5 Players with Unlimited Ceilings Thanks To Playcalling
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Jul 28, 2026
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Tue, July 28, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00The entire goal of the offseason is to identify the stats that will help you win your fantasy league.
0:05It's really that simple, but I'm sure when you watch all these videos, you read all these analysts, the same numbers are repeated every single week.
0:12So today's mission to present you with at least five underlying metrics, five completely new stats that will give you an edge in your drafts.
0:19And the perfect man for this challenge is Ryan Paganetti.
0:22First, Ryan, welcome to the show. And second, you know, tell the people what you've been up to for the last decade
0:27that makes you perfectly suited for this challenge. Well, I really appreciate you guys having me.
0:32You know, I started in the NFL in 2015 with the Eagles and I've sort of done a bunch of different analytics and coaching type roles there.
0:39I was I was there for six years with Coach Peterson and you know, we managed to have a lot of success
0:45there in terms of, you know, we won the Super Bowl.
0:48We were kind of ahead of the game a little bit on some of the things like fourth downs and two point conversion.
0:54And QB sneaks and whatnot. And then I spent three years with the Jaguars as director of football analytics.
0:59And, you know, I was kind of diving a little bit more into the personnel side in addition to the coaching side there.
1:05And really, this last year I was with, you know, Pete Carroll, who's I absolutely love and I always will love and
1:11I hope to see him in the he might he deserves to be in two Hall of Fames, in my opinion, like just just an awesome guy.
1:19He was kind of dealt some, you know, difficult circumstances with the team that wasn't maybe necessarily ready to go last year.
1:25But you mentioned that you worked with Pete Carroll in the Raiders last year.
1:28You recently posted that quote. We had a goal last season in Las Vegas of single season record for catches and targets
1:34for Brock Bowers before the week one injury. So Ryan, how are you guys going to achieve that?
1:39And maybe most importantly, do you think that's going to be possible?
1:42And is another goal that Clint Kubiak might have for Brock Bowers this season?
1:46I just, you know, just from my familiarity with that roster, like we were basically looking at that last year and the
1:52talent that we had on hand, you know, I know a bunch of different, you know, where you really stack your team
1:58up in talent is always a little bit controversial.
2:00And, you know, it's, it's very good from like a media perspective to do ranks and whatnot.
2:05But there was a consensus that the receiver group for the Raiders entering last season was in some cases 32nd or quite close to 32nd.
2:12And there was a little bit of like a situation where Jacoby Myers wanted to get traded and he was kind of our top guy.
2:18And there was like some instability there. And, you know, Brock Bowers like had, I think he was like graduating from Georgia or something like that.
2:26He showed up at some point OTAs and the coaches were just kind of looking around and like, this is, this is, there are some things going on.
2:33And he had just come off his first season that I believe he set like the NFL record for catches for a tight end or something.
2:40And we're just kind of looking around, like given the roster distribution saying like, this makes way too much sense that we're,
2:46we're not doing a good job coaching if we're not figuring out how to get them the ball as much as possible.
2:52So that was sort of like the attitude. And, you know, I printed out a piece of paper for like Pete and chip.
2:58And I just, I think it was either early in training camp or in OTAs just because I, and it was essentially like, what are the actual records?
3:06And I'm like, we're going to just keep a tally of this every week as like an aiming point.
3:11And the attitude from them was like, Oh, let's, let's smash those records.
3:14Like just given where we were as a team and like what, from a macro perspective, where we thought like our kind of difference maker player was.
3:22And then week one, he had a pretty significant knee injury.
3:25I think he had 108 yards, like say two and a half quarters in the game, whatever.
3:29Don't quote me on that exact number, but he gets that injury and he was significantly hampered.
3:34And it was like an ongoing narrative. He wasn't practicing.
3:36He's like, there's can't even do walkthrough some days.
3:39They ended up shutting him down for a period.
3:41He comes back and gets like three touchdowns in a game.
3:44And, um, but then he's, you know, he gets, he's still kind of managing it.
3:48And so there was, there was considerations like managing his snaps.
3:51Like, was he getting, was he drawing additional attention?
3:54And, um, it really, the, the combination of the injuries and, um, you know, the, some other players on the offense, clearly
4:00not performing really where you would hope. And it just was sort of snowballed where, you know, then we even had a play color change during the season.
4:07And like, so all those different variables made it a little bit complex, but if I was Clint Kubiak and I had,
4:13and I also just funneled like an insanely high percentage of my offense through one player, if I was thinking I might
4:19do that again, like doing that for Brock Bowers makes all the sense in the world.
4:23Just given nobody can actually, with a serious face can like show up to their practice, look at the past catcher unit
4:29and not say, you actually might think he's the starting X, Y receiver.
4:33Like we were going to do that at different points where we're like, why don't we just make them our X and
4:39we just 12 will be our base offense. And Michael Mayer will be our Y tight end.
4:43You know, I, I was, I was keep certainly keeping an eye on like how unsustainable the JSN target share was last
4:49year, but then he just kept doing it and he kept succeeding.
4:52It's so like, I, if I was Clint, I'd be like, I'm just going to try that again.
4:57Like, why not? I think that Trey McBride ran what over a hundred more routes than any other tight end in the NFL last year.
5:04So Hey, I know that Brock Bowers is one of our favorite picks on the board this year.
5:09He's going to go crazy. Just real quick. We don't spend a lot of time on this.
5:13Is there anything about the Raiders analysis from Ashton Gentty?
5:16Obviously the situation was brutal offensive line, just him by himself comparing him to other backs across the league.
5:21Was there any consensus in the building after watching his rookie season?
5:24I, um, well, we put it this way. Like, uh, as an, as an analytics person, there, there's like a certain belief
5:30system of like, I'm a big offensive line. First guy.
5:33I was there in Philadelphia where, you know, at times we were basically putting practice squad backs behind like a great offensive line and having production.
5:40And, um, it was clear that the offensive line really needed massive improvement there.
5:44And almost certainly Gentty will perform better this year.
5:46They have some things they got to sort out with some of the offensive line positions still, you know, they've got basically
5:52two guys that are like confirmed starters. And then the other ones are a little bit up in the air.
5:58You know, Gentty has a unique play style where he's definitely a little bit more of a try to run you over
6:03guy rather than like the ultra dynamic outrun you type player.
6:06And it's definitely an interesting kind of contrast with some guys like Jameer Gibbs, where you're sort of like sweating that if
6:12he hits a crease, he's going to go like 75.
6:15And like, that's not to say that Gentty can't, but he might get 75 and break four tackles on the way.
6:21Gent and, and, and, uh, you know, Gibbs or Saquon might go untouched at times.
6:25I think it'll be interesting. Um, there's definitely a lot, there was a lot of eyeballs on that decision of making that pick last year.
6:32Um, you know, that's ultimately like, that's the route that the team decided to go with.
6:36And it, it didn't result in the team improving run game wise last year.
6:40And I think it seems like that was an emphasis for this year that whatever, whatever other like components they added to
6:46the team, they really need to get the run game on track.
6:49I got to ask, uh, was this more of like, like analytics department?
6:52Was there something different? Because I know a lot of people that watch fantasy football shows, like their dream job would be
6:58like in the analytics department of these NFL teams.
7:01Can you just give us some backstory and just exactly how analytics departments work behind the scenes for these NFL teams?
7:06Yeah. I I'd say, you know, a lot in a lot of cases there's, it used to be like sort of when
7:12I started almost like one or two man shops and things have really expanded where now teams aren't shrinking their analytics departments.
7:18They're just getting bigger. And, you know, I, I bring up baseball, for example, where, you know, some people quote some of
7:24these top teams of having, you know, essentially 40 quantitative people now in like, in like the direction of a football, like
7:30to some teams are like approaching tennis and it's probably going to continue to go up, especially in this world of like the player tracking data and everything.
7:38But, um, whether it's like draft modeling, like free agency valuations, trades, uh, game planning, league wide studies, like all sorts of cap implications.
7:44Um, I think you're seeing more and more of the data really being utilized in all those different worlds.
7:49And the thing I think that the Eagles did an amazing job of is that, uh, you know, the, I'd seen like
7:55the message from Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman was like, basically every important decision was going to be cross-checked with analytics.
8:01And if, and if there were some data that said, don't do this, like they were going to pause and be like,
8:07you know, let's look into this, let's think about this.
8:09And, um, it's really to me, like if, if you say if an organization made 10,000 decisions in 2015, there was a
8:15lot of places that maybe used some kind of data for like 10 of them.
8:19And now, now you have teams that are basically using some kind of data for nearly every decision.
8:24Um, so it's, it's, it's, it's a really, uh, it's an interesting world where like, just like the coaches are trying to
8:30beat the other coaches and the scouts are trying to, you know, do a better job evaluating players.
8:35Like the analytics people I think are trying to have better information for their own staffs too.
8:39You mentioned game planning, uh, and trying to understand these play colors and coaches.
8:43We love doing that too, Ryan. Uh, because in the end, you know, you don't get fancy points unless people actually score
8:49points on the field and yards on the field every Thursday, Sunday and Monday on top of it.
8:54So let's dive into some of the information you've been sharing, uh, on Twitter.
8:58That is at Ryan Paganetti. Uh, everything we talk about today comes from that.
9:02And the first chart we're going to bring up here, the play callers with 10 plus yard design run rates, uh, throughout their entire career.
9:08So typically this is viewed Ryan from our lens through individual running backs, individual ball carriers, but I love looking at it, how you have done it here.
9:16With the, you know, offensive designers with the play callers.
9:19So I'm not going to shout out anything. I just want to present this to you since you presented it to us
9:24and ask what stood out to you when you put these numbers together.
9:28A lot of the top names are consistently guys that are, you know, fairly well-regarded in terms of run game designs.
9:34And one thing I think that stands out too, is like, there's a little bit of a, of a consideration that some
9:40of the top performers also had a like running type quarterback because that's absolutely has a huge boost in the run game,
9:46whether they can read a defender, whether it's Kyler Murray or, you know, Lamar Jackson with Todd Munkin.
9:50But you see some of these guys in particular that, you know, have succeeded even without what would be considered like a true running quarterback.
9:57For example, like Ben Johnson with Jared Goff and, and what, you know, Caleb can, can run a little bit, but that's
10:03not going to be like a main thing that they do as much as other teams.
10:07And then Mike McDaniel with, you know, two, it certainly wasn't really a heavy run guy there, but you see some of
10:13the exceptional, like big play upside of some of these guys, how much of it was an offensive line situation in their past?
10:19Was there something with running back talent and all that?
10:22But I think there's at least some level of concern if like guys over some big samples are showing up relatively low on some of these rankings.
10:29I do want to call attention to a couple of these names specifically.
10:33So at the top of the list, it's Todd Munkin at a 14.3% rate.
10:37We know that Quinn, John Johnkins is in the middle of the fifth round.
10:40Now, no mobile quarterback in Lamar Jackson attached to him, but point still stands.
10:44As you mentioned, Ben Johnson with the bears, Deandre Swift also in the fifth round.
10:48Then you get to Mike McDaniel third on this list.
10:51Now with the chargers, we know Martin Hampton is at that one, two turn drew pets in the one-on-one attached to Jameer
10:57Gibbs, which is notable because we know what Jameer Gibbs done that rushing attack did with Ben Johnson, who's second on the list.
11:03So still having a top four guy among this as calling plays in the Zion the run game helps Shane Steichen, obviously
11:09Jonathan Taylor, the eighth overall pick on Yahoo right now.
11:12Ryan, I also want to take you to one part being the explosive plays that we just outlined, but also avoiding negative
11:18runs, avoiding dead runs is a major part of this too.
11:21You also posted this chart. Uh, what's it out to me here is how Mike McDaniel on the previous was ranked third on explosive runs rate.
11:28And then now rank bottom three in terms of number of dead runs.
11:31Now from the outside, I can guess that that is maybe an offensive line stat also where these runs kind of originate for him at the same time.
11:39Um, there's a whole bunch of things I could dive into here when conversely, you know, Ben Johnson ranks at the top of, of nearly both.
11:46Uh, what stands out to you again, Nick Kaley, the Texans are 22nd out of 26 teams here.
11:51So it's almost, would you say combining these two and maybe looking at the overlap, uh, is maybe the best way to
11:56approach how the run structure is going to feature for these teams this year?
12:00To me, part of the story that it's telling is that Ben Johnson's really good at coaching football because he's avoiding negatives
12:06and he's just methodically getting big chunks as well.
12:09And so like, it's interesting how some of these lists are a little bit different.
12:13I think the bills are kind of interesting that they're actually a little bit higher here in terms of popping off some big runs.
12:19Um, you know, Kellen Moore is up there a little bit higher, which I think is interesting too, because they, they had
12:25a little bit of a struggling run game last year, but you know, there's some reasons to think that could improve, you
12:31know, I think, uh, Mike McDaniels have that. I think it has a lot to do with the, the scheme being very high risk, high reward.
12:38Like there's sometimes there's these, yeah, like outside runs, tosses, reverses.
12:41Um, he he'll come up with stuff every, every game or two that no one's ever run before.
12:46And sometimes those things are awesome and it's a gash.
12:48And then sometimes like maybe part of the reason no one's run it before is because like, it's a little bit of a funky deal.
12:55And then like, there's like a two yard loss in there.
12:58But you know, I think, uh, it's, it's an interesting, like if you're just thinking stability and like, if you're like, I
13:04want, I want a guy that I feel pretty comfortable on a, you know, weekend, a week out basis is going to come up with a run game.
13:12That's probably going to be pretty efficient. And you know, you're, I think you have to at least think Ben Johnson's kind
13:18of up there and, you know, Matt Lafleur up there too, I think was a little bit interesting too, especially because they're like rivals or whatever.
13:25Hayden, the thing that stood up to me is Devon H and going from Mike McDaniels play calling, which is again, third
13:30in design run rate that leads to an explosive to now Bobby Sloick, who obviously was with the Texans and now gets
13:36a second time calling plays here with the dolphins to 19th.
13:39And then also Sloick's offense is ranked 25th in terms of a negative rush rate.
13:43I mean, it makes me nervous, but I think Sloick would be smart to just kind of study what Mike McDaniel was doing.
13:50And also I think that dolphins offensive line has really come along, especially when you get Caden Proctor in there when the
13:56slow offensive lines were terrible with, with the Texans, but I never saw anything like super original out of Bobby Sloick.
14:01And that does make me a little bit nervous, but Devon H is like one of these superstar backs that like, it's kind of on you.
14:08If you can't make that work behind that offensive line at this point, like you're not going to be in the play calling chair for very long.
14:15From your experience, have you ever been a part of an organization where, uh, such a prophetic, that's the right term to
14:21use, uh, in terms of just a great genius moves on.
14:24And then he's kind of replaced with someone who, uh, maybe doesn't run the exact same style, but can kind of pick
14:30up on some of the, uh, outlines of what the departed play caller left in his place.
14:35If you're, if you're a coach in the NFL, like the shelf life is, is, is short and the turnover is so high.
14:41You're, you're usually better off following up somebody who was like not well-regarded.
14:45Yeah. Like I, I feel bad for the, the, the O-line coach in Philadelphia this year.
14:49He's like stepping in for like a hall of fame O-line coach.
14:52And like, I don't, I, I hope he does a great job and he's got some players to work with and everything,
14:58but just like the standard that's set at times is tricky.
15:01And like, so you definitely see coaches like studying what was successful with the previous coach, because like, you don't necessarily just want to abandon everything.
15:08Like it would be kind of foolish if the dolphins just like let every single run design they had on fire last
15:14year, when they have, they were doing some things that were really cool in the run game.
15:19And at times they were getting huge plays. And if somebody like is such an outperformer, like I can assure you most
15:24offensive coaches around the league have had some, somebody on their staff is studying what Sean McVay and Ben Johnson has have
15:30done these like last couple of years. Um, because it's, it's almost like malpractice not to at least take a look at it.
15:37Before we move on from the running backs, I had a question about just what NFL teams are doing to kind of grade running backs.
15:43So we have like next gen stats, the public model with it.
15:47They're doing their best to kind of account for the boxes, how good the offensive line is.
15:51I see that some of these charts using NFL faster.
15:54That's what I use. I have my own models, rush yards over expected success rate.
15:58Is there, is there something that teams have access to that is just way outclassed what the public does?
16:03And then follow up to that, do teams, uh, look at what's what some people are posting onto Twitter and ESPN and stuff?
16:09Uh, is there any kind of like making sure that the media doesn't have some idea that maybe we haven't thought of before?
16:15Well, I always, I was always refreshing Twitter. If I would find something that was good or useful, I would just like
16:21print it out and give it to the head coach.
16:24I didn't care. Like, like there's, why would you not use the information?
16:28And now that there's so much data out there and there's a lot of like interesting analysis being done, you know, on
16:33social media, a lot of times these coaches actually get asked in their weekly press conferences, just based off something that came
16:39up like, Hey, you're 32nd in the league in middle of the field throws.
16:43And it's comes from somebody just like pulled something together.
16:46Um, the, uh, in terms of the run game, like there's you, when you're on the team side, like you have access
16:52to this expected rush yards that on like a play by play level.
16:55And it's, it's honestly, I'm not entirely sure if you can get access to that in the public sphere of like the
17:01one that's built entirely off of the tracking data.
17:04And I think you can get like summary stats of it, but on the team side, like you could legitimately say like,
17:10Oh, this play was supposed to get 2.3 yards and they running back up like 3.9.
17:14The play by play level information on that. I'm not entirely sure how much of that is available in the public.
17:20I think it's a little bit limited. And, um, but like, it's the same thing with like past game, like the expected completion rates and whatnot.
17:27Like it's, it's really useful to kind of evaluate, um, with a little bit more precision and say like, okay, like great.
17:32That ball was completed, but maybe you shouldn't have thrown that.
17:35You tell your quarterbacks because it was like a 42% chance of completion rate.
17:39And there was another opportunity and stuff like that.
17:42So NFL teams, it's all tracking data. Now it's like, look for a lot of the public information, it's like the tenant.
17:48Okay. How many people were in the box? And then you can build some type of model, but the team stuff is
17:53like, all it's just like, we have every single helmet tracked at this point.
17:57And all of the models are based off of that.
18:00We don't need the stuff that the public usually has access to.
18:03I would say it's, it's still a blend in like, dude, that's where you get the differentiation between the teams that are
18:09like taking analytics seriously versus not is the ones that are kind of leaning into that a little bit more, but there's
18:15still the public sources are, are leaned on like PFF had a relationship or still has a relationship with every team.
18:21It's the same thing with college, like where you get, you know, a lot of these objective metrics, like what's the personnel
18:27in the game, what's run concepts and things like that.
18:29Like you in a perfect world, you do as much of that as possible with the player tracking, but there also is
18:35a lot of work that goes into that. And so there's still some things like subjectively that are a little bit better.
18:41So there's a world though, where it really moves 95% plus towards just like everyone using player tracking data.
18:46I wish they just made it all public. It would be so much more fun to do some of this stuff.
18:52A hundred percent. Okay. Uh, we can't have a conversation about play callers without bringing up Ben Johnson's name again.
18:57Uh, Ryan, you posted that no NFL play caller this century has treated second and short, like a free shot more aggressively
19:03than Ben Johnson among 68 play callers with 70 plus games since 1999.
19:07Ben Johnson ranks first and second one pass rate first and second and two pass rate first and second and three pass rate basically.
19:13Uh, one, when was this first on your radar?
19:16How did it get on your radar? And second, uh, why is he so head and shoulders above everyone else?
19:21And like, why is this so important to his game to game success?
19:25Yeah. So I think his, when he first started really calling plays in 2022, um, I had on like a week to week basis.
19:31I'm like really on top of all these league wide metrics.
19:34Like as the coaches are worried, I'm doing as much work as I can on like a Monday and Tuesday to help
19:40the team with the next game plan and self scouting and stuff.
19:43And then I would try to spend the rest of the week trying to get ahead.
19:47Like, all right, what's something that's going on? That's a little bit unique.
19:51And I remember back then just seeing like, okay, he was, there's this guy, Ben Johnson with Detroit.
19:56Like the expectations were pretty low. They were doing all these like tight end shifts and motions.
20:00And it was like standing out some of my metrics.
20:03And I'm like, they were almost immediately like really good.
20:06And, um, you know, it was a little bit unclear at times.
20:09Like, is it just the personnel is really good?
20:11Like, is, are they just stacked on the offensive line?
20:14But then he did it again the next year and then he did it again the next year.
20:19And, you know, of course, you know, as their team was succeeding, they started playing in these, these islands night games and they're running laterals and trick plays.
20:27It's like, it's really, really impressive what he was doing.
20:29Um, I thought when he was entering kind of like after three years as the play caller, I thought it was potentially the greatest head coach opportunity.
20:36Like if I was, I, there's half those teams in the league, I would have potentially gotten rid of my head coach at Ben Johnson agreed.
20:43Now you can't just do that because there's rules for hiring, but I, he, it was so unbelievable.
20:48Like looking at his, his metrics in terms of what he had accomplished, how young he was, he's like a computer engineering major.
20:55Um, and really he sort of captivated the whole league with what he was doing.
20:59And so I, I tried to dig into different things that he was doing that was unique.
21:03And, you know, this, this idea that there's a lot of coaches that just look at second and short and they're like, let's just go pick it up.
21:11Let's pick it up. Like Greg Roman. I don't know if you guys saw that one, but Greg Roman had a stretch
21:17from middle of 2019 to his end of his chargers career where every second and one to two, it was with that
21:23were like, not at the goal line. They had, they had 135 runs in one pass.
21:27Like that's just literally what he was. I swear to God.
21:30And like legitimately. So like we played him in the chart with the chargers last year.
21:34And it was actually, it was actually the game that Tom Brady came up and was in the booth.
21:39And like, he's like sitting next to me and I have like all these tables and stuff and I'd bring it up on the headset different times.
21:47And like, they get a second one to two and I like look over at my, I'm a little chart and it's like, here's the run thing.
21:54And I'm like telling Pac Ram and Pete and like, sure enough, they run it.
21:58Like, that's just what he does. And they're like, people at the booths are like, Oh damn, that's cool.
22:03Like, how'd you know that? I'm like, okay, well it was a pretty good time.
22:07Yeah. And the best part is the one time that they actually passed, it was like an uptempo play in the second quarter against the Patriots.
22:14And they took a brutal sack. And I was like, never again, but that'll be interesting with, um, you know, cause Greg
22:20ended up going, but joining back on with John Harbaugh and Maggie actually, you know, was a little bit more willing to throw in some of those situations.
22:27But this idea that even in like third and shorts and fourth and shorts, like there seems to be like a wellness
22:33from Ben to try to, rather than leaning into the sneak thing, he's like, I'm going to try to go for big plays as much as possible.
22:41And then as much of the first and second down stuff, he's, he's so 50, 50 and everything.
22:46So like, he's the most 50, 50 guy on first and, you know, on second and short, the most 50, 50 guy
22:51on second and three to six, the most 50, 50 guy on second and seven to 10.
22:56A lot of the analytics guys criticize him on the second to seven to 10 runs.
23:00But I think there's actually like a master plan where essentially you can't game plan it going forward, as opposed to like,
23:06I think Steichen's a great coach, but like everyone in the league had caught on.
23:10They were throwing every time on second and seven to 10 as the season went on.
23:15And it's like, okay, do you start calling different defenses?
23:17Do you match with lighter personnel? Do you blitz, you know, call pass pressures or, you know, do you line up in
23:23fronts because you know that they're not going to run the ball?
23:27Like there's, there's a balance there where you can get too extreme.
23:30And I think that's part of what makes Ben Johnson's offense sustainable.
23:33And people have asked like, are people going to catch on to your offense?
23:37And he just like laughs about it. And I'm kind of with him in the sense that what are they going to figure out that you're 50, 50?
23:44Like, yeah, then what? It's one thing if you're the Eagles and the team figures out how to stop the tush push.
23:50And you're like, well, there goes 90% of our short yardage offense.
23:53But he, there, there is so much of what Ben does that everything looks exactly the same.
23:58And then he has some kind of change up.
24:00And, you know, I was talking to Pat Graham when we were playing them last year.
24:05And he's like, you don't even, cause I would give the coaches like a tendency sheets.
24:09And he's like, you don't even really need to give me one this week because like, I know it's just a wild card.
24:15He's like, the one thing I do know is like, he's going to call some trick players up that early on this game.
24:21Like, so we got to be ready for that stuff.
24:24So it's super impressive. And, um, I would, I would expect just when somebody is such an outperformer as a play caller
24:30for so many consecutive years, like you can't say it was a Jared golf thing, or it was the Detroit O-line.
24:36It was a junior. No, like he's, he's done it so many times that I think if you were you'd feel a
24:42lot safer about your investments with a guy that almost certainly is going to have a way to sort of figure out
24:48how to get a good offense going, you know, even if they do suffer injuries or have to kind of adapt a little bit.
24:54It's kind of interesting to see the, the league.
24:56Um, a lot of the, the trends seem to be backing up what we've been doing in Madden for, for two decades,
25:02like the second and first stuff, the, the fourth down decision-making and stuff.
25:06It just seems like we're in such a new place now that it's like finding some like younger quality control coach, like
25:12does seem like where I would be like looking around just because it seems like we've like really flipped things like, or
25:18we even just for the decade that you started till now, it seems like we've like almost done like a big one 80 here.
25:24There's been like an explosion in like the ease of, uh, accessing other teams film or even college film.
25:29It used to be like a hassle. And now more of like the tech savvy, younger guys can quickly pull up like,
25:35Hey, Louisville's doing this or two lanes doing this.
25:38Or, um, this was super cool that, you know, let me, let's find all the counter bluff reverses in the NFL.
25:43Like that used to be a nightmare to try to do.
25:46And you couldn't even do it like, unless you just manually started digging and now you can kind of get that stuff.
25:52And I think the guys that are tech savvy or at least have some like savvier people helping them out with their
25:58sort of game planning and stuff have definitely have an advantage right now.
26:02I mean, this seems like a long time ago, but in the grand scheme of the league, it's not 15 years ago,
26:08Ryan, I was had a cup of coffee with the Rams scouting department when they were in St.
26:12Louis. And even in 2011, you had to literally take VCR tapes and plug them in and watch, you know, the college prospects.
26:19And then that's what the film was versus everything being in database that is sortable.
26:23So it's not surprising at all that in that last 15 years or ever since that was all digitized, um, everything is
26:29just exponentially, you know, progressed so much faster. And one of those things I did want to bring up, cause we can
26:35kind of speed around this, but I know that quarterback sneaks have kind of become your obsession over, let's say the last
26:4110 years, you wrote that in 2016, there were less than 70 quarterback sneaks last season.
26:45There were 340 of them. And also no team has ever been stopped on four straight sneaks on first and goal from the one yard line.
26:52Yeah. So what I would say on that is, you know, I grew up in Massachusetts and I, you know, my memory,
26:58I was about 10 years old when the Patriots kind of dynasty began and I went to a million games and I followed it.
27:04You know, that was the, that was the broadcast that you'd watch on 1 PM on, on Sundays and forever.
27:10Nobody could ever explain to me why everyone is not just copying New England.
27:13Like they had a stretch for like 15 years where they had double the sneaks of anyone else.
27:18And so like, I get to the Eagles and you know, in particular with Peterson's first year, like I was super grateful.
27:24I kept my job. I was like retained from the previous staff because I'd started a year before.
27:29And I was like, really, my attitude was like, I'm just going to, you know, do one of my ass, like lay low.
27:35Like the last thing I want to do is like, try to tell some new head coach like, Hey bro, like we got to do this, whatever.
27:42But as we developed a great relationship and as I developed a really good relationship with Jeff Stout and the online coach,
27:48I spent a lot of time that following off season after our first year, we ran two sneaks in 2016.
27:54And I'm like, you know, there was Doug Peterson's on the hot seat.
27:57There's like, you know what the Philly media is like, if you go seven to nine, they're like, you're done.
28:03Like, so I was like, I'm not going down like this.
28:06I'm like, this is such a bottleneck. And like, this is it.
28:09Once you know the numbers and you've seen like the operation, like it's like hard to watch a game or be part
28:15of a game and like, see the team not doing it.
28:18So we just really dug into all that very, very in depth and all the concerns about like quarterback getting hurt.
28:23You can only do it when it's under a yard.
28:26You can only do it. You can't do it if there's two guys in the A gaps, but now people are like,
28:32wait a minute, we could just put the backup in, or wait a minute, we could just put a tight end in.
28:38And this last year you saw more backup quarterbacks, you know, that, or sorry, more non QBs take sneaks, you know, than, than ever before.
28:45I don't even know. I was joking with Jason Kelsey the other day.
28:48Like, I don't even think you can call them sneaks anymore.
28:51Like there needs to be a new word because there's no surprise element in most of these, but, um, uh, and, and he is the official sneak champion.
28:59Like thank, thankfully, like once we had that data, he was like, basically gonna like strangle somebody if we didn't call a
29:05sneak, like, and like, so when the players want to do it, like that just kind of takes care of itself.
29:10But we actually experimented because Gino had very few sneaks in college or sorry, very few sneaks over his career.
29:16And people were like, Oh, maybe it's not his body type.
29:19We were experimenting with Brock doing it. And we, we were, he was taking snaps and camp and whatnot.
29:24Unfortunately, literally in that first game, Gino got hurt like his groin and it was sort of a lingering thing.
29:29And Brock hurts his knee. And so like our first two sneak options, we ended up still doing, you know, I don't
29:35know, 10 or so on the year, but it kind of slowed our sort of plan on that.
29:40But you see some teams like the Seahawks are just like, Oh, we're just going to literally put a tight end in there every single time.
29:47You know, I think I'm going to put it at about 75% chance that the Eagles at least experiment with some kind
29:53of non like quote, I use the word rugby scrum because Pete Carroll said it.
29:57And I thought it was hilarious. Cause like, that's literally what the play is.
30:01So he'd be like, we're, we can have a sneak play, but we're going to have rugby scrum as a separate play that we're going to experiment with.
30:08And some teams, like we brought in like a legitimate, uh, rugby, uh, like a rugby coach.
30:13Like, and we just like to like a zoom with him and asked him about the leverage and everything.
30:18And we're like trying to make up stuff on defense.
30:21Like, can we push the guys on defense? Like, I don't even know what, you know, what that would look like.
30:26And even Ryan last year, I feel like the counter punch for the Eagles on maybe four or five touchdowns for Dallas
30:32Goddard was to pitch it out in those situations because everyone was, you know, so clustered in the middle.
30:37Then it was leaving the free space to Dallas Goddard to get to the edge.
30:41Yeah. There there's, there's like a, if you think of the game theory, like big picture, like for the longest time, sneaks
30:47were just so much better than everything else. You probably could just keep doing it, but it's, we've really reached a point
30:53where particularly on like the fourth down plays that are not right on the goal line, like a mixed strategy is probably the best thing.
31:00Like the Mark Andrews, like spin out that he had for the long touchdown and different, like 30, 40 yard gains.
31:06Like that really is the best way to not only, you know, have the most of, you know, explosiveness and effectiveness, but
31:12also to boost the sneaks because then these teams have to play, they have to play it straight.
31:16There were some snaps last year. There was guys like laying on the ground pre-snap to try to stop.
31:22Like people were just making stuff up and people were then just still running the sneaks anyways.
31:26And like, there, there is a point where like, okay, maybe this does not make any sense anymore.
31:31One thing I'd say is like, you know, we were, our team was just not good.
31:35Like everyone kind of knew that with the Raiders, but as things were playing out and like, we had those injuries and stuff.
31:41Like I just went down this little wormhole and I'm like, who would be the best player on the team to do this?
31:48If we were just going to go like with these, you know, scrum tush push type things.
31:52And it's just so happened that Max Crosby is like eerily similar frame to Josh Allen.
31:57They're both six, four and seven eights. And they're, they're three cone times were within one, one hundredth of a second.
32:02And Max is actually bigger. He's heavier and he's faster.
32:05And Max is like a really good athlete. Now, Max also had like a significant health thing, but I like said it to Max at one point.
32:12He's like, bro, I would get that every single time.
32:15Like I, you, you, I really think like, there's no compelling reason that you have to say, Oh, we're doing this with a tight end.
32:22Like there's some really dynamic big guys in the, in the league that could be defenders could be, you know, some of
32:28those are I mean, like I would, if I'm the Rams, like, you know, say Puka Nakua is healthy.
32:33Like that's a dynamic player that has some strength to him.
32:36Like, is there a world's interesting? Aaron Donald's TV sneak role.
32:39Let's see what happens, man. I actually, as I was digging.
32:42So like this staff that we had, there's no teams ever been stopped on four consecutive sneaks on a set of downs in the NFL.
32:48There's never been three consecutive. And I was digging through some college data.
32:52There actually is like, has been like one or two times that a team has been stopped on three straight.
32:57But as I was looking through it, I found a snap of Southern university.
33:01And I don't even know if I can like post this online.
33:04Cause there's like all these college film rules and stuff.
33:07Southern university put a guy in that was like 400 pounds as a pusher.
33:11He is the, he legitimately looked like the largest human being I've ever seen in my life.
33:15And he just completely just dwarf the it's, it's completely hilarious.
33:18But I also like, I've, I mentioned it on this thing that I'm doing with Nick Underhill for our little show that we're just doing.
33:25That's kind of like innovative schematic strategies and whatnot that they were hitting on.
33:29I actually think that if I was optimizing this and I still wanted to do the tush pushes, I would actually take
33:35it either a tight end or offensive lineman and take him in fast motion, say five to seven yards off the line
33:41of scrimmage and towards the tackle box. And then on the snap, like he immediately veers up and then he's like your second surge player.
33:47So if you think about Trent Williams, when he just was obliterating people on those kickouts, like, but totally experimental would not do that.
33:54Tell that to the ball carrier. Yeah. The ball carrier is like, I hate that idea.
33:58So like, listen to this. So like, I'm going to put my Nostradamus projection is that I'm going to say that I
34:04think somebody is going to do this, this running start thing.
34:07And either it's going to be an injury or it's going to be so effective that the league is going to ban it after the season.
34:14Like it, cause they were close to banning the pushing two years ago.
34:17And then the Eagles just didn't have as good of a year this last year.
34:22But even if you took six games in the last season and can pull the media is the tush push getting banned.
34:27It probably would have gotten 95%. Yes, it's getting banned.
34:30And it was because when they, when, when the, uh, when the Eagles play the chiefs, it was like this incredibly embarrassing thing where guys were jumping early.
34:38Then there was another one, like the giants ripped the ball out and they blew it dead early because it was like,
34:44they couldn't even tell the play was still going on.
34:46And there was way too many instances where it really became hard to officiate.
34:50Um, but I think if the Eagles say had like beat the 49ers in the playoffs and like the game ended with
34:56them just like smashing forward on, like, I think the thing really honestly probably would have got brought up again in terms of like a potential ban.
35:03And I, and I could see, uh, there there's, there's clearly, it was like two votes away from getting banned.
35:09I could see there's like enough annoyance that that could be, end up being a narrative again.
35:13Ryan, you've said it all. This was electric. You also mentioned that you are doing a show with Nick Underhill.
35:19You all can search for it. It's in the description down below.
35:22It's, uh, Paganetti and Underhill. Uh, we love Nick.
35:24He's absolutely one of the best in the biz at what he does, uh, at, at covering the saints at such a high level.
35:31And, uh, also is out there trying to teach people football along with you.
35:35So I think it's an amazing, uh, collaboration between two, uh, people that, again, make not just us, but everyone else smarter with the game.
35:41So Ryan appreciate it. Uh, everyone go follow Ryan on Twitter and, you know, push him a little bit more, push, push
35:47him a little bit more to, uh, continue posting, uh, some, some of this information that's behind the curtain and peeking through keyholes of, uh, NFL franchises.
35:54Cause Ryan, we do, we really do appreciate it.
35:57I appreciate you guys having me and I'll say, um, any fans that if you guys got a crazy idea, just tag
36:03me somewhere on Twitter and, and, and I'll start digging on it.
36:06And, you know, you never know. I, I got a message, you know, yesterday that, you know, one of the head coaches
36:12had basically printed out one of my tweets and asked an analyst to like, sort of duplicate it for their own team.
36:18So like the, the, the world of media is seen by a lot of these guys.
36:22Like there's some of these head coaches are literally following, they might be following your accounts or following my cats.
36:28Some of them have burners. Like they, they're keeping an eye on this stuff.
36:31And so, um, you know, for fans, like there, there are cases you bring up something like it and it can literally
36:37have a tangible impact on like impacting your favorite team.
36:40And like, you might notice some tendency or something that the, honestly, the teams on team, you know, hadn't figured out themselves.
36:46So it's an awesome time. Like, I really appreciate you guys having me and, you know, I'm excited to see kind of
36:52follow a little bit more of the fantasy space this year.
36:55Love that. All right, everyone. We're back with two more shows this week.
36:58That's yes. Four shows per week, at least until the season kicks off.
37:02So we'll see you on the next one.
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