From the episode
Tucker Kraft... tore his ACL in the middle of last season... he was 18th in targets and catches, but he was very lucky in touchdowns. Seven touchdowns, but only three end zone targets... two years in a row where he just like almost tripled his expected touchdown total... Those guys all year three went down... his targets went up his last two games before he got hurt. He had 10 targets and back-to-back gains... Jaden Reed was out for both of those games... his best games last year... were against the Bengals, Cardinals, Steelers, and Commanders who ranked, get ready for this, first, second, fourth, and fifth... in fantasy points allowed to tight ends
STACKED’s take
ACL recovery, TD regression, and circumstantial target spike make Kraft a sixth-round bust risk.
Bust candidate due to multiple compounding factors: ACL tear mid-last season with uncertain return timeline (possibly week one); significant touchdown regression risk after two consecutive seasons of massive overperformance (7 TDs on 3 end zone targets in 2023; 6 TDs on 2 end zone targets in 2024, when expected was 1.8). Historical analysis shows tight ends with similar two-year TD overperformance stretches see significant regression in year three. Target volume spike in final two games before injury (10 targets each) coincided with injuries to Jaden Reed and Christian Watson, suggesting those elevated targets were circumstantial. Best four games (12+ fantasy points) came against Bengals, Cardinals, Steelers, and Commanders—the four worst defenses against tight ends—indicating matchup-dependent performance. Averaged 4.1 targets per game in 2024 and 4.2 in first five games of 2023, suggesting baseline volume is modest. Drafted in sixth round, making him one of the more expensive tight ends.
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