Fantasy Focus Football

Tight end reuniting with new Giants HC John Harbaugh, who specializes in coaching mobile QBs like Jackson Dart. Career stats: never exceeded 500 receiving yards or 50 catches due to always having another TE ahead of him (Mark Andrews in Baltimore). Now positioned as Giants TE1 with clear path to volume. If Malik Nabers injury lingers, Likely could be one of the highest-targeted players on the Giants offense. ADP: 12th–13th round. Comparable upside to Dalton Schultz. Rated TE12 heading into season.

Rookie RB stepping into lead role in Seattle immediately with Zach Charbonnet sidelined. Projected to be RB1 for at least half the season; even upon Charbonnet's return, return-to-play does not guarantee return-to-performance. ADP undervalues Price relative to peer Jeremiah Love, partly because Love has superior pass-catching ability and Price did not showcase that in college. Volume projection: 12–14 touches per game, 220+ carries (Mike Clay projection). Seahawks offense built to limit Sam Darnold's pass attempts, favoring ground game. Already receiving first-team reps at OTAs. Going as top-25 RB but has top-15 appeal.

Love is the clear alpha in the Arizona backfield and will give top 12 fantasy RB production. He was drafted third overall at RB by Arizona and has a dual-threat skill set he showcased at Notre Dame. Loza is not doubting his role and expects the Cardinals to lean on him heavily in a versatile way.

Dopp likes McMillan as a late-round option in Tampa Bay, noting he would immediately factor in as the WR1 if anything happens to Chris Godwin, who has had injury concerns in the past. Dopp believes in the Tampa Bay offense and sees McMillan as a beautiful, cheap WR2 option with upside.

Higgins, a 34th overall pick from Iowa State in 2025, has an exciting athletic profile with a 9.63 RAS (Relative Athletic Score) and is a strong ball catcher with a wide catch radius. He finished his rookie campaign third on the team in targets behind Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz, but recorded six touchdowns—the exact same number as Collins. Loza believes Higgins has breakout potential and could catch steam as the season progresses, with the hope he'll pick up where he finished last season at the start of 2026. He's also a strong insurance policy if anything happens to Nico Collins, who has had injury concerns in the past.

Etienne is going in the fifth round, just behind Cam Akers and ahead of Bucky Irving, as a borderline RB1/RB2. Loza is skeptical about his ability to replicate his Jacksonville production in New Orleans but doesn't mind his current ADP. She notes he won't smash the way he did last year but acknowledges fifth-round value for a borderline RB1 is reasonable. Dopp agrees that you know what you're getting with him at that price—no outperformance expected.

Olave has top 15 WR appeal and his ADP has risen from the eighth round last year to a higher position this season, reflecting his elite production. He averaged nearly 17 fantasy points per game, justifying the ADP increase. Loza considers his current ADP completely fair.

Nabers suffered a grade 3 ACL and meniscus tear in his right knee—not a straightforward tear, making surgery more delicate and healing more complicated. Six months post-surgery, he required a cleanup operation due to stiffness in the knee, which is concerning for an elite 22-year-old athlete. Loza notes this is unusual for someone so young and fit, raising red flags about his recovery trajectory. The uncertainty around his participation in training camp is critical because he has drawn only three career targets from QB Jackson Dart and needs reps to build chemistry. Dart ranks 28th in passer rating when throwing past the sticks, which is problematic because Nabers' strength is on deep balls. Additionally, both Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney will draw a handful of deep looks, further diminishing Nabers' upside. His third-round ADP is extremely difficult to justify given these role and quarterback limitations.

McCaffrey is being drafted as RB3 but faces significant headwinds: he absorbed 413 total touches last season, triggering the 'curse of 370'—a statistical pattern showing RBs with 370+ touches experience immediate efficiency and production declines the following year. Additionally, McCaffrey is entering his age 30 season with declining efficiency; since arriving in San Francisco, he's been RB30 or worse in true yards per carry in all seasons except 2023, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry last year. His production is increasingly reliant on receiving work, but the addition of Mike Evans and healthy Ricky Pearsall in the mix further diminishes his target share. Loza explicitly states she won't draft him at RB3 because she knows he won't pay off that ADP immediately.

Liz Loza is on record preferring Jaden Daniels over Joe Burrow if investing in a QB early, citing his rushing upside as the key differentiator. Daniels represents better value than Burrow at a similar draft position.

Burrow has been a top 10 fantasy QB in three of his last five seasons but faces significant durability concerns; he's managed only three seasons with 10+ games played and three with 10 or fewer games. His offensive line injury history is a major risk factor despite Cincinnati's optimism about 2026 improvements. More critically, Burrow offers minimal rushing upside—only 3% of his fantasy production came via rushing last season compared to 12 of the top 15 QBs who scored over 16% on the ground. With 330 total rushing yards over three seasons combined (a rate 12 QBs matched in one season alone), he'll need a meteoric passing season to justify his sixth-round ADP at a position that is extremely deep. Liz Loza is on record preferring Jaden Daniels over Burrow if investing in a QB early, citing Daniels' rushing upside as the key differentiator.

Chigoziem Okonkwo is not considered a top-10 tight end option; while the speaker doesn't mind him, he's deemed 'probably still just a stream' rather than a premium draft target, making him too rich at that tier.

Isaiah Likely is a top-10 overall tight end for 2026 with projected production of 75 catches, 900–1,000 yards, and a handful of touchdowns—essentially what Kyle Pitts delivered last year but at a discount. Now has his own tight end room in Baltimore with Jackson Dart, a quarterback who is 'completely different when throwing beneath the chains,' and is expected to PPR scam his way to a top-10 finish despite being underdrafted.

Tyler Warren is mentioned as a comparison tight end alongside Tucker Craft and Colston Loveland in the context of undervalued tight end options, with the speaker noting him as 'my guy from Penn State.'

Colston Loveland is positioned as a comparable tight end to Tucker Craft in terms of tier and draft value, grouped together as undervalued options at the position.

Tucker Craft is undervalued at his current ADP; he's a top-five tight end who is closer to Tier 2 than Tier 3 but is being drafted as if he's not. Described as 'a machine at the position' and 'a yak monster,' he's a target for loading up in drafts at his current price point.

Identified as a 'potential match made in fantasy heaven' with AJ Brown; suggests strong quarterback-receiver pairing upside and potential for elevated production in 2026.

Identified as a 'potential match made in fantasy heaven' with Drake May; suggests strong quarterback-receiver pairing upside and potential for elevated production in 2026.

Ranked RB9 in current rankings; analyst notes this is a conservative ranking relative to market expectations, suggesting downside risk or concern about McCaffrey's 2026 outlook despite his historical elite status.

Ranked RB9 (outside typical top-7 RB range); analyst avoiding in drafts; 450 touches last season at age 30 with injury history raises durability concerns; similar to Saquon last season—high workload may impact 2026 season; analyst prefers younger players with surer bets; injury history and age make him less attractive than other RB options at his ADP; analyst putting ranking where mouth is despite seeming crazy.

Late-round steal going at pick 163 (outside typical draft range); WR3 in Tampa offense with upside; Mike Evans gone, Chris Godwin aging and not fully healthy; if Godwin misses games, McMillan becomes WR2; crushed it down stretch as rookie (final four games, week 17 unbelievable game); trusted target for Baker Mayfield; costs nothing to throw dart; more meat on bone than given credit for; potential breakout candidate.

Coming off Achilles tear; will take time to recover; will need safety valve (Tyler Warren positioned to fill this role).

Great tight end prospect for 2026; Michael Pittman Jr. no longer on Colts means over-the-middle targets vacate; unlikely to go to Alec Pierce (paid $150M for go routes); Josh Downs likely alternative but analyst expects Tyler Warren to capture those middle-field targets; rookie proved he could handle safety valve role with Daniel Jones (coming off Achilles tear, will need safety valve); excellent value at current ADP; strong prospect despite sophomore slump concerns.

ADP in second round is too early and too rich; not necessarily a bust but positional value not worth it at that draft cost; better tight end options available later in draft; analyst would rather wait and grab TE later and find better positional value in second round.

Better for receivers in ability to add stability than as fantasy QB option; not worth drafting unless in super flex league; other higher upside QB options available.

Rookie tight end with more excitement than Jets' WR2 options; athletic profile supports development as safety valve for Geno Smith; recent rookie tight ends have performed well in NFL; position is much shallower than WR, making late-round flyer attractive.

One of two main Jets offensive weapons analyst is interested in investing in; primary RB target alongside Garrett Wilson.

Primary WR target for Jets; analyst interested in investing in him and Breece Hall as main Jets offensive weapons; Geno Smith provides stability for receivers even if not fantasy-relevant at QB position.

Part of best WR duo in fantasy football from one team (Dallas Cowboys); Cowboys will throw ball a ton; target share may decline slightly if defense improves (unlike last year's poor defense), but not significantly enough to impact rankings; if anything happens to Pickens, Lamb becomes immediate WR1.

Currently going in third round; analyst willing to reach at back of second round depending on league size; bet on himself last year and it worked out; attached to high-octane Cowboys offense with capable QB (Dak Prescott); enough production to support two fantasy-relevant WRs (Lamb and Pickens); ranked as low-end WR1; target share stable even with Lamb healthy (8.6 targets/game weeks 4-6 without Lamb, 8.1 targets/game weeks 7-18 with Lamb); fantasy numbers inflated by TDs while Lamb sidelined but pairing is strong; ADP fair at current price.

Currently RB8 with potential to move as high as RB5; bullish on second-year back in Los Angeles; offensive line back to health; addition of Charlie Kohler (highest-paid blocking TE in NFL) bolsters run game; Mike McDaniel (run game savant) should lift entire run game; every-down skill set positions him well for volume.

Moving to Houston as RB1 after sharing backfield with Jameer Gibbs in Detroit; volume forces rebound—Texans added no competition in draft, leaving only Woody Marks (flashed as rookie but not ready for primary role); projected 15-17 touches per game makes him low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 in deeper leagues; excellent value at ADP 69.9; serviceable every-down back with proven resourcefulness; RB31 in fantasy points per game last year due to limited volume, but scarcity at RB position makes him attractive.

Ranked WR11 with WR5 upside; marriage of skill sets with Drake May (QB4 in deep ball attempts, QB2 in air yards per attempt last year) is ideal for Brown, an elite vertical threat; over past four seasons, Brown has 18 receiving TDs on 20+ air yard throws—more than any other NFL player; will see massive target share with Stefan Diggs gone (Diggs drew 100+ targets last season while managing snaps post-ACL); has been top-13 WR in five of last six seasons.

Adams has been discussed as a potential regression candidate heading into 2026, though specific details of the regression thesis are not provided in this segment.

Taylor has been discussed as a potential regression candidate heading into 2026, though specific details of the regression thesis are not provided in this segment.

McCaffrey has been discussed as a potential regression candidate heading into 2026, though specific details of the regression thesis are not provided in this segment.

Evans, being inserted into Kyle Shanahan's West Coast offense and thrown by Brock Purdy against stacked boxes, will be a big-body red zone weapon with elite touchdown potential if he can stay healthy.

Evans will return to fantasy prominence as the most undervalued and underrated wide receiver on draft day, finishing with the second-most touchdown catches at the position only behind Emeka Abuka, leveraging his big-body red zone value in Kyle Shanahan's West Coast offense.

Evans is the 30th wide receiver being selected and ESPN consensus WR 32, making him significantly undervalued compared to his expected production, with potential to finish as a top-five producer at the position if healthy.

Naylor, the former Vikings WR 3, was signed by the Raiders to a three-year, $35 million deal and proved he could thrive as a vertical threat and red zone weapon, leading the Vikings receiving core in yards per reception and receiving scores while having familiarity with Kirk Cousins.