From the video
JSN first up, um he has never missed a game in his three-year career. He's got back-to-back seasons of 100 or more receptions, 119 receptions, nearly 1,800 yards, and 10 touchdowns last year... Last season he ranked first in target share, targets per drop back, uh, weight opportunity rating, percent of team error yards... from weeks 13 on over 100 yards in only two of nine games counting the playoffs... I still think that JSN is going to have a great season. I still have him ranked third... even if efficiency drops, plays will increase. And if you look at the underlying metrics, they're insane.
STACKED’s take
Tier 2 with elite volume metrics; second-half regression and efficiency concerns offset by volume.
Tier 2 WR ranked third overall; never missed a game in three-year career with back-to-back 100+ reception seasons (119 receptions, 1,800 yards, 10 touchdowns last year) on a team ranked 28th in pass attempts per game. Ranked first in target share, targets per drop back, weighted opportunity rating, and percent of team error yards last season. Primary concerns include efficiency decline (likely given last year's elite efficiency) and significant second-half regression (100+ yards in 8 of 11 first-half games but only 2 of 9 second-half/playoff games, including 19 yards vs. 49ers and 27 yards in Super Bowl despite 70%+ snap share both times). Kubiak departure and Shedeur Sanders expected increased usage are additional efficiency headwinds, but volume upside could offset regression. JJ Zachariason still expects a great season and ranks him third overall despite these concerns, noting that even if efficiency drops, plays will increase, and underlying metrics are exceptional—nearly full route tree, cleared 90th percentile versus man and press coverage, 80th percentile versus zone.
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