Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden

Puka Nua identifies Jordan Love as his favorite 11th-round pick, noting that Love was QB2 in EPA per dropback last season. He argues that if the Packers increase their offensive pace and shift toward a pass-heavy approach, Love has top-12 upside despite his current QB18 ADP.

Puka Nua views a potential Keenan Allen signing as a 'band-aid solution' that would not significantly diminish the outlook for Josh Downs, noting that Allen showed signs of slowing down at the end of last season.

The Colts are actively looking to expand Tyler Warren's role within the offense, which contributed to the team's decision to move on from Michael Pittman Jr.

Josh Downs is positioned for a breakout role following the departure of Michael Pittman Jr. With Alec Pierce potentially starting the season on the PUP list, Downs is expected to see increased snaps in two-wide receiver sets and boundary roles. While Puka Nua expresses skepticism regarding his ability to function as a legitimate WR2 due to a limited sample size of high-leverage routes, he notes that Downs' current ADP (WR41, 113th overall) already accounts for these concerns, making him a viable fantasy starter.

Jaylen Waddle is a key addition to the Broncos' offense, serving as a perfect fit for a team that ranked third in play-action pass frequency last year. Despite a down season, Waddle maintained a 4.0 yards per route run rate on play-action plays. His presence should help diversify the scheme and reduce reliance on repetitive screen and boot-action plays. He has progressed well in training camp despite recovering from a broken ankle.

Bo Nix is a strong value at his current ADP, with the potential to jump from a QB15 projection to a top-eight finish in his third season. He has finished as a top-10 quarterback in back-to-back seasons and benefits from a pass-heavy, high-pace offense. His development is supported by the addition of Jaylen Waddle, which should diversify the Broncos' play-calling beyond screen-heavy tendencies, and his natural progression in Sean Payton's system.

Jakobi Meyers is used as a benchmark for target share comparison alongside Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. within the Jacksonville offense.

Travis Hunter is part of the Jacksonville receiver rotation, specifically tasked with subbing in to run vertical routes. He is expected to play a vertical role in the offense rather than the slot role he occupied previously, which may impact the overall receiver rotation.

Brian Thomas Jr. is expected to handle vertical routes in the Jacksonville offense, contrasting with Parker Washington's slot and intermediate role. While he remains in the mix for significant route participation, his role may be slightly impacted by Washington's high usage, as the team may eventually prioritize extending Washington over Thomas.

Parker Washington is significantly undervalued at his eighth-round (87th overall) ADP, with rankings as high as 54th overall in full PPR. He is projected to be the Jaguars' target leader, operating as a near full-time player in the slot and Z-receiver roles. From Week 7 on last year, he commanded a 21% target share and finished as the PPR WR18 on WR15 usage. He is the highest-ranked Jaguars wide receiver, having led the team in target share last year with 3.17 yards per route run; he plays 63% in the slot in three-receiver sets and moves outside in two-receiver sets.

Rhamondre Stevenson is currently being drafted in the same round as Jaylen Warren, who is going as the RB28.

Rico Dowdle is viewed as a complementary back rather than a primary option, expected to serve in four-minute drill and clock-killing situations. While he has a history with Mike McCarthy, he is a secondary option who may only challenge for goal-line work given Jaylen Warren's historical inefficiency in goal-to-go situations.

Kenneth Gainwell is cited as a historical example of a player who paid off his price tag in a part-time role, similar to the expectations for Jaylen Warren at his current ADP.

Jaylen Warren is projected to handle the first snap of the season and is a candidate to catch 60 passes. He is viewed as a better fit for the McCarthy-Rodgers offensive scheme and more explosive than his backfield competition, making him a viable target at his RB28 ADP. Warren is expected to be the clear pass-catching back over Rico Dowdle and is projected to steal goal-line touches from him.

Trey McBride is used as a historical reference for a tight end who served as the primary read and focal point of an offense, similar to the role envisioned for Kyle Pitts.

Puka Nua expresses significant concern regarding Tua Tagovailoa's performance in 2026, citing an evident decline in his game and stating a reluctance to associate with any players attached to him.

Drake London's absence in previous games served as a proof-of-concept for Kyle Pitts' target volume, as Pitts saw increased production when London was sidelined.

Kyle Pitts is a target in round six, entering his age 25-26 prime. He showed proven upside when Drake London was out, averaging 7 receptions and 84 yards in those five games. Pitts is positioned as a primary pass-catcher in a concentrated Falcons offense alongside London and Bijan Robinson; he is expected to benefit from a shift toward 13 personnel and a healthier physical state, allowing him to run shorter routes like slants and quick outs. Puka Nua projects him to have higher reception upside than Sam LaPorta or Tucker Kraft, specifically targeting an 80-reception season through manufactured touches and high target volume, bolstered by a weak defense that may force high-volume passing situations.

DeAndre Swift is viewed as a high-upside RB2 in the fifth round. After a strong finish to last season where he was the RB9 in points per game from week six onward, he is expected to maintain a 50/50 or 60/40 split, with significant contingent upside if Kyle Manungai misses time.

D'Andre Swift is a high-upside RB2 target in the fifth round, coming off an RB15 finish on RB19 usage. Puka Nua highlights his improved decisiveness and fit in Ben Johnson's scheme. Swift finished as the RB9 in PPG from week six onward last season and is expected to maintain a 50/50 or 60/40 split in a top-10 projected Bears offense. He possesses significant contingent upside if Kyle Manungai misses time, as Roshan Johnson is not expected to inherit the full workload in that scenario.

Cam Akers is currently being drafted in the fourth round on Yahoo, placing him in a similar tier of running back options as Travis Etienne.

Wan'Dale Robinson faces increased target competition as Isaiah Likely has effectively swapped into a primary role within the Giants' passing attack.

Kendre Miller occupied the secondary running back role behind Alvin Kamara last season.

Travis Etienne is a high-priority target in round four, expected to serve as the primary running back after the team invested significant capital in him. He benefits from the best offensive line of his career, including the addition of David Edwards, and Kellen Moore's high-pace offensive scheme. Despite committee usage, he is projected as a fringe RB1 candidate.

Kareem Hunt is referenced as the historical benchmark for the Chiefs' short-yardage and third-down usage, providing context for the team's previous offensive success rate before they struggled to generate explosive plays.

Malik Nabers is a superstar talent ranked just a half-step below Ja'Marr Chase. Currently drafted at the end of the third round on Yahoo, he represents a full round of value and is worth a late second-round pick in full PPR formats. His outlook is significantly improved by better quarterback play from Jackson Dart, a stabilized offensive line, and minimal target competition.

The Giants' offense is currently being run through Isaiah Likely, who benefits from minimal target competition in the team's scheme. He has effectively moved into a primary role within the passing attack.

Hayden Winks ranks Kenneth Walker inside his top 10 overall, placing him alongside CeeDee Lamb. Winks highlights Walker's postseason performance, his role as the clear lead back, and his increased usage in the passing game during training camp. Winks compares Walker's potential in the Chiefs' offense to historical Andy Reid workhorses like Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Brian Westbrook, projecting significant scrimmage yardage. Walker is projected to play over 60% of snaps when healthy, a threshold where he has averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game over his last 26 appearances. He is currently being drafted around pick 16-17, but Winks ranks him as a top-13 player, citing his elite ability to generate yards after contact behind the best offensive line of his career.

Hayden Winks identifies Brock Bowers as a target to monitor in the later rounds of drafts, suggesting that the math of his preferred roster construction often leaves room to acquire him.

Hayden Winks acknowledges Ja'Marr Chase as a legitimate candidate for the fourth overall pick, placing him in the same elite tier as his other top-round targets. Additionally, Chase is used as the gold-standard comparison for Malik Nabers' talent level, with Winks placing Nabers just a half-step below him based on film analysis.

Hayden Winks uses Davante Adams as a benchmark for target share, noting Adams' 27% share compared to Puka Nacua's 17% last season. Winks expresses concern regarding Adams' age, injury history, and the fact that his team was actively exploring trade options, suggesting a decline in his relative value compared to rising stars like Nacua.

Hayden Winks considers Jahmyr Gibbs a viable first-round alternative but prefers drafting Puka Nacua because it allows for a more favorable roster construction. Winks notes that drafting Nacua in the first round leaves him feeling more confident about the running back options available in the second round compared to the roster structure that results from taking Gibbs at 24th or 25th overall.

Hayden Winks identifies Puka Nacua as a top-tier first-round pick, citing his status as the all-time leader in receiving yards per game (95) and his role as the clear target dominator in a high-scoring offense. Winks projects a potential 400-fantasy-point season, noting that increased red zone usage is the final key to unlocking elite production. He compares Nacua favorably to Davante Adams, noting Adams' age and injury history, and emphasizes that Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are building the offense entirely around Nacua. Winks prefers drafting Nacua over Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round to allow for more favorable roster construction in the second round.

The Packers have been one of the most run-heavy teams in neutral situations, utilizing Josh Jacobs as their primary back.

DeVonta Smith is currently dealing with a hamstring issue that has impacted his availability during Eagles training camp.

Kyren Williams is considered a superior draft pick to Jeremiah Love because he plays in an offense projected to score the most points in the NFL and demonstrated significant goal-line usage, ranking fifth in carries inside the 10-yard line last season.

There is a consensus that Breece Hall should be ranked higher than Travis Etienne; the source also prefers Hall over rookie Jeremiah Smith at their current draft costs, citing Hall's proven high-end potential and historical usage as a benchmark for breakout rookie running backs.

The source prefers drafting Malik Nabers over Jeremiah Love, expressing higher confidence in Nabers' fantasy outlook at his current draft position.

The source is cautious about drafting Jeremiah Love at his current ADP, citing his role in a multi-person backfield on the NFL's lowest-projected offense (18.4 points). Love is smaller than teammates Tyler Allgeier and James Conner, which may limit his goal-line work. While ranked as RB16, the source notes his path to success may mirror Breece Hall's rookie season, potentially not materializing until mid-season.

De'Von Achane is working on early downs while Alvin Kamara handles third-down and passing situations; the source notes that most fantasy points for running backs are scored on first and second down, downplaying concerns about his lack of third-down work.