Top 40 WRs for 2026 Fantasy Football – Tier Breaks You Need to Know
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Jul 24, 2026
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Fri, July 24, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. Wednesday we went over running back. Today we're going over wide receiver. I'll break
0:05down my top 40 in the tiers for half PPR scoring. If you want to see other formats, if you want to drop for the
0:11dynamic rankings, see all that my website the fantasy footballadvice.com.
0:15All right, going to be another long one.
0:16Sit back, hit the like button, get things started off with tier one, Chase and Puka. Everyone should basically have this in tier one unless they want to
0:24extend tier one into uh maybe like late round one, round two wide receivers.
0:29Chase, Puka, very clearly at the top. I think in that order. I will say this, if you were someone that really wanted to
0:36go with Puka, we'll obviously go over him in a second. Um, I could see I could see going Puka over Chase. Uh, they're
0:42just more risk factors with Puka. Uh, but they're both just exceptional picks and I would take them right after Gibbs and Bejan. So, Jamar Chase, I mean, he's
0:51been the wide receiver, one and three in adjusted points per game the last two years. 125 plus receptions back-to-back seasons, 17 touchdowns two years ago,
1:01only missed two games in the last three years. He's just a very high upside, very safe pick. You know exactly what
1:07you're getting from the offense. He's, you know, easily a top three wide receiver talent in the NFL. Uh just I I
1:13shouldn't have to sell you on Jamar Chase. He's my first wide receiver. Puka also amazing obviously coming off 129 receptions, over 1,700 yards, 11
1:22touchdowns. No wide receiver in NFL history has averaged more receiving yards per game than Puka Nua uh in his career. Uh fewer than five receptions
1:32one time. That's including three playoff games. Fewer than five receptions one time. That floor is absolutely crazy across 19 total games again including
1:42the playoffs. Double digit targets 13 times at least eight targets in 17 of 19. It was injury for the times that he
1:50didn't. you know, every time he's going off the field, it's a minimum of eight targets. Adams turns 34 in December.
1:58Only reason that he's not ahead of Chase is that he has slightly higher injury concern. There are just more times where
2:03he limps off the field. Um, he's gotten injured at a higher rate. Uh, mixed with just a little bit of off the- field
2:10risk. I don't think anything's going to come of that, but we don't have to worry about that at all with Jamar Chase.
2:16Since they're both so amazing and Chase has stayed healthier, I just lean towards Jamar Chase and I take them again right after Gibbs and Bejon. But
2:24if you wanted to flip-flop this, you can because if you promised me promised me a fully healthy 17 weeks from both the
2:31player and the quarterback, my guess is Puka probably outscores Chase more often than not, but there's just a little bit more risk factors for me with Puka, so I
2:40just take Chase. Uh, tier two, JSN, Amanra, Justin Jefferson, and CD Lamb.
2:45So JSN first up, um he has never missed a game in his three-year career. He's got back-to-back seasons of 100 or more
2:52receptions, 119 receptions, nearly 1,800 yards, and 10 touchdowns last year. Um did that on a team ranked 28th in pass
3:02attempts per game. So that's uh one note I want to make is that some detractions from Jason the season is well, the
3:11efficiency is going down. Yeah, obviously. I mean, he was highly efficient last season. it's dropping.
3:15Uh, but if he is less efficient and maybe the offense is less efficient overall, well, maybe the pass attempts then have to go up. If they don't score
3:22a 60-yard touchdown, maybe the pass attempts go up because they actually have to drive down the field. Uh, if they are even just like not scoring a
3:28touchdown as many drives, well, maybe they're not winning as much late. Maybe they're playing from behind more. Maybe it's just taking them longer to sustain
3:34those drives. Like, there are reasons to where the offense can regress, but volume can increase and make up for that. So, he's still going to be fine
3:41among all wide receivers. Last season he ranked first in target share, targets per drop back, uh, weight opportunity rating, percent of team error yards.
3:49Basically, if it's an efficiency metric, he probably was leading the league in it. Um, through the first 12 weeks, this is one one just slight slight concern uh
3:57with JSM. First 12 weeks, he had at least 100 receiving yards, eight of 11 games. That's crazy. I mean, the man was
4:05on pace for I mean, he already dropped a nuke last season. He was on pace for like a double nuke. Okay. from weeks 13
4:12on over 100 yards in only two of nine games counting the playoffs. Uh 19 yards in the playoffs against the 49ers, 27
4:21yards in the playoffs, Super Bowl against the Patriots, 70% snap share both times or more. Um you have Kubak being gone. Uh you have Shahed expected
4:31to see more usage this season. Um close to again 100% chance of the efficiency drops from what we saw last season. Um,
4:39those are the concerns and that's why he's third because you don't have those concerns with Chase and Puka. Um, we've also like seen it for multiple seasons
4:48from them. We've only seen it for one year of him going, you know, this hard uh for JSN.
4:54I'm still taking McAffrey and JT over him. I think that's a big decision point and that's more positionally. I still think that JSN is going to have a great
5:01season. I still have him ranked third, but if we're looking at the value of each position, I still kind of want to
5:06take that running back in the middle of the second or middle of the first round.
5:09So, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, I will take them over JSN in my main league. Um, but he does deserve to be the the third wide receiver because
5:17he's coming off such an exceptional season. Like I said, even if efficiency drops, plays will increase. And if you look at the underlying metrics, they're
5:24insane. Nearly a full route tree. Uh, all green cleared the 90th percentile versus man and press, 80th vers zone.
5:30like he's a great wide receiver and the new offensive coordinator. You can say that adds risk obviously, but um they've been pretty vocal that they want to keep
5:37a lot of the system the same and just bring some things over from what San Fran had been doing. Well, that's music
5:43to our ears. That sounds great to me. Uh keep, you know, this system that's been fantastic for JSN and add some Shanahan
5:50wrinkles. Sounds good, right? Uh fourth, Ammon St. Brown at least 105 receptions for at least,50 yards in four consecutive seasons. He's missed two
6:01games in his five-year career, 115 plus receptions and double- digit touchdowns in three consecutive seasons. Uh the loss of David Montgomery might just make
6:12them even more pass heavy at the goal line. Uh probably the safest round one pick you can make. The only negative is
6:20he just doesn't have that same ceiling that the top three does have. the safety makes up for it. But, you know, if I'm
6:26drafting in the early to middle first round, I would like my wide receiver capable of having a season where they lead all wide receivers by like one, one
6:36and a half, two points per game overall.
6:38I want that in their range of outcomes.
6:39That's not in Ammon's range of outcomes.
6:42He's just exceptionally safe. He's probably going to have another 115 for,300 yards and like 12 touchdowns, but he's probably not going to have 130
6:52for,820.
6:54And because really all the players going above him theoretically could do that, I just prefer them. But exceptionally safe pick, Justin Jefferson after him. Uh, no
7:03wide receiver was more unlucky with touchdown variance than Justin Jefferson last season. Tied for eighth with 10 targets inside the 10 yard line. He
7:13caught one of them and his 29% catch rate in the red zone was third worst among players with at least 10 red zone
7:20targets. We know Justin Jefferson can catch. This is not an issue with him being able to catch. It was a McCarthy
7:25and Brosmer issue last season. Kyler is not an elite quarterback, but I promise you he's better than McCarthy and Max Bromer. Um, Puka, remember I said he has
7:36the highest uh career receiving yards per game in NFL history. Well, before last season, that was Justin Jefferson.
7:45So, right now, Puk is at 95. Going into last year, 96 and a half receiving yards per game for Justin Jefferson. And I
7:52feel like people have a little bit forgotten that a little bit forgotten that we were in love with Kevin Oonnell as an elite play designer, play caller
8:00last season. And then McCarthy tanks the offense. I'm expecting a big bounce back from Justin Jefferson this season.
8:07Amazing pick at the tail end of round one. Also an amazing pick at the tail end of round one is CD Lamb. Uh
8:13back-to-back disappointing seasons for Lamb in 2023. He had 135 receptions, uh 1750 yards, 14 touchdowns, but below 80 receiving yards per game in the last two
8:24years, only six and three touchdowns, too. That's been the real issue, right?
8:28Um you know, in the upper 70s for receiving yards per game. That's not horrible. It's not Justin Jefferson, Puka, Chase, Ammonra, but like he he
8:36he's been good in the receiving yards per game. It's that he's kind of had injuries, right? I mean, of course, you
8:42had Dak miss half of 2024, so that's going to hurt CD Lamb. Then you have Lamb missing time and playing injured a
8:48lot last season. So, that's been a lot to do with it. But the big thing is when you're scoring nine touchdowns across
8:55two seasons, you're not going to produce, you know, round one, round two, even round three value. Uh but Dallas is still in a lead offense. Dak is fully
9:04capable of leading the league in passing yards per game. Uh George Pickkins we thought last season we theorized would open up the offense for CD Lamb and that
9:15did occur. He had the highest yards per reception of his career. Uh it was very clear at times that defenses had to
9:21shift their coverage away from CD Lamb because they were so scared of George Pickins downfield. uh maybe 180 targets isn't really in his range of outcomes
9:29anymore if Pickkins is on the team, but uh in the 11 games that CD Lamb didn't leave early due to injury, he had at
9:37least seven targets in every single game. He had a 17week pace of 167 targets. He also had six for 121 in one
9:46half against the Lions before getting concussed in that one. Um and that was one of the games I'm not even counting
9:51for this high-end uh target. So, uh, he definitely deserves to be in tier two.
9:56Uh, he's another fantastic pick at the tail end of round one. Really with Jefferson and Lamb. I love pairing one of them with like Genty or Saquon.
10:05You're getting a running back still. I I don't want to be at the end of round one, the one two turn, you know, waiting
10:11for the three, four turn for my next pick and not have a running back yet. I want to get one of these really good
10:16running backs at that turn. But if you're someone who doesn't prefer to double dip at running back, you grab Genty, you grab Squan, one of those two.
10:24Great upside, great talent, locked in touches, and you pair them with someone like Jefferson or Lamb who historically have cost us a top four pick. That's a
10:33very, very high-end start, and it's a very safe start because we know the volume's going to be there. We know the
10:38underlying talent is awesome and you haven't risked anything with, you know, you could go wide receivers next, you go running back next, tight end next. You
10:45could do whatever you want at the 34 turn because you've got one of each.
10:49You're not locking yourself in any sort of box. Tier three, AJ Brown, Drake London, Nico Collins, George Pickkins, Devonte Smith, and Chris Olive. So AJ
10:58Brown uh coming off a very disappointing season, second fewest receiving yards of his career, 15th in adjusted points per game. Uh really though the entire Eagles
11:08offense disappointed last season. It is worth noting though it was also the underlying metric. So it wasn't like AJ Brown went out there had a 95th
11:18percentile success rate versus ban and press had a fully green route tree and the production wasn't there. Uh he definitely fell off the route success
11:25rate fell off success for zone man press. Um AJ Brown is a very emotional player even for a wide receiver which is
11:33an emotional position. uh he was very unhappy in Philly last season. I think that contributed to a lot again, not only the commanding of targets, but I
11:44think it contributed a lot to him kind of going out there and like, you know, half effort, not really playing all that
11:50hard. Um he'll be extra motivated in New England. New England is going to get him the football. Um it'll be better
11:56quarterback play. There'll be higher passing volume and more efficient passing volume. Um, I don't think you can put them into the same tier as
12:04Jefferson and Lamb because we know those two are still superstars. If we do look again at the underlying metrics, AJ Brown was not a superstar last season. I
12:13think that bounces back up this year because he is so emotional and he will uh be happier in New England. Uh, but
12:22again, can't put him in that tier. He's a great pick in like the middle of the second round. Uh, basically just once
12:26the elite running backs are gone. I don't want to take AJ Brown this season while you know like your Ken Walker,
12:31Chase Brown, Sea Guan, Genty Hampton, like while all those guys are still on the board, I'd probably also still take Brock Bowers over him. But once that
12:41whole grouping is gone and you get into that mid to mid late second round in a 12 team league, that's basically where
12:48AJ Brown goes. I think he's a great pick in that spot. Uh Drake London after him.
12:53The problem with London is not the targets, it's the efficiency. He's been getting a lot of targets every season, but the quarterback play has been so bad
13:01that there's only so much he can do with those targets. Um, you look at all these other wide receivers we're listing off,
13:07right? Jamar Chase, uh, career yards per target of 8.9, Puka 9.7, JSN nine.
13:14Almond 8.4, uh, Jefferson 9.7, Lamb 8.9, London eight. He's never cleared 8.2 in a season. He's always around eight. It's
13:25less efficient than these top end wide receivers. And I don't know if that's going to change. He's either going to have Tua at quarterback, uh, who's not
13:33going to push the ball downfield. Um, we just kind of know isn't an amazing quarterback or Penn coming off his third
13:40torn ACL. He's also never hit 10 touchdowns in a season. Drake London.
13:45Um, great great wide receiver. But until he's you're gonna hear this a couple times this uh this video, until he is
13:52paired with even an average, but hopefully slightly above average quarterback, the ceiling just isn't as high as the wide receivers going above
14:00him and at times going around him. And so I typically opt for a running back or Bowers in this general round two range
14:07instead of going with Drake London because I just don't think he can burn me if the quarterback play is not going
14:13to be that amazing. And again, that is your default whenever you are deciding between especially two at the wide receipt, but two players in general.
14:21What's the quarterback play? What's the offensive environment? If you love the quarterback, love the offensive environment of one guy, lean towards
14:28them over someone who plays on the Falcons with Tua and Penn. Uh Nico up next. Nico's a superstar wide receiver.
14:36Uh he's top five in a bunch of different efficiency metrics over the last three seasons. His issue is staying healthy and then timing his health with Strad
14:44because it's not like either one of them have missed a ton of time. They seem to always like have a couple weeks and then
14:50Nico gets hurt and then have a couple weeks and then Shout gets hurt. It's just like they can never put together
14:54like a two-month stretch where they're both healthy, both clicking and we see it week in week out from Nico Collins.
15:01Uh but again, the underlying metrics are fantastic.
15:06It's very obvious that he is a superstar wide receiver. My biggest concern isn't that though. It's the Houston defense just being really, really good. Uh, and
15:14them bringing in Dave Montgomery and basically saying, "Okay, we're hoping to improve the ground game. We know the defense is great. Can we win games by
15:22being decently efficient on the ground, uh, not turning the ball over that much, forcing other teams into these lowscoring games, get ahead, force the
15:31other team to pass at a high rate, and then our defense just will destroy them, right? We will rip them apart with this
15:36pass rush. will cause turnovers and then we can just, you know, end things on the ground. And that can lead to a lot of
15:42games where you're like, man, if they just threw the ball a little bit more often, Nico's dropping nukes, but it doesn't happen. So, um, I feel
15:50similarish that I do with Drake London, but I think Nico's a better wide receiver. I think CJ Stout is a better
15:58quarterback. Um, and we have seen it, we've seen that from high-end production from Nico a little bit more often. So, I
16:05do draft Nico more. Um, Nico also goes later in draft, so it's easier to get him. Um, I mean, you saw on the, um,
16:13video where I talked about my most drafted players. I just a lot of times end up at an early first round pick
16:18being like, "Okay, let's just go like Bejan or Gibbs, grab Nico, then grab Bree Hollik." It's a very natural start to draft. So, I get him a decent amount,
16:25but again, you can't put him into those top tier of players because the quarterback play is more of an unknown.
16:31Um, we have that hope because we saw CJ Stra be amazing in his rookie season.
16:36Um, so there again, there's way more hope for Nico in terms of hitting that high-end ceiling. Uh, but you can't put
16:41him to the tier above because of quarterback play again. Uh, George Pickkins first wide receiver, two in the rankings, 93 receptions, over,400 yards,
16:49nine touchdowns last season career, 9.9 yards per target. Very elite. He's never been below 15.3 yards per reception. by far his highest catch rate of his career
16:59in year one with Dallas. That was to be expected. Literally everything we talked about for George Pickkins, why he was a
17:05must draft player last season, why we were all over him on underdog is we've got a pretty efficient wide receiver, still very young, going from a low
17:14volume offense to a super high volume offense with elite contingent upside with elite weekly upside. It was just so obvious he was going to be amazing. the
17:22price tag. I think it has like sticker shock for people right now because we were drafting him every time in round
17:28five. Well, now you have to draft him at the two three turn and it can feel a little bit weird paying that mid-round
17:34price tag for him last season, seeing the good year, but then looking and being like, wait, I have to take him in
17:39the early third round right now. Uh, but he is worth it. He's only 25 years old.
17:44He's only missed three games in his four-year career. Um, he was great last year for Dallas. the contingent upside remains insane. Uh if CD Lamb were to
17:54miss significant time, you've got him as like a top five wide receiver in those weeks. Um there's very little systemic risk in Dallas. And so truly like even
18:03if you have CD Lamb healthy all season, George Pickkins is going to be a really solid pick in the early third round. Uh
18:10Dvontto Smith after him uh now the clear alpha in Philly. Kevin Patulo is also gone. So there's optimism there that any
18:18offensive coordinator can improve things. But, uh, people seem to really like Shawn Manion. Um, I feel like people don't think Devontto Smith can be
18:26a number one wide receiver because of his size. And I just don't see it that way. He's only missed five games in his
18:32five-year career. He's proven that he can beat press man coverage on the outside. That's very important to be a number one. Um, he's proven that he can
18:39be a highly efficient wide receiver in the NFL after being a highly efficient wide receiver in college. He's commanded a great uh target share in the games. AJ
18:47Brown misses has missed it. and even he's commanded a high in target share in the games that AJ Brown has played in.
18:52Uh there's just no evidence that he can't be. I think that's the thing.
18:55People like, "Oh, he can't be in number one." Well, there's no evidence that he cannot. Maybe he can't be. Maybe he'll
19:00prove me wrong this season, but there is no evidence to support that. So, you're just kind of saying that to say that um
19:07I think there is a path to being a top five uh wide receiver in terms of target share this season. I don't know about
19:13production if you can be a top five wide receiver, but does the offense take that step forward? But I think that's really
19:18the big thing is if the offense looks like last year, no, he's not going to be a top five wide receiver, even if he was
19:24top five in target share. But the kid was 20th in target share last season with AJ Brown there. And they've only
19:30replaced AJ Brown with Wix, Lemon, and Sters, who, let's be honest, like Lemon and Sters is going to kind of eat into
19:36each other's production. Wix is not that good. Like, it is very obvious that Damont Smith is the clear number one wide receiver here. He could have a 30
19:4331 32% target share. And I don't really see a lot of downside. Dantavian Wixs is not going out there and commanding a 25%
19:50target share. Lemon Sters like good players, but rookie is going to be brought along relatively slowly. Um we might not even have Mai Lemon like in
20:01two wide receiver sets. Sters will still start the season behind Bowowers and and sure he'll play when they run two end
20:07sets, but and he's not going to have a 20% target share. AJ Brown's leaving behind so many targets and those three
20:13are not commanding all of those because they're also replacing some players routes as well. We're going to see a huge [snorts] target share for Dor
20:20Smith. So unless this offense is terrible, he's going to be a really good pick this season. Uh and then Chris Olive, the biggest concerns are missing
20:28time. When he's out there, he's going to be amazing and you're going to want pieces of the Saints offense. The concerns are well, you know, he's had so
20:36many concussions that like he suffers one concussion, he could miss a month, he suffers two concussions, he could be out for the season or career could be
20:42over. Uh, and then the blood clots add like a new wrinkle, the blood clots earlier this year. Um, even if he's good
20:49to go from that, he also missed a lot of time training during that time he was recovering from that. Um, I don't think
20:54he was allowed to be in contact drills until very recently. Um, so that's basically the concern and that he's only done it once technically, but I don't
21:03think that's a big concern. Uh, I don't think that it was like a blip in the pan. We always knew that Olaf was a
21:08great wide receiver. It was just like, you know, quarterback play mixed with can he stay healthy really, which again, he had the one healthy season last year.
21:17That's the risk here is that we've always known he's been good. He just can't put it all together. 100 receptions, 1163 yards, nine touchdowns
21:25last season. Um, people might look at that and be like, "Oh, that actually isn't that great of a season." But that
21:30counts the Rattler starts. Um, his efficiency skyrocketed once Chuck took over at quarterback. His yards per target jumped from pathetic 6.1 up to
21:38nine. Remember earlier in the year we were like, "Wow, this kid gets like 12 targets every week and somehow is consistently turning it into less than
21:45100 receiving yards. That was the Rattler effect." Um, seasonl long pace jumped to 1,400 yards, over 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns with Shuck at
21:54quarterback. Uh we know the Saints are going to run a lot of plays. They play in a dome. Schedule's easy. Uh team
22:00seems really excited about Chuck in year two. Uh remains a risky pick in round three because of the concussions, the blood clots, the injury risks uh that
22:09he's just like not been able to stay fully healthy. Um plus you have uh the additions of Tyson ETN. Does that kind
22:15of change uh kind of the target shares and dynamic there? Um but I still think you want pieces of this offense. I think
22:22if you get to this range, uh, you're at the end of tier three, you're in this round three range, you need a wide
22:27receiver. I don't think I'd be too concerned. I would kind of say, okay, the risk is worth it because this offense could be pretty solid. Uh, we
22:34know they're going to run a lot of plays. They should be much more efficient than recent seasons. And maybe the additions of Tyson of ETN just
22:40elevate the ceiling of the offense. Um, which basically make up for uh potential opportunity shares being lower. Tier four, T. Higgins, Embuka, Malik
22:50Neighbors, Z Flowers, Lam Con, Rashi Rice, T McMillan, and Garrett Wilson. A pretty big tier, honestly. But a lot of these picks are really, really, really
23:00similar. Now, as we'll get to at the end of this tier, I think people sometimes say, "Oh, it's a big tier. Uh, similar
23:07picks. I want to be at the end." Well, no. I still want to be at the beginning.
23:11There's a reason I have T and Ibuka and Neighbors and Z and Lad ahead of Rice and Ted and Garrett. We we'll get to
23:18those reasons, but there's a reason they are at the end. So, it's not as simple as saying I want to draft the end of the
23:23tier. No, I I mean, I want to draft the beginning of the tier. Um, but they are similar picks with similarish ranges of
23:32outcome. I just feel a lot better about the players at the beginning of the tier. So, T. Higgins, um, he's never
23:38played a fully healthy 17 weeks. That's probably the biggest reason he's not in tier three. He's missed 12 games over the last couple seasons. uh plenty of
23:46games where he did play, but he limped off the field. So, even just looking at that, you're like, there's no way he's
23:51he's never played a healthy game. Like, if you had him on your roster, you're like, I can never watch him go out
23:56there, take a hit, and not see him limp off the field. It just seems like he's always doing that. Um when he's healthy,
24:03he's around two talent. And so, it's really frustrating that how often he does get injured. Uh probably has the highest contingent upside of any wide
24:11receiver. maybe Pickkins as well, but you know, Jamar Chase goes down and every week T. Higgins is going to project as like a top three wide
24:18receiver in fantasy. Uh he's got 21 touchdowns over 27 games in the last two seasons. Uh only three 100yard games though over those 27. And that is
24:29basically what you get with T. Higgins.
24:31He's going to get hurt a lot. He's going to limp off the field. He's not going to have that many yards. You're like,
24:35where's the production? But then he has like multiple two touchdown games. he scores like the touchdowns are just kind of always there for him. Uh probably not
24:44someone I would personally draft in my main reraft league. So if you had one league you were like, you know, most
24:51wanting to win, most wanting to do well.
24:54I just think he's he's so frustrating of a wide receiver that I would probably pass on him for hopefully the the tail
25:01end of those elite running backs. Um but yeah, he he's a good pick. I'll take him in like stacks on underdog. uh
25:07Amechabuka after him went off to start last season. Uh then he picks up the hamstring injury, then Baker picks up the shoulder injury, and his efficiency
25:16really fell off a cliff after that. Um had a seasonl long pace of 76 receptions, nearly 1300 yards, 12 touchdowns over the first nine weeks and
25:25then over the final eight, he cleared 42 yards one time. It was basically the opposite of like every single like elite, you know, elite prospect rookie
25:34season you can think of.
25:35Almost always we see the second half of a elite prospect's rookie season. That's when they break out. That is just the
25:42natural progression. Takes a long time to learn wide receiver. Teams don't fully trust them with the play calling and learning all the positions and
25:49blocking and all these things in week one. But as we get to the second half, a lot of times postby teams trust them
25:55more. The usage ramps up. It usually is not the case that elite rookie wide receiver goes off to start the year and
26:00then does nothing in the second half, but that was the case with EMCA. And that should also tell us something. He's
26:07a great wide receiver. The team really trusted injuries. You do not see this happen unless he's hurt. The quarterback is hurt. There's some underlying reason
26:16as to why the production drops off so much. Um you can see it in his GPS tracking data. He was much slower, was
26:22not hitting top speeds as much in the second half of the season. You can see it in um accuracy metrics that Baker
26:28Mayfield was way less accurate in the second half of the season. not only from the first part of the season, but from
26:33his season his like career historically.
26:35Um that that's why I really would not be too concerned about the second half. Um also they they kind of were forced into
26:43playing him X because Mike Evans got hurt and so they anticipated last season Evans is the X every single play. We can
26:49play a Mecca at um you know the slot. We can play him at Z. That's like his natural positions. They were forced to
26:55play him in the X, forced to have him run a ton of downfield routes, uh, deep post routes, just routes that are not
27:01his strongest suit. This off season, they make it a point like they have now uh, McMillan back healthy because remember, he also got hurt in camp. Uh,
27:09McMillan is back healthy. Uh, they draft Ted Hurst who can play um, potentially a sacrificial X for this offense. Um, and
27:16that'll allow them to move um, Ibuka and Godwin into much more natural spots for both of them. So I I really just think I
27:25think he could drop a nuke this season.
27:26I really think that Amecha Buuka is gonna have a phenomenal season. We were all over him last year. Outperformed just based on the early season
27:33production. Uh we could see that early season production easily over the entire season. Uh and we could see it be even
27:38more like we could really have a top seven season for Ibuka this year. Great pick. Uh Malik Neighbors after him the
27:44ultimate upside play but also as of recording this on July 23rd uh we don't know how healthy he is. So, a very high
27:51upside play, but a very low floor as well. Um, hasn't looked healthy yet, but we also have very limited, uh, video
27:57samples of him doing anything. Um, I think we're probably going to start getting things, you know, camps are starting to open right now. Uh, we're
28:04going to have these guys actually out there running routes and then we can really see, um, I don't think he's going
28:09to be a full co when camp starts. Uh, and because you don't need that. Also, he's a round one wide receiver and
28:14you're getting him in this round three, four range because of the injury. So, don't say, "Oh, he's not going to start
28:19the season healthy. you can't draft him here. I mean, can't draft him in round one, round two, early round three. But
28:24as we start to get towards that round three, four return, the risk starts to become worth it. You start to say, you
28:31know, second half of the year, if we're anticipating him being a wide receiver one in fantasy, you know, top seven wide
28:36receiver, upside to be top five, we just don't know. Um, also if you look at data, um, historically young, very athletic wide receivers, those are the
28:46ones who recover quicker and recover um, go back to their baseline production much faster coming off a torn ACL. If you're like 28, 29 years old, if you
28:56were, you know, a good athlete for a wide receiver in the NFL, obviously, they're all good athletes. Um, if you're like an average athlete that's older,
29:04you recover much slower. You don't return to that production as quickly.
29:07Malik Neighbors is very young, very athletic. You expect him to return to the production faster than normal. So, uh I think he's worth it in round three,
29:16round four in this general range. Uh just because like once he is healthy, especially if an IR spot, once he is
29:22healthy, uh he's going to smash. And then also, if you think you're better in the league, like if you think like I
29:26make the playoffs every year, I'm usually a top three team, you can acquire that risk early on because you're still going to build a great
29:34roster for the rest of the draft. you think you can start the correct players, you think you can stream a little bit
29:39better to have solid production to start the year. And then if you by the second half have a wide receiver one you got in
29:46round four, now all of a sudden you're elevating in a way you you couldn't through trades or free agency. Z Flowers
29:52after him. Um started to warm up a lot more to Z Flowers in recent weeks. Yards per game have increased from 54 to 62 to
29:5971 over his first three seasons. yards per target have increased from 7.9 to 9.1 to 10.3 last season. He's only missed one game in his three-year
30:09career. He cleared the 90th percentile versus uh zone last season. We love zone Peters. Um maxed out at six touchdowns, though. Probably the biggest downfall
30:19for Z Flowers is the receptions are there, the yards are there, the opportunity share is there, but when they get into the red zone, it is the
30:27tight ends and it is Derrick Henry and it is occasionally Lamar, but people overrate how much Lamar actually runs it in the red zone. Um, and honestly, even
30:35even the targets, like he's not going to go out there and have 160 targets. He's maxed out at 118. The thing is, he's
30:41been so efficient the last two seasons.
30:43And with that efficiency rising, with him getting just better underlying metrics, improving everything. Like, sure, he lacks the ceiling that a lot of
30:51other wide receivers have, but he makes up for it in the fact that he is always out there. He's always getting you the
30:57yards and receptions. It's a very stable floor. Maybe better in full PPR than in half PPR, but that floor is really
31:04awesome. And that floor is not 50 yards.
31:06it's, you know, if he's going out there and averaging 70 yards per game, not having that many duds, and who knows,
31:12maybe he does have a spike season for touchdowns coming. Uh, I don't know. I I've warmed up to him a lot more
31:18recently because that assured production is really nice, especially if you go running back heavy early on. Like if you draft him um even in like the tail end
31:28of round three if you went double running back. What if you drafted Genty and Saquon and you potentially have two superstar running back ones and you're
31:35like I just don't want to screw up at wide receiver and you draft Z Flowers.
31:39Maybe he only like returns value at that spot. But maybe that's all you need is someone to just be solid, be uh
31:46consistent because if you have two superstar running back ones to pair with him, you don't need him to go out there
31:51and be amazing. You just don't want to screw up the pick. uh lad after him. Uh should be no secret by now that I'm all
31:58in on the Chargers this season. Lad saw his production really dip last year, but again, the underlying metrics were still strong. That's what you want to look at
32:06for these players who see a drop in production when there's something else going on. If you're like, okay, production dropped, but the offensive
32:12line fell apart. Was it that or did they get worse as a receiver? He cleared the 88th percentile versus man, zone, and
32:18press. The issue was the offense. It was not lad getting worse in year two. you bring in Mike McDaniel, uh, you fix the
32:26offensive line. Like, I really think this offense is going off this year. Um, and I think that the market is severely
32:33underrating the touchdown upside for the Chargers this season. And so, I want all of their players. If the market is going
32:40to underrate their touchdowns by, you know, seven to 10 touchdowns or something like that, everyone is going to outperform because when you think
32:48about ADP, ADP is based on projections.
32:51So I do projections, other sites do projections, these sites do projections, and we project the Chargers for X touchdowns on offense. Well, if they
32:59vastly outperform that, every single player's touchdowns actually end up being much higher than projected, and so they return value on ADP. Uh even if you
33:08don't have an elite touchdown score, if there just way more touchdowns going around, you're also on the field more.
33:12There's more plays, just more production overall, and you're still probably going to score more than expected. uh Rashi Rice after him. Uh I rarely draft Rice.
33:21Um so these last three uh Rice, Tet, and Garrett Wilson, I just don't draft them that much. Sort of concerning because
33:30they're all good players. Um but there's just reasons to kind of avoid them. For Rice, he's just so bad against man
33:37coverage. Uh basically all of his success is against, you know, short zone beaters. And you I don't know. It just it's felt like last season they're
33:48really forcing him the football and it just didn't work. And so I feel like they're going to go into this offseason
33:52be like, "Okay, we can't just force him the ball every single play. His yards per target cratered to 7.3. He's got off
34:00the field concerns. Uh he's got health concerns. His quarterback is coming off a torn ACL. Um they're probably going to lean more runheavy this season. Um it's
34:08not like we're lacking in superstar wide receivers in this range. I just I never feel good taking him. you have to take
34:14him with a two three turn. I don't know.
34:16It's just it's a little rich for me. Um T McMillan 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, seven touchdowns as a rookie. Only 14
34:23other wide receivers have done that in NFL history. Pretty obvious he's going to be a superstar wide receiver for a long time. But also pretty obvious that
34:30Bryce Young is limiting this offense.
34:33And that's really the only reason that Tet goes at the end of this tier is if he were on the Bengals and you swapped
34:41him with T. Higgins, he'd be at the beginning of this tier. He might be in the tier above. But Bryce Young was 35th
34:46in highly accurate throw rate last season, 35th in yards per pass attempts, 39th in deep throw percentage, 39th in AOT. Uh the Panthers were 25th in
34:57dropbacks per game because they're trying to hide him as much as possible.
35:01He's a superstar talent. I don't think he can produce as a superstar wide receiver until he gets a quarterback upgrade. And then Garrett Wilson,
35:07honestly, his career has been very similar to the story I just told for Tet. Uh very obvious that Garrett Wilson is a star wide receiver. He committed at
35:15least 147 targets in each of his first three seasons. Uh absolutely dominant across the entire route tree. Underline metrics fantastic. The problem for him
35:25has always been quarterback play. Um he did get that one year with Aaron Rogers, but that also came with Devont Adams uh
35:32playing across from him. You know, he's obviously a superstar as well.
35:36This season there's more optimism surrounding the Jets. They get Gino at quarterback. That'll be the second best quarterback he's played with. They get
35:43Omar Cooper. They get Sadi. Um they have a full off seasonason to develop. Adnai Mitchell who they're very excited about.
35:49Um he's probably going to open the season two wide receiver sets over Omar Cooper. Um so the offense should be better and yet it's the Jets. And how
35:56much do you actually trust them being a lot better? They are still tied with the Cardinals for the lowest implied team
36:02total this season. Uh, so betting markets still view them as a bottom two offense, but clearly a bottom five offense. Um, similar pick to me as T.
36:11Both are great wide receiver talents, but their situation is going to limit their ceiling. And so I got to put them
36:16at the bottom of this tier, and I don't draft them that much. I do not draft Rice, Tet, or Garrett Wilson very often.
36:22Tier five, Burden, Evans, McLuren, Adams, Wadd, JM Mo, and DJ Moore. Uh, for Luther, Burden. Uh, okay. How about this entire tier is similarish to the
36:33burden take here in that a lot of unknowns. So with every single player besides maybe Terry McLuren and J Mo, but we'll get to kind of JO's concerns
36:43after that. Um for most of this tier, it's like there's a lot more things we don't know than we know in tier 4. Um
36:51Burden maybe has the most among this tier of these unknowns. Uh, is he going to get a lot more targets with the departure of DJ Moore into his
37:01second season or do they want him to be that super efficient player that still never sees the high-end volume kind of
37:08like Jameson Williams? Um, we don't know. Um, if he does see a lot more targets, is he the number one or is that
37:17more Dunay? Is that more Coulson Lovelin? We don't know. Do the Bears even take a step forward in year two under Ben Johnson? I don't think anyone
37:25knows the answers to any of these right now. I don't know that we'll know the answer to a lot of them uh come even the
37:30end of training camp. Um so we kind of have to guess a little bit or kind of watch reports in camp and make a much
37:36more educated guess.
37:38I think he and Lovelin are the more likely to to lead this team in targets just because they were handpicked by Ben
37:44Johnson and they did both see the roles expand a lot in the second half of the rookie seasons and they were great in
37:48those expanded roles. Um, and Caleb also has talked about, you know, being much more confident heading into year two.
37:55And I I just think it makes a lot of sense, right? When we have these young quarterbacks, that happens a lot. Very
38:00young quarterback, still raw in the NFL, still a lot to learn, and a new coordinator comes in with a very complex
38:06system. Yeah. A lot of times it takes them a year to kind of get comfortable with it. And then going into the next
38:11off seasonason, that's when they kind of put it all together. So, I think it makes sense they take that step forward.
38:15And I think it makes sense that Ben Johnson just likes what he sees uh from these two his prospects, then likes what
38:22he saw um for them in the second half of the rookie season, and he's going to expand their role more than a Doomsday.
38:28Um but we don't know exactly what the target share is going to be. We don't know exactly how much the efficiency
38:35will drop off with that increase of target share. So, a lot of unknowns, but a lot of excitement behind Burning because he was really efficient. I think
38:42it was like uh in the last like 20 years the second don't quote me on this exact stat but roughly the last 20 years
38:49second highest yard to route run for a rookie again it was limited but that's very exciting obviously he's behind only Jamar Chase there uh Mike Evans after
38:57him well the biggest concern is the age and his wide receiver changing teams uh turns 33 in August uh so obviously not
39:03going to be peak production from him anymore but uh when you've got a guy that could score 15 touchdowns you take
39:09notice I mean he's had 11 or more touchdowns s in four the last five seasons heading into last year. Of course, gets injured last year, so we
39:17can't really score double- digit touchdowns. Uh he's just routinely amongst what the top five players you want in the red zone. If you could like
39:25handpick who you have with the two yard line, who am I throwing to? It's Adams and it's Mike Evans. And I just get a
39:31lot of the same vibes as Adams last year that Shanahan was like, "Okay, I want a red zone threat. I want Mike Evans." And
39:38whenever Shanahan goes out there and handpicks someone like Mike Evans, you know, the role is there. He's not thinking long term. He's not thinking
39:45about development. He's not thinking about a blocking role. He's saying, "Oh, look, uh, the top three most dominant players in the red zone. I'd like to add
39:55you to my team, even at age 33." Yeah, he envisions a red zone role similar to what Adams had last season. I think a
40:02lot of the league is trying to emulate what the Rams did last year. And this is Shanahan emulating that to some degree.
40:08So better in half PPR than full, but he's a guy I want on my team this season because I think he can have 15 or more
40:14touchdowns. Uh Terry McLuren, as things stand right now, they have still not added another free agent wide receiver or a free agent wide receiver. Um every
40:23day that they don't add someone is another day that that player cannot learn the system. And so as we go into
40:30August, every single day we get closer to the season, it's like, hey, uh, if they're not adding someone, the role for
40:36Terry McLaren is going to be crazy. His only competition is Antonio Williams, Luke McAffrey, uh, Trayon Burks, Jaylen Lane, Chicka Conquo. That is not
40:44high-end competition. He's got a really good quarterback. Um, I do think they'll go after Diggs or like trade for someone. I think they're going to bring
40:50someone else in, but again, every single day that goes by that they don't do that is another day that they're installing a
40:56scheme for the players currently on the roster. Um I they've made comments about moving him around the formation more.
41:03They've made comments about just force feeding him the football, trying to get him like 10 targets every single week.
41:08He's a very safe pick. Uh very likely to finish the wide receiver, too.
41:12relatively unlikely to finish as a wide receiver one, but if you're in this range, kind of like with Zay Flowers, if
41:17you want that safe pick at wide receiver, it's Terry McLuren. Uh Adams after him, at least 10 touchdown catches in seven of the last 10 years. That's
41:28insane. Coming off uh his third most yards per reception of his career, but the efficiency was down. So, he was used
41:35as that downfield weapon, used as that red zone weapon, second lowest yards per target since 2015. uh someone at I think
41:42it was established the edge podcast made a really good point. I don't remember who it is. Um that he was used in that
41:48downfield role and so that he wasn't super successful in that role.
41:54Um I think they wanted to get more out of him in that sense. But when people point to the yards per target, we have
42:00to also consider he was heavily used in the red zone. He had a ton of touchdown catches. played 14 games, caught 14
42:06touchdowns, had a like he was by far the number one like I know target inside the 10 yard line guy last season. A lot of
42:13targets in the red zone, it's not like a highly efficient place, right? If you're at the two yard line, the best case
42:18scenario is a two- yard touchdown. And so the yards per target, of course, is going to be lower if you're not a highly
42:23targeted wide receiver. And a lot of those targets come very close to the end zone. Even if you come down with that
42:30touchdown reception, which is very difficult on a fade route, you're still only having two yards. And so if it they like throw two fade routes, that's two
42:38routes run. That's two yards. It's like it's not going to be a highly efficient role, if that makes sense. So we can't
42:44just look at those yards uh per target and knock him too much because the role in the red zone was so strong. Um having
42:51said that, again, he still turns 34 in December. They didn't love what they got from the downfield role. You don't love
42:57that they were like kind of seeing if they could get AJ Brown this off seasonason. Um if they were locked in
43:04with Adams as the number two wide receiver behind Puka, that wouldn't be happening. But you do love the touchdowns. Uh fantasy is still a game
43:10of touchdowns, especially as passing volume drops, uh as teams really focus on being as safe as possible on the limited amount of drives going to have
43:19each game. If someone can score a touchdown per game, you want them on your fantasy team. So, even if officially drops, uh, I just think
43:26you're kind of baking that in. He was ninth in adjusted points per game last season. You're getting him as a wide
43:31receiver with 24. He can see less volume. He can see fewer touchdowns. He can see decreased efficiency. He's still going to be the number one featured
43:39player in the red zone among like all wide receivers in the NFL on the number one scoring team in the NFL. So, I think
43:45the ADP more than makes up for that drop off. He's a great pick this season. Uh, Jaylen Wadd, it's not that I think Wadd
43:52is bad or even overrated. I mean, I've talked in recent seasons about how much I like the talent on Jaylen Wadd. I know
43:58he's an awesome wide receiver. I just don't love him in Denver. I know there's a lot of total volume, but they spread
44:04the ball around so much. And I still think Sutton is a really good wide receiver. Maybe um I talk about Sutton
44:12negatively sometimes because in fantasy in a seasonl long sense, maybe he doesn't really have that ceiling. But in terms of like actual NFL production,
44:20he's still a very good wide receiver that's going to command a pretty solid target share. Um, I don't know. I just
44:26don't see Wadd having that high end of a target share. We know that he's not a red zone weapon. He's got 27 touchdowns
44:34in 78 career games. Uh, that's less than six touchdowns per 17 weeks. I don't think that's going to spike in Denver.
44:41They use the running backs a ton in the red zone. They'll use tight ends. Sutton will still get usage. like we're
44:46probably not going to see a 1300 yard 12 touchdown season from uh Jaylen Wadd. So you you need that production to be
44:54highly efficient. I I I think it comes down to this. I think that Wadd does more for the Broncos in terms of winning
45:01football games for them than he does for our fantasy teams. I think it's a great guy that they went out and traded for. I
45:08think he's going to elevate the offense, make them really good, but I don't think that's going to translate to being a
45:14smash pick in the middle of the fourth round of fantasy football. That's exactly where I'm at right now. I like other guys at that cost. Uh JMO after
45:23him. Uh a player that honestly I'm mostly fading in season long this year.
45:29Um I will never fade him in best. I have a decent amount of teams that have like full Lion stacks because if the loss of
45:36Dave Montgomery actually makes them throw the ball a ton more, my goodness, the upside of this offense is insane.
45:41So, um I will absolutely take him as part of a stack for that weekly ceiling.
45:46I just hate that volatility in season long. Uh and I actually want to talk about that for one second.
45:53Uh people have been confused about this whole best ball versus reddraft debate as far as upside versus safety goes.
46:02When I say um a very safe pick with a questionable ceiling is better in baseball, I'm talking about that from a
46:11seasonl long perspective. In baseball, um the dead roster spots really kill your team. So if you draft someone and they just end up being really bad in
46:19fantasy all season, that hurts a ton.
46:21you want to draft a lot of players that you're very confident will not bust, will slightly outperform the ADP. Um, that could be, you know, the Courtland
46:30Sutton type, uh, where the production is consistent every week, or it could be someone like J Mo who's very volatile, but across a whole season, I know what
46:38we're getting from JO. It's very unlikely that across a full season, when you look at the end of season stat line,
46:44that Jameson Williams underperforms significantly. He's going to be solid in a reddraft league. I'm much more willing to take a shot on someone with a
46:54volatile seasonl long outlook because I can make up for drafting a bust in free agency on the trade market or on my
47:03bench. The dead roster spot still hurts.
47:05You still don't want to draft players who end up being bad, but it doesn't hurt nearly as much as in baseball where
47:11you cannot make waiver moves and you cannot trade for players to replace them. Someone like Jameson Williams is not volatile season long, but he's super
47:20volatile week to week and so he's really frustrating in a start sit league because he could either have zero points, literally zero, multiple times
47:28last season, a full snapshare, uh, or 30, and you never quite know when each is coming. He could have zero points in
47:34a game where they score 40 as an offense. I'm cool with that in baseball because I can capture those spikes more
47:41and I know from a seasonl long perspective he's going to give me that production. I'm not taking on any risk that he's going to be awful this year.
47:50But in reddraft I have to actually choose who I start every week and that can be really frustrating when he puts
47:56up zero points and he does that way more often than a lot of players going around him. Uh, so I doubt in my main reddraft
48:04league I would draft him, but I will draft him a decent amount on underdog. I hope that makes sense. DJ Moore, um, I
48:11also don't draft DJ Moore a ton, but I see the path. And whenever I draft Josh Allen on underdog, I do try and draft DJ
48:18Moore. U, it worries me a little bit that his underlying success versus man verse zone was so bad last season. Uh he
48:25was legit unusable at times in fantasy which is wild because he was in every down wide receiver in a Ben Johnson
48:31system who had been highly productive for years years. Like he was someone that we've loved in fantasy. Then he plays for Ben Johnson and you're like
48:40let's go like this is going to be amazing and he did nothing. He was super unusable. Zero 100 yard games, one game
48:47over 73 receiving yards. He had seven games below 22 receiving yards again on a full snap share. Um they basically used him as a sacrificial ex wide
48:58receiver. I don't think they're going to do that in Buffalo though. Um I think Moore is also just a better fit for I
49:07mean almost every wide receiver in the NFL is a better fit for Josh Allen than Caleb Williams. But I think with Caleb
49:12they were playing within the structure of the offense and the structure of the offense was not featuring DJ Moore. role in the offense was not that strong. With
49:19Josh Allen, it's less about within the structure of the offense and it's more get open. And when I scramble, get downfield. And I think that just fits DJ
49:28Moore a little bit better. They're not going to just throw them to the X spot and be like, "All right, be happy with
49:32your three targets this week." I think it's more so get open. If you're open, I'm going to find you very accurately,
49:38very deep downfield with Josh Allen. So, I think that just unlocks his ceiling.
49:42Again, if they can get that chemistry and and basically if if camp reports are indicating that this these two are really jelling together, I'll move him
49:50up. I'm not like afraid of DJ Moore this season. I love him as a player. U I'm a little hesitant right now because it
49:55comes with the round five price tag and that's aggressive, but if we see in camp that things are looking great, I'll
50:00change that tune. Um because again, he fits so much better in Buffalo than in Chicago. But we didn't know that. We
50:06didn't know that he was going to be a sacrificial ex going into last season.
50:09It became evident that that was going to happen, but we didn't know that going into the year. Uh, tier six, Adun,
50:16Christian Watson, Tate, Brian Thomas Jr., Jordan Tyson, Parker Washington, and Marvin Harrison Jr., um, Adun, I just like Burton and Lovelin more um,
50:26than I like Adun this season. I think again, Ben Johnson handpicked them for his system. Um, they were both great down the stretch last year. These two
50:34are just I think more likely to increase in their production uh given the departure of DJ Moore and them being in
50:40year two. And so I lean a lot more towards Burden and um and Coulson Lovelin. Um and then the foot the foot's
50:49weird. Like you don't love those comments. Um he's going out there saying like, "This is my new normal. Um it's like when you tear an ACL, you're never
50:57back to normal." I don't want my wide receiver saying that. It just makes me feel uncomfortable. uh even if people are saying he looks the same, he's
51:05saying he's never going to be the same.
51:07I don't know. It's very odd and I just don't want to take that risk in this range. So, um typically opt for someone
51:13else, but sometimes a Dunay does fall to a pretty good spot. And like I mean, if we got to this tier six range and a Dun
51:19is a top wide receiver and a wide receiver, I'll still take him. But yeah, it's really weird comments from him.
51:24Christian Watson up next. Uh they didn't do anything to replace Romeo Dobs, replace Dontavon Wixs. um seems like they're good with just sticking with
51:32those three wide receivers. Uh likely going to play more 11 personnel. Uh Watson seems poised for a breakout.
51:40Let's just not forget he's played four years now. He has never been over 620 receiving yards in his career. He's also
51:46had more than five receptions and only two of 51 career games. Jordan Love was the second least accurate quarterback over the last three years on throws 10
51:56or more yards downfield. It feels like you're paying a premium for a breakout that has still not happened yet. For a
52:03lot of other players, at least you're paying a premium for the production that occurred. You're paying a premium for people saying, "I think he's going to be
52:10better moving forward." Um, I don't love taking Christian Watson at the 56 turn.
52:14Uh, Carnell Tate, fourth overall draft pick by the Titans, steps right into a massive target share. Brian Dal not afraid to say, "You're my best player.
52:23Here's the football." Like, he is going to give the football to his best guys.
52:26Um, Tate's pretty obviously their best wide receiver. He's tied to Cam Ward, though, so let's watch Camp. Um, is Cam Ward going to continue being a bottom
52:34three quarterback? In which case, I don't know the upside for Carell Tate this season. U, but, you know, if Cam Ward, I mean, he was number one overall
52:41pick and like he was still a good prospect and I think he can still be pretty good. Uh if Cam Ward can take
52:46that next step and Dave rejuvenates the offense and features Carnell Tate, there is significant upside for Tate this season who is a very good wide receiver
52:55prospect. Uh but it is can the quarterback prospect improve and can this wide receiver prospect be as good as we think. Still unknowns there
53:02obviously and a coaching change. Uh Brian Thomas Jr.
53:07Upside play floor is what we saw last season and it was not fun. But 87 receptions for nearly 1300 yards, 10
53:13touchdowns as a rookie. Odell is the only other wide receiver in NFL history to hit all of those stat lines in their
53:20rookie season. Only six other wide receivers have done that if you count yours one and two. That's how good the rookie season was. Odell Beckham Jr.,
53:29Isaac Bruce, Justin Jefferson, Sterling Sharp, Larry Fitzgerald, and AJ Brown.
53:34Those are the other six wide receivers in year one or year tier tier two to have 87 for 1282 and 10 touchdowns or
53:42more. Hit all three of those metrics. Um the argument people make is they're like, "Wow, yeah, but he did that with
53:47M. Jones, not Trevor Lawrence." As if M.
53:50Jones is a god and then Trevor Lawrence is a mere mortal. Like it's it's crazy the way people talk about that
53:55difference. I think it was more well he was just highly efficient downfield.
53:59Like it wasn't that M. Jones was insane and that connection is, you know, something that no one could possibly match. It's that every time he threw the
54:07ball downfield, it seemed like he was coming down with the reception. Last season, I think a lot of it was the
54:12injury. You saw a lot of success rates fall off a cliff. You saw him be very inefficient deep downfield. Um, very
54:19inefficient over the middle of the field in contested catches in the red zone.
54:22All these areas where he's got to go up and get the ball in a contested situation. He just looked hurt really.
54:28He just looked like he wasn't himself.
54:31If he goes back to his rookie season production there or rookie season like talent, I mean, he's going to be a smash
54:37in this general range. Uh, one red zone catch last year on six targets. One. In his rookie season, he had 11 red zone
54:44catches on 16 targets. Like, and the people argue also that there was too many wide receivers in Jacksonville.
54:52Yeah, but the contingent upside. If one of the four gets injured and all of a sudden the other three are like every
54:57down players, my goodness, the upside is insane. And Brian Thomas is one that's not coming off the field. So, you can
55:02argue there's too many wide receivers for the other three. But Brian Thomas is the very obvious ex-wide receiver on this team. Meyers and Washington are
55:10slot wide receivers. Hunter can technically play all three, but he's probably better as the Z. Like Brian Thomas is the guy that's going to be on
55:18the field every single play that he can handle and he could very easily be a round two pick in fantasy last year or
55:23next year. Um he was a round two pick last year did not produce. Uh but man, you're you're getting upside here in
55:30this spot for Brian Thomas Jr. Jordan Tyson after him. Drafted eighth overall by the Saints. Steps right into that wide receiver two role. Pace up offense.
55:39Ton of dome games. Elite contingent upside if Odell gets a concussion. The blood clots are a problem. We don't want these things happening obviously, but
55:47Odell or um Odell Olive has a higher chance of missing games than other wide receivers because also he's struggled at times to just stay healthy, not even
55:57counting those two things. Um the one thing with Tyson is he's also struggled to stay healthy. So he has a very
56:03concerning injury history from college.
56:06Uh I'm not too worried about that unless we see in camp like if he like suffers a setback from the hammy in camp, we're
56:13done. I'm completely going to be out on him. Uh so watch that news, but I think he's going to go out there and if he
56:18stays healthy, he's going to shred in camp. And he feels like someone whose ADP could swing like two rounds in either direction depending on what
56:26happens there. Uh last in this tier, Parker Washington, easily the best wide receiver on the Jaguars last season.
56:31Underlying metrics were also great. Uh expanded that into the playoffs. So you look at the end of season stat line for
56:36the regular season. He was also amazing in the playoffs. Um less upside in my opinion than Brian Thomas Jr. Uh, but I
56:44mean he could turn into like a weekly must start as a wide receiver too.
56:48Another spot watch in camp. Like really the entire Jaguars offense, watch what happens in training camp. All their ADPs are going to change a lot depending on
56:57that. Uh, but yeah, great. He was amazing last season. I think Brian Thomas, I think Parker Washington are pretty much locked in as their top two
57:06wide receivers and you have Meyers and Travis Hunter behind that. Then tier seven, Quinton Johnson, Courtland Sutton, DK Metaf, Alec Pierce, Jaden
57:14Reed, and Jordan Addison. For Quinton Johnson, he was really improved against Manzone Press last year. Uh the thing was he was improved because he couldn't
57:21really get any worse than he was uh the year before. Um still pretty mediocre against those. The thing is he'll be
57:28deployed differently. So Greg Roman had him running a bunch of deep routes as an ex receiver. Um and he wasn't successful
57:35in that. great in the red zone, uh, great at scoring touchdowns, but in terms of like that efficiency, he wasn't great in that area. It's likely that
57:44Mike McDaniel gives him more intermediate routes. Um, McDaniels just likes getting guys running across the field. Are you fast? And can you run
57:51away from people, right? He doesn't necessarily want to push the ball down the sideline. He knows that's a pretty inefficient route to hit. It's tough for
57:57a quarterback to hit that wire if you get open there. But across the field, those are like the most efficient routes
58:02in fantasy. And Mike McDaniel knows that. And so, um, Quinton Johnson's gonna get a lot more of those this season. Uh, if that's going to go way
58:10up, I don't know. I just think again, if this offense is set up for so much success, I think Lad is probably the
58:15more likely player to really go off. Um, but man, if Quinton Johnson's going to be moving across the field more, uh, it
58:22should make him a lot more efficient at a mid round ADP, there is a lot of upside for Quinton this season. Really
58:28like him in this spot. Uh, love if you can pair him with Herbert on Underdog, although their ADPs are close enough
58:33right now. difficult at times. Uh Corland Sutton again, uh my same take as as I kind of talked about before. Um I
58:40will take him on a best ball team that really just needs that stable production at that point in the draft because he
58:44does go relatively late in baseball. But I'm unlikely to play him or draft him in a reddraft league, my main reddraft
58:50league because I know that while Wadd is healthy, it's very unlikely you rely on Courtland Sutton that you really want to
58:56be starting him. And there are other wide receivers in this range who you can reliably start. Uh, I just don't see a
59:02target ceiling for Sutton while Wadd is healthy. Dicky Medaf up next. Um, honestly a similar take as with Courtland Sutton with an 40 I was almost
59:10said 82y old Aaron Rogers there with a 42year-old Aaron Rogers last season set career lows in uh targets in yards was
59:19really just a flex playing fantasy at times and now you replace Calvin Austin with Michael Bitman Jr. and Rowan Wilson who they did not want to play last year
59:28and benched for much of the season with Jeremy Bernard. I just don't see how you're going to trust DK Metaf in a
59:34reddraft league. If you feel like taking him on underdog as part of an easy Pittsburgh stack, go for it. Um, and
59:40this isn't even counting the risk like now it's a 43year-old Aaron Rogers. Um, I just don't get him much in reddraft.
59:46Uh, Alec Pierce after him. 22 and 21 yards perception the last two seasons 11.9 yards per target the last two years
59:55each of the last two years. That is wild. Not an average up exactly 11.9 yards per target uh each of the last two
60:00seasons. Gets a 4-year 114 million contract. A lot more than a lot of people were expecting from him.
60:07Obviously that efficiency is going to drop. The unknown here is how much and what are the targets? Because they just paid him like he's our clear number one
60:14alpha wide receiver that we're going to give 120 targets to. And if that happens and he's getting these downfield looks, my goodness, the upside is crazy. But
60:22the flip side is, well, we he's maxed out at 47 receptions in his career. He is more of a downfield threat. Can he
60:28win in the short and intermediate area of the field? We just don't know. He's coming off foot surgery. Daniel Jones, will he be 100% coming off a torn
60:36Achilles? Like, there's a lot of unknowns here. But the reason he goes this early is because like it seems like when you pay someone four years, $114
60:46million, I think what 80 million guaranteed, you think they're going to force feed you a lot of targets. And then when you look at the other wide
60:52receivers, I like Josh Towns, but there's nothing behind him. I mean, Pierce is set up for a large workload this season. If he remains really
60:59efficient, again, won't remain 11.9 yards per target, but if he remains efficient at all, the upside's crazy, but there's also downside risk
61:06obviously. uh Jaden Reed after him. Uh feel like he benefits the most from them not replacing Dobs or Wixs. Uh he goes
61:14from a slot only wide receiver in a five wide receiver rotation to slot only in three, which helps a lot more,
61:19especially if they're going to run more 11 personnel. The question is, are they actually going to do that? There's talk that they're going to run a lot more 11,
61:26but the fact of the matter is he's a slot only wide receiver. And when you're slot only and your team is not
61:32guaranteed to run three wide receiver sets as often, he might just be exactly as productive as he has been throughout his career. Uh which is someone that's
61:40very difficult to trust in season long.
61:43And then finally, Jordan Addison. Uh feels like the forgotten man after McCarthy burned down Minnesota. Uh he is an exceptional wide receiver too behind
61:50Justin Jefferson. Gets a ton of one-on-one coverage which gives him a very high weekly ceiling. Does not have an elite ceiling unless Justin Jefferson
61:58gets injured. uh but has a really solid floor. Very unlikely to fail at his ADP.
62:03In the two years going into last year, he was 27th and 24th in points per game before the offense fell apart and he was
62:0948th. Now he goes off the board typically like the mid4s. Feels pretty close to his floor. Love him an underdog. Think he's still good in a
62:17reddraft league because if he, you know, goes back to being like the 27th, 24th wide receiver in points per game and
62:22this offense can really take a step forward, well that's someone you could easily throw into the flex spot into wide receiver three if you have that. uh
62:28and occasionally rotate into wide receiver 2. Uh and if you got that in the mid-40s, you're gonna be pretty happy with that production. All right.
62:35Uh leave a like if you are still here because that was a very very long video.
62:39Also remember that the rankings for this video are static. They will not change.
62:43I can't change the video. Um but the website is not. And so if you want to see my updated take that's on the
62:48website, the fennisfootadvice.com, uh you can see it for custom rankings as well. So if your league has different scoring settings, put that into the
62:56website. It'll adjust the rankings. You can print off the tiers. You can draft with dynamic rankings that have data from millions of drafts over the last
63:03decade. Uh very, very, very strong rankings on the website at this point.
63:07Again, you're going to love them. The fantasy footballadvice.com.
63:11But that, my friends, is the end of this one. I'll see you all tomorrow to go over some early training camp news.
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