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0:50What's up, friends? Welcome into Fantasy Focus Football alongside Field Yates and Mike Clay.
0:54My name is Daniel Dopp. Excited to be here today.
0:57Beef and cheese? Yeah, people told us that you smelled, they thought you smelled like Velveeta cheddar cheese, right?
1:02You're right, but I don't know where the beef comes in.
1:05That seems insulting, or is it because I'm beefed up a little bit?
1:09I mean, I've been under the weather and traveling, so I'm a little slack in the last two weeks, but guys, I got my cologne back yesterday.
1:17Oh, great! Did you? Yeah, so I got it back from, you know, the checked luggage on our vacation.
1:22So, yeah, it should be smelling better, not beef and cheese anymore.
1:25Maybe you'll finally have a good fantasy take. People know that, like, the old smell good, analyze good mantra is real.
1:31That's right. Hey, we got a very fun show on tap for you guys today, diving into a little prognostication.
1:37Headlines from the future. We're going to have some fun with that, maybe some bold predictions, just looking ahead and having a little bit of fun with it.
1:44But first and foremost, before we dive into that, a couple of real quick logistical things.
1:49Head on over to FantasyFocusLive.com for our live show.
1:51You can grab tickets there August 20th in New York City.
1:54FantasyFocusLive.com. The entire crew is going to be there, like we always are, having a good time, doing a podcast, and hanging out with you guys afterwards.
2:02So, one more time, FantasyFocusLive.com on August 20th. Also, Facts vs.
2:05Feelings comes out today. Shout-out to Liz Loza. We did a big mock draft on there.
2:10Go check that out. Available here right now on the NFL on ESPN YouTube page.
2:14And shout-out to our buddy Eric Moody. Follow him on social media, at EricNMoody.
2:18And jump in our chat. We love the community that we have in our Fantasy Focus YouTube chat.
2:23And Eric does an unbelievable job of hanging out with you guys, answering all your questions.
2:27And speaking of our buddy Eric Moody, we're going to have a second screen experience on Fantasy Focus Countdown this year.
2:33Used to be Fantasy Football. Now on Sunday mornings, it is now called Fantasy Focus Countdown.
2:37And Eric Moody is going to be doing a YouTube show during that, in case that you guys do not have, excuse me, FFC.
2:44You can go on there and get your questions answered on Sunday mornings.
2:48So, keep your ear to the ground for more news about that.
2:51But you liked Eric in our chat so much, we thought, why not bring him to this Sunday show as well?
2:57Fantasy on all screens, right? That's right. Maybe you have your laptop or your tablet with Eric Moody.
3:02You have FFC on your main TV. You're in the app, the Fantasy app here, setting your lineups.
3:07Looking your lineup. You can do all the things.
3:09That's right. You can do all the things now.
3:12I love it. Breaking news there on the name change for the Sunday morning show.
3:16That's right. Fantasy Football Now, what a run it was.
3:19Fantasy Focus Countdown. It's kind of like the meeting of what we do Monday through Friday.
3:23That's right. What you call many Sunday morning shows.
3:26Of course, Sunday NFL Countdown over on ESPN. We have a great team over there.
3:30But for those of you that like the fantasy stuff, hang out with us over on the Deuce where we get the Deuce.
3:36That's right. Fantasy Focus Countdown. All right. So, which thing are we going to say wrong most often this year?
3:42Are we going to say the H&TN area issue or FFNow versus FFC?
3:46I will say FFNow. We need to have an FFNow jar, I think, that we have to pay into as a part of it.
3:52And an H&N jar, I think. Honestly, what about just one big jar?
3:56Yeah. For everything we do wrong. Like every time you do something.
3:59It's like, yeah. Mike doesn't get paid enough to pay.
4:02Yeah, it's like a curse jar or something like that.
4:05But it's just like a mistake jar. Fantasy Sins jar.
4:08We could each have one like next to our name tags here.
4:11That's right. Every time you make a mistake. Yes.
4:13Every time you mention Christian Watson, you can put a thing in there.
4:17All right. Let's talk about some news. Oh, wait.
4:20You are going to mention Christian Watson. Someone's going to mention Christian Watson later on.
4:24Oh, are they? Not me. I don't talk about Packers receivers.
4:27I'm not allowed. Before we dive into that, our headlines from the future.
4:30We got a little bit of news we want to get into.
4:34Unfortunately, Emeka Abuka limped off the field yesterday. Guys, it has been, we're all in on this kid being the number one wide receiver.
4:40Chris Godwin has fallen way down in our rankings, coming off the board in the mid-30s.
4:45No longer the same guy that he was. How are you feeling about what you're hearing with this Abuka issue?
4:51It sounds minor. We are all in. I am all in to the max.
4:54He's my wide receiver 11 is Emeka Abuka. He's well ahead of ESPN consensus, which I think is why it was over 17.
5:01So I am heavily invested in Emeka Abuka and all things pertaining to him.
5:05Good for you. Here's where I thought we should take this, though, because the early indications are it's not serious.
5:10Yep. And by the way, we still have a month before the Buccaneers play a game.
5:15So we've got a lot of time for him to get right from a minor toe injury.
5:19Here's where I thought I'd take it, though. And I'll toss it out to the two of you.
5:24If Emeka Abuka were unavailable, and I'm not talking about because of this toe injury specifically, but given the number of players
5:31in this wide receiver room, if he was unavailable for a stretch, right now, which wide receiver is most appealing to you amongst the other Bucs?
5:38I would say certainly Chris Godwin is the guy I would draft first.
5:41I still think he has something left in the tank, even if we've knocked him down the rankings quite a bit because of Abuka, mostly.
5:48But Jalen McMillan's not far behind. I mean, he has shown really well so far when he's played.
5:53I don't know if I'm going Ted Hurst just yet.
5:56I think they're going to try to work him in.
5:59He's been the buzz player. He has been the buzz player, and he may have somewhat of a role, but I think,
6:05honestly, he might be a guy who we're drafting late, and then he plays like 12 snaps in week one because they're – Tez Johnson's there too.
6:13Like, they're going to work all these receivers in to some extent.
6:16So, yeah, I think that's the order for me.
6:19Abuka, Godwin, Jalen McMillan, then probably Ted Hurst, and then Tez Johnson.
6:22I would rather have – but one of my most drafted players during our mock draft exercise was Jalen McMillan because he's free at the end of drafts.
6:30We've seen him be really good before when he's gotten a run.
6:33I thought he was going to be good last year until they drafted Emeka Abuka, unfortunately, to be the guy there.
6:39But if anything happens to Chris Godwin, I like him as a wide receiver too.
6:43Either one of these wide receivers. I think he is a clear shot to be a wide receiver too in this offense
6:49for a number of weeks given either Chris Godwin and where he's at or potentially Emeka Abuka injury.
6:54Yeah, I like that because if Godwin does slip a little bit – remember, he kind of fell off last year.
7:00If he's just kind of – An injury last year.
7:03Yeah, I know. But if he's really not the same guy anymore, like McMillan could just become the more targeted player.
7:09He could be their number two pretty close. He's free.
7:11Like, super free. One of the reasons – here's a reason for optimism on Chris Godwin.
7:16And this is going back to last year. And this may prove to be grasping at a straw.
7:21I think the Buccaneers front office is very good.
7:23I think they're very fundamentally sound as well. The Buccaneers have a really good grasp on when to make a play for
7:30a player, when to hold tight on a player, when to part ways with the player.
7:34I think they just do a good job of assessing where guys are at.
7:38Remember last year when Chris Godwin was a free agent?
7:41He got a huge deal, right? I think the Patriots were the team that was even more aggressively pursuing Chris Godwin.
7:47They ended up with Stephon Diggs. The Buccaneers' faith in Chris Godwin last year gives me faith that there's still a good player in there.
7:54But I understand if you guys are not as convinced on that argument.
7:57I just – I want to believe in the upside that I saw from Jalen McMillan when he had some of the
8:03run and where Chris Godwin has been. And part of what I want to see is, given that draft capital investment, what do I think the ceiling is?
8:11Because Jalen McMillan, I think his ceiling potentially could be higher, especially with where I'm getting him based on where I am grabbing Chris Godwin.
8:18Although, Chris Godwin, where is he at? Yeah, and don't forget, too.
8:21Let's find it. This is – you don't – Baker Mayfield's not a guy that runs a lot.
8:26I mean, this – and he's a good passer.
8:29So this is – and certainly when he's healthy, and he wasn't all up for a chunk of last season, there's room for multiple receivers.
8:36So if Abuka were to miss time, I think McMillan – And Godwin have a role.
8:40Exactly. I think we would have them both ranked as a starter.
8:44But again, I think we're getting deep into it here, but I think at the bottom line is we're not really worried about Bucca.
8:50We do expect him to go – If you're drafting right now, perhaps a touch of a bump for Chris Godwin.
8:56But I was just extrapolating this out into the season just because unlike other wide receiver rooms like Indianapolis right now, the
9:02Buccaneers kind of have a lot of options. A lot of guys you like.
9:06Yeah. All right. Just put some numbers on it really quickly.
9:09Chris Godwin coming off the board, 147. Yeah, free.
9:12So that's also free. I didn't realize he was that low.
9:15So that gives me a little bit more love for Chris Godwin because of his cost.
9:19Another bit of news I really quickly want to talk about.
9:22I read in The Athletic a little piece yesterday that made me wonder, do we need to rethink everything we're thinking about the Chicago Bears?
9:29Yesterday, Ben Johnson – again, there's a piece in The Athletic.
9:32Please go check it out – said this. You've got 31 other teams coming to training camp saying, our goal is to win the Super Bowl.
9:40I want more than that, though. I want to have the highest-scoring offense ever, which happens to be the 2013 Denver Broncos.
9:46I know how many points per game they scored, 37.9, and I want to surpass them.
9:50I want shootouts. I want blowouts. Shutouts. What did I say?
9:53Oh, shootouts. Shootouts and blowouts. It's going to be hard to do that when you're putting that pressure on your defense.
9:59Guys, what is this? It doesn't mean anything. At the end of the day, there's still a defense on the other side.
10:05I mean, maybe it makes him a little more aggressive where other coaches maybe wouldn't be as aggressive, but we expect that from him anyway.
10:12This is already one of the best offensive play callers in the NFL, so it's a fun headline for sure.
10:18He's my favorite coach in the NFL. Ben Johnson is period, full stop.
10:21I love this guy. He's awesome. I love it as an NFL fan.
10:25I just don't think it's fantasy as much. We already have a projected.
10:29We already have the Ben Johnson bump in the projections.
10:31Right. I was going to say. Not enough, though.
10:34I'm the only one with Caleb Williams inside the top 10.
10:37This makes me want to put him top five.
10:40Ben Johnson's saying it, man. I think we all kind of agree.
10:43There's no real fantasy impact on him saying this.
10:45What I do believe, though, is I think I love it if I'm a Bears fan because you've got to actually execute,
10:51but I love the confidence that Ben Johnson instills in his players.
10:55I love the confidence he feels within himself. And if I'm a Bears fan, how are you not ready to run through
11:01a brick wall, which I would advise against because I ran through a plastic wall one time and I shattered my shoulder,
11:07so don't do it to a brick wall. But I don't know.
11:10Ben Johnson's my favorite coach in the NFL. Yeah, I get it.
11:14And we have five guys in this offense. We're going to start basically every week.
11:18Yes. So we're already, you know, we're in. We don't need to be more in, I don't think, on the Bears offense.
11:24We're going to start all these guys. I am very, for what it's worth, Liz Loza shouldn't run through a brick wall,
11:30but would like the Kool-Aid man if she had a chance for Ben Johnson.
11:34I know that. She'd be like, oh, yeah. We are anti-brick wall running through on this podcast.
11:39All right. Let's dive into some headlines from the future, my friends.
11:42We're going to start with you. Maybe some bold predictions here.
11:45A little loose on the guidelines. It's headlines from the future field.
11:49That means anything you want it to be. We each brought three to the table.
11:53I'm going to start with you. Yeah, I want to use my first headline as a lesson in emotion management early in the season.
11:59Okay. Headline from the future. This comes the day after the first Sunday of the NFL regular season.
12:04Yep. Why did I use a second round pick on Josh Allen?
12:08Who did the Bills play in week one? Do you guys recall?
12:11The Houston Texans field, Yates. The Houston Texans, who when they played against Josh Allen last year, held him to a grand total of 8.1 fantasy points.
12:19Wow. That was four days after he scored, by the way, 42.7 fantasy points against the Buccaneers.
12:23This just in. Competition matters, right? This Texans defense is going to be nasty.
12:27If the Texans defense did nothing this offseason, except keep the guys that were under contract, I'd be like, they might be the best defense in the NFL.
12:35Instead, they were like, okay, we're going to side read Blankenship.
12:38Really good player from your Eagles, Mike. A good sort of second slash third safety.
12:42They drafted the best run stuffing defensive tackle in the draft in Caden McDonald.
12:46They brought back Jadeve and Clowney just for kicks.
12:49Just for fun. They completely devastated the Bills offense last year.
12:52They completely owned Josh Allen specifically in that game.
12:54I don't think Josh Allen's going to have 8.1 fantasy points, but I think there's a real chance that Josh Allen might
13:00be quarterback 7 in my week 1 rankings. Maybe quarterback 5.
13:04Who knows? But the point is, not quarterback 1.
13:06And the lesson is, just remember that while it is a weekly game, your draft is setting the table for a full season.
13:12Patience needs to be exercised. Josh Allen may have a tough go of it in week 1.
13:17I don't even know. Actually, they play your Lions week 2, right?
13:21Yes, they do. They play their first, I think the first game at the Bills' new stadium is against the Lions on Thursday night football?
13:27I'm not sure when it is, but I'll tell you what.
13:31I think it's Thursday night. It is because Bills fans were sort of frustrated.
13:34Good night. Yeah, yeah. Lions defense, all sorts of question marks there.
13:38Obviously, they've released Terry on Arnold because of off-field stuff, and then their safety room is banged up.
13:43Yes, Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch. Patience, young grasshopper.
13:45Josh Allen may struggle coming out of the gates in week 1.
13:49I would not advise using a second-round pick on Josh Allen because I love the depth at quarterback this year, but Josh
13:55Allen's going to go ahead of where I have him ranked at 28th overall, and I understand why people are invested in
14:01the safest thing in all of fantasy football. It just won't be safe in week 1.
14:05I agree. Start that emotional hedge now because if you draft Josh Allen, you're going to start him week 1, and you
14:11just need to expect not having top-tier Josh Allen like normal because of that Texans defense.
14:16Mike. All right, my turn. I'm actually looking. I might have messed mine up already, so where's the jar?
14:21I need a jar because I think the – well, I'll tell you what I have first, and I'll tell you what I did wrong.
14:28The point stands regardless, so we'll just tweak it a little bit here.
14:32Let field on our side. All right, this is Wednesday, September 30th, 2026, okay?
14:36Okay. This is when this report drops. Following his hot start to the season, Jackson Dart is ESPN Fantasy's top-ranked quarterback against the Titans in week 4.
14:43Ooh. Looks like the Titans play in week 3 against the Giants.
14:47Okay. What I meant was the Cardinals. The Cardinals in week 4, I think, is what I meant to write here.
14:52So put a coin in the jar. That's – Honestly, like – Typho in the paper.
14:57Do we need to consider removing Mike from the podcast entirely going forward?
15:01I think so. Do these kind of errors matter to you?
15:04Because they matter to me. Didn't miss the entire first week.
15:07Got sick three days into the show. At least he showed up, so I appreciate that.
15:11It wasn't looking good last evening, but I got here.
15:14There was an old Bill Parcells quote, one wrong, all wrong.
15:17And basically it was like, if I can't trust you to do everything right, and how am I going to be able
15:23to – if you're going to mess up one thing, how do I know that anything you do subsequently is correct?
15:29I'm embarrassed for my family and everything. So it's painful.
15:32You know who I won't be embarrassed for is Jackson Dart in week 4 against the Cardinals, Mike Clay.
15:37Against the Cardinals. You bring us back in. Yeah, that actually makes more sense.
15:41Not that we expect the Titans defense to be lights out.
15:44But look, the Giants come out against Dallas in week 1.
15:47That's a defense that I think is going to be better this year.
15:51They're in the right direction, but still not an elite unit.
15:54Then they get the Rams, which is a good defense, but that's one where teams are going to be trying to move the ball.
16:00Dart's going to be busy in that game, playing from behind most likely against the Rams.
16:05I think we're going to get good play out of him early on.
16:08He's going to keep delivering with his legs, and he puts together a good game against the Titans in week 3, and then he gets the Cardinals.
16:16And Dart is going to play well enough that we're going to rank him consensus.
16:20QB1 for week 4. This is the season of Jackson Dart's breakout.
16:24Hot take. Hot take to your headline from the future.
16:26I don't buy it. Whoa! So, cold take. Yeah.
16:29My hot take is your take is cold. I'm buying the Rams defense.
16:32Duh. I'm buying the Titans defense, too. Ooh. Yeah.
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17:43Call 1-800-GRAINGER, clickgrainger.com, or just stop by. ...front seven.
17:45John Franklin Myers, obviously Jeffrey Simmons, traded for Jermaine Johnson.
17:48They spent big across the board, right? They reinvested in the quarterback group, Alante Taylor and Cordell Flott.
17:53Not dominant, perhaps, but Robert Sala is... He can coach defense now, that's for sure.
17:57Yeah, it took a little time with the Jets, but yeah, he can certainly turn things around.
18:02But this is a little... Regardless, I think he's going to play well enough.
18:06Absolutely. Like quarterbacks that make a leap and are standout quarterbacks, it's going to start to show up, regardless of the competition.
18:12Then they get Arizona week four. I think he's going to be a consensus top five guy most weeks.
18:17I agree with that. Okay, yeah, I mean, I like Jackson a lot too.
18:21I just, I like the Titans' defense. All right.
18:24Interesting. I think I'm more on Jackson, Darth in the Titans' defense, but I...
18:28My bold prediction, or my headline from the future is also a little bold prediction-y, kind of like Mike Swat.
18:33He's taking a stab here, right? I listened to that Ben Johnson statement, and I thought, how do I not bring this to the table?
18:40Kyle Menungai, after four weeks, a first month of the season, leads all running backs with six rushing touchdowns.
18:46This dude is going to take over as the number two running back in this offense.
18:50We watched him last year as a rookie. Number two or number one?
18:54I think he is as the number two, like the David Montgomery role in this offense, even if DeAndre Swift is still doing things there.
19:01As a rookie, he had 947 yards from scrimmage.
19:03He's good. He had five touchdowns. Even with Swift doing the things there, like, they're going to use this kid.
19:09Right now, and I hear all the stuff that Ben Johnson is saying, I'm just, if they do score, and they score
19:15a lot, I think there could be a lot of touchdown equity for Kyle Menungai in this situation, but maybe most importantly,
19:21the reason why I wanted to bring him up, I'm not really sure about the six touchdowns, but I wanted to bring
19:27him up to talk about him because DeAndre Swift being running back 23, and Kyle Menungai being running back 38, I don't
19:33believe at the end of the season there's going to be a 15-spot gap between these two running backs.
19:38I think Kyle Menungai is going to have enough run, yes, that the gap will be much smaller than where they're being
19:45drafted at right now, so I'm not sure that means that I'm out on DeAndre Swift, it just means that I am
19:51really in on buying Kyle Menungai at this price, running back 38.
19:54I will be shocked if he finishes the season as a running back 38 with all the things that we expect from
20:00this Bears offense and a second year potential leap from him as well.
20:04Okay, a couple things here. That's my headline from the future.
20:07A couple things here. I like the headline from the future here.
20:10ABC originally aired, or airs the new Shark Tank episodes, right?
20:13Yes. So there's a chance that we could probably clip off one of the sharks saying, and for those reasons, I'm out.
20:19JJ Watt, soon to be a shark. We could get JJ's voice because I think that would be a good sounder.
20:25Rather than us saying, for those reasons, I'm out, just having JJ do it.
20:29Have JJ do it for us. It's like Waze, right?
20:32Yeah. Soon to be Hall of Famer for JJ.
20:34That's right. Right. It's fair. I am running back 34, so my gap is already a little bit narrower than the 14
20:41or 15 spot ranking difference that you're talking about right now.
20:44You got to decide where that gap is. I just don't think it should be 15 running backs between them.
20:49So do you think it should be more like RB23 and RB28?
20:53Do you think it should be more like RB20, like a little downgrade for Swift, a little upgrade for Manungai?
20:58Probably closer to like RB25, RB30 to 32 from Manungai.
21:01I would feel better about your take if Swift struggled last year.
21:04But he was really good. I mean, he was very good.
21:07He's still 27 years old. He probably has another year or two of good play left.
21:12Sure. And he was effective as a runner, especially, which he's always been, but in the passing game as well, which is
21:18where he holds an edge over Manungai. So I think if they're both healthy, they'll use both of these guys often like they did last year.
21:25And actually, in terms of carry workload, I have them close between the two.
21:29You can see on the screen I have Manungai at almost 200 carries this year and 26 catches.
21:34So I just don't think And all six touchdowns in the first four weeks of the season.
21:39There it is. Seven total. That's it. So, but here's the thing.
21:42I think when you're setting your lineup, especially in a 10-teamer and probably in a 12-teamer, I don't know if you're going
21:48to think Manungai, I don't know if you're going to want him in your flex.
21:52I think you're just going to have better options, wide receivers.
21:56I don't even think he's an RB2. So I don't know.
21:59I think he has to, he's going to have to take the one job, I think, to be a weekly starter in fantasy.
22:05To be fair, and to your guys' point, Ben Johnson has struggled to get the second running back in his offense involved
22:11in, oh wait, no he hasn't actually. It's been very easy.
22:14No, let's just start six bears then. Let's just start them all.
22:18Like, everyone's going to eat. You guys are kind of at the point though, like you're kind of highlighting one of the realities of fantasy football.
22:25It's like when you're setting your lineup during the week, championship winning teams are off, especially in 10-team leagues where rosters, you
22:31know, there's just more talent to go around. You know, you have players in each of your spots where you're like, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
22:38Some 10-team leagues, and definitely leagues that are larger than that, you kind of have two categories of players.
22:43It's like the guys that you are starting because you want to and the guys you're starting because you have to.
22:49Yeah. I think Monongai fits more into the, you probably have to start him.
22:53I agree with that. Because if he gets to the point that you're starting him because you want to, I think it
22:59means that DeAndre Swift no longer has fit. In a 10-team league, yeah.
23:0312-team, 14-team, I think Monongai can have more flex value just because of the depth of the, you know, the entire roster.
23:09But I think that there's this, there's like a little bit of this, this almost like dissonance because I think Monongai is a good player.
23:16There are a lot of like good football players that may not be good fantasy football players, right?
23:21And Monongai, I think, is already a better football player than he is fantasy football asset.
23:25This year, I think he's going to become a better football player.
23:29I'm not convinced he's going to become an appreciably better fantasy football asset.
23:32and keep this in mind, last year in the games that Swift also played, he averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game.
23:38Yep. The one game Swift missed, he had 29 touches and 198 yards in that game.
23:43So, he's an outstanding insurance running back, but the problem is he's costing you a draft pick in the single-digit rounds.
23:49Like in 12-teamers, he's going to the ninth round right now.
23:52Is he? Maybe in ESPN drafts, maybe he's going a little bit later if you're talking, you know, smaller leagues.
23:57But, yeah, I mean, he's, put it this way, as far as number two running backs go, especially ones that most of
24:03their value is insurance related, he's expensive. He's very expensive relative to those guys.
24:07So, that's kind of the problem with him that I see is he's kind of a guy that's on your bench.
24:13And I've nothing, look, I like high-ceiling insurance running backs, don't get me wrong, but I like to take them later in the draft.
24:20I mean, Ray Davis, like, guy like that, Tank Bigsby.
24:23So, I think right now it looks like, and it may have just been since you last looked at it, he's coming
24:29off the board in the 14th round. So, I think Mike was talking about, yeah, above team leagues.
24:34we should, I feel like we should address this for a second.
24:37Sometimes, I have ADPs on my board, right? Obviously, I have an idea where they're going in ESPN leagues, but you like
24:43to have a good feel for the industry as well.
24:46So, I'll look at our friends at DraftKings, best ball drafts.
24:49I'll look at our friends at DraftSharks. They have a good ADP tool, which I can look at and see where they're
24:55going on other platforms as well and mixed in with ESPN to see like a consensus.
25:00And I'll, I look at it from both of those ADPs in 12 team leagues just to kind of give us an idea.
25:06So, that'll be my perspective when we're talking ADP is like the industry-wide 12 teamers and then you could be like, no, you're wrong.
25:13It's 10 teamers at ESPN. So, got it, got it, got it.
25:16The more times you say that I'm allowed to tell you you're wrong, the better.
25:20I'm fine with that. I'm telling you I'm not, I'm more right than you are is what I'm saying.
25:26Him and Blake Corum right next to each other.
25:28I think two valuable insurance running backs if anything were to happen to the guys.
25:32Yep. Yes. Yeah, by the way, Corum very similar.
25:35I think he's going to eat more into the carry workload of Kyron Williams, but Kyron's still more trusted in pass protection and passing situations.
25:42So, he still has the edge, but yeah, Corum very similar.
25:45All right. We take a couple questions before we dive into our next few from chat.
25:49We got this one. Rick Agro wants to know I had CMC fall to me at ninth in the draft last night.
25:55Well, I'm not high on him, but thought I had to take him there.
25:59Do you have any thoughts? I want to ask the highest guy I know, Mike, your thoughts on CMC, at number eight.
26:05I would take him there every single time. Absolutely.
26:08But Daniel, you were in this situation last night, actually a little later than that, right?
26:12Yeah, I put my money where my mouth is.
26:15I'm in a super flex. I'm in a league with a friend of ours named Matthew, and we are in a super
26:21flex league, so things changed a little bit because of that.
26:24But yeah, in the second round, I had a shot between either CMC or James Cook, and I decided to go with
26:30James Cook, put my money where my mouth is because I'm out on CMC.
26:34I can't draft CMC with where I have him ranked unless I just don't really believe in my ranking.
26:39Exactly. If you took CMC there, you would have to adjust your rankings.
26:43Exactly. I took James Cook over him. Yeah, and again, we had a long discussion about this topic yesterday if you want to check that out.
26:50That being said, like ninth pick for CMC based on what like most drafts are, that is incredible value on Christian McCaffrey.
26:56Even though I am out, I understand like that's a great spot to be able to grab.
27:01That's an amazing value for CMC. I take him at nine every single time.
27:05Yes. I think, you know, personally for me, if it's six, like that's as low as I think I could justify seeing
27:11him go, and it might be five given what we talked about yesterday with Puka.
27:15Like for me, my top 160, the first six players are number one, Bijan, number two, Jameer Gibbs, number three, CMC.
27:21So for me, he's third overall. Fourth, sixth is Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua, and JSN.
27:25So if you get McCaffrey at nine, that to me is a dramatic value.
27:29Great job. All right, next question we have from our chat.
27:32This one comes from Brian Gould. Am I crazy to like DJ Moore over Tee Higgins given his new circumstances?
27:38Wide receiver one in Buffalo with Josh Allen or the wide receiver two in Cincinnati?
27:42No, I don't think so. I don't think it's crazy.
27:45It would not shock me if Moore bounced back and had a good year and beat Tee Higgins, but I don't think
27:51you need to do this just because we did see DJ Moore dip last year for sure.
27:56He fell away to 35th. His target share was a career low.
27:59So obviously he's going to Buffalo. Situation should be better there for him and open up more targets, but at the same
28:05time you're comparing him to Tee Higgins who when that guy is active, he's an elite touchdown scorer and one of the best offenses in the NFL.
28:13Not an offense that's as pass heavy as it was a couple years ago.
28:17They balanced it a little bit, but they still like to lean pretty heavily on the passing game.
28:22So for me, I have a pretty big gap actually.
28:24I have Tee Higgins. Where do I have Tee Higgins?
28:2722 and DJ Moore at 28. So that's a gap of six.
28:30It's not a huge gap obviously, but it's not a huge gap.
28:34I don't think it's crazy. I feel more comfortable with Higgins.
28:37I think I agree with field. I don't think it's crazy.
28:40The part that gives me the hang up is again, just looking at our ESPN ADP.
28:44When I see DJ Moore, you just, I wouldn't draft DJ Moore where I would be drafting Tee Higgins because I'm about a round and a half late.
28:52I'm not going to reach that much on DJ Moore.
28:55So I think between these two, I would have to go with Tee Higgins because I just don't think DJ Moore is worth that investment that early.
29:03Unless Tee Higgins falls and then if Tee Higgins falls, then I'm fine with that.
29:07Brian, I don't think it's crazy. I think these guys are comparable level talent.
29:11I think Tee Higgins is a slightly more talented player, but DJ Moore is a very talented guy going to familiar offense with Joe Brady.
29:18These guys obviously both have elite, elite passing quarterbacks.
29:20The difference is DJ Moore maybe not as talented, but maybe has more of a chance to be wide receiver one.
29:26Tee Higgins, the clear wide receiver two. So I don't think it's crazy, but I have Tee Higgins ahead of DJ Moore.
29:32Do I think you're insane? Would I laugh at you?
29:35I would not laugh at you. Which one, just if you had to say, hey, one of these wide receivers is going
29:41to have a 30% target share at the end of the season.
29:44Do you think there'd be more Tee Higgins in that Bengals offense?
29:48In these schemes, neither. Unless somebody got hurt. 25, 28?
29:50What's high in these schemes then? I think Higgins could get to like 23 or 24 and honestly, I think that's probably
29:57the same for Moore to be honest. Really? The way the Bills offense works and they use, you know, they're going to use guys.
30:03You can't, when you're doing projections for offenses, you can't just look at the headliner fantasy guys.
30:08You have to consider how often do they throw to Dawson Knox or Jackson Hawes or the fullback or what's the target
30:14you're going to be to the running back position?
30:17Do they like to spread it around to wide receivers?
30:19All those things are important. So I think with those two guys, that's probably their ceiling.
30:24Barring an injury to like a Javon Chase. And honestly, Higgins will probably be at like 20 and DJ Moore probably at
30:30like 20, 21, somewhere in that range. Okay. We got one more question here from chat.
30:34This one comes from Thrivell. Who should I keep?
30:37Tedderola McMillan for a fifth round pick, Javante Williams for an eighth round pick, or Travis Achan for a ninth round pick?
30:43I would have said it wrong again. I have to fix my brain.
30:47This feels easy to me though. Achan for a ninth?
30:49Yeah. That's where I'm at too. Yeah, definitely. I mean, I have Achan and Javante right next to each other.
30:55So you get a full round discount. I'd go Achan at nine.
30:58Yep. Yeah. I think those two are close because it's one round apart and I do have Javante ahead, but it's close
31:05enough that I'm going to take the cheapest one.
31:07And honestly, where's Tedderola going? He's going around the third round.
31:10Yeah. If the keeper you would give up is identical to where they're going or very close to it, that's almost never
31:16the answer unless you have just bad options. So yeah, take the big running back.
31:20Where's he going? It's going to be confusing. Same, Achan.
31:23It's going to be confusing. Sorry, where's Tedderola going?
31:26But it's good to know where you want to go.
31:28You would go Achan as well. Yes. Tedderola McMillan coming off the board, 41st.
31:32So top of the third, fourth round in 12 teamers.
31:35Yeah, Javante at 38. It's going to be confusing to talk about, to say Achan.
31:39We're talking about Achan and Javante Williams, but we're talking about Travis Achan.
31:43Travis Achan, yeah. That's going to be a thing we're going to have to get used to for sure.
31:48What if Trevor Achan becomes a lead guy in Carolina?
31:51Did he come out and say, I want you to call me Trevor Achan, or did he say, I would still like to be Trevor Etienne?
31:58I'm assuming that Travis spoke on their behalf, but I could be wrong.
32:02Okay. Yeah, he's a guy. I would, there was a point this offseason where I was like, should we be talking about him a little bit?
32:09Because there's so much uncertainty in the Carolina backfield and everyone's going right to Jonathan Brooks, but I loved Trevor Achan in college.
32:16He was super effective, but there's been no hype there at all.
32:19It doesn't sound like he's making much noise in that running back room, but fourth round pick last year or so.
32:25All right, let's keep this train moving. Field Yates, headlines from the future, back to you.
32:29Derrick Henry eventually realizes that history cannot repeat itself.
32:32Wow. As Derrick Henry bucks recent trends and finishes as the NFL's leading rusher.
32:36Wow. This is a decent trivia. You guys probably already know the answer because I put it on social media yesterday, but
32:42over each of the past four seasons, Derrick Henry has finished as the second leading rusher, exactly second in each of the last four seasons.
32:49Second, second, second, second. I'll take that again. And then I think five years ago he finished like sixth and the year prior to that he finished first.
32:56Did you say here's a trivia question and then just give us the answer?
33:00Okay. I did see you post that. I did.
33:03Not good. Not good by me, but whatever. Damn it.
33:06Derrick Henry is going to finish as the NFL's leading rusher.
33:09I love it. Point in the jar. Sorry. I am higher than everybody here on Derrick Henry, both in our, I'm higher
33:15than everybody here on Derrick Henry, both in terms of my running back rankings.
33:19I have him as RB7 and my overall rankings.
33:21I have him as the 11th ranked player in fantasy this season.
33:25Overall, not talking just running backs. I'm talking quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends included.
33:29I'm very optimistic on this Ravens offense. Very optimistic on Derrick Henry.
33:32I've mentioned this factor a few times now. I love their schedule coming out of the gates.
33:37Mike has an amazing, and I mean amazing, tool that lays out the player's projected schedule by position, right?
33:42So who has the toughest matchup for quarterbacks this year, running backs, wide receivers, and the inverse who has the easiest one.
33:48You can rely on data like that and it's very valuable.
33:51I like the schedule for Derrick Henry and I know that he's going to have the same limitations this year as every
33:57other year, which is catching passes, but I don't know, man.
34:00I just feel like every year we get excited about these shiny objects and then we forget about things that are damn good.
34:07He is built forward tough. Yeah. A couple things.
34:09First of all, at strength, the schedule chart, we're going to, new this year, we're going to have this PDF on the
34:15site where it's going to be by the week.
34:18So it'll show the past, like each week, who they played and how hard that was.
34:22So you can see if like a player had a hard schedule so far, and then you're going to be able to look at the future as well.
34:30We'll have that for each position, defense, kicker, everything.
34:33So I'm really pumped to do that. Kicker? Kicker as well.
34:36Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. And also I'm looking at, I have this, you know, this PDF where I have like all the projections for the entire NFL.
34:43You can get that over at ESPN.com. I'm looking at my projected rushing leaders for the season and guess where Derrick Henry is?
34:50First? Second. Two again. Behind. Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor just ahead, then Henry, James Cook, Sean Robinson, Jameerah Gibbs are the top five there.
34:57By the way, this is amazing. It's like a great glimpse behind, or peek behind the curtain here.
35:02Prior to the show, Daniel and I were talking about things like pressure washers.
35:05That's true. And Mike is sitting there updating his PDFs about things.
35:09That's accurate. Darren Waller signed with the Panthers. Like we had to get it in there.
35:13Kicker schedule, strength of schedule stuff. And we're sitting there and I'm like, Daniel, like about how far off the ground, like what solution do you use?
35:21You know, like, look, I had a whole, you're an engine.
35:24You're a machine. I moved in some capacity three off seasons in a row working on the new house this year.
35:30Like I've done all that stuff. I'm on the field.
35:32You're done. I'm not much tired for now. A whole summer of sweating and getting dirty outside working on the yard and fixing sheds and everything.
35:40So anyway. Anyways, I'm very optimistic on Derek Henry.
35:42I want to continue to say that. He'll be one of my guys when it feels favorite drops out.
35:48I've said, you said fixing sheds like with a really, you emphasized, I got nervous there.
35:52I don't know. I'm fixing stuff. Don't worry about it.
35:55Just keep going. You're tired. Don't worry about it.
35:57What's your take, Mike? My take is, all right, here's the headline.
36:01Monday. We're going to January, right? Christmas is past us.
36:03New Year's is past us. It's January 4th, 2027.
36:06A regular season star, Jalen Hurts, third consecutive Dunn Sinks fantasy teams in the playoffs.
36:10And here's where we're going to get into strength of schedule because Jalen Hurts is one of the most fascinating regular fantasy
36:16leagues versus best ball fantasy leagues, especially. This is especially where this matters.
36:20Players I've seen in a long time because here's the thing.
36:23Eagles quarterbacks, you were just talking about strength of schedule.
36:26They have the easiest, Eagles quarterbacks have the easiest schedule this season for quarterbacks in fantasy.
36:30Weeks 1 through 14, it is easiest. Weeks 15 through 17, it is fourth hardest, arguably hardest because here's the schedule.
36:36Again, this is after as light as it gets through the fantasy regular season.
36:40Weeks 15, Seattle. That's the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
36:43That's tough. That's at home, but that's brutal. Next week, they play your Texans.
36:47They'll go at home. Already are like out. But let's just say you survive, you get to the last week of the
36:53season, they go all the way out to San Francisco, which that's not as elite of a defense, but that is still a tough situation to be in.
37:01You got to get to the final before you worry about the final.
37:04I have, I mean, in best ball, I crossed him off.
37:07Like I'm not, even if I get to the playoffs, that can't be my quarterback.
37:12And it's going to be tough for the whole Eagles offense, obviously.
37:15So I think that hurts if you draft him.
37:17You're going to feel pretty good during the regular season in this new look Sean Mannion offense, but come playoff time, you
37:24better have another option because it's going to be, you have a good chance to have a couple duds in there.
37:29Funny because I thought you were going to say like the teams that I thought you might pick from, like I think
37:36there's a world in which the Ravens are a really good defense.
37:39The Patriots are a really good defense, but I could also see a world in which they're both closer to average, right?
37:45Yeah. Like Seattle and Houston are going to be elite.
37:48Yeah. Like there's just major injury issues. Yes. Like if half the roster retires, maybe they won't be elite, but otherwise they're going to be elite.
37:55So that is this is one of the most, the wildest splits I've ever seen between regular season and playoffs.
38:01I mean, the Eagles are in a tough spot.
38:03Just a quick pay Mike for those that don't know, because I do realize that, you know, we've been doing the show for a long time.
38:10They're probably jokes that sometimes people are like, I always hear them say that, but I don't know what it means.
38:16I think probably a lot of our audience knows what best ball means, but there are probably some people that are watching
38:22and they say, they hear us mention best ball.
38:25We'll eventually reference the Scott Fishbowl. What is best ball?
38:28Yeah. So best ball is, means you draft your team and then you can't touch it the rest of the season.
38:34So what happens is you feel it's a deeper pool of players you draft.
38:37So you'll draft like 20 players instead of our normal, like 16.
38:41And then each week, if you have say three quarterbacks on your roster and one quarterback slot on your team, the highest
38:47score of those three gets plugged in. You don't plug a starter in.
38:51You don't say your lineup. It's just automatically based on your highest scores.
38:54Yeah. So the problem is if the fantasy playoffs roll around and you're getting duds from Jalen Hurts and you only have
39:00one other quarterback who may not even be healthy at that point because that's a big issue in best ball is you can't make transactions.
39:07No waivers. Yeah. No waivers. Yeah. So you're just going to have to deal with him as your quarterback.
39:13No trades? If you're trying to break a tie, no trading, no waivers, no anything.
39:17Actually, good timing on that because yesterday we published part two of the playbook and in there I'd go through all the
39:23different types of formats people play and how you should adjust.
39:26Of course, best ball is addressed in there. Actually, I believe I specifically mentioned this example as a difference between best ball
39:32and our knockout leagues as well because knockout, it's the opposite.
39:35Yeah. You should be more invested in the Eagles because if you keep surviving through the regular season, you're going to be
39:41Daniels off waivers at some point if that team's eliminated so it's less of a concern.
39:46So it's funny how, you know, know your format.
39:48All these formats are different and you have to know these things before you go into a draft.
39:53If you hear people in the industry, I think Daniels talked about this where he's like, yeah, I did 32 best ball drafts this summer.
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41:35The reason why is there's no maintenance once the drafts are over.
41:39Correct. Like, you've done this and you just let the chips fall however they fall.
41:43That's why, like, we are sickos, but you're less of a sicko if you do 32 best ball drafts.
41:48Best ball drafts is different. Yeah, it's a one-stop shop to get your team and then you see how it goes.
41:54I love best ball drafts because I also look at them as market research in the offseason just to see where people are at.
42:01Who are people really high on? Who's the vibes that people are drafting early and kind of where does everyone fall?
42:07Which is very different than season long, but I just like having it as another tool in the back of my head.
42:13Yeah, it's similar. I mean, I use very similar draft board for those leagues, but you're right.
42:17That's where I kind of found out I was like, wow, I'm really high on Michael Pittman Jr.
42:22The guy's the top of my queue for every draft that I do.
42:26So he's my most drafted player. You could kind of figure out the guys you really like.
42:31That's interesting. Really high or like really, really high?
42:33Extremely high. Well, I am also quite high on Michael Pittman Jr.
42:37because I've got a headline from the future about Michael Pittman Jr.
42:40Stop stealing my Michael Pittman thunder. At the halfway point of the season, Michael Pittman Jr., top 20 wide receiver besides, despite
42:46being drafted outside the top 30 of the position.
42:49Here's the thing. I'm just going to, this is anecdotal.
42:51Guys, just hear me out, okay? Aaron Rodgers has been in the NFL for 20 years.
42:5621 years, right? A lot of years. Something like that.
42:59Came into the league in 2005. It's 2026. Last year, he averaged 5.8 air yards per target.
43:03That was the lowest of his career. And it's not even close.
43:07That was awful. He does not throw the ball downfield.
43:10Kenny Gainwell is gone. Kenny Gainwell, his favorite wide receiver.
43:12You know what Kenny Gainwell's average depth of target was last year?
43:16Negative 0.2. Well, that's normal for running back. For a running back, yes.
43:19Often they're negative. John O'Smith, the number three, not including DK Metcalf, because we know what DK Metcalf's air yards per target.
43:25We know his ADOT is down the field. Everybody else was like four and a half or under.
43:30All those tight ends. It was terrible. Arnold Washington.
43:33And so I'm in a spot now where Aaron Rodgers isn't going to push the ball downfield that much more.
43:39Michael Pittman Jr. has shown how good of a safety valve he is in the middle of the field.
43:44I believe that he is in a massive spot just to crush early from a volume perspective.
43:49So again, this is a bold prediction. Having fun with it because I also love Michael Pittman Jr.
43:54I don't think it's bold. I don't. I it's going to be tough for him to be a top 20 wide receiver
44:00because there's so many good wide receivers. But I believe the volume he's going to get.
44:04He may not have some like really sexy deep games, but he could have a lot, a lot to eat.
44:10Yeah. A lot of targets, just like he got in Indianapolis.
44:13And he's been a top, what is it? A top 30 fantasy, top 25 fantasy receiver for the last five years.
44:19Yes. Kind of quietly. Yeah. I expect a lot of target volume.
44:22His, the knock on him is he doesn't score touchdowns.
44:25Correct. That's been the problem. And that might not change with still a good group of tight ends there.
44:30You know, two good backs, obviously, of DK Metcalf is one of the premier end zone target leaders in the NFL.
44:36So that might be tricky. You might get five touchdowns out of him, but I think you get a lot of catches.
44:42Wide receiver 38. So quite a bit lower than 38.
44:45Yep. You're at 29. Mike is at wide receiver 30.
44:48If I'm reading this right, I think there's a decent chance that Michael Pittman Jr.
44:52is consistently ranking ahead of wide receiver 38 for me during the weeks of this season.
44:56Right. The reason why I'm lower though, is that there are players that are somewhere between 29 and 30 and 38 that
45:02I think just have a higher market share of, of, of like top 15 or top 20 upside than him.
45:08Right. So it's, he to me is more, much more of a floor play than he is a ceiling play.
45:13And I'm just less invested in the floor plays than I am the ceiling.
45:17It's tough to be a ceiling play if you're not scoring a lot of touchdowns.
45:22I guess so, but he's finished top 20 four times already.
45:25And I believe that's four times in the last five.
45:27Four of the last five years he's been a top 20.
45:30800 plus yards in five straight seasons now. Like, I think he's fine.
45:34More, more of a floor than a ceiling. I'll give you that, but he does end up top 20 because he just
45:40keeps, he's one of them just like solid guy and where he's going in drafts again, eighth round, like give me that all day.
45:47Yeah. I'm a little concerned. I mean, I'm just not as optimistic.
45:50I like ceiling plays, right? I mean, for those reasons, there's a time and a place for all these guys.
45:56Yeah. For that reason, my final headline from the future.
45:59Bring it. And no, I am not my Clay Jr.
46:01Junior or the third? No, I'm junior. I'm like Michael.
46:04That's why I have claim over Michael Pittman Jr.
46:07Oh, we're the Michael Jr. Here we go. I have not been hacked by Mike Clay Jr.
46:11For the first time in his career, Packers wide receiver Christian Watson surpasses a thousand receiving yards.
46:16Mike Clay shakes his head in disbelief. And for those reasons, I'm out.
46:20I should have stayed the course. I was talking about this guy for years.
46:24I was talking about this guy before it was cool.
46:26I was talking about this guy before Amon Ross St.
46:29Brown did a headstand. It's true. Which is Daniel's awesome t-shirt he is wearing right now.
46:34That's right. That happened against the Packers, by the way.
46:37I think it happens. I've got him as wide receiver 29.
46:40Daniel's got him as wide receiver 39. Mike has him as wide receiver 37.
46:43This is the perfect encapsulation of what I just described.
46:46Right? You guys are higher on Michael Pittman Jr.
46:49I'm higher on Christian Watson. You could tell me, hey, Field, why don't we worry about breaking like 700 receiving yards before
46:55we break 1,000 receiving yards in a season? I hear you.
46:58That's fine. I thought he was awesome down the stretch last year.
47:01Flat out awesome. And I know that, you know, there's going to be a couple lemons mixed in there because Jaden Reed's
47:07going to have a week or Matthew Golden or Tucker Craft.
47:10I feel that. I'm buying the Christian Watson breakout.
47:13I don't see much. I didn't see much difference in him last season from a fantasy output perspective because the guy was extremely boom bust.
47:2018 plus fantasy points four times. Average under eight fantasy points per game in his other six games.
47:25Definitely worried about that. Not necessarily changing and here's a trivia for you guys.
47:29How many career top 40 fantasy seasons does Christian Watson have?
47:32How many years has he played? Four. Four? Four.
47:34No, he's zero. Zero. Yeah. He hasn't even finished top 40.
47:38We all have him ranked top 40. Let's get him there first.
47:41Is that stat when you say that? Is that stat total points or per game?
47:45I think it's probably, yeah, I think it's a capsule I wrote many months ago but yeah, I think it's probably total
47:51points but it can't be much better than that.
47:54No, no, no. I agree with you. I'm buying.
47:56Yeah, I don't know why. That's all right. That's a good one here.
48:00All right. You know what? I like it. I got a little board bet here.
48:04By the way, Christina, producing the show, does a great job in the control room today.
48:08Are we tracking the board bets yet? Oh, we are.
48:11Okay, good. They are tracking the board bets. Good, good, good, good.
48:15All right, here we go. May I propose a board bet?
48:18Always. Me versus the two of you. Always. Okay.
48:20I say that Christian Watson outscores Mike Clay Pittman Jr.
48:23this year. Wow. Wow. I'll take that. Okay, I'll take Pittman.
48:26Yeah. Great. All right. All right. Give it to us.
48:29Start us off. I say Christian Watson outscores Mike Clay Pittman Jr.
48:32in fantasy points this season. And I say Michael Pittman Jr.
48:35outscores Christian Watson in fantasy points this year. Put it on the board.
48:39Let's pull that up too. I wonder if the poll would, I mean, listen, if you guys want to win, you'll side with me.
48:45If you want to finish in sixth place, you guys will finish with Mike and Dan.
48:50I got to be honest, guys. I have a 197 to 186, so it's not like this big gap by any means, but.
48:56Just saying, we're your nine spots apart in rankings.
48:59That's pretty notable. Yeah. I want to challenge everyone else out there.
49:02I just had an oddly intimate moment with my friend Mike Clay where we stared deep into each other's eyes and said
49:08the exact same words for a full sentence and a half.
49:11Like, it was a long time. You should do that with someone at work because I feel some things now that I didn't feel like 15 seconds ago.
49:19Yeah, we have a special connection. We really do.
49:22We really do. We're getting back in a rhythm here.
49:24I'm feeling it. This is the season. I really do.
49:27Jeremiah Love You, I think is what it is.
49:30All right. Well, then maybe my next future headline should be about Jeremiah Love.
49:34How about that? How did you know? I didn't.
49:36That's just how we're best friends. Wow, I knew.
49:39These are in sync right now. Well, let's go to one week later than my prior regular season.
49:44Okay. Or my future headline. Monday, January 11th, 2027, Jeremiah Love cements a top five fantasy campaign by reeling off his fourth
49:50straight 100 plus yard game for the Arizona Cardinals.
49:52I've talked about him basically every day. I've been on the pod so far this season.
49:57I expect a big season from him. And just to put a little bit more on this, the reason why I think
50:03he's going to finish so strong is the schedule.
50:05Arizona does have a very hard overall schedule. Yes, they do.
50:08But they have a buy-in week 13. Then they get the Jets, the Saints, and the Raiders before they play the four.
50:15That's the fantasy playoffs and they have the 49ers in week 18, which who knows?
50:19Teams are resting players. I don't think Love will be resting at that point, but the 49ers very well could be.
50:25So good. I think he gets a really strong finish to the season.
50:28Could be a league winner. Absolutely in fantasy. And you know, I love this guy.
50:32Yeah, we do. And I hear you, Mike. And I love, we all love Jeremiah Love.
50:37I've expressed my skepticism before. I'm just a little worried that it may not matter if you make this heavy investment in Jeremiah Love.
50:44This is not exactly what you were describing with Jalen Hurts, but you got to get to the playoffs for the playoffs to really matter.
50:51The opening of the season does scare me a little bit.
50:54That's a tough schedule. Chargers on the road. Seahawks don't like that one there.
50:5749ers not totally spooked by that one. The Giants not totally spooked by that one.
51:02But just in the first seven games, you've got the Seahawks, Chargers, Rams, Broncos.
51:06That's not easy right there. It's going to be tough, but he's going to be busy.
51:10One of the hardest parts about this conversation, I think for me, and I'm projecting a little bit as to what I
51:16think others in the industry and just fantasy players think.
51:19Yep. Part of why I feel the way I feel about Jeremiah Love has nothing to do with him and it's straight
51:25up scar tissue from another rookie and running back last season.
51:28Yeah, for sure. If Ashton Gentey had finished as a top seven running back in the offense that we knew was going
51:34to be bad, I think we would all just have more optimism on like, we just watched this kid do it.
51:40I think Jeremiah Love can also do it. But my counter to that is we've seen...
51:45Take one Barkley is the best pathway for... I'm just going to use...
51:48Yeah, I'm going to use this stat again just because I want to reinforce something, which is that the last nine running
51:54backs selected in the top 12 of the draft finished top 12 as a rookie.
51:58Nine straight did that. Yep. And if you're picking in the top 12, usually your team's not that good.
52:04And that was the case for a lot of these running backs who finished top 12 and all of them have, including Gentey.
52:10So, and again, I expect... Gentey's worst case scenario, I expect it to be better, which is why I'm higher on Love than where Gentey finished last year.
52:18Sure. I know Gentey was boom-bust, but he did pick it up after that slow start last year and had plenty of big games.
52:25I think Love is just... He's a really good talent.
52:27We've seen these high pedigree, heavily invested running backs get huge workloads and be highly effective as rookies.
52:32And again, the guy can pass protect, he can catch the football, he can run.
52:37Man, I'm just... I think he's going to have a huge season.
52:40I think you've got a lot of people that may be doing some emotional hedging, not because of Jeremiah Love, but because of what happened last year.
52:48You're just going to have to work through it.
52:50You're going to have to help the people see the things that you see, Mike Clay.
52:54And by the way, where he's going in drafts too helps his cause.
52:58It does, right. Across the industry, he's at that 2-3 turn.
53:01And for me, that's an auto-click. Gentey was much higher of a draft pick.
53:05Exactly right. Gentey was like sixth overall. Yes. So that part is fair.
53:09I'm just trying to get you guys emotionally prepared for when Christian Watson has 2,000 receivers this year.
53:14Dude, I hope he does because I'm taking all the Ws if that happens.
53:18I was right all along. Matthew Golden too. Yeah, you remember.
53:21Never wrong. Just early. Exactly right. All right, my last one here and this one hurts my heart.
53:26But after our heated Matthew Stafford conversation yesterday, I wanted to bring this to the table as a highlight.
53:31Despite Jared Goff being the only quarterback with four straight seasons of 4,500 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns, he still finishes
53:37outside the top 12 in fantasy, highlighting how unbelievably difficult it is to be elite at quarterback when you don't use your legs.
53:43Four straight seasons of 4,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.
53:46He's done that three years in a row. And he's still barely been a top 12 quarterback.
53:51The thing that's most infuriating, he'll have these like splash weeks where yeah, he'll put up 25, 27, 28 points because they do that.
53:58But then the weeks he's unstartable. He is just unstartable.
54:00So, this is one of those things just like we talked about with Matthew Stafford.
54:05I talked about this with Jared Goff a little bit.
54:07Stafford's in a better position than Goff, but it is so hard to be a good fantasy quarterback even when you are
54:14an elite passer because if you don't utilize your legs, you're just leaving so much on the table for us.
54:19Let me give you, go ahead Mike. I was just going to say to your point, in fantasy points per game those
54:25three seasons, he finished 15th, 7th, and 12th. Okay.
54:28So, that's, yeah. One of them he got up to 7th but he just doesn't, his ceiling is seven or eight.
54:34Yeah, that is the ceiling. He's not going higher than that.
54:37Yeah. So, reasons for optimism here. Let me do a little bit of math because this is actually insane.
54:42By the way, the schedule is the reason for optimism.
54:45I have them with the easiest schedule. Oh, oh, the books agree.
54:48Yes. The acting sports book has the Lions is, let me just do some math here.
54:53Hold on, you guys talk for a bit. We'll talk a little bit.
54:56This might be, one, two, it's, it's not always a good thing to have an easy schedule because you want, you want those shootouts, right?
55:03Especially for Jared Goff, you want him to be throwing four touchdowns.
55:07If they're just crushing everyone every week, they're going to run in the fourth quarter.
55:11Oh, yeah. You know, wait. So that could be something that limits his passing upside, but their schedule, he's got to do
55:17a lot of damage in the first half, put it that way, but it's possible because the schedule is late.
55:22This is freaking wild. Yeah. The Lions are favored in 14 of their first 15 games.
55:27That's, they play both the Bears and the Packers to conclude the season on the road and they're small underdogs in both those games.
55:34On the road. Let me just give you some of the early season matchups that would allow us to see a gigantic
55:40start for Jared Goff and Amundrons and company. Home to the Saints.
55:43Yep. At the Bills, Thursday night football. Home to the Jets.
55:46At the Panthers. At the Cardinals. Jets, Panthers, Cardinals.
55:49Home to the Packers, that'll be tough. Home to the Lions, that'll be tough.
55:52Nope. We are the Lions. Sorry. Home to the Vikings, that'll be tough.
55:56got it. Yep. At the Dolphins. In Germany against the Patriots.
55:59Home to the Buccaneers. Home to the Bears. At the Falcons.
56:02They play some good defense. Home to the Titans.
56:05I mean, this is insane. This is, and this is what happens.
56:0814 of 15 games. This Detroit Lions offense scored 481 points last season, most in the NFC North, and they finished with the fourth place schedule.
56:15Their offense is in a spot to smash, and like you were saying, if we're talking about Jared Goff needing to do
56:21his damage in the first half, like Jameer Gibbs, like, should we be more in on Isaiah Pacheco as like a down-the-stretch guy, guys?
56:28Come on! All right, we'll get there. I'm working on it, guys.
56:31I don't think it's going to be, like, there are some bad defenses in there, but not bad teams.
56:37Including maybe our own. Fair. The Lions might have some struggles.
56:40I think their defense on paper should be good, but the problem is they have those injuries in the secondary.
56:45We don't, both safeties, are they going to play week one at this point?
56:49I don't know. It doesn't look good. Between those two things and then obviously losing your starting corner.
56:54That might help us in fantasy, though, if they're getting lit up in the secondary early on.
56:59Part of why I love sports is the stories that, well, I mean, I guess...
57:03All of why you love sports. Yeah. I love the unexpected stories or like the things that feel like they're too good to be true.
57:10Just thinking about this, the Lions have this very easy schedule, sets up for them to have a major bounce-back season.
57:16Where's the Super Bowl being played this year? L.A.
57:19Los Angeles. Of course, broadcast for the first time ever on ESPN.
57:22That's right. Super Bowl 61. We're pumped about that.
57:24The whole company is. Wouldn't it be this Hollywood script if the Lions win the Super Bowl this year and Jared Goff
57:31goes back to the stadium that he briefly called home?
57:33Yes. That would be something. In a year in which I think the Rams are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl at home.
57:40Yes. That would be amazing sports right there. Yeah.
57:43I'm kind of rooting for the Rams. I mean, obviously I'm an Eagles fan so they're number one.
57:48But I just, it's just such a perfect setup for the Rams too.
57:51And sometimes a team is so well built and I mean, to have Garrett and Stafford now on this team that's so
57:58good, it's just like, it just feels like it's all set up for them to be at home.
58:03And a lot of people we love. Do you like the stories that are predictable?
58:07We like the unpredictable. I know. I know. And usually I'm an underdog guy but I kind of, I'm going to be,
58:13I think I'm just going to feel disappointed for them, you know, after what they did to build that team.
58:18I mean, for them to bring in Garrett two under this team, it's just unreal.
58:23And look, I'm an underdog guy for sure but it's just awesome.
58:26I don't even know you right now. You want the Rams to win?
58:30Like, I don't like it. It's so boring. I don't think they're the bad guys.
58:34I didn't say they're bad guys but that's so boring.
58:37No, you guys hate Sean McVay. I love Sean McVay.
58:39Is it true that the, if Aaron Donald signs, the team median age is 38.7?
58:43Is that true? No, it's not. Because it seems like they've got, no, they've got a lot of old guys.
58:49They've got some old guys. But like, that's so boring.
58:52No one. I don't know. I don't know. That team is just so good.
58:56I don't know. It's just a respect thing. It's a respect thing.
58:59Like, it's one of the best rosters I've seen in maybe ever.
59:02You can respect them and we can like individual components there but like, we started this conversation talking about the best part
59:09of sports is like the unlikely things that take place.
59:11And you're talking about the Rams winning the Super Bowl is like awesome?
59:15I like when the chalk stuff happens, guys. Yeah, I do this year.
59:19When the book wins, it's my favorite. Like if the Dodgers win the World Series, you're going to go, man, I just, now I respect.
59:26I don't even know what the world that is.
59:28The roster is just so good. It is one of the best rosters I've ever seen.
59:33Tark Skubel is like, yeah, maybe better. I know that when the 76ers win this season.
59:37Oh, there you go. See, yeah. I'm on board with that.
59:40You're a Philly fan now, right? You've always been a 76ers fan.
59:43I'm a lifetime Sixers fan. All right, we're going to do some mailback stuff because I'm sick of them.
59:49I can't believe I'm getting crushed here for I'll tell you why.
59:52It would be cool if like the Browns won the Super Bowl.
59:55That would be amazing. that'd be a great, that'd be a cool story in a lot of ways, but I don't know.
60:01I just have respect for what the Rams are doing.
60:04I need. I can respect them too. I need the Lions.
60:07I'm always rooting for, I mean, I'm a Lions fan, but like Lions and Bills would be insane.
60:12I love it. That would be wild. Would love it.
60:15All right, we got some, I broke my microphone.
60:18We've got some mailbag questions as Daniel continues to break his mic.
60:21It's now, okay, we have poll results first. Wow.
60:23All right, some poll results here that we do not like.
60:27I would like a recount. People have acknowledged me.
60:29The people are saying they would rather have Christian Watson for more fantasy points this season than Michael Pittman, 57 to 43%.
60:35Good luck. There's going to be games where Pittman has seven catches and Watson has six points.
60:40So, I mean, Christian Watson will be lucky to play 43% of the game.
60:44That's another, that's another thing with Watson. Yeah. I mean, if you were to list injury, how, just like how concerned you
60:50are about injury, about all receivers and lined them up, he'd be near the top.
60:54Yeah, whatever the highest number is. It's a tough thing to predict, but he has had his massive share of injuries.
61:00All right, let's do a couple of questions. All right.
61:03We'll close it out here with a few questions from chat.
61:06This one comes from Jordan. Jordan Olsen wants to know, is it more important to have an elite tight end or a
61:12quarterback in a 10-person full PPR league? Here's the great question.
61:15But he also says in all caps, please answer on the show.
61:18Please, we got you, baby. do we think it's well-mannered or do we think it's like, I'm telling you to do this?
61:24No, I don't think they're telling, I think it's just a, man, I really love the show.
61:29I would love for you guys to be a part of my, like sometimes if my kids like are being complete turds, which is quite often.
61:36That happens. And like, they'll say like, Cheerios. You say please.
61:40And they go, please Cheerios. That doesn't, that wasn't better.
61:42Okay. So I couldn't tell if it was one of those from Jordan right there.
61:46Well, I'm not going to listen to him then.
61:49I'm just going to write my answer here. I've got to, I think, I wonder if you guys feel the same way
61:55as me because I've thought about this a bunch.
61:58I would much rather have an elite tight end because I just think the position is deeper and it's much easier to
62:04get a quarterback later in the draft. Yeah. Easy answer.
62:07Yeah. Easy answer. Simple. There you go, Jordan. All right.
62:09Next one. This one's from Sports Analytics. Chick wants to know who's the biggest regression candidate or bust in wide receivers.
62:15Mike, do we have any big regression candidates off the top of your head?
62:19I forget. I forget? Christian Watson out on it.
62:22That's it. Yes, for sure. Luther Burden's efficiency definitely going to regress.
62:25We know that. Man, let's see. I wrote, you have to, we have to read this column.
62:30Yes. Yeah, regression. You have to go back all the touchdown regression column at ESPN.com.
62:34We have the guys who are going to score more touchdowns.
62:37I'll give you one that I think people are a little bit concerned on.
62:41It's not going to be reflected in our ADP or our rankings for that matter, but there are some people that are
62:47a little concerned about, I mean, obviously, Devontae Adams is probably a natural one, right?
62:51Yeah, a little bit. I mean, he is a premier touchdown in terms of volume.
62:55His end zone targets were enormous last year. Rashi Rice would be one.
62:59The thought process behind Rashi Rice is that the Chiefs can actually run the football now and that so much of what
63:05he's done, I believe our friend Ian Hart had said that Rashi Rice has one career completion on a ball thrown 25 plus air yards.
63:12Seriously? He's a PPR fiend. That's amazing. Not so much so if the team can run the football.
63:17He'd be one. He'd be an interesting candidate. I'm looking at this list here.
63:21Obviously, Mike, this is not a wide receiver. Never mind that we were asking for wide receivers.
63:26I don't know. You've got T Higgins with a touchdown regression here.
63:29They had 11 last year. Good one. And then Williams fits the bill a little bit.
63:33Calm down. Quentin Johnston. Juwan Jennings definitely after having nine touchdowns last year he's going to be the number three in Minnesota.
63:40Definitely. That was cheating. Yeah. How about going the other direction?
63:43This is the ultimate one. Justin Jefferson for sure.
63:45I talked about how high he was in end zone targets last year at 15 of them.
63:50He only scored two touchdowns. This expected touchdown total was 8.1.
63:53Wow. So if he just had like average quarterback efficiency, he would have had eight touchdowns last year.
63:58You know who the number two player in this list is for Mike Clay?
64:02Positive regression? Positive regression. I do. Luther Burden III going from two touchdowns to six touchdowns.
64:06No doubt. Yeah. Look, I saw him ranked as a starter.
64:09It's just the. Come on. It's just fun, Mike.
64:12Come on. The statistical efficiencies going down the touchdown.
64:14I think he just touchdown rate should go up.
64:17This is called covering your bases. That's right. It's called being objective.
64:20I'm covering all the categories. I love it. You are the most objective person I've met.
64:25I try to be. I try to be. JEFC 1999.
64:27Big in chat. We love this person. I'm not saying it'll happen, but doesn't a Josh Allen slowdown get more probable every year?
64:34I mean. Yeah, but I mean, is he anywhere close to like, what's he, 30 years old now?
64:39Like, we're seeing quarterbacks play at a high, high level.
64:42I would say this, to Jeff's point or Jeff's question, there is a little bit of me that is nervous that like
64:48it won't be a slow drip in Josh's regression.
64:50It's just going to be one of those years where physically he doesn't hold up the same level.
64:55That year is not this year. It doesn't feel like it.
64:58Do you have a year? And I mean, we haven't seen, it's been in our lifetime that mobile rushing quarterbacks have been a thing.
65:05So like for fantasy football, like when do you feel like that mobility, are you start to be concerned?
65:10Do you have an age or is it really just about every player is different?
65:15I'm going to turn to the objective guy. Yeah.
65:17The interesting thing about this is that we saw Lamar Jackson's rushing slip a little last year and he's 29.
65:23He's actually younger. And the same thing with Jalen Hurts, who, what he's 28 and his rushing really dropped last year.
65:28So you kind of don't know when it's coming, but I think when something like what happens with Hurts last year where
65:35his rushing went way down, I think that's the signal with Josh Allen because Allen through the air has been kind of up and down.
65:42You know, at times he's thrown the ball well.
65:44Often he's, that hasn't been his strength, right? He's been inconsistent in that area.
65:48So that's what I'll be watching for is if there's a big drop in rushing, that's when the red flags will start to go up.
65:55I think, have you taken Josh Allen in any of your drafts or do you think that you will?
66:00Mocks, yes, but not. That was more for research purposes.
66:03I've only had one draft. Mock drafts are the perfect place to be able to draft Josh Allen to be like, do
66:09I, is it, yeah, is it worth it for me to invest this early in this guy?
66:14Yeah, I have to project out a mattress. Yeah.
66:16Do people, do you get to try out mattresses?
66:19Oh yeah, that's big in that industry now. Of course.
66:22We bought one this spring when they gave us four months to try it out.
66:26Four months? Yeah. Wow. Did he keep it? Yeah.
66:28Yeah. Anyway, I have Allen projected way ahead of all the other quarterbacks, but it's just very, the opportunity cost in rounds two or three is so much.
66:36It's hard to, it's all hard to do that.
66:39Agreed. Tomorrow. It's going to be another good show.
66:41Hardest players to rank. Oh, it's always fun because it's just about, I mean, sometimes we just have feelings on guys.
66:47Yeah. So many ways. It is so difficult. All right.
66:50Thank you so much for hanging out with us.
66:52We love you guys. Go back and watch the beginning of this week.
66:56Mike Clay's first week here on the show. Pumped.
66:58He's made it four straight days. We'll see if he can do the full week.
67:03We love you guys. Don't forget to love each other and be kind to yourself.
67:07You guys deserve it. We love you. We'll see you tomorrow.
67:10Hasta mañana. I don't think I can be your friend, Isabella said.
67:13Rebecca's stomach flipped. This is the love story of real hinge couple Isabella and Rebecca, written and read by me, Temi Dentonhurst.
67:19Listen to the free audiobook now.