0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here back in the video. It's Wednesday, so we're going to go over some murky situations, talk about whether I'd
0:06rather be buying or selling those players at their current market value.
0:10First up, I just want to mention the Broncos running backs. I don't actually think you're going to get a ton for R.J.
0:16Harvey, JK Dobbins, but I'd be more trying to buy Jonah Coleman. Of course, this was a great week to get him off
0:22agency, but I'd be more buying him, selling Harvey and Dobbins. I think maybe it's possible. Um, there's some teams in your league obviously that are
0:30not going to be doing very well at the running back position. Uh, Dobbins has three consecutive weeks of a touchdown.
0:37Harvey h Harvey has two consecutive weeks of a touchdown. So, you know, it's possible. People look at the box scores, they see a couple good games in a row,
0:46they see the touchdowns, they're like, "Okay, maybe this is fine for me as a running back, too." So, maybe some sort
0:51of swap for like flex value, lower end flex value for Harvey. I will say Harvey's value is impacted less than Dobbins. And so if Jonah Coleman comes
1:02in, he takes some goal line touches, he takes a lot of early down work. Well, that doesn't hurt Harvey as much, who
1:08goes out there and has two or three rush attempts every week. It hurts Dobbins, who's basically only getting work on the
1:14ground. And I really just think the the writing's on the wall. I mean, 3.4 yards per carrying the season for JK Dobbins
1:21has not looked good. Not creating like explosive plays. It's not like Coleman's gone out there and ripped off a million 20 yard runs. He hasn't had very many
1:29opportunities to do that, but it's pretty clear that he does look better.
1:33The coaching staff's really talking him up. They want to get him the football.
1:36And that's going to come at the expense of Dobbins. Harvey as well. But again, Harvey's value goes down like a little
1:42bit. Dobbins goes down a lot. But both of them would still be sells because I mean Harvey's really only hitting because of the long touchdown. He's only
1:49getting a couple touches every week. Uh you're not going to be able to trust Harvey or Dobbins long term. Uh, so I'd
1:54sell them if possible. Uh, Lad up next.
1:57I feel like Lad's the number one buy of the week, especially if you're struggling at wide receiver. The market right now has him as a wide receiver.
2:0433. I was just ultra conservative in this week's rest of season rankings update. I wanted to be as conservative as possible and I put him at 27. I feel
2:15like that's really as low as I could possibly get him. Um, very clearly the top wide receiver in their team. very
2:21clearly the focal point of the offense.
2:23Honestly, not even just like the passing attack, the focal point of the offense, the most important player in the offense. Everything offensively is built
2:31around Lad Mani. Uh and he's been great when healthy this season. Just barely been healthy at all. Um finally healthy now coming off of buy. To me, it's like
2:41you look at the players around him. So he's ranked behind Stefan Diggs rest of the season, DK Metaf, Roma Dun again by
2:48the market, not by me. Um I don't know.
2:50It's just like he's ranked amongst players who are fine, who are going to provide you some value, but like Diggs, Metaf, Dunay, are those players who we
3:00anticipate putting together like, you know, high-end wide receiver two seasons for the rest of the year. No, they're guys that we anticipate being like,
3:09okay, they're maybe fine at wide receiver 2, ideally wide receiver three, ideally flex spot, second flex spot.
3:16They're not guys that we see any sort of consistent ceiling for. uh not guys that were like, you know, pumped every week
3:22to be playing. And I don't really think that's also in their range of outcomes.
3:25I think there's going to be fine rest of the season. That's the range that he's in. It's the fine range where you're not
3:30that excited, not too much upside long term. But Lad actually has it. Like there is a reason that he was, you know,
3:37ranked as like a third or fourth round pick by everyone this season. There was a reason people were very excited to get
3:42him as their wide receiver, too, cuz he's objectively a great talent. Again, focal part of the offense. Whenever you can like a blanket statement, if you
3:51know that someone is the focal point of the offense and you have an opportunity to buy low on them, you do it. Like I
3:56don't even care who the player is. If they're actually that involved, you do it. He literally had three catches for 60 yards on the first drive of the
4:03season. And then on the second drive, uh Herbert throws that hospital ball, gets lad's ribs cracked, and then rest of the
4:09season he's been playing through that injury, foot injury, concussion. It's just like he's never been healthy. Uh he has one game over a 50% snap share so
4:19far. Again, playing hurt, playing through injury. Been tough season, a really tough season for Lad thus far.
4:26But if he's finally healthy now, can finally go out there and just run a complete route share. Uh he's going to
4:33be really good in fantasy and he's certainly going to be better than the wide receiver 33. So I would definitely be targeting him. I really think he's
4:39probably like the number one trade target this week. Uh Jeremiah Love, I'd still be buying him. Um theoretically, like there's risk here. We'll go over
4:48another player in a second who thinks a sell because of risk. I don't think Lo's a sell with the risk just because like
4:53number one, you're not selling him that much. So the market right now has him as a running back 23. I mean, there's
4:58really only like 20 running backs you feel good about. So he's already like outside the range that we feel good about. um selling him as like a a
5:05low-end two to kind of flex viable player. What are you really getting in return that has the ceiling of Jeremiah Love? You're you're probably not getting
5:14enough. When players are completely missing time, they're out with injury.
5:19You don't know when they're coming back.
5:21Typically, no one is buying high on those players. So, if the market has him running back 23, um it just feels very
5:29fair. Like, he's going to come back.
5:30Obviously, at some point, he's going to come back this season. They're not going to completely shut him down. Even if they uh transition quarterback from
5:37Brassette to Beck, which they've said they're not doing right now. Um but even if they do that long term, that doesn't
5:43mean they're going to be like, "Oh, bench love Bench McBride." It's like, well, no, those guys should be out there playing with Beck because they got to
5:49figure out can Beck perform in this offense. But I kind of want to ease some concerns of that happening in the short
5:55term cuz they were asked about that. And the coach was like, "Listen, like we're we're not performing how we want on
6:02offense, but I think they said they got inside the 10 yard line like 10 times the last couple of weeks." They're like,
6:07"We're getting there. We're just not converting at the end." And he's like, "That's kind of like a team thing, but like the offense itself is moving up and
6:14down the field pretty nicely. They're they're not playing that bad on offense.
6:17It just beat the Rams like two weeks ago. So, I don't think that we're that close to getting Carson Beck. I don't
6:24think we're in tank territory at all right now. and they're doing what we want. I mean, I talked about a few weeks
6:30ago how it's like I want coaching staffs to actually care about their players long-term health and not throw them out there like they did with Devontto Smith
6:38before he was healthy and suffer a setback and now we're going to talk about in a second. He might be shut down
6:43for the season. He might go on IR again.
6:44It's like it's or not IR again, but like he might go on IR and miss again a lot of time. I don't want coaches doing
6:52that. And I want to make sure our guys are 100% that when they go out there, they're good to go and they have a low
6:57risk of a setback. And that's what they're doing with Jeremiah Love. So, if they say this week, he's good to go.
7:02He's practicing in full, he's going to play, I know immediately I can put him into running back two and I'm going to
7:07be happy with the production that he has. You can't say that about a lot of other players. And so, I don't know. I
7:12just feel like sentiment is pretty down on him. I want to be going after him yet. I don't think there's tank risk
7:16here. um even when they transition to quarterback, they're going to have their stars out there with Beck because they have to figure out can Beck actually be
7:24long-term option or uh at minimum the long-term backup. Uh yeah, transitioning to Devont Smith, uh I I'm worried. I'm worried about Dvontto Smith. So, you
7:33have a setback for a hamstring. That's not good. Uh he could go on IR. There's talk of him being shut down for the
7:38season. You know, I don't think they're going to shut him down. Um we're still in week eight. like it's there's still a
7:45long ways to go here. Even if he went on IR, you would imagine he'd still come back after that and at least play. Maybe
7:52not to the the caliber we were expecting, but I don't know. I I don't think they're going to shut him down for
7:56the season. But the fact that that's even a possibility, his value in the market right now is still high enough.
8:02Um I have him as a wide receiver 30. I think the market has him closer to like wide receiver like 24 something in
8:08there. Um if you can just swap him for like general flex value, I'd do it. I just I have no confidence in this
8:15offense rest of season. Um I have no confidence in his ability to play over the next month of the year. Uh and the
8:22concerns about, you know, long-term not playing, shutting down. Um if they were competitive this year, if this was like, you know, the offense was clicking and
8:31he was just going to miss a month, it'd be a different story. But even if he goes out there, things have not been
8:37that great. It's unfortunate because like he was set up so well this season.
8:41I really do think if he were healthy, if Saquon were healthy, and if they just won like one more game recently that
8:48like they would be able to do something even without Jaylen Herz. But the injuries have really just caught up with them and at this point they've kind of
8:56given up. Uh they're kind of moving on to next season and so unfortunate. Uh but I think you got to just sell
9:01Devontto Smith. I don't know um everyone else in the offense if I'd really be a seller. I don't think the values there
9:07enough. Um, I think it just be kind of holding the rest of their players, but Smith in particular, when you have a
9:11setback from a Hammy, and they're talking about potential shutdown, I think you got to just get rid of him if he can. Uh, AJ Brown up next. Uh, I'm
9:18buying if you can get him at his cost of like a general low-end wide receiver, too. Market has him as wide receiver 19.
9:24I have him 17th. So, you know, I'm coming in a little bit higher, but nothing crazy here. Uh, I'm not going
9:30to, you know, rank him as like a low-end wide receiver one right now. I think he can get there. And I think the positive
9:37here is like Drake May's balling. Like Drake May looked terrible over the first couple weeks of the season. Like one of
9:42the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. He's looked great over the last month. 14 touchdowns to two interceptions, a 67% completion rate, 300 passing yards per
9:53game, nearly nine yards per attempt.
9:56He's balling right now. You've got Romeo Dobs on IR. I don't know. I just feel like better days have to be ahead for AJ
10:03Brown. like he was phenomenal in camp. I mean truly like beat reporters were just glowing. They were like he looks fantastic. The connection looks great.
10:13He's going to be a huge red zone weapon.
10:14He's going to be featured. Like every like it just from everyone on the team, the coaching staff, beat reporters, everyone was indicating this was going
10:24to be a great season for AJ Brown. I just don't see how it's going to be this bad rest of season. probably Rusty
10:34coming off of the major ankle injury.
10:36Remember that like, you know, we thought that he could be returning around now, maybe in another week initially from the injury. So, he returned much quicker
10:43than normal. Uh maybe he was still a little bit injured. Maybe not fully 100%. Maybe that time off, cuz obviously you're resting when you have a high
10:51ankle sprain. Uh maybe that time off kind of hurt him as well. He's got to get back into things. I don't know.
10:55Maybe we're just making too many excuses. Uh but I just feel like better days have to be ahead for AJ Brown. They
11:01also ran a league low 50 plays last week. Obviously, when we have these games where teams run 4550 plays and we're comparing them to teams that run
11:1175 or 80 plays in a week, it's like, well, yeah, things are going to look a lot differently when you're just not
11:16running that many plays. Upcoming schedule, pretty solid. Dolphins, Packers, Lions. So, you've got a bad defense and you've got two teams that
11:24have a mediocre defense mixed with a very good offense that can push New England. Um, one note I want to make
11:30with New England players in general, uh, is a little bit difficult. So, weeks 14 plus, of course, 14's the last week of
11:38the fantasy regular season. 15 through 17 is the championships. Starting or like playoffs and championship. Starting week 14, you've got Vikings, Chiefs,
11:48Jets, Broncos. I highly doubt that anyone in this team plays good against the Vikings. Maybe someone happens to score a touchdown, but like no one's
11:56going to play well against the Vikings.
11:57And I don't think AJ Brown's gonna play well against the Vikings or the Chiefs.
12:00So that's weeks 14 and 15. I mean, for some of you, that's going to be a must-win situation in the first week of
12:06the fantasy playoffs. And so that's really tough. Uh but if you're like, you know, doing really well right now, you're in first place, you're trending
12:14towards having a buy, well, maybe the last week doesn't matter and you have a buy in that week and then you don't care
12:20at all, then it's Jets and Broncos. Uh and that's like not great. like you don't you don't love the Broncos matchup, but Jets would be totally fine.
12:27Uh I just want to point it out because, you know, we're going to start probably in a couple weeks, you know, really
12:32talking probably in like next week or the week after really talking about playoff schedules and thinking about players that have really good matchups
12:40there. And that is not going to be the Patriots. It's not going to be especially the Patriots wide receivers.
12:44So, if that's something that concerns you, um you know, maybe just don't buy AJ Brown. But again, if you're a top
12:50team, especially, I would look at Brown because you could get the buy and then also you can kind of afford to wait a
12:58little bit in the short term. See if it takes him another couple weeks to really get going cuz I do feel like when he's
13:03healthy, he's going to be much better than he has been. A really good asset.
13:07Someone that you're just every week saying definitely be playing him. Uh it's the short term right now. We just kind of don't know when that's going to
13:14happen. So, more of a buyer if you're a higherend team, less of a buyer if you are, you know, struggling right now
13:20outside looking in on playoffs. Garrett Wilson after him. Um, I would continue selling Garrett Wilson. I'm pretty worried about Omar Cooper. I just think
13:28Omar Cooper looks very, very good.
13:31Clearly commanding a consistent target share, commanding downfield looks. Um, that's just going to limit things, right? I mean, he's got 103 or more
13:39yards and a touchdown in his only two full games played. Garrett Wilson's done that in three of 65 career games. Like
13:46that's that's crazy to think about. Like Garrett Wilson is a target hog. He gets a million targets, but he has 103 and a
13:54touchdown or more in three of 65 career games. And Omar Cooper has done that in both of his two full games this season.
14:02I'm not saying Gary Wilson is bad. He's absolutely a great wide receiver. But I'm just even more worried than I was
14:09last week that the target share is just not going to be what we're used to. And when you pull back his target share,
14:15he's never been an efficient wide receiver. And so there's going to be a lot more mediocre games. It's going to be a lot more touchdown dependent. And
14:23you don't want that. Um, you know, it's just it's just a lot of quality players with Gino Smith surrounding them. And
14:28obviously Gino Smith is fine, but he's not like a talent elevator. He's not someone that's going to consistently have, you know, 300 plus passing yards.
14:35So, um I don't know. I think Omar's kind of breaking out and Wilson is more honestly more of a flex player than we
14:41anticipate him being this season.
14:44Stevenson, um I'd also be looking to sell Stevenson if possible. He's coming off the running back four overall performance, but pretty much all that
14:52came on a fake Hail Mary screen pass to end halftime. Aside from that one play, he had 8.7 half PPR points. That puts
14:59him outside the top 24 on the week. I know people hate when you're like, "Oh, yeah, of course. Remove their best play
15:05and yeah, they're not going to look as good." I think in this instance, it's fair this wasn't like a random play
15:10where he ripped off a 60-yard touchdown.
15:13This was a literal fake Hail Mary screen pass. That is not a scenario that's going to repeat very many times. And you
15:19better believe the next time the Patriots are in that scenario, the defense is going to be looking for that play and they're not going to play as
15:26badly as it did last time. So, it's like a fair play to remove. You know, if someone had randomly caught a Hail Mary
15:33at the end of the game, it would be fair to be like, "Okay, but other than the Hail Mary, they didn't perform that
15:40well. You know, it's it's just different than saying, "Oh, well, of course you take away his best carry." No, that happened in a normal game situation, not
15:46a fake Hail Mary. So, I think it's fair to say overperforming a little bit right now. Also, Trayvon, Trayvon's not going
15:53to be the one. I mean, we talked about this all off seasonason. Like, Trayvon is just viewed worse than Stevenson. And
15:58I know our community likes Tayvon and wants him to be used more because he's so explosive. At the end of the day, he
16:05cannot pass block and that's just very important for the Patriots offense. So, Trayvon is not going to overtake Arandre Stevenson this season, but he is going
16:13to be used more than he has been recently. Um, remember he suffered a high ankle sprain and then he missed zero games. Usually, you're missing at
16:20least four weeks. He suffers a high ankle sprain and he's out there the following week. So, he hasn't been playing that much. It's been like uh
16:27Cory Ker um being used over him. To be to be fair, honestly, I think when um you know, Trayvon is healthy, he really
16:35just overtakes the Cory Ker touches. So, I don't think the the touches change that much for uh Stevenson. The thing would be Trayvon is still that explosive
16:45player that they want to get the football to. And so when he finally is recovered from this ankle injury over the next couple weeks or so, um he will
16:54still be someone that could, you know, get going in a game, could rip rip off some long plays and kind of just like
17:01take drives away from Stevenson a little bit more. And if Stephvenson is also uh overperforming right now, you know, for touchdowns and receptions, things like
17:09that, the long play last week, uh it's just a good time to sell. And then you mix in again the playoff schedule when
17:16they've got weeks 14 through 17, three really difficult matchups for the offense, only two difficult matchups for running backs. It's it's not as good.
17:23Again, it's going to be very important weeks 14 and 15. And when you play the Vikings and the Chiefs, it's just no
17:28one's going to have that good of a day.
17:30Um he's my running back 23 rest of the season. If you can generally flip him for like different, you know, kind of
17:36low-end uh low-end running back two value, I think that's totally fine. Um, I don't think you're going out and like needing to sell Stephvenson, but I think
17:44he's a great player that like if there's someone in your league that is struggling at running back, he is a guy
17:48that's getting consistent touches, receptions, some touchdowns that someone will actually look at and say, you know what, I'm totally fine with that at
17:56running back, too. And maybe they're strong at receiver, tight end, or quarterback or something, and you're weak there. And you can do some sort of
18:01flip as far as that's concerned. Uh, on to the Bears players, uh, Burden, Loveland. Um I I don't I I think it's just like hold
18:12kind of situation for them. Uh I'm definitely not selling. I mean they started off the season really slow, right? But since Caleb's return,
18:21Burden's the wide receiver five overall and Lovelin is a tight end one overall.
18:26Yes, that's only two weeks ago, but remember two weeks ago when we talked in this video, we said the Bears are the
18:32team that we know the least about in the NFL. Despite the public wanting to write all these guys off, we knew almost
18:39nothing about the Bears as soon as two weeks, as early as two weeks ago, as recently as two weeks ago. Now, that
18:46doesn't mean that rest of season Burn's going to be a top five wide receiver and Leland as a tight end one. Of course
18:51not. But I do think like we still need a little bit more time to fully know what to do with this Bears offense. And at a
18:59very minimum, I just don't see why you'd need to be selling these guys when things are finally clicking for them.
19:05Again, we knew nothing to start the season. You had 59 points in week one, but the running backs ran for 300 yards,
19:13six touchdowns, and like we just didn't know anything for the passing attack.
19:17Then we have the rightoff game against the Vikings in a monsoon. And then we've got injuries, right? Caleb is done. He
19:23comes back 31 points against the Falcons, 30 points against the Patriots.
19:27Uh Caleb's averaging nine yards per attempt, 75% completion rate in the three games we care about. Like this offense is clearly very good, but it's
19:37not really week eight for them. It's like week four and so we don't know a lot, but I wouldn't be selling them
19:43because I just don't see why you'd be cutting loose on these guys when they have this high-end season um or ceiling.
19:50Especially Burden. Like if you watch them play, it is so obvious that Luther Burton is the best wide receiver on this
19:57team. like he's easily the most dynamic, electric player on the field at times.
20:01Like every time he catches the ball, he is just so much more athletic, so much more explosive than all of the players
20:09around him. I really do think a big thing with Burden was the coinciding of like the Caleb injury, the run game in
20:17week one, and the groin injury. It's like all of this stuff happens, right?
20:20Late camp, he has the groin injury. Um he misses some time. and we're like, great, he's going to start the season
20:27missing like the first couple of weeks.
20:28He's going to ramp up from there. But then he played in week one. We were like, nice, he's going out there and
20:33he's playing. But again, in week one, they ran the ball every single play. Um, they didn't need him at all. He doesn't
20:38perform all that well. Week two, we get the monsoon. Week three, uh, you don't have or week three, four, five, you
20:46don't have, um, Caleb Williams. And so it's like he was starting off slower, ramping up from the injury. Then Caleb misses and we finally get in weeks six,
20:56week seven, a healthy Caleb and a healthy Burden. And now Burden's the top five wide receiver in those weeks.
21:02Again, I don't know if he's going to finish that high rest of the season.
21:05Probably not. But there's a chance he finishes wide receiver one. And I can certainly tell you, you're not going to get wide receiver one value if you're
21:11trying to trade away Luther Bird. And so I would sit on these guys if they have another very good week. Their value is
21:17going to skyrocket. The market is still spooked from the early season. So there's no point in trying to sell right now. Go out there. They have a tough
21:25match up this week, but go out there, hope that they have a really good week.
21:28If you really, really want to be selling these guys because you're spooked, see if they have another good week. If that
21:33happens, the market's going to be much, much, much more willing to buy. But personally, um, I would just be looking to hold these guys. Right now, if you
21:40want to know season value, I have Luther Burden as my wide receiver 20, Coulson Lovelin as a tight end seven. But one
21:47more good week and we could be talking about Luther as like a high-end two to a low-end wide receiver one. We could be
21:53talking about Lovelin as a clear top five, top four tight end rest this season. Again, tough matchup this week, but if they do in a tough matchup, we're
22:01going to have a lot of confidence in them long term. All right. Uh I have a few more trade targets list on the
22:05website the fantasy footballadvice.com.
22:08I'm also working on, it's not ready yet, but I'm working on a league sync feature, uh, where it's going to tell
22:14you what the, so if you look at all the trade targets, what the best trade is for your team for each of the trade
22:21targets that week. So, if I have like 10 trade targets listed on the website, it's going to say, okay, for this
22:27particular player, what is the best trade for your team that's possible?
22:31It's not ready yet, but at some point this season, it will be ready. So, please leave a like if you're still
22:37here. Tomorrow is the big rankings video. Friday is the underdog picks video. So, make sure you're subscribed so you don't miss either of those. But
22:45that'll do it for this one. And thank you all for watching.
