Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a top-tier round one target, currently going 8th overall in Yahoo half-point PPR ADP. The case for him is built on his status as the WR4 in points per game after the Lions' play-caller change last season, his streak of 100+ catches in four consecutive years, and his league-leading 34 red zone targets last year. Additionally, the Lions' high-scoring offense, improved offensive line, and the fact that 12 of their 16 games are played indoors bolster his outlook.

Audric Estimé is a late-round running back target currently going in round 15, though his ADP is expected to climb. The source notes positive sentiment following glowing remarks from Davis Webb regarding the rookie's performance after his first preseason game.

Blake Corum is used as a benchmark for late-round running back value, with the source suggesting that players like Jakori Merritt may offer more fantasy points per game if Corum does not secure a starting role.

The source highlights Bo Nix as a player who looks good within a deep quarterback position group for the current fantasy season and notes he is a potential target in the ninth round of home leagues.

Brian Thomas Jr. is currently being drafted back-to-back with Parker Washington on Yahoo, serving as a benchmark for the current fantasy landscape at that ADP.

The source identifies Brock Purdy as a favorite round nine quarterback target, noting his ability to finish as a top-five or six fantasy quarterback. Despite being drafted around QB12, Purdy led the league with a 61% completion rate on throws of 10+ yards and finished as the QB5 in points per game last year despite injuries. His efficiency and role in Kyle Shanahan's system provide significant upside.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. is identified as a high-upside sleeper. He led his backfield in touches and scrimmage yards as a rookie and is expected to benefit from the Commanders' focus on outside zone schemes, where he averaged 7.6 yards per carry. Beat writers report he is improving as a pass-catcher, making him a strong post-hype target.

Christian Watson is a favorite pick for the source, who ranks him 46th overall despite his 58th overall ADP. In 13 career games with at least 75% route share, he averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game (WR6 pace). He is locked into two-WR sets and expected to grow as a go-to player on third downs and outside routes, though the source also mentions a preference for Matthew Golden's current momentum.

The source uses Courtland Sutton as a statistical benchmark for route volume, noting that the Broncos' offense, which ranked fifth in plays per game, provided Sutton with 220 more routes than Jaylen Waddle received last season.

The source suggests D'Andre Swift is an undervalued player who does not receive enough attention as a potential late-round dart throw.

The source identifies Dalton Schultz as a potential streaming tight end option capable of filling in as a starter for fantasy managers for a few weeks.

Deshawn Stribling is a high-priority sleeper target ranked 82nd overall. While his ADP is in the 12th round, the source recommends drafting him in the 9th or 10th round due to rave training camp reviews, consistent usage, and his role in a high-scoring offense alongside Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. He is considered a target once players like Quentin Johnston or Michael Wilson begin coming off the board.

George Kittle is a value target in the eighth round (ADP 78th overall), with the source ranking him as the TE7 despite his current ADP as the TE9. He is highlighted for his 33% team-high endzone target share when playing with Brock Purdy and his elite efficiency, ranking third among tight ends in both yards per route run (2.18) and fantasy points per route run last year.

The source suggests that Isaiah Likely is a better draft value than Joe Burrow in current expert mock draft environments.

The source identifies Jadarian Price as a high-upside rookie running back who is currently undervalued, noting he is being drafted between the fifth and sixth rounds. The source argues that Price could see significant usage due to Zach Charbonnet's recovery from a late-season surgery, expressing skepticism that Charbonnet will return to his previous form. Additionally, the source highlights Price's pass-game usage observed on Hard Knocks, which contrasts with his limited college production, and notes that the new offensive coordinator's scheme—influenced by the Christian McCaffrey offense—prioritizes getting five players out in routes, potentially increasing reception opportunities for Price.

Jakobi Meyers is noted as having been on the field alongside Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. during the period where Washington established his high target share.

The source notes that Jalen Hurts is a target if he falls to the sixth or seventh round in drafts, though generally advises prioritizing flex-eligible positions in the first six rounds.

Jameson Williams is noted as being among the Lions players currently dealing with injury concerns, though no specific details on his status were provided in this segment.

Jared Goff is noted for his consistency, having ranked second in passing yards for three consecutive seasons.

The source identifies Jaylen Waddle as a smash selection in round four with league-winning upside. Despite playing in an offense that was 31st in plays per game last year, he was the WR18 in points per game from weeks 1-16. He is now moving to an offense that ranks fifth in plays per game, which could lead to a significant increase in route volume. He also ranked eighth in first downs per route run last year, a metric the source considers sticky for predicting breakout seasons. Additionally, the source notes Waddle recently burned Patrick Surtain II for a 60-yard touchdown in practice, signaling his readiness.

Jeremiah Love is identified as one of the rookies who has suffered an injury, contributing to the overall lack of hype surrounding the rookie class this year.

The source expresses frustration with expert mock drafts where Joe Burrow is falling to the 10th round, suggesting this valuation is unrealistic compared to home league expectations.

The source mentions Jordan Tyson as one of the rookies who has suffered an injury, contributing to the overall lack of hype surrounding the rookie class this year.

The source highlights a significant ADP discrepancy for Josh Allen, noting he is a second-round pick in home leagues but often falls to the sixth round in expert drafts.

Juwan Johnson is a major value as the TE20 in the 13th round, with the source ranking him as the TE12. He is expected to be a primary pass-catcher for the Saints with Rashid Shaheed sidelined, benefiting from a fast-paced offense and a dome environment. He previously performed as a top-8 tight end in receptions per game from week 10 onwards last season.

Keaton Mitchell is a high-upside 13th-round target who offers standalone value rather than just being a handcuff. He is projected for a consistent package of 5-8 touches per game, with his role compared to the explosive, big-play usage of De'Von Achane in Mike McDaniel's offense. He is already seeing downfield routes in camp and serves as a viable flex option during bye weeks, even if he does not overtake Derrick Henry or Justice Hill.

Kenneth Walker III is a favorite round two pick, ranked 13th overall despite a consensus ADP of 21st. He addresses the Seahawks' lack of explosive plays, ranking 6th in both 15+ yard rushes and avoided tackle rate on early downs last year. He is expected to play a high volume of snaps, with the source noting he averages 17.5 points in games where he reaches a 60% snap share. The source projects he will hit that 60% threshold consistently this season while benefiting from an improved offensive line and potential screen game usage. The team's backfield usage is expected to be less rigid than last year's split with Zach Charbonnet.

The source advocates for drafting Luther Burden in the fifth round, rejecting the narrative that he is being drafted at his ceiling. The source argues that if Burden emerges as the primary pass catcher for the Chicago Bears, he has the potential to significantly outperform his current draft position as a mid-range wide receiver, easily exceeding a WR24 finish.

Malik Heath is highlighted as a player to target due to the consolidation of routes in the Packers' offense; he played eight of nine snaps in the first preseason game and is expected to benefit from increased route participation.

Malik Nabers is a third-round target, ranked 22nd overall, higher than his consensus rank of 28th. His production is expected to be funneled through the Giants' heavy personnel sets, similar to how Jackson Smith-Njigba saw production spikes in heavy looks last year. Despite minor injury concerns regarding full-contact drills, he is on track for Week 1 and viewed as a potential round one/two value by season's end.

The source expresses a strong preference for drafting Malik Willis in the 11th round as a late-round target.

The source highly recommends Matthew Golden as a late-round target, citing strong training camp reports, his status as a full-time player, and elite athleticism (4.29 40-yard dash). Golden is expected to benefit from the Packers' shift toward more routes, drop-backs, and increased snap counts as the team moves away from their previous wide receiver rotation. The source notes they would draft Golden ahead of Christian Watson.

The source uses Michael Wilson's ADP as a trigger point to queue and draft Deshawn Stribling, placing them in a similar tier of receiver prospects.

The source reports that Najee Harris is not yet participating in full-contact drills, but team reporters are monitoring his progress as he is slowly ramped up with new drills each week; the expectation remains that he will be ready for Week 1.

Parker Washington is a high-upside target with an ADP of 78th overall, though the source ranks him 55th. When on the field with other receivers last year, he led the team with a 31% target share and 3.17 yards per route run. He plays roughly 63% of his snaps in the slot, fitting the intermediate role favored by offensive coordinator Liam Cohen.

The source lists Patrick Mahomes as a potential quarterback target available in the ninth round of home leagues.

The source uses Quentin Johnston's ADP as a trigger point to queue and draft Deshawn Stribling, placing them in a similar tier of receiver prospects.

Sam LaPorta is dealing with a hip injury that could potentially linger into the season. While the source notes that fantasy football physios suggest it is likely a contusion rather than a pull, the injury status is being monitored closely for his availability in upcoming preseason weeks.

Saquon Barkley's ADP has risen significantly to 11th overall on Yahoo, a move the source attributes to their own successful analysis and promotion of the player earlier in the draft season.

The source indicates a preference for drafting Travis Hunter over Joe Burrow, highlighting the extreme nature of current expert draft valuations.

The source expresses significant doubt regarding Zach Charbonnet's ability to return to his previous form following a surgery that occurred on February 20th. The source argues that the Seahawks' backfield usage will likely be less rigid than last year, when Charbonnet stole 65% of the team's carries inside the 10-yard line, and suggests that Jadarian Price could see massive games while Charbonnet is sidelined or recovering.