0:00is your final rankings of week 10, your wide receivers. And as always, this week's game plan is brought to you by
0:06Farmers Insurance. What a position, Hayden. And a late and I mean last second update has put Jamar Chase as your wide receiver one this week ahead
0:16of Jackson Smith and Jigma. Chase and T.
0:18Higgins, by the way, both in the top five, are facing off against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tell me why.
0:24Bengals have the most pass heavy offense in neutral situations and the the Steelers defense is allowing the highest neutral pass rate allowed because
0:31defenses aren't or offensives aren't even trying to run the ball on the Steelers. I don't know why the Bengals would try to do that this time around.
0:38Plus, Jamar Chase has faced the Steelers many times obviously in this division.
0:42He's finished as the wide receiver 515 and 11 since 2024 if we remove that Joe Flacco game. So, he's absolutely torched
0:48them. Uh Jamar Chase was had one of one of the best first half of of a wide receiver game I've ever seen in my
0:54entire life last week and big days are coming.
0:57>> Big agree. Uh yeah, I mean I've been talking about it for weeks that I thought that Joe Burrow should be uh
1:02favorite for MVP and now he is which is great. I'll add that the Steelers defense has been what a top five six
1:08unit so far this season in a lot of metrics. I think a big part of that is they can overwhelm certain opposing
1:14offensive lines. Uh Cam Hayward's still getting the damn thing done. TJ Watt along the edge, Alex Highmith, but I mean Hayden, this Cincinnati Bengals
1:24offensive line is freaking awesome, especially Amarius Mims at right tackle.
1:28In fact, like Orlando Brown might be the weakest link at left tackle, but obviously more than solid uh among that position across the
1:36>> Yeah, I think Amarius Mims has been like the big the biggest difference on the Bengals now versus last couple years is
1:40I think Marius Smiths.
1:42>> Jackson Smith and Jigba is your wide receiver too. This is at the Las Vegas Raiders. Uh even with a backup
1:50quarterback in Drew Lock, who by the way is not 100% healthy, this team is still favored. Uh they are still expected to
1:58score 23 and a half points. And that is despite being on the road. So while this Rod Leonard defense like started off the
2:05season kind of hot, boy oh boy has it fizzled up.
2:08>> Yeah, they just don't have enough talented players on defense right now.
2:11Um JSN's played four games with Drew Lock over the past two years. It's ex pretty much the exact same numbers as he
2:16has with Sam Darnold. 106 yards per game, nine and a half targets is kind of where he's projected for here. The
2:24Raiders been absolutely shredded on defense like you said, but especially on deep passes. Jordan Watkins got over the top for for score. Adai Mitchell was the
2:32wide receiver three a couple weeks ago.
2:34Keon Coleman had a wide receiver 15 spot as well. So like exactly where JSN is kind of utilized is where they've like
2:41really given up a lot of uh points.
2:44>> CD Lamb is your wide receiver three.
2:45This is against the San Francisco 49ers.
2:48I mean this is going to be a laser show.
2:52Oh yeah.
2:52>> Uh 26 nearly projected points for the Cowboys. Nearly 30 for the San Francisco 49ers. A 55 and a half game total for
3:00this one. I believe that's the highest of the season.
3:02>> Yeah. So I knew this was going to be a laser show and then I looked at the injury report. Joey Porter, the Cowboys
3:08number one corner, he's not gonna play with foot injuries. We'll get to Debo and Keenan in a little bit. And then the
3:1449ers corners, uh, Lenor and Renardo Green, both of them are trending towards not playing because they haven't practiced yet. So, we'll get this kind
3:21of confirmed later on, but potentially the three best corners in this game are going to be outs on top of how good
3:26these defenses or these offenses are.
3:28And the offensive lines, you can make an argument like the last couple weeks offensive linewise, the Ners and the Cowboys, no one's playing better than
3:35them at this point as well. like this one. Like you can't get higher uh you can't get high enough on these guys.
3:41>> And I know people have been frustrated by George Pickkins. Uh I have some flaming hot George Pickins predictions that later on here.
3:48>> Good.
3:49>> So put a pin in that. I'm on Ross Brown as your wide receiver for this is against the New England Patriots. Uh I
3:55mean against this Patriots defense recently this past week. Matthew Golden went 10 for 164 and one. Christian Watson 7 for 171 and1. Uh, we also know
4:04that Amar Ros Brown plays 41% of his snaps in the slot. Greg Rosenthal has been talking about how early to start
4:11the season, Christian Gonzalez looked like one of the top corners in the league. Then he got injured maybe over the last three or so weeks. Hasn't
4:17played nearly as good of a game as we are used to from him. So, I'm expecting this one to also be a uh nice total when
4:25it comes to the scoreboard.
4:27>> Yeah. And then I think Carlton Davis is trending towards not playing either with the knee injury. you know, he's going to
4:33be on Indian side, so it doesn't really matter that much. The thing with Amanra is he has not scored a touchdown,
4:38>> correct?
4:38>> Since September, Lions typically score a lot of touchdowns. So, if you're looking at your Amanra box scores and being like,
4:45where's the fantasy points? He's ran pretty cold recently. That's nothing about his skill set or the Lions offense or anything. Like, you know, it's just
4:53the fact is you played the the Vikings in there and the touchdown variance went the other way. We've been talking about
4:58how good JO has been recently. Uh, typically it's on Ross and Brown. So, I'm kind of just throwing those games out. I don't really want to like look
5:05into those too much.
5:06>> Yeah. And what we talked about in stats versus film, and this goes to Sam Leaport as well, they've thrown for
5:10fewer than 170 yards over the last two weeks. And you have to split that, you know, four different ways plus that one
5:16Isaac Tesla performance, uh, you know, each and every week. He's still the wide receiver seven and points per game on the season. Again, despite over the last
5:25six games, wide receiver 35, 28, 26, 9, 33, and 22. My last note, the Patriots have been beaten by these type of a
5:34Monra receivers. Malik Washington, wide receiver 17, Luther Burden, wide receiver six. Omar Cooper, wide receiver six, as well. So, these kind of like
5:42slot hybrid types have really gashed him up. I think that makes sense. You have Christian Gonzalez on the boundary.
5:47>> Anything you want to add about T.
5:49Higgins being the wide receiver five this week after we talked about Jamar Chase. I mean, they are somewhat attacking different areas of the field.
5:54We've talked about it so much that it's over the middle for T. tigens his intermediate routes and then whatever you want with Jamar Chase, but we've
6:01also seen, you know, T have his vintage, and I'll say vintage, uh, sideline tight window contested catches, too.
6:08>> He's just total monster. Uh, my main note for for T. Higgins is against the Steelers since 2022. He's been the wide
6:14receiver 8, 15, 12, 6,9, and four. You know, the Bengals just shred the Steelers defense. It kind of is what it
6:20is. And I that's that's removing a week 18 game that didn't matter. Uh and yeah, they're three and a half point
6:25favorites. Fourth highest team total on the week. The ball is just going to these two. We haven't seen a rushing score aside from Joe Burrow uh in a long
6:32time with with the Bengals here. And yeah, like you said, Joe Burrow MVP means both these guys can be top fiveish
6:39wide receivers.
6:40>> Okay. Is that the top tier or do we keep moving? Yeah. And Okay. Yeah, I I I think so, too. Now,
6:48>> I think Justin Jefferson with a new quarterback could potentially work himself up into that spot. I mean, either you or Matt, I can't remember
6:54which one, in Stats versus Film said despite what being the wide receiver 36 on the season right now, he has a chance
7:01of being a top 10 wide receiver the rest of the way. I mean, games with Kurt Cousins in his career, he has averaged
7:07106 receiving yards per game. That would be the wide receiver to on the season if he's able to do that for the rest of the
7:14season only behind Jackson Smith and Jigba. Yeah, I would say I think we're gonna find a middle ground between those crazy Kurt Cousins numbers and what he's
7:23been recently, which I think is still like going to be a low-end wide receiver one, which is exciting because he was
7:28not going to be a wide receiver one uh without Kurt Cousins. Uh I think the Vikings defense being as good as it is
7:33now. And then we'll see about the neutral pass rate. They're you they're bottom 10 right now. They typically were top five in the Kurt Cousins era. Like I
7:40think that metric will dictate how much Justin Jefferson kind of climbs up the rankings. Uh to his credit, back in week
7:48one, he was the wide receiver three overall, 92 yards, two touchdowns. I was with Carson Wentz against these Green Bay Packers. The Packers have slowed
7:55down. The Panthers duo, the Cowboys duo, Aman Ross St. Brown recently. It's a well coached defense. They have awesome safety play as well. I'm sure they're
8:03going to make sure that Justin Jefferson is not going to be the one to to beat them. Uh and still Kurt Cousins, he just
8:09understands the assignment. Throw the ball to number 18, uh not to anybody else. And plus TJ Hawinson has not practiced.
8:16>> And like you kind of outlined for the people criticizing KOC, I've seen open receivers in almost every game this season maybe outside of that Detroit
8:22Lions one when Jordan could not separate on the backside. Um and then against like the Saints, you know, we saw turndowns by Kyler Murray that we
8:30pointed out and then this past week it was just flatout misses to wide open receivers by by Carson Wentz. So yeah,
8:36you know, Kirk just hit those and feel better about it.
8:39>> Okay, Chris Lave is your wide receiver seven. I think this could be a fantastic week for Alvey. I mean, the Panthers
8:46defense 91st percentile in terms of single high coverage rate. Edro Evo was kind of like disguising those single high coverages, uh, splitting the
8:54safeties, then moving them pre postnap, all that type of stuff. I'm not so sure if Todd Wash is going to do that to that
9:00degree. And yeah, I mean, this team struggles without a blitz to create a pass rush. And Kelvin Banks just returned last week. So Nate on our recap
9:09show did uh a little breakdown on on Todd Wash who comes from the Seahawks and immediately they go back to a lot of
9:17the single high cover three stuff which is not totally outdated but it's a little bit outdated and if you don't have the corners you can't play that
9:25coverage and the Panthers haven't had the corners. So that's where I think to your point this could be a big big game.
9:30Mike Jackson full participant they're their CB2. Uh he's >> so they just changed that. That was an apparently an erroneous report and it
9:39was all scout team work for he and Jonathan Brookke. So he should have been limited >> and not full participant. So I I would
9:46assume that Mike Jackson isn't back until next week.
9:49>> Okay. Uh and JC Horn to make sure, right? Both of them are going to work still. Yeah. And then you know Will Lee,
9:55he's been banged up and you might want Will Lee on the field if you're a Chris Olive owner. Well, I mean, any Panthers
10:02fan would prefer Will Lee to a Caleb Evans and maybe some of these other dudes on top of it. So, >> uh, yeah. I mean, I when I think of
10:09Tyler Shuck and he gets single high, he's going to try to let it rip to these outside quarters.
10:15>> That's for sure.
10:16>> Yep.
10:17>> All right. After him, you have Christian Watson. He's your wide receiver eight.
10:23Later on, you have Matthew Golden. This is on the opposite end of that Minnesota Vikings game. And you had a great note
10:31about Christian Watson's target shares versus first the blitz and without the blitz. And that's very notable when you face a defense like the Vikings. Yeah,
10:39the numbers on that. His target share is 18% when he's not facing the blitz, 31% against the blitz. Jordan Love has been
10:47the number one quarterback in terms of amount of blitzes faced. Also, the amount of touchdowns thrown, yardage thrown uh against the Blitz. And
10:54Christian Watson on the receiving end is leading the NFL in yardage against the Blitz. The Packers are just the unique offense. Like they're as unique of an
11:03offense as the Vikings are defensively.
11:05When they get blitz, Jordan Love is like, "How about I throw this ball 32 yards down the field right away. Like
11:11instantly catch the ball, release it, put the huge amount of arc on under it, and then hopefully Christian Watson's and and Matthew Golden could come down
11:19with it." Uh Watson had 147 yards, two touchdowns back in week one against the the Vikings here. I think the Packers
11:26probably a little bit better suited uh now against the Vikings defense because their offense has kind of calmed down or the offensive line's kind of calm down.
11:34Plus, they face Brian Flores more than anybody else. So, it's like not as big of a surprise. Like Flores against an
11:39inexperienced quarterback, uh play caller, offensive line, running back room just absolutely annihilates them. I do think that there's a little bit
11:47one-on-one more one-on-one opportunities here for a team like the Packers to take advantage.
11:52>> Yeah, I mean, in week one, Jordan Love only completed 50% of his passes, but he still threw for 387 yards and two
11:58scores. I will say other than that game and I'm sure you know the defense was still kind of getting used to Jonathan
12:03Ganon of it all and they've really come on since then you know >> uh the most passing yards uh obviously the Packers defense and then flipping on
12:12over to the Vikings defense. The most passing yards the Vikings have allowed since that game was uh 234.
12:19I like their odds to clear that. Okay, Drake London is up next and this was a late move up for you. Up to wide
12:27receiver nine. Um, he's been wide receiver 40 in points per game over the last four weeks. So, inject the people with some optimism who drafted Drake
12:36London in their life.
12:38>> I'll just zoom out. All career games with Michael Pennix is averaging 93 yards per game, 10 targets. Clear fantasy wide receiver one. Uh, down
12:46month he still has a 25% target share.
12:48Uh, you know, Michael Pennix forgot how to play football against that Tampa Bay monsoon game. Kind of throwing that, you know, game out the window there. Uh,
12:56last week they returned to being a pass heavy operation. Three of their last four games have cleared 50% neutral pass rate. The one game was the monsoon game.
13:05That's that was the outlier. So, you know, more drop backs, more underneath dropbacks. Mansor Delane's going to be playing the Chiefs number one corner.
13:12He's been awesome. Nol Williams also a very good uh corner as well. This is not an easy matchup whatsoever. You can just
13:18take that though and say you're probably just going to throw the ball underneath, especially if the Chiefs kind of uh put
13:24up points against the Falcons defense that's a little bit injured and they just traded away Jesse Bates and they're at home, you know? So, like it's kind of
13:32easy to get Drake London like six catches underneath. Like, I mean, shame on, you know, the quarterback and the the play caller if we can't get our
13:38ourselves six targets here and they're still projected for 22 points.
13:42>> Yeah. Well, how you do it is you get him in the slot more often. You know, like >> get them the easy receptions in this
13:49offense and the Chiefs are allowing a 76% catch rate to slot receivers and a 50% catch rate, which is a league low to
13:58outside players. So, like if we know this, Kevin Sansancy should know this and just get him the the easy layups over the middle. But man, I was already
14:07concerned and, you know, have had my priors fulfilled here on Michael Pennix versus pressure. It is baloney.
14:14>> It is bad. It's bad. You know, losing your starting center uh at the deadline is not going to help that. I will say
14:21this, speaking of slot, Zachariah Branch is doubtful with a hamstring injury.
14:26Like that's obviously a slot player. So, if there was an even easier reason to get him in in the slot, there's that.
14:31This episode is brought to you by Farmers Insurance. Questioning your lineup? Sure. Question your insurance?
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14:47insurance that's truly on your team, visit farmers.com today. Parker Washington is your wide receiver 10.
14:54This is at the Tennessee Titans. another guy, wide receiver 44 over the last >> four weeks, but this has very clearly
15:02been, hey, in the first half when the game is tight, uh, you're really good at football and so you get like four and a
15:09half targets in those first two quarters. Second half, Parker Washington, you're still very good at football, but we're too good of a unit
15:17in comparison to our opposition that we don't really need to throw the football in the second half. But Hayden, like there have been games where the Jaguars
15:25scored 32 points and Parker Washington's done very little. I'm going to play the wide receiver one on a team that scores
15:3032 points every single time and I'm going to play the wide receiver one on a team projected for 28 and a half points
15:36this week. 10 and a half point favorites and just bank on Parker Washington being a part of that. Yeah, the Titans lost
15:41Jeffrey Simmons and safety Ammani Hooker at the deadline. They were already not very good. The second most passing yards allowed uh per game. Most fantasy points
15:49to wide receivers per game. the Titans especially have been bad on kind of these intermediate throws. Five to 20 air yards are allowing the most
15:56production to fantasy wide receivers.
15:58And then I had the same notes on on the halves. Uh 48 uh yards in the first half per game and then 13 yards in the second
16:06half of games. And I looked at like what what exactly is the reason why and we know Jacksonville's been very good this
16:12year. They're leading in point differential by 29 points over any other team. So like they're they're not just like winning games, they're blowing
16:20teams out. They can easily do that here.
16:22And so you're kind of like, you know, tossing a coin. Is he he's the driver of them blowing teams out or is it somebody
16:28else? It's a good game to play in fantasy.
16:31>> Yes. Yeah. I mean, the Titans are 29th in points allowed to opposing top wide receivers. Yeah. So you just got you
16:37have to play him, you know. It's pretty simple to me. Matthew Golden, anything you want to add?
16:43>> Just really reminds me of Steph Diggs, you know. Uh, I think he's an amazing player. Uh, I looked at the Matthew
16:49Golden splits. Blitz versus no blitz. He gets 29% targets. Whether you're blitz in, not blitz in, doesn't matter. You're getting your 29% targets for Matthew
16:56Golden. They're happening way down the field. They're often happening in the end zone. And I'm still waiting for more Matthew Golden catch underneath and run
17:04for 40 yards. I know that he's capable of that. And this could be the type of game where you can get uh one less guy
17:10over the middle and you can get some yak um opportunities. So, difficult matchup, but I think they're prepared.
17:16Z Flowers against the LA Chargers is your wide receiver 13. Um, I mean, the Chargers, while they might have improved just a little bit on
17:26defense, it's still an opposition we want to attack. And what I keep coming back to is just how freaking good Declan
17:32Doyle has been, >> yeah, >> at getting ZFL is the easiest matchup on the field, using the heavier personnel looks and
17:41motion shifts, all of it to bump the coverage out. And then there you go.
17:45It's Slowers versus a linebacker and uh he can take things to the races. So Hayden, I am certainly not expecting the
17:527.6 yards per route run that Save Flowers has with Lamar Jackson this season. I will settle for 2.76 yards per route run. I'm sure he would. That'd be
18:02pretty electric. Uh yeah, I think he's capable. I was looking at the games just with Tyler Huntley. He's played nine games with Tyler Huntley uh over over
18:09the last couple seasons. He's averaging 66 yards per game in in those nine. I think Tyler Huntley, Jacobe Brassette just coming to town. Largely a wash. I
18:18think we should actually just throw the Joe Finaniano game out the window this this last week. I know it has not been
18:23pretty, but I think we're going to find a nice middle ground for Flowers and Dererick Henry. We also got a Lamar
18:28Jackson official update. It is 6 to 10 weeks. Uh if you kind of do the math, that brings them to week 15 on the early
18:35side. I will note the Ravens close out the uh their schedule only playing division games and obviously this division is very close. They currently
18:44have a 10 to 20% chance of making the playoffs depending on, you know, if you're looking at a prediction market or
18:49your favorite model out there. Um, you need Jacobe Brassette to win games to influence Lamar Jackson to be out there to play. Now, Lamar might just not be
19:00able to play whether they're winning games or not. But if you have Zay Flowers and Derk Henry and especially Lamar Jackson, they need to win some
19:07games because if they're if they're eliminated by week 16, week 17, he's just not going to come back. uh especially looking at that contract
19:13situation.
19:15>> Let's talk DJ Moore. He's your wide receiver 14. Consensus rankings wide receiver 19. Uh last week was his worst that he's played in full with Josh Allen
19:25in a game this season, but that also makes sense. They played the freaking Minnesota Vikings, you know, and we're doing a very good job running the
19:31football.
19:32>> Oh, yeah.
19:32>> Um do you want him to be A or Btier?
19:34Probably A still. Yeah.
19:36>> Yeah, I like Aier for him. Um, this is me like completely cheating and you can pick your own narrative for for DJ Moore
19:42at this point. I can argue that he's played two normal games. Week one before his injury and then week eight. Last
19:50week he get the Vikings. All those games in between that you had him in and out of the lineup.
19:55>> In those two games that the normal games, he was the wide receiver eight on wide receiver 23 usage and then he was
20:00the wide receiver 13 on wide receiver 9 usage. kind of average that thing out, you get the wide receiver 14 in my
20:06rankings. So, this takes like a leap of faith because we have not seen it enough for DJ Moore to get here. And at the
20:12same time, I'm way more likely to do a leap of faith with Josh Allen as my quarterback. 29 and a half point team
20:18total here against the Jets defense. The Jets defense, uh, I think has been decent against fantasy wide receivers.
20:26Uh, but they've also had an incredibly easy fantasy wide receiver schedule this season. And I've already seen, you know, Jaylen Naylor, Caleb Douglas, Pop
20:34Douglas finish as wide receiver 28 and 10 this month. I've seen that DJ Moore is on a totally different level here.
20:41So, leap of faith, but one I'm willing to take.
20:44>> Yeah, I I totally agree with with all of that. Um, I was willing to play him last week because of the same exact games
20:49that you cited, and then, you know, it's the Vikings, so it just might not pay out. So, I'm I'm totally cool with
20:54reusing them here for this one. Okay.
20:56George Pickkins is your wide receiver 15. This against the San Francisco 49ers. mentioned earlier that yes, despite the pessimism, I am optimistic
21:05about George Pickkins against the 49ers.
21:08Um about 60% of their coverage, Hayden is single high. That's in the 85th percentile across the leagues.
21:14>> Uh per the worksheet against those coverages, George Pickkins has been targeted on 32% of his routes around 2.5 yards per route run. And it makes sense.
21:23>> Yep. you know, when you see him isolated on the sideline, on the boundary, on the field, wherever, go and throw it up. And
21:31those are the best outcomes here. So, hopefully he's healthy. Hopefully there's nothing nefarious going on behind the scenes. Um because if so,
21:39then I think like this is your typical highscoring. We got to get George Pickins involved.
21:44>> Yeah, he's still been limited in practice. You mentioned nefarious. Like you just never know what's going on between the Cowboys and George Pickins
21:51here. definitely runs hot and cold. Um, and then I'll just reuse the same notes with CD Lamb. The 49ers might be without
21:59their top two corners. And uh, if you're playing single high with backups out there, like that's a recipe for disaster now. They're well coached. I'm sure it's
22:07just not going to be that easy. But 26 point team total, man, like if if we hadn't had some George Pickkins
22:13nonsense, like we would be parking George Pickkins at wide receiver, you know, 789. Um, so I'm discounting that from there. Rightfully so, though.
22:22>> Tenner McMillan, is he a tier or Btier for you?
22:26>> Um, let's go let's go A tier.
22:31>> Yep. So, I think that this can be a really good game for T-Mac and especially for Jaylen Coker, who is my
22:37bold prediction that he's going to finish top 18 this week. Um, look, when you think of this Panthers offense, and by the way, NextGen Stats
22:47just put out a very, very, very cool page that shows trends and not just trends from this year, but comparing them to previous years. It shows how
22:54different the Panthers passing game this season has been. And Bradick is a major part of that. And obviously these healthy guys is, but they are right up
23:02there with the 49ers and Jaguars in terms of targeting inbreaking routes over the middle of the field. Like I don't think people realize just how
23:08great they have been in that area. Like those are the two best teams at it and the Panthers are right next to them. So
23:15as we have talked about, there are certain games where the Panthers offensive line is going to get overwhelmed and then you know Bryce's
23:22lack of size shows up in those. That wasn't the case last week. They bought out and I don't think that's necessarily
23:28going to be the case this week against the Saints. I know that they've had what 13 sacks over the last three or four
23:33games, >> but um I think the offensive line is going to play at least to a below average to average level and that could
23:38mean really good weeks for teamm.
23:40>> Yeah, the Saints have been weirdly vulnerable like on intermediate to deeper targets which is like kind of goes against what Brandon Staley wants
23:47to happen but like it kind of takes two to tango. Your players have to be good enough. They've allowed the third most
23:52half PPR points on passes over 15 airs.
23:56that. So obviously Tettereroa and Jaylen Koker can be a part of that. The Panthers have still been very high in neutral pass rate 60%. That's third
24:04highest in the league. Uh team total wise is right around uh a league average at 23. Dome environment. I think that
24:11the Saints are going to have a great game against the Panthers defense. Like this is to me the game that can be like
24:16the the sloppy shootout of the week. Oh yeah.
24:19>> Um and I think that they're kind of underproed on on both sides here. T-Mac does have like very notable splits with
24:25Coker and without Coker dating back to like the last couple seasons. Uh but still this month he's the wide receiver 20 in usage with Coker back in the
24:32lineup. So he just needs to play a little bit better. Bryce needs to play a little bit better and then we're going
24:36to be back to where uh he is as a as kind of like an upside wide receiver too.
24:43>> Nico Collins, the man that plays 73% snaps and fewer than Xavier Hutchinson. your thoughts on Nico Collins this week in a really pass
24:52first offense now at the Cleveland Browns that have done a very good job um on outside wide receivers uh so far this
24:58season.
24:59>> The reality is he's a part-time player and I just don't think that's going to change. Like they've been doing that for
25:05a while now. Marvin Harrison picked up a hamstring injury. He might not play.
25:10He's been barely playing anyways. And the biggest difference between Nicl Collins and previous seasons to this one is against man coverage. he's been like,
25:19you know, normal fantasy wide receiver one stuff where in previous years, Nico Collins was like the best man coverage uh wide receiver in the game. So, I
25:27looked at the man coverage and that's a big thing because the Browns are like the only team that's daring enough to
25:32just sit there in man coverage on half the snaps. Um, and Xavier Hutchinson is the one that's leading this team in
25:39targets per man coverage route, and it's not even close. Uh, Nika Collins 1.3 yards per route run against man coverage is shockingly low for how good he is. I
25:49think that's small sample size noise. I still want to treat Na Collins as an upside wide receiver, too. But just the
25:55targets have not been there enough. 5.3 targets per game over the last month.
25:58Like that is not set it and forget it top 12 wide receiver. I'm hoping we can get a couple spike weeks like to remind
26:04ourselves of how good he is, but the the role is just not great right now.
26:09>> I will add that Marvin Harrison Jr. is not practicing on Friday. So maybe his like 40% snaps. Maybe that adds another
26:155 to 10% on top for for Nico Collins.
26:17That would be great. Or just gave even more to Tank Dell and that's party.
26:22>> Well, I'll tell you what is actually going to happen. That's more Xavier Hutchinson and more Kan Moody. You know exactly what that is.
26:28>> Xavier Hutchinson goes up to 110% of snaps.
26:31>> True.
26:31>> That's what happens. Okay. Jameson Williams is up next for you as your wide receiver 18. This against the New England Patriots we talked about with
26:37Amarasian Brown. uh that you know the Lions passing offense less than 170 yards in in back-to-back games, but for the last month plus it's been peak
26:49Jameson Williams season.
26:51>> Yeah, the Patriots have had the most uh fancy points to wide receivers on passes over 15 near yards. That's where Jamo
26:57does his damage. Christian Gonzalez and some like more like communication mistakes at times for Christian Gonzalez recently and Rael's calling out somebody
27:05in the media, one of the players. I don't know who it is, but the way he's talking about it makes >> that you don't want to be here.
27:12>> Yes, I do wonder.
27:14>> I think it might be Christian Barmore.
27:15Like there were some some hints that his name might be available in the trade deadline. So, I do wonder if it's Bar.
27:21>> Yes. Uh and then anyways, Carlton Davis, their number two corner, who would have seen JO on some of these snaps is not
27:27going to play in this one. So, there's there's definitely a pathway for Jamo catching a deep pass. That's what the Patriots have been doing the entire
27:35season. Even though it hasn't made sense that Christian Gonzalez is way better than he's been playing this year, but maybe like, you know, corners go hot and
27:42cold and he's on a cold streak and let's just keep riding the the cold streak, I guess.
27:47>> Okay, Garrett Wilson's up next. What could possibly go wrong? Uh, he returns to the lineup. He is wide receiver 24 in
27:55consensus rankings. So, you're wide receiver 19.
27:59>> Why?
28:00>> Well, the Yahoo consensus rankings are looking at it 17, 17, 16, 13. Then I'm at 19. So, it depends on where we're
28:05getting our consensus from. Uh, I'm guessing that consensus rankings, some people not think he's going to play. I think he's going to play. Um,
28:12>> yeah, he has moved up since I wrote this. So, yes, he is playing. Uh, to to your point, that is why he moved up.
28:19>> I just keep running into the same problem with all these Jets wide receivers is there's too many of them and too many tight ends, too many
28:24running backs. The team total is at 21 points. Um, and then he's going to get the Christian uh Benford treatment here.
28:29They also added Ammani Hooker at the deadline to, you know, sh things up.
28:33They've been terrible at safety this year. So, I think that the hooker upgrade is like a real one to kind of
28:38note. Uh we'll see if he plays this week just coming off the deadline. But yeah, man, he's over the last four games, he's
28:44the wide receiver, 28 on wide receiver, 18 usage. It's a 27% target share, but like they're going to run the ball at
28:50the two yard line. They're not going to pass the ball like they're going to hit some explosives to the other two wide
28:54receivers. Like if you're getting 40 yard plays from your other wide receivers, like that's another target or two that's getting ripped away from
29:00Garrett Wilson. There's I think a reset needs to happen with Garrett Wilson.
29:04He's still a wide receiver too in fantasy, but like I think we've kind of taken some of the air out of the blue.
29:11>> Yeah, I mean they're 27th in pass attempts per game and it's like eight or nine fewer than the Panthers and the
29:17Saints and a whole bunch of others each week. So >> yeah, >> pretty simple here. Now, this might be a game where they throw 38 times, you
29:24know, that could also mean >> four or five sacks on on Juno Smith.
29:28>> Mhm.
29:29>> Okay. Rashi Rice is your wide receiver 20. No Jesse Bates on the opposite side.
29:35Uh because this is at the Atlanta Falcons.
29:39Just a solid performance from Rishy Rice is what we're hoping for here.
29:43>> Yeah, I just don't think he has the same level of juice as he has before. And now we're getting Josh DS. I'm assuming he's
29:49going to play, but Andy Reid's always weird about, you know, how difficult his playbook is. So, it's possible that Josh DS doesn't suit up. We we'll learn more
29:57on on Sunday. I do think that would matter. And then Xavier Worthy, I thought he was going to like, you know,
30:02possibly head to IR for how he went down with his hamstring injury and then he's back fully practicing. He he might know
30:09that Josh Downs is trying to take his job, so he's gonna have to play through it. Uh, long story short, I I do think
30:14that Rashi Rice is still the guy for for this week. Falcons underneath, that's been the problem for for this defense.
30:22Under 10 airs, allowing the fifth most fantasy production on a per game basis.
30:26Obviously, that's where Rashid Rice gets the job done. So, I think it's a fine play, nothing more.
30:33>> AJ Brown and Raandre Stevenson are questionable to play in this contest. Um, we've had some another weird injury reporting, I would
30:44say, among the running backs for the Patriots. Like, what a handful of weeks ago it was Trevor Henderson's going to be miss multiple weeks and then he
30:50played that game. And then now Roandre Stevenson was supposed to get an MRI and miss multiple weeks and he might play in
30:57this game. Weird. Um, but AJ Brown, it's the odd part of this one is it wasn't a new injury. It was just an old injury
31:08that is probably going to linger as we go along here. But you kind of might want to play him in the spots where he
31:14feels healthy enough to start and finish a game because you might not know the next time he starts and finishes. Are
31:20you telling me we're not getting clean Patriots coverage since the Rousini um story? Josh, is that your point?
31:25>> You said that, not me. You said that, not me.
31:28>> Um I think AJ Brown's going to play. Uh and I don't think he's going to be as good as what the spreadsheets are hoping him
31:34to be. Uh I think that he's struggled with his agility uh and that that little twoame sample since coming back and that
31:42led to drops. Um, all that said, they're desperate for him, especially for Mandre and Tayvven aren't going to be out there. Like, you can only do Corey Ker
31:51against the Lions run defense for for so much. And then DJ Reed, their top corner, is out. A lot of the production
31:57against the Lions has gone to like tight ends, but now they get Brian Branch at safety to kind of cover that part up.
32:04You're missing your corner again.
32:05They're still leading in yards per game, passing yards per game allowed on defense. the lines are. I think a lot more of that's going to shift back
32:13towards wide receivers. So, I'm trying to like middle ground. Like all the projections are like AJ Brown's the wide receiver 12 this week and then my eyes
32:20are telling me he's the wide receiver 42 and then I'm going to put him somewhere kind of in the middle. I think he's a
32:25the most classic boom bust wide receiver 23 there is. Excellent matchup here. I I'm leaving the light on for him, but it
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33:27Download the DraftKings Sports app today and follow football wherever the weekend takes you. The crown is yours. Uh I talked about Jaylen Coker already.
33:36Again, if you're getting single high looks, um we're going to see, I think, some at least one or two of the
33:42downfield shots that we've seen Jaylen Cooker hit on a n number of times so far this season.
33:46>> Yeah.
33:47>> Uh anything you want to add?
33:48>> Yeah, dome environment. I think sloppy shootout potential here. He had 60 yards and a touchdown against the Saints uh late last year during his like kind of
33:55breakout. I think he can do something like that again.
33:59Jeremy Bernard is your first Steelers wide receiver, one spot ahead of DK Metaf, who is your second.
34:08Some people might be surprised that Jeremy is ranked straight up ahead of DK, albeit again just one spot, but tell the people why. Well, looking at the
34:15individual matchup, I think is the the starting point here. Number one wide receivers get DJ Turner. And DJ Turner, I think, could go stride for stride with
34:24DK Metaf. And if you can do that, then you're going to beat DK Metaf at the catch point. So, I I wanted to lower DK
34:29Mechaf kind of as much as I can. I started running out of, you know, names I felt comfortable with there. And then
34:34Jeremy's going to get all these safeties and linebackers that we said have been so bad. The other corners haven't been uh that great either this season. Um, so
34:44I just think the matchup kind of funnels the ball towards Jeremy a little bit.
34:47And then also >> if the Steelers can't run the ball as much as they have recently when they've been winning games and then Jaylen
34:54Warren and Rico D been very effective, that might not be quite as easy against Dexter Lawrence and the scoreboard might say, you know, we're down by a touchdown
35:02or two. We have to pass the ball. I think Aaron Rogers can get in the groove and just like hitting the ball
35:06underneath to to Jeremy Bernard. So, yeah, it hasn't been quite as clean the last two games, but there was some big
35:12moments against the Colts and Buccaneers games especially. Um, and I think the scoreboard and the matchup is kind of making me feel like Jeremy Bernard is
35:22going to get extra looks this time around.
35:25>> Do you want them in B tier or Ctier or do you want one in B and one in C?
35:28>> Uh, I like him right here.
35:30>> Okay. Yeah.
35:30>> What about Debo Samuel who seems to be making his return to the field. Uh you have him as your wide receiver 27. I
35:38just want to confirm this. Yeah, he's wide receiver 33 in consensus ring. So you're eight spots ahead.
35:44>> Uh let's go in Ctier because there's just like too much going on. Like I I don't know for [laughter] sure if you
35:49know Debo's got his own injury. Keenan's doing his thing. There's just there's too much here. Um >> yeah, the this matchup's really good.
35:57You got the Cowboys defense. If you guys watch the Cowboys defense, it has not been pretty. Coverage bust tackling issues. uh safety play has been very up
36:04and down. Caleb DS is pretty solid, but their other safety has been really bad.
36:07Their outside corners have been bad.
36:08Their inside corners have been bad. Um and before his injury, he was the wide receiver 13, 17, 61, and wide receiver
36:1814. So, we've had three pretty nice games out of the four games. Now, one of them's like a hook and ladder for a 75
36:25yard touchdown, yada yada yada. But that's also what you get when you're on the 49ers projected for 29 and a half
36:30points. Like I want to like grade this one favorably. I would love a full practice before I get too optimistic though.
36:36>> Yeah, that that's my only concern. I I remember listening to last week's broadcast and you know I thought Demarcus Robinson would go in there and
36:44play a full complement of snaps and then immediately the broadcast said something like >> well Kyle Shanahan told us in our
36:50production meeting that he's 50% so he's only going to play 50% of snaps and I'm nervous that like off multi- week
36:58injuries if Debo Stain was going to do the same thing but if not he could be 100% and we'll be good.
37:02>> Yeah. I hope that like Demarcus had to go out there because the top wide receivers, >> right, >> couldn't and that Debo's coming back
37:09because he's kind of ready where they're like, Demarcus, you got to get out there. I'm sorry, dude.
37:12>> I hear you. Okay, Denzel Boston and Casey Conpion are back to back next for you. Uh Denzel Boston is practicing in
37:20full here on Friday after the toe injury limited him the other day, which is really nice to see. And what was even
37:27nicer is I loved the shorter targets. I mean, there was other than, you know, his downfield outside nod to sideline catch, it was like four yards, four
37:38yards, five yards, seven yards, and eight yards. So, we're seeing the disparity in the air yards between these two guys where the A dot is drastically
37:46get back to almost even. And that's exactly what we want to see.
37:50>> He kind of looks like T. Higgins is like that the kind of comp for Denzel Boston.
37:54Like we'll see if he kind of gets all the way to T. Higgins. Tiggins has been sensational out there. But like I I
37:58think that's like kind of the player he is at this point. Um I I've tried to kind of figure out when
38:05is it a Denzel Boston, when is it a Casey Conpsio, when is it a Harold Fannon, all those guys, >> it's an accurate target in their
38:11direction. That's my answer.
38:13>> I'm the more I look into it, the more I want to stop looking into it. I'm like, whoever rips off the big play and they
38:18can get to the big play in different ways. is like, how am I supposed to predict a Harold Fannon double stiff arm
38:23for 80 yards or Casey Conpsion having a step and then running across the other side of the field for a touchdown or
38:29Denzel Boston coming down with his play?
38:31Like, it's so hard. And then I come to the Texans and if you look at the spreadsheets, the Texans are one of the
38:37worst defenses against wide receivers. I don't believe that's going to be sticky moving forward. Like, this team is way too talented. Demar uh Deikica Ryan's
38:47back calling plays. The edge rushers right now are still playing excellent. I don't trust the the Browns uh tackles right now. Spencer Fono is going to be a
38:55good player eventually, but we're talking about a rookie left tackle here.
38:58I don't trust the quarterbacks under pressure uh at all in this one. So, I was like trying to move these guys as
39:05far as I could down and then I ran out of names.
39:09The only thing that's on my radar is Jonathan Alexander and other Texans B writers have noted that Dell Hunter and Will Anderson and Aziz Alshier were not
39:19seen during the open portion of practice today. So maybe the Texans are hiding them. That's a hamstring for Danell Hunter. That's an ankle for Will
39:26Anderson. That's a groin for Aziz Alsha.
39:29And that's like their three most notable players in their front seven. So, I wouldn't expect all of them to miss, but
39:36if they do, like that totally reshapes that entire Texas defense.
39:38>> Oh, yeah. Because then you're like, "Okay, those coverage bust in the secondary, they have a chance to get there." I'm worried it's like, "And
39:44there goes Willie Anderson for his eighth sack of the game." You're like, "Okay, that game's over."
39:48>> Yep. Okay.
39:51Wandell Robinson is next.
39:53>> Oh, boy.
39:53>> What would you like to say about Wondelle Robinson? Uh, Colonel Tate has been ruled out with his injury.
39:59>> Yeah, kind of concerning. come out of the buy doesn't get a practice in for Cardinal Tate with the shoulder injuries
40:04ruled out here. Um so on the Wandell front obviously this only is possible because Cardinal Tate is not out there over the last you know month of games.
40:14Wandell is the wide receiver 40 in expected points and I think that that's going to go up without Cardell Tate.
40:20We've seen better performances from Cam Ward in the last month. Like you would have to say like this last month has
40:24been the best Cam Ward ball we've seen over his entire career. We got a little bit of like a post buy, you know, rookie
40:30bump for the entire offense in a new scheme and they got a lot of inexperienced players. So, this is kind of a hope and a prayer. And then you get
40:37to the matchup. Jacksonville is the best, you know, rushing defense allowed pretty much this year. And then they funnel passes uh in neutral situations
40:46at a top five rate. Offenses facing them just pass the ball and then they don't pass the ball downfield all that all
40:53that often. You're going to get some quick hitting stuff to Wel Robinson.
40:56We'll see if he can make enough plays to make it matter, but I I do think the targets are going to be there. They're
41:0010-point dogs. PPR scam type of play.
41:04>> Okay. After that, you have Pop Douglas uh is like better. Wondelle Robinson right now.
41:12>> Yeah.
41:12>> Uh I mean, he leads actually the team Hayden with six endzone targets this season season. He has four straight games inside of the top 24. He stays on
41:23a string with his quarterback incredibly well in these second second phase plays.
41:27>> Yeah.
41:27>> So, yeah. Um Pop Douglas is is certainly not a all-around football player, but his connection with Drake Bay is >> pretty damn good.
41:35>> Yeah. The last five games for him have been outstanding. Um now those are largely without AJ Brown, who we're expecting to play here.
41:43Once we get to like this part of the rankings, like picture a long touchdown.
41:47Can you picture that in your head? Can you picture a a seventh reception? And if you can't picture either one of
41:51those, then you just got to keep finding other names to to picture that. And I think that Deario Douglas could do that
41:57because the Lions secondary because the offensive or the running back issues that New England might have in this one.
42:04>> Um chasing points, those type of things.
42:06Um and then we'll see like how good AJ Brown even is. Like there's a chance that tomorrow Douglas is like that that
42:11pass attempt to him is working a lot better than AJ Brown stuff. So we'll see. Uh Jacobe Myers plays a whole bunch
42:18of snaps on the Jaguars that are projected for a ton of points. He has games this season of wide receiver 25
42:25and 16 and 28 and all that type of stuff. So look, he's not the most talented player or second most talented player on the
42:34Jaguars offense, but uh he always has a chance of doing well because of that.
42:39>> Totally agree. Uh Titans allowed the most uh fantasy points to wide receivers, 5 to 20 air yards. That's exactly what Jacobe Meyers was traded
42:46for and extended for to to do. And then now you don't have the safety kind of sitting in the middle of that uh to kind
42:52of prevent that from happening even more often. So it's the same, you know, weighted coin game we're playing with Parker Washington just to a way lesser
42:59extent with Myers because he's not the explosive play threat, not the first read in the progression as often. So you you can do worse uh during by-weeks and
43:10injuries than taking the wide receiver two on a team projected for 28 and a half points.
43:14>> Totally agree. Uh what are your expectations for Keenan Allen in his debut with the 49ers?
43:19>> I loved John Lynch aditt admitting on the radio that they were focused on trading for Josh DS and they watched the
43:26tape and they're like Keenan Allen.
43:28>> Oh, I didn't see this quote.
43:29>> Yeah, this is pretty funny. Uh yeah, they were watching Colts film and then Shanahan said, "What about Keenan?"
43:35>> And then the conversation started two and a half weeks ago from there. So, and then he says, "It's a really good fit in
43:40the offense." I agree. Uh >> Brett Coleman back in I think it was October 19th was like Josh Downs to the
43:4649ers. And I commented I said Keenan Allen Keenan Allen is like Mr. Reliable underneath just gritty type of yards and they'll have Jordan Watkins run deep and
43:56then we'll see how many snaps Keenan Allen's gonna play. I think Keenan's better than Debo is. I'm just not convinced that Keenan's gonna play as
44:03many snaps because the new offense, but it's also Keenan Allen. The other interesting part with the Keenan stuff is he played the Cowboys last week. Like
44:10he's playing the same defense in back-to-back weeks. I wonder how many times that's ever happened in the NFL.
44:16No Joey Porter uh for for Dallas there.
44:18He had nine targets. Wide receiver 21 in expected points. Too many incomplete passes. Uh not necessarily his fault. I don't know, man. I think Keenan I think
44:27Shanahan is just going to love, you know, Keenan being a very very experienced player.
44:33>> Yep. Raises the floor.
44:34>> That's right.
44:35>> Uh and they need that for sure. Okay. I am because I am punishing him after what happened last week. Putting Vlad Mcconi
44:43in the D tier, >> please. Uh, I mean, how do we get guy practices, he's ready to play, and then no reports in pregame activities that he
44:54suffers back spasms and doesn't play a single snap? Well, the Chargers have lost like four or five beat reporters in the last like couple months here. So,
45:02like we could start with that. Who's covering the Chargers would be a great thing. Am I going to have to go do this
45:06myself? I'm right right down the street.
45:08Am I going to have to go uh to Chargers pregame warm-ups to make sure we get the right information? Sounds like a fantasy
45:13punishment at this point for [laughter] a team that has not won. It >> probably is. Um, he didn't practice on Thursday. The Chargers are on Monday
45:21Night Football this week. So, we'll see by then if Lad Mccon is going to play. I would need to see a full practice in.
45:27I'm just I'm getting nervous that Lad McConi is just >> the way he plays is just not great in the NFL. Uh, long term. He's still he's
45:38still very explosive. I have noticed that Lad Mcconi this year stop start make a guy miss like those type of plays
45:45have kind of gone away and that would make sense if you're dealing with all these injuries but also it's like that's
45:50what he does. Um >> do you see the report that the Rams called about him at the trade deadline?
45:57>> That would that would have been fascinating. That would have been fun.
46:00>> Yeah. I wonder why didn't >> he'd ran higher than the Dtier. That's for sure. I guess I guess >> uh Jordan Tyson is playing his second
46:09game in the NFL this week. I talked about Kelvin Banks being back at left tackle. Unfortunately, the Saints are going through some other offensive line
46:16injuries. I don't know if you saw this, but Fuanga, their right tackle, suffered a knee sprain yesterday >> and so he might be out for multiple
46:23weeks and then I think Eric McCoy went down this path. Yeah. And I'm assuming that means like Cesar Ruiz is going to
46:31move over into the center spot.
46:33>> Never what you want. Even David Edwards knee injury limited practice and then Kelvin Banks been limited with and uh with his ankle injury. He's those guys
46:40are probably going to play but you know we just named all five of their offensive linemen right there.
46:44>> Correct.
46:45>> That's that's not good. Um so with Jordan Tyson, we talked about on stats versus film. I thought he did a fine
46:51enough job. He like moves around in a very interesting way. like his feet go out this way like nobody else in in the
46:58league. Um he's going to route some guys up. I think he's going to struggle in other capacities. He's a player to me
47:03very much in development. The Saints are also taking their time with him. He was a distant fourth in snaps at wide
47:12receiver last week. Um this game is very important though for the division. All these division games become way more important. So I do wonder if his snaps
47:19are going to like increase immediately because they're just like looking for for big plays. Yep. Okay, I'm just going to throw a bunch of names.
47:27>> Yep.
47:28>> Out there. Uh, let's go. Khalo Shakir, Jordan Addison, and then the Dolphins duo of Caleb Douglas and Malik
47:36Washington with not Malik Willis at quarterback. Uh, Kannata Mumfield is your first Rams wide receiver. Talk to me through that mindset. I mean, I know
47:48in the game that Puka missed earlier in the season, uh, Kanana Mumfield was the one that saw like 70% snaps. There's
47:54just been a whole bunch of CJ Daniels buzz this week from like Matthew Stafford and company.
47:58>> Oh, okay. So, yeah, I don't even know about that. I was looking at the historical stuff with Canon Mumfield. If
48:03you remove Puka and Dvonte Adams, there's uh about like 80 dropbacks where both of those players have not been on the field.
48:10>> And then what do the targets look like in those? And it's a lot of tight ends production there. like the Higgby Tferg
48:17roll 26% target share Kobby Parkinson 24% target share then Davis Allen at 15% and then you get Kannata Munfield Canada Munfield has a pair of eight target
48:27games one of both of those games where he was the wide receiver too in games where Stafford dropped back 50 times I'm
48:34not expecting 50 pass attempts for the Rams like something's gone very wrong if that's the case here against the Cardinals so I think a pretty desperate
48:41play for Kannada Mumfield but like you do have like this could be a boat type of upside side with him versus other
48:46flex plays. So, it kind of just depends like what you're aiming for in your flex uh this week with him. But,
48:53>> he's going to be out there a lot.
48:54>> And just to update people, when I was on the forecast yesterday and witnessed a cry for help from my friend Matt Harmon,
49:01who picked up 22 Atwell this week in the league, >> he he has since dropped TJ Hawinson for Kalos Shakir. So either we bullied or we
49:10were good enough friends to uh you know not allow Matt Harman to play 22 Atwell this weekend and said he's going to
49:16start Kosha >> in the expert league. I literally don't have a wide receiver three right now and I was praying that I would got get
49:23Khalil Sha off waiver. So you just broke the news to me that I did not battle.
49:27>> Damn.
49:28>> It was a battle. Uh the rest Omar Cooper, Adam Mitchell, Xavier Hutchinson and Tanktell. All right, that's going to do it. Thank you all for tuning in.
49:38We'll be back here Sunday morning start sit show for two and a half hours ahead of kickoff uh alongside your last I
49:44believe morning international game. Uh and then we'll be back in the evening post Sunday Night Football once it hits triple zeros with a game byame recap.
49:55So, thank you for tuning in. Thank you for subscribing and watching. Leave me a comment down below and shout to Farmers
50:00Insurance as always. We'll talk to you guys soon. See you.
