Underdog Fantasy Football - Josh & Hayden
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
47 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 24, 2026
Published
Wed, June 24, 2026
30
Player insights
24
Players mentioned
Topics
Sam LaPortaChristian WatsonColston LovelandAmon-Ra St. BrownBrian Thomas Jr.Chris OlaveDrake LondonDrake MayeJameson WilliamsJayden ReedJoe AltKeenan AllenKyle PittsLadd McConkey
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveRole0:33
Amon-Ra St. Brown is mentioned as a tertiary Falcons receiver likely to lose snap share under Tommy Reese's heavy personnel scheme.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveProjection0:28
Brian Thomas Jr. was expected to have a breakout second year but did not, similar to other second-year wide receivers.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveValue0:29
Chris Alave was relentlessly drafted last year based on first-down per route run metrics, which is one of the most stable indicators of league-winning wide receivers year-over-year.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue0:40
Christian Watson is one of the best values in drafts because Romeo Doubs and Dontavian Wicks, who previously limited his playing time in two receiver sets, are no longer on the Packers, positioning Watson to be the primary receiver in heavy personnel.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:43
Similar to LaPorta, Christian Watson benefits significantly from increased route participation, with his performance improving when he's on the field more.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue0:44
The analyst is interested in drafting Colston Loveland at tight end, preferring him over middle-tier tight end options.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:46
Colston Loveland is highlighted as a quality tight end option in round four, with round four being a strong round for wide receivers and tight ends.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveBreakout0:56
Drake London was a top-five wide receiver before his PCL injury in week 11, averaging 19.8 PPR points per game, and should continue to benefit from Tommy Reese's heavy personnel scheme with the Falcons.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection0:29
Drake Maye was discussed as a potential league winner in last year's episode.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveRole0:43
It has felt like either a Jameson Williams week or a Sam LaPorta week, as they occupy similar areas on the field with crossing routes and drag routes, with one of them getting opportunities each week rather than both.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeRole0:12
Jaden Reed has basically never played in two receiver sets at any point in his NFL career, with only 1.5% route participation in heavy sets, making him unlikely to compete with Christian Watson for playing time.
Insight pageJoe Alt
PositiveProjection0:47
The Chargers' offensive line efficiency splits with and without Joe Alt last year were huge, and a healthier line should benefit the entire offense including McConkey.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeDepth Chart0:21
The Chargers are unlikely to re-sign Keenan Allen, as he doesn't fit Mike McDaniel's offensive philosophy and was a big reason they played in three and four receiver sets last year.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveRole0:25
Kyle Pitts had the offense run through him after Drake London's return from injury, limiting London's production in the final games.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveBreakout0:06
McConkey is the most clearly analogous candidate to be this year's Jackson Smith-Njigba, with his stats through two seasons being better than JSN's through his first two seasons, and he's positioned to benefit from Mike McDaniel's heavy personnel usage and lack of a clear second/third receiver.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveProjection0:28
Malik Nabers' tape from his rookie season was equally as impressive as Brian Thomas Jr., though he did not have a breakout second year as expected.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveRole0:19
Matthew Golden's route participation in heavy sets was down at 43%, and he's unlikely to be the primary receiver in two receiver sets for the Packers.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
PositiveProjection0:18
Michael Penix Jr. is mentioned as a quarterback concern for the Falcons, though the heavy personnel scheme should still work with his skill set.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
PositiveDepth Chart0:23
Romeo Doubs, who previously dominated two receiver sets for the Packers, is no longer with the team, opening up more opportunities for Christian Watson.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
PositiveUsage0:42
LaPorta has shown 0.7 fantasy points per route run in multi-tight end sets over his career, ranking behind only Puka Nakua, JSN, DeVonte Adams, and Stefon Diggs among wide receivers over the past two years.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:42
LaPorta has spike week potential with five weeks scattered throughout the season where he could have 95% route participation in heavy sets.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:43
LaPorta averages nearly 16 fantasy points per game in games above a 75% route share, showing significant upside if his route participation increases.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:44
The analyst is talking himself more and more into Sam LaPorta as tight end seven overall in the ninth round.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:44
LaPorta is coming off a significant back injury that resulted in immediate placement on injured reserve last year, though he recently returned to jogging at OTAs.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveValue0:46
Terry McLaurin is mentioned as a solid round four wide receiver option alongside other quality receivers in that round.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveRole0:24
Trey Harris was the most-used receiver in single wide receiver sets with multiple tight ends on the field last year, but his usage was often as a blocker rather than a pass-catcher, and McConkey is more likely to be the primary receiver in heavy personnel pass plays.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
PositiveProjection0:18
Tua Tagovailoa is mentioned as a concern for the Falcons offense, though the heavy personnel scheme should still work with his skill set.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveRole0:11
Tucker Kraft was healthy at times for the Packers and participated in two tight end sets, but his availability is uncertain going forward.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveValue0:44
The analyst is particularly interested in drafting Tyler Warren at tight end, preferring him over middle-tier tight end options.
Insight pageZachariah Branch
NegativeRole0:33
Zachariah Branch and other tertiary Falcons receivers are likely to lose snap share as Tommy Reese brings a heavier, tight end-centric offensive scheme.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Never again, never again will we let such an obvious league winning pick like
0:05Jackson Smith and Jigua slip out from underneath our nose. That's why today's show is all about identifying the six
0:12perfect fantasy picks that are still out there that aren't getting enough attention. And to guide us through all
0:19of that is the great Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. Ryan, you did it again, my friend. You gave us another banger of
0:26an article this summer. Thank you, man. Yeah, I really appreciate that. It's It's always I you never know like which articles are going
0:32to really get a good response. And I I was not expecting this one to honestly. This was very much like I'm nerding out
0:39about this topic. I'm just thinking about personnel changes and stuff and how it could affect fantasy football.
0:44Like I really thought this would be my little hobby horse thing and that it wouldn't like catch on the way it did.
0:49But yeah, re really happy with the response and yeah, just I as you said, I just never want to make the mistake of
0:57missing Jackson Smith and Jigba like I did last year. So that really kind of inspired this whole research and this
1:03entire piece. Yeah, I think he was going as wide receiver 15 last year on underdog. I had him ranked exactly as wide receiver 15
1:10and then as soon as the season started to unfold, you realize I was way too low on him and I could have easily just a
1:16couple wide receiver spots ahead of that uh had him on every single team. And I I love this topic because we've already
1:23hit on a couple times. So, this is like the deepest we're going to go in it all summer long. It's this perfect intersection of how real life football
1:31can then impact fantasy scoring for a position that is kind of go undergoing
1:37some change as we've seen it in recent years. And not just that, it's not just identifying which teams this could
1:43happen based on last year's numbers. It's also predicting which ones have invested so much in the tight end or
1:49fullback rooms, which then minimizes how many wide receivers are on the field. And so that leaves like a prediction
1:55element on top of this as well. So like again the the lead that you had here was
2:01you know JSN went from rarely playing in two wide receiver sets last year to 51%
2:06of his production coming from two wide receiver sets in 2025 which made up just
2:1238% of his total routes. So was that it? Was it just missing out on JSN was the
2:18reason why you wanted to write this article? It was partially that. So that that had been in my mind just because I was I've
2:25been a Clint Kubak believer in Booster including last offseason, but I ended up just being on Ken Walker. I I think we
2:31discussed that on this show that we were all very high on Ken Walker. And it would have worked, Ryan, if we
2:36just got, you know, the playoff usage all season long. Exactly. Yeah. So whatever. Vindicated on that. Not really, but I we can cope.
2:44But yeah, the other like big kind of Kubiakis ism that I knew about last
2:50offseason but just didn't put enough stock in, didn't think about enough with regard to JSN was, yeah, the condensed
2:57routes just in terms of he would drop back a lot with only two wide receivers
3:02on the field. That increases the efficiency of whatever wide receivers
3:07remain. I I have the numbers laid out at the top of the article, but yeah, it's roughly a 30% increase just for going
3:14from three receivers on the field to two receivers on the field in terms of fantasy points per route run just
3:20because it's yeah, easier to earn targets against fullbacks and blocking tight ends and such. So, yeah, that was
3:26part of why I wrote it. Also, we saw in the NFL draft that teams are taking sort
3:32of the 12 personnel and heavy personnel revolution very, very seriously. Uh, we
3:38see even I I'm not sure that every team is doing it correctly necessarily. Maybe we'll talk about Yeah. the Jaguars or
3:45whatever, but yeah, they're they're all trying. They're drafting blocking tight ends very early. It is going to be at at
3:51least a thing that NFL teams are trying to do this year. So, yeah, it it's kind of left to us to diagnose and figure out
3:59how all of it's going to shake out on each team. And that that's really what I tried to do with this article for any of
4:04the teams that I had a good feeling about uh or that I could make a good like fantasy relevant argument about in
4:10terms of a shift from 11 personnel to 12 personnel or vice versa. Once again, we's going to show some
4:16graphics from the article. Obviously, that is linked in the description down below. I really encourage all of you to
4:22check it out. Uh Ryan, you brought a whole bunch of information here for this episode. And again, we're going to talk about the six or more names that really
4:28headline this article, but laying the foundation, I think, is really important. And I'm just not going by the information you brought, Ryan. I I did a
4:34little bit myself here, too, of of digging in research. So, like what I found the highest percentage of pass
4:40attempts in two wide receiver sets or less last season was the Baltimore Ravens around 58%. There were a handful
4:47of teams in like the mid 40% but to me the biggest changes go into exactly what
4:53you're talking about. The ones the organizations that were near the bottom of the list last year that heavily
4:59invested in bigger bodies this off seasonason. I mean the Texans last season just 74 passes in two wide
5:06receiver sets or less. Then they spent a second round pick on a tight end and also signed Foster Maro. The Chargers
5:12were a 100 pass attempts. They signed Charlie Kolar, David and Jooku, Alec Engold. The Jaguars 104 as you said the
5:19infamous already. Nate Borercher selection in round two. The Jets 107,
5:24Kenan Sadique round one. And the Saints were 24th with 114 pass attempts with
5:29two wide receivers or fewer on the field last season. And they also added Oscar Delp and Noah Fand. And again, that's
5:35anywhere from teams that rank 24th through 32nd. And that doesn't even include the middle section of of, you
5:42know, the NFL last year. So, I'm excited for this. I don't know how we want to start, but should we just dig into some
5:49of the names that you believe could be quote unquote this year's Jackson Smith and J? Yeah, let's do it. We can just start
5:54with the biggest name, the one that just leapt to me immediately that I felt the
6:00best about as I kind of wrote everyone in this article. I I was like, this is the headliner. Uh, it's Lad McConi for
6:06me. I I think he is the most clearly analogous uh candidate to be this year's
6:12Jackson Smith and Jigba. Um it the biggest thing is yes, as you just laid
6:18out, they add all of these fullbacks and all these tight ends. We have the history from Mike McDaniel uh when he
6:25was with the Dolphins was always among the league leaders in terms of dropping back in sets with two or fewer wide
6:33receivers. Right. We look at the Chargers personnel. Yeah, they add Charlie Kar, uh, Alec Engold, they are
6:39clearly building to be a bit heavier. Uh, their receiving personnel is kind of Lad McConi and a bunch of guys that
6:47might be good in partial roles. I Trey Harris has has his fans. Quinton Johnson has his fans. Uh, but there's no like
6:54clear second or third receiver that is going to demand, oh, I have to be on the field in 11 personnel. There have to be
7:01three receivers on the field. like it's not clear at all that that's their best
7:06way of operating. So what that means is if Vlad Makoni is the guy that never
7:13leaves the field and I I as I said I think he's the best candidate for that right now on the Chargers uh then we can
7:20see just a massive efficiency increase from him. Uh real life-wise I think
7:26MCONI is an excellent player. We saw that in his rookie season. uh all of his
7:32separation metrics through his rookie year and parts of his year two were excellent uh from what we track over at
7:38Fantasy Points data. Uh and if you just kind of take his first two seasons uh
7:45overall together without like ordering, oh well, he went from really good in year one to disappointing us a little
7:50bit in year two. His stats through two seasons are better than Jackson Smith and Jiggbas were through his first two
7:57seasons. like he's been a more productive NFL player over his first two years. So, if we're looking for a year
8:04three breakout in terms of has this receiver gotten to like a production threshold that we would want to feel
8:12okay about a breakout possibly happening, McConi easily clears that or at least he clears it more than JSN did
8:18last year. So, I I think the two other big things to kind of watch are of
8:23course will the Chargers resign Keenan Allen? Uh, I don't think they will. I don't think he fits what McDaniel wants
8:30to do. Uh, Allen was a big reason why they were in three and four receiver sets so often last year and spreading it
8:36so much. Uh, which is odd for Greg Roman, not what you would have expected, but it I think he kind of forced them to
8:42play like that with all these receivers on the field. Uh, and of course the offensive line is hopefully, fingers
8:49crossed with the Chargers as always going to be much healthier. the yeah the efficiency splits with and without Joe
8:55Alt last year are huge. So yeah, all of these things come together for me and and say yeah Lad McConi is the most
9:02analogous to JSN if you're betting on a receiver in round three, round four to
9:07kind of take that leap. He makes the most sense to me. And a new play caller on top of it, right? Because we know like a shift just
9:13in a a play caller's mindset changes how a player gets utilized the the year
9:19before. There's so much that you hit on there that I want to really dissect a whole bunch of the pieces. This time last year, Hayden and I got a lot of
9:26heat when we reviewed the secondyear wide receivers saying Lad Mcconkey's tape, and this is just eye test
9:32anecdotal stuff, right, was equally as impressive as Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr., I still believe that from
9:39his rookie season. I mean, how easily he separates um how he kind of plays bigger than his frame than I expected coming
9:45out of Georgia was really exciting. And that led everyone, all of us, to willingly draft Vlad Makoni last season
9:52as a 21st overall player. And now we're able to get him as the 41st overall player kind of in the middle of the
9:59fourth round territory. And we know what happened second year. Really, none of these secondyear wide receivers really
10:05took off as we are previously expecting. But it goes back to how you are
10:10discussing that obviously all wide receivers are more efficient when there are fewer wide receivers on the field.
10:16Again, it makes sense that that one or two wide receivers are better than the tight end two or tight end three or even
10:22fullback one in this case at commanding and and drawing a target. But that's what we're getting here with Mike
10:27McDaniel, right? It's not just necessarily two tight ends or three tight ends. It's also a fullback involved and it's the one that already
10:33knows his offense in in Alec Engold. So, as you wrote, Vladim Manunki only ran
10:3910% of his routes from sets with fewer than three wide receivers this past season. Comparison, that number was 46%
10:46with Mike McDaniel with Jaylen Wadd out there. So, we are funneling the best pass catcher hopefully in Lan Maki on
10:53this team more and more opportunity and more and more in those opportunities uh to be clearly the number one pass
11:00catcher on his team. Yeah, 100%. Yeah, couldn't couldn't have said it better myself. Um that's yeah
11:05that's really what it is to me. I there are other receivers you can make kind of similar arguments for, but just in in
11:12terms of it being a young player year three who has e even down to like them
11:19being archetype-wise thought of as like oh they're kind of more slot type of players like McConi being able to move
11:27to an everyown role uh win on the outside which he has like his per route stats his separation all of that on the
11:32outside has been great throughout his career. uh even that like piece kind of fits in terms of comparing him to Smith
11:39and Jigba. So yeah, he he's just been my go-to in round four basically just he's he's the breakout I'm betting on there.
11:46I I I totally hear you. Like there are some other round four wide receivers that I like and you know Terry McLaren
11:51close to the end of it. Obviously Coulson Loveland I'm a big Luther Burton guy and hecka is in that round. So uh
11:57round four is just like such such a much better round to select players and the
12:02running backs I have questions about. So, it's it's like heavy wide receiver or tight end for me in round four. Two
12:07more points on this. I love how you noted that actually Lad Maconi had more production than JSN through two NFL
12:14seasons before the year three breakout, which you know, it can be easy to forget about that with Jackson Smith and Jiga
12:20heading into his year three season in 2025. Uh, one question I did have for you. We kind of were thrown a wrench or
12:27wrinkle last year in this offense, and again that was with Greg Roman, but when they were in single wide receiver sets
12:33with multiple tight ends on the field, Trey Harris was the one that had the most wide receiver usage among any of
12:39these guys, and it was kind of split equally between the group after that. What do you think the odds are that Trey Harris once again owns the 13 personnel
12:45looks or 22 personnel looks this season? Well, I think it's important to differentiate when we're just looking at
12:52snap shares in these sets, right? Because yes, Trey Harris was the one
12:57receiver in those sets a lot of the time last year, but that's not always because they're dropping back out of those sets,
13:03right? A lot of the times that's because we want Trey Harris on the field as a blocker because we're going to run the ball out of heavy sets and teams overall
13:11more often do run the ball out of heavy sets. what we're looking for is who's going to be on the field when they're
13:16actually going to drop back out of the heavy sets and and that's like from a kind of a bigger like picture
13:22perspective that's like what the advantage or quote unquote like the efficiency hack is here right uh th this
13:30was a big topic with the Rams last year uh with Greg Olson talking about it for weeks at a time like teams figuring out
13:38the Rams Seahawks especially that they they can just drop back out of these heavy sets especially If their personnel
13:44is such that they can run or pass out of them, it just makes the job of the defenses much harder to match that
13:51personnel. Are you defending the pass? Uh are you bringing bigger bodies on the field to defend the run? It it's like
13:57very very difficult. Um so yes, while Trey Harris maybe is the best run
14:02blocker and if they're just going to run out of heavy personnel, it could just be him. I really think if if they're
14:08serious about we want to be multiple, be able to run or pass out of these sets and just be as efficient as possible on
14:15offense, then you want your best pass catcher as the wide receiver on the field there. Love that. Again, last year's show you
14:21came on, we talked about some potential league winners. We brought up Ken Walker at the top of the show, but let's also
14:26not forget that, you know, we discussed Drake May on this episode. Chris Alave was a player that you and I were
14:31relentlessly drafting last year. I think it was because of, you know, the first down per route run metric that you
14:36brought up where that is kind of the most stable between league winning wide receivers year on year. Um, so, you
14:43know, I think this is a pretty good episode for people to tune into. Okay. I'm relentlessly drafting Vladimony at
14:49this time. Who's next up on your list here that we should be paying attention to? Um, let's uh let's go to Drake London.
14:56Okay. Uh, he's I guess a bit more of an obvious one go going in round two, of
15:01course. Uh and of course last year he did he already was somewhat benefiting
15:07from more heavy personnel. Um but we should expect to see something similar
15:13uh with Tommy Reese as the play caller. Uh he was calling the plays for the Browns through most of last year. Uh has
15:21always been kind of a he a heavier like more tight end centric offense uh even
15:26back when he was at Notre Dame. So that gives us very likely fewer receivers for
15:33Drake London to compete with. Uh so you're kind kind of tertiary Falcons
15:38receivers. Zachariah Branch, Alam Zakias, all these guys probably losing out somewhat in terms of snapshare. Uh
15:46and when you just look at how London performed in these heavy sets, it was
15:51incredible. uh with two or few wide two or fewer wide receivers on the field last year. London was up at 3.13 yards
15:58per out run, 61 fantasy points per out run. Uh that was nearly twice as much as
16:06any other Falcons receiver on those plays. Uh and of course, even without
16:11like getting into the weeds of heavy personnel, uh Drake London was amazing last year before he injured his PCL. Uh
16:17he was averaging 19.8 PPR points per game. He was the wide receiver three uh
16:22up until week 11. Of course, he came back for a few games, which is pretty rare. Players usually don't come back
16:29from PCL injuries. Didn't play that well. Kyle Pittz was just kind of having the offense run through him. To me, it's
16:36like much more real that London is dominating there from heavy personnel. I expect that to just continue. and he's
16:44being drafted kind of as if that didn't happen last year, like as if he wasn't a top five wide receiver for the entire
16:51season up until the injury. So, he's one he's one where it's like it it could be a similar kind of heavy personnel
16:57situation, but that gives me like more confidence in him as like one of the best picks in round two right now. Yeah. Over on underdog, he's the wide
17:03receiver seven smack dab in the middle of round two. We wax poetic about Drake London. It's so cool to see him already
17:09get paid. And as you talked about here with the play callers, it's Tommy Reese and obviously Kevin Sansky coming over as head coach. We'll talk about someone
17:16from his tree a bit later on with Drew Ping in Detroit as well. These guys love multiple tight end sets. So while the
17:22league it kind of is being commercialized as they are chasing the LA Rams with 13 personnel stuff, Drew
17:29Petting and you know Kevin Sansky have been running these you know heavy tight end personnel offenses for like the past
17:35two and three years you know so he's just going to bring that right to Atlanta. So like while you could say
17:42sure last season with the Falcons their wide receiver depth was really a disaster and so they ran a lot more of
17:4912 personnel so they could get Cal Pitts onto the field even more. Uh I think you can say the exact same thing here again
17:55when it comes to this offense like I think out of 12 13 and 21 personnel the Browns had the second most pass plays
18:02across the league. So if we can just copy and paste this even if the concerns are with Tua Tonga Biloa and Michael
18:08Penn at quarterback we've kind of gotten that styling of quarterback over the last couple seasons and like you said
18:14Drake London coming back from that PCL when people rarely do. So there's rarely any data coming from it. He was a wide
18:21receiver 71 and I think like 113 in the first two games coming back which kind
18:26of skews his you know entire season fantasy uh outlook. Speaking of contract extensions, let's talk about Christian
18:32Watson. I know that's one of your favorite players this summer. Let's talk about the uh heavily handsomely paid
18:39wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. Oh yes. Yeah. Christian Watson, one of my favorite players in the NFL. It it
18:44was a very fun day to watch him get paid. Enjoy that. Uh but yeah, I think
18:50he even before he got paid, I think he was just one of the best values in drafts because of kind of the the
18:59personnel puzzle that the Packers present this year. So kind you can argue
19:04either way honestly on whether you think they'll play more three receiver sets or more two receiver sets. They like to do
19:10some two tight end stuff when Tucker Craft was healthy. Uh they certainly can
19:15play 11 personnel with Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed, but what's really important is that just looking at
19:23what they did in two receiver sets last year, uh those were dominated largely by
19:29Romeo Dobs, who's no longer there, uh and Dontavian Wixs would mix in some who was also no longer there. uh a And who
19:36was like the most direct kind of rotate rotation piece with Christian Watson
19:41kind of limiting his playing time at different points over his career. Uh so when you just look at the receivers they
19:47have left uh Watson played on 62% of the
19:52Packers drop backs from two or fewer receiver sets on them. He averaged 3.18
19:58yards per out run uh which was eighth best in the NFL. And you look at Matthew Golden there, uh, his route particip
20:06participation in the heavy sets down at 43%, Jaden Reed down at 1 and a.5% has
20:11basically never played in two receiver sets at any point in his NFL career. So,
20:16what this kind of does, uh, compared to last year where we had five receivers just rotating through and never really
20:23hitting full-time usage outside of Romeo Dobs, just kind of being parked there on the field. Uh, I think Watson just will
20:30be that receiver now. It is what seems most likely to me based on prior usage.
20:35He's just had the most play in those sets last year. And of of course, they
20:41just paid him the most. But also, whenever he has been in a full-time route share over his career, 13 games
20:48above 75% of the routes, he's averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game. He's been the wide receiver six. So re
20:55like and of course like everyone says oh but the injuries with Christian Watson like I get all that but really whether
21:03it's injuries or the obnoxious like route rotation that Laflur had running
21:08there for a couple years. It really is just playing time that has been the only limiting factor on Watson being like a
21:15fantasy football superstar. And yeah, because of just how the personnel logic
21:20works out where Reed is unlikely to play in two receiver sets and even if he does, it's probably because Matthew
21:26Golden can't hack it rather than because they have Watson on the bench. It It's like, yeah, you what conclusion are we
21:33left with other than Watson's basically never going to leave the field? He has always been amazing when he's been on
21:40the field. Uh, and yeah, that's that's really it to me. So, yeah, he's one of
21:46my favorite values in all of drafts right now. You know, I think you and I can kind of get stuck in this fantasy football
21:52bubble a little bit, whereas many people out there in your home league drafts, I think you can take advantage of a lot of
21:58almost misnomers of what the Packers have been previously and who Christian Watson is and really get tremendous
22:05value of where he's going to go in your home leagues. I mean, even right now on best ball sites, he's going as wide
22:11receiver 30 at the end of the fifth round, the five six turn. I still think that's undervalued. And Ryan, it's it's
22:17weird nowadays. I think it's kind of rare for a player to get paid like this. And it can be extremely divisive. And
22:24that's exactly what we got here with Christian Watson. And I think it is because of those injuries and missed games. Like again, in 2023, only played
22:31nine games. in 2025, 10 games, has never had a season with more than 620 uh
22:37receiving yards over seven touchdowns. Whereas you and I saw that contract and
22:42we watched him play football last year and we look at the underlying metrics and I know it was his fourth season in
22:49the league, but he took a major jump in just in terms of development. And I understand so many of us look at wide
22:55receivers and say, "Well, they are who they are after year two or year three." That's really not the case with Christian Watson. They have put in time
23:03and effort to make him a complete wide receiver now. And on the field last year, he was a complete wide receiver.
23:10Like we all remember the high variance downfield vertical shots that he hit with Aaron Rogers in his rookie season
23:15and love those whenever he's been on the field. But last year, the big difference was he got gimmies. You know, like just
23:22if we're talking about out routes, 7.7% of his targets prior to last season in the first three years of his career made
23:29up of out routes that jumped up to 35%. The A dot was lower. Those are on
23:34critical third and fourth down, second and long situations. We got to have it. We got to we got to have someone move
23:40the chains. And that was Christian Watson. So now he just attacks multiple
23:45areas of the field, every single blade of grass, an offense that we do want pieces of, and finally a a a personnel
23:52grouping that is now obvious. Like, am I allowed to say that about the Green Bay Packers now that
23:58you know, Jaden Reed has barely ever played in two wide receiver sets. He's going to have to probably do that some
24:03this year. Matthew Golden, there have been a bit of question marks even if you like the film after his rookie season.
24:08The only real tried and true and trusted pass catcher. He's gonna be out there all the time in that Romeo Dobsesque
24:16manner is Christian Watson now. And he is like tears above in terms of explosiveness and big playability. So I
24:23am again relentlessly drafting one of these names and his name is Christian Watson. Cravings aren't just about
24:28nicotine. They're about the habit. The hand to mouth motion oral fixation. The
24:33momentary pause when the loop is broken. Cravings spike. Fume replaces your habit
24:38with a flavored air fidget device that gives your hands and mouth something to
24:44do. Distracting cravings without nicotine, vapor, or batteries. It's simple. It's natural. And honestly, it's
24:51kind of genius. Like, there's no nicotine, there's no batteries, there's no vapor. Just a weighted, twisty, fidget friendly tool that gives your
24:57hands something better to reach for when cravings show up. I mean, we all have that moment when we crave something. For
25:04me, when I'm working, it's snacks. Like, they cannot be around my desk. So, instead, I just have gum laying around
25:10to replace my craving. If you vape, grab your fume instead. Especially with flavors like crisp mint and raspberry.
25:18So, if you're ready to break the habit, now's a great time to try fume. Right now, when you grab a journey pack,
25:25you'll get a free fume topper just for using our code the show. The Fume Topper
25:31adds a soft, replaceable, chewable mouthpiece, giving your mouth something safe to chew when cravings hit. So, grab
25:37this offer while it's available. So, head to tryfume.com, that's trfum.com,
25:45and use code the show to get your free fume topper with your journey pack.
25:50Moving on, Ryan. Uh, one more wide receiver and I'm not going to say he's
25:56towards the sunset of his career, even if I want to say he's in the sunset of his career, but seeing Mike Evans on a
26:02new team in the San Francisco 49ers, I also think leaves some room from and
26:08that that like allows us to attack some uncertainty here. So, what do you think Mike Evans 2026 is going to look like?
26:14So, I the way that I kind of put this is when we're when we're looking back on
26:21this year of Mike Evans after the season, it it will seem very obvious that that was always how it was going to
26:27work out. And it and it can work out in one of two ways. Uh he can be amazing.
26:33He can be the best pure like talented receiver that Kyle Shanahan has had
26:38since Julio Jones. uh like just massively benefiting from all of these
26:44two or fewer wide receiver sets that he never really got to enjoy in Tampa Bay.
26:49Uh where he has been what like yeah 36%
26:54more efficient from those sets over his career, 34% target per run with two or fewer receivers on the field. Uh when
27:02that is like all that Kyle Shanahan has done because he loves using fullbacks so
27:07much. uh he of course would would have George KD on the field, but if if KD's injured early in the year, then a tight
27:14end who's not George KD on the field, Jake Tongis or whoever, uh if he's using a blocking wide receiver in the F role,
27:21if that's going to be just Dean Stribbling, uh like there are a lot of eligible receivers that Shanahan likes
27:29putting on the field who are not immediate target earning threats, right? So that that just makes somebody like
27:36Mike Evans so much more appealing. It just can create so much more efficiency,
27:41like target magnetism for him. He's always run hot on touchdowns every single season of his career. Uh but I
27:48would love to see that in a Kyle Shanahan offense essentially. Like the the ingredients are there for this to be
27:54a completely special like top five wide receiver season in fantasy. not that
28:01different than what we saw with Devonte Adams, but just maybe with even more like more complete production that's not
28:07just at the two yard line, right? So, that that's like one side of it and
28:12that's where I fall ultimately with Evans. I do think that that this riskreward is worth it. But the the
28:18other way it could go that will also seem very obvious in hindsight uh is he could tear his hamstring in week three
28:24playing next to the electrical substation. Like that that is totally a possible world we could live in. I hope
28:30it's not. Uh but that that's really if Evans stays on the field and is healthy,
28:35I I am pretty confident he's going to smash. Uh he he's been like top three in all of our separation metrics at fantasy
28:42points over each of the past two years. Even though he's been playing through these lower body injuries for a lot of
28:48that time. So it's just what in terms of like old guy wide receiver that I'm
28:53willing to bet on this year, it's definitely Evans. Yeah, I can see thousands of people rolling their eyes that we just hyped up Christian Watson
29:00and Mike Evans. Uh just, you know, people hate drafting injured players and
29:05they've been among the two most injured players over the last few years. I mean, Mike Evans hamstrings go back about five
29:10years in terms of giving us concerns on a weekly basis. At the same time, again, I think that's an area where you can
29:15take advantage of your league mates doing the exact same thing, not wanting to draft these guys and you playing for
29:21upside, you drafting for upside. Because if we get long stretches of the season, 12, 14, 16 games out of both of these
29:27players, then the upside is there for them to be really season defining
29:33assets. Uh, as you put it, I mean, again, Evans only ran 16% of his routes with fewer than three wide receivers on
29:40the field the past two years in Tampa. Again, the reason why we like Kyushek
29:45being on the field or both KD and Tanes or Luke Ferrell on the field is because
29:50then that gets the narrower and narrower target tree to these wide receivers. And Jawan Jennings, which isn't the one
29:56toone replacement for Mike Evans, by the way, but he was up at 44% uh last season
30:01in 2025 in terms of uh routes with two or fewer or excuse me, three or few or
30:06fewer wide receivers on the field. Um I do expect Stribbling to like kind of get that role. I thought he could be the
30:12best blocking wide receiver from his class. But, uh, I I just think it's cool
30:17when we get someone like Mike Evans in an offense run by Kyle Shanahan because it's almost like a fantasy draft and in
30:24Madden is the only way of doing that in the past. And we can have like one final season, one final season for him to like
30:29really leave his mark, I think. Right. So, we've talked all wide receivers so far, but with how there's been so much
30:36overlap between the wide receiver and tight end position uh in drafts recently
30:42and how young that tight end position is getting across the league. I also feel like Ryan, and you can elaborate more on
30:48this, that not only can, you know, these heavier personnel packages enhance a
30:53wide receiver season, it can also do that for like alpha receiving types at
30:59the tight end position, too. That's right. And I think the the biggest area to kind of look for here is
31:07there are some tight ends that are kind of on the borderline in terms of they're
31:12really good receivers and they're like good enough receivers that you just want to play them on every down in line even
31:18if they're not like the most amazing blockers because it's a worthy trade-off, right? I I would put Colton
31:24Lovelin through parts of his rookie season kind of in that bucket. Uh, and I
31:29I would put Sam Laaporta through a lot of his uh, career so far kind of in that bucket like they're good enough in line
31:36to get away with it. You want them on the field, right? Uh, but what that can sometimes lead to uh, as we saw with
31:43Coulson Loveland as a rookie and Laaporta at times is they can be kind of borderline in terms of their playing
31:49time. Like those guys are much closer to like 70% route share tight ends, right?
31:55We really want like 80% 85% in like the Trey McBride area to to get like those
32:01super high upside tight end seasons. And I I think that the shift to heavy
32:06personnel to more multiple tight end sets, it can really help out those guys that are already amazing receivers that
32:14you want on the field anyway. But just having more 12 personnel sets, bringing
32:19a second tight end or a third tight end onto the field uh and just so that you
32:25are in that heavy personnel, not giving that up uh in terms of the run threat either. It that can just create so much
32:32more playing time for them and so many more opportunities. So, case in point, uh, just looking at last year when the
32:39Bears were in 13 personnel, one wide receiver, uh, three tight end sets,
32:44Loveland was running a route on 98% of those dropbacks, which is awesome.
32:49That's exactly what you want. So, if the Bears, after they drafted Sam Roush, uh, still have Cole Kimett under contract, I
32:56if that's if you're taking that as a signal that they're going to really ramp up the two and three tight end sets,
33:02that that can only be amazing for Coloulston Lovelin just because he he's always going to be on the field for
33:08them. Like, arguably, that's why they want to do it to keep Coulson Lovelin on the field even more. Uh, Lovelin's
33:14efficiency on those plays over 4.6 six yards per out run. 53% of the Bears
33:19receiving yards on those plays. You could kind of see also where Loveland had his big kind of productive breakout
33:26toward the tail end of last season. That was also when the Bears started shifting to a lot more 12 and 13 personnel. of
33:34course partly brought on uh by the injuries at receiver Roma Dunay's injury but it really stuck with it and like the
33:42yeah just the the volume production for Lovelin stayed around uh that yeah and that their offseason moves suggest that
33:49that's kind of what they want to go into this year doing. So yeah, I'm only left with the assumption or the the
33:56conclusion that Lovelind just belongs in the elite tight end tier. I I have him
34:02ranked pretty close with Trey McBride. I I think it's ridiculous that you were saying earlier that round four is
34:08amazing. I agree. Right. The only thing that sucks about round four is there's so many amazing players. I want to draft in it. Like Lovelin should be a round
34:15three ADP. To me, it's a little absurd to me that he's in round four. He's at the four five turn, Ryan. I
34:22mean, he's the 46th overall pick, the 10th pick of of the fourth round. There's so much there that that you
34:27said. Um, one big question I have for you first, though. So, we haven't had a
34:32team, at least this past season, like just totally live out of 12 personnel, right? The number one team last year in
34:38in just simply two tight end sets was the Cleveland Browns at 44%. With how
34:45the Bears are constructed this year with Coulson Lovelin, Cole KT, and Luther
34:50Burton and Roma Dunay, and really no wide receiver depth after that. Do you think there is like what percentage
34:57chance would you give that the Bears finish this season over 50% out of 12
35:02personnel? Oh wow. I have I haven't really considered giving a percentage to this.
35:08I It can't be that high just because we haven't really seen that before uh
35:13recently in the NFL, a team being over 50%. But like I'd give it like a a 25 to 30%
35:20chance that that happens. And that's like insanely exciting. Even even that is like exciting even because even if it's
35:2640% then that's amazing for everything we're saying, right? Yeah. And maybe I should even throw in, you
35:32know, the the 13 personnel looks, right? Because you bring in Sam Rous who like truly is a a run blocker. And this gives
35:39you an an opportunity for Coulson Lovelin to not arguably only be their
35:45just best pass catcher overall, but then when you go into two tight end sets,
35:50it's him and then Roman Luther. Then when you get into 13 personnel, then that is Luther and Rome competing to be
35:57the only wide receiver on the field. And then easily, if not the number one, then it's number two pass catcher on the
36:03field being Coulson Lovelin. Uh I'm so excited for this. I am amp for this. I
36:09mean, I I thought coming out of Michigan that Coulson Lovelin could just be a key cog and define an entire offense's
36:16passing game. And we really saw that down the stretch. Uh, it's somewhat
36:22uncommon for this to happen in the NFL now, Ryan, but like I'm not gonna ask you for another percentage, but I think
36:27the odds are are pretty decent that Coulson Lovelin just is the best pass catcher on the Chicago Bears this year
36:34in terms of yards, in terms of touchdowns, in terms of receptions, and we're able to get that as a tight
36:39end three like you said in in round four. And typically, we'd have to draft that with Travis Kelce in round one or,
36:46you know, Brock Bowers in round two. Yeah, I I will give you a percent. I I'm I'm at like 60 to 65% that that Lovelin
36:54just leads the Bears in all receiving categories. Yeah, that's that's where I'm at. Yeah. And look, he really didn't get
37:00going last year until what about week six or week seven. The Ben Johnson really took his time getting both
37:06Coulson Lovelin and Luther Burton and even Cal Manungai involved until after that bye-week. But the underlying
37:12metrics, as you said, are simply insane when it's two wide receivers or fewer
37:17and especially just one wide receiver uh on on the field. So, I'm I cannot wait
37:23for what this offense looks like. And while I think this next off seasonason they'll have to maybe move on from Cole
37:30KT and then we really just get two tight ends on the field, we should really enjoy this moment of hey the Bears have
37:38three legit tight ends on the roster if they all stay healthy and that will only accentuate Coulson Loveland even more
37:43this season. And I know we're talking about 13 personnel so much and what the Rams if you include the Super Bowl and
37:49the regular season had like 20% of their
37:54pass attempts out of 13 personnel. Like it's not this gigantic number, but as you're saying, if in those moments you
38:01get someone with a 4.6 yards per rout and 53% market share like you're getting of receiving yards in Coulson Loveland,
38:08then that 20% can win you weeks in fantasy football. It's really that simple. Yeah. And I do I I will like caveat of
38:15course that I I do think 13 personnel specifically three tightons on the field overall. It has been like over discussed
38:22like I think it's really just the Rams and Bears capable of doing it uh in a way that makes any sense just with the
38:28personnel that they have. So I I don't think that that specifically is going to be like what takes the NFL by storm. But
38:34yeah, it it's just it's very team by team. Like I think people are a little too black and white with how they with
38:40how they think about this stuff like NFLwide. But yeah, that specifically with the Bears, I'm I'm all in and I'm
38:47excited and I think it could really matter. And I probably should have said this at the top, but this is obvious, but one
38:52main reason why teams are are utilizing that is because, you know, these defenses were not honoring 12 personnel
38:58as much as they previously did. like they weren't just going to base because of 12 personnel stuff because they thought, hey, our fifth defensive back
39:06uh could stick up to your second tight end and we are not worried about, you know, getting run on in those
39:11situations. So then they took an extra layer and said, "Okay, actually we're going to add another body onto the field and now force you into these personnel
39:18groupings uh that we want you to just in terms of heavier and slower players." Okay. You said you only really believe
39:25it with the Rams and the Bears. I think I can make a pitch that the Detroit Lions should be part of that. You you
39:32mentioned Sam Laora and I don't think it's been an unders discussed topic, but I just want to reiterate that Drew
39:37Petting from Arizona uh is now the play caller, the offensive coordinator for
39:43the Detroit Lions. And while the Rams have kind of taken the mantle of being the 13 personnel team, Drew Petting will
39:50tell you that over the last two years, he's kind of done it the most, you know, and that was with
39:55Trey McBride and Tip Ryman, who was a, you know, day two just pure blocking tight end, and then Elijah Higgins. So,
40:02this guy has been willing to do it with kind of two lesser tight end talents out
40:07there. And then on this team, you now have Sam Laaporta, you have Brock Wright, who kind of fills that blocking
40:13role. And then you bring in Tyler Conklin, who's also a viable veteran third tight end. So over the past two
40:20seasons, when you combine them, second most passing plays out of 13 personnel, the third most plays overall out of 13
40:26personnel and tied for the most 15 plus yard passing plays out of it with with 28. So, while this team in the past has
40:34had multiple wide receivers, and we'll see how much they think about Isaac Tesla to live out of 11, uh, if Sam
40:40Leaport is healthy, I think this could be a team that is up there in terms of the three tight end usage. Yeah, I I agree with everything up to
40:47the point of I I don't believe that they're taking Jameson Williams off the field for a third tight end very often,
40:53at least. Like, this team is obsessed with Jameson Williams. I every summer I I have to like pull the Jameson Williams
40:59quotes from a year ago of just the unhinged things that Dan Campbell uh or
41:05anyone on the staff says about him every single summer. Uh it's how they motivate him or whatever, I guess. But yeah, I
41:10don't think they're taking him off the field that often for a tight end. But what I do think is going to happen uh is
41:16that there's kind of been like some weird quote warfare around this. like it. Anytime I bring up multi-tight end
41:22sets for the Lions, people say, "Oh, Dan Campbell said that that was wasn't going to be a thing and that it was only because of Petting's personnel, that's
41:29like not really what he said." Like if if you kind of and I did this, I just went back and listened to every
41:35interview that like a Lions offensive coach gave basically uh since combine.
41:41Uh and what what I really got was that they they want to be versatile from week
41:47to week. They think they have the personnel to go to heavy sets in some
41:52weeks depending on matchup and to be an 11 in other weeks depending on matchup. And I and I think that I think that I
41:58would agree with that assessment. They can kind of go wherever they want. And I would also point out that that's kind of
42:04what the Rams did last year too. Like they it was not every single week that they were just okay, we're going to be
42:1020% 13 personnel. There were weeks where they were close to 50% and there were weeks where they were close to 0%
42:16depending how healthy Adams was, what they thought of the matchup. Like they didn't do it as much uh against the
42:22Seahawks. Like there there's all these factors from week to week, but especially from like a baseball lens,
42:28that's amazing. I would if you told me right now like there are going to be five weeks uh scattered throughout the
42:34season where Sam Laaporta is actually going to have a 95% route participation rate because they're going to be in
42:41heavy sets. Uh and Leaporta has been in absurdly efficient from multi-tight end
42:47sets over his career. Uh.7 fantasy points per out run uh ranks behind only
42:53Puka Nakua, JSN, Dvonte Adams, and Stefon Diggs among wide receivers over the past two years. then that that's
42:59amazing. Like that there's just amazing spike week potential for Sam Laaporta based on this. Uh and as as I was saying
43:06earlier, I think if they go to a little more 12, just kind of keep him on the field more, bump him from like 75% of
43:12the routes to 80% of the routes, that like makes a big difference. And we've seen that in Leaporta's career splits,
43:19too. He's at nearly 16 fantasy points per game in his games above a 75% route
43:25share. just he's had a lot of games where he's either had to rotate off a little too much or has been injured and
43:31limited. Like if he's playing more, that's amazing. Very similarly as to what we talked about with Christian
43:37Watson. This is anecdotal, but maybe a topic for uh an upcoming article for for you,
43:42Ryan, because I I I won't dive into it as much, but it has always felt like it's either a Jameson Williams week or a
43:48Sam Laora week. And while they're different body types, uh, they kind of can occupy the same exact area on the
43:54field where Ben Johnson, you know, would get them in these crossing routes and drag routes kind of against the grain of
44:00of everything else. And so, one of those guys was getting those opportunities each week and it wasn't both of them.
44:05So, uh, I don't know how I'm drafting tight ends this year. You know, we can talk about the Bowowers and maybe lesser
44:11for me McBride, but definitely the Lovelands and and especially the Tyler Warren. And then I really didn't want to
44:17draft anyone in that middle area. I am talking myself more and more into Sam Laaporta uh tight end seven overall
44:25right now in the ninth round. Now I do want to say that we as a football
44:30collective kind of obsess over certain injuries like Malik Neighbors and Bucky Irving and some of these other types and
44:36kind of forget about other ones. Sam Laort is coming off of a significant injury, a back injury that as soon as he
44:42sustained it last year was immediately placed on injury reserve and they just did not play him anymore. Um, just
44:49yesterday he returned to just jogging uh at OTAAS and hopefully in training camp
44:54we get more and more positive reports and if we do I would expect Sam Laorta's ADP to climb. I just don't want to say
45:00that, oh, this is just a player that, you know, has all these underlying metrics that we absolutely love and, you
45:05know, was the best tight end during his rookie season and not talk about this injury that he has dealt with for many,
45:10many months. But, uh, at least he seems to be trending on the right path. Yeah, agreed 100%. You got you do.
45:16Thanks for mentioning that. Yeah, it it is one of those ones that you kind of forget about that there's like a a a
45:22scary quote about once in a while, but that never kind of catches on. It's Yeah, I I've for a while I've wanted to
45:27write a whole piece about just like the fantasy football attention economy and the things that like capture our
45:32imaginations uh just based on like what the algorithm is showing to all of us all the time and
45:39how that like change it does change how we draft players and how we think and talk about totally. Uh I I don't know what my
45:45through line would be there but that yeah it's a huge thing that you just hit on. Well Ryan, if you write it I'll probably
45:50ask you to have you on the show. Uh that's what you do like when you write these big bangers uh then you come on an
45:57episode uh if you have time. So I I always appreciate it Ryan. Um again I
46:02continue to say this every time you come on. Not only do you get better on these like I love having you on these episodes
46:07uh you are one of the rising stars I think in the fantasy business that uh I think it's difficult to come up with new
46:14angles when we talk and especially write about fantasy football but you find it and how to do it every single time. So,
46:20uh, before you got out of here, anything you want to pitch to the people? Anything you want to say that what you're up to? Yeah. Uh, you can follow along with all
46:26of my work. Uh, all my written work is on fantasypoints.com. You can find me on x ryanj_he. I always
46:35tweet out when I have new work. Uh, and you can find us on YouTube as well. Uh, fantasy points YouTube. We have just
46:42launched uh, separate dynasty and baseball channels. I've been doing some drafts with Jacob Sanderson over there.
46:49So, that's really cool. Make sure you guys go check those out. The channel loves Jacob. Uh, and so you guys should go and check out every
46:55single show that these two guys do together. All right. Thanks so much everyone for watching. We'll be back
47:01next week with a secondyear player week, second year breakout. So, we're going to go through quarterbacks and wide receivers and running backs and tight
47:07ends. So, be on the lookout for that. Hit subscribe. We'll talk to you'all next time. See?
