strong potential if he can maintain a higher snap count.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:45
Laporta is currently being considered as a top tight end option, potentially tied in seven overall, making him a value pick in the ninth round.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:45
Sam Laporta is coming off a significant back injury that placed him on injured reserve last season, and while he has returned to jogging at OTAs, his health will need to be monitored closely.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00They say you can tell a lot about a person by the contents of their freezer.
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0:50Fred Meyer, fresh for everyone. Never again, never again will we let such an obvious league winning pick like Jackson Smith-Njigba slip out from underneath our nose.
0:59That's why today's show is all about identifying the six perfect fantasy picks that are still out there that aren't getting enough attention.
1:06And to guide us through all that is the great Rich Rebar of Fancy Points.
1:11Ryan, you did it again, my friend. You gave us another banger of an article this summer.
1:16Thank you, man. Yeah, I really appreciate that. It's always, you never know like which articles are going to really get a good response.
1:24And I was not expecting this one to honestly, this was very much like I'm nerding out about this topic.
1:30I'm just thinking about personnel changes and stuff and how it could affect fantasy football.
1:35Like I really thought this would be my little hobby horse thing and that it wouldn't like catch on the way it did.
1:42But yeah, really happy with the response. And yeah, just I as you said, I just never want to make the mistake
1:49of missing Jackson Smith and Jigba like I did last year.
1:52So that really kind of inspired this whole research and this entire piece.
1:57Yeah, I think he was going as wide receiver 15 last year on underdog.
2:01I had him ranked exactly as wide receiver 15.
2:04And then as soon as the season started to unfold, you realize I was way too low on him and I could
2:11have easily just a couple wide receiver spots ahead of that had him on every single team.
2:16And I love this topic because we've already hit it in a couple times.
2:21This is like the deepest we're going to go in at all summer long.
2:25It's this perfect intersection of how real life football can then impact fantasy scoring for a position that is kind of go
2:32undergoing some change as we've seen it in recent years.
2:35And not just that it's not just identifying which teams this could happen based on last year's numbers.
2:41It's also predicting which ones have invested so much in the tight end or fullback rooms, which then minimizes how many wide receivers are on the field.
2:49And so that leads like a prediction element on top of this as well.
2:54So like, again, the lead that you had here was, you know, Jason went from rarely playing in two wide receiver sets
3:01last year to 51% of his production coming from two wide receiver sets in 2025, which made up just 38% of his total routes.
3:08So was that it? Was it just missing out on Jason?
3:12Was the reason why you want to write this article?
3:15It was partially that so that that had been in my mind just because I was I've been a Clint Kubiak believer
3:22and booster, including last offseason, but I ended up just being on Ken Walker.
3:26I think we discussed that on the show that we were all very high on Ken Walker.
3:32And it would have worked, Ryan, if we just got, you know, the playoff usage all season long.
3:38Exactly. Yeah. So whatever vindicated on that. Not really, but we can cope.
3:42But yeah, the other like big kind of Kubiak ism that I knew about last offseason, but just didn't put enough stock
3:49in didn't think about enough with regard to JSN was, yeah, the condensed routes just in terms of he would drop back
3:56a lot with only two wide receivers on the field.
3:59That increases the efficiency of whatever wide receivers remain.
4:02I have the numbers laid out at the top of the article, but yeah, it's roughly a 30% increase just for going
4:09from three receivers on the field to two receivers on the field in terms of fantasy points per route run, just because
4:16it's easier to earn targets against fullbacks and blocking tight ends and such.
4:20So, yeah, that was part of why I wrote it.
4:23But also, we saw in the NFL draft that teams are taking sort of the 12 personnel and heavy personnel revolution very, very seriously.
4:30We see even I'm not sure that every team is doing it correctly necessarily.
4:35Maybe we'll talk about they're going to try. Yeah, the Jaguars or whatever.
4:39But yeah, they're they're all trying. They're drafting blocking tight ends very early.
4:43It is going to be at least a thing that NFL teams are trying to do this year.
4:49So, yeah, it is kind of left to us to diagnose and figure out how all of it's going to shake out on each team.
4:57And that's really what I tried to do with this article for any of the teams that I had a good feeling
5:04about or that I could make a good like fantasy relevant argument about in terms of a shift from 11 personnel to 12 personnel or vice versa.
5:12Once again, we're going to show some graphics from the article.
5:16Obviously, that is linked in the description down below.
5:19I really encourage all of you to check it out.
5:22Ryan, you brought a whole bunch of information here for this episode.
5:26And again, we're going to talk about the six or more names that really headline this article.
5:31But laying the foundation, I think, is really important.
5:34And I'm just not going by the information you brought, Ryan.
5:37I did a little bit myself here, too, of digging in research.
5:41So like what I found, the highest percentage of pass attempts in two wide receiver sets or less last season was the Baltimore Ravens around 58 percent.
5:50There were a handful of teams in like the mid 40 percent.
5:53But to me, the biggest changes go into exactly what you're talking about.
5:58The ones the organizations that were near the bottom of the list last year that heavily invested in bigger bodies this offseason.
6:05I mean, the Texans last season, just 74 passes in two wide receiver sets or less.
6:10Then they spent a second round pick on a tight end and also signed Foster Moreau.
6:15The Chargers were 100 pass attempts. They signed Charlie Kolar, David Njoku, Alec Ingold.
6:19The Jaguars, 104. As you said, the infamous already Nate Borker, your selection in round two.
6:24The Jets, 107. Kenyon Sadiq, round one. And the Saints were 24th with 114 pass attempts with two wide receivers or fewer on the field last season.
6:33And they also added Oscar Delp and Noah Fant.
6:36And again, that's anywhere from teams that rank 24th through 32nd.
6:39And that doesn't even include the middle section of of, you know, the NFL last year.
6:44So I'm excited for this. I don't know how we want to start, but should we just dig into some of the
6:51names that you believe could be, quote unquote, this year's Jackson Smith and Jake?
6:56Yeah, let's do it. We can just start with the biggest name, the one that just leapt to me immediately that I
7:02felt the best about as I kind of wrote everyone in this article.
7:07I was like, this is the headliner. It's Ladd McConkie for me.
7:10I think he is the most clearly analogous candidate to be this year's Jackson Smith and Jigba.
7:16The biggest thing is, yes, as you just laid out, they add all of these fullbacks and all these tight ends.
7:22We have the history from Mike McDaniel when he was with the Dolphins was always among the league leaders in terms of
7:29dropping back in sets with two or fewer wide receivers.
7:33Right. We look at the Chargers personnel. Yeah, they add Charlie Kolar, Alec Ingold.
7:37They are clearly building to be a bit heavier.
7:40They're receiving personnel is kind of Ladd McConkie and a bunch of guys that might be good in partial roles.
7:46Trey Harris has his fans. Quentin Johnson has his fans.
7:49But there's no clear second or third receiver that is going to demand, oh, I have to be on the field in 11 personnel.
7:57There have to be three receivers on the field.
8:00It's not clear at all that that's their best way of operating.
8:04So what that means is if Ladd McConkie is the guy that never leaves the field, and as I said, I think
8:11he's the best candidate for that right now on the Chargers, then we can see just a massive efficiency increase from him.
8:18Real life wise, I think McConkie is an excellent player.
8:21We saw that in his rookie season. All of his separation metrics through his rookie year and parts of his year two
8:28were excellent from what we track over at Fantasy Points Data.
8:31And if you just kind of take his first two seasons overall together without like ordering, oh, well, he went from really
8:38good in year one to disappointing us a little bit in year two.
8:42His stats through two seasons are better than Jackson Smith and Jigna's were through his first two seasons.
8:48Like he's been a more productive NFL player over his first two years.
8:52So if we're looking for a year three breakout in terms of has this receiver got into like a production threshold that
8:59we would want to feel OK about a breakout possibly happening, McConkie easily clears that or at least he clears it more than JSN did last year.
9:08So I think the two other big things to kind of watch are, of course, will the Chargers resign Keenan Allen?
9:14I don't think they will. I don't think he fits what McDaniel wants to do.
9:19Allen was a big reason why they were in three and four receiver sets so often last year and spreading it so
9:26much, which is odd for Greg Roman, not what you would have expected.
9:30But I think he kind of forced them to play like that with all these receivers on the field.
9:36And of course, the offensive line is hopefully fingers crossed with the Chargers, as always going to be much healthier.
9:42The yeah, the efficiency splits within without Joe all last year are huge.
9:47So yeah, all of these things come together for me and say, yeah, Ladd McConkie is the most analogous to JSN.
9:53And if you're betting on a receiver in round three, round four to kind of take that leap, he makes the most sense to me.
10:01And a new play caller on top of it, right?
10:04Because we know like a shift just in a play caller's mindset changes how a player gets utilized the year before.
10:11There's so much that you hit on there that I want to really dissect a whole bunch of the pieces.
10:17This time last year, Hayden, I got a lot of heat when we reviewed the second year wide receivers saying Ladd McConkie's tape.
10:25And this is just eye test anecdotal stuff, right?
10:27Was equally as impressive as Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr.
10:31I still believe that from his rookie season. I mean, how easily he separates, how he kind of plays bigger than his
10:38frame than I expected coming out of Georgia was really exciting.
10:41And that led everyone, all of us to willingly draft Ladd McConkie last season as a 21st overall player.
10:47And now we're able to get him as the 41st overall player kind of in the middle of the fourth round territory.
10:54And we know what happened second year, really none of these second year wide receivers really took off as we are previously expecting.
11:02But it goes back to how you are discussing that obviously all wide receivers are more efficient when there are fewer wide receivers on the field.
11:10Again, it makes sense that that one or two wide receivers are better than the tight end two or tight end three
11:17or even fullback one in this case at commanding and drawing a target.
11:21But that's what we're getting here with Michael Daniel, right?
11:24It's not just necessarily two tight ends or three tight ends.
11:28It's also a fullback involved. And it's the one that already knows his offense in Alec Ingold.
11:33So as you wrote, Ladd McConkie only ran 10% of his routes from sets with fewer than three wide receivers this past season.
11:40Comparison, that number was 46% with Michael Daniel with Jalen Waddell out there.
11:44So we are funneling the best pass catcher, hopefully, in Ladd McConkie on this team more and more opportunity and more and
11:51more in those opportunities to be clearly the number one pass catcher on his team.
11:56Yeah, 100%. Yeah, couldn't have said it better myself.
11:59Yeah, that's really what it is to me. There are other receivers you can make kind of similar arguments for, but just
12:06in terms of it being a young player, year three, who has even down to like them being archetype wise thought of
12:13as like, oh, they're kind of more slot type of players.
12:16Like McConkie being able to move to an every down role, win on the outside, which he has like his per route
12:23stats, his separation, all of that on the outside has been great throughout his career.
12:28Even that like piece kind of fits in terms of comparing him to Smith and Jigba.
12:33So, yeah, he's just been my go to in round four, basically.
12:37Just he's the breakout and betting on there. I totally hear you.
12:41Like there are some other round four wide receivers that I like.
12:45And, you know, Terry McLaurin, close to the end of it.
12:48Obviously, Colson Loveland. I'm a big Luther Burden guy named Mecca Bukas in that round.
12:53So round four is just like such, such a much better round to select players and the running backs I have questions about.
13:00So it's like heavy wide receiver or tight end for me in round four.
13:04Two more points on this. I love how you noted that actually Lad McConkie had more production than JSN through two NFL
13:11seasons before the year three breakout, which, you know, it can be easy to forget about that with Jackson Smith and Jigba
13:18heading into his year three season in 2025. One question I did have for you.
13:23We kind of were thrown a wrench or a wrinkle last year in this offense.
13:28And again, that was with Greg Roman. But when they were in single wide receiver sets with multiple tight ends on the
13:35field, Trey Harris was the one that had the most wide receiver usage among any of these guys.
13:41It was kind of split equally between the group after that.
13:44What do you think the odds are that Trey Harris once again owns the 13 personnel looks or 22 personnel looks this season?
13:51Well, I think it's important to differentiate when we're just looking at snap shares in these sets.
13:57Right. Because, yes, Trey Harris was the one receiver in those sets a lot of the time last year.
14:03But that's not always because they're dropping back out of those sets.
14:07Right. A lot of the times that's because we want Trey Harris on the field as a blocker because we're going to
14:14run the ball out of heavy sets and teams overall more often do run the ball out of heavy sets.
14:20What we're looking for is who's going to be on the field when they're actually going to drop back out of the heavy sets.
14:27And that's like from a kind of a bigger picture perspective.
14:31That's like what the advantage or quote unquote like the efficiency hack is here.
14:35Right. This was a big topic with Rams last year with Greg Olson talking about it for weeks at a time.
14:42Like teams figuring out the Rams Seahawks, especially that they can just drop back out of these heavy sets, especially if their
14:49personnel is such that they can run or pass out of them.
14:53It just makes a job of the defense is much harder to match that personnel.
14:58Are you defending the pass? Are you bringing bigger bodies on the field to defend the run?
15:03It's like very, very difficult. So, yes, while Trey Harris maybe is the best run blocker and if they're going to run
15:10out of heavy personnel, it could just be him.
15:13I really think if they're serious about we want to be multiple, be able to run or pass out of these sets
15:20and just be as efficient as possible on offense, then you want your best pass catcher as the wide receiver on the field there.
15:27Love that. Again, last year's show you came on.
15:30We talked about some potential league winners. We brought up Ken Walker at the top of the show.
15:36But let's also not forget that, you know, we discussed Drake May on this episode.
15:41Chris Olave was a player that you and I were relentlessly drafting last year.
15:45I think it was because of, you know, the first down per route run metric that you brought up where that is
15:52kind of the most stable between league winning wide receivers year on year.
15:56So, you know, I think this is a pretty good episode for people to tune into.
16:01OK, I'm relentlessly drafting Ladd McConkie at this time.
16:04Who's next up on your list here that we should be paying attention to?
16:08Let's let's go to Drake London. OK, he's I guess a bit more of an obvious one going in round two, of course.
16:16I and of course, last year he did. He already was somewhat benefiting from more heavy personnel, but we should expect to
16:23see something similar with Tommy Reese as the play caller.
16:26He was calling the plays for the Browns through most of last year has always been kind of a heavier, like more
16:33tight end centric offense, even back when he was at Notre Dame.
16:37So that gives us very likely fewer receivers for Drake London to compete with.
16:41So you're kind of tertiary Falcons receivers, Zachariah Branch, Olamide Zaccheaus, all these guys probably losing out somewhat in terms of snap share.
16:48And when you just look at how London performed in these heavy sets, it was incredible.
16:53I would two or few widers, two or fewer wide receivers on the field last year.
16:59London was up at three point one three yards per outrun point six one fantasy points per outrun.
17:04That was nearly twice as much as any other Falcons receiver on those plays.
17:09And of course, even without like getting into the weeds of heavy personnel, Drake London was amazing last year before he injured his PCL.
17:16He was averaging 19.8 PPR points per game. He was the wide receiver three up until week 11.
17:22Of course, he came back for a few games, which is pretty rare.
17:26Players usually don't come back from PCL injuries. Didn't play that well.
17:30Kyle Pitts was just kind of having the offense run through him.
17:34To me, it's like much more real that London is dominating there from heavy personnel.
17:38I expect that to just continue. And he's being drafted kind of as if that didn't happen last year, like as if
17:45he wasn't a top five wide receiver for the entire season up until the injury.
17:50So he's one he's one where it's like it could be a similar kind of heavy personnel situation.
17:56But that gives me like more confidence in him as like one of the best picks in round two right now.
18:03Yeah. Over an underdog. He's the wide receiver seven smack dab in the middle of round two.
18:08We wax poetic about Drake London. It's so cool to see him already get paid.
18:13And as you talked about here at the play callers, it's Tommy Reese and obviously Kevin Stefanski coming over as head coach.
18:20We'll talk about someone from his tree a bit later on with Drew Petsing in Detroit as well.
18:25These guys love multiple tight end sets. So while the league, it kind of is being commercialized as they are chasing the LA Rams with 13 personnel stuff.
18:34Drew Petsing and, you know, Kevin Stefanski have been running these, you know, heavy tight end personnel offenses for like the past two and three years, you know?
18:43So he's just going to bring that right to Atlanta.
18:46So like while you could say sure last season with the Falcons, their wide receiver depth was really a disaster.
18:53And so they ran a lot more of 12 personnel so they could get cow pits onto the field even more.
18:59I think you can say the exact same thing here again when it comes to this offense.
19:05Like I think out of 12, 13 and 21 personnel, the Browns had the second most past place across the league.
19:11So if we can just copy and paste this, even if the concerns are with Tua Tungavailoa and Michael Penix at quarterback,
19:18we've kind of gotten that selling of quarterback over the last couple of seasons.
19:23And like you said, Drake London coming back from that PCL when people rarely do.
19:27So there's rarely any data coming from it. He was a wide receiver 71 and I think like 113 in the first
19:34two games coming back, which kind of skews his, you know, entire season fantasy outlook.
19:39Speaking of contract extensions, let's talk about Christian Watson.
19:42I know this one of your favorite players this summer.
19:45Let's talk about the heavily handsomely paid wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers.
19:50Oh, yes. Yeah. Christian Watson, one of my favorite players in the NFL.
19:54It was a very fun day to watch him get paid and enjoy that.
19:58But yeah, I think he even before he got paid, I think he was just one of the best values in drafts
20:05because of kind of the personnel puzzle that the Packers present this year.
20:09So you can argue either way, honestly, on whether you think they'll play more three receiver sets or more two receiver sets.
20:16They like to do some two tight end stuff when Tucker Kraft was healthy.
20:21They certainly can play 11 personnel with Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed.
20:25But what's really important is that just looking at what they did into receiver sets last year.
20:30Those were dominated largely by Romeo Dobbs, who's no longer there.
20:34And Ontavian Wicks would mix in some who was also no longer there and who was like the most direct kind of
20:41rotate rotation piece with Christian Watson, kind of limiting his playing time at different points over his career.
20:46So when you just look at the receivers, they have left Watson played on 62 percent of the Packers dropbacks from two or fewer receiver sets on them.
20:55He averaged 3.18 yards per outrun, which was eighth best in the NFL.
20:59And you look at Matthew Golden there, his route participation participation in the heavy sets down at 43 percent.
21:05Jaden Reed down at one and a half percent has basically never played into receiver sets at any point in his NFL career.
21:13So what this kind of does compared to last year where we had five receivers just rotating through and never really hitting
21:20full time usage outside of Romeo Dobbs, just kind of being parked there on the field.
21:25I think Watson just will be that receiver now is what seems most likely to me based on prior usage.
21:31He's just had the most play in those sets last year.
21:34And of course, they just paid him the most.
21:37But also whenever he has been in a full time route share over his career, 13 games above 75 percent of the
21:44routes, he's averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game.
21:48He's been the wide receiver six. So like and of course, like everyone says, oh, but the injuries with Christian Watson, like I get all that.
21:56But really, whether it's injuries or the obnoxious like route rotation that LaFleur had running there for a couple of years, it
22:03really is just playing time that has been the only limiting factor on Watson being like a fantasy football superstar.
22:09And yeah, because of just how the personnel logic works out where Reed is unlikely to play in two receiver sets.
22:16And even if he does, it's probably because Matthew Golden can't hack it rather than because they have Watson on the bench.
22:23It's like, yeah, you what conclusion are we left with other than Watson's basically never going to leave the field.
22:29He has always been amazing when he's been on the field.
22:33And yeah, that's that's really it to me. So, yeah, he's one of my favorite values in all of drafts right now.
22:40You know, I think you and I can kind of get stuck in this fantasy football bubble a little bit, whereas many
22:47people out there in your home league drafts. I think you can take advantage of a lot of almost misnomers of what
22:54the Packers have been previously and who Christian Watson is and really get tremendous value of where he's going to go in your home leagues.
23:01I mean, even right now on best ball size, he's going as wide receiver 30 at the end of the fifth round, the five, six turn.
23:10I still think that's undervalued and Ryan, it's weird nowadays.
23:13I think it's kind of rare for a player to get paid like this and it can be extremely divisive.
23:19And that's exactly what we got here with Christian Watson.
23:22And I think it is because of those injuries and missed games like again in 2023 only played nine games in 2025.
23:29Ten games has never had a season with more than 620 receiving yards over seven touchdowns.
23:34Whereas you and I saw that contract and we watched him play football last year and we look at the underlying metrics
23:41and I know it was his fourth season in the league, but he took a major jump in just in terms of development.
23:49And I understand so many of us look at wide receivers and say, well, they are who they are after year two or year three.
23:57That's really not the case with Christian Watson. They have put in time and effort to make him a complete wide receiver now.
24:04And on the field last year, he was a complete wide receiver.
24:08Like we all remember the high variance downfield vertical shots that he hit with Aaron Rodgers in his rookie season and love
24:15those whenever he's been on the field. But last year, the big difference was he got gimmies, you know, like just if
24:22we're talking about out routes, 7.7% of his targets prior to last season, the first three years of his career made up of out routes.
24:30That jumped up to 35%. The ADOT was lower.
24:32Those were on critical third and fourth down, second and long situations.
24:36We got to have it. We got to, we got to have someone move the chains.
24:41And that was Christian Watson. So now he just attacks multiple areas of the field, every single blade of grass and offense that we do want pieces of.
24:50And finally, a personnel grouping that is now obvious.
24:53Like, am I allowed to say that about the Green Bay Packers now that, you know, Jane Reed has barely ever played in two wide receiver sets.
25:02He's going to have to probably do that some this year.
25:05Matthew Golden, they're in a bit of question marks.
25:08Even if you like the film after his rookie season, the only real tried and true and trusted pass catcher.
25:14He's going to be out there all the time in that Romeo Dobbs esque manner is Christian Watson now.
25:20And he is like tears above in terms of explosiveness and big playability.
25:24So I am again, relentlessly drafting one of these names and his name is Christian Watson.
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26:41Moving on, Ryan, one more wide receiver. And I'm not going to say he's towards the sunset of his career, even if
26:48I want to say he's in the sunset of his career.
26:52But seeing Mike Evans on a new team in the San Francisco 49ers, I also think leaves some room from in that,
26:59like allows us to attack some uncertainty here. So what do you think Mike Evans 2026 is going to look like?
27:05So the way that I kind of put this is when we're looking back on this year of Mike Evans after the
27:12season, it will seem very obvious that that was always how it was going to work out.
27:18And it can work out in one of two ways.
27:21He can be amazing. He can be the best pure, like talented receiver that Kyle Shanahan has had since Julio Jones, like
27:28just massively benefiting from all of these two or fewer wide receiver sets that he never really got to enjoy in Tampa Bay, where he has been what?
27:37Yeah, 36% more efficient from those sets over his career, 34% target per out run with two or fewer receivers on the field.
27:44When that is like all that Kyle Shanahan has done because he loves using fullback so much.
27:49He, of course, would have George Kittle on the field.
27:53But if Kittle's injured early in the year, then a tight end who's not George Kittle on the field, Jake Conjus or
28:00whoever, if he's using a blocking wide receiver in the F role, if that's going to be just John Stripling.
28:06Like there are a lot of eligible receivers that Shanahan likes putting on the field who are not immediate target earning threats.
28:13Right. So that that just makes somebody like Mike Evans so much more appealing.
28:17It just can create so much more efficiency, like target magnetism for him.
28:21He's always run hot on touchdowns every single season of his career.
28:25But I would love to see that in a Kyle Shanahan offense, essentially like the ingredients are there for this to be
28:32a completely special, like top five wide receiver season in fantasy.
28:36Not that different than what we saw with Devante Adams, but just maybe with even like more complete production.
28:42That's not just at the two yard line. Right.
28:44So that's like one side of it. And that's where I fall ultimately with Evans.
28:49I do think that this risk reward is worth it.
28:52But the other way it could go that will also seem very obvious in hindsight is he could tear his hamstring in
28:59week three playing next to the electrical substation like that.
29:03That is totally a possible world we could live in.
29:06I hope it's not. But that's really if Evans stays on the field and is healthy, I am pretty confident he's going to smash.
29:13He's been like top three in all of our separation metrics at fantasy points over each of the past two years, even
29:20though he's been playing through these lower body injuries for a lot of that time.
29:25So it's just what in terms of like old guy wide receiver that I'm willing to bet on this year, it's definitely Evans.
29:32Yeah, I can see thousands of people rolling their eyes that we just hyped up Christian Watson and Mike Evans.
29:39Just, you know, people hate drafting injured players and they've been among the two most injured players over the last few years.
29:46I mean, Mike Evans hamstrings go back about five years in terms of giving us concerns on a weekly basis.
29:52At the same time, again, I think that's an area where you can take advantage of your league mates doing the exact
29:59same thing, not wanting to draft these guys and you playing for upside, you drafting for upside.
30:04Because if we get long stretches of the season, 12, 14, 16 games out of both of these players, then the upside
30:11is there for them to be really season defining assets.
30:14As you put it, I mean, again, Evans only ran 16% of his routes with fewer than three wide receivers on the
30:21field the past two years in Tampa. Again, the reason why we like Kyle you check being on the field or both
30:28Kittle and Tonjes or Luke Farrell on the field is because then that gets the narrower and narrower target tree to these
30:35wide receivers and Juwan Jennings, which isn't the one-to-one replacement for Mike Evans, by the way, but he was up at 44%
30:42last season in 2025 in terms of routes with two or fewer or excuse me, three or fewer, two or fewer wide receivers on the field.
30:51I do expect Sribling to like kind of get that role.
30:54I thought he'd be the best blocking wide receiver from this class, but I just think it's cool when we get someone
31:01like Mike Evans in an offense run by Kyle Shanahan because it's almost like a fantasy draft and Madden is the only
31:08way of doing that in the past. And we can have like one final season, one final season for him to like really leave his mark, I think.
31:17So we've talked all wide receivers so far, but with how there's been so much overlap between the wide receiver and tight
31:24end position in drafts recently and how young that tight end position is getting across the league.
31:29I also feel like Ryan and you can elaborate more on this that not only can you know these heavier personnel packages enhance a wide receiver season.
31:38It can also do that for like alpha receiving types at the tight end position to that's right.
31:43I think the the biggest area to kind of look for here is there are some tight ends that are kind of
31:50on the borderline in terms of they're really good receivers and they're like good enough receivers that you just want to play
31:57them on every down in line, even if they're not like the most amazing blockers because it's a worthy trade off.
32:04Right. I would put Colston Lovelin through parts of his rookie season kind of in that bucket.
32:09And I would put Sam Laporta through a lot of his career so far kind of in that bucket like they're good
32:16enough in line to get away with it. You want them on the field.
32:21Right. But what that can sometimes lead to, as we saw with Colston Lovelin as a rookie and Laporta at times is
32:28they can be kind of borderline in terms of their playing time.
32:32Like those guys are much closer to like 70 percent route share tight ends.
32:36Right. We really want like 80 percent, 85 percent in like the Trey McBride area to get like those super high upside tight end seasons.
32:44And I think that the shift to heavy personnel to more multiple tight end sets, it can really help out those guys
32:51that are already amazing receivers that you want on the field anyway.
32:55But just having more 12 personnel sets, bringing a second tight end or a third tight end onto the field and just
33:02so that you are in that heavy personnel, not giving that up in terms of the run threat either.
33:08That can just create so much more playing time for them and so many more opportunities.
33:13So case in point, just looking at last year when the Bears were in 13 personnel, one wide receiver, three tight end
33:20sets, Loveland was running a route on 98 percent of those drawbacks, which is awesome.
33:24That's exactly what you want. So if the Bears, after they drafted Sam Rauch, still have Cole Komet under contract, if that's
33:31if you're taking that as a signal that they're going to really ramp up the two and three tight end sets, that
33:38that can only be amazing for Colson Loveland just because he's always going to be on the field for them.
33:45Like arguably that's why they want to do it, to keep Colson Loveland on the field even more.
33:50I love one's efficiency on those plays over 4.6 yards per outrun 53 percent of the Bears receiving yards on those plays.
33:57You could kind of see also where Loveland had his big kind of productive breakout toward the tail end of last season.
34:04That was also when the Bears started shifting to a lot more 12 and 13 personnel, of course, partly brought on by
34:11the injuries that receiver Roma Doomsday's injury. But they really stuck with it.
34:15And like, yeah, just the volume production for Loveland stayed around.
34:19Yeah, and their offseason moves suggest that that's kind of what they want to go into this year doing.
34:25So, yeah, I'm only left with the assumption or the conclusion that Loveland just belongs in the elite tight end tier.
34:32I have him ranked pretty close with Trey McBride.
34:34I think it's ridiculous that you were saying earlier that round four is amazing.
34:39I agree. The only thing that sucks about round four is there's so many amazing players I want to draft in it.
34:46Like Loveland should be around three ADP to me.
34:49It's a little absurd to me that he's in round four.
34:52He's at the four or five turn, right? I mean, he's the 46th overall pick, the 10th pick of the fourth round.
34:59There's so much there that you said. One big question I have for you first, though.
35:04So, we haven't had a team, at least this past season, like just totally live out of 12 personnel, right?
35:11The number one team last year in just simply two tight end sets was the Cleveland Browns at 44%.
35:17With how the Bears are constructed this year with Colson Loveland, Cole Komet and Luther Burton and Roma Dunze and really no wide receiver depth after that.
35:25Do you think there is like what percentage chance would you give that the Bears finish this season over 50% out of 12 personnel?
35:33Oh, wow. I haven't really considered giving a percentage to this.
35:36It can't be that high just because we haven't really seen that before recently in the NFL, a team being over 50%.
35:43But I'd give it like a 25% to 30% chance that that happens.
35:47And that's like insanely exciting. Even that is like exciting because even if it's 40%, then that's amazing for everything we're saying, right?
35:55Yeah. And maybe I should even throw in, you know, the 13 personnel looks, right?
35:59Because you bring in Sam Rauch, who like truly is a run blocker.
36:03And this gives you an opportunity for Colson Loveland to not arguably only be their just best pass catcher overall.
36:10But then when you go into two tight end sets, it's him and then Roman Luther.
36:15Then when you get into 13 personnel, then that is Luther and Rome competing to be the only wide receiver on the field.
36:22And then easily, if not the number one, then it's number two pass catcher on the field being Colson Loveland.
36:28I'm so excited for this. I am for this.
36:31I mean, I thought coming out of Michigan that Colson Loveland could just be a key cog and define an entire offense's passing game.
36:39And we really saw that down the stretch. It's somewhat uncommon for this to happen in the NFL now, Ryan.
36:45But like, I'm not going to ask you for another percentage, but I think the odds are pretty decent that Colson Loveland
36:52just is the best pass catcher on the Chicago Bears this year in terms of yards.
36:57Oh, yeah. In terms of touchdowns, in terms of receptions.
37:00And we're able to get that as a tight end three, like you said, in round four.
37:06And typically, we'd have to draft that with Travis Kelsey in round one or, you know, Brock Bowers in round two.
37:12Yeah, I will give you a percent. I'm at like 60 to 65 percent that Loveland just leads the Bears in all receiving categories.
37:20Yeah, that's where I'm at. Yeah. And look, he really didn't get going last year until what about week six or week seven?
37:27Ben Johnson really took his time getting both Colson Loveland and Luther Burden and even Calmonungai involved until after that bye week.
37:34But the underlying metrics, as you said, are simply insane when it's two wide receivers or fewer and especially just one wide receiver on the field.
37:43So I cannot wait for what this offense looks like.
37:46And while I think this next offseason, they'll have to maybe move on from Cole commit.
37:51And then we really just get two tight ends on the field.
37:55We should really enjoy this moment of, hey, the Bears have three legit tight ends on the roster if they all stay healthy.
38:02And that will only accentuate Colson Loveland even more this season.
38:05And I know we're talking about 13 personnel so much and what the Rams, if you include the Super Bowl and the
38:12regular season, had like 20 percent of their past attempts out of 13 personnel.
38:17Like it's not this gigantic number. But as you're saying, if in those moments you get someone with a 4.6 yards per
38:24run and 53 percent market share, like you're getting of receiving yards in Colson Loveland, then that 20 percent can win you weeks in fancy football.
38:32It's really that simple. Yeah. And I do. I will like caveat, of course, that I do think 13 personnel specifically three tight ends on the field overall.
38:41It has been like over discussed. Like, I think it's really just the Rams and Bears capable of doing it in a
38:48way that makes any sense just with the personnel that they have.
38:52So I don't think that that specifically is going to be like what takes the NFL by storm.
38:57But yeah, it's just it's very team by team.
39:00Like, I think people are a little too black and white with how they with how they think about this stuff like NFL wide.
39:08But yeah, specifically with the Bears, I'm all in and I'm excited and I think it could really matter.
39:14And I probably should have said this at the top, but this is obvious.
39:18But one main reason why teams are utilizing that is because, you know, these defenses were not honoring 12 personnel as much as they previously did.
39:26Like they weren't just going to base because of 12 personnel stuff because they thought, hey, our fifth defensive back could stick up to your second tight end.
39:35And we are not worried about, you know, getting run on in those situations.
39:40So then they took an extra layer and said, OK, actually, we're going to add another body onto the field and now
39:47force you into these personal groupings that we want you to just in terms of heavier and slower players.
39:53OK, you said you only really believe it with the Rams and the Bears.
39:57I think I can make a pitch that the Detroit Lions should be part of that.
40:02You mentioned Sam Laporta, and I don't think it's been an under discussed topic, but I just want to reiterate that Drew
40:09Petsing from Arizona is now the play caller. The offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions.
40:14And while the Rams have kind of taken the mantle of being the 13 personnel team, Drew Petsing will tell you that
40:21over the last two years, he's kind of done it the most, you know, and that was with Trey McBride and tip
40:28Ryman, who was a, you know, day to just pure blocking tight end.
40:32And then Elijah Higgins. So this guy has been willing to do it with kind of two lesser tight end talents out there.
40:39And then on this team, you now have Sam Laporta.
40:42You have Brock Wright, who kind of fills that blocking role.
40:46And then you bring in Tyler Conklin, who's also a viable veteran third tight end.
40:51So over the past two seasons, when you combine them, second most passing plays out of 13 personnel, the third most plays
40:58overall out of 13 personnel and tied for the most 15 plus yard passing plays out of it with with 28.
41:04So while this team in the past has had multiple wide receivers and we'll see how much they think about Isaac Tesla
41:11to live out of 11, if Sam Laporta is healthy, I think this could be a team that is up there in
41:18terms of the three tight end usage. Yeah, I agree with everything up to the point of I don't believe that they're
41:25taking Jameson Williams off the field for a third tight end very often, at least like this team is obsessed with Jameson Williams.
41:32Every summer I have to like pull the Jameson Williams quotes from a year ago of just the unhinged things that Dan
41:39Campbell or anyone on the staff says about him every single summer.
41:43It's how they motivate him or whatever, I guess.
41:46But yeah, I don't think they're taking him off the field that often for a tight end.
41:51But what I do think is going to happen is that there's kind of been like some weird quote warfare around this.
41:58Like anytime I bring up multi tight end sets for the Lions, people say, oh, Dan Campbell said that that wasn't going
42:05to be a thing and that it was only because of Petsing's personnel.
42:10That's like not really what he said. Like if you're kind of and I did this, I just went back and listened
42:17to every interview that like a Lions offensive coach gave basically since the combine.
42:21I and what what I really got was that they want to be versatile from week to week.
42:27They think they have the personnel to go to heavy sets in some weeks, depending on matchup and to be an 11 in other weeks, depending on matchup.
42:36And I think that I think that I would agree with that assessment.
42:40They can kind of go wherever they want. And I would also point out that that's kind of what the Rams did last year, too.
42:48Like it was not every single week that they were just OK, we're going to be 20 percent, 13 personnel.
42:54There were weeks where they were close to 50 percent and there were weeks where they were close to zero percent, depending
43:01how healthy Adams was, what they thought of the matchup.
43:04Like they didn't do it as much against the Seahawks.
43:07Like there's all these factors from week to week, but especially from like a best ball lens.
43:13That's amazing. I will. If you told me right now, like there are going to be five weeks scattered throughout the season
43:20where Sam Laporta is actually going to have a 95 percent route participation rate because they're going to be in heavy sets.
43:27And Laporta has been absurdly efficient from multi tight end sets over his career.
43:310.7 fantasy points per out run ranks behind only Puka Nakua, JSN, Devante Adams and Stefan Diggs among wide receivers over the past two years.
43:39Then that's amazing. Like there's just amazing spike week potential for Sam Laporta based on this.
43:44And as as I was saying earlier, I think if they go to a little more 12, just kind of keep him
43:51on the field more bump him from like 75 percent of the routes to 80 percent of the routes that like makes a big difference.
43:59And we've seen that in Laporta's career splits, too.
44:02He's nearly 16 fantasy points per game in his games above a 75 percent route share.
44:07It's just he's had a lot of games where he's either had to rotate off a little too much or has been injured and limited.
44:15Like if he's playing more, that's amazing. Very similarly as to what we talked about with Christian Watson.
44:20This is anecdotal, but maybe a topic for an upcoming article for you, Ryan, because I won't dive into it as much.
44:27But it has always felt like it's either a Jameson Williams week or a Sam Laporta week.
44:33And while there are different body types, they kind of can occupy the same exact area on the field where Ben Johnson,
44:40you know, would get them in these crossing routes and drag routes kind of against the grain of everything else.
44:46And so one of those guys was getting those opportunities each week, and it wasn't both of them.
44:52So I don't know how I'm drafting tight ends this year.
44:55You know, we can talk about the Bowers and maybe lesser for me, McBride, but definitely the Lovelands and especially the Tyler Warrens.
45:02And then I really didn't want to draft anyone in that middle area.
45:07I am talking myself more and more into Sam Laporta tied in seven overall right now in the ninth round.
45:13Now, I do want to say that we as a football collective kind of obsessed over certain injuries like Malik neighbors and
45:20Bucky Irving and some of these other types and kind of forget about other ones.
45:25Sam Laporta is coming off of a significant injury, a back injury that as soon as he sustained it last year was
45:32immediately placed on injury reserve and they just did not play him anymore.
45:36Just yesterday, he returned to just jogging at OTAs and hopefully in training camp, we get more and more positive reports.
45:42And if we do, I would expect Sam Laporta's ADP to climb.
45:46But I just don't want to say that, oh, this is just a player that, you know, has all these underlying metrics
45:53that we absolutely love and, you know, was the best tight end during his rookie season and not talk about this injury
46:00that he has dealt with for many, many months.
46:03But at least he seems to be trending on the right path.
46:07Yeah, agreed 100 percent. You got you do. Thanks for mentioning that.
46:11Yeah, it is one of those ones that you kind of forget about that.
46:15There's like a scary quote about once in a while, but that never kind of catches on.
46:20It's yeah, I I've for a while I've wanted to write a whole piece about just like the fantasy football attention economy
46:27and the things that like capture our imaginations. Just based on like what the algorithm is showing to all of us all
46:34the time and how that like it does change how we draft players and how we think and talk about.
46:41Totally. I don't know what my through line would be there, but that yeah, it's a huge thing that you just hit on.
46:48Well, Ryan, if you write it, I'll probably ask you to have you on the show.
46:53That's what you do. Like when you write these big bangers, then you come on an episode if you have time.
47:00So I always appreciate it, Ryan. Again, I continue to say this every time you come on.
47:05Not only do you get better on these, like I love having you on these episodes.
47:10You are one of the rising stars, I think, in the fancy business that I think it's difficult to come up with
47:17new angles when we talk and especially write about fancy football, but you find it and how to do it every single time.
47:24So before you got to hear anything you want to pitch to people, anything you want to say that what you're up to.
47:32Yeah, you can follow along with all of my work.
47:35All my written work is on fantasypoints.com. You can find me on x at Ryan J underscore Heath.
47:41I always tweet out when I have new work and you can find us on YouTube as well.
47:46Fantasy points YouTube. We have just launched a separate dynasty and best ball channels.
47:51I've been doing some drafts with Jacob Sanderson over there.
47:54So that's really cool. Make sure you guys go check those out.
47:58The channel loves Jacob. And so you guys should go and check out every single show that these two guys do together.
48:05All right. Thanks so much, everyone, for watching. We'll be back next week with a second year player week, second year breakouts.
48:12We're going to go through quarterbacks and wide receivers and running backs and tight ends.
48:16So be on the lookout for that. Hit subscribe.
48:19We'll talk to you all next time. See you.
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