The 8 Most Disgusting Picks in 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
41 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 28, 2026
Published
Thu, May 28, 2026
13
Player insights
10
Players mentioned
Topics
RJ HarveyDK MetcalfCarnell TateChris OlaveCourtland SuttonD.J. MooreJ.K. DobbinsKhalil ShakirMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael Pittman
Player analysis
Player insights
Carnell Tate
PositiveSleeper0:07
Carnell Tate is being undervalued in drafts, with potential to emerge as a top target in his offense.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveRole0:19
Chris Olave is being utilized in various ways, showcasing his talent and versatility in the offense.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
PositiveValue0:52
Cortland Sutton's projections are solid for his ADP, indicating he remains a valuable target in drafts.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeValue0:28
DJ Moore is currently being drafted as wide receiver 27, but the author expresses concern over his declining performance and projects him for only 764 receiving yards this season, which is lower than several other receivers being drafted later.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
NegativeValue0:31
DK Metcalf's ADP remains unchanged despite increased target competition, and his production may decline due to Aaron Rodgers' playing style.
Insight pageNegativeValue0:31
DK Metcalf's draft price has not adjusted despite increased target competition, and he finished as the wide receiver 27 last year with disappointing expected points.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeInjury0:06
JK Dobbins' injury history raises concerns about his reliability and potential fantasy impact this season.
Insight pageKhalil Shakir
NegativeRole0:06
Khalil Shakir is viewed as a limited player in the Bills' offense, likely to be the third receiver behind DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid, which diminishes his fantasy upside significantly.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeValue0:13
Marvin Harrison Jr. is currently being drafted at 67th overall as the wide receiver 33, but the author believes he should be a bench player due to concerns about his lack of manufactured touches and the overall offensive situation.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveValue0:49
Michael Pittman is viewed as a strong fit with Aaron Rodgers, potentially leading to increased target opportunities.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveUsage0:26
RJ Harvey's role is uncertain, and while he has shown potential, he may not be a reliable fantasy asset without injuries to others.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:38
After his first year, there are concerns that RJ Harvey may be leaning towards the bust side of the conversation despite being drafted as running back 20.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:38
Despite a slow start, RJ Harvey was the running back 13 in points per game for the rest of the season after week 8, indicating potential value if patience is exercised.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:40Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack. It's time to piss some people off.
0:44Yes, these are the eight ADPs, the eight spots where players are selected that are the most disgusting right now in your fantasy football drafts.
0:51Hayden, one question for you. Did you drink your haterade this morning?
0:55Of course I did. I'm going to go back to where I've done this before and repeat some names from previous seasons, so get ready for that.
1:02I was excited. I will say this. Felt a little bit more challenging this year to find some really, really mispriced ones,
1:08and even some of the guys that we'll talk about today, it's like, I'm 10 spots, 15 spots lower.
1:14Nothing that really jumps out. I think part of that is because we didn't have that many rookies coming in here, so sometimes there's a rookie.
1:21I'm like, okay, there's no chance this guy's going to be able to pay that off.
1:26We just had fewer rookies kind of go in there and mix things up, so I think it was a little bit more challenging this year.
1:33Wow. Hayden opening with a hedge. Who could have seen that come?
1:37Eight names today I brought for Hayden brought for we're going blind in this episode, so I have no idea the picks
1:43the players that he is bringing up and so hopefully that causes some disruption some disagreement here today and also like we
1:49didn't avoid the easy stuff with Malik Neighbors coming back from this injury in the second round or where she writes and
1:55everything that he's going through in jail for 30 days in the third round.
1:59So mainly we want to talk about like a player who is actually on the field and just the surrounding ecosystem that
2:06they're in that it might be, you know, a disgusting selection at this point.
2:09So with all that said Hayden, why don't you kick us off?
2:13All right, Marvin Harrison Jr. Still not going to believe in this one.
2:17I have him down at 80th overall. He's kind of in the middle of a round where there's a lot of quarterbacks
2:23and some other wide receivers that I kind of just like a little bit more.
2:27So like Alec Pierce would be an example of that.
2:30The problem with Marvin Harrison right now is he doesn't get any manufacturer touches.
2:34He's got a 1% screen target rate over the last couple seasons, and then the downfield stuff has not really materialized.
2:40And then the contested catch stuff has been a work in progress.
2:43It's hard to be kind of like average in the other two categories.
2:47We're not getting the manufacturer touches. And then on top of that, Michael Wilson was like a very real problem last year.
2:53And when I went back and watched the Michael Wilson stuff, I see a real football player.
2:58Like none of that seemed that fluky except for the Cardinals pass game was so outrageous down the stretch with Jacoby Brissette.
3:04They were number one in neutral pass rate. I would be absolutely floored if LaFleur takes that offense and does anything like it was down the stretch.
3:12I think they're going to be way more balanced, especially when they have Jeremiah Love in-house, when they have Algier and even James Conner out there.
3:19It's a lot of running backs. I'm expecting a lot, lot fewer pass attempts in this.
3:24Trey McBride is going to get the manufactured stuff.
3:26I think he's the best player on this football team.
3:29I think Michael Wilson is just on par with Marvin Harrison as a football player.
3:34And then you go into the schedule. They start with the Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs.
3:40Is Jacoby Brissette going to be starting when we need him to be?
3:43I don't think so. And then we starting into Minshew, Carson Beck, a third round rookie starting games by the end of the season.
3:50That makes me pretty nervous here. So I think he's the first guy off your bench wide receiver, finding the right matchups.
3:57And I think a lot of things have to kind of go right for me to be wrong here.
4:02So just to set the table, he's going 67th overall.
4:05So that's the seventh player in the sixth round over an underdog and wide receiver 33 at this point.
4:10So people are drafting him as if they're in his starting in their starting lineup every single week as their wide receiver
4:16three because he's a top 36 wide receiver here on the board.
4:20Yeah, I mean, even if you look last year at where the Cardinals were in scoring and it was tough to get there and even Marvin Harrison Jr.
4:28Didn't get there in this offense. They were 22nd in points scored across the league with 21 points per game.
4:33As you noted, they are projected to be the 32nd highest scoring offense.
4:37That's dead last at 18 and a half points right now.
4:40And like Reeves brought it up in yesterday's show where Trey McBride ran what 120 more routes than any other tight end out there.
4:47That means the wide receivers are also running more routes than their peers in competition as well.
4:52And it still didn't get to a point. So I want to be in the area with Marvin Harrison Jr.
4:58Where he needs to show me something before I feel like I'm going to miss out on his like blow up breakout
5:04season because we haven't seen it so far. Yeah, we haven't the Cardinals were eighth in passing yards per game last year.
5:10I just don't think that's going to repeat. And if that doesn't, then all of a sudden he's got to be a
5:16lot better than Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. Not to mention the Jeremiah Love aspect, but they're going to be force feeding
5:23the ball to their third overall pick. So I just think this is one of the situations where, you know, he's I think he's a fine player.
5:30He's like a very fine NFL starter on a really bad team.
5:34I just don't think that should be like the wide receiver 33 and ADP.
5:38I was thinking about this. This is the fifth iteration of the show that we've done in our fifth year.
5:43I was trying to draft in my mind the four names that you would bring to the table.
5:48Marvin Harrison Jr. was definitely on the list. I know that there's at least going to be another one.
5:54And I feel like, Hayden, if I wrote this down, I get three of the four names that you're bringing here to this episode.
6:01Okay. Yeah. I mean, you probably can. By the way, we're in year five.
6:05Thank you all. I know many of you have been watching since that very first episode, since that very first month.
6:11Shout out to all of you. We're on the road to 175,000 subscribers.
6:14It would be so amazing if you could hit that subscribe button.
6:18It is totally free to all of you. Shout out to everyone who watches and hits that button and also a like a thumbs up.
6:25Let's get a thousand on this very episode. All right.
6:28For me, I will stick with the wide receiver theme.
6:30I think DJ Moore at wide receiver 27 in the middle of the fifth round is pretty disgusting.
6:36Obviously, look, a quick hedge. If this hits, it's massive.
6:38You know, there are high end outcomes because you're attached to Josh Allen.
6:42And that, again, ceiling outcome is fantastic. Let's also keep in mind that his career best season was in 2023.
6:48And he's declined sharply in each of the last two years.
6:51So 2023, 80 yards per game, then down to 57 yards.
6:54And this past season down to 40 yards per contest.
6:57That was with Ben Johnson. One of the best play callers and offenses throughout the league.
7:01There are a number of wide receivers actually drafted after him, Hayden, that are straight up out projecting him at this very moment.
7:08And it's not just one or two. I mean, the list is long.
7:12So to set the table, DJ Moore right now on underdog is projected for 764 receiving yards.
7:16Roma Dunze projected for more yards. Cardinal Tate, Jordan Tyson projected for more.
7:20Michael Pittman goes four full rounds later and is projected for more yards, receiving yards than DJ Moore.
7:25Marvin Harrison Jr., the name you just brought up, is somehow projected for nearly 100 more yards than DJ Moore is right now.
7:32Alec Pierce, Cortland Sutton, DK Metcalf. Again, the list goes on and on and on.
7:36And you can say, well, yards don't matter. It can just be touchdowns.
7:40Projected for a measly five and a half TDs.
7:42So while, again, I understand we have seen alpha seasons in the past from a wide receiver attached to Josh Allen, this offense is going to score points.
7:50I think what we have seen most recently with DJ Moore is a player in his decline, even if he goes back
7:57to being in Joe Brady's offense, which he previously had over 1,100 yards in Carolina.
8:01Yeah, I think that his numbers are going to come back up from where they were the last couple seasons just because he has Josh Allen.
8:08I just don't think that he's going to be like a total needle mover in this offense just because they get so many other guys involved here.
8:16So they're going to want to make this work because they spent so much money and all the draft capital on there.
8:22I think he's going to be a pretty close to full time player in this offense.
8:27I think that they've taken their swings on Amari Cooper and stuff.
8:30So I don't think he's going to fully bust from here.
8:33I think that would be really tragic if he's not a top 30-ish fantasy wide receiver.
8:38But I do think it's the people trying to make the real upside case.
8:42I think they have to be a little bit more accepting of what he's put on the field the last couple seasons.
8:48I am really excited about the potential for him to get the deep ball back.
8:52The best season that he had was with Justin Fields when he was throwing the ball way down the field and he
8:58was coming down with it because he's so explosive.
9:01Josh Allen has not been playing that style offense the last couple seasons.
9:05So I think that's going to be the thing where is that because he didn't have the wide receiver?
9:10Is there something else going on in the offense where they want this to be a little bit more Dalton Kincaid, James cookie?
9:17And if that's the case, then I think DJ Moore, the spike week potential is going to be a little bit maybe less reliable than we're hoping for.
9:25And tell me if you have a different opinion on this.
9:28I do think we are always chasing this wide receiver one attached to Josh Allen because of the Stefan Diggs days and
9:34how he was one of the best assets in fantasy football.
9:37But unless my brain is misremembering, they have talked about how they don't want, you know, a number one wide receiver, an
9:43alpha wide receiver that they want to like spread the football around.
9:47And to me, DJ Moore, when you go back and watch the previous two years, there are some obvious holes and weaknesses
9:53in his game, not just from like a talent standpoint, but also from like an effort and an alignment standpoint too.
9:59So if all that gets fixed and he's just extremely happy in Buffalo and this turns out to be an awesome second
10:05round investment that Brandon being made, then sure it can pay off.
10:09But I think we're just in a different era of this bills passing offense than the war of the days of Stefan
10:15Diggs and Josh Allen being one like the more unstoppable duos.
10:18So looking at the receivers after him, like you'd rather have like the Roma dunes day.
10:22I think that Christian Watson's a great pick. We talked about that with Lord Reeves on the last episode.
10:28Even this fifth round, like I think there's such a stark difference in the Terry McLaurin and Jalen Waddle versus DJ Moore.
10:34And then we talked about liking the round five running backs more than the round four running back.
10:39So like the Dave Montgomery to DeAndre Swift to Quinchan Judkins and Jadarian Price, like there's just a lot more names in
10:45this round that I'd be excited to draft than click on DJ Moore's name.
10:49Right. I'm fine with him in this round. I don't, I'm not going out of my way to draft him.
10:55I would much rather have like DeAndre Swift, Jalen Waddle and McLaurin right in front of them.
11:00And there's Lamar Jackson there too, who could be quarterback one that we're getting a huge discount on versus where he was
11:06going last year in the third round. Yeah. Yeah.
11:09Not surprised that DJ Moore is in the same exact draft slot as the Josh Allen drafter in the third round.
11:15So I think that this ADP is going to sit right here exactly for the entire summer.
11:20And I think this is about the right spot, but I'm not believing in like a total upside case here.
11:25By the way, we're going to talk about underdog ADPs.
11:28You can see them on the board right now.
11:31This is throughout the entire summer. If you've never done drafted on best ball, you should do it right now.
11:36All you do is draft. There's no lineups. There's no waivers.
11:39There's no, you know, getting injuries and then not having someone in your starting line because of a zero.
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11:51So use promo code the show. The link is in the description.
11:55Play five bucks. You get 50 bucks in your back pocket too.
11:58So go and play some best ball this summer.
12:01All right. Two names down. I have a feeling who your second name is going to be.
12:06Just give it to me. I'm going to rearrange my order and I'm just going to say Khalil Shakir, which was so funny.
12:12I was trying to bite my tongue here. I was trying to bite my tongue.
12:16I think the problem with Khalil Shakir is he had a 26% screen rate.
12:20So that's like how many of which of his targets were actually screens.
12:24DJ Moore was seventh on that list. I think there's a chance that a lot of these screen targets with Khalil Shakir
12:30are going to end up going to DJ Moore.
12:33And aside from that, Khalil Shakir is kind of pigeonholed away from the red zone because of his size.
12:38He got like a couple touchdowns down there because of a screen and he would have some yards after the catch appeal.
12:44I think he's a good football player. But I think we also have to incorporate that Dalton Kincaid missed time and it
12:51also was playing through injury this past season. So I think all of a sudden Dalton Kincaid, they want him to be better than Khalil Shakir.
12:58Same thing with DJ Moore. So now we're looking at like the third receiver in the mix.
13:03You have to worry about somehow like a key on Coleman getting involved.
13:07They run all these different personnel sets. So I think all of a sudden his routes come down a little bit.
13:13It's a really balanced offense out there. So last year, the number two receiver on this team was like way, way, way after Khalil Shakir.
13:20That's just like not going to repeat. And as the wide receiver one on this team, he finishes the wide receiver 44 on wide receiver 49 usage.
13:27So I just don't see like much upside appeal here.
13:30And he can get down to the threshold where the routes and the targets per game, aside from like the deepest of
13:36PPR leagues, it just doesn't move the needle enough.
13:39So at this point in the draft, I want to take some shots on wide receivers.
13:44I think I have a chance to kind of go up.
13:47So it's like the Casey Concepcion, like that kind of tier.
13:50I think even some guys even a little bit further down from this, like Steph Diggs, Jalen Naylor, some guys I think
13:56have a chance, like really get enough targets to matter.
13:59I think he's going to be the number three guy in the offense here behind DJ Moore and Kincaid.
14:04And at that point, like what exactly am I hoping for?
14:07Yeah, I think again, the bills passing offense and I didn't expect to go for 12 minutes on this, but it kind
14:14of breaks your brain in fancy football where if you put on paper, oh, they're the third highest scoring offense.
14:19We want all the pieces for that. You kind of don't like you wanted Josh Allen and you wanted James Cook and the rest.
14:26You were frustrated on a weekly basis to put out there in your starting lineup.
14:30And that's just how they have operated. I also speak of operations.
14:34Don't know if you have seen this Twitter handle called banged up bills, but they go through injury news.
14:39This is back on May 20th. Quote, we got a ton of injury info coming out of bills.
14:44Phase three OTAs. Khalil Shakir underwent surgery. This offseason return to OTAs wearing an ankle stabilizer to protect the healing ankle from surgery.
14:51Possible tightrope procedure. Tightrope is one of those terms that we do not want to talk about, especially for a guy who
14:57relies on speed and yards after the catch to create his fancy points.
15:01Yeah, the cutting. So obviously that's big news over there as well.
15:04So I just think Don Kincaid, as frustrating as he is, like there's still some room for upside if he can stay on the field healthy.
15:12And then last year with everything going right for Khalil Shakir, he would have been like a fine pick at this range.
15:18Nothing too crazy. And that's like with everything kind of breaking his way.
15:21So I'm out. All right. I'll stay in this range then.
15:25Tenth round. If you look at projected passing touchdowns, unfortunately, Tyler Shuck as quarterback 19 is overpriced.
15:29Underdog predicts him for 19 and a half passing touchdowns this season.
15:33You can also find 18 and a half as a number out there.
15:37That means there are only three quarterbacks, three that have a lower projection in terms of passing scores.
15:42Cam Ward, Malik Willis, and Fernando Mendoza, which we expect him to what?
15:45Play 11 games at max. Now we can add in rushing touchdowns.
15:49His projection there is at four and a half.
15:51And that's after I think three rushing scores last year in nine games as a starter.
15:56And then you can also look at his projected passing yards.
15:59That's at 3,500. So that is right in the middle.
16:02So if you put that all together and Hayden after the show, if you want to do the math and how I get it wrong, that's fine.
16:09You can do that. Basically, again, if you convert all those into fancy points per game, that puts him in line with
16:16what Sam Darnold put out last year as quarterback 25 in points per game.
16:20Again, in nine starts, 10 passing scores, three rushing scores last year.
16:23So overall, if I zoomed out and I look at offenses that could take a step this season, do I think this number is low?
16:30I do. I mean, it's Kellen Moore. We talk about pace and plays all the time.
16:35They added Travis Achan. They also added Jordan Tyson.
16:37Even getting like Oscar Delp to work in like 12 and 13 personnel sets, I think is really cool.
16:43But, and these things are tied together. It's not just like the individual projected stuff here for Tyler Shuck.
16:48It's also the projections for the offense. I mean, the Saints are projected for the 24th most points.
16:53So I don't entirely hate Tyler Shuck as quarterback 19, although I would take Malik Willis over him.
16:58But in this round 10, there are just other names I want to click more.
17:03And Casey Concepcion and Bill Krosky-Meritt and definitely Matthew Golden there at the top of round 10, just because I think that
17:09like there's some real upside outcomes there. And projected numbers here for Tyler Shuck do not indicate a real upside outcome.
17:15I almost had Jordan Tyson on my list. I think Shuck is a good one.
17:19This one's pretty complicated because I have him as listed as like a higher on his pick them lobby projections.
17:25Like you're saying, I think the Saints are going to score more points of being number 24.
17:30And still, he's priced way too close to the other quarterbacks that were like very clearly going to be fantasy quarterback ones.
17:36Like he's not that far off from freaking Matthew Stafford.
17:39Kyler Murray? Kyler Murray is kind of right there.
17:41I think Jordan Love and Malik Willis are going to be pretty interesting.
17:45So I kind of like Tyler Shuck. We're going to talk about him a lot in like a couple weeks here when
17:51we go through the second year players week. So I'll save like all the film notes there.
17:56I think it's going to be pretty solid. I just think it's a little bit hard for him to kind of squeeze
18:02out his current projections versus the ADP in relation to the other guys.
18:06Like I would just rather pay the premium on the Justin Herberts of the world, the Trevor Lawrence's of the world, and
18:12then kind of like those two V2s versus Tyler Shuck.
18:15And this is nothing to say anything bad about Tyler Shuck and Kellen Moore.
18:19I think they're going to be totally fine. I just think that the ADP is like a round off right now.
18:25Again, if you want to place him here in your rankings, I understand it.
18:29I also think with everything that we've said, he's kind of being drafted at one of his higher end outcomes.
18:35If we're just zooming out and looking at what other markets are suggesting here for the Saints.
18:39But again, we're going to have one of the shows where we discuss the highest scoring offense, the projected lowest ones, and predict some that might overdo that.
18:47I guess my bigger question here, though, like if we're talking about the Saints and just projected the 24th highest scoring offense,
18:54that means Travis Achan is a third round pick.
18:56That means Chris Olave is a third round pick.
18:59That means Jordan Tyson is a sixth round pick.
19:01Like this is rich. Yeah, I think one of two things are off or maybe both.
19:06Jordan Tyson's overpriced or Tyler Shook's projections in the Pick'em Lobby are way underselling it.
19:10Like those two things could not be true together.
19:13I do think Olave is so good and he was being used in different ways.
19:17I think he's fine. I feel very, very confident that Travis Achan is going to be a baller in this offense as well.
19:23I just think that Shook plus Jordan Tyson, it's not math and out right now.
19:28All right. Four down. Four more to go. Who's next?
19:31Let's go to DK Metcalf. This is a situation where there's a lot more target competition.
19:35The price tag hasn't really budged and there was more evidence last year that the Aaron Rodgers upside case has a lot lower chance of paying off.
19:43So he was the wide receiver 27 on wide receiver 34 expected points last year.
19:47He was the wide receiver 32 in targets per game.
19:50That's about where his ADP is. The problem is Michael Pittman, I think, is a really good fit with Aaron Rodgers.
19:56All those like checks that DK Metcalf was getting on slants out of out of run calls.
20:01I think Michael Pittman could do a whole lot of that.
20:04And I just begin to wonder, is DK Metcalf going to like his ADOTs and go way back up because he's not going to get the gimmies.
20:11And at the same time, Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to throw the ball down the field because he doesn't want to get hit.
20:18So he was actually the per game wide receiver 42 in targets of 15 plus air yards this past season.
20:24I think that's mostly an Aaron Rodgers stat. I don't think DK Metcalf scheme has really changed all that much.
20:29I think he's a really solid wide receiver. But I just think that Michael Pittman is going to get involved a little bit more.
20:36I think Jeremy Bernard among like second round rookies.
20:39He seems pretty Aaron Rodgers coded. And I think they're going to run the ball behind this pretty solid offensive line here.
20:45So I have him like around lower than where he's currently being projected.
20:49The Aaron Rodgers, you know, being 42 years old, like one injury.
20:52And then all of a sudden we're into a pretty difficult situation here.
20:56So I've seen that the gimmies are going to go down.
20:59The inconsistency is going to go down. And in redraft, you're going to be trying to say, OK, the Steelers are projected for 22 points this week.
21:07And DK Metcalf now gets four or five targets per game.
21:10Is this the week when he's going to catch the long pass?
21:13And that game is pretty terrifying to me. I mean, they basically tried to transform DK Metcalf into Michael Pittman last year.
21:19Yeah, it was crossing routes that were very short, some RPO stuff and slants and like a lot of stuff in the
21:26trash in the middle of the field. That's where Michael Pittman has done his best work in Indianapolis.
21:31That's never where DK Metcalf does some of his best stuff.
21:34I mean, I remember one catch, I think it was against the Vikings.
21:37They took a short pass and outran everyone. It's like, cool, we get to see it.
21:42But we just don't get to see like the special sauce that DK Metcalf brings to an NFL team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
21:49It's just not that type of thing. And sure, every game we might get one throw from Aaron Rodgers.
21:54It's like, oh, old man still got it. Like the placement, the flick of the wrist, all that type of stuff.
22:00But it's very different than getting multiple of those opportunities per game here for DK.
22:04And yeah, I mean, it goes from basically being the only wide receiver on the team last year to Michael Pittman and
22:11even Jerry Bernard, who has experience all over the field during his time at Alabama.
22:15Yep. Last note for me in three or four wide receiver sets last year, 15% target share for DK Metcalf when he
22:21was the only wide receiver out there. That was a 25% chance.
22:25When you start chopping off some of the wide receivers like the tight end, the Johnny Smiths, I'm expecting the Steelers just
22:31to use three wide receiver sets a little bit more.
22:34That goes back to Mike McCarthy as well. And all of a sudden, I'm just fearful that Michael Pittman is like not
22:40that different than DK Metcalf in terms of just like the target shared numbers.
22:44So I would just rather take Michael Pittman a whole lot later.
22:47And by the way, the Michael Pittman projections are like pretty rock solid for his ADP.
22:52Yeah. I was stunned going through it. And so are Cortland Sutton's, by the way.
22:56The markets have not given up on Cortland Sutton here in terms of touchdowns and receiving yards.
23:01Yeah. I love Cortland Sutton. I think I'm on his lower.
23:04People love drafting rookies, Hayden. So let's talk about a rookie here.
23:07Carnell Tate's ADP is disgusting, but it's disgustingly too low.
23:10Wow. Okay. Hit me. So Kyle Bernoni posted this graphic and we'll get producer Reeves to throw it up here of where
23:17rookie wide receivers have been drafted since 2021. And despite being the fourth overall pick, let me remind you, that's where Cardinal
23:23Tate was just drafted a couple of months ago.
23:25Tate is going as the 60th overall selection right now.
23:28So again, since 2021, five rookie wide receivers have been selected higher than that.
23:32Malik Neighbors finishes the wide receiver eight in points per game, drafted as the wide receiver 18 that year.
23:38TMAC just this past season finishes the wide receiver 22, drafted as the wide receiver 17.
23:42So that's a small loss. Jamar chase finished as the wide receiver four in points per game after being selected as the wide receiver 21 in underdog drafts.
23:50And he met a book that we know finishes the wide receiver 26 last year drafted as the wide receiver 29.
23:56The one big whiff is a name that you brought up first here.
24:00Marvin Harrison, Jr. Because people lost their freaking mind and drafted him 13th overall at the one, two turn.
24:05I think he was a name in the show, by the way, back in that year.
24:10Yeah, of course. And he finishes the wide receiver 43 in points per game.
24:14So look, two huge wins, one small win and one small loss.
24:17So that price tag that we're talking about here with Carnell Tate isn't close to a lot of the names that we're mentioning.
24:24And he's 60th overall and being selected as the wide receiver 30 in drafts right now.
24:28So basically what I'm saying is I don't think that there's bottoming out potential here for Carnell Tate.
24:33He is a technician. He can line up all over the field.
24:37He has incredible hands and Brian Dayball is willing to feature young wide receivers in the past and he wants to push the football down the field.
24:44So at worst, it's a small loss. But then I think even more so what I want to lean into here is that there's big win potential.
24:52Like what if Cam Ward plays like the first overall pick like he was last year?
24:57And Carnell Tate looks like an alpha wide receiver that he was drafted to be.
25:01So this is to me a discount on a rookie wide receiver who is clear the number one wide receiver on his team.
25:07And that almost never happens when we're talking about underdog and fancy drafts in general.
25:12Yeah, I think my closest comparables to him were Ted Rowan McMillan, who was the wide receiver 24.
25:17Chris Olave, wide receiver 24 as a rookie. Garrett Wilson, wide receiver 30 as a rookie.
25:21Drake London, wide receiver 41 as a rookie. And then Roma Dunes, I think maybe is another comp for him.
25:27He was he had a pretty difficult rookie season.
25:29There's just not that much competition here. Like Wondell Robinson is fine.
25:33Calvin Ridley is fine. You know, they don't really have a standout tight end.
25:37So I kind of have him at this ADP.
25:39I like him a lot more than I like Jordan Tyson.
25:43One spot apart right here. I think there's a chance that he's a lot better than people are giving him credit for.
25:49Once you're once he's not competing with Jeremiah Smith.
25:51Once Ohio State's not throwing the football in the fourth quarter, because they have like four top 50 picks in the NFL draft on defense.
25:58All of a sudden, there's gonna be more shootouts.
26:01And Cardinal Tate's just numbers are gonna look a lot better.
26:04And he crushed against zone. He crushed against man coverage over three yards per outrun in both of those.
26:10He's a five star recruit out of the IMG Academy.
26:12Balled out early on as at Ohio State, despite having all that target competition.
26:16So I think he's a really good football player.
26:19I'm hoping Cam Ward gets a lot better here.
26:21I think he's gonna have like a 20% target share as a rookie.
26:25I think that's pretty exciting. I have another rookie.
26:28Can I just transition to that? Go for it.
26:30On the opposite end, I don't think I'll be drafting much Omar Cooper.
26:34All right. We're talking about the 12th round here.
26:36It's not like this price is expensive. Again, it's wide receiver 59, eighth pick of the 12th round.
26:42So 140 overall. But it's the story that like you have to tell yourself that he becomes a very strong asset in
26:48facing football this season that loses me. Okay. First, we're talking about the offense that is projected to score the second fewest points in the league this year.
26:56Second fewest. Okay. Despite all the assets that they put in on the offensive side.
27:00They also have an unquestioned alpha in Garrett Wilson.
27:03So this isn't like a first round wide receiver on paper that we just talked about with Cardinal Tate who should step
27:09in as our number one wide receiver. In fact, they drafted Omar Cooper after already drafting Kenyon Sadiq.
27:14So even in this draft class, he was their second pass catcher that they selected.
27:18And I actually think AD Mitchell is likelier to open the season as the X and likelier to be out there in
27:24two tight end sets, which I think we're going to get quite a bit of with Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq according to the Jets plans.
27:32So to recap all of that, we have one of the worst projected offenses with a third round fantasy draft pick at
27:38running back, a fourth round fancy draft pick at wide receiver, and then an awkward opportunity pipeline after that.
27:44And to me, if you still want to draft rookies, there are actually other rookies being selected after him like Denzel Boston
27:50or Antonio Williams two rounds later that have a clearer path to targets on possibly better offenses.
27:55And even if you want like to do a veteran Jalen Naylor in the next round, I think has a better pathway
28:01to targets and is a projected better offense too.
28:03I got Omar Cooper listed as a lower in the underdog projections.
28:07I think that's like my favorite way to play this because he's project for 624 yards.
28:11Like that would be a really good season, I think for Omar Cooper, because I think what you said is very true.
28:18Is he going to be out there in three wide receiver sets or in two wide receiver sets?
28:23Because if he's only out there as like the slot or the flanker only in three wide receiver sets, that's just not going to cut it.
28:30And especially 60% route participation, 55%. Right. And, you know, it's Garrett Wilson here trying to compete with.
28:35So I think they have to use the two tight end sets because they drafted tight ends really early in back-to-back drafts.
28:41Um, and with Omar Cooper, he snuck in there as a first round wide receiver.
28:46My opinion is he was not a first round wide receiver talent in general.
28:50I liked his yards after the catch ability, but it wasn't anything too crazy.
28:54I thought his route running was kind of raw.
28:56His contested catch situation was kind of really up and down.
28:59He made some fantastic ones, struggled in other situations.
29:02I thought he was around two wide receiver. And then in this draft class, you push him up a little bit.
29:08Uh, I think he's got a decent enough floor for the jets, but in this offense this year, I think it's just asking a lot.
29:15Uh, so he's like my wide receiver 70 and like your home leagues, you should not be drafting.
29:20Now with that said, I feel like rounds, I don't know, 12 through 18 this year, the late rounds are lacking in
29:26terms of a talent pool than more so than we've ever had before.
29:30Um, I agree. That's anecdotal. Maybe that's incorrect, but no, that's, that's a fact.
29:34It is tough drafting. Once you get to, I don't know, around 12, 13, especially 15 through 18, it's, it's pretty brutal.
29:40Yeah. Um, but I almost just want to rank Jalen Naylor ahead of Omar Cooper straight up.
29:45And again, I'm like you, I do. I like certain aspects of Omar Cooper's game.
29:49Gumby like movements. Uh, you know, he absorbs contact.
29:52He wins on contact. He's physical after the catch.
29:54I know he played more outside in 2024 and then played on the inside in 2025.
29:59Uh, and look, maybe Antonio Williams where he was selected and we're just banking an opportunity that doesn't work out or Denzel
30:05Boston being a second round wide receiver attached to Deshaun Watson, Shooter Sanders.
30:09That doesn't work out, but, uh, I can already talk myself again into a pipeline of targets for those three names that
30:15I said versus what Omar Cooper is probably going to get this year.
30:19I would guess that Brendan Strange straight up out scores Omar Cooper and he goes after, you know, just one of those situations.
30:25Interesting. Yeah. This is one where like the tight ends can outscore the wide receivers in this area.
30:30Yep. That's for sure. Okay. Uh, we've been agreeing way too much, Hayden.
30:34I've had this one name in mind that I was certain you were going to talk about here today.
30:40Is this your last name? It's a entire team's position that I'm going for.
30:44And I think you're going to be right. Is it Broncos running backs?
30:47Were you talking, were you kind of, uh, looking at RJ Harvey?
30:51Which one was it? I'll just say it before you get started.
30:54I saw you tweeting about Luther Burden and I thought you were going to bring Luther burden to the table here today.
31:00I wanted to have that conversation for another show.
31:03It's going to be, that's going to be like maybe like the most difficult ranking show.
31:07I think that's going to be in there. We're going to have a lot of opportunity to talk about Luther burden.
31:13So I did not, uh, include him in this show, but the, the on off splits are going to be pretty crazy.
31:20You're gonna have to pick your side with Luther burden, but well, for the, for the Broncos, that's really disappointing here real
31:26quick, Hayden, because, uh, I thought you were going to be negative about Luther and then Ben Johnson, you know, 20 minutes
31:32before the episode says, quote, I'm buying Luther burden stock right now.
31:36And so not only do you have to disagree with me.
31:39Yeah. I'm buying Luther burden stock right now, but also, uh, you know, his head coach and play color and offensive coordinator, the timing would have been bad.
31:47And guess what? He was initially on the list.
31:49I text most shown weaves. I said, we're going to have to pivot today.
31:53Uh, this is not, today is not the day to come out negative with Luther burden.
31:58So we have, we have the whole summer for me to be, uh, more realistic here, but, uh, uh, Luther burdens fine.
32:04Enjoy it. Uh, this is the time for, for Luther burden.
32:07Um, as we're the Broncos running backs. I just think that the entire committee is overpriced.
32:12The reality is Sean Payton wants to use a bunch of running backs and he's got the three very clearly here with Jonah Coleman.
32:18I think being an upgrade over kind of like the rotation they've had running back three, four, the last couple of seasons.
32:25I don't think that's going to change. I also want to acknowledge that the Broncos offensive line last year was arguably the best in the NFL.
32:32They didn't miss almost any time. They had a center injury, uh, late in the year, but the backup center was totally fine.
32:39They had one of the best, uh, guards, uh, one of the two best tackles on both sides.
32:44There are all these guys going to stay healthy.
32:46Is Bo Nix going to stay healthy like he did last year?
32:50And then some of the, the receiving production that an RJ Harvey could possibly get all of a sudden you have Jalen
32:56Waddle and they still have the other manufactured wide receivers.
32:59I'm sure going to be involved to a certain degree.
33:02So kind of everything was going right for the Broncos last year and JK Dobbins.
33:06He was the running back 25 on running back 29 usage for the first 10 weeks of the season.
33:11He's priced just after that, but he just also broke his foot.
33:15And like the, the reliability for JK Dobbins is too, uh, too tough to ignore.
33:19But I do think that he's going to be the starter because they gave him $10 million guaranteed this off season.
33:25So then you get to RJ Harvey and when Dobbins was healthy, RJ Harvey was the RB 36 on all RB 54
33:31usage with everything going right for the Broncos. So I think someone's going to have to get injured for this to kind of go up.
33:38And you can say that about any of the running backs, like what happens to Blake Horm, Kyron Williams, uh, goes down.
33:44So I think like he should be priced closer to the handcuff range.
33:48Uh, but I don't want to be trying to like buy JK Dobbins either.
33:52And then same thing with Jonah Coleman. He's going to be one of these kind of like late round running backs.
33:58Like, could he straight up win the job? I don't think that he was that good of a prospect.
34:03He's kind of old, reliable. Like he's kind of the guy that to me gets in the way of other guys, but
34:10doesn't establish himself as like somebody that's like worthy of like double digit touches in a game.
34:15So I just, I'm looking at Sean Payton. Like he's telling us for a decade here in a row, I want three running backs on the field.
34:22And I just don't think that any of these guys are going to completely run away with the job.
34:28And then at that point, it's like, all right, like we have like the running back 33 and fantasy, like who cares?
34:34Uh, okay. A few things to hit on here.
34:36Um, overall, I think I agree with you. That's if JK Dobbins stays healthy.
34:40Um, look, you can always write like JK Dobbins was on pace to have a career season because it's true, but then he just misses games.
34:48And I'm, I'm not someone that, you know, is an injury predictor here, but unfortunately it has happened every single season here
34:54for and big ones and big ones that he, it doesn't like miss a game or two.
34:59He misses massive chunks of the season. Now, if he stays healthy, like two years ago was one of my favorite picks on the board.
35:06And that was awesome until it wasn't, you know?
35:08Uh, and, and the thing to back up what you're saying with Sean Payton, um, he's never had a back with 250
35:15carries in one of his offenses, but he has had 24 different backs hit 50 targets.
35:19Uh, and RJ Harvey did hit 50 plus targets last season.
35:22Um, look, I understand as the running back 20 overall that RJ Harvey early on in the season was not a fun pick.
35:29I will say that one thing during my paternity leave that I vastly disagreed with you on is you naming cam Scadaboo
35:35as the rookie of the year, where to me, it easily should have been RJ Harvey over him because like there was
35:41a huge portion of the season where the games mattered most, where RJ Harvey was one of the highest scoring running backs in all of fantasy football.
35:49I mean, weeks of running back six, nine, four, five, 11 and 11 during, you know, week eight through week 17.
35:55And so sure. When you watched was some of that on third downs in the red zone near the goal and they
36:01had these package plays a hundred percent. Um, can that be repeated?
36:05Probably not. But, uh, I also am not ruling out like RJ Harvey kind of improving as a player here in year two as well.
36:12Yeah. Without Dobbins available, he was the RB 17 on RB 10 usage.
36:16Like that's like, that's what we're hoping for. I think we can say that about a bunch of handcuffs that would kind of go into that role.
36:23Um, and I still will say the efficiency metrics for RJ Harvey were pretty tough.
36:27He was 42nd in EPA per carry 32nd in rush yards over expected.
36:31That's out of 46 qualifying running backs behind the best offensive line in football.
36:35So I think, but the best offensive line stuff like the year before with Javante Williams was also really good.
36:41Like he wasn't a very good fancy asset. Yeah.
36:43I thought last year, the Broncos offensive line was probably just a step above even that.
36:48Um, but, uh, and then yeah, bone next may be slightly better.
36:51It's one of these guys can pay off. Like that's like not, not the argument.
36:56It's just, I think that RJ Harvey is priced way, way higher than a lot of the contingent based guys.
37:01And I think right now, like the Broncos signed JK Dobbins for $10 million guaranteed this year.
37:06Like that just happens a lot of money. Uh, and they were also flirting with, uh, Travis H and they were flirting with Kenneth Walker.
37:13They were flirting with Jadarian price. Like they, they made it very clear.
37:17We want to upgrade the running back position. They were able just to return it with JK Dobbins.
37:22But I do think that they were flirting with a lot of running backs.
37:26And it's like, you can read into that being an indictment on RJ Harvey, like within reason.
37:31Uh, and I think you'd also make the case that if they didn't have, since they didn't have a bigger investment than
37:37Jonah Coleman, that's actually the best possible outcome here for RJ.
37:40Yes, I definitely agree. I just think it was kind of surprising to me like that Dobbins got $10 million.
37:46Like that, that's a lot of money. Like that, that to me makes it pretty clear in week one, if everyone's healthy,
37:52they are assuming JK Dobbins is going to be the starter.
37:55And then obviously Harvey improves, uh, he can steal his job.
37:58I also wanted to acknowledge RJ Harvey. I thought it was a very boom bust prospect, like his athleticism shined, but he's
38:05also a 24 year old coming from UCF. Uh, and he's not the biggest guy out there.
38:09So like, I'm going into this, like, all right, does it feel like he's booming or does it feel like he's busting?
38:16And like after this first year to me, I'm feeling more like he's going to be on the bust side of the conversation.
38:22Yeah. I mean, I'm just looking at my notes that I had for RJ Harvey.
38:26And again, he had to, he was drafted as running back 20 to close drafts.
38:31But the final line that I had was again, be patient, give me until week six and this will pay off in a big way.
38:38They had to wait until week eight, but he was the running back 13 and points per game for the rest of
38:44the season in like the point of the calendar, which wins and loses your fantasy seasons.
38:49And he was a major, major asset. Yep. Until week 18 and then the playoffs and then did nothing again.
38:54So it's like, well, yeah, but I'm talking about the fantasy season.
38:58No, I know. I, whenever just like whenever I'm referencing any metrics on the show, I include the post season stats because
39:04obviously those matter like probably more than the regular season stats in general.
39:08And some of these players we talk about, like all of a sudden, like the post season stuff wasn't as exciting and
39:14we should probably factor that into some degree here.
39:16Okay. I think that's eight names. Did we cover it?
39:19Yeah. Three and a couple of bonus names. Jonah Coleman takedown on May 28th.
39:23Why not? Yeah. I even had one that was super late, but maybe we'll save that for some, some wide receiver sleeper shows in the future.
39:31By the way, you're seeing these new looks. Uh, we have some, let's say cool pages and tools on the way, uh, in a couple of weeks here.
39:39So these are little teas whenever you're seeing these new visuals.
39:42Um, and in the near future, maybe you'll be able to access them as well.
39:46That does it. I'll be back next week with a couple of episodes, uh, hopefully crossing your fingers on an AJ Brown trade finally.
39:53So our long serving nightmare can be over, uh, the trade that was happening a month ago can finally happen.
39:58What's up? I almost put AJ Brown and McKay lemon on this list.
40:02I was like, we're next week. We'll probably have all that covered.
40:06So, uh, yeah, again, also in my thought was Devante Smith being drafted after AJ Brown right now was a part of that.
40:12But, uh, you know, I landed on the four that I did.
40:15All right. That does it again. Shout out to all of you that watch these episodes and hit subscribe.
40:21You know, there's a portion who watches and just goes on with their day, but we love, we love the ones that for free hit that subscribe button.
40:29And also, uh, leave us a thumbs up because the more that people do that, then the more this video will be
40:35put in front of other people's faces. So shout out to weaves and Mosho behind the scenes and hanging in front of the camera up the Villa.
40:43Everyone will talk to y'all soon. See ya.
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