The 16 Fantasy Picks To Avoid Before the 10th Round

Alec Pierce is identified as one of the wide receivers currently being drafted in round seven on Yahoo.

The source categorizes Blake Corum as a late-round contingent-based running back alternative to higher-drafted players.

The source expresses a preference for investing in the New York Jets' offense, specifically highlighting Breece Hall as a target over players on the Arizona Cardinals.

Brian Thomas Jr. is identified as one of the wide receivers currently being drafted in round seven on Yahoo.

Bucky Irving is a fade at his fifth-round ADP. He ranked 65th in rush yards over expected and 64th in EPA per carry last year. Concerns include his 195-pound frame, injury history, and competition for goal-line work from Sean Tucker and Rachaad White. He is also being squeezed for playing time by Kenneth Gainwell, and the team's projected scoring has dropped significantly.

Hayden Winks suggests pairing Chase Brown with Derrick Henry at the end of the first round as a unique alternative to drafting James Cook.

Chris Godwin should be faded due to his decline into a 'slot-only' role and poor efficiency metrics, including a 6th percentile rating against zone and 16th percentile against man coverage per Reception Perception. Concerns regarding his age (30), injury history (ankle, ACL, and lingering turf toe), and inconsistent hands make him a difficult player to trust, with Emeka Egbuka potentially supplanting him.

The source highlights Chuba Hubbard's strong 2024 performance, noting he was the RB12, had RB7 usage, and ranked RB4 in rush yards over expected. The source believes the bar to surpass him in the Panthers' backfield is higher than commonly perceived.

D'Andre Swift is identified as a superior draft pick in round four compared to selecting a quarterback like Joe Burrow, who is labeled a 'statue quarterback'.

David Montgomery is a 'dead zone' profile to avoid in the fifth round. He is coming off his worst season in missed tackles per touch rate, and the Texans' offensive line is in flux with injuries and unproven starters. Additionally, long-term wear and tear concerns as a bellcow back and the emergence of Woody Marks threaten his volume, potentially shifting the backfield to a 60/40 or 55/45 split.

Hayden Winks prefers drafting Devon Achane alongside Kenneth Walker III at the end of the first round as a unique roster construction alternative to drafting James Cook.

Hayden Winks suggests pairing Derrick Henry with Chase Brown at the end of the first round as a unique alternative to drafting James Cook.

DK Metcalf is identified as one of the wide receivers currently being drafted in round seven on Yahoo.

The source projects Emeka Egbuka to emerge as the primary underneath and middle-of-the-field target for his team, effectively transitioning into the role previously held by Chris Godwin. The source identifies Egbuka as a preferred target over Chris Godwin, noting that Egbuka can replicate much of what prime Chris Godwin offered, and has been loading up on him in drafts despite a potential toe injury concern.

The source expresses a preference for investing in the New York Jets' offense, specifically highlighting Garrett Wilson as a target over players on the Arizona Cardinals.

The source fades George Kittle in round eight, citing his age (almost 33) and recovery from Achilles surgery on January 14th; expectations are for him to be eased into the season and potentially not a full-time player in week two. Despite these concerns, the source acknowledges his historical consistency as a top-five tight end in points per game for eight consecutive seasons.

Drafting Joe Burrow in the fifth round is only considered a viable strategy if the manager already has Ja'Marr Chase on their roster, specifically in half-PPR formats.

The source identifies Jahmyr Gibbs as a fade at his current ADP, where he is being selected as the RB7 to RB9 (15th overall at worst). Given he finished as the RB17 last year, the source argues that expecting a jump to an overall 15th-round pick value is an overreaction to his potential improvement from 'awful to average'. The source further notes that Gibbs remains a 'terrifying' pick at the top of drafts.

Hayden Winks is fading James Cook in the first round; while Cook was the RB6 per game last year, his 16 half-PPR points per game trailed the top five RBs by two to five points. Winks argues Cook lacks the target volume to compete with elite RBs like Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs, and doubts his receiving role will expand given the health of Dalton Kincaid and the addition of Keon Coleman. The source prefers drafting Justin Jefferson over Cook, though notes taking two RBs at the turn is a viable alternative.

Jaylen Warren is noted as a round seven pick on Yahoo, with the source suggesting drafters must get past him to reach other targets like Parker Washington.

The source labels Joe Burrow a 'statue quarterback' and advises against drafting him in round four, preferring to wait for later rounds to select quarterbacks. While acknowledging he has been a top-five fantasy quarterback since 2022, the source notes the top 20 quarterbacks are separated by only 3.5 points, making it more valuable to invest in other positions early. Drafting him in the fifth round is only considered viable if the manager already has Ja'Marr Chase in half-PPR formats.

The source advises against drafting Jonathan Brooks in rounds six or seven, citing his history of multiple ACL tears, lack of NFL experience, and the uncertainty of the Panthers' backfield committee.

The source prefers drafting Jordan Addison over Chris Godwin when both are available in the same range.

Jordan Tyson is identified as one of the wide receivers currently being drafted in round seven on Yahoo.

The source fades Josh Allen in the second round on Yahoo due to pricing, preferring to draft him at the round three-four turn based on his historical fantasy points over replacement. While acknowledging his status as a fantasy rock star over the last four seasons, the source notes he has historically finished between 18th and 30th overall in half-PPR scoring, making a second-round pick risky. Additionally, the source notes that some critics label Brian Daboll as a 'Josh Allen merchant,' implying his coaching reputation is heavily tied to the quarterback's performance.

The source prefers drafting Josh Downs over Chris Godwin when both are available in the same range.

Hayden Winks has moved Justin Jefferson down to 15th or 16th overall, preferring to draft running backs at the turn. Winks expresses concern regarding the uncertainty of the Vikings' quarterback situation, noting that the lack of a clear, dominant starter has him spooked about how the offense will play out. Previously, the source noted Jefferson was WR3 in points per game with Sam Darnold and WR5 with Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullens, while maintaining high target and air yard shares.

Kenneth Gainwell is viewed as a 'pro's pro' and a pass-catching threat who is squeezing Bucky Irving for playing time through the air, backed by a two-year, $14 million contract.

Hayden Winks prefers drafting Kenneth Walker III alongside Devon Achane at the end of the first round as a unique roster construction alternative to drafting James Cook.

The source identifies Kyle Monangai as a late-round contingent-based running back alternative.

Kyler Murray is the source's most drafted quarterback. While Hayden Winks notes the offense will be significantly better than the previous year's performance, he expresses slight concern that Murray did not run away with the job early on.

The source identifies Kyren Williams as a preferred running back target in the draft, favoring him over other players going in the same range.

The source is avoiding Malik Nabers in drafts, citing concerns about the Giants' offensive line, quarterback play, and the team's 30th-ranked scoring offense; notes he is not at the elite prospect level of Ja'Marr Chase.

The source identifies Malik Washington as a late-round contingent-based running back alternative.

The source prefers drafting Matthew Golden over Chris Godwin when both are available in the same range.

The source notes that Michael Wilson's high route volume last season was largely a product of the Cardinals playing in 'garbage time' throughout the year, which the source does not expect to repeat at the same level.

The source questions the value of wide receivers being drafted in round seven, specifically mentioning Parker Washington as a player whose ADP is being debated.

Drafting Patrick Mahomes at his current ADP is discouraged, as his career-high rushing production from last year is expected to decline due to injury history and the team's shift toward a more run-heavy approach with a reliable backfield.

Puka Nacua is grouped with other top-tier players that cause concern regarding early-round draft strategy.

The source advises against drafting Rashee Rice, citing his recovery from a knee cleanup procedure and off-field issues. The source notes that Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor believes 900 yards is an optimistic projection, and suggests that changes to the Chiefs' offense under Patrick Mahomes may diminish Rice's specific YAC-heavy role.

The source highlights Rhamondre Stevenson as an underrated asset who dominated goal-line work (12-to-4 carry split) and pass-protection duties over Tyjae Spears; also cites NextGen Stats ranking him with the best rush yards over expected in the NFL last year.

Rico Dowdle is mentioned as a player who had a productive stretch in the middle of the season, though the source notes he is a 1% player in their current draft strategy.

The source identifies Tank Bigsby as a late-round contingent-based running back alternative.

The source identifies Travis Etienne as a preferred running back target in the draft, favoring him over other players going in the same range.

Travis Kelce serves as the benchmark for target consistency at the tight end position, with the source noting his historical ability to reliably command nine targets per game.

The source advises caution drafting Trey McBride in the early third round, noting that while he was an exception last year, new variables make a repeat performance uncertain. The source prefers taking swings on running backs like Trey Benson or wide receivers like Nico Collins in that range, citing concerns about a more balanced Cardinals offense and the team's low projected points per game.

The source views Tyjae Spears as a contingent-based bet who lacks the goal-line and pass-protection role held by Rhamondre Stevenson; notes Spears averaged only 3.4 half-PPR points per game in the playoffs compared to Stevenson's 11.6.

Woody Marks is showing improvement as a rusher in his second season. He has demonstrated the ability to catch passes and pass protect, and he is making noise in training camp, which could lead to a significant role in the Texans' backfield, potentially creating a 60/40 or 62/38 split with David Montgomery.