0:00Over the years, you've heard me say that fantasy football is pretty simple. You just draft good players on good teams.
0:05And that makes sense. You know, when you zoom out, often the best players are on the best teams because they score the
0:11most points. But one key is correctly predicting which offenses are underprotected by the markets and will outscore that expectation. And conversely, which offenses are
0:22overprotected so those landmines can be avoided. and the perfect man for that show today to help us guide through all the coaching landscapes and how these
0:32teams are stacked up. It is Nate Ty, our co-orker here, Football 301 and Yahoo.
0:38Nate, it's August. How you feeling? I >> I'm feeling great. I I'm I'm geared up finally. We actually have some practice
0:43clips to overanalyze.
0:45Uh not I'm not doing so much of as like a full-on breakdown of QB footwork yet, but I I am analyzing some other things,
0:51but no, great to see you guys. You said guiding and also congratulations.
0:56Welcome aboard. Hello teammates. Is you say guiding. I feel like stumbling as I am through this intro is more maybe a
1:02more word, but still August. We'll we'll straighten out by September.
1:06>> I like how you said overanalyzing the practice clips. Like to me, I feel like I'm kind of staying, you know, I'm
1:11letting the training camp come to me over the next couple weeks before I start analyzing the stuff too much. And Josh, quickly on your point, uh teams
1:18over projecting and under projecting. My takeway just looking at the implied points real quick. Yeah. The highest team is at 26.6 projected points. The
1:25lowest team's at 18.4. I can guarantee the number one offense this year is way over 26 and a half points. And the worst
1:32team especially is not going to be at 18.4. So you can kind of take each polar opposites and go even further uh away
1:39than they're currently projected. Yeah, I think last year if I have this after week 17 the the Rams scored and they
1:46were number one in scoring last year at 30 points per game and then the Las Vegas Raiders were down at 14 points per
1:52game. So that really shows you the massive two touchdown difference between these two squads. Yep. All right, let's dive into this. Hayden, before we get
2:00into this, we we always, >> you know, bring up projected points.
2:04Where do these projected points come from?
2:05>> It's just the the betting markets you look at every single week. you take the averages. So from week one all the way
2:10to week week 18 there's look look aheadline you're just taking the averages from that uh and that's where we have these teams one through 32 and
2:17then you'll see the ADPs over on Yahoo based off of the current depth charts that we're talking about. The idea is
2:23all right you can see where the ADPs are how close are they lining up to the actual projected points. It doesn't have
2:28to be one to one all the way through.
2:29some players just have a huge role, but there are some times where it just like doesn't make sense that that guy's being
2:36drafted either too high or too low. So, all this show is just kind of tying all that stuff together.
2:41>> Yeah, you nailed it. We're going to kind of talk in maybe tiers or groupings of these teams. And Nate, I really wanted
2:47to kick off with the running backs here.
2:49Uh, among all the teams in the top 10, so I'll just list this out for the listeners out there. The Rams are number
2:55one, the Bills two, then Detroit, then the Bengals, then the Ravens, then the Cowboys, then the 49ers, the Packers, Seattle, and Chicago. So, we know a
3:05bunch of those teams have prime time backs associated with him. Jir Gibbs, James Cook, Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, Chris McCaffrey. I mean, all these guys
3:15are drafted in the top 18 overall. But the one that stands out to me in that top 10 in projected points, Judarian
3:21Price and this Seattle backfield. What is your take? What is your read on what Seattle's backfield is going to look like this year? Because Nate, dare I say
3:30how confusing it was last year, uh, with neither one of the runners probably playing in week one, it kind of makes it
3:38even more confusing heading into 2026.
3:40And what makes it even more frustrating is that because the other guy George Helani that might be kind of the stop
3:46gap until Zach Charbanet comes back.
3:48There's certain roles I truly have no like as far as I want when I say certain roles like pass protection. Yes.
3:55Uh screens like just these types of mini roles that usually mean can indicate a bigger role coming down the road. I'm
4:04projecting off of that. Maybe just glimpses. I actually like George Hani when I saw him pre-season last year and then I know he had to play a little bit
4:11at the end of the year after Charmin got hurt but then they were like hey Walker yeah you're several tiers better but I
4:17think they're waiting for Price no matter what is going to have a big chunk of this backfield that's why he's drafted round one. I think all the stuff
4:23that early on about like oh you know the classic depth chart stuff is oh he's this he's that he's not running back one
4:29yet. He's it's going to be his backfield, but I think when Charbanet comes back, it's going to be another frustrating, you know, this might be the
4:36second half of the year, which is not ideal, unless price just goes bananas.
4:40But I do think it's just going to be that 6040, you know, or a maybe a 603010 with Helani, you know, just kind of how
4:48it ended up being because that is what this offense is kind of based off of.
4:52That's what they're trying to go for.
4:53They don't probably consider Price a CMC worthy type of running back. Yeah. So, it's back to that. This is a Shanahan
4:59offense. This is the frustration of a sh the classic frustration of a Shanahan offense in fantasy is who is the hot
5:05hand. Yes, Price is going to have more opportunities to be that. But Charbanet has kind of those mini roles that like
5:11he's great in protection that helps him carve out a role no matter what on passing downs. So, it's kind of like all
5:16right until I can see Price or Helani in that in the preseason really, then I can kind of maybe lean one way. But, it's
5:22Price is gonna have a chunk, but it's it's just going to be a chunk. I think >> I think he's for sure going to get the
5:26the early down work. He's going to be the gold line guy. It's just the pass down role and I think it's early in the
5:30season and with Sharbon because Helani is going to play I think a lot of the passing down situations. Um unless Price
5:36and this is the hard part with him is he caught 11 11 passes over the last two years.
5:40>> Didn't play in pass protection uh very often either. So like I don't know that he can't do it. He's a little bit
5:46undized for that role, but >> yeah, >> maybe he can do it and if that's the case then he can hit a home run. My
5:51problem with with him though is Kenneth Walker is really good and they just never committed to him because they like Charbanet so much. And I think that Hani
6:00like you're mentioning Nate I think is just good enough where it's probably going to be early down versus past downs and then when Charbanet comes back that
6:08could be even cut this way uh three times and Charban is probably going to come back around Halloween Thanksgiving time. Um so that just makes me a little
6:16bit nervous even though he kind of sticks out like you said Josh. Yeah, there are some vague reports that Charban might return quicker than
6:22expected. I would be hesitant to buy into those at this point just based on when that injury happened. Yet, Nate, t
6:29the season for us to, you know, drastically change rankings based on preseason performances and practice reps and who's the ones and who's the twos. I
6:37actually think in this preseason, Judeian Price can go like one of two directions. He either has his like air abdullah moment where he takes one run
6:4660 yards and then it's like oh this is the guy in Seattle's backfield and the only thing that's standing in his
6:52direction is George Halani. uh we can draft a Darian Price with confidence because he's a top 10 back or this is a
6:59mandate from Mike McDonald which Nate correct me for a moment it kind of seems like it is that he wants somewhat of a
7:05rotation in this backfield and it did matter if that was Clint Kubak this year and I would love any insight that you
7:11have in Brian Flory this year too.
7:13>> I I actually and the thing is too is that last year is gonna give him proof of concept that or it's going to be hey
7:20my theory is proven right. Hey, I split them and then Charban went down, but Walker was fresh for the playoff run. So
7:26now he's just >> nothing's going to change if that is what they're going to buy into. And that's again, that's what I think it is.
7:32Like that's why I brought up the old I when I say Shanahan, I should say Mike Shanahan kind of backfields is that it's
7:37just going to be that split. But I do like Price. Like he was a weird process for me because I really liked him.
7:43Obviously got overdrafted, but that's just what this everybody got overdrafted in this draft class. That's just what this draft class was. Um, but I do think
7:49I like I liked him at everything, but nothing kind of was wowed me. And then he goes to the combine. I thought he
7:54plays and runs in I mean it's in a good way and bad way. Like he's 215 he wasn't 215 and that is why maybe it's just an
8:01aesthetics thing and that's like maybe I haven't been fair to him and that's why I always just like you want to see that
8:06kind of the preseason looks as well.
8:08>> Um, but also just the Seahawks back or run game in general too is that I even last year I think I know they won the
8:16Super Bowl. I know how the the playoffs went. I know some of the performances against the Rams, but overall it wasn't
8:21like a top five run game. It was it was pretty middling and it picked up in the second half of the year. So, that's the
8:27thing, too, is they didn't improve their offensive line. But, I do like their offensive line. I like I think Graable's great. Uh Charles Cross is very good.
8:33Bradford's good when healthy, but I think the I'm sorry, Lucas is good when healthy, but Bradford and Sundell are still kind of eh their center and right
8:41guard. And you asked me about Flurry. I know as much as you do. It's his backfield. His background is like a
8:48petting or a um where it's like hey I he stfansky did he did every type of role and then it was just like boom boom
8:55worked his way up. It's promising that he was tied in with or Kyle Shannan tight ends as well. I think tight end
9:02background is more important than ever if you were not a non-quarterback guy.
9:06Um, so there is some promising stuff, but I think it's going to be a very traditional that type of scheme, which
9:10is going to lift the floor up, but it's going to come down to the designs and really kind of like how the passing game
9:15goes to like lift that ceiling up.
9:17>> I thought I was really surprised when he checked in at the combine at 203. I thought that was going to be 210, 215.
9:22And then he's not that explosive of a runner, but his yards after contact, that type of stuff was like at a really
9:27high level. So kind of a a confusing prospect to me. And obviously when you're committing uh to a first round pick on a player that was in a a
9:35committee role in college, like you're just everything is just projecting for weird flags. It's not green or red. It's like yeah, question mark flags. But um I
9:47was going to say uh too, sorry to cut you off, is like I feel like I have a decent investment in like a couple
9:53Dynasty Leagues with like I that I already had Charbon on and it's like okay and I you know it's a weird first
9:58round of dynasty leagues and rookie drafts as people know but it's like I felt okay taking price there but when I
10:04didn't have any investment in that backfield I stayed away. Like I was like I'd rather shop down one of those receiver aisles or even overdraft a
10:11tight end, something like that as opposed to price. out. Just kind of wanted to throw out my own kind of like
10:16personal experience in these draft processes.
10:18>> Yeah, I I know, you know, viewers and drafters out there can sigh when we say, well, you got to look out for George
10:24Hani when talking about and, you know, battling a a first- round running back.
10:28But it goes back to >> Jarian Price having 19 targets in his three years. And I mean, it's 19 targets and then 39 um charted pass pros this
10:38past season. And you know, some of that charting is they just stand there, don't touch anyone at the same time. So, it's
10:43it's a question that he probably has more reps doing it in practice this year than he ever had in actual games this
10:49past season. So, >> um I'm excited to watch him in the preseason. Hayden, right now he's the third pick, I believe, of the sixth
10:57round.
10:58>> Put your hat on.
10:59>> What do you think his closing ADP is going to be that first week of September? I think it's more likely to
11:05go up a little bit just because it's like I think he can get right next to the basial tune and Trayvon Henderson
11:11kind of committee guys. Um just if he has like that explosive run and I don't think that we're going to see Charban in
11:17in September and I would be even surprised if it's October. His ACL surgery was February 20th like >> Yeah. Yeah. That
11:24>> February 20th. I mean let's be realistic. We're still human beings after all. I know things are getting better here, but um yes, I don't draft
11:31him that much because I usually have like a two or three running backs by the time I get to Jadarian Price. Um but I
11:38think he's fine. I think he's appropriately priced here.
11:41>> Okay, Nate. Uh you have to work through another muddied back field here because the Washington Commanders are projected for the
11:49>> same amount of points as the Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Houston Texans. Uh and we are taking those
11:56running backs much earlier than Bill Crosky Merritt or Rashad White that are going 117 and 119 overall. So what's your read on this backfield?
12:06>> Uh I again it you know what's really funny this backfield first before I even get into it. They like Rashad White they
12:13the uh commanders signed him and also when during the draft process I was like you know Kron Allen you know he's not
12:21doesn't have a lot of burst and it's not the same thing. It's more of an aesthetics thing. He runs a lot like
12:25Rashad White. And it's like they they draft him and I was like, "Oh, you got to be kidding me." And then there's Bill
12:31who's just his own kind of thing. Uh Bill and this is again, God, I sound like an old coach and all this like, you
12:39know, you know, I'm I'm going to be saying this, but it matters. This This where you can find Yeah, I know. This is
12:44where you can find though like uh especially with like blocking tight ends and everything is that Bill's frustrations or maybe where he kind of
12:49lost reps as the season went along is the lack of reliability and some of that protection stuff and some of the in
12:54between downs on top. I mean the Chargers game was wonderful early in the year and I could see why it was so
12:59exciting. Um him bouncing stuff and everything. But you saw some actual negatives in that game too because some of those good runs were him bouncing
13:06stuff not hitting the whole design.
13:08That's why at the end of the season I think they're like Chris Rodriguez whatever just steady Eddie we'll go with you. But why again I'm bringing that up
13:16is usually when I have to if I have to invest in these type of backfields I just go with the guy that I know will
13:22have a role on the field. To me that's Rashad White with pass protection because I'm just like hey I can it's
13:27more of a higher floor than higher ceiling bet. Um, and that's who I, yeah, I've kind of come down to as well as
13:33with this is better on screens as well.
13:36Or I should say better, but he is a very efficient on screens as well. This offense is gonna be more under center.
13:40Rashad White's been a better under center runner than shotgun.
13:44>> Um, yeah, and the stats bear that out.
13:46Last year was about even, but more explosive and actually even a better receiver because of some of the checkdown stuff >> and and Jaden Daniels, I'll see they're
13:55saying they're talking about the under stuff he did at Arizona State. when he was at Arizona State, it was some touchdown to checkdown. So that's where
14:01I think Rashad White's receiving ability and because he'll be on the field in protection on those play actions, he can just have those kind of like like Cam
14:08Scataboo last year, you know, those kind of like cheap cheap explosives, I should call them, like you get first downs on a
14:14little checkdown. It's like nice little yardage. Um, so I just think Rashad's White is easier to project to me and how
14:19I think this offense is going to be more NFL as opposed to Cliff Kingsberry's offense. So that's in the weirdest way.
14:26Rashad White, the former receiver, I actually feel like is the safest bet on this, but I'm not like I do like the
14:32Commander offensive line, too. I actually think it's actually got some decent >> like uh Josh Connelly really came on.
14:38Not pass protection, but run game he did.
14:40>> Um but I do think there's something here with the run with everything, but it's not one I'm like leaping, oh, I have to
14:46get with the commanders backfield right now because >> new O line coach, first time OC, just kind of some in between stuff I'm not
14:52really buying into yet. Yeah, this is it's the Vikings and the Commanders.
14:56These are by far the two cheapest backfields. Um, and I'm with you, Nate.
15:00I I just want Rashad White because I think that he's getting a little bit more powerful as a rusher. I think the
15:04first couple years like there was just like some reps he's just not running with with enough pop. I think he's gotten a little bit better. It was only
15:10a $2 million contract one year, which is like so so low. But, um, we've seen like Javvante Williams kind of like on a pro
15:18deal like that and and was able to hit home. So, I'm on Rashad White. Make Jaka Corory Kroski merit uh prove that he can
15:24like really rip off explosives in a way that Rashad White can't. Um, but I think in the meantime, you know, keep Jaden
15:30Daniels protected is probably very high on their uh priority list. And I think I do think that Rashad White at the goal
15:37line, he's big enough among the pass catchers to handle both roles. That's what we want in fantasy. So, I have it
15:42like a tier or two ahead Rashad White over uh Bill. And I like Kron Allen in like the 18th round. I'm kind of on the
15:48opposite end of this and I can be totally wrong and any of us can be wrong in this and it doesn't tank our fantasy
15:53season. You know, these are 10th round picks we're talking about here, but you know, Bill's going later this year than he did last year when became a bit of a
16:01meme. And and you know this, Nate, where there are an infinite amount of underlying metrics that you can just pick out your best ones because there
16:08are some really good ones no matter who you're talking about. Here's the best one for Bill. Uh that per fantasy points, the Commanders were best in the
16:16NFL in outside zone last year at 6.1 yards per carry. And Bill led the NFL probably because of that Chargers game
16:23uh in yards per carry on outside zone at 7.6. And I think Josh Connorly, who you mentioned before, has talked about this
16:29offseason, they really want to lean into that outside zone stuff. I'm also of the opinion, and it's hilarious that, you know, Aaron Jones in the middle of these
16:36two, that just because this team might score points, they're projected for a good amount of points, it actually might be somewhat similar to like the
16:43Minnesota Vikings backfield, that it really doesn't matter in the end that there's like not a singular player that comes out of it as really fantasy
16:49relevant for Yeah, I I don't know who I'd want in the Camaro's offense to buy into because it's even the one guy that
16:55I like buy low as a tight end is Cha Quano because I did think that there's some he could be a nice cheapy buy, but
17:01it's just the everything else I'm just really in a real football sense and fantasy sense kind of squinting at. It's like it's TBD for me. Like it's like all
17:09right, this might I see the theory of it all, but I kind of want to see it play out just a little bit and and see a
17:17month of it. And I know that's not useful to anyone in fantasy drafts, but that's just kind of like I'm tempering
17:22everything. But that's why it's like, okay, at certain prices, Rashad White, at certain prices, Terry, just because who else? um at certain prices, you
17:29know, on Tim Williams like real real real late, you know, just like those are what certain it's certain prices as opposed to I gotta go get that guy
17:36because even Jane Daniel's rushing ability only goes so far because of his health. Like that's the and that's another scary part.
17:41>> Commanders need a digs, you know, on if they get digs there, then everything kind of feels a little bit better. But
17:45if if they don't get that, then I do think that checkown thing to Rashad White, like Nate was outlining, I do
17:50think there could be more receptions in this back field than typical for a dual threat quarterback. just looking around uh the the depth chart.
17:57>> Nate, just quickly, do you think David Blau's going to pluck from his time playing for Ben Johnson? Like, what do
18:03you think the foundation of David Blau's offense is going to be? Because he was on the staff last year under Cliff
18:08Kingsberry and >> as you said, every word that has been written or spoken about the commanders is how different and how much more
18:14traditional stuff it's going to look like this year.
18:16>> And I I think that's on purpose. I think that's just what they I think that's their way of also kind of like the
18:22Eagles too that of privately, I don't want to say privately, maybe publicly insulating Jane Daniels as well. Like, hey, at least this gives us a part of
18:31our offense. We don't want to totally neuter what Jaden's really good at, but it's a way to kind of just go like, all
18:37right, a quarter of this offense can be this package or this idea of philosophy.
18:42So, I think that's just the way of what they're trying to get to is at least build a package or at least a part of
18:46the menu that can get to that. um that it could be and I think J Jane did it at Arizona State um like where he was under
18:52center and did those things and so that's why I'm actually like not totally opposed to this um but the thing about
18:58him is just he has to change his entire play style of he can't be scramble first every single time like now it's already
19:04we have a year of him just getting beat to shreds um as he tried to he just has to change that but he when he's on the
19:10field he is dynamic but I do think Blau is trying to be more of that traditional offense or traditional NFL offense I
19:17think it's going to be a the hybrid though and they will use still some still use some tempo. They have a new O
19:21line coach and that's where and he I think he's a firsttime guy >> and that's where actually I'm squinting too because I kind of shy away from that
19:30um when it's a guy that's never done it before as kind of like all right do I really want to bet into this? Um and I
19:37could be wrong. Yeah, because he was the assistant O line coach there previously and he was a college guy before that. So
19:43that's that also usually it's not getting me, you know, head over heels about an offense.
19:47>> We've done the show previously and I actually went back and watched last year's version of this episode and we reworked it a little bit this year. But
19:54something that we previously talked about was teams that, you know, were most underperforming base in their projected team total. And almost every
20:04single time the ones that performed under expectation, it was because of offensive line. either they all got injured or their offensive line was less
20:12talented and they all got like a massive injection of new players or new talent or new coach onto it too. So, I'm not
20:19saying that's what happening here with the commanders, but so often we should link these running backs to their offensive lines and just the overall
20:25success of the team.
20:26>> Well, Josh, do I think you sent a note that one of the teams that was projected pretty poorly that finished high was was
20:31it the Cowboys was one of them? And I think that was one where it's it's okay, Javvante Williams only has to be so good
20:36because the infrastructure, the coaching infrastructure is so good. It's the quarterback. They obviously have two weapons to throw to, but we knew that
20:43the just going back from the Cardinals is how interesting those run games were that the Cowboys were going to be in in
20:48good shape. And I think like the O line coach run game stuff I do think really elevates and kind of breaks ties uh and
20:55especially on these kind of like muddy back fields.
20:57>> We we can go straight into that then.
20:58Um, so the offenses that really worked out last year and the running backs that really worked out and and performed above where they were drafted, uh, I
21:07wrote down four of them, so stick with me here. Uh, James Cook was drafted as the running back 14, 33rd overall this
21:13time last year. He finished as the running back six. Uh, Buffalo was projected for the most points, finished sixth in points. Hayden, I don't know
21:20how we allowed James Cook to be the 33rd over. It was the hold out.
21:24>> I think it was the hold out in August.
21:26Makes sense. Uh, and you just mentioned Javvante Williams. This one about that.
21:30>> He was drafted as running back 38. He finished as running back 12 in points per game. Somehow at this point last
21:35year, Nate, the Cowboys were projected for the 21st most points. What >> and they finished with the fourth most points. Does that makes no sense to me
21:43looking back on this?
21:44>> I I agree cuz I like I it was one of those two where I talked about in such a real football sense. I was like, "Oh, I
21:50really like Clayton Adams. I really like all this." And in fantasy, I bought none of Javvante Williams even though I could
21:54have had him so cheap and every so washed the year before he was >> cuz that was that's it. I was like dead.
22:00>> Yeah, that's exactly what I thought and said, "No, he has a contract extension."
22:04Um, so like that I know, but that's the one of those where I was like my real football takes were better than my
22:08fantasy execution. You know, my my my handicapping was better than my bets.
22:12So, um, no, I know that but that speaking what Aiden said, that's a great example uh of where you can find some
22:19cheap values or nice values just because the old line coach is under underrated or the old line is underrated. I even
22:25think at this point last year we were uncertain of what Brian Shottenheim was going to bring to the table uh versus
22:31you know Mike McCarthy and all the success that they had that uh you know >> Shotti stepped in and did a really good
22:37job and they carried on scoring a whole bunch of points. Okay, Travis Han was drafted running back 33. He finished as
22:43running back 13 and >> structurally the Jaguars were projected for the 19th most points and they finished ninth in scoring. Uh and then
22:51finally, Raandre Stevenson was drafted as running back 39, finished as running back 21 in points per game. The Patriots were actually projected for the 23rd
22:59most points. Uh and they finished fifth.
23:02So Nate, I guess this brings me, and we'll just package this into this portion of the show. Looking 1 through 32, are there any offenses you see, and
23:12it can be at the bottom, it can be in the middle, >> yeah, >> that are severely underpriced, underproed right now? I I I mean I know
23:20there we already just talked about but yeah the Cowboys at sixth. I have them at one but my own private rankings but I
23:27mean I can go more into them. I I just think they're deep uh uh at receiver.
23:31They have three receivers that I I rank really highly. They have synergy and skills. I'm including Ryan Floreno in this. If he's still a waiver
23:38>> on the waiverss and dynasty leagues, please add him like I did a year ago.
23:42Um, and then uh, but also I I like it's just, you know, there's a lot of talk about multi-tight end looks and
23:47everything, but I think there is something to be said that the Cowboys have multiple personnel groupings where I think they have the best 11 personnel.
23:54You got the Bengals have better probably top two, but as far if you're including all three, but then including Jake Ferguson with that, including if they go
24:0112 personnel, I like uh, Brevin Span forward as a blocker. Um, they have a great tight end or I'm sorry, fullback
24:07and Lepki or Lipkkey. um where why I'm bringing that all up is that you don't know when you have to go into eye
24:13formation. You don't know when you have to go two tight ends, but the fact that it's all good is really usually
24:19indicating good team success. And I mean that just says the entire offense and just really I think the defense might be
24:24average, which that's a further discussion. Uh but I I think I'm really all in on them. I I really think they
24:30can go bonkers this year. Well, you mentioned Brian Shot and Harmer surprise. A year ago, we were making fun of him because he was getting like Jerry
24:36Jones was handling the entire introduction press conference and we're all laughing.
24:39>> A 17minute introduction he gave him.
24:42>> Yeah.
24:42>> And and Brian Sher to me has been like on my radar for it feels like 20 years now. And everyone talked about, oh, like
24:49he's going to be a great head coach.
24:50He's going to be a great head coach. I was like, yeah, yeah, whatever. By the time 15 years as an OC, I'm like, okay,
24:54whatever. And then it's like those people are probably right. Like he he he like communicates really well. I think he gets players and you can tell the
25:02players respect him. Like I I don't know. There's just a lot to like and as a play caller, it's kind of a greatest
25:07hits offense. They run everything. I mean, there's everything in this offense. West Coast, old school air corel, like modern kind of just RPO
25:16touches and again, I think that's a good thing. So, yeah, I I I really And Clayton Adams already mentioned him. I
25:22think he's great in the run game and I like the whole line. So, it's Yeah, it's it's something I'm really high on. I
25:27just I'm very excited to watch the Cowboys offense this year. Well, I I want to stay focused on them with Javvante Williams because if you look at
25:33all the teams projected around the Cowboys, their running backs go ninth overall, 1st, 15th, 18th, fifth overall, and then he's at 33rd overall. And if
25:39you look the column next to him, it's Jaden Blue who goes undrafted on Yahoo.
25:44Just like a, you know, a theoretical passcatching guy. We'll see what he's wearing in training camp. Yeah. Like, we'll see about Jaden Blue.
25:50>> Very fast but very small and has fumble issues.
25:53>> Exactly. I don't think he's coming for Javvante Williams job. like maybe he gets involved in some ways, but it's a
25:58totally different skill set from Javante. I asked this because Javante Williams is viewed as a dead zone running back that can get replaced. Is
26:05there anyone behind him that you're worried about? And if the Cowboys are first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth in scoring this year, he just has
26:12to hold the line. And if we get, you know, the RB10 in the middle or or the late in round three or even sometimes
26:20round four, like >> I I'm kind of into Javvante Williams even though everyone's like saying this guy can get replaced. He's not even that
26:27good. To me, it's like who's replacing him and I feel so good about the Cowboys then like I feel like, okay, let's just
26:33keep it going.
26:34>> He's the weak link of their starters. I mean, left tackle maybe, but the left tackle, they actually have a couple
26:39answers there, but um which not a lot of teams have either. Uh uh but they that's put it this way. Every Dynasty League or
26:47every the whole draft process I was like they're gonna take another running back.
26:50They got to take another running back.
26:52They're gonna sign Tyler Algier. They're going to do something like I was so like they're gonna find some buy cheap guy
26:57and I'm gonna all I'm gonna be all in on that guy because I'm not very high on Jvonte Williams but like you mentioned
27:02Hayden. Who else they got? Like Jayon Blue they're trying to make a thing but they hated him last year. Um I think he
27:07was really inconsistent. He's not good in protection. He's really you you want him to be like Achan uh Devon Achan um
27:15where he's undersized but he's actually better between the tackles and blue has a little bit of that. I I like the
27:19little parts of him but it's just like he's so maddening because of the fumbles and all that but then like Phil Mafa
27:27I'm not like super high on I think he's fine but so it's not like Yeah. So that's why Jvonte Williams I do think is
27:32getting underdrafted at this point in time just because of lack of opportunities or lack of people that can take an advantage of an opportunity. I
27:39think, >> hey, and I think for me with Javvante, it's like what is the absolute ceiling here? No doubt you can draft him as
27:44running back 16 and he finishes the running back 10 or the running back eight, but I don't know if I can
27:49envision a world where he finishes as like a top six running back score this year.
27:53>> I will take the RB8 in the middle of the third round every single year and I will let you know my first and second round
27:58picks actually win me in my league. I think it's kind of where I'm at with him.
28:02>> Um, which offense or team do you think is underprotected, Hayden? H the underp projected stuff is is hard because that
28:09entire middle group like to me the Vikings and the Broncos kind of in that tier. Those offenses I think have a lot
28:16more upside. I think I'll take a a a peek at the Broncos in particular. Uh they're at 21st overall. You add Jaylen
28:23Waddle to the mix. They really do not avoid or they avoid like all the negative plays. Like that's the the big
28:29positive part to Bo Nicks. Um sometimes he he doesn't want to throw the ball over the middle and maybe that's you
28:34know a reason why they're not uh having as many turnovers but the offensive line on the interior they got to some backups
28:41because of injuries. Everyone's kind of back when they're all the way healthy.
28:44They might be the best offensive line in the NFL. Shawn Payeyton is amazing and he's really good in pass protection. Uh
28:51and then you add Jaylen Wadd on top of it and you still have Courtland Sutton to do the big boy exceiver stuff. Like
28:57if Bo Knicks could just take a thirdyear leap, which typically we watched the first, second, third year quarterbacks take a lead, like that's one of these
29:05offenses where I do think it's like, oh, Jaylen Wadd was such an upgrade to what they were doing with Troy Franklin and
29:11Marvin Mims and those types that you can like really springboard an offense. So, that would be one. And then the Vikings
29:17just with Kyler, it's like a total wild card. But we've seen this offense uh be fringe top 10 with Sam Darnold and those
29:24types. Kurt Cousins, like if Kyler Murray can go back to being explosive and then but with better infrastructure, he can actually throw the ball over the
29:32middle and play a little bit more in rhythm. That's how that offense can go from from outside the top or right
29:37around top 20 to inside the top 10.
29:39>> Yeah, the Vikings would have been one of mine as well. So if if I had a second team to throw in there.
29:44>> Okay. I mean, we're getting a discount on a Kevin Oonnell offense in a whole bunch of areas where, you know, not too
29:50long ago, his offenses finished ninth and sixth in, excuse me, ninth and eighth in points per game. And uh it's just because, you know, last season they
30:00finished 26th in points per game. That's why the the Broncos one's fascinating to me because I was comparing of where teams finished last year and where
30:07they're projected this year. The Broncos were 14th in points per game after week 17 last year and then they're 21st projected here like you said, despite
30:16adding Jaylen W. Nate, part of me thinks that's because do the markets just believe since that's what we're factoring in here on a per game basis
30:24that the defense is so good that they don't have to score as many points on a weekly basis. So, it's almost like the
30:31defense is hindering what their projected weekly output is. I I think some of it too is just maybe a lack of
30:39uh sex appeal of everybody else and maybe Jaylen W just maybe he doesn't have that national steam that maybe we as nerds do think he does. Um you know
30:48just how it is because if you think Dolphins offense it's Tua and Tyreek Hill I would say to the quote unquote
30:53kind of maybe the masses. Um you know so maybe he just gets lost in the shuffle there as just the guy with the funny
30:59dance. Um but no he did go for a first round pick and then maybe I I I think he does add steam to this offense. I do
31:05think there is some cap to maybe Bon Knicks as a passer um with some of maybe we could project there but and Shawn
31:12Payeyton did give away pass play calling duties which is a one of the most curious.
31:17>> Do you think he gave it away Nate or do you think it was removed from him?
31:20>> He's at gunpoint the new the new coordinator's at gunpoint.
31:24>> Yes. Also I think it's adding a nice little shield in case Boon Knicks doesn't take a step forward. It's gone.
31:29Wow. You know I had a new play caller.
31:31Got it. You know like >> interesting. He's he's pretty he's a pretty savvy guy that Seawn Peyton uh no but I I so that's that's maybe what some
31:39of the cap is actually the guy that's like the most boowo candidate I think on this is Jonah Coleman um because there's
31:44a role for him to to move up he's not the sexiest runner but it's just like there's a role for him you never can bet
31:51on JK Dobbins's health uh to last up a whole year and this is maybe more of a dynasty buy but I could see Jonah
31:57Coleman being that waiver ad you know or that late round dart throw for somebody um just Because my I I just think with
32:04R.J. he could balance R.J. Harvey out, but they always he always wants that Shawn Peyton. He really Sorry, I know I
32:09rant. You You guys make me rant. Sorry.
32:11But they have Shawn Peyton really likes having guys in certain roles. Hey, you are the X receiver running this post, this vertical route. You are the Z
32:22receiver running the over. Like, but you're only in those roles. You are on the field to do this. But same with
32:27running back. He liked the Mark Ingram, Alvin Chimera, and then a sprinkling of one pass catching back. So that's what he's trying to build. So that's why I
32:34think whatever happens with Dobbins, I think Coleman can fill that role. So that's why I have some optimism down the road as far as as a bye bye bye low.
32:42>> I'll speak for myself. I appreciate your ranting. I'm under the weather today, so I'm stumbling over my words. Okay, cool.
32:48>> Appreciate it. Um I'm shocked neither of you said the Chargers. Like I understand that they're >> but >> Yes, I know. I'm all out. I mean, the
32:57Chargers finishing as a top five offense is absolutely in the realm of possibility here. I mean, we just saw a couple years ago,
33:03>> yes, >> with Tua as his quarterback, Mike McDaniel leading an offense that was second in points scored. And there's like a whole bunch of things to talk
33:11about here where I know last year, and let me pull it up, where the Chargers finished 17th, and that was despite
33:18everything >> going into disaster zone in terms of both the tackles. I mean, they there's some unreal numbers here in terms of like what
33:29happened after all of these players went down. Um, here's one. Laki ran a league high 95 pass routes without a pass attempt
33:39coming on the play due to sacks, scrambles, or throwaways. Okay, >> that's a great one. after Joe Alt injury, which we also know they lost
33:48their other tackle prior earlier in the season. Lad then averaged, you know, just 2.7 catches for 38 yards per game.
33:55Uh, and now they're getting a play caller who, you know, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were both top 13 in yards
34:00per route run last year. And that was last year in like the worst version of this Dolphins offense that we've seen.
34:06So the infrastructure, the environment, it's like taking what Mike McDaniel built as like a theory and even in practice for one season it worked so
34:14well in in Miami and now it's like, oh, we're going to give you superpowers to do it all over the place with Justin
34:20Herbert taking the reigns and being able to, you know, connect on every single blade of grass down the field.
34:24>> I had him as my number three offense in my top 10 offenses. I'm I'm very excited. I think Hampton is being
34:32actually slotted a little bit too low because >> I like it.
34:36>> I understand the injury stuff, but it's just even if he's just good, like it's just kind of middle tier projection.
34:42>> Holy crap. Like and they invested so much in Yes. Charlie Kar and and David and Jooku. Okay. Like David Andoku now
34:50is such a better blocker than I think people realize.
34:52>> And now you got two guys that can do that. Then that sets the outside edge which then opens up the whole outside
34:58run game which is what Hampton is best at. Planting his foot and then get going north and getting downhill fast.
35:04>> So >> that's it. That's all it is. Get him momentum and let him roll downhill.
35:10That's that's all this offense is going to be. And then the play action game off of it. Like I think Herbert is I mean
35:16how many tears better than like than Tua?
35:18>> McDaniel said it in the training camp.
35:22He was like, "I'm I've never had a quarterback that could do these things."
35:24Like, he straight up said, it wasn't even prompted. It was just like, I've never seen this before, even going back to the 49ers time.
35:31>> It's just And I'm like, so, and I know I'm sure we're going to talk about it.
35:35It's like, all right, which receiver to buy in? what's the lag going to be and everything like John even I'm not the
35:39biggest guy on Quinton Johnston but I can envision his role >> like he's just going to be a on like just running runway routes in motion
35:47running overs and crossers off play action and it's just going to be big 20 yard chunk plays like so I don't know I
35:54I'm I understand the O line stuff but McDaniels has already shown that he can run a top 10 offense with an offensive
36:00line falling apart. Yeah, the Greg guards don't have to be great in Mike McDaniel's offense. You know, the center was awesome and the exponential growth
36:09going from Bradley Boseman to Tyler Bottish when you know the commanders totally misread the center market. I mean, that is massive and then you have
36:16two awesome tackles if they stay healthy and you just go from there. I I thought back to the Chiefs game when they were
36:23kind of using these condensed splits and they were keeping like Darius Davis and Keane Allen in to block and now you have
36:28those as tight ends and you have you know QJ running love of the game and then you have Lad cutting across on
36:33these overs and it's just that over and over again and Nate you know this that you have individual talent evaluations for all these players and like Amaran
36:42Hampton I might not love him as an individual talent but this fantasy season I'm telling myself don't focus on that focus in on the system that he's in
36:50and how it can accentuate his strengths and he's going to get the first crack at it and unless he totally sucks, he's
36:56going to be like a really good pick this season and you have to draft him highly, but it's I'm just trusting what the
37:01situation is with him.
37:02>> That that's exactly it. It's even I mean, shoot, it's just buying into like I'll give my example that it's like even
37:07last year I was like I like we do quarterback rankings. We do all stuff.
37:12Okay, Brock Pury I think is pretty good.
37:13He's fine. Whatever. I don't like I have him usually like 12th, 13, 14th range.
37:17loved him in fantasy when he was on the field, you know, it was like, "Hey, this is great." You know, it's like, but just
37:22even just like a minor example of that, there's plenty of times and that's like Johnston. I'm not high on him. Like, as
37:28a player, I've never been. I just think he's just kind of a glor I would say gadget guy, but >> very designer play like he's to design
37:35him open and and it is what it is.
37:37That's how some players are.
37:39>> But this offense can design him open and that's why and it has all the other auxiliary parts that make it work. Like
37:46lad is definitely a better player, but it's like wow, this is where the value in fantasy as you guys know. This is
37:51where you find the value. Like yeah, he can be a flex for you that you're so glad you add because you just like took
37:56a shot on him later on than you would think. But yeah, Hampton's the same way.
38:00It's like I don't think he's ever going to be an elite guy, >> but he might put up elite stats this
38:04year.
38:04>> Exactly.
38:05>> With a with an OC that wants to be a head coach again. So yeah, like it's it could be a nice buy.
38:10>> I think even the depth piece, I think Keegan Mitchell can get interesting.
38:12apparently in training camp they're doing some passing uh work with him not protection but like design stuff which would be interesting and then Kamani
38:20Vidal another McDaniel quote was they were asking him about uh both obviously Marian Hampton Keaton Mitchell and unprompted he brought up Kamani Vidol's
38:28pass protection and stuff so like this could be a little bit of a muddy thing.
38:31Um Josh I agree that the Chargers being outside the top 10 makes no sense to me.
38:34I would just straight up swap them with the 49ers at this point.
38:38I mean, let's let's I'll still give Shanahan the benefit of the doubt over Mike McDaniel, but let's say they're like roughly at least a tier or two
38:45apart only. The skill group, the offensive line at this point with what the 49ers dealing with makes me a little bit nervous. Like Mike Evans is
38:53hampered. Ricky Piol is now out for the seasons. Debo Samuels lost a step. Uh Trent Williams has been down a tier from
39:00his peak and then he's obviously older.
39:01The rest of the offensive line's still pretty hit and miss. George KD coming back from injury. like h the 49ers just
39:08seem pretty fragile at seventh overall to me and I I think that the the Chargers upside the Bears like those two
39:14offenses I just feel like the coaching staff's really good. The quarterback play over there is really good and I just feel way better about the offensive
39:21line and skill position guys just being a lot younger, a lot faster. The 49ers are would be like the slowest offense
39:28ever to finish seventh in scoring. Uh we've seen it before but just like at this point it's making me a little bit
39:33nervous. Yeah, it's very uh Wisconsin basketballesque.
39:40>> Bo Ryan. Uh, no, I have I have a lot of concerns about the 49ers. More than I thought I would have six months ago,
39:47seven months ago, because I actually was like I was like, "Oh, man. Okay, they these young guys on defense are stepping
39:52up. They suck right now, but they might step up when Mike comes back, and Bosa comes, Warner, and then the offense,
39:57they'll add this, this, and this." And then this kind of offseason happened.
39:59I'm like, "Oh, you know, it's it's very old." Um, it's very old. It's very injured as we all know, whatever substation jokes or whatever. But also,
40:08last year they went against a really easy schedule. Even that's a schedule with the Rams and Seahawks in their division. Yeah.
40:14>> But then also this year they faced a much tougher schedule and they might not just get those kind of gimmies they had.
40:20And I haten you even started this whole kind of segment saying like you have to you have to give some respect to Kyle
40:26Shanahan. Like he's probably going to have a top he's going to manufacture some top 10 offense. It's like it's not gonna be a bad offense, but it's not
40:31going to be to I think their best abilities because the KD injury it's like we just talked about ACL stuff.
40:37It's an Achilles. Achilles is like an 18-month injury like until you're near even close to 100%. It's really after a year it's like 80% and he had it late in
40:45the season. Um and I like Jake Tongis but he's not George KD. Uh and then you know and I like the you know I actually
40:52like dribbling a lot more than most. um like he would be like an interesting buy to me and everything, but like just this
40:57offense just doesn't and then CMC coming off all those touches. It just there's just a lot of like alarm bells ringing
41:04for me. As much as I respect Kyle Shanahan and what he can kind of manufacture.
41:07>> Just for everyone out there, we'll talk dribbling a lot tomorrow. We're going to do a rankings update episode. Uh and
41:13it's going to be interesting to see where we place him in comparison to Debo and all these other wide receivers out
41:18there. So, hit subscribe and and tune to that episode. Okay. We've talked about for running backs the offenses at the top. We talked about ones in the middle.
41:26I did want to bring your attention to the offenses at the bottom because every offense projected for fewer than 20 points all have running backs taken
41:36quite early. All right. In fact, >> three of them are going top 26 overall where you have the Raiders 28th and it's
41:44Ashen Genty. Miami is 29th with Devon Achan. Jeremiah Love and the Cardinals are 32nd here and he's 26th overall. And you even have Bree Hall and then uh
41:55Quinn Sean Judkins. So you know Nate last year Bejan Robinson and Devon Achan those teams were 24th and 22nd in scoring. ly like you can still get there
42:07when you catch a lot of passes, but at the same time I I went back and found like the player that underperformed the
42:13most. And obviously it was Ashen Genty at this time last year. He was drafted as a running back five basing the same
42:19exact slot at 11th overall and he finished as running back 17 because the Rays were projected for the 26th most points and they finished dead last. So
42:28again, good backs on bad offenses can get there when they catch a bunch of passes and they score the most touchdowns on the
42:35team, but it is kind of like this narrow framework at times for them to like pay off as a top 14 or even top 26 option.
42:44>> Yeah. And that's like as you like leave it like that cuz like the one guy I mean he's going 52 is Judkins because I think
42:50he hasn't catches.
42:52>> Yeah. and he doesn't catch passes.
42:54And that defense is not as strong as it it's going to be the last few years when it's been just locked in top five
43:00defense. It's going to be more I think pretty good. Like I think it's going to be an above average defense. Um
43:06quarterback situation still a mess like like locked in mess. I don't think no matter >> absolute mess. And I I will say I do
43:13like how the Browns invested in their own line. Like it's it's not going to be perfect this year, but I do like also
43:17every guy has versatility. self injuries that sure are going to h happen. They have some ways to move guys around, but
43:24yeah. Doesn't catch passes and it's kind of relying on slug it out game scripts, but they now don't have that defense to
43:30now slug it out. Yeah. So, he's a weird he's a needle to thread. There is a sweet spot for I think for Judkins
43:36because he has so much ability and I really just like his running style, but their team situation this year is weird.
43:42So, it's like yeah, I I I can't really feel amazing about it. I will say narratively scouting the Raiders Genty I'm like back buying into just because
43:52of it's a Kubak Shanahan offense. They invested in their offensive line. The quarterback has to be better. The coaches are actually coaching. They
44:00actually want to be there and I think that is going to like just let him get back to his ability. Like first rounder
44:06plus Shanahan offense. I know we talked about the Seahawks and I think they want to just go with him as 80% of the the
44:11touches or 75%ish. Like I'm gonna buy back into Genty, which I I know half of me is screaming, but I am going to buy
44:19back into it just a little bit.
44:21>> These ones are so tough because like Genty, HN, those guys can catch so many passes because there's just like no
44:27competition in not only just the backfield, but just in the skill group.
44:30Obviously, we have Bowers, but uh nobody else really behind him that those guys can get home. It's it's to me like
44:36Jeremiah Love makes me a little bit nervous because there's competition in his back field plus Trey McBride, Marv, Michael Wilson. Like that's the one
44:46where I'm like, "Okay, >> competent."
44:49>> There's not a lot of points here and there's a lot of competition to score, you know, in order for all these players
44:56to get there.
44:57>> And m maybe I think that the the Jets and the Cardinals aren't like the two worst offenses. Like to me, I'm looking
45:04at the Browns and then the Titans still make me really nervous. Uh just because that's offense is like so boom bust.
45:10There's lots of moving parts there and there that offensive line is just to me still so brutal. Um, but to me right now
45:17of the top or the bottom five running backs on on this list right here, Jeremiah Love at the two three turn is
45:23like really starting to make me feel queasy, especially with, you know, I know it's it's Hackit and he's he might not be in full full command over there,
45:31but just like the mention of like James Connor still, it's like, oh, I didn't think I wasn't thinking about James Connor still. I thought we'd move past
45:38that that you guys still bring him up.
45:40That makes me nervous. Um, and to me it's just like the lack of points with the target competition is making me feel
45:47nervous about Jeremiah.
45:48>> I I I talked through the teams that the markets did a poor job of projecting their offenses and they overperformed.
45:55Uh, I mean, again, the Cowboys, they finished fourth. Jaguars finished ninth.
46:00At this time last year, Nate, the Cardinals were projected for the ninth most points in the NFL.
46:06>> Yeah. Yeah. We're all looking for who did this. Credit to Milton to Hayden because that was our number one. They
46:12made a whole segment of >> are you sure that the Cardinals are going to be the ninth highest scoring team in the league. Like that does
46:18doesn't make any sense. But again, it has corrected now for them to be 32nd.
46:22So, uh yeah, that there's a lot of players. Uh and in fact, if I go to the wide receivers, >> Dolphins are weird, too, because the
46:29Dolphins O line is actually going to be dang good.
46:32>> That's what I keep saying about with Javanni, like the offensive line's actually good. They're good.
46:36>> Yeah. And then but then it's like McDaniel's gone and it's just like so that's where I'm like and I because
46:40Aan's talented and he's gonna work no matter what. But it's just like you know is it still gonna be that special.
46:45>> Uh but their O line is like might surprisingly be like a top 10 O line this year which is kind of
46:50>> just run to the left. You know don't even worry about the right side. Run left and you're good.
46:53>> I know Quinn Sean is like the opposite of Amarian Hampton to me where I thought Quinn Sean had the best rookie runner
47:01tape last season.
47:02>> Yeah. Uh, but that's more of like a 2027 thought I need to have in my head because >> yeah, >> you know,
47:09>> as you outlined, they were able to give him 20 carries a game because the defense would make it keep the
47:14scoreboard like 10 nothing versus now that might be 17 nothing, 21 nothing and then uh yeah, you're scripted out versus last year uh it kept you in it and you
47:23got all those opportunities. But he he can uh tote the football and create yards in his own. That is for sure.
47:28>> Yeah.
47:29>> Okay.
47:29>> Receivers are better.
47:31>> That's just true. That's another thing, too.
47:34>> All right, we we are 50 minutes in and we haven't even touched on wide receivers, so I'll do this quickly.
47:38Okay, the Buffalo Bills were projected for the most points last year. They finished sixth. Okay, the Buffalo Bills this year are projected for the second
47:46most points. However, Nate, uh if you look at their top wide receiver or tight end score this past season, it was 8.9
47:54points per game, and that was Don Concincaid. So, I guess my question to you is if the Bills are the second best
48:02scoring team in the league this year, they trade a second round pick for DJ Moore and when you look at these ADPs,
48:08he's going much later than anyone else in the top six offenses at 64 overall.
48:12Does is DJ Moore talented enough at this point in his career that this is like a bargain buy or is this team just
48:20different since the departure of Stefon Digs and they just want to pass around the rock? Oh, that's a tough question because it's like yes, it's one of those
48:27where it's he's going to slot everybody into a better role like where it's like is DJ Moore a true true blood what I
48:34consider you know like a real number one? No. Like ideally he is what he's supposed to be in Chicago which is like
48:39a good two um or high high-end two but that's so much better than what the Bills have had. This that's that's the
48:47thing is like they I my you know it's not theory it's just more kind of proof of concept the crap to not crap you know
48:53jump. It's like you don't have to go to an A. You can sometimes you know like you can sometimes just go from a D minus
48:58to a B minus and it be like okay okay we can work with this because we have an A offensive line which they have a new
49:05left guard but so we'll see. But I do think they have some okay depth. Um so the old lineup was at the very worst was
49:10put at the top half of the league. they still have Josh Allen, but I also do think that his synergy in the offense
49:16will fit well um just because this offense has desperately needed some verticalness um for a couple years now.
49:23And is that so this is also too I will find out is that Joe Brady or is that you know his play designs? I don't think
49:31it is. I think it's just more lack of personnel like I mean this they were trying out Matt Holland Kleman can't go
49:38vertical you know he's >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean trad >> Yeah. You know what's the problem is the guy that was supposed to be the guy
49:46Tyrell Shavers got hurt right late last year. Like he actually was having some flashes. Um but no, it's so why I bring
49:52that up is DJ Moore is going to bring that. He has had a season in Carolina where he had over 13 area yards per
49:57target. um his best, you know, our other or fellow co-orker Matt Harmon, we were talking about today where his best years
50:05was when he was going vertical and he was just running a traditional X route tree. So, I do think that just adds that
50:11vertical element because Josh Allen's area has dropped off like a cliff. Um, and some of that is him being smarter, but I think it's just some of them he
50:18just has nobody to throw deep to. Like, it's just completely he's he's gone from >> his area yards on in under center went
50:25from 12 and a half yards in 2023 to 8.8.
50:28eight last year and those are supposed to be the launch plays and it's dropped over five yards. So like that just kind
50:33of speaks to like what he's kind of working with when he's trying to attack deep.
50:36>> Yeah. All like the scramble drill stuff like that should help DJ Moore's output and whatnot. John, I think my Omarian
50:42Hampton is starting to become DJ Moore.
50:44It's like okay. I'm also not convinced that he's as like I wouldn't have been spending the second pick or second round
50:51pick plus the extension on DJ more personally. But now that the Bills have done it, it's like at some point we're
50:56like this is going to be their guy in the offense and like looking at like Mike Evans and like just the injury
51:02concern with him and like a similar like projected offense like DJ Moore is just a step faster, a little bit younger,
51:10he's currently healthy. Like those type of things I do think matter. like Dalton Kade's like still limping around like that knee injury still bothering him.
51:16He's keeps leaving practice and stuff.
51:18Uh Khalil Shakir's like good in his role, but that's a very like defined role. It's like DJ Moore if he's competent is going to pay off this. And
51:25I think even with us like kind of recalibrating what what DJ Moore is in the league. I think he's still a
51:31competent receiver and hopefully he just plays uh with his head on straight and probably playing for a Super Bowl offense and without like the new target
51:38competition. Hopefully, he's just a little bit more settled and and confident. Just uh the effort is a little bit better where he's not, you
51:45know, halfway through the place. He's sitting down uh on the bench. I mean, one of the craziest reps I've ever seen.
51:53Uh if we can avoid that, we're in good shape here at this cost.
51:57>> Like, I mean, this is a great resource right here, Josh. But like, you can just kind of see it's like, wouldn't you
52:02rather have DJ more than like buying into anybody in the Jets offense two rounds earlier, >> you know? like like it just I'd rather
52:10buy Josh Allen's number one receiver even if he's not what we consider a number one. So that I love how you
52:16capture that Hayden. It's like the Hampton discussion. It's like I only get so high with him in a real football sense but fantasy like let's go just for
52:24one year. Let's do this. Like I can buy into that. it. I mean, that is kind of the premise of this idea of, hey, DJ
52:32Moore probably not as individually talented as Garrett Wilson, yet his offense is second and projected to score 26 points versus Garrett Wilson who's an
52:41awesome individual. Now, you know, they continue to add more and more pieces.
52:45And also, Frank Reich is calling plays uh in their project 18 and a half and 31st in the league. So, Frank Reich
52:54scares me to death, man. uh as as they play Colorado nice talk about him today because we preview the AFC East. So
53:01>> yeah, >> our Jets discussion was we we came down to like what the X factor is like what can swing the season and both of our
53:06answers was coaching competence.
53:10>> Uh speaking of coaching competence, you probably weren't prepared for this, but I did want to ask you about the Cincinnati Bengals. Okay. Obviously T.
53:16Higgins, Jamar Chase have both scored in the top four in points per game on any given season. But Nate, every single
53:24thing that you read from Joe Goodberry or see, you know, clips from training camp posted, they are trying to do this under center
53:34play action stuff and it's failing miserably in every single practice. Why do you think they're doing this? And do you think it's going to sustain itself?
53:42And if it does, do you think that Joe Burrow can handle it? Uh, and if he can't, then how is it going to impact
53:49our guys that were drafting both in the top 32 overall?
53:52>> Oh man, this is this is a man, this could be a whole show. Uh, this is so the underenter stuff I do think is them
54:01trying to complete the offense. It's them I I mentioned the Cowboys ability to pivot via personnel. That's where the I think the impetus of the Rams getting
54:09to 13 personnel was some of it was because they had some injuries, but I do think McVey had that idea of like hey
54:14playoff time we might have to do this.
54:16It's like we get down to these tough matchups at the end of the season. Um but I do think that some of this with as
54:22far as just considering with them with the Bengals is that I think they just want the ability that like hey we might
54:27have to get under center because they are so clued in on our static shotgun game which is what Burrow wants. Bro
54:32wants everything in front of him and every quarterback it's like that's the other thing too I' I've have tried to articulate better when talking about
54:39certain quarterbacks you know usually it's revolve around Jaylen Herz is that just because they don't do everything perfect doesn't mean that they're bad
54:46like just because they're like we I don't expect Shaq to shoot threes but I know he can put up 30 you know so that
54:53there there's some of those kind of limitations that I I think some get kind of get overblown sometimes or or kind of
54:58do away with. I do think they're trying to get some of that under center run game going more more than the play
55:03action game if that makes sense. They want to be able to throw that jab to have the ability to do it. And then
55:09that's just the complimentary piece, the complimentary part.
55:12>> But I do think the Bengals offensive line's underrated. Not going to say like elite, but way better than I think that
55:18they kind of been like talked about. I think it's the top half of the league. I really like their line coach, Scott
55:24Peters. Um, I I think just that the under center stuff is just kind of like it's a little overblown about how
55:30important it is to what they have to do.
55:32To me, my theory on it is that they want to attack more vertically because I think that's what this offense has been
55:38missing is some of that explosive attack because they face so much cover too.
55:42They face more cloud than anybody because of Herz because of Chase and because of uh Higgins and because of that is that they don't they kind of
55:49get, you know, clouded like they kind of get, you know, a cat put over the top.
55:53Um, I had some stats on this talking about top 10 offenses. So, this is kind of like finish my point is when they
55:58face Cloud, they're 26 in EPA per play.
56:01They have a 6.6 explosive play rate, uh, pass rate, I should say, or play rate, I'm sorry, which is 29th. They average
56:075.1 yards per play versus Cloud. And they face every other coverage combined.
56:12They're third in success rate, fifth in EPA per play, 5.7 yards per play, which is sixth. They average 10.3 explosive play rate, which is top half of the
56:20league. It's 18th. But why I'm bringing that all up is that some of that play action stuff, some of that big
56:27protection stuff is a way for them to attack vertical and that's how you beat cover two. I think the run game is there
56:32to beat cover two, but they have to beat them over the top and I think that's what they're trying to get to. That's my
56:38theory anyways, but that's what I >> if they paid me as a consultant way too much money, that's what I would say is
56:44what they would have to do. So I think they are trying to get that way.
56:47>> Oh yeah, we get the free alpha like and subscribe over here. The uh the thing that was came across uh for my Chase
56:54Brown research was he was RB2 and rush yards over expected when there was three or fewer yards to go. That is just not
57:02something that you would think with first of all Chase Brown's profile but also with the Bengals and maybe there's like a little proof of concept like oh
57:09we can actually push the pile a little bit where why don't we like actually start to tap into that uh in the
57:13offseason now that we've got the right offensive lineman in there. So uh I do think it's going to help Chase Brown a
57:19little bit. Maybe they're not going to like lead the league in pass attempts this year. They'll still be really high up there. But this is like a good, you
57:24know, playoff pivot like Nate was saying. Like this isn't to win in week two. Like this is like it's cold out and
57:30we're in Baltimore and it's the fourth quarter and we're trying to keep Lamar off the field. Like let's make sure we
57:35could uh actually do that now.
57:37>> Yeah. And we brought up on yesterday's show Josh McDaniels has talked about I just don't want to be gun all the time
57:42because you know defenses can key in on our running angles and you know you can be more diverse from under center. So
57:48Nate, do you think that this is just, you know, your standard training camp storyline that doesn't carry over into the season or do you think that this is
57:56something that can kind of trickle in and maybe cause some because it feels like the Bengals never start the season normal and this is kind of their version
58:04of it this this year.
58:05>> I I I know. I think that Well, what's frustrating to me is that a lot of the bad plays that get me'd or become
58:11popular or go viral or whatever in our circles are the bad ones. the ones that got nuked, you know, like the one that's
58:17very popular right now I noticed is that that's a it's a >> there's a difference between a bootleg and a naked. Uh if you want to get
58:24really in the micro of it all, a naked is there's nobody to capture that backside defensive end and he has a
58:29clear path. A bootleg has an influence, a guy that slam blocks, a guy crossing his face.
58:34>> Um and that play the Bengals defense is blitzing which kills a naked. So it's just a perfect defensive call at the
58:42perfect time. So, it's one of those where it's like I don't want to make a mountain album out of a molehill until I
58:45see again see it in action. But, I do like that they they have to because there is a cap to their offense
58:51preferred offensive attack right now.
58:53So, I think they this investment is real. How big of the offense it is, I think that's what people are kind of are
59:00making out of a molehill. I think this is still only going to be 10 to 20% of their offense. Not, you know, I think
59:08it's just so they can improve it to what it was. Or I should say they probably double the rate of what they are right
59:13now of go being under center, but still kind of bottom 10 in the league if that makes sense. Like it's not going to go
59:18to some crazy number. They're not going to become what the Rams are right now.
59:22Um, you know, where they're half their plays are under center. So I do think there's just going to be a little bit
59:27more but still kind of a relatively lower amount.
59:29>> This could be rapified just looking at this. I just have one question for Nate real quick. Uh Jacksonville um Brian
59:35Thomas versus Parker Washington like like who should we draft in in reddraft here? Like >> this is this is the question we're all
59:43>> I want to answer it.
59:44>> Yes.
59:44>> I looked Okay. I was watching Parker Washington's calves. Oh my god. Are he is jacked, man. Uh >> I know. I know. and Liam Cohen's like we
59:55really love Brian Thomas when he's running away from everybody and we really like Parker Washington when we throw the ball to him where now even
60:02though I love Brian Thomas that rookie tape his man coverage stuff was so sensational they they got him on a couple underneath stuff that we didn't
60:09see last year so I'm holding out hope that it could be back to Brian Thomas but the to me like the simple answer is
60:15like all right these like >> dig dig concepts of Parker Washington that we're hitting these crossing routes like is is that the guy we actually want
60:23This is the impossible question, but uh what's the scheme telling you?
60:26>> I'm leaning into the punch here and I I am going BTJ. Uh and it really is kind of it's more I I've I've joked about
60:34this is sometimes players need like another player to kind of really boost them. And it could be a mindset thing, could be whatever. I've always joked
60:41that Seab Biscuit the horse needed another fat horse next to him named Pumpkin. And sometimes guys just need their pumpkin. And to me, I think BTJ's
60:49pumpkin was Jacobe Meyers. And that like kind of like calmed them down, figured out, hey, we're only we're not gonna run
60:56you on any more dig routes. No more hospital balls. You don't have to worry about get your head taken off. So, it's
61:01just vertical and it's just outside. You start saw kind of start getting pieced together. But also, Liam Con's offense is very wordy. It's it's it's it's a
61:09very hard offense. No, it's I say it's super complex, but it's very designery and and they have a lot of verbose play
61:16calls. If you watch the first month of the season and everybody couldn't get to the line of scrimmage, you would notice
61:21that. It was crazy.
61:22>> They they set the record for illegal shifts in the first eight weeks of the season. Like not for the they set the
61:28season record in eight weeks for illegal shifts because they had so many guys that didn't know where they because they would kill a play and everybody would be
61:37like what?
61:37>> But they would look at they didn't even know who to look at. They like they didn't even know who had messed up. It
61:41was crazy.
61:42>> It was so funny. And then the second half of the year it just is like Jacobe Myers came in. it was a pro and then I
61:47think everyone was like, "Oh, okay.
61:49Okay." And then they learned the offense a little better and you it just it just felt so much more complete and just
61:55better. But why I'm bringing that all up is because I feel everybody is a little bit calmer now and Trevor Lawrence is a
62:01little bit calmer in this offense that I'm going to bet the guy with the most talent and that guy with most talent is
62:05BTJ. And this is a guy that loves Parker Washington >> and like you know loves having him on. I loved having him the last season. Uh,
62:13but I do think in a real football sense, I think just because everything is solidified, we know what routes you're really good at. Now we can design plays
62:19for you to kind of like create those explosives we need.
62:21>> Before Daniel Jones's injury, Hayden, the Colts were number one in scoring.
62:27This season, they're projected for 17th.
62:30Is that right process or is, you know, that an insult to Shane Syen and this team and what they can do?
62:38>> To me, it wasn't even just scoring. It didn't matter the metric you had. They were first in all of it. Explosive play
62:43success rate. It was everything clicked for like 11 12 weeks with the Daniel Jones stuff. Obviously, it's probably what 85% Daniel Jones and then with Alec
62:54Pierce, that might be 85% Alec Pierce.
62:56You lose Michael Pitman. So, I I do think we should be dinging them. Uh offensive line, uh mostly back tinkering with things here and there. I really
63:05like what Shane Sec does though. And I think that Daniel Jones for like what Nate was saying was like he has warts
63:10but if we don't see them exposed that often because they keep calling the stuff that he's actually good at then like who really cares about the warts uh
63:17for the most part. Um so yeah it's it's tough though because like you look at the offense is right above them though
63:22it's like okay do I really think they're going to be better than Jacksonville this year? I don't think I would would
63:26say that same Patriots the Chargers like that's what I was looking at this list.
63:30I was like, the NFL is in a good place.
63:32Like, >> you know, 21 is the Broncos. The Vikings, they're 20th. The Texans, we'll see about that one. That was a little
63:38bit uh surprising to me, but there's CJ Strat has had really good moments in the NFL, too. Tampa Bay's always been fringe
63:46top 10's. Like, you go down 21 teams and I'm like, okay, all those offenses have a case to to be top 10 to be.
63:53>> The Saints could rise up. Oh, yeah. I I'm I'm actually very bullish on the Patriots kind of like getting back up
63:58there. Like that was another one of some that can be undervalued. Like I had them as a top five offense in our top 10
64:04offensive show cuz I think they did a really good job of like insulating himself. All the receivers they added Eli Raridan um is really showing up. The
64:12tight end they drafted from third in the third round. I loved it.
64:14>> So I agree. I agree with you Hayden. The >> the Colts I'm kind of very I'm low on right now. I just it's not on Shane Stik
64:22as a play car. I totally agree with that. It's just that Pierce not being totally healthy. Yeah. how Josh DS is in
64:28like two receiver sets. I'm curious to see because I know they love Tyler Warren and they're really trying to like run a lot of the offensive stuff through
64:35him. Him and DS kind of have some syiness and and some of the router stuff. So, it's kind of it's like
64:42Jonathan Taylor is the guy I want to bet on the most. Uh but then the other thing, too, is I I I've been saving this
64:48actually, but I might as well just approach it now, is that the Achilles for for um for Daniel Jones, it's like
64:54that timeline's so scary and the under if they can't go under center like Jonathan Taylor in this offense is so much better when they can again it
65:04doesn't have to be the whole offense but 30% of the time if you can go under center um last year when Jonathan Taylor
65:10and Daniel Jones were both on the field early downs only under center Daniel Jones averaged 18.7 yards per drop back that's including scrambles and sacks
65:20>> shotgun 9.2 2 yards per drop back. So half and it's 66 passes from under center. So it's not like small sample
65:32size. It's over 50 nextgen stats guys.
65:34So that's good. Um but then like just comparatively then run game wise Jonathan Taylor has been better historically under center than from the
65:41shotgun as well. So it's just I don't know. I'm squinting a lot at the Colts right now. So they're really towing a
65:47line right now of like this thing could go sour quick and they they're switching out some offensive linemen.
65:52>> Totally.
65:52>> Yep. They're like the 49ers to me, you know, tear down from that. It's like everything could go right, but there's
65:56there's a fragility that exists here that we have to acknowledge.
65:59>> And this is someone that I love Stiken and what he designs. Like I really do and I I like a lot of their personnel,
66:04but just in totality it just kind of I'm a little Yeah. frowning my nose at it.
66:09>> Nate, we'll close on this. Uh, I mentioned that when you look back on a projected team total, the ones that
66:16underperform the most are the ones with bad offensive lines or injured offensive lines. I'm not going to ask you to predict which offensive line's going to
66:24get injured, but just generally, and these can be teams at the top or at the bottom of this list, >> which teams give you the most pause
66:31based on their offensive line right now that would allow them to, you know, play through uh their game plan every single
66:39week, >> man. I we just talked about quarterbacks being in a pretty good spot actually in totality. Like there's actually some O
66:45lines I like are actually way improved that you wouldn't expect. Um the Ravens are actually a little more fragile than you'd expect.
66:54And it kindic, but it's like that center spot is >> and I really like their offensive line coach. Really really like him. Uh Dwayne
67:06Leadford. Uh really like him. I'm interested to see Declan Doyle as a play caller and a play designer, but that old
67:11line is just giving me a little pause.
67:13Um, and it's not like where I'm just like, who cares? Have Lamar chuck it up to so and so and they have Derrick
67:18Henry, but Derrick Henry is another year older. So, like that's one that has me squinting just a little bit um right
67:24now. And then I'm just trying to think uh you know, the Falcons are kind of in a curious spot like as far as just who
67:31they're swapping out. Jake Matthews another year older where I but I do like their interior a lot. And then Jawan Taylor sounding actually wasn't as I
67:37actually like that signing as f like kind of like a cheapy. Um but no, that's the one that comes to mind though is um
67:44as the Ravens.
67:45>> Yeah. I mean and you know even if they lose one of their starters too then you're talking about the team projected
67:50for the fifth most points and if they play like the 20th best offensive line then >> that can really really hurt you.
67:56>> Yeah. At least John Simpson has experience with the team even though it's a different play caller and I'm assuming a different offensive line
68:02coach as well. So we'll see. Um, yeah, the Ravens I think are an interesting shot there. All right, anything else you
68:08want to say about the wide receivers or do we talk about it all?
68:10>> No, I might write about this. This is an interesting show. Uh, so maybe more to come over on yahooports.com.
68:16>> There it is. All right, Nate, we appreciate it. Nate's show is linked in the description down below. I know Hayden and I will be appearing on it uh
68:24during the season, so there's going to be some crossover episodes >> going on with that. And soon preview preview work in.
68:31>> Yes.
68:32>> Yeah.
68:33>> Yeah. Show, show, show. You got FC West.
68:35Josh, you got FC South. Get on it.
68:37>> There we go. There we go. All right.
68:39Didn't know that was my homework, but now I do. All right, everyone. Shout out to uh Weaves and Moho behind the scenes
68:44and all of you for watching. Uh we'll check you on the next episode, which is rankings tomorrow. See you.