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0:41Look, we can spend an entire summer talking about 300 players.
0:44We absolutely will on this channel. Hit subscribe by the way, but Hayden, when you whittle it down and you're on the
0:51clock, your fantasy football draft comes down to picking player A versus player B.
0:55And that decision can really define your entire fantasy season.
0:58So that's what today's show is all about a round by round.
1:02This player versus that player battle to the death.
1:04Yep. Rounds three through round seven is kind of the range we're talking about.
1:08A really important range. We're gonna have videos about the first and second round in entirety.
1:13So this next range, I like to go player by player here.
1:17And you really kind of group these players together like in your head.
1:21And when you sit there and actually make your notes all the way through, I came out with like pretty clear winners
1:27and losers for each one of these categories. Even though going into this, I'd had them back to back my own rankings.
1:34Yeah. The top 24 is kind of stable all summer.
1:36Again, we will do re-rankings of those first rounds.
1:39Those are some of your favorite videos all summer long.
1:42But I would say like this rounds three through seven is where we can differ most from ADP.
1:47We can gain the most advantage versus where players are drafted to.
1:51So let's dive into the first one. We're going to start off in that third round.
1:56Talk about two running backs here. Brees Hall, who's the fifth pick of the third round versus Travis Etienne, who's the seventh pick of the third round.
2:04Which one are you taking? I love Travis Etienne.
2:06I bumped him up after doing all the research here.
2:09He's cleared 1,300 total yards in three of his four seasons.
2:13His loneliness was when he was unhealthy. He had coach Peterson.
2:16I think this is the best environment he's ever been in for fantasy points.
2:20Coach Kellen Moore is very functional. He's been that way at every single one of his stops.
2:25Tyler Shuck looks like an emerging quarterback. The Saints were first in neutral pace last season.
2:30They couldn't create explosives, but in comes a first round wide receiver.
2:33In comes a veteran guard. Both of their tackles look awesome.
2:37Shuck going into the second year. And then we obviously know when he's playing behind a good offensive line, which he rarely
2:43has in his career, he can rip off the explosives.
2:46I would say the Saints offensive line is pretty good.
2:49So there's going to be almost no competition behind him.
2:52I'm assuming Alvin Kamara is going to retire or get released, or he's just Alvin Kamara from last year, which was one
2:58of the most ineffective rushers out there. It's Devin Neal, Ty Chandler, Kendry Miller, Audrick Esme behind him.
3:04Last year, he was the RB11 on the RB14 usage.
3:07I think that this 874 rushing yards in the pick and lobby is too low.
3:11I think that he has a chance to be a top 12 fantasy running back this season.
3:16Yeah. Some of the Alvin Kamara quotes coming out of Saints offseason activities are kind of even questioning if he even exists on that roster at this moment.
3:25And we'll see what happens the rest of the summer.
3:27Like you pointed out, there's just one, I would say, negative spot on that offensive line.
3:32And it's Cesar Ruiz at right guard. The rest are really good players, first round tackles, and then David Edwards, who they
3:39signed from the Buffalo Bills, who start at left guard from them.
3:42And the number one point that you bring up, I mean, Kelly Moore's offenses, it doesn't matter where he goes, LA, Dallas,
3:49Philadelphia, and here at the Saints, they will be top three in place no matter what.
3:54And that's going to carry over once again. So, you know, we had two drastically different past two seasons here from Travis H.
4:00And Travis H and Josh Travis H and running back 41 and points per game in 2024 versus running back 10 and points per game in 2025.
4:08My only two concerns here. One, he did not rush for 100 yards in a game after week four of last season.
4:15That's coming from a Liam Cohen offense, which we know, and we'll talk about other running backs that he has coached.
4:21It's just fantastic in rushing departments. And this is from our buddy, Ryan Heath.
4:25We look at expected fancy points per game by play callers to running backs.
4:29Kellen Moore actually ranks 30th over the last few seasons.
4:32So was that a talent deficiency thing? And did they change that by going out and getting Travis H and basically the first day of free?
4:40Yeah, I'd like to see that number without last season when the Saints, I mean, they just gave up running the ball as they should.
4:47But yeah, I think that fast paced offense and you have some explosives with H and I think it's just going to be pretty obvious that it's him.
4:56I will also note this there. The Saints are 24th in projected points according to the betting markets this year.
5:02That feels too low. Like they were pretty much like that last season.
5:05And I think it's going to go up from there.
5:08We're definitely going to do a show on projected points for each of these offenses.
5:13Talk about the top 10 and pick out some of our favorites that will over underperform, because as we talk about every
5:19single offseason, that's where you can find early the draft gems in your fantasy league.
5:24Hey, I'm going to go against you. I'm going to pick Brees Hall for this one.
5:29Look, running back nine in points per game coming off that knee injury in 2023.
5:33That's what we've been chasing over the last two years.
5:36But still, I mean, he's been running back 21 in points per game, running back 18 the year before that.
5:42And he's played in bad offenses and still 1300 total yards in three straight seasons.
5:46So to me, yards have never been the problem for Brees Hall.
5:50It's just about touchdowns and touchdowns happen more often when you're on better systems and better offenses.
5:55I think from a talent perspective, Hayden, this is the most talented offense that he has been a part of.
6:01Whatever you think about Geno Smith, he is better than what he's had in recent past.
6:06Obviously, the pass catchers, wide receivers, and namely the offensive line investment that this team has.
6:10So four, five, five rushing scores over the last three years, just one receiving touchdown last year.
6:15Unfortunately, as you brought up, the Jets are predicted for the second fewest amount of points this year per game at 18.6.
6:22But call me crazy. I just have a bit of optimism that Brees Hall, this is going to be the platform that
6:28he finally gets to showcase the talent and the rusher that he is like we saw back in 2023.
6:34I'm fine with his ADP. I got him ranked 30th.
6:37His ADP is at 30th overall. That point, 18.6, is actually higher than what it was this last year.
6:43So I do agree. It should be better than last year.
6:46But last year was pretty tough. The Jets were 29th in scoring.
6:49He was the RB22 on an RB20 per game finish.
6:52I will note that there were some games with Brady Cook.
6:56And if you remove those games, he was the RB17, which makes some sense there.
7:00So that's kind of where I have him ranked, kind of in the RB17, RB18 range.
7:05The Frank Reich stuff really makes me nervous. He was fired midseason in 2022, fired midseason in 2023.
7:10He sat out in 2024. Then it was the interim head coach at Stanford.
7:14Didn't even make that entire season go either. So I agree.
7:17This should be one of the best spots of his career.
7:21He's kind of been a tease for us. And we have to make sure that Braylon Allen's not going to go inside
7:27the five-yard line and steal some carries. I couldn't believe it.
7:30He had four inside the five-yard line carries last year at Brees Hall the entire season.
7:35That's wild. Yeah, look, there's the Isaiah Davis, Brylon Allen conversation of last offseason.
7:39Those have seemed quieter this offseason. And Brees Hall, despite the very, I would say, less cryptic post that he's had about
7:46being a New York Jet, now has totally changed after he was tagged and now has signed a long-term extension on top of it.
7:53So if he's healthy, if he's happy, I'm expecting fantasy points to come from it.
7:57Okay, what about this part? The receiving totals, as a prospect, when he was really young, there was the upside that Brees
8:04Hall was going to catch 80 passes per season.
8:07And then last season, the entire offseason was all about Brees Hall is going to catch all these passes.
8:12He's the focal point of our receiving game. It just never materialized.
8:16Do you think Frank Reich is going to do something about that?
8:19Do you think it's an Aaron Glenn thing? Was that just Justin Fields?
8:23For him to get back into the top 12 conversation, he's got to catch more passes because the Jets offense is just
8:30not going to be very good, even if we're expecting it to get a little bit better.
8:35What are the odds Brees Hall goes back to the upside case where he could be one of the better receiving backs in the league?
8:42Yeah, and receiving touchdowns matter too. I mentioned he had one receiving touchdown last year.
8:47He had three and four prior to that. So that's a jump in that department.
8:51You just have to get 10, 11, 12 touchdowns to really be a difference maker.
8:55If you get up to 13, then that's a major fantasy asset.
8:59And just from an environmental perspective, that hasn't been the case with the Jets.
9:03And then from a projected team point standpoint, that is not projected to be that this year either.
9:08So a bit concerning from those fronts. But at the end of the day, while both these backfields, I think, are kind
9:15of barren behind their starters, I actually think that Brees Hall is a better talent than Travis Achan.
9:20But at the same time, you can easily point to the Kellen Moore and Saints factor of having Achan ahead of him too.
9:27Yep. Yeah, we were not. We were unhelpful. Split the decision there and they're back to back in ADP.
9:33All right. Maybe we'll agree on this next one.
9:35Let's go to the round four wide receivers. And Zay Flowers here, the second pick of the fourth round compared to Garrett
9:42Wilson right after as a third pick of the fourth run.
9:45Which one are you taking? I'm going to go with Garrett Wilson here.
9:49I'm still very concerned about Frank Reich. But I do think that Garrett Wilson has established himself as one of the better
9:56wide receivers in the NFL, despite having run first quarterbacks or can't throw quarterbacks out there.
10:00And I think that Geno Smith, as concerning as his tape was last year when he was throwing those interceptions, I do
10:07think he can throw the football and get some receiving production if they're losing games in the back half.
10:12I also wanted to mention that I think that the combination of Adnan Mitchell, Omar Cooper Jr., Kenyon Sadiq, I think that's kind of overrated.
10:20I'm just not expecting a whole bunch from rookies, even though they're first rounders.
10:24I didn't love either one of those profiles. So I do think that in terms of target share, I wouldn't be surprised
10:30if Garrett Wilson just does it again. He had 27% target share from 2024 and 2025.
10:35He was a fantasy wide receiver, too, over that stretch.
10:38Even with more, quote-unquote, target competition, I still think that Garrett Wilson is just light years better than everyone else on this offense.
10:45So to your point with Brees Hall, I'm expecting Geno Smith to just make this offense look functional.
10:50And I think that's going to help Garrett Wilson as much as it will with Brees Hall.
10:55I'm also taking Garrett Wilson, so we're on the same side here.
10:59I don't want to make it sound like this is an anti-Zay Flowers take, but I have more to say on why
11:05I wouldn't take Zay Flowers ahead of Garrett Wilson and why I would take Garrett Wilson ahead of Zay Flowers, if that makes sense.
11:12Like, for example, last season, Zay Flowers finished overall, if we look at total points, which I do not when I'm looking
11:19at these players, and I'll say why, Zay Flowers finishes the wide receiver 12th in total points.
11:24But then if you looked in per-game numbers, Garrett Wilson actually finished ahead of Zay Flowers in that department.
11:30And so per-game metrics to me, and we get a lot of comments about this, right?
11:34Because I think a lot of the industry and a lot of people that play fantasy football just look at, well, how
11:41many points total did you accumulate out there? And that's your standing in terms of fantasy assets.
11:46But to me, per-game metrics kind of give a better week-to-week decision-making barometer than full-season stuff because if you start 17 games
11:52and you get kind of not average production per se, but good production, then that volume can look better at the end
11:59of the season compared to someone who missed some games, yes, but made a bigger impact when they were available in your starting lineup.
12:06And that's what win you weeks. That's what gets you an extra two, three, four fantasy points per contest.
12:12And then the other point that I've always struggled here was Zay Flowers, who is a really talented football player and a
12:18really good fit on this Ravens offense, is that he's just never been a condensed field asset for them.
12:24He had 10 red zone targets this past season.
12:26That's fewer than Malik Washington had. That's fewer than Olamide Zaccheaus had.
12:30And if you compare that to Garrett Wilson, he had 23 red zone targets back in 2024.
12:35Zay Flowers' highest number is 13, I believe. So that's also still playing with Lamar Jackson for the vast majority of that
12:42time compared to whoever is throwing passes to Garrett Wilson.
12:45So if I'm looking for like real touchdown upside, which in half PPR matters the most, then I just think Garrett Wilson
12:51is a better asset than Zay Flowers there. Zay Flowers' red zone numbers are out of control.
12:56It's a 15.7% target share over the last two seasons inside the red zone, outside the red zone at that 28%.
13:02I mean, 13% decrease. And that's just pretty much because he's what, 5'8", 183 pounds.
13:07I will note with Zay Flowers, this is looking like it could be his best season.
13:11Like last year was already career highs and receptions and yards per game.
13:15Lamar Jackson wasn't healthy. And it was also way worse than he typically is like on film, even when he came back from injury.
13:22Mark Andrews, I don't think we're going to like see him like bounce back.
13:27I think he's just aging. They're still not doing much at wide receiver.
13:30Like we'll see about the two rookies, but I'm not expecting a whole lot from them.
13:35And then there's always the chance if Derrick Henry goes down, that they're going to pass the ball more.
13:41Or that with Declan Doyle taking over, that this offense could pass the ball more, could play a little bit faster just
13:47because they've been so low out there. So I don't dislike Zay Flowers.
13:51We have the same exact read on it. Like he was more likely to score eight, nine touchdowns this year.
13:57I do think that's still Garrett Wilson, even though the offense is a lot better.
14:01If Zay Flowers does catch that many touchdowns, then he's going to be a total smash here.
14:06So after doing notes on both these guys, I feel totally fine with their ADPs at where they are.
14:12I just am leaning towards Garrett Wilson, perhaps being more of a volume hog and probably an offense.
14:17It's going to pass the ball more times. Don't get me wrong.
14:21Like Zay Flowers is a better fancy asset than Garrett Wilson was last year.
14:25We ranked him higher. We drafted him higher. But I just wanted to have that conversation about total points versus per game
14:32stuff, because again, a lot of the total point scores were guys who were good at the game, but also just played
14:3817 games versus if you knew they're going to miss a game, Hayden, you and I talk about this every single week.
14:45Then you can just substitute in someone else in that spot.
14:48And the per game metrics is always what I look at when I'm talking about finishes from the previous year.
14:54Last note for Zay Flowers with Lamar Jackson active.
14:57He was half PPR's wide receiver 10 on a per game basis, 29% target share.
15:01So both of these guys have upside versus where they currently are at wide receiver 17, wide receiver 18.
15:07Like easy, easily. Either one of these guys can finish the wide receiver nine this year.
15:11I think round four is the most interesting round in fantasy football right now.
15:15I mean, it begins with T-Mac. Then it goes to Zay and Garrett Wilson that we talked about.
15:21You get the Luther Burden stuff from last year.
15:23Luther Burden's in this one. And that brings us to our next duo that we're going to discuss here.
15:29The round four running backs and Cam Skadaboo, who's the seventh pick of the fourth round.
15:34And then Bucky Irving one spot after. We got some Bucky Irving news.
15:38Let's talk about that. But which one, just overall, are you selecting earlier?
15:41It was Cam Skadaboo for me going into this.
15:44And then after doing all the notes, it was very clearly Cam Skadaboo.
15:48It's the same exact running back rotation as it was this past season.
15:52From week two before he dislocated his ankle, he was the RB9 and RB15 usage.
15:56He was top 10 in receptions per game. On top of that, it's a PPR, half PPR.
16:01It doesn't really matter. He's a big dude. He's going to be the goal line back.
16:06And then we had Jackson Dart talk about it that, quote, we're just going to keep giving it to Cam Skadaboo until they can stop it.
16:14That's from hanging around Harbaugh through this offseason. So Malik Nabors has some injury concerns early on this season.
16:19Cam Skadaboo seems like he's on track for week one.
16:22We can get into the dislocated ankle and the history of that.
16:26I project him to start week one, not get quite as much volume, not be quite as explosive as he was as a rookie.
16:33And still, his price tag versus where he was finishing and ranking last year, it's a pretty steep discount.
16:39So we'll track the injury news. But for right now, I'm buying.
16:42Let's talk Cam Skadaboo some more. Okay. 90, 104, 110, and 94 yards.
16:46And there's four full games out there. But I also don't want to look over this injury, like dislocated his right ankle,
16:53fractured his fibula, ruptured his deltoid ligament. Again, I'm going to bring up our buddy Ryan Heath over at Fantasy Points.
16:59He's going to join the show sometime this summer.
17:01It's always a fantastic episode. He went through, you know, four fancy assets over the last few years that also suffered this fractured fibula.
17:09Anywhere from Tony Pollard to Mark Andrews to Chris Godwin to Isaiah Bacheco all declined their fancy points per opportunity in the next season.
17:16And it wasn't just a small drop down. It was a massive drop down.
17:20And also with the Giants and just through the media, how they operated, reportedly were interested in Ken Walker, Travis Achan, and Jeremiah Love.
17:27They landed on none of them. And they added nothing to that running back room.
17:31So on paper, that makes me want to buy into Cam Skadaboo.
17:35But Hayden, to answer the question of who I'd want between Skadaboo and Bucky Irving, the answer is neither.
17:40Like, I want to draft Ladd McConkie in this round.
17:43And if he's off the board, then I'm going to draft Colson Loveland.
17:47And that's how I'm going to operate here in round four.
17:51I think it's totally fine. I love Colson Loveland, Ladd McConkie, all these wide receivers.
17:55I think with Cam Skadaboo, we are also adding Francis Maunoa, a blocking guard to the equation.
18:00This team could not block well inside the red area.
18:03And Jackson Dart going into his second season. So there's like some upside here where the Giants offense goes from one of
18:09the worst last year to pretty functional. I think that would kind of offset some of the dislocated ankle stuff.
18:15And it is a small sample size of this type of injury that we're going off of.
18:20Like you said, though, it's like four for four.
18:23That's been pretty bad. So I would be pretty surprised if he's a fantasy RB1.
18:28But that's what he was for a big chunk of September and October last year.
18:32Okay, let's talk Bucky Irving on this. So first, we got word at OTAs that opened today for the Buccaneers that Bucky Irving was not there.
18:40That is not a surprise. He has not been cleared from his offseason shoulder surgery.
18:44The injury that he suffered last year, missed a handful of games along with an ankle, did play through it a little
18:51bit towards the end of last year. But again, we got the offseason shoulder surgery.
18:55So that was one report. And then we got a double down here from head coach Todd Bowles, who, you know, is
19:02not very extravagant in front of the microphone. But he simply put that Bucky Irving is expected to return sometime, quote, during summer or fall.
19:09Bucky is never incognito, but he's coming along fine.
19:12He's working out and rough. We expect him sometime back in the summer or fall.
19:16And, you know, we look forward to him when he gets back.
19:20Your instant reaction is what? Not good. He just makes me nervous because he's 5'10", 195 pounds.
19:25Last year was a really bad season for him.
19:27I thought as a rookie, he looked like one of the best running backs in the NFL.
19:32I don't think that's an exaggeration. The numbers backed that up.
19:36And then last year, out of 66 qualifying running backs, he was 65th in rush yards over expected.
19:41And then 64th in EPA per carry. Like only Alvin Kamara was basically worse than he was.
19:46And then he had the injuries. It was a foot injury.
19:49And then after a couple weeks of him not returning, Adam Schefter reports, it's actually the shoulder injury that's the bigger deal.
19:56And it really, really delayed it from week four all the way to week 13.
20:00And then when he came back from week 13, he was not getting the goal line carries.
20:05Like that went to Sean Tucker. They were still using Rashad White.
20:09And they just upgraded Rashad White up to Kenny Gainwell this offseason.
20:12Sean Tucker is still the biggest guy in the backfield over there.
20:16And then he had to have a follow-up surgery.
20:19And he's still not back yet. So this one's making me pretty nervous.
20:22I dropped him down to about 59th overall. I think that he's a flex play at this point.
20:28And I just think that that RB11 stretch as a rookie from week six all the way through, I think that's in the rear view.
20:35That's a Liam Cohen ago. That's shoulder injuries ago.
20:38And I just think the Bucs offense right now does not project nearly as well as it did during that sense.
20:44I mean, I went back and watched Bucky Irving.
20:47And I still think he has the juice. Like he still forces missed tackles.
20:51He still attacks the edges of defenders and they can be 100 pounds heavier than him near the line of scrimmage.
20:57And, you know, he still breaks that contact. I still think he's a really good player.
21:02I am just really nervous about how he's being not pigeonholed, but viewed by play callers ever since the Liam Cohen stuff during his rookie season.
21:09I mean, zero touches inside of the five-yard line last season and played just two snaps in that area of the field.
21:16His nine rushing touchdowns in the NFL, six of them have been six yards or less.
21:21And so if he's not getting those carries six yards or less, then the touchdown market is just going to be extremely, extremely negative for him.
21:28And on top of that, you would think some of his size is going to be out there in pure passing situations.
21:35That also hasn't been the case. Like that has previously gone to Rashad White and almost certainly that'll go to Kenny Gainwell.
21:41So even before missing OTAs today because of surgery and Todd Bowles' comments, there are very easy factors to poke holes in
21:48Bucky Irving's just outlook from, you know, a being on the field standpoint.
21:52Despite how much I really do like him as a runner and how much I believe in this offensive line as being
21:58a potential top five or top three unit in the league.
22:02Yeah, offensive line's got to stay healthy. That was a problem last year.
22:05Baker's got to play better. That was a problem this last year.
22:09And then if you kind of just like take the average of that, the Bucks right now, 17th in projected points this
22:15season when Bucky Irving was balling out and that Liam Cohn offense and what they were top five for a lot of that season.
22:23So I do think that the Kenny Gainwell stuff, I don't think it's a bit like, I think they're extremely serious about this game.
22:30$10 million guaranteed $7 million per season over the next two years.
22:33Like that's like real money in the running back market out there.
22:37So I can see this being a three-way committee where Bucky Irving's like the foundation back.
22:41Sean Tucker's the goal line back. And then Kenny Gainwell does not come off the field in any of the passing situations.
22:48Your offense got to be really sweet and you got to be really good to kind of overcome a three-way committee right now.
22:55So I think the sixth round somewhere around there, I feel comfortable with them.
22:59But like someone like Basial Tootin to me, I think that his pathway to completely taking over his backfield is clearer to me at this point.
23:07Same thing with DeAndre Swift. We'll get to some of these guys in a minute here.
23:11So I moved him down that full tier with the news that he might miss the next couple of months here.
23:18Yeah. During and after his rookie season, the Bucks just absolutely loved Bucky Irving.
23:22Like Jason Light talks about how he's the first one in, last one out, all that type of stuff.
23:27But then if you read between the lines during last season, when he dealt with all these injuries, something was up behind the scenes.
23:34Like something mentally was not correct. And they've talked about that.
23:38And that's unfortunate. Like it seems like he took it really hard that he couldn't be out there and playing football because
23:44that's what he does for a living. That's where he's being used to during his time at Oregon and obviously in the NFL.
23:51Hopefully it doesn't carry over into this season. Because I think Bucky can still be sensational.
23:56But at the same time, we also have to remember that Zach Robinson was part of the group that also gave Tyler
24:02Algier a bunch of goal line touches ahead of B.
24:05John Robinson. So it's not out of the ordinary that that could go to Sean Tucker or Kenny Gainwell on top of it.
24:12Underdog projections right now. Pickham lobby 5.5 rushing touchdowns for Bucky Irving.
24:16Like fourth round, 5.5 rushing touchdowns. That's that's tough to sell.
24:19Yeah. You mentioned that Bucky Irving is not the biggest boy in the backfield.
24:23Wasn't the biggest boy in the backfield last year?
24:26It certainly was. And that was the guy that you wanted to draft.
24:30Yeah. By the way, we're about 10 followers short on Instagram of hitting our next milestone.
24:34We'll have an instant reaction video to all the Bucky Irving injury news on there.
24:39So whenever something major breaks in the fantasy landscape or you just want clips from this episode, go and follow us on
24:45that social handle and get us over the hump this year.
24:48Again, my thoughts, if you're stuck in the middle of round four, I want Ladd, Luther Burden or Colson Loveland.
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25:58Thank you, HIMSS, for sponsoring the show. Next, let's talk round five wide receivers.
26:02Interesting debate here. Two veterans of the game. The third pick of the fifth round, that is Terry McLaurin of the Washington Commanders.
26:09One pick after that is Devontae Adams. One guy had a down 2025 holdout.
26:13We have seen how, you know, that impacts the rest of the season.
26:17Quarterbacks got banged up. He got banged up versus Devontae Adams, who, you know, led all wide receivers in receiving touchdowns.
26:23So which two of these guys do you want to draft more?
26:27I view them very similarly. I do not have them far apart after doing all of my notes here.
26:32I am leaning towards Terry McLaurin. He's had 23 games with Jaden Daniels over the last two seasons.
26:38He's the wide receiver 14 on wide receiver 26 usage on a per game basis.
26:42That's been full PPR and a half. PPR is even better than that.
26:46He's a touchdown magnet. And since he's had a lot of that production, the Commanders have lost Debo Samuel and Zach Ertz.
26:52They replaced him with Chigakwonkwo. Antonio Williams, who I kind of like, but he's a third round slot Z receiver.
26:58And then maybe Brandon Ayuk like on August 1st, if he wants to show up and the 49ers want to release him from being a hostage.
27:06So this looks like it should be a fantastic season for Terry McLaurin to have a huge target share.
27:12And I think that Jaden Daniels should bounce back this next season as well.
27:16They have both their tackle spots kind of figured out.
27:19I don't like that they lost their center, but in general, the Commanders are 16th in projected points.
27:24And I think that that's kind of taking the average of if Jaden Daniels misses times versus stays healthy because they were
27:31top 10 in points when he was a freaking rookie out there.
27:34So looking at it, 949 receiving yards in the pick and lobby.
27:38Devontae Adams is just under 800. I do think that touchdowns probably will go towards Devontae Adams.
27:43This remains pretty close to me. I don't mind either of them in the fifth round.
27:48I'm way, way, way on the side of Terry McLaurin here.
27:51And it's like a no contest for me. I'm going to have Terry McLaurin way ahead of where he's being drafted and ranked here among wide receivers.
27:59Again, you can kind of explain, I think, is 2025.
28:02The holdout, which is something we need to keep in mind with all of these wide receivers and quarterback relationships, as we've
28:08seen from, you know, the CD Lamb to the T Higgins to now the Terry McLaurin, the Brandon Iuke stuff too.
28:14Again, the quarterbacks got banged up. But what stands out to me is when David Blau took over as the team's play
28:21caller, literally his first quote was, how do we get Terry McLaurin 10 targets per game?
28:26And as you recite the depth chart, looking at it, it's quite easy to do.
28:30Yeah, really. Major, major questions. And so you and I talk about projected point totals and you put it well that they're projected for the 16th.
28:38The commanders are at around 23.3. Compare that to the Rams who are number one at 26 and a half.
28:44At the same time, the Rams do have other players that can get them fancy points.
28:48I mean, you look at the commanders. It's Jane Daniels.
28:51It's Terry McLaurin. The backfield's a question. The tight ends are a question.
28:55And all the other wide receivers are a question.
28:58So are you damn right that I'm listening to coach speak here in May and June?
29:03A hundred percent. I am an offense that's going to take and pull some strings from the Ben Johnson schematics that we've seen.
29:10A hundred percent. I think Terry McLaurin, who we have seen graduate from kind of a big play downfield artist to also
29:16being a real asset inside the 10 and inside the 20 yard line.
29:20I just think this offense is going to run through Terry in the passing game.
29:24Yeah, I missed that quote. I'm going to add that to my blurb here.
29:28That's a really good one. I find this entire tier pretty flat.
29:32Yeah, I think that goes like all the way up to like T Higgins, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson.
29:37I think it's like all the way up there.
29:40Could Terry McLaurin match those receivers that I just named?
29:43I think absolutely is the case. And that's to me the reason why I want to be drafting Travis HN up there
29:49and then getting my wide receivers kind of in this territory just because I feel like they're pretty flat in general.
29:56Like I think I just mentioned that Garrett Wilson is like just over a thousand yards.
30:00Terry McLaurin's at freaking nine hundred and fifty here.
30:03So I think I'm pretty flat here to kind of target right now.
30:07Let's talk about Devante Adams a little bit more.
30:10Don't get me wrong. 14 touchdowns is incredible. Nine of those were four yards or less.
30:14I watched them all researching for this. I swear all of them, maybe not one, but all of them were bailed running place.
30:21And that can go here or there. Like, yeah, if you leave an isolated coverage, we saw it with Aaron Rodgers.
30:27We saw it with Matthew Stafford. Stafford did the same thing with Odell Beckham back in the day that, oh, you're going to give me that look.
30:35I'm going to trust the back shoulders, the jump balls, the quick slants, all that type of stuff.
30:41But at the same time, that wasn't the play that was called.
30:44And that can easily shift in the opposite direction.
30:47He was the wide receiver 31 in yards per game.
30:50And I can't get out of my head that Sean McVay was open and honest with everyone that, hey, if we were
30:56a little bit more in on this A.J. Brown trade that's coming up here that, hey, Devante, we would have gotten rid of you.
31:03Like we were looking to trade you if that was the case, if we could bring in A.J.
31:09Brown. So in the back of my mind, I'm wondering if Sean McVay has kind of already seen a decline here from the 34 year old Devante Adams.
31:17And just a pure series of series impact, like from a yards perspective, moving the chains.
31:22And no doubt in my mind, he can still be a huge asset when we get to a condensed field.
31:28But I just think like the R word, the regression word might hit Devante Adams more than any other player in the league this season.
31:35Yeah. 0.76 touchdowns per game inside the 20 yard line on a 27% target share.
31:40Like that's like in his own category. 28 in zone targets.
31:43That might be like the most ever we've ever seen.
31:46Yeah, it's really it's really ridiculous. And then outside of the red zone, 18% target share, 0% screen rate share on that.
31:52And then his average depth of target outside the red zone was at 15.6 yards down the field.
31:58That was actually third highest. So what's happened in this offense is Puka Naku is going to get all the gimmies.
32:04They're going to run the ball plenty. And when they get down to the one or two yard line, they might throw it up to him.
32:12But otherwise, Devante Adams is more in a downfield boom bust role.
32:15And you kind of felt that last year. And maybe that's why he was tearing his hamstring every other week.
32:21But I view him more boom bust on a week to week basis nowadays than I ever did before.
32:27All that said, there is still a pathway for this thing to really pay off.
32:31Like what happens if Puka misses time? And then he's the one that stays healthy for a month of the season.
32:37We'll be ranking him as like the wide receiver six in a given week.
32:41The Rams are still projected for the most points, like you said.
32:45So I view him as I think the most boom bust wide receiver three in fantasy this year is Devante Adams.
32:51I went with Terry McLaurin. He feels a little bit safer.
32:54I do think that Devante Adams could reach a pretty crazy ceiling for this price tag.
32:59But I do think it is. We should factor in the hamstring.
33:03Matthew Stafford's back, his age, Matthew Stafford's age. And then those Sean McVay kind of quotes and kind of bump him down a tier.
33:10He's super volatile. That's wide receiver 25 and 26 on the board here.
33:14And yeah, we went through the depth chart of the Washington Commanders behind Puka Nakua and Devante Adams.
33:19It's not like there's much in terms of wide receivers for the Rams here.
33:23We're talking Xavier Smith, Kanata Mumfield. Obviously, Jordan Whittington has filled in for both on top of that.
33:28Instead of taking a wide receiver, you know, they drafted Ty Simpson, CU in 2028.
33:33And, you know, another tight end in Max Clare.
33:36So I even wonder if they're going to lean even more into this 13 personnel work.
33:40And if that's the case, then you would at least assume that Puka Nakua would be on the field versus Devante Adams.
33:47But who knows? They get weird. They get weird.
33:49And by the way, Puka has been very weird.
33:52That's putting it mildly over the last calendar year.
33:55Yeah, I can see him finishing as a wide receiver 10 this year.
33:59I don't think it's the most likely scenario by any means.
34:02I can see him as finishing as a wide receiver 42.
34:05I mean, the range of outcomes here for Devante Adams is really wide.
34:09Yeah. And look, we drafted a ton of Devante Adams this past season.
34:13A major part of it was the touchdown projection that you and I were on considerably.
34:18So I'm not going to say I've totally changed my tune and I'm totally out on Devante Adams.
34:23I'm just going to rank Terry McLaurin higher than the wide receiver 25 of what he's being drafted at this current moment.
34:29Okay, let's stay in round five. We've got two more scenarios here for you.
34:34The first pick of the fifth round is Dave Montgomery.
34:37The fifth pick is DeAndre Swift. Two former Lions running backs crossing in the night here.
34:41I don't want to derail you, Hayden, but quick question.
34:44Is it in the realm of possibility that these guys should be drafted ahead of the other running back names that we just talked about?
34:52And Cam Scadaboo and Bucky Irving. I have Bucky Irving after.
34:55I think Scadaboo is kind of right in the range and I'll be moving these guys up and down based off the Scadaboo injury.
35:02I think that DeAndre Swift seems extremely safe for this price tag.
35:06Last year, he was half PPRs running back 15 or running back 18 usage.
35:10The Bears were ninth in points per game. This year, Chicago's projected for number 10 scoring per game.
35:15I think there's a chance that that's even underselling it.
35:18If Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson take another step, they had to rotate their center because of an unexpected retirement.
35:24But for the most part, that offensive line looks really good again.
35:27And then I thought DeAndre Swift with Ben Johnson, he just looked like a little less chaotic.
35:32He was actually 10th in rushing success rate. I think a lot of that is because of the scheme and the offensive line and Ben Johnson.
35:40But Swift felt a little more consistent out there.
35:43So Kyle Menungai is going to be the secondary back behind him.
35:46But even when Menungai was out there for 30, 40% of the snaps, he was still an RB2.
35:52So I don't think that Menungai is just going to completely steal DeAndre Swift's job.
35:56It's a contract year. He's only 27 years old.
35:59I think that Swift's film has just gotten better every single year.
36:02And I'm not going to be fading this Chicago Bears offense this year.
36:06So to me, he's kind of being priced closer to his floor.
36:10I'm at 42nd overall. His ADP is 53rd overall.
36:12After doing the research on this, I just wanted to keep drafting him.
36:16I like both these running back picks. And I will rank them ahead of Bucky Irving and Cam Scadaboo when we unleash those.
36:23Yeah. Prior to last season, you know, you've been in the show with me for over five years at this point.
36:29I was not a DeAndre Swift guy. Every team that he was on, he was replaced.
36:34And those backfields greatly improved. But then we got to week six of last year.
36:39He was running back nine after that week five by for the rest of the season.
36:43Running back nine in points per game. And if you looked at it and you watch like we did on stats versus
36:50film, it's because Ben Johnson and this offense looked at which runs were successful for which types of runners that they had.
36:56And they really figured it out. I mean, they focused in on those and that allowed DeAndre Swift to have the highest
37:03yards per touch since the 2022 season for him.
37:05And he produced a run of 10 or more yards on 13 and a half percent of his runs, which ranks sixth in the league.
37:13That's from the great Rich Rebar. So look, DeAndre Swift.
37:16No one's ever like a swift guy anymore. This is exactly where I want him in.
37:21It's the same exact backfield that we got last year in Mononga and DeAndre Swift.
37:25And sure, didn't Mononga get more playing time as a season went along?
37:29A hundred percent. And DeAndre Swift didn't play over 60 percent of snaps outside of one game after that bye week.
37:35At the same time, you can still play less than 60 percent of snaps and still finishes the running back nine points
37:42per game if your offense is freaking awesome. And I still expect the Chicago Bears offense to be freaking awesome.
37:47Yeah, I mean, the scheme is like you have Jonah Jackson at right guard, Darnell Wright at right tackle, just run right behind them.
37:55And like those guys are just pushing guys out of the way.
37:58So he just feels very insulated here. I'm still a fan of like Kyle Mononga at his price tag, too.
38:04If one of the other guys gets injured, the other ones would be projected top 12 on a week to week basis.
38:11So I thought this to me was clearly DeAndre Swift over David Montgomery.
38:14I think Montgomery is closer to fine. I have more concerns that Montgomery kind of just falls off of a cliff more so than DeAndre Swift.
38:22David Montgomery was like pretty efficient last year, but the offensive line difference between the Lions versus the Texans is pretty drastic.
38:29And I think that Woody Marks is not going to completely go away, at least on passing situations.
38:34And I just don't think that the Texans offensive line and scheme is dialed into a point where I'm expecting like CJ
38:40Stroud to take his game to like the next level.
38:43So he's only got five and a half rushing touchdowns in the pick and lobby right now.
38:48That feels pretty high for the 49th overall pick.
38:51So I'm closer into like the back half of this round where I had DeAndre Swift at the front half of the
38:58round before it bears projected for the 10th most points per game this year at 24.5.
39:02The Texans are down at 19, but Hey, and it goes back to the conversation that we had in the quarterback ranking
39:09show that they're actually favored in 13 games this season, but they're projected for the 19 most points.
39:14And that is the case where your defense is so good that you just don't have to score as much on offense
39:21because everyone else, you know, the commanders, for example, are projected for the 16th most points or three ahead yet.
39:27They're favored in just five games so far right now on Dave Montgomery.
39:30This is your traditional three, four years ago, like running back dead zone profile in that he's not really flashy anymore.
39:37He's been around the block quite a few times yet.
39:40We are just imparting this massive workload on him and an offense that we do like.
39:44Uh, and we know that if it's, everything is a volume based draft pick and round five, that can crumble for like
39:51a whole bunch of reasons for one. Like if the Texans offensive lines investments don't pay off, then he's going to be
39:57a, you know, volatile touchdown dependent pick. Now, if they do pay off, then he's going to be an extremely solid selection
40:04because you would expect him to again, see the vast majority of the high value touches in terms of touchdown scoring opportunities.
40:10The Texans were 29th in red zone touchdown rate last season, despite being 18th and red zone drives.
40:16And Woody marks led that team with 44% of red zone carries and he scored just two overall scores.
40:21So if like this team is just better, the offensive line and how they've worked at gels, uh, you can see Dave
40:28Montgomery having eight rushing scores, I think inside of the 15 yard line this year.
40:32I still think that would just make him the running back 15 is like kind of like to me his upside case.
40:39I didn't look at the names after him, like Deandre Swift, Quintra Jenkins, uh, Jadarian price, facial two.
40:44Those are all young guys. I think have a chance to, to pop off or in Deandre Swift's case, just a better offense in general.
40:52And I was kind of looking at it. Like Chiba Hubbard's goes 20 picks after David Montgomery right now, like functionally, what really is the difference?
40:59But between those guys, I still understand like why David Montgomery is up, uh, in the beginning part of this first round,
41:06especially like on underdog where everybody wants the upside appeals.
41:09I just think that David Montgomery's like, he's not gonna have a bunch of training camp buzz.
41:14Right. I think that a lot of the guys kind of going after him.
41:18Like I would guess tootin is going to go ahead of David Montgomery when we're drafting on labor day out here.
41:24So yeah. Do you understand me? He's being selected Montgomery is, is the running back 22.
41:29And as you said, for a platform that loves to draft for upside in year one and year two guys, uh, Quinn,
41:35Sean Jenkins going as running back 24, Jadarian price going as running back 25.
41:40Uh, and then Basial tootin going as running back 26.
41:42So it's a fascinating conversation. All right, let's close this thing out with a wide receiver duo in round seven.
41:48And that brings us to Parker Washington. Who's the second pick of the seventh round wide receiver 36.
41:54Then going down the 10th pick of the seventh round is Jane Reed as wide receiver 39.
41:59Uh, the reason I wanted to package these two guys together, Hayden is this is the battle of the three wide receiver sets in the same round.
42:07Uh, and ones that, you know, have gone through, let's say interesting, uh, career progressions so far.
42:12So what do you have to say about either Jane Reed or Parker Washington?
42:16I have Parker Washington for now. I do want to spend a lot more time watching all of his routes because it
42:22was such a fascinating season from him. So we'll have to get back to Parker Washington more in depth later on the
42:29summer, but from week seven on he was PPR is wide receiver 18 on wide receiver 15 usage.
42:34He got there on a 21% target share. That was the wide receiver 21 over that span.
42:39That was a full tier above Brian Thomas, a full tier above Jacoby Myers.
42:43He's also 24 years old comes from Penn state.
42:46And when I was watching him last season, he was routing up everybody.
42:50I mean, that was like inside the slot. It was on the outside on occasion as well.
42:55He made made a couple of acrobatic grabs on top of it.
42:59There was no part of his game where I was like, Oh, he's busted coverage.
43:03He's just like wide open. So I've, I'm anticipating when I do go back in there and just like focus on him
43:09this off season, I will have even more positive things to say.
43:13And I think that Jane and Reed, unfortunately he seems more typecasted into his very specific role in a balanced offense.
43:19I can at least dream that Liam Cohen views Parker Washington differently, or it's just a more pass heavy offense in general.
43:26So if both of these guys are good, I'm just going to go with Jacksonville over green Bay.
43:31It might be because of, you know, how he came into the NFL and also just not being very productive in his first two years.
43:38But Parker Washington is one of the most, I think, difficult players to get a hold of in terms of how does
43:45he fit in the wider seat room? Because as you said, if you look at week 16, you know, scoring 23 and
43:52a half fancy points, 17, 15 week 18, 17.2, and they get in the playoffs and it's 20 fancy points.
43:57Balled out. Yeah. I mean, the final four games, including the playoffs were outstanding.
44:02And then you go and watch the tape. The first two catches versus the Cincinnati Bengals in the second game of the
44:08season, like really encapsulate who he is. The first one, there's a motion of another wide receiver.
44:13It places Parker Washington in this lot, the cornerback on the out route undercuts this outside breaking route.
44:18The ball is thrown high, still giving him a chance.
44:21And he dunks on the corner, like at his size at five, 10, 204 pounds.
44:26He has the athleticism and the hands to play big.
44:29And then his second catch full speed motion into the slot at the snap crossing route, his athleticism pops.
44:34You gain like 39 yards on it. And to me, you've seen the refinement grow each time he gets more and more and more opportunities.
44:42So again, if you want to dream, if you put the two names on the board or just watching wide receiver tape
44:48and everything's blacked out, I think you can make the case that Parker Washington like might be a better wide receiver than Jane Reed at this point.
44:56I think you could also like question, Hey, if we look back in the 2026 season and Parker Washington as a better wide receiver than Brian Thomas Jr.
45:05Is that's also a possibility based on what Brian Thomas Jr.
45:08showed last year at the same time, the other half of your brain says, okay, the wide receiver depth chart, Jacoby Myers isn't coming off the field.
45:16Then you have Brian Thomas Jr. Who was excellent production during his rookie season and brings things to the table that Parker Washington doesn't.
45:23And then this Travis Hunter wide receiver stuff that you and I really like still will not die in terms of the
45:29media narrative and how to fit him into the offense.
45:32And so if that's the case and there's a lot to go around now compared to the Packers wide receiver room, which
45:39really feels like it's just a trio at this point.
45:42Finally, after about five seasons of doing this. Yeah, it is really crazy to look at it.
45:47Like the Parker Washington was the wide receiver two over his last four games of the season.
45:52And then Jaden Reed was the wide receiver 43.
45:55So like on the most recent sample size, it's, it's truly not even close.
45:59I think it's a good point though, because we're going to have a very consolidated receiving group in green Bay.
46:05Now that Don Tavian Wicks is gone. Romeo Dobbs is gone.
46:08And then Tucker crafts also coming off of an injury.
46:11I'm guessing Tucker crafts can be out there week one, but you just never know.
46:15So that doesn't answer the two wide receiver set one wide receiver set questions that we have with Jaden Reed.
46:21So it's like on a per route basis balls out, you have 18 routes and you average three yards per route.
46:27Like still like that's not really moving the needle.
46:30So it's difficult. I want to like this kind of tier of Parker, Washington, Jaden Reed, I'll throw Xavier worthy in there.
46:37Josh downs. Like there's a lot of these wide receivers who are like traditionally undersized and they're just like not going to get it done.
46:44We like their tape. I do think because all the running backs are kind of gone by that point, I've been drafting
46:51a lot of this tier and just hoping for the best.
46:54And that's really burns us in the past. I will say we're down like two rounds versus where these guys typically have been drafted.
47:01And all the running backs that I used to really like in this range are now in the fourth and fifth round.
47:07So I think this is kind of the year where it's like, all right, give me the efficient small wide receivers and just hope for the best.
47:15Yeah. I'm hoping you have at least two running backs by the time the seventh round rolls because that's remontoring Tony Pollard,
47:22Jalen Warren and RG Harvey in this area. I guess my conversation, my question to you is if we're talking about questions
47:28of finally graduating into two wide receiver sets, which by the way, Reeves always points out that through three NFL seasons, Jane
47:35Reed has run a pass route on only eight plays in one or two wide receiver sets, eight total plays in three NFL seasons.
47:42And by the way, the Packers were in 11 personnel 60% of the time last year, which was like 18th, 16th overall.
47:49And you know, they might run more 12 personnel if it's Tucker craft and the other tight end whose name big Luke.
47:55Yes. There you go. Back to my question. I understand that Jordan love is the Packers quarterback and Daniel Jones hopefully is the Colts quarterback.
48:02But if you want to take a risk of which of these wide receivers graduates into two wide receiver sets, why not
48:09just take Josh Downs two rounds after where Jane Reed is going as the third pick in the ninth run versus the 10th pick in the seventh.
48:17Yep. I see the same way. I'll say the same thing with Xavier worthy and I'll even make the case.
48:23Matthew golden, like Matthew golden, I think has a better chance of being in two wide receiver sets than Jaden Reed.
48:29You get a what 30 pick discount on that too.
48:32So I don't have anything overly negative with Jaden Reed aside from like the snaps.
48:37I kind of have him ranked a little bit after this range, but nothing too crazy.
48:41I just think that this tier of wide receivers goes down like four rounds and I just want to be kind of price sensitive with them.
48:49A couple of final stats here. When Parker, Washington Myers and BTJ were on the field, Parker, Washington team high 31% target chair, 3.17 yards per route run.
48:57So again, when they're an 11 personnel, Parker, Washington is the best wide receiver on the field, but he also might have this two wide receivers at 12%.
49:06personnel stuff, which again, we know Britain strange and then drafting board Kurcher in the second round of his 98 targets last
49:12year, just 12 were in 12 personnel last season for the Jacks.
49:16That's wild. They had over 30% target rate. There was three wide receivers last year with three wide receivers on the field that they had over 30%.
49:24It was Jackson Smith and Jigba Pook and Nakua Monra St.
49:27Brown. And then with those two other guys, if Parker, Washington would be the fourth insane, insane stuff.
49:32Now there's also like insane numbers for Jane Reed.
49:35If you want to go back and just look over what he's done over his first few seasons in, in the NFL,
49:41like over 2000 yards and 17 touchdowns in their first few seasons, he's up there with some of the best names ever among wider season.
49:49I do think that's goes to Lathor being able to script some really cool main touch plays.
49:54Yep. Um, and I kind of feel like we've lost a little bit of that juice from Jane Reed as we saw during his first couple of years.
50:02Yep. Lots of injuries too, to keep track of, but yeah, I don't mind taking like a Packers flyer kind of in this range.
50:09I just think, is it Tucker craft, Jaden Reed or Matthew golden at cost?
50:13And I'm kind of leaning towards the other two over read.
50:17That's going to do it. Hopefully you enjoyed this episode.
50:20Uh, hopefully you want us to do more. Let us know in the chat down below in the comments down below, if
50:26you did, uh, and some other, let's say draft conundrums that you have this or that crossroads, uh, selections.
50:32And, uh, we'll be sure to hit on them, uh, in a couple of weeks before we get out of here, they
50:38want to bring this up from hope who works over on the draft game side of underdog.
50:43She has a heavy hand in every single wind puppy that comes out every single best ball mania, uh, hope's been at
50:50underdog for multiple years, uh, cannot say enough good things, uh, about her in terms of meeting up when we get to,
50:56uh, any of these draft games, offsites and just underdog offsites in general.
51:00So she's going through some medical things. Uh, I'll link this down in the description below.
51:05So at the very least, if you could, um, retweet this post and just help spread the word, uh, that would be awesome.
51:12Yep. Hope is so great for the community. And then on top of that, she's just like a wonderful person.
51:18Like so nice, like just loves to chat ball.
51:20And, uh, just somebody like whenever I'm on these retreats underdog, like I go out of my way to go chat up with, with hope.
51:28She's the best. All right. That does it. Shout out to Mosho and we's behind the scenes.
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51:35It's totally free to all of you. We've got two more episodes this week.
51:39So lock in, watch them. We'll talk to y'all soon.
51:42See ya.