0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here
0:01back with another video. Nine and six
0:03last week, but the Bears sold us. Uh,
0:05could have been fireworks on both sides.
0:07There was fireworks on the Packers side
0:08of that game. Uh, could have been
0:10fireworks on both sides, but maybe Bean
0:12is a little bit worse than I thought he
0:13was. Feeling pretty good about the
0:15projection so far this week. So, we'll
0:17hop right into things with the London
0:19game. You know, we need a pick from the
0:21London game. Uh, and one of our two
0:23ladders of the week is going to be Nico
0:26Collins. Uh the regular projections that
0:28we're looking at here are Nico Collins
0:30higher than 69 and a half receiving
0:32yards and Parker Washington on the other
0:34side higher than 59 and a half receiving
0:37yards. Um these two are actually like
0:40similar on both sides for like the
0:41matchup. Uh both matchups are bottom
0:44seven for running backs but top eight
0:47matchups for wide receivers. both sides
0:50also um they boost passing volume to the
0:54wide receiver position while limiting
0:56passing volume to running backs and
0:58tight ends. And so we've basically got
1:00two star wide receivers facing off
1:02against each other. Both of them are
1:05facing wide receiver funnel defenses. Uh
1:08both defenses do definitely have good
1:10corners that can slow wide receivers,
1:12but both offenses also do a very good
1:16job of just moving around these star
1:18wide receivers and getting them into
1:20advantageous positions. Like there are
1:23just some teams that have superstar wide
1:25receivers uh where there's a shutdown
1:27corner on the other side and they don't
1:29really do anything to move the wide
1:31receiver off of that spot and so the
1:34star goes up against the top corners
1:36more often than not. Um Texans do a
1:39great job moving Nico around. That'll be
1:40even uh more viable. I don't know if
1:42Marv's going to play this week but when
1:44they have Marv out there they're going
1:45to be able to move Nico around even more
1:48and get him away from top corners even
1:49more. And then Parker Washington can
1:51play both inside and outside. So he
1:53definitely can move around the formation
1:55and kind of avoid avoid um top corners
1:57on the Texan side. And so um I like
2:00taking this combo straight up. Um I've
2:02actually also moved it up to 100 for
2:05both of them. That comes out to 12.3x
2:08without applying any sort of boost. So
2:10if you look at you know higher than 99
2:13and a half receiving yards for both of
2:15them 12.3x no boost. All of you should
2:18have at least a 30% boost in your lobby
2:20for the chain mover. Um I did that. It
2:23came out to like 15 and a halfx
2:25something like that. So um should go
2:27without saying obviously that 15x uh
2:29isn't going to hit super often, but
2:32again this is like you know two pretty
2:34good teams, right? I wouldn't expect
2:36either side like I wouldn't expect, you
2:38know, Jacksonville or the Texans to win
2:40by multiple touchdowns here. So I think
2:43it's going to play out relatively close.
2:45I don't think either side is going to
2:47find a ton of success on the ground and
2:50both these matchups limit targets to
2:52tight ends. And so it's like if you've
2:53got two very good teams um what should
2:56be a relatively decently scoring game
2:59that plays out close and both are going
3:01up against pass funnels and both are,
3:03you know, pretty clearly the top wide
3:04receivers and top pass catchers on the
3:07team. It just makes a lot of sense that
3:09both these two are going to see a ton of
3:10targets. Doesn't mean they're both
3:11necessarily going to hit for 100 yards,
3:13but I think the projections there again
3:1569 and a half for Nico Collins, 59 1/2
3:17for Parker Washington, more than fair
3:19and I think they correlate together
3:21pretty nicely. If especially Nico, if he
3:23gets going deep downfield, create some
3:25chunk plays, then we're looking really
3:27good in this one. Next up, we've got uh
3:30Titans at Colts might not seem like a
3:33super appealing game in fantasy. And for
3:36the most part, it's not. We're not
3:37expecting, you know, this game to be 30
3:40to 33 where we've got a ton of players
3:42going off. But I do like Carnell Tate
3:44higher than 49 and a half receiving
3:46yards. And then Josh DS higher than 49
3:48and a half receiving yards as well.
3:50Colts are the ninth best matchup for
3:52wide receivers. Titans are the fourth
3:54best matchup or third best matchup for
3:56wide receivers. Um, Carninal Tate did
3:58bust last week. It was something we
4:00talked about uh in the rankings video
4:02earlier in the week as well that he did
4:04leave practice late last week with back
4:06tightness. Um something you can't
4:08necessarily predict, but maybe we should
4:10have accounted that a little bit more in
4:11the projections. But I think a lot of
4:13that was like, you know, things were
4:15trending up, right? He has backto-back
4:17really strong weeks. He has a huge
4:19target share, but then he goes up
4:20against the Texans. Not that the Texans,
4:23you know, um limit wide receion law. We
4:25just talked about that. But the Texans
4:27line just like overwhelmed the Titans.
4:29The Titans have like, you know, a bottom
4:30three offensive line. They couldn't do
4:32anything. Obviously, um, you know, Cam
4:35Ward isn't like the greatest quarterback
4:36or anything. So, when he's facing a lot
4:38of pressure, nothing could really get
4:40going in that game at all. And when you
4:43mix in, you know, a late week downgrade
4:45with a back injury, that's not great.
4:47But so far, there's been, you know, he's
4:49not even on the injury report, so
4:50they're not worried at all about the
4:52back. It's not really an injury. It was
4:53really just like tightness that kind of
4:54appeared late last week and I do think
4:56it impacted him a little bit in game.
4:58So, um, again,
5:02great player in a great spot, not
5:04worried about the back and like
5:06shouldn't have the same issue against
5:07the Colts. Again, the Texans we just
5:10talked about, they're a good matchup for
5:12wide receivers, but only if you can
5:14actually take advantage of it, right?
5:16Colonel Tate can get open, but if Cam
5:19Ward is being sacked or being flushed
5:21out of the pocket before Tate even runs
5:23his route, then there's nothing you can
5:24really do in that spot. I don't think
5:26they're going to have that same issue
5:28against the Colts. Um, for downs on the
5:30Colts side, it has been a relatively
5:32disappointing season for him, but he is
5:34running by far the most routes on the
5:36team. Specifically, he's running 72% of
5:39his routes from the slot. Uh, the Titans
5:42are weakest against slot wide receivers.
5:44And so the matchup also tilts in his
5:46direction along with him just being the
5:48best wide receiver on the Colts. So you
5:50are just getting two pretty decent wide
5:52receivers. I don't think either one of
5:54them is like a star just yet, but two
5:56very good wide receivers. Uh the top
5:58pass catchers on each respective team.
6:01Good matchups for both. Very reasonable
6:03projections here. A dome game. And I'll
6:05note a 44 and a half point total. I said
6:07I'm not expecting fireworks, right? I
6:09don't expect each team to push into like
6:10the upper 20s to 30s, but 44 and a2 for
6:14a game that, you know, is like Colts are
6:16touchdown favorites, but there is
6:18absolutely a chance here that this game
6:20goes a little bit over and it's it's
6:22over under there. um that we see, you
6:24know, the Colts win like a 27 to 24 game
6:28or 2721 something like that where you're
6:31looking at the Titans side being like,
6:32"Hey, they had a lot more production
6:34than we were expecting cuz 44 and a half
6:36for a Titans game this season is
6:38actually pretty decent." Sometimes that
6:40can hit if it's like the Titans are
6:41getting absolutely annihilated, but I
6:43don't expect that to happen really. Like
6:45these are two pretty mediocre defenses.
6:49I don't expect either defense to like
6:51put up a lot of resistance in this one.
6:53And so I definitely like both of these
6:54players. Again, uh both 49 and a half
6:57receiving yards higher on that. Uh
6:59another game, one that really stands out
7:01this week is Cowboys at Packers. Hoping
7:04the Cowboys don't sell us like the uh
7:07Bears did last week. Uh but this game
7:10has a 53 and a half point total. And
7:12it's because we've got two very high-end
7:15offenses and offenses that are honestly
7:18capable of scoring 40 real life points
7:20in a week going up against two very poor
7:23defenses. So, uh, Dallas is the number
7:26two matchup for both running backs and
7:28wide receivers. Green Bay number three
7:31matchup for running backs, number one
7:33matchup for wide receivers. Um,
7:36unfortunately, that also means we don't
7:38necessarily know how each side is going
7:40to find success. The odds are they'll
7:42find success doing everything, but we
7:44don't know exactly what each team is
7:45going to pinpoint and say this is the
7:47area we want to attack and they'll find
7:48like the most success doing that and
7:50keep going back to that over and over.
7:52Like we don't necessarily know. It's
7:54easier in spots where it's like, oh,
7:56this is a tight end or wide receiver or
7:57a running back funnel. Like that's just
7:59where the volume goes. That's not
8:00necessarily the case against these
8:01teams. It's just like you can attack
8:03pretty much however you want. And so
8:05teams do whatever they want and they do
8:06what finds the most success in that
8:08week. But uh for both sides, I do prefer
8:12the running backs. Javvante Williams
8:14higher than 69 1/2. Rushing yards,
8:16Marshon Lloyd also higher than 39 12.
8:19Rushing yards um both teams are again
8:22going to find success everywhere. But um
8:25if we want to attack this passing
8:27attack, like there are great playmakers
8:29all around, right? You've got Lamb,
8:31Pickkins, uh you've got um Golden
8:34Watson, Craft. Like even if you
8:37pinpointed, oh, it's wide receiver or
8:39oh, it's passing, even within that,
8:41you've kind of kind of make a decision
8:43and there's nothing really that
8:44indicates which one it's going to be,
8:46but the matchup is also good on the
8:48ground and the game does have a pretty
8:50close one and a half point spread. And
8:52so the expectation is it's going to
8:54remain somewhat close. So both sides
8:56should see the running back still
8:57involved late in the game. Um, you know,
9:00and given that they're both a bottom
9:01three matchup to run running defenses,
9:03like bottom three run defenses, top
9:05three matchups to running backs, um, we
9:08should see pretty decent efficiency in
9:10this one. Um, I would say Lloyd is
9:12probably the scarier of the two picks,
9:14but um, they seem pleased still with how
9:17he's running. Um, I do think he's
9:19playing better than the yards per carry
9:21going to show. Yards per carry is really
9:22bad this season for him. This offensive
9:24line in Green Bay is horrible, but no
9:27team is allowing more rushing yards per
9:29game than the Dallas Cowboys. Uh, and
9:32it's really not even that close. I mean,
9:33they're at 168 rushing yards per game
9:35allowed. That is 12 more than the second
9:38most. That is 20 more per game than the
9:41third worst team in the NFL. Like, I
9:44know Green Bay has struggled, but if
9:46they can't run the ball against Dallas,
9:47then I mean, their ground game is just
9:49cooked this season. So, I like going to
9:52Lloyd. I think he's the lead back. It
9:54wouldn't be shocking if like Caleb or
9:57Pierre Strong just like ripped off a
9:59couple big plays and they keep them in.
10:01But 39 a half is not that lofty of a
10:03total. Teams are running for 170 yards
10:06per game against Alice. We're only
10:08looking for 40 from what should be their
10:10lead runner. I mean, what is Caleb
10:12ripping off 100 yards on the ground?
10:14Maybe, but probably not. Also, Lloyd's a
10:18very explosive player. It really only
10:19takes a couple decent chunk games for
10:21him to hit here. And again, I think it's
10:24important though, like if this game does
10:25play out relatively close and we get
10:27normal game scripts here. Both sides
10:30should run the ball a decent amount,
10:31especially if they're finding success
10:33because they both know we're great at
10:34play action, right? Like if both teams
10:36are running the ball decently well and
10:38they go into play action in the second
10:40half, they're going to hit deep
10:42downfield. And that's just how you run
10:44an efficient offense, especially in
10:45today's NFL. So, I think both teams
10:47going to try and run the ball a decent
10:48amount. Uh, we'll see what happens, but
10:50they should find high end efficiency.
10:52Our other ladder of the week is coming
10:54from this Monday night game, Commanders
10:56at 49ers. Uh, 49ers are just yet again
11:00decimated by injuries. Uh, they've got
11:03four wide receivers on IR. Now, Debo is
11:07an IR consideration. He's not going to
11:08play this week. They might get uh Kirk
11:12back. I don't know what's going to
11:13happen yet. So, he gets hurt on the
11:15first day of training camp, suffers
11:16multiple setbacks of this calf injury.
11:19He now practices uh with the team for
11:21the first time uh on Thursday.
11:23Obviously, he's been practicing on his
11:25own, but he joined team practices on
11:27Thursday. I would imagine they don't
11:29rush him back, but they also said he's
11:30good to go, so he might be playing in
11:32this game. Regardless, right, this
11:35team's decimated by injuries. The vast
11:37majority of the target share is going to
11:39be consolidated amongst Christian
11:41McCaffrey, Mike Evans, and KD. Uh, a
11:44little bit to Brandon Cooks, maybe Kurt
11:46gives it a go this week, but for the
11:48most part, we know those three are
11:49getting volume, right? Uh, this week
11:51they take on a commander defense that
11:53ranks 32nd against tight ends. They're
11:55allowing a boost to everything. So, a
11:57lot of teams are bad at like one or two
11:59metrics against tight ends or really any
12:02position, um, but good against another.
12:03So maybe a team allows a really high
12:05catch rate um and a decent amount of
12:08targets, but that's because they allow
12:10everything in the shallow area of the
12:11field. They allow the decent catch rate,
12:13but it's close and so yards perception
12:15is lower because you're just getting
12:17dump box and not doing anything after
12:19catch. Um but that is not the case
12:21against the commanders. They're allowing
12:23the largest yards perception boost. So
12:26each catch is coming highly efficiently
12:28downfield while also allowing the sixth
12:30highest catch rate. So targets are going
12:33down field and also being completed at a
12:35very high rate. And then also the
12:38seventh most targets over expectation.
12:40So there's heavy volume coming downfield
12:42being completed at a very high rate. So
12:45uh just really high-end efficiency to
12:47tight ends again number one matchup. Um
12:51commanders just give it up to the tight
12:52end position. KD has run the most routes
12:55on the team the last three weeks. That
12:56is highly impressive coming off of his
12:58injury. Uh, and he's just in a really
13:00awesome spot on Monday night. So, I like
13:02higher than 59 and a half receiving
13:04yards for George KD. And then the other
13:06side, I like Rashad White higher than 14
13:08and a half receiving yards. Uh,
13:10definitely was not on him this season in
13:13terms of like reddraft leagues, but Sam
13:15Fran is the number one matchup for
13:18running back receptions and running back
13:20receiving yards over expectation. Uh,
13:23when healthy, you know, White has
13:25dominated the backfield routes. It's
13:26just that, you know, he got hurt, kind
13:28of missed the game. And so, if you look
13:29at the total, it's not necessarily
13:31representative, but he's very obviously
13:33their pass catching running back. The
13:35odds are the game script here is going
13:37to be San Fran at some point in the
13:39first half, gets a lead, continues to
13:42grow that lead, and at some point,
13:43Washington's probably going to have to
13:45abandon the run. You're probably going
13:47to see a lot less Jakori Kroski Merritt
13:49and a lot more Rashad White. Also,
13:50Stefan Diggs still hasn't practiced
13:52through Thursday. I don't think he's
13:53going to play. They're going to see if
13:54he can go out there on Friday. I record
13:56this Friday morning. I don't know yet if
13:57he practiced. Um, but odds are Diggs is
14:00either not going to play or be limited
14:02if he does play and so they're also
14:04going to need Rashad White to play a
14:05little bit more in that short area of
14:07the field. And again, if it's a trailing
14:09script, uh, likely the San Fran got
14:11there because of KD. So KD can still hit
14:13in them getting to a blowout. And then
14:15if it's kind of either a blowout or
14:17like, you know, a big trailing script in
14:18the second half, you're going to have a
14:20lot of drop backs and a lot more snaps
14:22for Rashad White. Uh, but yeah, KD is
14:25one of the two ladders of Luke. Again, I
14:26like KD. I like Nico Collins. I could
14:29take them up to 100. Honestly, you could
14:31push to 120 yards on each of them. Um,
14:34if you want to be an absolute savage and
14:36you want to add in uh the Nico and
14:38Parker Washington, uh, at least 100
14:41receiving yards, both of those combined,
14:43the 12.3x. If you want to add on George
14:46KD also getting to 100 receiving yards,
14:50I think the um outcome is like a little
14:52over 30x with no boost. Again, you
14:55should pretty easily be able to apply a
14:56boost this weekend. Obviously, um very
15:00very unlikely that all three hit 100
15:02receiving yards. I'm only going to put
15:04like 1 fifth of a unit on that. Uh but I
15:08think all three are in great spots. But
15:10again, Nico and KD are the two I'm
15:12considering the latter of the week and
15:13I'm willing to take them both like solo
15:15up to 120 receiving yards. So, those are
15:18my favorite picks this week. If I come
15:20across any more, I will tweet them out.
15:22So, uh make sure you're following me on
15:24X. Uh but I feel pretty good about
15:26these. I think the odds are I just stick
15:28with these and don't have any more this
15:30week. So, that'll do it for this one.
15:31Thank you all for watching. Please leave
15:33a like if you are still here and I'll
15:34catch you all on the Tuesday video. Week
15:37seven, waiverwire.