VideoFrom Flock Fantasy
Top 32 NFL Offenses & Tiers
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
26 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 5, 2026
Published
Wed, August 5, 2026
43
Player insights
43
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron JonesAmari CooperAmon-Ra St. BrownCeeDee LambChase BrownChristian WatsonColston LovelandDaniel JonesDavante AdamsDe'Von AchaneDeebo SamuelDerrick HenryDrake LondonGeorge Pickens
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
Amari Cooper
PositiveValue14:13
The source prefers drafting Amari Cooper over Saquon Barkley, citing the Chargers' expected offensive leap due to coaching changes and an improved offensive line.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveValue5:13
Amon-Ra St. Brown is considered one of the safest picks in fantasy football drafts. In full PPR formats with multiple flex spots, he is preferred over Jonathan Taylor.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
Chase Brown
Christian Watson
NegativeValue8:17
Christian Watson is a seventh-round pick on ESPN and a fifth-round pick on Yahoo; the source recommends drafting him on ESPN but avoiding him on Yahoo based on their early sixth-round ranking.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout17:24
Colston Loveland is identified as a beneficiary of open targets in the Bears offense and is currently being drafted as a fourth-round pick.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeInjury17:10
The source notes that the Colts' offensive success hinges on Daniel Jones, who is currently recovering from a torn Achilles, which contributes to a lower overall offensive projection for the team.
Insight pageDavante Adams
NegativeValue1:43
Davante Adams is currently being drafted as the WR24, typically coming off the board at the end of the fourth round or the beginning of the fifth round depending on the platform (ESPN vs. CBS).
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveValue23:28
The source notes that Devon Achane has shifted from an early first-round pick to a mid-second-round pick, and the source has been actively drafting him at that reduced cost.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
NegativeValue7:13
The source is not excited to draft Deebo Samuel in regular redraft leagues, though acknowledges potential value in best ball formats if he outperforms his WR6 ADP.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveValue5:00
Derrick Henry's value is format-dependent: he is a mid-to-late second-round pick in PPR leagues, but warrants early first-round consideration in non-PPR formats.
Insight pageDrake London
NegativeValue22:18
The source is not worried about drafting Drake London at the end of the second round, noting that he can replicate his previous production because he is the primary target in the Falcons' offense.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
NegativeValue6:12
George Pickens is currently being drafted at the 2-3 turn in fantasy drafts.
Insight pageJadarian Price
PositiveValue15:39
Jadarian Price is considered an incredibly cheap running back option; he is currently being drafted as RB26 in Sleeper drafts (after the sixth round), but the source values him as a fifth-round pick.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveValue4:56
Jahmyr Gibbs is ranked as the 1.01 in fantasy drafts, with the Lions' elite offensive projection serving as the tiebreaker over Bijan Robinson.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveProjection13:28
Despite acknowledging negative sentiment from the comment section, the source maintains that Jalen Hurts is a good fantasy quarterback, noting that the Eagles' offensive projection has increased from 22.3 points per game last year to 23.8 this year.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveValue4:08
Given the Bills' projected offensive output, James Cook is a viable selection as early as the first round.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveUsage9:23
The source advocates for drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round, highlighting his massive 36% target share from last season and the lack of target competition in the Seattle offense.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveProjection16:46
The source has been drafting a significant amount of Jayden Daniels, valuing his elite rushing upside as a quarterback for the Commanders, noting he is expected to run the ball a ton.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeValue24:25
The source is comfortable taking Jeremiah Love in the third round, comparing his situation to Ashen Genty's previous season, and arguing that the risk of being in a poor offense is already accounted for in his draft cost.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeValue17:38
The source is not in love with drafting Jonathan Taylor in the first round, citing a weaker offensive line and sportsbooks projecting the Colts to be a much worse offense this year compared to last season.
Insight pageJordan Mason
Josh Allen
PositiveValue3:26
Josh Allen is the preferred QB1 due to his consistent top-three fantasy finish every season since 2020 and his durability, having played at least 16 games annually since 2019; he is worth drafting ahead of other quarterbacks despite his third-round ADP. For reference, he has never averaged 25 points per game in his NFL career.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveValue8:45
Josh Jacobs is considered a quality third-round pick, noting that while off-field concerns exist, he remains a strong value if he avoids suspension.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveValue21:34
The source is comfortable with Justin Jefferson's current ADP as a late round-one pick, noting that he is the only expensive player in the Vikings' offense.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeBust13:00
The source warns against drafting Kenneth Walker at his current ADP, citing concerns that the Chiefs' offense may not be as productive as expected and that Walker's previous efficiency (RB29 in PPG) does not justify his high draft cost. The team's projected scoring is 24.1 PPG, lower than the Seahawks' 28.5 PPG last year.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
NegativeValue14:34
Ladd McConkey is identified as a fourth-round draft target for those looking to capitalize on the Chargers' improved offensive environment.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveValue4:07
Lamar Jackson is a strong value pick in the fifth round; the source attributes his 2024 struggles to injury rather than talent, noting he maintained a 25 points-per-game average. He is considered a superior value compared to Josh Allen, who has never reached that 25 PPG threshold.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveValue6:53
Following the Ricky Pearsall injury news, the source bumped Mike Evans up from an early fifth-round pick to a late fourth-round pick, calling him a solid target.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeValue0:54
Puka Nacua is widely recognized as a top-tier asset, currently holding an average draft position of 3.8 across major platforms like Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, Underdog, CBS, and FFPC.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveSleeper14:34
Quentin Johnston is a frequent draft target for the source, particularly in sleeper or ESPN formats where he is available after pick 100.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeInjury19:11
The source expresses concern regarding Rashee Rice, citing reports of him looking slow and sluggish following knee surgery, while also noting his off-field issues; he is currently a second or third-round pick.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveBreakout17:24
Rome Odunze is expected to see increased target volume in the Bears offense, with an ADP currently at the end of the fifth or beginning of the sixth round.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeRole13:55
The source expects Saquon Barkley to benefit from a more creative offensive scheme under a new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, though they are not drafting him often because the Chargers project to score similarly while offering more significant coaching and line improvements.
Insight pageT.J. Hockenson
Tee Higgins
NegativeValue5:29
Tee Higgins is expected to be drafted in either the third or fourth round.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveValue20:21
The source identifies Travis Kelce as a late-round value, noting he is currently being drafted after pick 100.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
NegativeValue20:07
The source is avoiding Trevor Lawrence in drafts, citing concerns that the Jaguars' offense will regress from last year and operate as a wide receiver by committee.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeValue24:09
Despite concerns that the Cardinals' offense will be poor, the source continues to draft Trey McBride in the third round, noting that his 18.5 fantasy points per game last year makes him a high-value asset whose downside is already priced in.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveSleeper8:27
Tucker Kraft is identified as an incredibly cheap sleeper with an ADP around pick 100 on ESPN, and the source expects him to crush expectations.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
PositiveValue20:21
The source identifies Xavier Worthy as a late-round value, noting he is currently being drafted after pick 100.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Not only are we going to be looking at how these offenses project to score in 2026, but I also want to look back at
0:06what they did in 2025 so we can identify the offenses that are about to take a massive step forward and the offenses
0:12that did get worse year-over-year.
0:14Starting off with the only S tier offense that we have in the NFL this season. It is going to be the Los
0:20Angeles Rams. Right now, sports books have the Rams projected out to score 26.6 points per game. You reference this to what the Rams did last year. The Rams
0:30were at 30 and a half points per game last season. So obviously it's tough to ever assume that an offense is going to
0:35be that good. But nonetheless, they were the best offense in the league last year. They project to be the best offense in the league this year by a
0:42decent little margin. I can't tell you like, oh yeah, this means you should go through and you should target Rams aggressively in your drafts because
0:50obviously everybody already knows this with the Rams. It's not a secret.
0:54Pukanukua is currently sitting with an average pick of 3.8 in fantasy drafts across Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, Underdog,
1:03CBS, and FFPC ADP. We go and look at Dvonte Adams. Dvonte Adams currently going as the wide receiver 24. He's a
1:10fourth round pick in ESPN. He's a fifth round pick in CBS, but nonetheless, he's going to go at the end of the fourth,
1:16beginning of the fifth of your fantasy draft. Kairen Williams is pencled in as a third round selection. So, this offense is incredible. It has a player
1:25getting selected in round one and round three and round four of fantasy draft.
1:29So, people already know it, but yeah, I mean, wheels up for the Rams as always.
1:34Now, going down to our next year, this is where things begin to get a little close. So, the Rams project to score
1:4026.6 points per game. Every offense we're about to talk about is anywhere from 26.1 to 25.7.
1:48Starting off with the Buffalo Bills.
1:50Obviously, the Bills have been an elite offense for years now. Maybe you could be concerned with the change with the coaching staff, but it's the same guy
1:58that was the offensive coordinator taking over as the head coach. So, the offense should be about the same. They invest into the wide receiver room
2:06finally by going out there and trading for DJ Moore. And honestly, this is the reason why I am a-okay drafting Josh
2:13Allen way ahead of any other quarterback in fantasy football. Like currently he is a third round pick in most reddraft leagues. I know some people watching
2:22this their league mates are dumb enough to take a quarterback in round one, but nonetheless I mean it's well warranted for Allen to beat the QB1 in fantasy.
2:30He's been a top three quarterback in fantasy points per game. Every single season since 2020 at six straight years and also every single year since 2019,
2:40he's played at least 16 games in the season. So Josh Allen the safest pick with the most upside at quarterback.
2:48Also with this Bills projection, it does tell me that you can go ahead and draft James Cook, of course, if you want there
2:54in round one. Going over to the Detroit Lions being an elite offense. This is really the only thing that can be a
3:01tiebreaker for me when it comes to Gibbs versus Bejon Robinson. We'll talk about the Atlanta Falcons projection later on, but the Lions supposed to be one of the
3:10best offenses in the league means that Gibbs is the 101 for me. It also means that Aman Rossi Brown is one of the
3:15safest picks and then also Jameson Williams to the four or five turn.
3:19Hopefully you can actually get him in the late fit depending on your league is just a fine selection. Cincinnati Bengals here at four. I don't want to
3:25spend a lot of time here either because Jamar Chase is a round one pick. Chase Brown's a round two pick and Tagan's
3:31going to go in either rounds three or four. So the Bengals already priced for perfection. They're going to be a good
3:36offense. You can draft them with aggression. The Baltimore Ravens project to be the fifth best offense. This is where things maybe get a little
3:42interesting because there is a pretty wide gap of where Lamar Jackson is being drafted versus Josh Allen. Now, in sleeper drafts, Lamar Jackson does have
3:51an ADP a pick, 37. But on almost any other platform, Lamar Jackson is a fifthround pick. Like in the flockfantasy.com average expert
4:01rankings, he's at 55. ESPN, he's at 56.
4:05Yahoo, he goes to the beginning of the fifth round. Underdog drafts, he goes in the fifth. And if you compare this to
4:10Josh Allen, it is a nice little dip that you are getting in cost. And if we go through and look at the Lamar Jackson
4:17profile, of course, Lamar was garbage.
4:20And I mean, straight garbage this past season where he was the QB 16 in points per game. He didn't look good from a
4:27real life perspective either. But based on the sportsbook projections that we have for this next season, I think we can probably safely say that the Lamar
4:37Jackson struggles were just due to his injury and the expectations are the Ravens get back to normal. I know the change with the coaching staff may have
4:45some people concerned, but Lamar averaged 25 points per game in 2024.
4:5125. That ceiling is unheard of. For reference, Josh Allen has never averaged 25 points per game in his NFL career.
5:00So, I think Lamar Jackson's a fine pick in the fifth round. And then for Derrick Henry, obviously, if you're using our
5:06draft sheets, you'll see that I have him as a mid to late second round pick in PPR leagues, but if you're playing in a
5:11nonPR format, I actually have Derrick Henry up there as an early round one pick. So, Henry specifically, make sure you are adjusting to your league
5:19settings. But of course, if you don't know exactly how you should be doing that with those rankings, we got you covered with the flockfantasy.com draft
5:26sheets. There are over 70 total draft sheets tailored to your exact league settings and the draft platform that you are on. You have realtime draft
5:34assistance with flockfantasy.com as well. And you get access to the trade calculator through the entire season, weekly rankings, and rest of season
5:42rankings throughout the entire year with the $34 season pass. Yep. Season pass is only 34 bucks. Not $34 a month, but $34
5:51for the entire season. And if you sign up with code flock, you're going to be getting to ask me free starts it and
5:56trade questions during the live streams, which I'm going to be doing every single night during the year. Now, the Dallas Cowboys will be our next offense. I
6:03don't want to spend too long here either. I mean, sports books have the Cowboys projected out score 25.7 points, but Lamb's a round one pick. George
6:12Piggins goes at the two-3 turn. Javvante Williams goes in the third. So, people already know Cowboys going to be a great
6:17offense. Hell, I may be drafting Brandon Aubrey a little early in the flock league this year. I'll throw that out there. Now, dropping down to our next
6:23tier. Let's move over to the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners cost are kind of all over the place. Ricky Pierall now out for this season. So,
6:33obviously, if you're looking at like sleeper ADP, it's going to be way out to date. And just make sure you're going
6:38into your draft with an actual good set of sheets. But, yeah, Ricky Pieraw completely undraftable at this point.
6:43And that leaves just Mike Evans, Debo Samuel, and Dean stribbling as the only wide receivers here in San Francisco. I
6:53have bumped Mike Evans up my rankings slightly since we got this news with Ricky Pierall. I previously had Mike Evans ranked as an early fifth round
7:02pick, but now I moved him up to a late fourth round pick. But if you're drafting on ESPN, he goes way after
7:08that. If you're drafting on Yahoo, he goes way after that. If you're drafting on CBS, he goes way after that. and even
7:13he goes after that on sleeper. So with Mike Evans, I think he is a solid target. I'm gonna be honest with you.
7:19Regarding Debo Samuel as well as Deshawn Stribbling, I wouldn't be that excited to draft them in my regular reddraft league. However, in your best formats,
7:28if you take him as a wide receiver six and he turns out to be a wide receiver three, then that could be exciting. Now,
7:34the Green Bay Packers will be our next offense. And the Packers are underpriced if we are looking at the total number of
7:40points that they're supposed to score.
7:42Cuz what has led to Green Bay never producing a top wide receiver in fantasy since Devonte Adams left? Has it been
7:49how bad the offense is? How bad the quarterback plays? No. It's been they use a wide receiver by committee and they have so many freaking names that
7:59cycle through.
8:01But now you have multiple wide receivers departing from Green Bay with Dantavian Wixs as well as Romeo Dobs and the Packers still project to be a top 10
8:12offense in the league. So if you go through and you look at the Packers price at the moment, Christian Watson is
8:17a seventh round pick in ESPN drafts.
8:19He's a fifth round pick in Yahoo drafts.
8:21On flockfantasy.com, we have them ranked as an early sixth. So if you're using the draft sheets, you'll see probably want to take them on ESPN. Probably want
8:27to avoid him in Yahoo. Um, but even moving beyond Christian Watson, like Tucker Craft is incredibly cheap. Tucker Craft, at the time of this recording,
8:37has an 80p in ESPN drafts, like pick 100. This dude is going to absolutely crush. Um, if we're going through and
8:45looking at Josh Jacobs, obviously we have off the- field stuff we need to be concerned with, but Jacobs, I think, is
8:50a really quality pick in the third round, assuming that he doesn't get suspended. So, the Green Bay Packers, honestly, based on sportsbook
8:58projections, they do seem to be underpriced. Now, going over to the Seattle Seahawks, this offense is supposed to be much worse
9:06year-over-year. Like, the Seahawks averaged 28.4 points per game last season. They currently project to score 24.8 this year. Now, with that being
9:16said, they still project to be a top 10 offense. And if we look at where their players are getting drafted, extremely
9:23low. Like obviously JSN's a round one pick as I think he should be. Seahawks still project to be a top 10 offense
9:29even with the change with the offensive coordinator. They will regress a ton, but JSN last year from a market share perspective had 36% of the Seattle
9:39Seahawks targets. So this dude is an absolute monster. If we go over and look at Jadarian Price, Jadarian Price is currently being drafted as the running
9:47back 26. in sleeper drafts. This dude goes after the sixth round. Now in ESPN, Yahoo, there he goes in the middle of
9:56the sixth, which I think is appropriately priced, but we actually have him as a fifthround pick on flockfantasy.com.
10:02But Jadarian Price incredibly cheap.
10:05Maybe you're worried about Zack Sharpet coming in later, but Zack Charbanet, I mean, you can get him pretty damn cheap as well, especially if you can just go
10:11ahead and throw him on your IR spot. So, because there's no target competition at all for JSN, and while this offense
10:17should be worse, I'm still a-ok okay going through and targeting JSN in round one. And then Chicago is going to be our
10:24last offense in this tier. The Bears project to score 24.6 points per game this season, which is slightly less than where they were at last year and 25.9.
10:33But keep in mind, you no longer have to deal with DJ Moore for the pass catchers in this offense. And at the same time,
10:39Olzakia shouldn't be seeing the same amount of work that he had last year, right? All of a sudden, a haunt of
10:44targets are open for Luther Burton, for Coulson Lovelin, for Roma Dunay. And it's not like the offense is supposed to fall off either. Now, fantasy drafters,
10:53they definitely know this. Luther Burton is like a late fourth round pick on average, maybe slides to the fifth round if you're an ESPN. Roma Dunce is going
11:02at the end of the fifth, the beginning of the sixth, depending on your draft platform. Coulson Loveland is currently a fourthround pick pretty much across
11:11the board as well. So people note the Bears are supposed to be really good.
11:14You're not going to get some secret information in this video regarding the Bears offense. Now moving down to our next offense, we are going to have the
11:23Kansas City Chiefs. So obviously you have a couple big concerns with Kansas City this year and the majority of them hinge around Patrick Mahomes and his own
11:32recovery. with Mahomes. The ACL tear happened at the very end of the season.
11:37He did get surgery immediately. He is pretty much a lock to play week one, but we've already had comments coming out of
11:43KC regarding his mobility and the fact that he's maybe not going to run the ball as much as he did. But this is
11:51going to obviously impact all the other players in this offense. Rasheed Rice, we had a video coming out of camp of him
11:57looking incredibly slow, incredibly sluggish after his own knee surgery. And obviously, keep in mind, this dude went to jail this off seasonason as well. But
12:06Rice is currently a second round pick in ESPN in sleeper drafts. He goes in the third round in Yahoo drafts. I would be
12:13looking at him for teams where I start with Gibbs or Bejian Robinson in the second or the third round. Um, outside
12:20of that, everybody's pretty damn cheap.
12:21Travis Kelce goes after pick 100. Xavier Worthy goes after pick 100 as well. Um, and Kenneth Walker is really the expensive guy. And with Walker, I
12:31personally have been using this data to avoid him in a lot of those baseball drafts that I was doing. But if I look
12:38at ESPN, if I look at CBS and Sleeper, there he goes at the end of the second round, which I do think is a lot more
12:46reasonable. Of course, people are so excited about Kenneth Walker just finally seeing the Kansas City Chiefs have a dynamic and explosive running
12:53back that can break off big plays. But at the same time, Kenneth Walker last season was the running back 29 in points
13:01per game. And last year, the Seattle Seahawks, the offense he was in, averaged 28 and a half points per game.
13:08And the offense he's supposed to be in this year with the Kansas City Chiefs currently at 24.1. So, um I am a little
13:15afraid based on this data that people are assuming that Walker is going to absolutely crush and I think the Chiefs offense may not be as good as people are
13:23projecting it out to be. Now, moving over to our next one, the Philadelphia Eagles are supposed to get a bump up.
13:28Obviously, I know my comment section hates Jaylen Herz. I actually think Jayen Herz is a good fantasy quarterback, but last year the Eagles
13:35averaged 22.3 points per game. This year, their projections at 23.8.
13:41I think while yes, you lose a ton of talent with A.G. Brown going over the New England Patriots, you do just change
13:47the offensive coordinator, which hopefully should make this offense way more creative, open things up and help Saquon Barkley, Devontto Smith, Mai
13:55Lemon, um, a Dallas Goddard, etc., etc., etc. Now, I am not drafting Barkley though very often because the Chargers project to score the same amount of
14:05points as the Philadelphia Eagles right now. And obviously, the Chargers were a worse offense last year. But the reason I'm not drafting a lot of Barkley is I
14:13just prefer Amari and Hampton. Again, looking at the Chargers supposedly taking this massive step forward from an offensive environment. It makes sense
14:21with a change with a coaching staff and also the improved offensive line.
14:25Whereas in Philadelphia, you really just have the change with the coaching staff.
14:29So, um the Chargers, I think you should expect this team to be way better.
14:34Everybody knows this though. Amari Hampton is the second round pick currently. Lad McConi is a fourthrounder. Um Quinton Johnston I still find myself drafting a ton if I'm
14:44like in a sleeper or an ESPN draft because there he goes after pick 100.
14:48Now the New England Patriots are also in this same tier. The Patriots are so interesting to look at and I know that
14:57this is where most people are going to disagree and most people are going to go to the comment section and say Mason
15:02sports books they don't know what they are doing. I mean, these projections are garbage. And I'll just say they pretty much nailed to who the bottom five
15:09offenses were in the league last year and helped us avoid Ash and Genty in drafts. They pretty much nailed who the
15:14top five offenses were going to be as well. The sports books know a thing or two, but the Patriots are supposed to be
15:20the number one offense in the league with regression year-over-year. Last year, they averaged 28.8 points and this year they are at a projection of 23.8.
15:31That is a drop in five points per game.
15:34Well, maybe they became a little bit more talented adding AJ Brown. Again, the schedule is just going to be so so
15:41so much worse. So, I can't sit here and tell you that like AJ Brown's a horrible pick by any means. I think it kind of
15:50depends on the draft platform that you're on because I mean right now if we look say in ESPN drafts and Yahoo
15:56drafts, he goes to the two three turn, which is personally where I have AJ Brown ranked. Like if I went Bejon
16:01Robinson in the first and then I can get AJ Brown at the end of the second, that's chef's kiss. That's beautiful.
16:06But I've seen some people making an argument that AJ Brown should be a late first, early second because this offense is so so much better than what he dealt
16:15with in Philadelphia last year. And I'm sitting here going, well, the quarterback plays definitely better. I mean, the total amount of points scored
16:21in the offense should be about the same.
16:23Now, let's go ahead and drop us down a tier and let's look at the Washington Commanders. Shouldn't be that big of a
16:28surprise. The Commanders are supposed to be a lot better this year than they were last year. Last year, Jaden Daniels got
16:33injured. They only averaged 20.9 points per game. This year, they're up at 23.5.
16:38So, what I found myself doing is I've actually been betting on a Terry Mcccluren bounceback. I've actually been drafting a decent amount of Jaden
16:46Daniels as well if I want that elite quarterback because he is going to run the ball a ton. Now, let's move over to
16:52our other two offenses that are supposed to be much worse this year than they were last. The Indianapolis Colts averaged 27.4 points per game last
17:01season and then this year they're projecting to score 23.4. Now obviously everything hinges on Daniel Jones here.
17:10When Daniel Jones was healthy performing at the beginning of the season, the Indianapolis Colts were up there as the best offense in the NFL. Once Daniel
17:18Jones went down and they brought in 45year-old Philip Rivers, everything fell apart and you can't blame them for that. But projecting out going into the
17:26future, this Indianapolis Colts offensive line looks a little bit worse.
17:30They no longer have Michael Pitman Jr.
17:33Daniel Jones is coming off a torn Achilles. So, sports books are telling us that the Colts should be a much worse
17:38offense this year than they were last, which is why I'm not in love with taking Jonathan Taylor in round one. And if
17:44you're using our draft sheets, and you'll see that if you're playing in a full PPR format with multiple flex spots there, I'd prefer Aman Ross St. Brown
17:52over JT. But of course, if you're playing in a league with only one flex, then you probably prefer the running back. Now, the Jacksonville Jaguars are
17:58also supposed to be significantly worse than they were last year. The Jackson Jaguars in the second half of last season were one of the best offenses in
18:07the league. Travis ETN was out there just crushing. I mean, even Parker Washington was helping in the final four or five games for people to win their
18:16fantasy championships. But they project to score 23.3 points per game this season. That's down from 27.9 the year prior. That's the second to worst drop
18:27that we have in the entire NFL. I know that we went ahead and looked at the PFF offensive line grades last year and the
18:33Jags were pretty good. And when we looked at the offensive line projections for this season, the Jagso line was supposed to be worse. And this has led
18:40to me not loving the Jacksonville Jaguars cost because if we go through and we look at the amount of wide receivers that they have, they have
18:48Brian Thomas, they have Parker Washington, they have Jacobe Meyers, and I'm dumb enough to still believe that Travis Hunter can be something. So, what
18:56I'm worried about in Jacksonville is I'm worried that this offense is going to be much worse than they were a year ago.
19:01While at the same time, they're almost going to be running a wide receiver by committee, similar to what we've seen with the Green Bay Packers over the past
19:07few years. So, I'm not drafting a ton of Trevor Lawrence. I'm not drafting a ton of Jacksonville receivers outside of basketball drafts. You know, it'll make
19:14sense. Me some Travis Hunter. Now, Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be the next offense.
19:18Um, Bucks supposed to be a little bit better this year than they were last.
19:21This is despite them losing Mike Evans, but obviously Baker Mayfield dealt with injuries last season and the Bucks offensive line dealt with some pretty
19:28serious injuries as well. Um, the Texans do project to get a little bit worse year-over-year. Um, nothing really changes here in Houston. Maybe they just
19:36outperformed a bit last season. The Minnesota Vikings project to get better.
19:41Last year they averaged 20.2 points per game. This year the projections up at 22.4. It is very easy to understand why
19:48this is the case. You move from JJ McCarthy to Kyler Murray. He's going to come in and save the day. And honestly,
19:54I am completely fine with the Vikings cost. Jefferson's a late round one pick.
19:58Right now, he's pick 11 on ESPN on Yahoo. He's picked 10 in sleeper drafts.
20:03We have him a little higher with the flock fantasy.com average expert ranks about 9 and a half. But if we go through
20:10and look at the other players in this offense, Jordan Mason goes at an average pick of 120. Aaron Jones goes at an
20:16average pick of 112.
20:19And TJ Hawinson goes at an average pick of 155. Jordan Madison goes at an average pick of 100. So the only
20:26expensive guy in this entire offense is Jefferson. So, I'm fine buying the Vikings and assuming they're a little bit better year-over-year. Now, the
20:34Denver Broncos project to be the 21st ranked offense in the league this year, which I don't exactly understand because they should have the best offensive line
20:44in the league and they add Jaylen Wadd.
20:46And right now, sports books are saying that they're going to get slightly worse. If somebody in the comment section could explain this to me, I I
20:53would love to hear the explanation on why. But if you're gonna have like the best offensive line in the NFL, you add
20:59Jaylen Wadd, um, from all reports, sounds like Bo Knicks is gonna go, I don't see why the Broncos would be any
21:05worse. And the New York Giants will be about the same year-over-year according to sports books. But I will be interested to see if the Giants
21:12projection gets better as time goes on, when we get more clarity regarding the Malik Neighbors and Cam Scataboo stuff.
21:19Scataboo probably matters a little bit less for these sports book projections.
21:22I don't necessarily know if a running back like that is actually going to move the needle in terms of sports books
21:27projecting a team to win football games or not, but I do believe that Malik Neighbors one of the very few players in
21:32football that his presence on the field will actually impact how an offense performs over the course of the season.
21:40Now, dropping down to our next tier, we're going to have the New Orleans Saints. The Saints look pretty low on this list, but keep in mind they
21:46averaged only 18 points per game last season. So, their projection at 21 and a half this year has them as one of the
21:54best offenses in the league in terms of improvement year-over-year. It makes sense though with Tyler Shuck going into year two and you add in Jordan Tyson
22:02plus Travis ETN. Now, the Pittsburgh Steelers supposed to be worse year-over-year. I don't think that's too big of a surprise for me personally. I
22:10don't love the coaching staff change and Aaron Rogers is another year older. The Atlanta Falcons project to be about the same slash slightly a little better. And
22:18with this Falcons projection, it's why I'm not worried about drafting Drake London at the end of the second round because I can go through and I can look
22:25at what London did last year and go, okay, if he was that good last year, he can just replicate because he's the only
22:30guy in the offense that can catch the ball. Going over to the Carolina Panthers, the Panthers are supposed to be much better this year than they were
22:36last. Last year they average 18.3 points per game. This year they jump up to 20.7 with the projections. So, I've been fine
22:44drafting Tedo McMillan in the fourth round of fantasy drafts this year.
22:48Tennessee Titans are supposed to get a lot better as well. They averaged 16.7 points per game last season. Their projections at 20.6 this year. So, one
22:57of the best offenses in terms of improvement. The Raiders though are projected to be the number one offense in improvement year-over-year. People
23:06understand this. Bowowers is a second round pick. Gent's a first round pick.
23:10Now, they don't have anybody else in this offense, but again, we've been talking about this all off seasonason.
23:15Massive improvements in the quarterback room with the coaching staff, and they invested into the offensive line. That's the trifecta there. So, I'm completely
23:23fine with you deciding to draft Ashen Genty at the end of round one because they project score five points per game
23:28more this year than last year. The Dolphins are supposed to be slightly worse. They were bad last year, but this is why Devon Aan instead of being an
23:36early first round pick is a mid-sec round pick. I've been drafting him at that cost. The Browns are supposed to be
23:42better year-over-year. Last year they averaged 16.4 points per game. This year they're at 18.7. The Jets are about the same. Last year they were at 17.6. This
23:51year 18.5. So Gino is supposed to make them a little bit better. But the Cardinals are supposed to be a worse
23:58offense year-over-year. And this is where like things get so freaking dicey for me because like we can look at this data, right? And I can say, all right,
24:09with Trey McBride, he averaged 18 and a half fantasy points per game last year, way more than any other player in the
24:16third round. So, like, while I understand he's probably going to be worse for a multitude of reasons, including that the offense is supposed
24:23to be pretty damn bad.
24:25It's already priced in for him. Like Jeremiah Love, same thing where Jeremiah Love is supposed to be trapped in a garbage offense like Ashen Genty was
24:33last season. But Genty as a rookie was getting drafted in round one of fantasy drafts. I'm fine taking Jeremiah Love in
24:40the third round. Maybe as we go over to the wide receivers with Marv and Michael Wilson, this becomes a little more
24:45pronounced. But I don't know, maybe I'm a sucker here. I need to listen to the data. I need to just cross Jeremiah Love
24:52as well as Trey McBride off my draft boards. But I've been dumb enough to be taking those guys in round three. But I
24:59really appreciate you. I really hope I was able to help you out with this. And big thing that I want to point out here
25:04that people aren't going to like, the Patriots and the Jags are supposed to be much worse this year from an offensive
25:10perspective. And the offenses that should be much better are the Titans and the Raiders. But I really appreciate you. I really hope I was able to help
25:19you out with this video. Of course, if you want to win your fantasy league this year, the season pass on fogg
25:24fantasy.com is still only $34. This is going to get you hooked up with all the custom draft sheets for your exact
25:30league settings, your real-time draft assistance for your Sleeper, your ESPN, and your Yahoo drafts. And you'll be getting free questions that you can ask
25:39me in the live streams that I'm going to be streaming every single night until Christmas. Links in the description. And I really hope I get to see you out in
25:44the live stream later
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