0:00Sometimes the best pick is going to be the riskiest. However, if you stack too many risky picks up in the same draft,
0:07what's going to happen is your floor is going to be so low that you could end up being Danny Lab from the Flock League
0:13last year and just lose the league straight up. I don't know what else to say. Like we are nearing on seven
0:18straight losses. So, I'm going to go through and I'm going to talk about the riskiest pick in every round of your
0:23fantasy drafts and whether you should target them or avoid them starting in round one with Christian McCaffrey. Now, it's very easy to understand how
0:33Christian McCaffrey is a risky pick in fantasy. The first thing is we already have a long lengthy history of injuries for the McCaffrey profile. We can go
0:43through and we can look at the 2024 season where the man dealt with Achilles tendinitis and missed the entire year.
0:49We can go back to 2021 where he played only seven games for the Carolina Panthers and 2020 where he played only
0:56three games in Carolina. If we go back and look at what McCaffrey's coming off of this past season. Christian McCaffrey actually saw a total of 311 carries, 102
1:07receptions, so over 400 touches ignoring the NFL playoffs. We have seen historically a higher injury rate for players coming off massive workloads
1:18like this. We've seen an extensive list of injuries throughout McCaffrey's career. Plus, we know that as these running backs get older, as they push
1:27into their age 30, age 31 seasons, they're also at risk even more for an injury. So, I hate and I repeat, I hate
1:36to be somebody coming out and trying to predict an injury in fantasy football because it never works out. They're so damn random and most of the time you're
1:44just going to look like a fool. But, with everything that is stacking against them, with the historical trend of players coming off 400 touch seasons,
1:52with the injury history he has himself, with the the data of running backs in their age 30 or beyond year. And lastly,
1:59the Substation just shredding through Niners camp at the moment. I do think we at least need to acknowledge the risk with McCaffrey. Now, of course, the
2:08ceiling is absolutely monstrous. So, in specific league settings where you start only two wide receivers and one flex, where the wide receiver depth doesn't
2:17matter that much, I am completely fine with you taking Christian McCaffrey with the sixth pick overall in your fantasy draft. However, if wide receiver depth
2:26does matter in your league, whether you have to start three wide receivers and a flex, or maybe you start two wide
2:31receivers and two flex spots, that's when I'll be going with the higher floor round one pick, and I'll be targeting Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first round.
2:40Now, of course, there's always a price, and even in that kind of format like the Flock League, if I have the 1.08 or the
2:471.09, and McCaffrey makes it to me, I'm going to take him. I'm going to roll the dice because we saw last season him
2:54score over 400 points in fantasy football, and that would be something that's difficult to overlook. Now, moving over to round two of fantasy
3:02drafts, we are going to be bringing up Rashee Rice. Now, with Rashee Rice, obviously, the developments that we've had as of late in Kansas City, they're
3:10pretty positive, right? This is a wide receiver that's out there already running routes, catching balls from Patrick Mahomes. But, if we look at the
3:17Rashee Rice off season and the Rashee Rice profile so far through his NFL career, Rice in back-to-back seasons has only played a total of 12 games. And
3:25that was due to two separate things.
3:27One, a devastating injury that ended his 2024 season early. And two, in 2025, a suspension that he faced for off-the-field stuff. Now, what we saw
3:37this off season was Rashee Rice go out there and act a fool and land himself in jail. Rashee Rice had to spend a month
3:47in county jail this off season. And right before he went to jail, he actually had a clean-up procedure on his knee. And right now, we are getting
3:55viral clips out of training camp where Rashee Rice looks like he's running at 75% speed. So, with Rice's extensive track record of not being a model
4:06citizen, not behaving himself, and the suspension risk, in my opinion, being higher than any other player in the first two rounds, with the fact that he
4:15does have a significant knee injury in his past, and he's coming off knee surgery this off-season, and his quarterback with Patrick Mahomes is also
4:24coming off his own knee surgery, I think you have injury risk and suspension risk with Rice where yes, he can smash, he
4:31can very easily be a top-five wide receiver that you drafted in the second round, or also he could do something off
4:37the field and get himself kicked out of the NFL. Now, moving over to round three, the risk become a little bit
4:42different with Kyren Williams. And if we are trying to figure out where we'd be drafting Kyren in the third round, if
4:48you're in a two-wide receiver one-flex format again, where wide receiver depth doesn't matter much, I would love Kyren Williams in that format. If you're
4:56playing in a non-PPR format and you can get Kyren Williams in the third round, he is an absolute smash. Now, I'll
5:02remind you, if you don't know how to make the adjustments to your exact league settings, don't worry, I have you covered. We have over 70 custom draft
5:10sheets available to you on flockfantasy.com that fit the exact platform that you're drafting on, and at the same time, your exact league
5:17settings, plus real-time draft assistance that connect to your ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo drafts. And that's all included with the flockfantasy.com season pass. That season pass is still
5:27available for only $34 right now. And if you use code flock, you're going to get free questions that you can ask me in
5:33the live streams that I'm streaming every single night. You can find that link in the description as well as the comment section. But looking at Kyren
5:40Williams, I mean, right now, he is a third-round pick on literally every single platform. And the risk that you have here with Kyren is the usage
5:49continuing to trend in the wrong direction. Kyren Williams played 88% of the snaps in 2024. He played 70% of the snaps in 2025. And the reports that we
5:59have coming out of Los Angeles at the moment will be that Blake Corum is going to expand his role yet again this year.
6:05Now, I understand that the downside risk is there with Kyren, that if Blake Corum does specifically take over the goal-line role and the rushing
6:14touchdowns and receiving touchdowns plummet for Kyren Williams, all of a sudden he may go from being a low-end RB1 in fantasy down to a low-end RB2.
6:25Again, if Blake Corum truly does expand his role in that fashion. This is one of those instances though where I am
6:31willing to roll the dice with Kyren Williams because the upside case is this is all just coach speak and Kyren Williams is the starting running back
6:39that's had a history of bell-cow usage on the best team in the best offense in the NFL. The riskiest pick that we have
6:46in round four is actually going to be Bucky Irving. And first, I need to discuss the upside that we have with
6:52Bucky, right? Because obviously, this is a running back that was going in the second round of fantasy drafts last year. He's still incredibly young and
7:00you get a pretty good discount on him now going in round four. And the reason why he is so enticing is we saw a
7:07massive breakout at the end of his rookie season. And if we go through and actually look at what we had from weeks
7:14six through 18 in 2024. And then we also include before he got injured in 2025, which would be weeks one through four.
7:23We are looking at about a full season in length, right? Where he averaged 17.2 points per game and he was the running
7:31back 10. Now, the risk that we have with Bucky Irving is obviously he dealt with the multitude of injuries last season
7:39that actually bled into the beginning of this off-season. Now, right now at camp, he's out there, he's running, he's looking good. At this point, almost
7:47looks like it's going to be behind him, the shoulder surgery that he had, the foot injury that he had. But, I do want
7:52to acknowledge the higher re-injury risk that Bucky will have in comparison to some other players in this range.
7:58Because if we look at Bucky Irving coming out of school, this man weighed 192 lb. If we cross-reference this with a couple other round four running backs,
8:08just to give you a sense of what does a round four running back typically look like with their size? Travis Etienne was
8:15215 lb coming out of school. Cam Akers, another running back going in round four, was 219.
8:22Javonte Williams, another running back you can possibly get in the fourth round, is 212. So, you'll see the average running back in the league,
8:31especially at this profile that will see work on all three downs, weighs about 25 lb more than Bucky Irving does. So, the
8:38slight frame, the injury history, I do think that means that we have to be concerned where if he were to see
8:44volume, that he possibly does miss time.
8:47But, also on top of this, we need to add a couple important references to contracts. Cuz if we go over and we look
8:53at what Rashad White got paid to go over to the Washington Commanders this year, Rashad White got paid $1.7 million guaranteed, which of course is
9:02absolutely great money. I mean, hell, if you paid me that for the Flock League this year, I'd be praising God, hallelujah. But, for NFL standards, that
9:10is nothing. Where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided, "You know what?
9:15Let's let Rashad White walk, and let's go all in on signing other running backs." They paid $9.8 million guaranteed for Bucky Irving. We actually
9:27have a deal up to $14 million there. And then if we go over and look at Sean Tucker, they didn't just stop at
9:34bringing in Bucky. They brought in Sean Tucker, who at this point, um, is getting paid much more than what we had
9:39with Rashad White. You actually have 3.5 million for Sean Tucker himself. So, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they invest significantly into the running back
9:49position this offseason. Bucky Irving looks like he is a good RB explosive back that you would have hoped has a pretty large receiving role. But, now
9:58that Gainwell's in town, I'm worried that Gainwell's going to eat into the receiving and they're going to limit the amount of touches that Bucky Irving sees
10:05due to his frame and the potential risk for injury. So, obviously a ton of upside for Bucky Irving in round four,
10:10but also a ton of risk. Now, our round five pick, I am actually drafting myself. A Treylon Henderson has the floor of being a straight-up backup
10:19running back for the New England Patriots. Rhamondre Stevenson was very clearly the starting running back during the most important games for New England
10:27in that playoff stretch as well as during the Super Bowl. And on top of this, another downside case that you have with Treylon Henderson is the New
10:35England Patriots currently project to be a significantly worse offense this year in total points scored in comparison to where they were at last season. That's
10:43due to a combination of two things. One, regression, and two, just the overall schedule being much tougher in New England than it was last year. But, I am
10:51still buying into Treylon Henderson even though I understand that there is a damn good chance that I am drafting just a
10:58straight-up backup running back in the fifth round of drafts this year because while the floor is incredibly low, I do believe Henderson still has the ceiling
11:06to be a running back one in fantasy based on his collegiate profile coming out of Ohio State. And on top of that,
11:12we saw some really big-time spikes for him during his rookie year where in week 10, he had 28 fantasy points off of only
11:2014 carries. He went for over 140 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns.
11:24In week 11, he had 32 fantasy points where he had, I mean, 19 carries, two rushing touchdowns, five receptions, as well as a receiving touchdown on top of
11:34that. In week 15 against Buffalo, he had 148 rushing yards off of 14 carries, multiple rushing touchdowns. So, I believe he's an incredible talent. I
11:43think this offense does still have upside even if they're supposed to be worse. So, I am taking the risk in drafting him in round five, but I
11:50understand it's a massive risk. He could be the backup. Now, Marvin Harrison in the sixth round, in my opinion, is a
11:56very clear risk as well. Couple different reasons. One, the Arizona Cardinals offense is supposed to be much worse this year than it's been over the
12:03past two seasons. Two, you now have a real running back room with accommodation of Jeremiah Love and Tyler Allgeier, where Arizona wasn't able to
12:12run the ball last season. So, obviously, they skewed extremely pass-happy, but now they're going to be able to run the ball much more than they did previously.
12:20And three, if Marvin Harrison remains the same player that he's been in fantasy football over the past two years, he's bad. All right? He's a horrible
12:30pick in the sixth round. He was the wide receiver 42 in points per game in his rookie season. He was the wide receiver
12:3541 in points per game this last year.
12:39And if we look at his current cost, he's a sixth-round pick in ESPN drafts. He's a sixth-round pick according to the
12:44flockfantasy.com expert average.
12:47Sixth-round pick in Best Ball, sixth-round pick on CBS, sixth-round pick on FFPC. I mean, in Sleeper drafts, he's falling to the seventh, which feels
12:54a lot better from a risk-adjusted perspective. Now, moving over to Harold Fannin in round seven, it's a little bit of a different risk that you have in
13:03drafting Harold Fannin. Cuz obviously, from a talent perspective, this dude looks incredible. In college, the man was an absolute beast when it came to
13:11his production. He had 119 receiving yards per game. 14% of his routes led to being a first down according to the
13:19Fantasy Stock Exchange prospect model on flockfantasy.com. He was like one of the most prolific receiving tight ends that's come into the league in quite
13:27some time. And then at 21 years old in his rookie season, he breaks out in the second half of the year a game with 25
13:33fantasy points in week 14. He averages six and a half targets per game, 4.5 receptions per game, and now you have no
13:40David Njoku. Just the risk that I'm going to see with drafting almost any of these tight ends here in this range is
13:48can they really put a beat down on the tight ends that are going to be coming off the waiver wire or at the very of
13:55your drafts? Like what is the realistic difference in points per game between Harold Fannin that you would have to draft at the 6-7 turn currently or maybe
14:03a different tight end that you're going to get at the very end of your draft such as Juwan Johnson, such as Brevin
14:09Strange, Hunter Henry cuz obviously there's a massive difference in cost.
14:14Plus, the Cleveland Browns currently project to be the worst offense in the league. Now going over to round eight, we are going to throw Chris Godwin in
14:20the risky camp. With Godwin, we haven't seen the production um in quite some time in terms of him being a difference-making player in fantasy.
14:28Last time that we actually were able to put him in a starting lineup was week seven of the 2024 NFL season. Obviously
14:35at that point, he suffers a devastating injury. He comes back this past year, still doesn't really do anything. He's still rehabbing from this injury. Wide
14:43receiver 51 in points per game. The risk that I see here with Godwin is now he is a 30-year-old wide receiver that we
14:50haven't seen get to the same level that he was pre-injury. You now have a Bucca as the top wide receiver in this offense
14:57and on top of this, they backfill the wide receiver depth by having Jalen McMillan come back from injury as well as drafting Ted Hurst this year. So I am
15:06worried about Godwin just being that 30-year-old wide receiver with additional target competition even with the departure of Mike Evans because we
15:14haven't seen the production in quite some time coming off an injury. You may be better off in my opinion going through and drafting the ascending wide
15:21receiver in this range in Quentin Johnston. That would be my preferred pick. Now, round nine is a risky pick because he could literally be a zero,
15:29but at the same time, he could be the starting running back in his backfield with Jonathan Brooks. I know Jonathan Brooks has been like the main talk of
15:37camp at the moment for the Carolina Panthers. But, if we go through and look at the game log that we have for
15:44Jonathan Brooks going back over the past few years in fantasy football and collegiate football, what we will see is Jonathan Brooks has not had a game in
15:54which he's been a meaningful participator in any football activities since November 2023. Keep in mind,
16:04he's not going to play until September 2026. So, that's about 3 years with no football. Yes, maybe he's getting in rehab. Yes, maybe he's out there with
16:15some practices and just consistently ramping up just to tear the ACL again.
16:20And he was a phenomenal player back at Texas. Hookem Horns, you know I am a Texas alum. Now, with this, I do want to
16:26acknowledge that he has the upside to be an incredibly talented player. He's still younger than a lot of running backs that were in last year's rookie
16:32class like Jacory Croskey-Merritt, such as Woody Marks. So, he's still very young and he could be the straight-up starter in his backfield. Right now, his
16:41expert average ranking on flockfantasy.com is currently sitting at 88. And in the time of this recording, he's at 143 on Sleeper, 107 at ESPN, 99
16:51on Yahoo, 93 on Underdog, 107 on CBS.
16:54So, we have him as a massive value, but my concern is what happens when he becomes a round seven, a round eight
17:01pick in your fantasy draft and people are projecting him to be the straight-up starter. Now, our round 10 guy is going
17:07to be Xavier Worthy. With Xavier Worthy, we've already seen him get injured at camp. Sounds like he is going to be
17:13fine, but obviously, this has been something that's plagued him throughout his entire NFL career. Xavier Worthy coming out of the University of Texas
17:20was a player that I liked a ton because he was hyper-productive in his true freshman season. But, at the end of the
17:26day, he's a wide receiver that weighs 165 lb that hasn't shown the ability to be able to stay healthy at the NFL
17:33level, and he's coming off a year in which he was the wide receiver 60 in points per game, and has yet to crack
17:391.5 yd per reception. Not to mention that you do have the overhang with the Patrick Mahomes injury himself, and this team may skew a little bit more
17:46run-heavy than usual, which is why we also had Rashee Rice on this list or a couple of reasons why we had Rice. But,
17:52again, I want to reiterate, yes, these players are risky, but at the right cost, they 100% can be bought into because I think the ceiling is there.
18:01For me personally, I really like drafting Kyren at the end of the third, especially if he dips to the beginning of the fourth. I've been mixing in
18:07TreVeyon Henderson in the fifth, even if there's a good shot he's a backup. And then Jonathan Brooks, if you could get
18:13him in the double-digit rounds, is a smash pick. But, once all of a sudden he starts going around seven or eight, I
18:18would be concerned. But, again, if you want help with your fantasy drafts this year or managing your team during the season, the flockfantasy.com season pass
18:26is still only $34. You're going to get a custom draft sheet to your exact league settings, real-time draft assistance for your sleeper ESPN Yahoo leagues, trade
18:36calculator, weekly rest of season rankings available throughout the entire year, not only by myself, but pretty much all your favorite creators you
18:43watch on YouTube. Links to the description, it's in the comment section. Use code flock, that way you get free questions you can ask me during
18:50the streams this year. But, much love, I appreciate you, and hope I get to see you in the live stream later tonight.
