0:00Matt Harmon here from Reception Perception, here to tell you why Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is better than you think. Let's get into it.
0:17All right, maybe I'm being presumptive when I say that Nico Collins is way better than you think, but I generally believe when I'm
0:26looking out there across I guess maybe general sentiment of NFL fans and even some analysts and respected colleagues in the space, I'm not sure
0:37that people realize just how good Nico Collins is. And if you're familiar with Reception Perception, you know, one, appreciate you coming back. If you're
0:46new to Reception Perception, you probably don't know two things here, which is one, Reception Perception is the charting methodology that I use to
0:54evaluate wide receiver play isolated from surrounding variables. So, purely going in and charting the film, I come up with a full database of metrics to
1:05again try to not just isolate the player from surrounding variables, but also categorize the players based on their archetype, their role,
1:12everything like that. You can find all of that at receptionperception.com.
1:16But again, if you are new here, that's what RP is, a film-based charting series where again the goal is to isolate
1:24players from surrounding variables. The other thing you might not know is that Nico Collins has actually been a flag plant player of mine for quite some
1:31time, even dating back to his in-season rookie report in Reception Perception all the way back in 2021 when he came into the league. RP was pointing out
1:40like, "Hey, this is a guy who is, I mean, right up there with good quality starting X receivers. He is a guy that
1:51really was performing well in isolation even in a very, very chaotic and bad off honestly just a bad and poisoned offensive environment with, you know, up
2:02and down coaching to be kind, mostly down quarterback play.
2:06That probably being kind on that one, too. But Nico Collins again, in isolation, was winning against press man coverage as an X receiver kind of in
2:14like a I don't know maybe like a like early career Tee Higgins honestly type of way was Nico Collins winning. You know, maybe Michael
2:22Gallup type early on in his career. And then Reception Perception also pointed out in 2023 that Nico Collins then had graduated to
2:32a whole whole new level. And I would argue that based on what he's done since 2023, Nico Collins has performed
2:40like a top five receiver in the NFL.
2:44We'll we'll do the rankings discussion at the very end of this video and why that is honestly kind of a poisoned
2:49discussion in general.
2:52A cursed discussion. We'll do that at the end of the video, but he really has played and performed like a top five
2:57receiver. And by the way even if you don't buy into me and you don't buy into Reception Perception, some of the best and most predictive
3:04wide receiver stats have shown that Nico Collins has been performing and producing like a top five wide receiver
3:13since 2023. And so again I'm going to do a little bit of C.J.
3:17Stroud apologist type stuff in here as well. But we're doing 2023 specifically because I think that's when Collins ascended and also when C.J. Stroud got
3:28in the mix here. So, from 2023 to 2025, Nico Collins, among all receivers all relevant receivers in this span
3:37has performed like a top top level receiver on a per route basis. He is second in yards per route run. He is
3:4410th in targets per route run. And he is sixth in first downs per route run. I mean, he keeps the company
3:52with all the best receivers in NFL during the span. I mean, look at the guys that he is up there with. Puka
3:56Nacua, Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk. Uh obviously you're seeing there 104th [snorts] in routes run during this span. And because they were mostly just looking at
4:06that one 2023 season here. So, put him aside for a second, but like CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, you
4:14know, Justin Jefferson obviously in the mix here. You see by the way, uh Rashee Rice. There's 112 receivers in this span
4:20that have run 600 or more routes.
4:23Rashee Rice has the lowest uh air yards per target. Uh so, Nico though, running real deal routes, getting real deal air yards,
4:31and he is one of the most efficient receivers on a per route basis, period, end of story.
4:36So, honestly, from a production standpoint, he's already been there. You do have to do the per route stuff because if we are noting one of the
4:41bigger weaknesses, not player perspective, but weaknesses in like his holistic profile, is that Collins has struggled to stay on the field. He has
4:50consistently missed games with, you know, soft tissue injuries. Things that are issues for him uh to stay on the football field. That's been a big
4:58problem for him, but the production shows he's one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And I think that the film and his reception perception
5:07data really shows a lot about what is so special about Nico Collins. And you know, some of the guys that I've talked
5:15about on the list there, up the most productive receivers on a per route basis, Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, even Justin Jefferson
5:24to a certain degree, although not quite as much as some of these other ones here.
5:29Like we're living in a world where almost all true high-volume number one receivers are getting role catering.
5:36They are moving across the formation to exploit matchups.
5:39I Nico Collins has what I would say is real old school deployment as almost just a pure X receiver. We don't see guys like this
5:48in the NFL anymore.
5:50The 6'4" 215 plus pound wide receivers who take over 80% of their snaps outside and on the line
6:00of scrimmage. And that is exactly who Nico Collins is. In 2025, Collins took just 15.4% of his snap sample for reception perception in the slot. He was
6:11in the backfield for just 0.4% of those snaps. And so again, all that means he was outside on 84.4%.
6:19He took a whopping 89.5% of his sampled snaps on the line of scrimmage. That is going to be one of the highest rates for
6:26any receiver charted from 2025.
6:30We have never seen him through the course of these of the course of his career, he's never taken fewer than 80%
6:36of his snaps on the ball. He's got 3 years north of 89%. Never been in the slot more than 17%. Like this is again,
6:45it's true old school X receiver role that we see in the NFL right now.
6:51To put that into context, I looked at Nico Collins's three average from the last 3 years. So again, we're we're going to throw out
6:59some of the early career stuff and just look at the last 3 years when he's been as we showed one of the most productive
7:05receivers on a per route basis.
7:08Just his average alignment rate during this span, 83% sampled snaps on the outside and 87.3% sampled snaps on the line of scrimmage.
7:19So 83.3% 87%. I looked at the receivers who in Reception Perception history, which is well over 500, nearly 600 players in the
7:31historic NFL database right now on the site, by the way, if you have a Sicko Tier subscription to the site, you
7:37get access to all this historic data. So tons and tons of players going to push close to that 600 here pretty soon.
7:45All those guys, there are only 15 receiver seasons.
7:51Excuse me, 16 individual receiver seasons where a guy took over 83% of their sampled snaps outside and over
8:0187% of their sampled snaps on the line of scrimmage.
8:06These are the following players.
8:08Alec Pierce in his rookie season in 2022. Two seasons worth of Alshon Jeffery.
8:14One DeAndre Hopkins season in 2017. A Deonte Johnson season. That's a funny one. Doriel Green-Beckham. Remember him?
8:21Back in 2015 as a rookie. Kenny Britt in 2016. Kyle Williams, rookie receiver from last year. Basically just used as a
8:28sacrificial X receiver. Two seasons of Marvin Jones. Three seasons of Nico Collins.
8:34Preston Williams, Dolphins 2019 rookie season. Stefon Diggs rookie season, funny enough. Outside X receiver stuff. And Terry McLaurin from 2022. To
8:44put into point how like unusual this is in the modern NFL, this has only happened three times since 2022.
8:56Well, since after 2022. So, 2023 to 2025, these three seasons we're looking at here.
9:00It is indeed two Nico Collins seasons and one Kyle Williams from last year.
9:06So, that's just is insane. If you want to look at it since 2022 and beyond, it's Alec Pierce's rookie season where
9:16he was a true sacrificial X and Terry McLaurin in 2022.
9:20He was outside for 83.4%. He was on the line of scrimmage for 94.6%. So, this level of hyper-concentration at the X
9:29receiver position is not just unusual for high volume receivers, for number one receivers.
9:36It's unusual for like any relevant receiver at this point.
9:41Nico Collins is a true outlier among the top and most productive receivers in the NFL for how much he is lining up at X
9:49receiver.
9:50And I think that is so important to put into context with his role because within that very old-school high degree of difficulty
9:59role, he has been outright freaking dominant, man. I mean, and not just again, we showed the per route stuff.
10:08And obviously, any sort of wide receiver stat, even the good ones, like first downs per route run, yards per route run, targets per route run, those are
10:15good stats, but they're not player isolating. That's the goal of Reception Perception, where he has been flat out one of the best receivers
10:24charted over the last three seasons.
10:2677.1% success rate versus man coverage, 82.3% success rate versus press. I mean, those are going to be among the best for
10:35any player charted in 2025. Uh that press coverage number, by the way, of just shy of 83% is at the 96th
10:42percentile in Reception Perception history.
10:46He was unbelievably good in isolation this past season, and that's what again makes him such a unique throwback receiver because he's he's this guy that
10:57lines up at X, and he wins against press man coverage, especially on the breaking routes, right? You're seeing the route charts here.
11:04The success rate on the digs and the outs where he runs a high volume.
11:08Unbelievable stuff there. We noted also that he ran a ton of um like slants and digs. I'll give Nick Caley a lot of
11:18credit here. You know, I'm certainly raising my eyebrow at that alignment, right? Like we need to get Nico Collins more snaps away from X receiver, period,
11:26end of story. But I will give Nick Caley a ton of credit that he got him the routes that he I mean Nico's good
11:34across the route tree obviously as you're seeing. He he can absolutely stack and and and line up on the boundary and win on go routes, but he's
11:42at his best on these breaking routes like outs, digs, and slants. Especially those routes over the middle of the field and that accounted for the vast
11:49majority of his route tree. 46.8% of his charted routes were slants and digs.
11:53There are very few receivers as good as Nico Collins working the middle of the field right now in the NFL today. He is
12:00right among the best. Especially again with how much he is running from the X receiver position. If you're wondering why like why is Nico Collins
12:08I have him in fantasy and like why does he kind of come and go from a production standpoint? Well, that's because he's
12:14running routes from the boundary as the outside receiver, the X, which was a longer developing routes, especially those big digs. And yeah, CJ Stroud
12:23playing a little bit of chaos behind a bad offensive line, sometimes also creating his own chaos. We can we can acknowledge that. A team that is because
12:30they've been the 31st ranked run game in success rate since CJ Stroud was drafted in 2023.
12:3831st, folks. Second worst run game on a success rate basis since 2023. That means they're constantly behind the sticks, okay?
12:47Teams know they're in pass first situations on second and third down especially.
12:52They're sending. They're they're they're they're like they're trying to get after CJ Stroud in those situations. Stroud knows it, which I think
12:59Look, again, I'm doing a little bit of CJ Stroud apology here because he was a top 10 quarterback in EPA per play. I
13:04know and I put out the stats that his like play in the playoffs from an efficiency EPA per dropback standpoint was one of the one of the worst runs
13:12we've seen since 2017. It is a bottom 10 playoff performance. And you know that if you watch it. You don't need the EPA
13:19to back that up. You saw it. It was dreadful. Not just against New England, which by the way he didn't have Nico
13:24Collins in that game, but also against the Pittsburgh Steelers even though they won that game, he was not good in that
13:28one either.
13:30But I think we've over-indexed on that's the last thing we saw, okay, with C.J. Stroud. Because again, in the regular season, even if one of the games
13:38everybody watched, Seattle Seahawks, primetime game, was not very good in that contest, either. He still was a top-10 quarterback sandwiched between
13:45Sam Darnold and Patrick Mahomes in EPA per dropback. Patrick Mahomes, even in a down year, still widely considered one of the best quarterbacks
13:51in the NFL. Sam Darnold won the freaking Super Bowl, all right? Nico Collins has put up all these great stats with, yes,
13:56that's right, C.J. Stroud mostly at quarterback. So, uh Stroud does need to improve in some ways. I would be foolish not to
14:02acknowledge that, but you know, he's not this detriment to Collins like producing going forward. I think these guys actually have a really good
14:09connection and chemistry. But my point in saying all that is these big breaking routes, longer time to develop, we can we can change that a little bit
14:17here, but regardless, point is Collins has been dominant in isolation in this span of time. I talked about those success rates, the overall success
14:28success rates from this past year, like 77% versus man, 82% versus press. That is nothing new. Nico Collins has cleared that 77% success rate versus man
14:39coverage and 82% success rate versus press coverage barrier for three straight seasons. That is a consistent run of excellence that is honestly
14:49only offered up by the consensus best receivers in the NFL during that span of time.
14:54Like he's just a marvel to watch separate on tape.
14:58Sinks in and out of his breaks with ease. He's super fluid. Like this is one of the most athletic receivers in the
15:04NFL. I don't think we give him enough credit for what a freak show he is.
15:08And by the way, in conjunction with that success rate versus man and press coverage number, he was at 82%
15:1982.7% success rate versus zone coverage and 83rd percentile mark.
15:24That is just narrowly better than his previous career best number from 2024.
15:29That is one of the best numbers that we're going to see. Really good solid number. If you're an X receiver and you're winning
15:36against man and press coverage at that level and then zone coverage at that level, like guess what? You're one of the best receivers in football, period.
15:41Point blank. End of story. And again, to put this into context at the receiver position, I looked at the guys through Reception
15:51Perception history who have cleared 77% success rate versus man coverage, 82% success rate versus zone coverage, and 82% success rate versus press coverage.
16:01So, where Nico Collins was last year.
16:04It has happened 21 times in Reception Perception history, which goes back to 2014 to the current season.
16:12These are the players who have done it.
16:14Antonio Brown did it twice.
16:16Brandon Aiyuk in 2023 did it that season. CeeDee Lamb has done it twice.
16:20Davante Adams has done it four times.
16:22Ja'Marr Chase has done it.
16:25Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year, he did it.
16:27Justin Jefferson has done it three times.
16:30By the way, I haven't charted Chase and Jefferson from this past season, so it's realistically possible that they've done it a couple of times here as well.
16:36Michael Thomas, he did it.
16:39Nico Collins has done it twice. Odell Beckham Jr. did it.
16:43Rashod Bateman did it in 2024. That's That's my one outlier, but we can, you know, all right. It's happened once to a
16:49guy that is really good on tape. He was in that 2024 season.
16:53Okay.
16:54You You guys know, if you've been watching the channel, my My therapist doesn't allow me to talk about Rashod Bateman. So, we're going to skip past
16:59that one, but he's a guy that did it.
17:00And then Stefon Diggs did it twice. That is, other than Bateman, those are all like elite receivers in the NFL. That's the company that Nico
17:09Collins has kept not just this past year, but for multiple seasons.
17:15For multiple seasons now, we have seen Nico Collins perform at that level.
17:20He is a superstar.
17:23No question about it. Wins it all three levels of the route tree, wins against press man coverage. By the way, much
17:29better after the catch than you would think.
17:31He was in space not as much as you'd want. 44% of his sample catches last year was in space.
17:37Those are plays that I chart where he's in the open field with an opportunity to break a tackle. He went down on first
17:41contact on less than half of those plays. Excuse me, 42% of his catches were in space. 44% first down or first
17:48contact drop.
17:50He's an awesome player with the ball in his hands. He's a big ball winner. I mean, he just checks all the boxes.
17:55Honestly, we're going to pull up the player comparison tool to really make the point here.
18:00From a effectiveness and a usage standpoint, this is a tool on our site, by the way. You can get this tool with
18:07any level of subscription to the site.
18:09Use the full historic database to compare players across the entire history of reception perception. Look at the comps for Nico Collins here.
18:19Four Three of the top four comparisons here are DeAndre Hopkins and two Julio Jones seasons.
18:27I think because the Texans are regarded as a defense-first team, which they are.
18:33Obviously, their defense is badass.
18:35And let's be honest here. I Listen, I talk about the Texans a lot, but they're not a team that gets a ton of national
18:40media pop. And when they do, it usually is because of that defense. We're like, "What's What do we do about C.J. Stroud?
18:44We need to contact the Texans." Blah, blah, blah. That whole deal.
18:47I don't think Nico gets highlighted enough. By the way, Nico Collins is not one of these like diva receivers who's out there making it all about him.
18:55This guy, by the way, I I did an interview with him uh a few years ago at the Super Bowl, which if you're familiar
18:59with like the Super Bowl process, it's like a car wash where guys come in with the sponsorships and, you know, they're
19:04just they're like trying to they're there to make some money, okay?
19:09It's fine.
19:10It's what they supposed to do. That's what they should do. Take advantage of your brand and your spotlight and make some money doing some of those Super
19:15Bowl interviews. They're sponsored by whatever product.
19:18>> [gasps] >> Nico comes by and he didn't have a sponsor to to do an interview with us at Yahoo.
19:23And it was an awesome interview. You can check it out on the Yahoo Yahoo Fantasy YouTube channel, I believe. Might be the Yahoo Sports
19:29YouTube channel. Anyways, we'll find the video. We'll We'll link in the description below. Awesome conversation with Nico. And yeah, just did it not even there with a sponsor.
19:36He's just there to kind of talk ball, chop it up, talk about what being an X receiver is with with me. Super fun. Um but yeah, again,
19:43he's not the one of these diva wide receivers that's out there like trying to get attention or anything, you know?
19:47He's just trying to Not that there's anything wrong anything wrong with that. But Nico doesn't really bring that spotlight on himself in that
19:54way. Not one of these divas, you know, out there crypto cryptic tweeting, whatever.
20:00So, my point in all that to say, I think he just doesn't get the attention nationally, at least in my mind,
20:07that he probably deserves. Like, look at those two Julio Jones comparisons. He's the closest thing to Julio Jones that we have in the NFL today.
20:14It It's just I know that sounds like a crazy thing to say because Julio Jones and look, is he the true alien
20:22that that Julio Jones is? Maybe not, right? Okay, we can use a little bit of qualitative discussion here and debate the merits of that. But from a charting
20:32standpoint, from a role standpoint, from an effectiveness standpoint, he's putting up that kind of film right now, okay? He's very comparable to a
20:41Julio Jones, to a DeAndre Hopkins, who we showed, to a Davante Adams, who we showed, to a Dez Bryant 2014, right?
20:52Like Justin Jefferson comparison here. Yes, I do see the two Aiyuk seasons and the Bateman seasons. But like these classic old-school X receivers that Dez Bryant
21:02season is from 2014.
21:06Old-school X receiver stuff for Nico Collins. And as we showed at the beginning of the video, he's one of the most efficient receivers on a per route
21:13basis.
21:14He is one of the best receivers in reception perception from a charting standpoint. He fits in with some truly elite players.
21:24This is a guy that is just I mean, he's he is he's damn near special.
21:30He's he's a special player, period. I mean, he is a rockstar of a wideout. He fits in a group of players that has cleared the 90th
21:40percentile in success rate versus man and press coverage multiple times in reception perception history.
21:47Some of the players we've talked about previously, but it's like it's AJ Brown, it's Allen Robinson, it's CeeDee Lamb, it's Garrett Wilson, Nico Collins, Odell
21:53Beckham, Terry McLaurin, and he's better against zone coverage than a lot of those guys like Robinson and McLaurin, the guys who haven't quite got there,
22:01right? Like Garrett Wilson, you know?
22:03Man, Nico Collins, pretty damn special player.
22:08Guy who has been incredibly good over the course of the last three seasons. Flat-out one of the best receivers in the NFL. And and when
22:15I come back to like the cursed and ultimately, you know, other than like for fun, the wide receiver rankings exercise is
22:23meaningless.
22:24It's fun, I get it. Offseason content, you know, you got to do it.
22:28Debating on the internet, if that's what you want to do, that's okay.
22:31But like he's a top-five receiver talent to me.
22:35If you don't put him in the top five, you got to put him like six, seven.
22:39I know the issue there is that he runs up to like Amon-Ra St. Brown in the rankings, and the reality is like him
22:45and Amon-Ra St. Brown like basically play two different positions. Like St. Brown is not asked to do what Nico does, and Nico's not asked to do what
22:53St. Brown is. And they're and they're both excellent at their respective roles.
22:57So, you know, it's kind of makes them tough to compare. But the The point of that is that like these guys are both top five NFL
23:04receivers. And Nico Collins absolutely based on reception perception, based on what we've seen here, is a top five NFL receiver. So, how can we get Nico to
23:11have one of those seasons from a production standpoint to match with that? I think number one, he's just got to stay healthy, which who knows if he
23:18will, that's something we can't control, he can't control, that's just we're you know, players are injury prone until they're not, okay? That's how that goes.
23:26So, we'll see about that. I do think the Texans as an environment have to obviously be better.
23:32I like the moves they've made along the offensive line this year. I think the offensive line can go from being a real
23:35problem to you know, like not the worst unit in the NFL.
23:40I think C.J. Stroud has gotten a little bit over hated due to the playoffs. I don't actually think he's a big problem
23:45for Nico Collins' this discussion like his production and everything. Again, top 10 quarterback in EPA per play. Nico has been a top
23:53receiver on a per route basis when C.J.
23:56Stroud has been the quarterback.
23:57There's not those three Davis Mills games that people obsess over that are pumping up Nico Collins' per route production. I promise you that.
24:05So, the other part of it, too, is just I do think he needs to get moved around more. Like, we talked about the
24:12complete outlier usage heavy X receiver usage for Nico Collins. I do think that needs to change. Will that change? That is up to offensive coordinator Nick
24:19Caserio. Look, Nico's so good as a elite press man beater, it's hard to say like, "Oh, I don't want to play him at X
24:26receiver cuz like he's one of the best X receivers in the NFL." But, I think you can really maximize him, allow him to take that next step like a
24:33Ja'Marr Chase did, by the way, when he stopped being an X exclusive player and was moved around the formation cuz they started throwing Tee Higgins
24:41out at X receiver. I think Jaylen Higgins is a really good big Z like movement receiver. He fits well in that
24:47role, but I also think he could take like 30% of his snaps at X to allow you to get Nico Collins some of these layups
24:54and move around the formation. I think Jaylen Noel could be an on-ball slot.
24:57Where you can then cut Nico across formation. I We'll see about Tank Dell.
25:01I hope Tank Dell is healthy cuz he was awesome as a rookie in 2023.
25:06He played mostly on the perimeter.
25:08You can have a perimeter receiver in Jayden Higgins and a perimeter receiver in Tank Dell if he's healthy and like 75% of himself that he was in his rookie
25:16year.
25:17That's two guys you can play on the outside. You can move Nico Collins around. There's a lot of potential for that to happen here and I do think it
25:23could happen with Nico Collins. But again, the point of this video, the point of Reception Perception is to isolate him from surrounding variables
25:29and when you do that, you see that this is clearly a top-five receiver in the NFL.
25:35Hope you like this video. If you did, subscribe to the channel. Got videos coming out all the way up to NFL week one. And well and well
25:45beyond that, too. I mean, we're going to be pumping out a ton of content on this channel. If you liked what you saw in
25:48this video, you will definitely like what you'll find on receptionperception.com where you get individual player profiles like the one we showed with Nico
25:54Collins. You can get access to the player comparison tool, my dynasty rankings tool as well and so much more.
26:01With that, I'm Matt Harmon. I will see you all in the next video.