From the video
Christian McCaffrey, the fifth pick of the first round... he has the running back one overall upside... but also he has the red flags that maybe other running backs in the first round simply do not... The underlying metrics last year made him look like one of the worst rushers in the league. He was 39th in yards per carry, 31st in success rate, 37th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards, 32nd in rate of runs to gain yardage, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt... the three previous running backs that had 450 touches. Saquon Barkley, DeMarco Murray, Aryan Foster fell off an absolute cliff the next season. It was a drop of anywhere from 5 to seven points per game.
STACKED’s take
RB1 upside but poor metrics and 450-touch precedent signal major bust risk.
Despite RB1 upside, McCaffrey presents significant downside risk at ADP 5 (round 1). Last season's rushing metrics were poor: 39th in yards per carry, 31st in success rate, 37th in rate of runs gaining 10+ yards, 32nd in rate of runs gaining yardage, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. Historical precedent is concerning: the three previous 450-touch RBs (Saquon Barkley, DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster) fell off a cliff the next season with 5-7 PPG drops. McCaffrey is 30 years old and faces similar risk; additionally, the 49ers have stated they want to scale back his workload this year after last season's volume, which would hurt his ceiling. The negative outcome here could completely derail an entire fantasy season. Speaker notes prior-year success (drafted last year with positive results) informs continued confidence despite acknowledging downside risk.
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