0:00We spend all summer telling you who to draft. Today I tell you who to avoid.
0:03Yes. Who not to draft? The players that are landmines for me in rounds one through 14. Hayden, your episode is up
0:10already. That one I believe is titled the 16 players to avoid ahead of round 10. I'm taking you beyond round 10, 11,
0:1712, up to 14 rounds. And I'm not playing it lightly here, Hayden. Some of these names, uh, >> you know, getting a lot of positivity
0:24out there, but I'm telling you why it might not end up the best possible outcome for them this season. Yeah, I
0:29like kicking uh other people's sleepers in the 12th round. That's what we're doing here. And remember, you don't uh dislike these players because the price
0:36tags. You hate these players personally.
0:37It's a personal vendetta.
0:40>> You know, I think with every single player, and this is a good exercise for a lot of them, is you can go through,
0:47hey, the high-end outcome, the positive outcome is this. And maybe too often we associate the season going to happen with that. and [clears throat] maybe we
0:54don't talk about the negative pathway or or narrative uh enough. And today again, some of these players I actually like, but maybe we haven't highlighted that
1:03negative outcome enough. So, let let's do that here.
1:06>> And that kicks us off in the first round with Christian McCaffrey. [laughter] >> Oh my gosh. Okay, man.
1:11>> Yeah, he's the fifth pick. By the way, all of these are going to be from home league ADPs. We aggregated every single
1:18site, every single platform that you use and that is what is making up these ADPs. So all of you get a taste of this.
1:24So yes, Christian McCaffrey, the fifth pick of the first round. Hey, I can't shake the idea that last year was the
1:32one year to draft Chris McAffrey, which all of you did because of this channel, and now we're just chasing that all over
1:38again. Like, as always, he has the running back one overall upside. He he did that last season, but also he has
1:45the red flags that maybe other running backs in the first round simply do not.
1:49Just not even talking about the injuries for a second. The underlying metrics last year made him look like one of the
1:54worst rushers in the league. He was 39th in yards per carry, 31st in success rate, 37th in rate of runs to gain 10 or
2:02more yards, 32nd in rate of runs to gain yardage, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. That's not just one thing
2:09that the offensive line might have impacted. It's also him as an individual in a lot of those things too. And then
2:15number one overall is the three previous running backs that had 450 touches.
2:20Saquon Barkley, DeMarco Murray, Aryan Foster fell off an absolute cliff the next season. It was a drop of anywhere from 5 to seven points per game. Okay.
2:30And those guys were 26 and 27 years old.
2:34And Chris McCaffrey here is 30th overall. So obviously if this works out CMC like he has been can be the one that
2:41you need. But Hayden the the negative outcome here is one that completely derails your season and it might not happen in backtoback years.
2:48>> Yeah definitely. So um I I will say if we were drafting solely based on last year he would go 101. So it's kind of
2:55like that sliding scale of how much risk do you want to take on? I've been comfortable around Jonathan Taylor. Um, but it seems like you're even pushing
3:03that further away after Monroe Brown, after Jackson Smith and Jigba. Stop me when you hear a name where you you would
3:10say, "Okay, I'd rather take the risk."
3:11>> It might be it might be Saquon Barkley taking the risk ahead of CMC this year.
3:15>> Like I keep saying it like >> last year's CMC might be this year's Saquon Barkley. I sat here at this time
3:22last season and advocated for Saquon despite that 450 touch mark that I just mentioned to you and I don't think Saquin fell off a cliff
3:31>> individually but it shows that this entire thing can be environmental too and in this case everyone around CMC was injured last season so they had no
3:41choice but to feed him despite the lack of efficiency and explosiveness. Uh and again like two 2019 he had 400 touches
3:50then he played three games and seven games the next two seasons. In 2022 and 2023 he had 330 touches and then play
3:57four games the next season. So uh >> I don't know. I love all first round picks. It is tough to bring up a name
4:04for this but again this is the uh pathway that it can derail your entire fantasy season with just one click when
4:11I think there are a lot of other good picks to be made in round one. They kind of say this every offseason, but they
4:16really did say for Chris McCaff they want to scale back his workload this year. Just it was like too much and that
4:20what they did last year. So like I think there's a good chance he does not meet those touches on a per game basis which
4:25would hurt his his overall ceiling. Fact that Caitlin Black's having a good camp matters a little bit. Also wanted to mention the 49ers owner Jed York like he
4:33doesn't even live in California anymore.
4:34Like I think that ownership there's like pretty much not an owner with the 49ers right now to the fact that they might be
4:39like selling the team or something going on. There's the lack of leadership in general with the 49ers right now is kind
4:44of like eye opening after, you know, reading about the case the last couple days.
4:48>> And again, I'm not trying to hedge. I just am stating overall I am not out on Coach McCaffrey. I I understand the
4:54upside and I understand why he is a good pick. Uh that's just the only reason why I made him the selection here in round
5:01one. Okay.
5:02>> Right.
5:03>> Round two, it's the same name that you had. I mean, in every platform out there, Josh Allen is a second round
5:09pick. the 10th pick of the second round.
5:11You simply can't take a quarterback this early. It It's that simple. Like, let's do a simple exercise, right? A 2v2.
5:18Okay. Would you rather have Nico Collins and Dak Prescott or Josh Allen and Courtland Sutton, which are rounds two and seven picks? Right. Here's another
5:27one. Would you rather have Brock Bowers and Bicks in rounds two and rounds nine or Josh Allen and Travis Kelce? Like in
5:35each of those, >> I would rather have the non Josh Allen teams. So he's my quarterback one. He's everyone's quarterback one. I expect him
5:43to finish out the quarterback one. But you're just giving up a massive opportunity to either take a onesie position in Brock Bowers or you're
5:52starting wide receiver one or running back one potentially here at the end of round two.
5:56>> Yeah. And I think that's especially true in full PPR. And I know about half of you guys play in a league that's full
6:01PPR and like that gap widens even more in that format just because you know you get an extra half point per reception.
6:08So keep that in mind for drafting Josh Allen. I I feel great about him at 30 second overall, but he never gets there.
6:14>> Never gets there. And I could do a hundred more 2v2s. Those are just just the first two that sprung to mind when
6:20going through this ADP that I'm using of exactly like the next pick that was after that, you know, was a player at
6:26the same position and all that type of stuff. Okay, round three. To me, there are no bad picks. Like, I think everyone
6:31here at cost is pretty fine, but I'm going to go with Josh Jacobs, even though I understand that the 34th overall pick bakes in some negative
6:41outcomes here. Uh, and it's somewhat understandable for me. First, actually, today when we're recording this, um, there is a possible suspension on the
6:49way as we've heard from Adam Shaper a couple weeks ago. This is a full quote and let's say the full quote from
6:54Packers GM Brian Gudikunst uh on plans for if and when Josh Jacobs is suspended. Quote, "We've obviously been preparing for that in case that happens,
7:03but at the same time, I feel really good about the guys we have in that room."
7:07So, that's one thing. The other thing, Hayden, is the Packers offensive line was rough last year. the top unit only played together 18% of the time and then
7:18the one guy that played for 17 games and Rasheed Walker is no longer a part of this organization. Their best offensive
7:24lineman and Zack Tom partially tore his patellar tendon in week 14 of last year.
7:29I think you can argue that Josh Jacobs is all volume and all the volume inside of the red zone on top of it. I think
7:37he's been fifth in red zone scoring among running backs in each of the last two seasons. But part of that is there's
7:43been no direct backup behind it. I mean, literally no. It's Chris Brooks who's like a pseudo fullback and then I can't
7:49name you any of the running backs other than Emanuel Wilson who might be the running back four on the Seattle Seahawks this year. And so it's
7:56different this year. You know, so far it's Marshon Lloyd. And so at the very least if we get a two, four, six game
8:01suspension for Josh Jacobs, uh, then you have another ball carrier standing in there. Uh, and then I believe he actually has more competition to rather
8:10than owning, you know, 70% of the workload when he's actually in there in ball game.
8:14>> Yeah, I I've always appreciated Josh Jacobs game, but he is not quite as explosive as he was in his absolute
8:20prime. It's a lot of touches on his body. The offensive line is a straightup disaster. Like they're having like full-blown hourlong podcasts over on
8:28Packers Land about just the left guard spot and, you know, h how bad it's been over there. uh looking at like the top
8:35running backs that go in the top 50 uh overall picks on Yahoo, Josh Jacobs was second worst in rush yards over expected
8:43uh last season only ahead of Ashton Genty. Um I will say he was the RB12 last year. I think he can replicate that
8:51and I think if you get an RB12 season in your third round it's fine. Uh but there there's definitely more downside uh this
8:58year than there was previously and I don't think the offensive line's going to like turn it around all of a sudden.
9:02He's been a very good, you know, what you're getting every single week in terms of touches, in terms of receptions, but also the high value
9:10areas of the field, in terms of the red zone, the 10 yard line. It just seems a bit more fragile this year to me than
9:15the past. And also, we keep talking about, hey, the Packers just going to play faster and throw the football more this year, too.
9:21>> They should. They should.
9:22>> They should. Round four is actually one of my favorite young talents in the league. Unfortunately, I have to say Quinch Judkins. I think he was the best
9:32rookie runner in the NFL last year. He should be even better as a runner this year after improved offensive line investments. But simply but I'm nervous
9:42about the Browns scoring enough points.
9:44And like most importantly, [laughter] I'm nervous about the Browns scoring uh points and then having their defense prevent the other team from scoring
9:54points. Like the defense last year kept them in games that they should not have been competitive in and won them games
10:01that they should not have won. Right now the Browns are only favored in two contests. Okay. Last year's defense with, you know, a guy named Miles
10:08Garrett who set the NFL sack record a part of that squad. They kept the Bengals to 17 points, the Packers to 10,
10:14the Dolphins to six, the Raiders to 10, the Steelers to six, and the Bengals to 18 last year. So they created
10:20environments where Quinchon Judkins uh could have a higher share and a higher volume of touches than I think he probably will have this season even if
10:31this year's environment of Todd Monkin and offensive line investments should be again a better situation for him to run in.
10:38>> Yeah, he was the RB23 on RB17 usage as a rookie. So he was not efficient even though the tape was telling me this
10:45guy's awesome at football. Um, and there were some crazy splits. He had 14 fantasy points uh per game the two games
10:53with Flaco. But with Shador Sanders and Dylan Gabriel, that was at 9.5 and 11.7.
10:58So like when they had like some semblance of normal quarterback play, he was fine at this price. And then in the
11:05other games, he was not. So I wish that he, you know, catches the ball maybe a little bit more, but that's what Dylan
11:12Samson's good at. He's going to h have all the goal line carries. It's just a matter of how many goal line carries it
11:17is. is. And I think it's a really good point about the defense where um if they're like average on defense this
11:22year, which I think is the most likely outcome, like this team is not going to be able to run the ball in the fourth
11:26quarter. Um >> yeah, >> makes me nervous.
11:29>> Um I'll probably draft a lot of Quinton Judkins in 2027. We didn't even mention the injury he's coming off of, too,
11:34which has, you know, not necessarily led to less opportunity, but it has led to less effectiveness for players who are actually on the field. Um, and again,
11:44this this is no indication of Quinch Judkins as a player. I am readily happy to say that Todd Monkin is good for him.
11:52The offensive line is good for him. Just think the whole situation, despite, you know, how many points they scored last year, and that was low in the totem
12:00pole. I just don't think they're going to be as >> in as many neutral or close game scripts as they were last year. And like they
12:06didn't have anyone to throw to last year at points other than Harold Fannon. and Sansky was like, "Okay, we'll still run
12:11the ball even though we're down some points in the fourth quarter." I don't think Todd Monk is going to do that. I
12:15think he's going to want to throw to Fannon and Casey Conception and Denzel >> Boston.
12:19>> Yes.
12:19>> Yeah. Hopefully that means they actually can move the ball and they can get some red zone uh opportunities for him. But
12:24to your point about the environment, he faced the highest rate of eight plus defenders in the box at 45% of his
12:30carries according to NextGen stat uh stats. So, he has to be really good to overcome it. And then we'll see about
12:36the offensive line. pretty much an entirely new starting five up front. Um maybe a couple of those guys hit. Most likely scenario is all those guys were
12:45available for a reason and it's not going to be a good offensive line.
12:48>> Yeah, they they had 2.2 red zone drives per game last year and that was 29th in the league. So hopefully that is better.
12:54Hopefully that is better.
12:55>> Two bad 2.2. There are a lot of in the twos. Um okay, round five. Trevian Henderson. I am a Tvian Henderson
13:05optimist and yet I still been unable to draft Trivia Henderson because of you absolute sickos that continue to draft Hindo above Reandre Stevenson. This is
13:15the consensus in home leagues that Hindo is going ahead of Arandre Stevenson. We repeat it feels like every single show but you are taking the running back two
13:23over the running back one in again this aggregation of all home league ADPs.
13:28Trevian Henderson is 60th overall.
13:30Raandre is a full round later at 72nd overall. Greg Badard has covered this team for a very long time. He says, not
13:36even a discussion. Raandre is the way better back at everything. Week one, we're going to see Roandre Stevenson back there in the first series and on
13:45the first carry and all that type of stuff. So, hey, I don't know how many times we have to repeat this, but uh I'm
13:50going to once again because it keeps sticking.
13:52>> Yep. I have almost no new notes behind uh beyond that. It's going to be hard for him to ever steal the goal line work
13:59from Raandre, just looking at the size.
14:01And I think the same thing is for pass protection, too. It's not just an awareness thing with him last year. I
14:05thought that there was times where he knew who to block and he was just unable to do it because he's wasn't big enough.
14:09And I think it's, you know, hard to overcome that. Uh, so I think you're drafting a awesome elite contingent up upside back just too early.
14:19>> Do you think you and I are weak onerained about this?
14:24Um perhaps, but like the guys that that that are going around him like Jadarian Price goes right after him. Like >> right,
14:31>> doesn't that guy also have tons of upside too? Like I think you play this game like what if what if and it's like
14:35the other guys around him like Sam Leaporta goes right next to him. Could Sam Laaporta go absolutely crazy on this Lions team? Like of course he can. Like
14:42everyone around him has upside. Bachel Tutin has upside around him. DJ Moore has upside. So it's like yes of course he has upside. So does everyone else
14:48around him. The reason why I don't think this is weak onerained is because Raandre isn't just some washed veteran who's hanging on, right?
14:58>> You know, he's actually a good football player. He was Yeah.
15:01>> You know, in our running back sleeper show last off seasonason and he turned out to be very good. And then for those
15:06of us that did draft Trevon Henderson for that stretch of the season, he was very good too, you know, in terms of
15:11scoring a whole bunch of fantasy points.
15:13Um, Hendo needs that. He I think he outright needs to have the vast majority of the work uh in order to kind of pay
15:21off this ADP.
15:22>> The Patriots gave Raandre a $36 million contract. Like this is not like some pushover.
15:27>> Round six. At first I had Mike Evans, who's the third pick of the sixth round.
15:32We just kind of did a whole show on this. I mean, we talked through it already.
15:35>> Yeah.
15:35>> Quad injury, groin. He hasn't even gotten to his hamstring yet. Um so I'll propose another one. And again, this is
15:44tough, but I want to do the tough work and force a mirror looking back at us, Hayden, because this is an offense that
15:50I was buying in on in the early points of this offseason, but we've basically only gotten negative reports since then.
15:55For the sixth round, I'm going to say Jaden Daniels.
15:58>> Okay, the Commanders are 17th in projected points. Well, at least they were. And that was before the Larry Tonsel injury. And what we always notice
16:07when we reflect on these seasons of which teams overperformed and specifically underperformed their projected totals, it all comes down to well, their offensive line was injured
16:18and it wasn't talented. I mean, what we have gotten, not just this week, but throughout camp is that this commander's offensive line has been kind of a train
16:28wreck ever since Larry Tonsel went down from Nikki Jabala. Uh, this is the worst I've ever seen the Commander offense in
16:34years. Inoperable offensive line from John Kim. They need Nick Aligretti healthy. They need more depth. So, we've gotten Brennon Coleman moving to left
16:44tackle, which he did play during Jaden Daniels rookie season. Uh, but the loss to Jeremy Tonsel, Hayden, as you know, means you can't just put your left
16:51tackle on an island anymore and then have your other four blockers work on the other three pass rushers. Like, now you actually have to give him attention,
16:59give him help. And that changed the entire equation and complexion of your front five. Like Aligretti, the center has barely practiced. Sam Cosby was out
17:08sick today on top of it. Plus has been injured in the past. Plus, they're shifting to a totally new offensive line
17:14and one we aren't sure that Jane Daniels can operate in at a high level. So, while I was hyping up Terry McLaren at
17:19the start of this offseason, uh, again, it is starting to get like chipped away of my confidence level. This is the
17:25offense that's going to like take one of the biggest steps forward in the NFL this year. Yeah, first time play caller,
17:31bad offensive line. Um, and then like, you know, they're gonna have to scheme around Chi as a blocker if he's going to
17:37be their starter. There's it's one of the worst running back groups there is as well. Stepp Diggs is an older guy and
17:44seems like he's going to be maybe in a part-timeish role. And then Terry McLuren uh is like the clear alpha of of
17:50the group. Um, but he's an older player that who's had some injuries here and there as well. So, it's there's a lot
17:56that has to kind of go right for a while. Jaden Daniels was considered the quarterback three in consensus. He's last in that tier to me and I I would
18:04rather have Jaylen Herdz straight up. I don't to me it's like not even a question anymore. Um and I don't draft
18:11that much Terry McLuren at the four five turn because he's Larry Mutansel is uh issues. So I don't really see like the
18:17reason to be stacking Jaden Daniels. So I really haven't clicked him in quite a while and I feel I feel pretty good
18:22about it.
18:22>> Yeah, Jaden is the second pick of the sixth round in your home leagues. Uh Jaylen Herz is the fifth pick of the
18:28sixth round. So I just rather take Jaylen Herz in that way. And again, some of you might say, well, if the offensive
18:34line's bad, that means Jaden Daniels is just going to scramble. Um maybe that could happen. At the same time, as we
18:41have seen, I think we're allowed to be slightly nervous of when Jane Daniels takes a lot of hits, and that can happen
18:46with offensive line, and that can happen even more when he scramles on top of it, too. There's another report as well that
18:52they've removed a lot of the designed quarterback rush attempts for him. They want him to just scramble around, but you know, um there's limitations to to
19:02asking your quarterback to scramble around that much like you're like you're talking about here.
19:05>> And again, this could be we look back on training camp in August and be like, remember when everyone was worried about
19:11the commander offensive line? Uh that was the case, you know, a couple of seasons ago during his rookie season and Cliff's rookie season.
19:18>> But at the same time, You and I both believe that offensive line and understanding if they're good or bad or
19:26predicting it correctly is one of the biggest edges when it comes to fantasy football. And again, it this has not been a clean uh last few weeks here for
19:33the commanders at all.
19:34>> No. And I remember the offseason when they uh cut biottish um the Chargers paid more money than what the commanders
19:42saved by releasing him, which is like never a good sign. Like that was just like a bad like we're just not on top of
19:47it like as a entire team. Yeah, and it doesn't just seem like the starters have struggled. It just seems like they don't
19:53have any depth either behind it. And at some point, they're going to go down with starters as well in season. And
19:58then who do they turn to when they're already turning to backups? So, it's concerning. It's on my radar to say the
20:03least.
20:04>> Round seven, Harold Fannon. Uh, this is the fourth pick in the seventh round.
20:09Um, I mean, 43 of his 76 receptions last year were caught less than five yards down the field per PFF. 53 of his 76
20:19receptions were on first read targets.
20:21We've talked about it at length this year that he was the easy button for Kevin Safansky last offseason, last season that when you needed a surge,
20:31when you need a first down, when you need a boost to actually sustain a drive, Harold Fan was there and he was
20:37great at it. I mean, absorbing all those targets at that age and winning after the catch, >> that shows a lot. Uh, I just think Todd
20:44Monkin soon as he was hired looked at the film and said, "Uh, I'm going to get my guys." And he got Casey Conpion and
20:50he got Denzel Boston in the top 40 overall picks. And specifically with Casey Conpion, how he can't stop saying that we're not going to stop getting him
20:59the football. Uh, that's the new easy button. That's the new PPR sponge. Uh, and maybe even a scam if you want to
21:05have a negative connotation to it. And, uh, I think that's going to impact Harold Van here a bit.
21:10>> I know. I hate to say it as well. Well, he he goes too early on on Yahoo for for my for my liking here. I guess maybe in
21:16full PPR. Um I loved Fannon as a prospect. He was sensational. He's one of the best yards after catch players in
21:23the league. Nobody has the they don't take the right angle to him and then he like bounces off these guys. He's one of
21:29the most interesting players in the league. And at the same time, the tight ends getting that level of first read targets like that takes a very rare
21:37circumstance to happen. Maybe Harold Fannon is literally just one of the best tight ends uh there is and that's just he's just going to be so good that it
21:45doesn't matter. Um but we'll see if that actually happens here. I think it's going to be hard to overcome the Browns
21:50offense.
21:51>> Yeah, I straight up have George KD ahead. I know other people do not, but uh he's going about 13 picks after
21:57Harold Fannon here right now when we're combining all these home league ADPs.
22:01Round eight, RJ Harvey. He's still going really high Aiden in a bunch of home leagues right now. Um, last season it
22:09was a two-way backfield. JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey that condensed to one person when JK Dobbins went down injured. Now it's a three-way backfield that will
22:20condense down to two if and when JK Dobbins gets injured. And if that's the case, then Jonah Coleman has kind of
22:28some overlapping skills with JK Dobbins, whereas I would say R.J. Harvey has maybe some isolated skills that neither of those guys necessarily have. And so
22:37this is just an assumption, but I would assume that Jonakoma would inherit a lot more of the pure rushing volume on top
22:44of it. But overall, the point is that these Broncos running backs struggle to be successful, even when one guy owns all of the rushing, another guy owns the
22:55majority of the receiving. What has to happen is one guy through injury owning all of it to like be a true difference
23:02maker like R.J. Harvey was for like the first or the the section of six to seven weeks halfway through last year just in
23:08terms of fantasy points overall.
23:09>> Um and I think it's going to be impossible with how things are stacked right now in this running back room for
23:15one guy to come out like a huge winner and like someone that you need at the end of it.
23:20>> Yeah, I haven't drafted Harvey or Coleman for the reasons that you're outlining that. I just think this is going to be stuck into a committee
23:26approach. Uh and then we don't know for sure that JK Dobbins is going to miss a huge chunk of the season. Like we think
23:31it's it's definitely possible. We don't know that for sure. In the games with Dobbins healthy, RJ Harvey was the RB 36
23:37on RB54 usage. So, that was as efficient as you can possibly go. We talked about some of the wheel routes and
23:43manufactured touches like that they would do right around like the red zone line. Um, and those would work. We saw that in the preseason. Uh, could he be
23:50the RB 40 um even with JK Dobbins? I think that's possible, but you're paying him a price tag ahead of that and I'm
23:56just not convinced that the Broncos would use him between the tackles. One stat that I came across, NextGen stats had him with the second highest time
24:04spent behind the line of scrimmage only behind Kenneth Walker. The difference between Kenneth Walker and R.J. Harvey is the Broncos offensive line was
24:12universally ranked inside the top three uh and oftentimes the best offensive line last year where the Seahawks were never that good. There was like no
24:18reason for him to be behind the line of scrimmage for as long as he was out there. So, uh he's just a boom bust
24:23style player. I think Shawn Peyton's got a good grasp on how to use him. Uh, but can we break him outside of that mold?
24:29I'm I'm less convinced.
24:31>> I'm not saying R.J. Harvey doesn't have standalone value. Broncos running backs ranked seventh, fourth, and first in receptions at the position over the last
24:38three seasons. Even Harvey had the eighth most receptions among running backs last year. But again, the point is we are looking for backs that jump 10 to
24:4815 to 20 spots versus where you're selecting them at this portion of the draft. And that happened for Harvey last year when JK Dobbins went down because
24:57he got 14 touches in week 11. Then he got 16 touches in week 13. Then he got 23 touches in week 14. And then 19
25:08touches as well, plus another 19 and 16 to close out the season. I just don't envision games this year that R.J.
25:15Harvey touches the ball 14 to 19 times.
25:20Yeah, the the Broncos were flirting with all of the top backs both in the draft and in free agency. And then they did
25:28give JK Dobbins $10 million guaranteed, which is a lot more money than I was expecting. And to me, that was a pretty
25:34clear sign that they view JK Dobbins like the no doubt about it starter there. And then R.J. Harvey would be this very defined role who will be good
25:42at that role. And then in comes Jonah Coleman if something happens to JK Dobbins. Maybe it's my bias, but here we
25:48go in round nine with another pass catching back. Uh, these guys are obviously more impactful for you in full PPR leagues. We have full PPR rankings
25:55down in the description below, but I'm mainly to include everyone here talking about half PPR. Uh, here's an interesting note from Greg Almond, who
26:03has covered the Bucks for a very long time. He said, quote, I don't know if you saw this, Hayden, it wouldn't
26:07surprise me if Kenny Gainwell were to lead this team in receptions this year.
26:12I'll say if if that's the case, the Bucks have real issues in 2026. Kenny Kane eliminated. I mean, what >> leads you in receptions. Um, so while
26:23some people can take that quote as a positive, that gives me some good surges overall of of what they might be looking
26:29like, uh, Gainwell did have eight touchdowns last season. His previous high for a year was six. Um, his rushing attempts, his 114
26:39were a careerhigh last year. And I doubt he's going to get the 73 catches that he got last season associated to Aaron
26:47Rogers where he was truly a pseudo wide receiver on a team that only had one wide receiver talent in DK Metaf and a
26:55quarterback that likes to throw underneath more than almost anyone else.
26:59Conversely, Baker Mayfield likes to hold on to the football, run around like a madman, throw down the field into tight coverage to a group that has Emecha
27:08Igbuka, Chris Godwin, and I guess Ted Herz Hurst on top of it. So again, I think the role that we went from last
27:16year with the Steelers where he was his most impactful ever is just very different this year and more so he's just gonna kind of do like the the
27:24Rashad White thing here.
27:25>> Yeah, I see this one the same exact way.
27:27I haven't drafted him a single time through 158 drafts. Um I think last year was awesome, but it was like like you
27:35said, the environment was perfect for that type of thing to happen. I just don't think that Baker Mayfield wants to play that game. I think that AMCA is too
27:42good. I think that Jaylen McMillan and Chris Godwin are way better than Calvin freaking uh Austin and MVS. Like those are like the other wide receivers that
27:50they were trotting out there for for chunks of the season. So um yeah, I think just totally different uh scenarios. And then, you know, if it's
27:58Sean Tucker or somebody else out there, they could also use a threeback committee approach here. So, I'm fading that line of thinking. And even if it is
28:06true, I'm on your side. That means the Bucks were ter terrible this year.
28:11>> Yeah. And even if Sean Tucker's not a part of this team, which he might not be. Um, I mean, Kenny Gainwell was used
28:17basically like Devon Aan last season.
28:19There was no other player that had as many true downfield routes at running back.
28:23>> Yeah.
28:23>> Than Kenny Gainwell. And as often as that narrative is passed around the league, it just is not a thing, you
28:30know?
28:30>> Right.
28:31>> So, uh, I don't see it. I don't see it.
28:34>> Nope.
28:35>> Okay. Well, we have another part-time running back in round 10. That's Aaron Jones, the ninth pick of the 10th round
28:41in your home leagues right now. I mean, all off season, the Beat Riders have literally said that Aaron Jones falls off a cliff after 150 touches. It's
28:49almost like maybe someone in the organization has mentioned that to them.
28:53uh 150 touches won't do much for you across 17 games. Now, >> it can do something for you in maybe certain peak weeks where he has like 12
29:03to 13 or 14 touches and he has good games there, but what we have seen recently is he starts off hot where he
29:09has these moments and then it kind of trails out and fizzles out as the season goes along. And just overall with the
29:15Vikings, yes, I'm taking way more Jordan Mason than I am Aaron Jones. I think he fits quite nicely in Frank Smith's new
29:20rushing game and he's drawn rave reviews in training camp as well.
29:23>> But I also believe like neither one of these backs might matter in the end, but at the end I just rather take Jordan
29:30Mason who seems to have more red zone upside touchdown scoring upside than Aaron Jones has.
29:35>> Yeah. Five straight seasons with under five rushing touchdowns for Aaron Jones last year. Career low 4.2 yards per carry which is a drop by.3.
29:46Uh yeah, it's just this team is way more pass heavy than people kind of realize.
29:51So from 2022 to 2024, the Vikings were fourth in pass yards and 26 in rush yards per game. That was a top five
29:58neutral pass rate as well. Maybe that kind of closes the gap a little bit. The offensive line is a little bit better
30:03and you do have Kyler Murray out there, but um they pay Jordan Mason real money and he always pops up on the advanced
30:10numbers whenever I'm looking at that type of stuff. I think that Jordan Mason's a totally fine uh between the tackles rusher. riding Aaron Jones going
30:16to catch some passes this year, but I don't think Kyler Murray is like the type of quarterback that's going to be
30:20checking down to his running backs very often. I don't think Aaron Jones is a priority to be manufactured like swing passes to and screens and that type of
30:27stuff when you have Justin Jefferson and my highest drafted wide receiver somehow in Jordan Madison.
30:32>> Um I don't think you've disagreed with one of these yet. That's uh unfortunate.
30:36>> You're cooking. You're cooking.
30:37>> Well, you're not going to disagree with anyone left on this list. Uh >> good.
30:41>> Round 11 is Debo Samuel. He's going into the seventh pick in the 11th round. Why draft an old guy when you could draft a
30:48young guy? You know, after him, Jaylen Coker is still on the board. Rasheed Shahed is on the board. Uh this time
30:56last year, I was actually in on dbo Samuel. I'll kind of count that as a win. I mean, he actually started really
31:01well.
31:02>> Four top 21 weeks in the opening five games, including three top 12 weeks, but obviously the commanders situation fell apart from there. On top of that,
31:13veterans decline as the season goes along and rookies start performing at a higher level. And I don't even think that Deshawn Stribbling is going to need
31:22multiple weeks to get phased into here.
31:24Hayden, I think uh Stribbling is going to straight up play over Debo Samuel uh in two wide receiver sets uh almost
31:32immediately in this offense. So uh I would rather just avoid the wide receiver three on the 49ers this year.
31:38>> Yeah, I see a $3.8 $8 million guaranteed for Debo Samuel, which is like absolutely nothing in the wide receiver markets. Um, so I think he's got a
31:48chance to be out there in two wide receiver sets to start the season as they get Dean Stribbling fully up to
31:53speed, but he's been cooking everybody in practice. And that was the 33rd overall pick that he's competing with.
31:58Um, so yeah, I think it's a very fragile offense. He's a very fragile player. I think that he has some utility early on,
32:03but he's eventually going to be somebody that we're going to be releasing. And I don't think that, you know, in week one
32:08he's gonna be anywhere near my top 36.
32:10So he's like somebody that's gonna like put up some decent points on your bench initially, but not good enough to make
32:15your starting lineup and then you're just like not really feel going to feel comfortable with starting him later in the season.
32:19>> Yeah, he could have some nice weeks early on and then let's get back to me in like week nine, week 10, week 11, all
32:27that type of stuff.
32:28>> 12 is Tyrone Tracy. This one doesn't need that much explaining. Um, >> y >> this just has to update. I mean, Naji
32:35Harris even got some first team reps with the ones last week. We don't have to read into the depth chart changes
32:39where ahead of preseason week one, it was Cam Scaboo and Tyron Tracy, and now it's Cam Scaboo, then Naji Harris, Tyron
32:46Tracy, and Deon Singleary as a running back, too. Um, they might keep four running backs. That's totally fine. But at the same point, it's becoming a
32:56really full room. Like, >> yeah, >> four is a crowd. And, uh, I I I I don't know what someone like Tyron Tracy
33:03brings to the table. So, while it can be difficult for ADPs to fall because people think they are scooping up value
33:09once they see someone with a higher ADP on the board, uh just let Tyron Tracy slide this year.
33:14>> Yep. He's undraftable. I don't even know what round I would draft him in. Uh it sounds like they're going to keep four
33:19running backs. They they did this with uh the Ravens even though they had Derrick Henry and then I think Naji Harris would be the RB2 um over the rest
33:28of those guys. And then I think Tyrone Tracy, Singleary, like we'll see what special teams snaps they're they're gonna come up with to to justify it. Not
33:36a good spot to be in.
33:37>> Kenyan Sadique is going in round 13 of your home leagues. Uh just recently, Frank Reich on Kenyan Sadique missing so
33:43much time this offseason. Yeah, there's no doubt we'll have to scale it back. We just got to work him in slowly. We can't
33:49rush it as much as we would like to. The good thing is he's very smart. We've said it all before. We can we'll be as
33:55ready as you can go. But there's nothing like practice. I know he has stayed locked in. We got to go back out on the
34:01practice field and slowly work him back into the mix.
34:04>> Um, also Mason Taylor apparently has had a really nice camp.
34:08>> He's good.
34:08>> The other part of this is it's interesting when you draft Ken Sadi and Omar Cooper in round one and then it's very apparent on August
34:1926th that you can't get them both on the field at the same time. Like right now this season, it's basically going to be
34:26either Sadi is in the ball game or Omar Cooper is in the ball game in three wide receiver sets and it's not both at the
34:33same time. So I really like Sadi as a prospect. Uh it is just impossible to draft rookies and especially rookie tight ends when they miss all a training
34:43camp. It's that simple.
34:44>> Yeah, I've been drafting him recently in baseball like because he's going way later than the 13th round and just like
34:50seeing what sticks. But your point is so true that it's 12 personnel where he is the slot or it's 11 personnel and Omar
34:58Cooper is the slot and Mason Taylor's going to be annoying not just this year.
35:03I think Mason Taylor is going to be annoying for the Sadique uh drafters for a very long time. I think Mason Taylor
35:08is a really really rockolid inline option who can be a reliable receiver uh and like a decent enough athlete who they drafted in the second round. Like
35:17there's not that many tight ends that go in the second round like Mason Taylor just did. like this is very real
35:22competition. Um, so I think Sadiq will have fun moments that you can ride that in best baseball. Like is there going to
35:28be weeks where like he gets six targets and like the next week we feel comfortable that he's going to get another six targets in a game? Like I
35:33just don't see that happening this year.
35:34>> All right, round 14. We'll close this thing out. Uh, we'll pour one out for Ian Hard's most drafted player and Jerry
35:40Judy. Uh, I understand that Ian did a whole bunch of that during the portion of offseason when rookies weren't on the
35:48field. Uh, but Hayden is quite clear as soon as rookies got on the field that this is the Denzel Boston and most
35:54importantly Casey Conpsion show. So maybe Jared Judy goes somewhere else.
35:57But at the same time, I think his contract is difficult to move. He's getting paid a lot.
36:01that up.
36:02>> And you know, you even have Isaiah Bond flipping in there for um some two wide receiver set stuff. So uh I would expect
36:10very very very little for Jerry Judy as a consistent piece this offseason.
36:14>> Uh I think it's contracts tradeable.
36:16>> Okay. I didn't I didn't I think they can do it. I think that's how we back door into this. Um now guess what?
36:22>> He will be >> he'll be on waiverss and when he does get traded we will talk about him on that show in baseball. I think he's his
36:30ADP is so free. I mean so free for somebody that has a thousand yard season who is 27 years old who has had one of
36:38the most outrageous single game performances you will ever see being literally free in baseball. I'm interested in that. And in reddraft,
36:46he's not going to matter until he gets traded away if that does happen. Uh, but that the Browns are pretty forward.
36:52Like, it sounds crazy, but like they they do like want to offload guys at the right time. We just obviously saw that
36:56with Miles Garrett. I would not be surprised if Jerry Judy is a, you know, chief or something like that. Uh, in the
37:04not too distant future.
37:05>> Um, just looking at round 14 as well, Marshon Lloyd is going there in all these home leagues at this moment. Uh,
37:11change that. Uh Keenan Allen is going there. I would simply rather take Keenan Allen than Jerry Judy straight up.
37:17>> Yes.
37:17>> Um and then like Jaylen Naylor's going.
37:20I am so out on Jaylen Naylor versus where I was earlier this year. I don't think I've heard Jayen Naylor's name one
37:25time reading the reporters from the Raiders camp.
37:28>> No. Yeah. He's like a slot guy, but they want to put Bes in the slot in 11 personnel and then this another one of
37:34these teams where you know Michael Mayer's gonna be the inline guy and Brock Bower is gonna be you know your ex
37:38slot receiver, whatever the hell we're going to call that. And then we'll see if Jaylen Naylor is going to be out
37:42there on the 2X sets. It's Trey Tucker number one.
37:45>> All right, that does it.
37:46>> Great list.
37:47>> Simple enough. I mean, I I I did spend more time on the top names. And again, >> yeah, >> don't write in the headlines that Josh
37:56Norris does not want to draft Christian McCaffrey this year. I just wanted to bring up the negative outcome here as >> well. You draft him or you rank him
38:05lower than where you would draft him.
38:06Well, yeah, but that doesn't mean I'm >> not drafting him.
38:10>> That just that doesn't mean that I think Christian McCaffy is gonna have a bad season. Uh, >> it sounds like just remember I'm the guy
38:17that said draft Christian McCaffy last year and it worked out. That's it.
38:20>> Okay, that's I'm reading this as Josh Norris. Scared to compete. Do not write in the headlines to fade the Christian
38:26McCaffrey. That's how I'm reading this.
38:27>> All right, that does it for us. Um, starting tomorrow on Monday, we have our final rankings and tiers for every
38:35single position ahead of your draft.
38:37It's a big big four shows with running backs and wide receivers and quarterbacks and tight ends. So, I know you love it. I know you watch it. So, go
38:45and watch it for us and hit subscribe.
38:46We'll see you all then.
