The 8 Most Disgusting Picks in 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
40 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 28, 2026
Published
Thu, May 28, 2026
24
Player insights
14
Players mentioned
Topics
Khalil ShakirMarvin Harrison Jr.D.J. MooreDK MetcalfTaysom HillA.J. BrownChris OlaveDalton KincaidDeVonta SmithJeremiyah LoveJordyn TysonKeon ColemanMichael WilsonTrey McBride
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection0:38
Host mentions hoping for an AJ Brown trade to finally happen, noting 'our long-serving nightmare' and that the trade was apparently happening a month ago but hasn't materialized yet.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveRole30:18
Chris Olave is viewed as 'so good' and was being used in different ways, making him a fine pick despite the Saints' modest offensive projections.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeProjection9:00
DJ Moore is overpriced at WR27 in the middle of the fifth round despite declining production: 80 yards per game in 2023, down to 57 yards in 2024, and 40 yards per game in 2025, with a projection of only 764 receiving yards and 5.5 TDs.
Insight pageNegativeValue10:18
Multiple wide receivers drafted after DJ Moore are projected for more receiving yards, including Rome Odunze, Marvin Mims, Jordan Addison, Michael Pittman (4 rounds later), Marvin Harrison Jr. (nearly 100 more yards), Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, and DK Metcalf.
Insight pageNegativeBust14:06
Despite being attached to Josh Allen, DJ Moore shows signs of decline with effort and alignment issues in recent years, and the Bills offense has historically spread the ball around rather than featuring an alpha wide receiver.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveRole19:15
Dalton Kincaid missed time and played through injury last season, and the Bills want him to be better than Khalil Shakir, making Shakir the third receiver in the offense.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveValue0:39
Co-host notes that DeVonta Smith is currently being drafted after AJ Brown, which is part of the consideration around AJ Brown's trade situation and draft positioning.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
PositiveProjection30:40
DK Metcalf was WR27-34 in expected points and WR32 in targets per game last year, but his ADP hasn't adjusted despite increased target competition from Michael Pittman.
Insight pageNegativeRole31:40
Michael Pittman is expected to take over the slant routes and short-range targets that DK Metcalf was getting, forcing Metcalf to operate deeper downfield where Aaron Rodgers is less willing to throw.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveRole3:42
Jeremiah Love, the Cardinals' third overall pick, is expected to be force-fed the ball in the offense, reducing opportunities for wide receivers.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveValue30:15
Jordan Tyson is expected to be overpriced or undervalued depending on Saints offensive projections, with potential for significant upside if the offense scores more than the projected 24th-ranked points.
Insight pageKeon Coleman
PositiveRole20:09
Keon Coleman could get involved in the Bills' various personnel sets, further reducing Khalil Shakir's target share.
Insight pageKhalil Shakir
PositiveRole18:39
Khalil Shakir had a 26% screen target rate, and many of those screen targets are expected to go to DJ Moore instead, limiting his upside.
Insight pageNegativeRole19:03
Khalil Shakir is pigeonholed away from the red zone due to his size, limiting touchdown upside despite some yards-after-catch appeal.
Insight pageNegativeProjection20:15
As the wide receiver one on the Bills, Khalil Shakir finished as WR44-49 in usage, indicating limited upside and that last year's production won't repeat with DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid ahead of him.
Insight pageNegativeInjury22:20
Khalil Shakir underwent ankle surgery in the offseason and returned to OTAs wearing an ankle stabilizer, possibly indicating a tightrope procedure, which is concerning for a player who relies on speed and yards after the catch.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveProjection1:23
Hayden has Marvin Harrison Jr. ranked 80th overall, significantly lower than his current ADP of 67th overall (WR33), citing lack of manufactured touches (1% screen target rate), limited downfield production, and contested catch struggles.
Insight pageNegativeRole2:32
The Cardinals offense is expected to be much more balanced under LaFleur with Jeremiah Love, Algier, and James Conner in the backfield, leading to significantly fewer pass attempts than the pass-heavy scheme from last year.
Insight pageNegativeMatchup4:01
The Cardinals' schedule features tough defenses (Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Chiefs) and uncertain QB play with Jacoby Brissett likely being replaced by Minshew or Carson Beck mid-season.
Insight pageNegativeProjection5:40
The Cardinals are projected to be the 32nd highest scoring offense at 18.5 points per game (down from 22nd last year at 21 PPG), which severely limits Harrison Jr.'s upside despite his current ADP as WR33.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveRole2:32
Michael Wilson is viewed as a legitimate NFL player and on par with Marvin Harrison Jr. as a football player, and is expected to get the manufactured touches that Harrison Jr. lacks.
Insight pageTaysom Hill
NegativeProjection23:56
Taysom Hill is overpriced as QB19 with projections of 19.5 passing TDs, 4.5 rushing TDs, and 3,500 passing yards, which equates to similar points per game as Sam Darnold (QB25) last year despite being drafted much earlier.
Insight pagePositiveProjection25:33
While the Saints offense could improve under Kellen Moore with additions like Travis Etienne and Jordan Tyson, the team is still projected for only the 24th most points, limiting Hill's upside.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveRole3:50
Trey McBride is expected to be the primary target for manufactured touches in the Cardinals offense and is viewed as the best player on the team.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00It's time to piss some people off. Yes, these are the eight ADPs, the eight spots where players are selected that are the most disgusting right now in
0:09your fantasy football draft. Hayden, one question for you, did you drink your haterade this morning?
0:14>> Of course I did. I'm going to go back to where I've done this before and repeat some names from previous seasons, so get
0:19ready for that. I was excited. I will say this, felt a little bit more challenging this year to find some like
0:24really, really mispriced ones and even some of the guys that we'll talk about today, it's like I'm 10 spots, 15 spots
0:29lower. Like nothing that really jumps out. I think part of that is because we don't have that many rookies coming in
0:34here. So like sometimes there's like a rookie I'm like, okay, like there's no chance this guy's going to be able to
0:38pay that off. We just had fewer rookies to kind of go in there and mix things up. So I think it was a little bit more
0:42challenging this year.
0:43>> Wow, Hayden opening with a hedge. Who could have seen that coming?
0:46Uh Eight names today. I brought four, Hayden brought four. We're going blind in this episode. So I have no idea the
0:52picks, the players that he is bringing up. And so hopefully that, you know, causes some disruption, some disagreement here today. And also, like
1:01we didn't avoid the easy stuff with, you know, Malik Nabers coming back from this injury in the second round or Rashee
1:06Rice and everything that he's going through in jail for 30 days in the third round. So mainly we want to talk about
1:12like a player who is actually on the field and just the surrounding ecosystem that they're in that it might be, you
1:19know, a disgusting selection at this point. So with all that said, Hayden, why don't you kick us off?
1:23>> All right, Marvin Harrison Jr. is still not going to believe in this one. I have him down at 80th overall. He's he's kind
1:29of in the middle of a round where there's a lot of quarterbacks and some other wide receivers that I kind of just
1:34like a little bit more. So like Alec Pierce would be an example of that. The problem with Marvin Harrison right now
1:41is he doesn't get any manufactured touches. He's got a 1% screen target rate of the last couple seasons. And then the downfield stuff has not really
1:48materialized. And then the contested catch stuff has been a work in progress.
1:52It's hard to be kind of like average in the other two categories if you're not getting the manufactured touches. And then on top of that, Michael Wilson was
1:59a a very real problem last year. And when I went back and watched the Michael Wilson stuff, I see a real football
2:04player. Like, none of that seemed that fluky, except for the Cardinals pass game was so outrageous down the stretch with Jacoby Brissett. They were number
2:13one in neutral pass rate. I would be absolutely floored if LaFleaur takes that offense and does anything like it was down the stretch. I think they're
2:22going to be way more balanced, especially when they have uh Jeremiah Love in-house, when they have Algier, and even James Conner out there. It's a
2:28lot of running backs.
2:30I'm expecting a lot lot fewer pass attempts in this. Trey McBride's going to get the manufactured stuff. I think he's the best player on this this
2:37football team. I think Michael Wilson's just on par with Marvin Harrison as a football player. And then you go into the schedule. They start with the
2:44Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs. Is Jacoby Brissett going to be starting when we need him to be? I
2:56don't think so. And then we start getting into Minshew, Carson Beck, a a third-round rookie starting games by the end of the
3:02season.
3:03That makes me pretty nervous here. So, I I think he's a the first guy off your bench wide receiver, finding the right matchups,
3:11and I think a lot of things have to kind of go right for me to be wrong here.
3:14>> So, just to set the table, uh he's going 67th overall. So, that's the seventh player in the sixth round over an
3:20underdog. And uh wide receiver 33 at this point. So, people are drafting him as if they were in his starting in their
3:26starting lineup every single week as their wide receiver three cuz he's a top, you know, 36 wide receiver here on the board. Um
3:34yeah, I mean, even if you look last year at where the Cardinals were in scoring, and it was tough to get there, and even
3:40Marvin Harrison Jr. didn't get there in this offense. They were 22nd in points scored across the league with 21 points per game. As you noted, they are
3:48projected to be the 32nd highest scoring offense. That's dead last. Uh at 18 and a half points right now. And like Reeves
3:56brought it up in in yesterday's show where Trey McBride ran what, 120 more routes than any other tight end out there. Uh that means the wide receivers
4:04are also running more routes than their, you know, peers and competition as well and it still didn't get to a point. So,
4:11uh I want to be in the area with Marvin Harrison Jr. where he needs to show me something before I feel like I'm going
4:17to miss out on his like blowout breakout season cuz we haven't seen it so far.
4:22>> Yeah, we haven't. The Cardinals were eighth in passing yards per game last year. I just don't think that's going to
4:27repeat and if that doesn't, then all of a sudden he's got to be a lot better than Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. Not to mention the
4:35Jeremiah Love aspect where they're going to be force-feeding the ball to their third overall pick. So, I just think this is one of the situations where you
4:41know, he's a I think he's a fine player.
4:43He's like a very fine NFL starter on a really bad team.
4:48I just don't think that should be like the the wide receiver 33 in ADP.
4:51>> I was thinking about this. Uh this is the fifth iteration of the show that we've done in our fifth year. Um I was
4:58trying to draft in my mind the four names that you would bring to the table.
5:03Uh Marvin Harrison Jr. was definitely on the list. I know that there's at least going to be another one and I feel like
5:07Hayden, if I wrote this down, I'd get three of the four names that you're bringing here to this episode.
5:11>> Okay. Yeah, I mean you probably can.
5:14>> By the way, we're in year five. Thank you all. I know many of you have been watching since that very first episode,
5:19since that very first month. Shout out to all of you. We're on the road to 175,000 subscribers. It would be so amazing if
5:26you could hit that subscribe button. It is totally free to all of you. Shout out to everyone who watches and hits that
5:31button and also a like, a thumbs up. Uh let's get a thousand on this very episode. All right, for me, I'm going to
5:38stick with the wide receiver theme.
5:40I think DJ Moore at wide receiver 27 in the middle of the fifth round is pretty disgusting. Obviously, look, a quick
5:48hedge. If this hits, it's massive, you know? There are high-end outcomes cuz you're attached to Josh Allen and that, again, ceiling outcome is is fantastic.
5:57Let's also keep in mind that his career best season was in 2023 and he's declined sharply in each of the last 2
6:05years. So, 2023, 80 yards per game, then down to 57 yards, and this past season down to 40 yards per contest. That's
6:13with Ben Johnson, one of the best play callers and offenses throughout the league.
6:18There are a number of wide receivers actually drafted after him, Hayden, that are straight-up out-projecting him at this very moment. And it's not just one
6:27or two. I mean, the list is long. So, to set the table, DJ Moore right now on Underdog is projected for 764
6:35receiving yards. Rome Odunze, projected for more yards. Marvin Mims, Jordan Addison, projected for more. Michael Pittman goes four full rounds later and
6:44is projected for more yards, receiving yards, than DJ Moore. Marvin Harrison Jr., the name you just brought up, is somehow projected for nearly 100 more
6:52yards than DJ Moore is right now. Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, again, the list goes on and on and on.
6:58And you can say, "Well, yards don't matter. It can just be touchdowns."
7:02Projected for a measly five and a half TDs. So, while, again, I understand we have seen alpha seasons in the past from
7:09a wide receiver attached to Josh Allen, this offense is going to score points, I think what we have seen most recently
7:17with DJ Moore is a player in his decline, even if he goes back to being in Joe Brady's offense, which he
7:22previously had over 1,100 yards in in Carolina.
7:25>> Yeah, I think that his numbers are going to come back up from where they were the last couple seasons, just because he has
7:29Josh Allen. Uh I I just don't think that he's going to be um like a total needle mover in this offense just because they
7:37get so many other guys involved here.
7:39So, they're going to want to make this work cuz they spent so much money and all the draft capital on there. I think
7:44he's going to be a pretty close to full-time player in this offense. I think that, you know, they've taken their swings on Amari Cooper and stuff.
7:50So, I I don't think he's going to like fully bust from here. I think that would be like really tragic if he if he's not
7:55like a top 30-ish uh fantasy wide receiver, but I do think it's the people trying to make like the like real upside case. I think they have
8:03to be a little bit more um just they have to be more accepting of what he's put on the field the last
8:08couple seasons. I am really excited about the potential for him to get the deep ball back cuz this is the the best
8:13season that he had was with Justin Fields when he was throwing the ball way down the the field and he was coming
8:18down with it cuz he's so explosive. Josh Allen has not been playing that style offense the last couple seasons. So, I
8:24think that's going to be the thing where is that because he didn't have the right wide receiver? Is there something else
8:28going on the offense where they want this to be a little bit more Dalton Kincaid, James Cooky? And if that's the case, then I think DJ Moore,
8:36the spike week potential is going to be a little bit uh maybe less reliable than we're hoping for.
8:40>> And tell me if you have a different opinion on this. I do think we are always chasing this wide receiver one
8:46attached to Josh Allen because of the Stefon Diggs days and how he was one of the best assets in fantasy football.
8:53But, unless my brain is misremembering, they have talked about how they don't want, you know, a number one wide receiver, an alpha wide receiver, that
9:00they want to like spread the football around. Uh and to me, DJ Moore, when you go back and watch the previous 2 years,
9:09there's some obvious holes and weaknesses in his game, not just from like a talent standpoint, but also from like an effort and an alignment
9:16standpoint, too. So, if all that gets fixed and he's just extremely happy in Buffalo and this turns out to be an
9:23awesome second-round investment that Brandon Beane made, then sure, it it can pay off, but I think we're just in a different era of this Bills passing
9:31offense than we were the days of Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen being one of like the more unstoppable duos in the league.
9:37>> So looking at the receivers after him, like you'd rather have like the Rondale Moore. I think that Christian Watson's a
9:42great pick. We talked about that with Lord Reeves on the last episode.
9:44>> I mean even this fifth round, like I think there's such a stark difference in the Terry McLaurin and Jaylen Waddle
9:51versus DJ Moore. And then we talked about liking the round five running backs more than the round four running backs. So like the David Montgomerys,
9:58the De'Andre Swifts, the Quentin Johnkins, and Like there's just a lot more names in this round that I'd be excited to draft than click on DJ
10:08Moore's name.
10:09>> Right. I'm fine with him in this round.
10:11I don't I'm not like going out of my way to draft him. I would much rather have like De'Andre Swift, Jaylen Waddle, and
10:16McLaurin right in front of us.
10:17>> And there's Lamar Jackson there, too, who could be a quarterback one that we're getting a huge discount on versus where he was going last year in the
10:23third round.
10:23>> Yeah. Yeah, not surprised that DJ Moore is in the same exact draft slot as the Josh Allen drafter in the third round.
10:29So I think that this ADP is going to sit right here exactly for the entire summer.
10:35Um and I think this is about the right spot. But I'm not believing in like a total upside case here.
10:40>> By the way, we're going to talk about Underdog ADPs. You can see them on the board right now. This is throughout the
10:44entire summer. And if you've never done drafted on Best Ball, you should do it right now. All you do is draft. There's
10:50no lineups. There's no waivers. There's no, you know, getting injuries and then not having someone in your starting lineup because of a zero. It is the best
10:58way to spend your summers, whether walking your dog or out by the lake on the dock, outside grilling. So use promo code The
11:05Show. The link is in the description.
11:08Play five bucks, you get 50 bucks in your back pocket, too. So go and play some Best Ball this summer. All right,
11:14two names down.
11:15Uh I have a feeling who your second name is going to be. Just give it to me.
11:19>> I'm going to rearrange my order, and I'm just going to say Khalil Shakir, which was so funny. I was trying to bite my
11:24tongue here. I was trying to bite my tongue. I think the problem with Khalil Shakir is he had a 26% screen rate. So
11:30that's like how many of which of his targets were actually screens. DJ Moore was seventh on that list. I think there's a chance that a lot of these
11:37screen targets with Khalil Shakir are going to end up going to DJ Moore. And aside from that, Khalil Shakir is kind
11:43of pigeonholed away from the red zone because of his size. He got like a couple touchdowns down there because of a screen and he would have some yards
11:49after the catch appeal. I think he's a good football player, but I think we also have to incorporate that Dalton Kincaid missed time and then also was
11:56playing through injury this past season.
11:58So, I think all of a sudden Dalton Kincaid, they want him to be better than Khalil Shakir. Same thing with DJ Moore.
12:03So, now we're looking at like the third receiver in the mix. You have to worry about somehow like a Keon Coleman
12:09getting involved. They run all these different personnel sets. So, I think all of a sudden his routes come down a little bit. It's a really balanced
12:15offense out there. So, uh last year the number two uh receiver on this team uh was like way, way, way after Khalil
12:24Shakir. That's just like not going to repeat. And as the wide receiver one on this team, he finishes the wide receiver
12:3044 on wide receiver 49 usage. So, I just don't see like much upside appeal here and he can get down to the threshold
12:39where the routes and the targets per game aside from like the deepest of PPR leagues, it just doesn't move the needle
12:45enough. So, at this point in the draft, I want to take some shots on wide receivers that I think have a chance to
12:50kind of go up. So, it's like the Casey Concepcion's, like that kind of tier. I think even uh some guys even a little
12:55bit further down from this, like Stefon Diggs, uh Jaylen Nailor, some guys I think have a chance like really get enough targets to matter. I think he's
13:02going to be the number three guy in the offense here behind DJ Moore and Kincaid. And at that point, like what
13:07exactly am I hoping for?
13:09>> Yeah. I think again, the Bills passing offense and I didn't expect to go for 12 minutes on this, but it kind of breaks
13:15your brain in fantasy football where if you put on paper, oh, they're the third highest scoring offense, we want all the
13:20pieces for that, you kind of don't. Like you want a Josh Allen and you want a James Cook and the rest you were
13:27frustrated on a weekly basis to put out there in your starting lineup, and that's just how they have operated. I also, speaking of operations, don't know
13:35if you have seen this Twitter handle called Banged Up Bills, but they go through injury news. This is back on May
13:4020th. Uh quote, "We got a ton of injury info coming out of Bills phase three OTAs. Khalil Shakir underwent surgery this off season. Returned to OTAs
13:50wearing an ankle stabilizer to protect the healing ankle from surgery, possible tightrope procedure." Uh tightrope is one of those terms that we do not want
13:59to talk about, especially for a guy who relies on speed and yards after the catch to create his fantasy points.
14:05>> Yeah, and the cutting, so obviously that that's that's big news over there as well. So, I just think Dalton Kincaid,
14:10as frustrating as he is, like there's still some room for for upside with if he can stay on the field healthy, and
14:15then last year with everything going right for Khalil Shakir, he'd be he would've been like a fine pick at at this range, nothing too
14:21crazy. And that's like with everything kind of breaking his way, so I'm out.
14:25>> All right, I'll stay in this range then.
14:27Uh 10th round, if you look at projected passing touchdowns, unfortunately Tyler Shuck as quarterback 19 is overpriced. Um Underdog predicts
14:36him for 19 and 1/2 passing touchdowns this season. You can also find 18 and 1/2 as a number out there. That means
14:42there are only three quarterbacks three that have a lower projection in terms of passing scores. Cam Ward, Malik Willis, and Fernando Mendoza, which we
14:52expect him to what? Play 11 games at max. Now, we can add in rushing touchdowns. His projection there is at 4
14:59and 1/2, and that's after I think three rushing scores last year in nine games as a starter. Uh and then you can also
15:05look at his projected passing yards.
15:07That's at 3,500, so that is right in the middle. So, if you put that all together, and Hayden, after this show,
15:13if you want to do the math and how I got it wrong, that's fine, you can do that.
15:16Uh basically, again, if you convert all those into fantasy points per game, that puts him in line with what Sam Darnold
15:23put out last year as quarterback 25 in points per game. Again, in nine starts, 10 passing scores, three rushing scores last year. So, overall, if I zoomed out
15:33and I look at offenses that could take a step this season, do I think this number is low? I do. I mean, it's Kellen Moore.
15:39We talk about pace and plays all the time. They added Travis Etienne. They also added Jordan Tyson. Uh even getting like Oscar Delp to work in like 12 and
15:4913 personnel sets, I think is really cool.
15:52But and these things are tied together, it's not just like the individual projected stuff here for Taysom Hill, it's also the projections for the
15:59offense. I mean, the Saints are projected for the 24th most points. So, I don't entirely hate Taysom Hill as quarterback 19, although I would take
16:08Malik Willis over him, but in this round 10, there are just other names I want to click more. And Casey Conception and
16:16Bill Kroskey Merritt and definitely Matthew Golden there at the top of round 10 just because I think that like there's some real upside outcomes there.
16:24And the projected numbers here for Taysom Hill do not indicate a real upside outcome.
16:28>> I almost had Jordan Tyson on my list. I think Hill is a good one. This one's pretty complicated because I have him as
16:35listed as like a higher on his Pick'em Lobby projections, like you're saying. I think the Saints are going to score more
16:39points than being number 24. And still, he's priced way too close to the other quarterbacks that were like very clearly going to be fantasy quarterback ones.
16:49Like he's not that far off from freaking Matthew Stafford.
16:52>> Kyler Murray?
16:53>> Kyler Murray's kind of right there. I think Jordan Love and Malik Willis are going to be pretty interesting. So, uh I I
16:58kind of like Taysom Hill. We're going to talk about him a lot in like a couple weeks here when we go through the the
17:02second uh year players uh week. Um so, I'll save like all of the film notes there. I think he's going to be pretty
17:08solid. I just think it's a little bit hard for him to kind of squeeze out his current projections versus the ADP in
17:14relation to the other guys. Like I I would just rather pay the premium on the Justin Herberts of the worlds, the the
17:20the Trevor Lawrences of the world, and then kind of like those 2 V 2s versus Tyler Lockett. And this is nothing to
17:25say anything bad about Tyler Lockett and Kellen Moore. I think they're going to be totally fine. I think that the ADP's
17:30like around off right now.
17:32>> Again, if you want to place him here in your rankings, I I understand it. I also think with everything that we've said,
17:38he's kind of being drafted at one of his higher end outcomes. If we're just zooming out and looking at what other markets are are suggesting
17:45here for the Saints. But again, we're going to have one of the shows where we discuss the highest scoring offense and
17:49the projected lowest ones and predict some that might overdo that. I I guess my bigger question here though, like if we're
17:55talking about the Saints and just projecting the 24th highest scoring offense, um that means Travis Etienne is a third round pick. That means Chris
18:04Olave is a third round pick. That means Jordan Tyson is a sixth sixth round pick. Like this is rich.
18:09>> Yeah, I think one of two things are off or maybe both. Jordan Tyson's overpriced or Tyler Lockett's projections in the
18:14pick'em lobby are way underselling it.
18:16Like those two things cannot be true together. I do think Olave is so good and he was being used in different ways.
18:22I think he's fine. I feel very, very confident that Trevor Travis Etienne is going to be a baller in this offense as
18:29well. I just think that, you know, Lockett plus Jordan Tyson, it's not mathing out right now.
18:34>> All right, four down, four more to go.
18:37Who's next?
18:37>> Let's go to DK Metcalf.
18:40This is a situation where there's a lot more target competition, the price tag hasn't really budged, and there was more evidence last year that
18:48the Aaron Rodgers upside case has a lot lower chance of paying off. So, he was the wide receiver 27 on wide receiver 34
18:56expected points last year. He was the wide receiver 32 in targets per game.
19:00That's about where his ADP is. The problem is Michael Pittman, I think, is a really good fit with Aaron Rodgers.
19:07All those like checks that DK Metcalf was getting up on slants out of out of run calls, I think Michael Pittman could
19:12do a whole lot of that and I just begin to wonder is DK Metcalf going to like his A dots going to go way back up
19:19because he's not going to get the gimmies and at the same time Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to throw the ball down the field cuz he doesn't want
19:26to get hit. So, he was actually the per game wide receiver 42 in targets of 15 plus air yards this past season. I think
19:33that's mostly an Aaron Rodgers stat. I don't think DK Metcalf's game has really changed all that much. I think he's a
19:38really solid wide receiver, but I just think that Michael Pittman's going to get involved a little bit more. I think Jeremy Bernard as among like second
19:45round rookies, he seems pretty Aaron Rodgers coded and I think they're going to run the ball behind this pretty solid offensive line here. So, I have him like
19:54around lower than where he's currently being projected. The the Aaron Rodgers, you know, being 42 years old, like one injury and then all of a sudden we're in
20:02a pretty difficult situation here. So, I just think that the gimmies are going to go down, the inconsistency is going to
20:08go down, and then redraft you're going to be trying to say, "Okay, the the Steelers are projected for 22 points this week and DK Metcalf now gets four
20:15or five targets per game. Is this the week when he's going to catch the long pass?" And that game is pretty
20:19terrifying to me.
20:20>> I mean, they basically tried to transform DK Metcalf into Michael Pittman last year. Yeah, it was crossing routes that were very short, some RPO
20:28stuff, and slants, and like a lot of stuff in the trash in the middle of the field. That's where Michael Pittman has
20:33done his best work in Indianapolis.
20:35That's never where DK Metcalf does some of his best stuff. I mean, I remember one catch, I think it was against the
20:39Vikings, that he took a short pass and outran everyone. It's like, "Cool, we get to see it." But we just don't get to
20:44see like the special sauce that DK Metcalf brings to an NFL team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. It's just not that type of thing. And sure, every game
20:53we might get one throw from Aaron Rodgers. It's like, "Oh, old man still got it." Like the placement, the flick of the wrist, all that type of stuff.
21:01But uh it's very different than getting multiple of those opportunities per game here for DK. And uh yeah, I mean it goes from basically
21:09being the only wide receiver on the team last year to Michael Pittman and even Jerry Bernard who has experience all over the field during his time at
21:17Alabama.
21:18>> Yep, last note for me in three or four wide receiver sets last year 15% target share for DK Metcalf. When he was the
21:25only wide receiver out there that was a 25% chance. When you start chopping off some of the wide receivers like the or
21:30the tight ends the Johnny Smiths I'm expecting the Steelers just to use three wide receiver sets a little bit more that goes back to Mike McCarthy as well
21:39and all of a sudden I'm just fearful that Michael Pittman is like not that different than DK Metcalf in terms of
21:45just like the the the target share number. So I would just rather take Michael Pittman a whole lot later and by
21:51the way the Michael Pittman projections are like pretty rock solid for his ADP.
21:56>> Yeah, I was stunned going through it and so are Courtland Suttons by the way. The the markets have not given up on
22:01Courtland Sutton here in terms of touchdowns and receiving yards.
22:04>> Yeah, I love Courtland Sutton. I I think I'm on his lower.
22:08>> [laughter] >> People love drafting rookies Hayden so let's talk about a rookie here. Carnell Tate's ADP is disgusting but it's disgustingly too low.
22:17>> Wow, okay.
22:19>> Okay, hit me.
22:19>> So Cal Burney only posted this graphic and we'll get producer Reese to throw it up here of where rookie wide receivers
22:25have been drafted since 2021 and despite being the fourth overall pick let's me remind you that's where Carnell Tate was just drafted a couple
22:32months ago.
22:33Tate is going as a 60th overall selection right now. So again since 2021 five rookie wide receivers have been selected higher than that. Malik Nabers
22:44finished as the wide receiver eight in points per game drafted as the wide receiver 18 that year. T-Mac just this past season finished as the wide
22:50receiver 22 drafted as the wide receiver 17 so that's a small loss. Jamar Chase finished as the wide receiver four in
22:57points per game after being selected as the wide receiver 21 in Underdog drafts.
23:01Emeka Egbuka we know finishes as the wide receiver 26 last year, So drafted as the wide receiver 29. The one big
23:07whiff is a name that you brought up first here, Marvin Harrison Jr. Because people lost their freaking mind and drafted him 13th overall at the one-two
23:15turn.
23:17I think he was a name in the show, by the way, back in that year.
23:20>> Yes, of course.
23:21>> And he finishes as the wide receiver 43 in in points per game. So, look, two huge wins, one small win, and one small
23:29loss. So, that price tag that we're talking about here with Carnell Tate isn't close to a lot of the names that
23:35were mentioning. I mean, he's 60th overall and being selected as the wide receiver 30 in drafts right now. So, basically what I'm saying is I don't
23:42think that there's bottoming out potential here for Carnell Tate. He is a technician. He can line up all over the field. He has incredible hands, and
23:51Brian Daboll is willing to feature young wide receivers in the past, and he wants to push the football down the field. So,
23:58at worst, it's a small loss, but then I think even more so what I want to lean into here is that there's big win
24:05potential. Like, what if Cam Ward plays like the first overall pick like he was last year, and Carnell Tate looks like
24:11an alpha wide receiver that he was drafted to be. So, this is to me a discount on a rookie wide receiver who
24:18is clearly the number one wide receiver on his team, and that almost never happens when we're talking about Underdog and fantasy drafts in general.
24:25>> Yeah, I think my like closest comparables to him were Terrace Terrace Marshall who was wide receiver 24, Chris Olave wide receiver 24 as a
24:32rookie, Garrett Wilson wide receiver 30 as a rookie, Drake London wide receiver 41 as a rookie, and then Romeo Doubs I
24:37think maybe is another comp for him. He was he had a pretty difficult rookie season. Uh there's not that much competition here. Like, Wan'Dale
24:44Robinson is fine, Calvin Ridley is fine.
24:48You know, they don't really have that a standout tight end, so I kind of have him at this ADP. I like him a lot more
24:54than I do like Jordan Addison one spot apart right here. Um I think there's a chance that he's a lot better than
25:00people are giving him credit for. Like once you're once he's not competing with Jeremiah Smith and once Ohio State's not throwing the football in the fourth
25:06quarter cuz they have like four top-50 picks in the NFL draft on defense. All of a sudden there's going to be more
25:11shootouts and Carnell Tate's just numbers going to look a lot better and he crushed against zone, he crushed against man coverage over three uh yards
25:17per route run in both of those. He's a five-star recruit out of the IMG Academy, balled out early on as at Ohio State uh despite having all that
25:26target competition. So, I think he's a really good football player. I'm hoping Kam Ward gets a lot better here. Um I
25:32think he's going to have like a 20% target uh share as a rookie. I think that's uh pretty exciting.
25:37>> I have another rookie.
25:38Um can I just transition into that?
25:40>> Go for it.
25:41>> Um on the opposite end, I don't think I'll be drafting much Omar Cooper. All right? We're talking about the 12th
25:47round here. Uh it's not like this price is expensive. Again, [snorts] it's wide receiver 59, eighth pick of the 12th round, so 140 overall.
25:56But, it's the story that like you have to tell yourself that he becomes a very strong asset in fantasy football this
26:02season that loses me, okay? First, we're talking about the offense that is projected to score the second fewest points in the league this year. Second
26:09fewest, okay? Despite all the assets that they put in on the offensive side.
26:14Uh they also have an unquestioned alpha in Garrett Wilson. So, this isn't like a first-round wide receiver on paper that we just talked about with Carnell Tate,
26:21who should step in as our number one wide receiver. In fact, they drafted Omar Cooper after already drafting Kanyon Ruke. So, even in this draft
26:30class, he was their second pass catcher that they selected. And I actually think AD Mitchell is likelier to open the season as the X and likelier to be out
26:39there in two tight end sets, which I think we're going to get quite a bit of with Mason Taylor and Kanyon Ruke,
26:46according to, you know, the Jets plans.
26:48So, to recap all of that, we have one of the worst projected offenses with a third-round fantasy draft pick at running back, a
26:56fourth-round fantasy draft pick at wide receiver, and then an awkward opportunity pipeline after that. And to me, if you still want to draft rookies,
27:06there are actually other rookies being selected after him like Denzel Boston or Antonio Williams two rounds later that have a clearer path to targets on
27:17possibly better offenses. Um and even if you want like to do a veteran, Jaylen Nailer in the next round, I think has a
27:25better pathway to targets and is in a projected better offense, too.
27:28>> I got Omar Cooper listed as a lower in the Underdog projections. I think that's like my favorite way to play this cuz
27:33he's projected for 624 yards. Like that would be a really good season, I think, for for Omar Cooper cuz I think what you
27:38said is is very true. Is he going to be out there in three wide receiver sets?
27:42Or in two wide receiver sets? Cuz if he's only out there as like the slot or the flanker only in three wide receiver
27:48sets, that's just not going to cut it.
27:50>> So, is he going to have like 60% route participation? 55%?
27:53>> Right. And, you know, it's Garrett Wilson that you're trying to compete with. So, I think they have to use the
27:58two tight end sets cuz they drafted tight ends really early in back-to-back drafts.
28:03Um and with Omar Cooper, he snuck in there as a first-round wide receiver. My opinion is he was not a first-round wide
28:10receiver talent in general. I liked his yards after the catch ability, but it wasn't anything too crazy. I thought his route running was kind of
28:18raw. His contested catch situation was kind of really up and down. He made some fantastic ones, struggled in other situations. I thought he was a round two
28:25wide receiver. And then in this draft class, you push him up a little bit. Uh I think he's got got a decent enough
28:30floor for the Jets, but in this offense this year, I think it's just asking a lot. Uh so, he's like my wide receiver
28:3570. In like your home leagues, you should not be drafting him.
28:39>> Now, with that said, I I feel like rounds, I don't know, 12 through 18 this year, the the late rounds are lacking in
28:47terms of a talent pool than more so than we've ever had before.
28:50Um that's anecdotal. Maybe that's incorrect, but >> No, that's that's a fact.
28:55>> [laughter] >> It it is tough drafting once you get to, I don't know, round 12, 13, especially 15 through 18. It's it's pretty brutal.
29:01>> Yeah.
29:01>> Um But I I almost just want to rank Jaylen Nailor ahead of Omar Cooper straight up.
29:06And again, I'm like you. I I I like certain aspects of Omar Cooper's game.
29:09Gumby-like movements. Uh you know, he absorbs contact. He he wins on contact.
29:13He's physical after the catch. I know he played more outside in 2024 than he played on the inside in 2025. Uh and
29:21look, maybe Antonio Williams, where he was selected, and we're just banking on opportunity that doesn't work out. Or Denzel Boston being a second-round wide
29:28receiver attached to DeShawn Watson should or Sanders, that doesn't work out. But uh I can already talk myself again into a pipeline of targets for
29:36those three names that I said versus what Omar Cooper is probably going to get this year.
29:40>> I I would guess that Brenden Strange straight up outscores Omar Cooper and he goes after, you know, just one of those
29:46situations.
29:47>> Interesting. Yeah, this is one where like the tight ends can outscore the wide receivers.
29:52>> In this Yeah, yep. That's for sure.
29:55>> Okay, uh we've been agreeing way too much, Hayden. I've had this one name in mind that I was certain you were going to talk about
30:03here today.
30:04Is this your last name?
30:05>> It's a entire team's position that I'm going for and I think you're going to be right. Is it Broncos running backs where
30:11you talk where you kind of uh looking at RB RB? Was it one wasn't >> I'll I'll I'll just say it before you
30:16get started. I saw you tweeting about Luther Burden and I thought you were going to bring Luther Burden to the table here today.
30:21>> I wanted to have that conversation for another show. It's going to be that's going to be like maybe like the most
30:27difficult ranking show. I think that's going to be in there. There's We're going to have a lot of opportunity to talk about Luther Burden, so I did not
30:32uh include him in this show, but the the on-off splits are going to be pretty crazy. You're going to have to pick your
30:36side with Luther Burden, but >> Well, >> for the for the Broncos >> disappointing here real quick, Hayden, because uh I thought you were going to be negative
30:44about Luther and then Ben Johnson, you know, 20 minutes before the episode says, quote, I'm buying Luther Burden stock right now. And so, now I don't
30:50think you have to disagree with me.
30:52>> Yeah, I'm buying Luther Burden stock right now.
30:54>> But also, uh you know, he's head coach and play caller and offensive coordinator.
30:58>> The timing would have been bad and guess what? He was initially on the list. I text Mo Show and Weaves. I said, we're
31:03going to have to pivot today. Uh this is not Today is not the day to come out negative with Luther Burden. So, we have
31:09we have the whole summer for me to be uh more realistic here, but uh uh Luther Burden's fine. Enjoy it. Uh this is the
31:16time for for Luther Burden. Um as for the Broncos running backs, I just think that the entire committee is overpriced. The reality is Sean Payton
31:26wants to use a bunch of running backs and he's got the three very clearly here with Jona Coleman, I think, being an upgrade over
31:34kind of like the rotation they've had at running back three, four the last couple seasons. I don't think that's going to
31:39change. I also want to acknowledge that the Broncos offensive line last year was arguably the best in the NFL. They didn't miss almost any time. They had a
31:47center injury uh late in the year, but the backup center was totally fine. They had one of the best uh guards, uh one of
31:53the two best tackles on both sides there. Are all these guys going to stay healthy? Is Bo Nix going to stay healthy
31:58like he did last year? And then some of the the receiving production that an RJ Harvey could possibly get, all of a
32:05sudden you have Jaylen Waddle and they still have the other manufactured wide receivers that I'm sure going to be involved to a certain degree. So, kind
32:11of everything was going right for the Broncos last year.
32:13And JK Dobbins, he was the running back 25 on running back 29 usage for the first 10 weeks of the season. He's
32:20priced just after that, but he just also broke his foot and like the the reliability for JK Dobbins is too hot uh
32:27too tough to ignore. But I do think that he's going to be the starter cuz they gave him $10 million guaranteed this off
32:32season. So, then you get to RJ Harvey.
32:34And when Dobbins was healthy, RJ Harvey was the RB 36 on RB 54 usage with everything going right for the Broncos.
32:42So, I think someone's going to have to get injured for this to kind of go up.
32:45And you can say that about any of the running backs. Like, what happens to Blake Corum if Kyren Kyren Williams uh goes down? So, I think like he should
32:53be priced closer to the handcuff range.
32:55Uh but I don't want to be trying to like buy J.K. Dobbins either. And then same thing with Zonovan Knight. He's going to
33:01be one of these kind of like late round running backs. Like, could he straight up win the job? I don't think that he
33:06was that good of a prospect. He's kind of old reliable. Like, he's kind of the guy that to me gets in the way of other
33:12guys, but doesn't establish himself as like somebody that's like worthy of like double-digit touches in a game. So, I just I'm looking at Sean Payton. Like,
33:20he's telling us for like a decade here in a row, I want three running backs on the field. And I just don't think that
33:27any of these guys are going to completely run away with the job. And then at that point, it's like, all right. Like, we have like the running
33:32back 33 in fantasy. Like, >> who cares?
33:35>> Uh okay. A few things to hit on here. Um overall, I I think I agree with you. But that's if J.K. Dobbins stays healthy. Um
33:42look, you can always write like J.K.
33:45Dobbins was on pace to have a career season because it's true, but then he just misses games. And I'm I'm not
33:50someone that, you know, is an injury predictor here. But unfortunately, it has happened every single season here for J.K. Dobbins.
33:58>> And big ones. That he It doesn't like miss a game or two. He misses massive chunks of the season. Now, if he stays
34:05healthy, like 2 years ago was one of my favorite picks on the board. And and that was awesome until it wasn't, you
34:11know? Uh and and the thing to back up what you're saying with Sean Payton, um he's never had a back with 250 carries
34:20in one of his offenses. But he has had 24 different backs hit 50 targets. Uh and R.J. Harvey did hit 50 plus targets
34:28last season. Um look, I understand as the running back 20 overall that RJ Harvey early on in the season was not a
34:37fun pick. I will say that one thing during my paternity leave that I vastly disagreed with you on is you naming Cam Akers as the rookie of the
34:47year where to me it easily should have been RJ Harvey over him because like there was this huge portion of the
34:53season where the games mattered most where RJ Harvey was one of the highest scoring running backs in all of fantasy football. I mean weeks of running back
35:016, 9, 4, 5, 11, and 11 during, you know, week 8 through week 17. And so sure, when you watched was some of that on
35:12third downs in the red zone near the goal line that they had these package plays 100%. Um, can that be repeated?
35:19Probably not. But, uh, I also am not ruling out like RJ Harvey kind of improving as a player here in year two
35:25as well.
35:25>> Yeah, without Dobbins available he was the RB 17 on RB 10 usage. Like that's like that's what we're hoping for. I
35:31think we can say that about a bunch of handcuffs that we kind of go into that role. Um, and I still will say the
35:36efficiency metrics for RJ Harvey were pretty tough. He was 42nd in EPA per carry, 32nd in rush yards over expected.
35:44That's out of 46 qualifying running backs behind the best offensive line in football. So, I think he's just very good at football.
35:50>> stuff like the year before with Javonte Williams where it was also really good, like he wasn't a very good fantasy
35:57asset.
35:57>> Yeah, that last year with the Broncos offensive line was probably just a step above even that. Um, but uh, and then
36:02yeah, Bo Nix maybe a slightly better.
36:04It's one of these guys can pay off. Like that's like not not the argument. It's just I think that RJ Harvey is priced
36:10way way higher than a lot of the contingent based guys. And I think right now like the the Broncos signed JK
36:16Dobbins for $10 million guaranteed this year. Like that just happened. It's a lot of money. Uh, and they were also flirting with uh, Travis Etienne. They
36:23were flirting with Kenneth Walker. They were flirting with Jahmyr Gibbs. Like they they made it very clear we want to upgrade the running back position. They
36:30were able just to return it with JK Dobbins, but I do think that they were flirting with a lot of running backs and
36:35like you can read into that being an indictment on RG Harvey like within reason.
36:40>> I think it also make the case that if they didn't have since they didn't have a bigger investment in Jona Coleman,
36:44that's actually the best possible outcome here for RG.
36:47>> Yes, I definitely agree. I just think it was kind of surprising to me like that Dobbins got $10 million. Like that
36:53that's a lot of money. Like that that to me makes it pretty clear. In week one if everyone's healthy, they are assuming JK
36:59Dobbins is going to be the starter. And then obviously if Harvey improves, he can steal his job. I also wanted to
37:05acknowledge RG Harvey that was a very boom bust prospect. Like his athleticism shined, but he's also a 24-year-old coming from UCF
37:12and he's not the biggest guy out there.
37:14So like I'm going into this like all right, does it feel like he's booming or does it feel like he's busting? And like
37:19after this first year to me I'm feeling more like he's going to be on the bust side of the conversation.
37:24>> Yeah, I mean I'm just looking at my notes that I had for RG Harvey. And again, he had to he was drafted as
37:29running back 20 to close drafts, but the final line that I had was again be patient. Give me until week six and this
37:36will pay off in a big way. I had to wait until week eight, but he was the running back 13 in points per game for the rest
37:44of the season in like the point of the calendar which wins and loses your fantasy seasons and he was a major major
37:51asset.
37:52>> Yep, until week 18 and then the playoffs and then did nothing again. So it's like one of those things.
37:56>> talking the fantasy season.
37:58>> No, I know. I know. I whenever just like whenever I'm referencing any metrics on the show, I include the post season
38:03stats cuz obviously those matter like probably more than the regular season stats in general and some of these players we talk about like all of a
38:09sudden like the post season stuff wasn't as exciting and we should probably factor that into to some degree here.
38:14>> Okay, I think that's eight names. Did we cover it?
38:17>> Yeah, three and a couple bonus names.
38:18Jona Coleman takedown on on May 28th, why not?
38:21>> Yeah. I even uh had one that was super late, but maybe we'll save that for uh some some wide receiver sleeper shows in in the future.
38:29By the way, you're seeing these new looks.
38:32Uh we have some, let's say, cool pages and tools on the way uh in a couple of weeks here. So, these are a little tease
38:38whenever you're seeing these new visuals.
38:40Um and in the near future, maybe you'll be able to access them as well. That does it.
38:45I'll be back next week with a couple of episodes. Hopefully, crossing your fingers on an AJ Brown trade. Finally, so our long-serving nightmare can be
38:53over. Uh the trade that apparently was happening a month ago can finally happen. What's up?
38:59>> I almost put AJ Brown and Michael Limon on this list. I was like, "We're Next week we'll probably have all that
39:04covered." So, >> Yeah. I Again, also in my thought was DeVonta Smith being drafted after AJ Brown right now was a part of that, but
39:12uh you know, I landed on the four that I did. All right.
39:16That does it. Again, shout out to all of you that watch these episodes and hit subscribe. You know, there's a portion
39:22who watches and just goes on with their day, but we love we love the ones that for free hit that subscribe button and
39:27also uh leave us a thumbs up cuz the more the people do that, then the more this video will be put in front of other
39:33people's faces. So, shout out to Weaves and Mo Show behind the scenes and Han in front of the camera. Up the Villa,
39:39everyone. We'll talk to y'all soon. See you.
