From the episode
When Herbert threw the ball in under two and a half seconds, he was top 10 quarterback...When it was over two and a half seconds, everything plummeted to bottom 10. That's not a Justin Herbert stack...indicative of the fact that the charges offensive line at times felt like a jailbreak on every other play.
STACKED’s take
Positive signalProjection
Herbert's sub-2.5-second performance was top-10; line fixes and scheme tweaks unlock upside.
Herbert showed top-10 quarterback performance when throwing under 2.5 seconds (7th in success rate, 10th in EPA), indicating the Chargers' offensive line issues—not Herbert's ability—were the primary problem last year. With new offensive line help and scheme adjustments including changed footwork in OTAs/mini camp, Herbert has significant upside in the Shanahan system, especially given the historical trend that Shanahan-tree play callers with legit quarterbacks throw for ~45 touchdowns per year (Burrow, Matt Ryan, Stafford, Baker Mayfield examples).
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