From the episode
he had a very good track record and a small sample size of when he had six targets or more of what he produced in his career. It's like nine times, you know, but he averaged over 12 PPR points per game in those nine games.
STACKED’s take
Positive signalProjection
Likely's 12 PPR average in high-target games supports top-3 tight end upside despite low route share.
Despite a 67% route participation rate in Week 1 (below the 75%+ threshold of top-8 tight ends from last year), Likely has a strong historical track record: in nine career games with six or more targets, he averaged over 12 PPR points per game. The source projects he could finish with 8–9 touchdowns and average 4–5 catches for 60+ yards weekly, with Jackson Dart's strong Week 1 performance and an improving schedule supporting continued offensive involvement.
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