From the episode
Christian McCaffrey touched the ball a bazillion times last year...there's this phrase in fantasy circles called the curse of 370...running backs who touch the ball 370 times or more have an immediate decline in efficiency and production the following year...McCaffrey is entering his age 30 season...he averaged 3.9 yards per carry. I don't see him bouncing back...most of his production is reliant on a ton of receiving work. And now we've got Mike Evans and hopefully a healthy Ricky Pearsall in the mix.
STACKED’s take
RB3 ADP unjustifiable: 413 touches trigger efficiency decline, age 30 decline, and target share dilution.
McCaffrey is being drafted as RB3 but faces significant headwinds: he absorbed 413 total touches last season, triggering the 'curse of 370'—a statistical pattern showing RBs with 370+ touches experience immediate efficiency and production declines the following year. Additionally, McCaffrey is entering his age 30 season with declining efficiency; since arriving in San Francisco, he's been RB30 or worse in true yards per carry in all seasons except 2023, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry last year. His production is increasingly reliant on receiving work, but the addition of Mike Evans and healthy Ricky Pearsall in the mix further diminishes his target share. Loza explicitly states she won't draft him at RB3 because she knows he won't pay off that ADP immediately.
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