Matt Harmon on Nico Collins
From the video
Nico Collins among all receivers, all relevant receivers in this span has performed like a top top level receiver on a per route basis. He is second in yards per route run. He is 10th in targets per route run and he is sixth in first downs per route run...77% verse man, 82% verse press... Nico Collins has cleared that 77% success rate verse man coverage and 82% success rate verse press coverage barrier for three straight seasons. That is a consistent run of excellence that is honestly only offered up by the consensus best receivers in the NFL during that span of time...he's the closest thing to Julio Jones that we have in the NFL today...he's a top five receiver talent to me.
STACKED’s take
Elite per-route efficiency across three seasons; 77% vs. man, 82% vs. press, 82.7% vs. zone in 2025.
Matt Harmon argues Nico Collins has performed like a top-five receiver in the NFL since 2023 based on per-route efficiency metrics: second in yards per route run, 10th in targets per route run, and sixth in first downs per route run from 2023–2025 among all relevant receivers. Collins ranks among the most productive receivers in the NFL on a per-route basis with elite isolation metrics: 77.1% success rate vs. man coverage, 82.3% vs. press coverage (96th percentile in reception perception history), and 82.7% vs. zone coverage in 2025. He has maintained the 77% man and 82% press thresholds for three consecutive seasons, a consistency level only matched by consensus top-tier NFL receivers. Harmon's reception perception analysis shows Collins cleared these thresholds—met by only 21 players since 2014 and exclusively elite receivers (Antonio Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Adams, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Jackson Smith-Njigba, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashad Bateman). Harmon ranks Collins as a top-5 NFL receiver talent, comparable to Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Devonte Adams, and Dez Bryant (2014) from a charting, role, and effectiveness standpoint; he fits with elite players who have cleared the 90th percentile in success rate versus man and press coverage multiple times in reception perception history, and he's better against zone coverage than many of those elite comparables like Allen Robinson and Terry McLaurin. Harmon concludes: 'If you're an ex receiver and you're winning against man and press coverage at that level and then zone coverage at that level, like guess what? You're one of the best receivers in football, period. Point blank. End of story.' With C.J. Stroud at quarterback (top 10 in EPA per play), Collins has been a top receiver on a per-route basis; the three Davis Mills games do not inflate his metrics. Harmon isolates Collins's per-route production from surrounding variables and concludes he is clearly a top five receiver in the NFL.
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