Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden

Trevon Henderson is being added to the drop list this week. He is playing approximately 25% of snaps in a three-person Patriots backfield and is getting squeezed out by Cory Ker, who is seeing significant fourth-quarter snaps in games the Patriots are leading. Henderson's value is now dependent on a big play rather than consistent opportunity.

Fernando Mendoza is worth monitoring as a potential quarterback change looming for the Raiders. While Kirk Cousins is currently the starter, the team is on a four-game losing streak, and the more games they lose, the shorter the timeline becomes for Mendoza to return to the team as a backup or replacement option.

Adonai Mitchell believes the Jaguars are better off with the Josh Cameron and Travis Hunter combination than what Brian Thomas Jr. brings to the table, suggesting a potential shift in target allocation away from Thomas Jr. Trade rumors surrounding Brian Thomas Jr. are relevant context for his fantasy outlook and potential impact on teammate Travis Hunter's snap allocation and target share.

Travis Hunter is rostered in only 9% of Yahoo leagues with a highest offensive snap percentage of 13%; in deep leagues, Adonai Mitchell considers this snap usage enough to add him. Last year before his ACL tear, Hunter had a 14-target game and was transforming into the Jaguars' number-one pass-catching option, showing high upside potential if the team gets him involved. When on the field, there's approximately a 50% chance he's getting the football—elite target efficiency. A Travis Hunter 30% snap rate is very different than another team's 30% snap rate; on 30% snaps, Hunter could equal five or six awesome touches per week, or three to four in a conservative scenario. If Brian Thomas Jr. is traded, Hunter could reach 30% offensive snaps.

JJ McCarthy is QB21 this week. After his bye, he faces the Eagles, Commanders, and Jaguars—not a great stretch of defenses. While the Commanders are a solid spot start, the other weeks coming up are not ideal for fantasy purposes. Adnai Mitchell is not interested in McCarthy as a fantasy asset right now.

Malachi Fields was WR18 this week. Though he's only had two games better than WR72 ranking this season, both were top-24 scoring weeks. JJ McCarthy is hitting tight window targets and Fields is going up to get them; he's a bruiser with strong after-the-catch ability dragging defenders. With McCarthy playing well, Fields has a 23% target share when on the field, which creates a split with Isaiah Likely and could be a thorn in Likely's target share going forward.

Bam Knight played more snaps than Tyler Algier this week. Cardinals coach Mike Lefor views Knight as the primary ball carrier while Algier is the pass catcher. Knight has been the Cardinals' most explosive running back so far this season, though he could lose work when Jeremiah Love returns (no exact timetable yet). In Week 8, Knight faces the Cowboys if Love misses.

With Mike Evans injured and multiple wide receivers down, Christian McCaffrey is expected to see heavy usage and receiving work. However, the 49ers don't want to give him 30 touches per game, as evidenced in week one, which creates opportunities for backup Kaylin Black to see 8–10 touches in certain game environments depending on game flow.

Dylan Samson returned from injury with 4 catches for 37 yards and 6 carries for 45 yards, playing 46% of snaps while Quinchan Judkins played 53%. Samson will strip receiving usage from Judkins and provides dual value: standalone rushing/receiving production and primary running back insurance for the Browns, a combination difficult to find on the waiver wire. He also received designed screens in addition to checkdowns.

Mason Taylor earned tight end one status in week seven with 5 catches, 62 yards, and 2 TDs, including two contested-catch touchdowns against Miami's defensive backs in 11 personnel sets. He will continue as the primary 11 personnel tight end over Kenyan Sadik and remains a viable option even when the Jets deploy three wide receivers (Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper, Adonai Mitchell), scoring both TDs from that alignment in week seven.

Garrett Wilson is one of the three wide receivers on the field in 11 personnel sets alongside Omar Cooper, which impacts tight end usage and role distribution in the Jets offense.

Eagles WR described as having solid touchdown upside compared to similar players due to his play style; characterized as a 'random prayer' type of waiver wire option with limited interest unless DeVonta Smith's injury lingers.

Eagles WR has injury concerns that may linger; there have been non-answers from Nick Sirianni regarding his status, creating uncertainty about his availability and role going forward. If DeVonta Smith's injury does linger along with Dantavian Wixs, the Eagles' receiving corps availability remains unclear.

Titans RB got the start and was discussed over the summer as a potential contributor in the offense; mentioned in context of depth chart competition and role opportunity.

McGawan has the potential to get a lot of carries in this offense despite not being as talented as Jonathan Taylor; ranked as a top waiver wire target with ceiling/long-term bench value, ranked above Jonah Coleman for those needing a body right now.

Colts RB produced season-low expected fantasy points in Week 8; market share of Colts backfield declined significantly with backup Seth McGown receiving 30% of snaps and backfield work. Taylor's market share fell below 81% for only the second time this season (previously Week 4), indicating potential trade rumors and reduced role. Blew two pass protection assignments against Vikings.

Colts backup RB rostered in just 7% of Yahoo Leagues with speculative upside if Jonathan Taylor is traded; played 30-31% of snaps and received 30% of backfield work in Week 8 vs. Minnesota, marking significant opportunity increase. Seventh-round pick, 26-year-old from Kentucky; has pathway to 70% of ball-carrier work if Taylor is dealt. Adnai Mitchell notes 'if a guy goes on to get 70% of the ball carriers work, uh he is rosterable out there no matter what.' Ranked as top waiver wire target with ceiling/long-term bench value, ranked above Jonah Coleman for those needing immediate roster depth; McGown has potential to get a lot of carries in this offense despite not being as talented as Jonathan Taylor.

Saints RB ranked top 30 weekly despite poor rushing performance; Aaron Rodgers had more rushing yards than Kre Miller or Alvin Kamara in the past week on fewer carries, illustrating the Saints backfield's inefficiency and blocking issues.

Harvey is designated as the passing game role back in Denver offense; received only five touches in Week 7 despite scoring a 51-yard touchdown. Has scored touchdowns in each of the last two weeks but touch volume remains limited. Will maintain red zone usage but unlikely to emerge as primary back.

Dobbins received only three carries before Jonah Coleman took over in Week 7, though he scored a touchdown at the goal line. Despite scoring touchdowns in each of the last two weeks alongside RJ Harvey, touches remain limited in the split backfield. Broncos backfield ranked higher than Saints due to team's higher weekly point projections (more than 20 points), but Dobbins' role is clearly secondary to Coleman's.

Rostered in only 35% of Yahoo leagues despite leading Broncos in scrimmage yards, touches, and routes run in Week 7. Coleman received 11 of 14 touches after Dobbins' first three carries in the game. Shawn Payton said post-game 'Got to get him more touches,' signaling intent to increase his role. Coleman is the most likely back to emerge in Denver backfield if condensed to one player; Payton connection suggests upside if he becomes the primary back. Broncos backfield averages 23.7 fantasy points per game, providing floor even in split role. Preferred waiver wire target over Saints running backs despite Saints RBs ranking top 30 weekly due to position scarcity.

Roush has been a liability both as a blocker and as a pass catcher, making him an unlikely beneficiary of Cole Kmet's injury. The Bears are more likely to shift personnel toward 11 personnel rather than rely on Roush as a replacement tight end.

Kmet is out for the season, forcing the Bears to shift personnel usage away from two and three tight end sets. This likely pushes the team toward more 11 personnel (one tight end), which has unclear implications for wide receiver role growth.

Brown should not move anyone's needle as a waiver target; he is explicitly deprioritized in favor of Antonio Williams as the team's downfield receiving option.

Despite Terry McLaurin's injury, Diggs remains capped at around 66% of snaps—the same snap share he had with the New England Patriots. Team views him in three-wide-receiver set molds, so McLaurin's absence does not elevate Diggs to full-time two-receiver status.

Commanders WR led wide receivers in snaps in week 6 and rostered in only 8% of leagues; positioned as sneaky waiver wire pickup with Terry McLaurin out for season. Getting about 20% of targets when on field; on field for 70% of routes in three straight games; team has stated they want to get him more involved. Drafted as slot-focused Tyler Boyd-type but has surprised source with outside ability and speed at NFL level; expected to emerge as team's best downfield presence, especially after bye week and into favorable second-half schedule (Cincinnati, Arizona, Tennessee). Stefon Diggs capped at ~66% snaps (same as Patriots tenure) so won't absorb McLaurin's role; Williams versatile on outside and inside. Adnai Mitchell all-in on Williams rest of season; recommend 20% FAB allocation. Ranked as top remaining receiver on waiver wire (third overall in top-five ranking).

Dolphins QB rostered in just 18% of Yahoo leagues; first week as top-12 QB (QB14 prior to bye). Each game with a rushing score he's been QB14 or better on the season; three bad performances against 49ers, Chiefs, Vikings explain struggles. Already has 220+ rushing yards (40 per game pace) with rushing TD upside adding 10.4 points weekly. Last two weeks averaging 6 carries per game (most in NFL), up from limited early-season rushing volume. Upcoming schedule (Lions, Colts, Bills) favorable for streaming in Superflex.

Dolphins WR with two-game sample showing playmaker production; WR7 week (2 receptions, 70 yards, 2 TDs) in week 8; only 10% rostered in Yahoo leagues. In first game had 7 targets, 5 catches for 94 yards and 2 TDs, which doubled Malik Willis's season passing TD total (4 TDs). Immediately above Chris Bell in route work; primary target alongside Malik Washington with tight ends uninvolved. Described as 'a heck of a talent' who has been quiet due to injury; source bullish since week one and suggests if he had played those three or four weeks, his trajectory would look different, implying strong upside potential. Recommend 20% FAB allocation as second-half breakout candidate with favorable schedule ahead.

Returned to active role after strong first two weeks but significantly behind Omar Cooper Jr. in two-receiver set snaps; depth chart concern resolved as Omar Cooper Jr. remains the preferred option despite veteran's return to the field.

Third consecutive week of strong production (WR6 week: 5 targets, 51 yards, 1 TD) despite low passing volume; 66 yards after catch added to floor; on field for 5 of 7 two-receiver set pass plays; receiving manufactured touches including push pass, screen reception, and backfield alignment for 3-yard TD; balanced floor-and-ceiling profile with easy targets plus big-play upside. Only rostered in 48% of Yahoo leagues. Adnai Mitchell ranks Cooper as the clear number one waiver wire target if still available; recommends spending close to 50% of remaining FAB budget on Cooper given the limited number of high-impact waivers remaining at this point of the season and importance of securing talent heading into fantasy playoffs. Preferred over Mason Taylor in Jets offense for redditch leagues; offers more consistent target volume and yards-after-catch upside compared to touchdown-dependent tight end group.

McGowan received 36% of snaps, 34% of rushing attempts, and played 40% of third-down snaps against the Saints; this represents his highest rush share and snap share of the season. The source speculates the Colts may be testing what their offense looks like with McGowan as the primary ball carrier instead of Jonathan Taylor, suggesting potential increased role going forward.

Jones suffered a left knee injury during the game after getting 3 consecutive carries early; he limped to the sideline and was later reported with a left knee injury and brace. The source suspects this may be the same knee that had an MCL sprain reported previously.

Mason carried the ball 15 times for 68 yards (4.5 yards per carry) in a drive-by-drive rotation with Aaron Jones; showed some errors in pass protection and had 2 targets with zero catches. The source views him as a solid ball carrier but doesn't believe he's developed as a receiver, and plans to continue trusting him as the primary ball carrier for the offense. The source also suggests that if the Vikings offense doesn't improve significantly, only Justin Jefferson and Jordan Mason will remain reliable fantasy options.

Addison received only 3 targets total in the entire game, all concentrated in the first two drives; 2 were screens and 1 was an in-route or crossing route. Despite being on the field with Murray, Jefferson, and Hockenson for the first time with significant passing attempts together (24 total vs. only 9 in prior games), he saw no additional volume after the early drives. The source expresses skepticism about his role fit in this offense.

Jennings caught 2 passes for 34 yards on a well-designed fake screen play that converted to a rail route in the middle of the zone; the source highlights this as one of the Vikings' better play designs in the game.

Jefferson caught only 4 passes for 44 yards in Week 7 against the Saints; the source details multiple instances where Kyler Murray was late or hesitant on throws to Jefferson, including a curl route where Jefferson had space and time but Murray arrived late, and another third-and-16 curl route where Jefferson created separation but Murray hesitated and arrived late. Despite this poor performance, the source suggests that if the Vikings offense doesn't improve significantly, only Jefferson and Jordan Mason will remain reliable fantasy options, implying Jefferson's elite status is secure despite the offense's passing struggles.

Murray completed only 14 of 24 passes for 150 yards and one touchdown; he averaged 39 rushing yards on five carries. The source characterizes his performance as 'volatile,' noting he can have good stretches but also shows inconsistency; his passing offense looked poor throughout the game and is expected to improve in coming weeks. The Cardinals' passing game is disappointing overall, particularly for a mobile quarterback like Murray.

Taylor scored a 38-yard rushing touchdown in the early part of the game against Minnesota; the source notes Bernard Raimon did excellent work getting to the second level, and Taylor then had a tremendous run from there with minimal contact.

Hockenson benefited from a well-designed tight end red zone play call by Kevin O'Connell featuring a split flow look where Hockenson slipped past the offensive line and evaded coverage undetected in a tight area.

Marks played 89% of snaps as the lead back but managed only 66 yards on 19 carries (3.5 yards per carry) and caught one pass for 15 yards; another reception was negated by a holding penalty. Despite high snap participation, his efficiency was poor and red zone touches went to wide receivers, limiting his fantasy upside despite the volume.