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the Broncos are like their scheme is saying get the ball to Jaylen Waddle and then Bo Nicks is kind of like turning down some opportunities... the yards per target is just way down at 7.5. His career is at 9.3. So, I think he's firmly a positive regression candidate... 49ers don't have Nick Bosa right now.

STACKED’s take

Positive signalProjection

Positive regression candidate; 49ers matchup favorable with Bosa out

Waddle is a positive regression candidate despite current headwinds. The Broncos' scheme targets him, but QB Bo Nicks is turning down opportunities and getting the ball out to checkdowns too quickly before Waddle is open on downfield routes (per Matt Harmon). His yards per target is down to 7.5 vs. his 9.3 career average. He's faced a brutal opening schedule (Chiefs, Jacksonville, Rams). This week against the 49ers, who are missing Nick Bosa on defense, presents a more favorable matchup. Aman Ross St. Brown recommends copying Michael Wilson's route tree against San Francisco—screens, out routes, sideline balls, and in-cuts over the middle—as a template for Waddle's usage. Denver is only projected for 22.25 points, making this a boom-bust wide receiver spot.

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