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7 Wide Receivers Setup to Crush

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

15 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 3, 2026
Published
Mon, August 3, 2026
14
Player insights
14
Players mentioned
Topics
Amon-Ra St. BrownCeeDee LambChristian McCaffreyChristian WatsonD.J. MooreGeorge PickensJames CookJonathan TaylorJosh AllenKhalil ShakirMike EvansPuka NacuaRicky PearsallZay Flowers
Player analysis

Player insights

14

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection15:00

Amon-Ra St. Brown is considered the safest pick in round one due to his high floor, consistent 17-game availability, and annual top-five wide receiver finishes; data may even lean drafters toward him over Justin Jefferson for late round one picks.

Insight page

CeeDee Lamb

NegativeProjection10:30

CeeDee Lamb is identified as an exciting player in a high-scoring Dallas offense, but he is already being aggressively drafted as a round-one selection, limiting his value as a target.

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Christian McCaffrey

NegativeValue3:55

The source uses Christian McCaffrey as a benchmark for draft ranking, explicitly stating a preference for drafting Jackson Smith-Njigba over him in PPR formats.

Insight page

Christian Watson

PositiveValue4:20

Christian Watson has a wide ADP range, spanning from the fifth round on Yahoo to the seventh on ESPN. The source argues that drafting him in the sixth round is a sound move because he has a clear path to becoming the Packers' WR1 in a projected top-five offense, which would make him a near-lock for a top-24 finish despite his injury history and previous 13 PPG ceiling.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveValue22:01

DJ Moore is identified as a screaming target in drafts at his current WR26 ADP; while the source expresses concerns about him as a player, they note he could crush if the team increases passing volume or target concentration.

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George Pickens

NegativeProjection10:30

George Pickens is highlighted as an exciting player in the Dallas offense, but like CeeDee Lamb, he is already being aggressively drafted, with an ADP at the beginning of round three.

Insight page

James Cook

PositiveValue14:01

James Cook is a recommended target at the end of round one for drafters who have already secured running backs in the first two rounds; he plays a significant role in the Buffalo Bills' run-heavy offense, where he and Josh Allen combine for nearly 130 rushing yards per game.

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Jonathan Taylor

NegativeValue3:57

The source uses Jonathan Taylor as a benchmark for draft ranking, explicitly stating a preference for drafting Jackson Smith-Njigba over him in PPR formats.

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Josh Allen

NegativeUsage18:25

Josh Allen has averaged fewer than 220 passing yards per game over the last two seasons, but remains a consistent fantasy asset due to his rushing volume, having averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game in every year of his five-year career.

Insight page

Khalil Shakir

NegativeUsage17:17

Khalil Shakir finished as the WR42 and WR40 in the last two seasons, illustrating the Buffalo Bills' tendency to spread the ball across many players rather than producing a top-tier fantasy wide receiver.

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Mike Evans

PositiveValue8:36

Mike Evans is considered a perfect target for drafters who start with double anchor running backs and an elite tight end or quarterback. His ADP varies significantly by platform, ranging from a late fourth/early fifth rounder on FlockFantasy to a seventh-round pick on ESPN, where the source recommends scooping him for value.

Insight page

Puka Nacua

PositiveProjection23:21

Puka Nacua is being drafted as the WR2; he was the WR1 in points per game last season and remains a high-end asset in what is projected to be the best offense in the league.

Insight page

Ricky Pearsall

NegativeInjury8:21

The 49ers wide receiver room underwent a significant shakeup due to a major injury sustained by Ricky Pearsall.

Insight page

Zay Flowers

PositiveValue12:29

Zay Flowers improved his production from 12.3 to 14.3 points per game last season; the source identifies him as the perfect complement to draft at the 3/4 turn, though he is harder to acquire in best-ball formats where he is a mid-third round pick compared to his 3rd/4th round availability on other platforms.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

431
0:00The math really is unbelievable of how
0:02much wide receiver production is
0:03dictated on the offense that they were
0:05in. I looked over the past 22 years and
0:08looked at the top five offenses and the
0:10bottom five offenses in the NFL and
0:12found out that if you were in a top five
0:14offense as a wide receiver, you have a
0:1694% chance to be a top 36 wide receiver
0:19in fantasy. Compared to if you were the
0:21wide receiver one in a bottom five
0:23offense, you only had a 52% chance. Now,
0:27if you wanted to be a top 24 wide
0:28receiver, you have a 75% chance if
0:31you're in a top five offense and only
0:3327% in a bottom five. But, where it gets
0:36unbelievable is if you were the wide
0:38receiver one in a top five offense in
0:41the NFL, you have a 60% chance to be a
0:45top 12 wide receiver in fantasy. As
0:47opposed to if you were in a bottom five
0:49offense, your probability falls down to
0:513.6%
0:53and if we move that threshold only
0:55looking at elite wide receiver seasons,
0:57those are guys that finished at the top
0:59six or top three in fantasy. If you're
1:01in a bottom five offense, you literally
1:04had a 0% chance. However, if you were in
1:06a top five offense, you were up at 35%
1:09chance to be a top six wide receiver in
1:11fantasy and a 20% chance to be a top
1:14three. So, what this math has led to me
1:16doing over the past few years is
1:18aggressively targeting wide receivers
1:20that are in offenses that project to be
1:22great and aggressively avoiding wide
1:25receivers in offenses that project to be
1:26horrendous. Now, what I want to do in
1:28this video is look at what sports books
1:30are projecting for the top offenses this
1:33season and if we should be drafting
1:35their wide receivers in fantasy.
1:36Starting off with the ninth best offense
1:39in projections, we do have the Seattle
1:41Seahawks. We're going to keep this very
1:42brief. You don't need me to tell you
1:45Jaxon Smith-Njigba is an incredible wide
1:47receiver, that JSN is worth a round one
1:51pick. But, I do think we at least need
1:53to address everybody that's been calling
1:57JSN the most overrated player in round
2:00one. Well, I completely understand that
2:02the offensive coordinator changing here
2:04does pose a risk for JSN. And this
2:07offense did score 28.4 points per game
2:10last season, and they project to only
2:11score 24.8 this year. JSN is still a
2:1424-year-old wide receiver coming off a
2:17season in which he just averaged 21
2:19points per game. He was an elite
2:20prospect coming into the league. Even if
2:22the offense is supposed to be worse with
2:24the change of the offensive coordinator,
2:25they're still supposed to have a chance
2:27to be a top-five unit. So, JSN, I have
2:29zero problem at all drafting in round
2:33one of fantasy drafts. He's my 105, and
2:35I'm taking him over McCaffrey. I'm
2:37taking him over Jonathan Taylor. Of
2:39course, assuming it's a PPR format. Now,
2:41I will say if you're in a non-PPR
2:43league, half-PPR format, then there may
2:45be have to make the adjustments. But, if
2:47you don't understand how to adjust to
2:48your exact league settings and the exact
2:50draft platform that you're on, don't
2:52worry. We have you covered with the
2:54flockfantasy.com season
2:56We have over 70 custom draft sheets for
2:59your league with the exact settings and
3:01platform, the real-time draft
3:02assistants, the rest-of-season rankings,
3:04the weekly rankings, and the trade
3:06calculator for you to use as well. All
3:09of that comes with the $34
3:10flockfantasy.com season pass. Not $34 a
3:14month, 34 for the entire season. And if
3:16you use code flock with the link in the
3:17description or comment section, you're
3:19also going to be getting free questions
3:20you're able to ask me in the live
3:22streams that we're going to be doing
3:23every night during the year. Now, moving
3:25over to the Green Bay Packers, this is
3:27where things begin to get a little bit
3:29interesting because the Packers project
3:31to be a top-10 offense in the league and
3:33have a very real possibility of being a
3:36top-five unit. Now, what I want to point
3:38out here is there is a massive, massive
3:41range of where Christian Watson goes in
3:43drafts. In Yahoo drafts currently,
3:45Christian Watson is an early fifth-round
3:48pick. Now, if we go through and look at
3:50other platforms, such as
3:52ESPN, Christian Watson goes in the
3:54seventh, and in your sleeper drafts, he
3:56goes in the middle of the sixth. Now, if
3:58you're looking at the rankings on
3:59flockfantasy.com, the consensus does
4:02have him as an early sixth-round pick.
4:04But, if we go through and look at the
4:06Packers' projected outlook for this
4:08year, obviously, the wide receiver
4:10competition is lessened now that you
4:12don't have Romeo Doubs, and you don't
4:14have Dontayvion Wicks, and the Christian
4:16Watson target competition is a tight end
4:19with Tucker Kraft and Matthew Golden,
4:21and then Jayden Reed, who typically only
4:23plays in three-wide receiver sets. So,
4:25Christian Watson, I actually think,
4:27while it may look aggressive on the
4:29surface to take a wide receiver that's
4:31never managed to stay healthy, um that's
4:33never finished with more than 13 points
4:36per game, to take him here as a
4:38sixth-round pick, I think it's
4:39completely fine. Cuz if he does emerge
4:42as the wide receiver one, and if the
4:44Packers are a top-five offense, he's
4:46almost a lock to be a top-24 wide
4:49receiver in points per game, assuming he
4:51can stay healthy. Now, the 49ers are
4:53going to be incredibly interesting to
4:55look at, because with San Francisco, we
4:57just had a massive shakeup with their
5:00wide receiver room. Obviously, we had a
5:01pretty big injury with Ricky Pearsall.
5:03This leads to Deebo Samuel being added,
5:06but if you look at the depth chart with
5:07how it stands, we have George Kittle
5:09coming back from the torn Achilles,
5:10Christian McCaffrey 30 years old. So, I
5:13actually think the wide receiver room
5:14should be seeing more targets this year
5:16than what we've had over the past few.
5:17And Mike Evans, very similar to
5:19Christian Watson, has a massive, massive
5:21range of where he goes in these drafts.
5:23Currently, on flockfantasy.com, he has a
5:25ranking of a late fourth, early
5:28fifth-round pick. In sleeper drafts,
5:29he's a fifth rounder, completely fine to
5:31take him there. In your Yahoo drafts,
5:33he's an early sixth rounder. In your CBS
5:36drafts, he's a late fifth. And in your
5:38ESPN drafts, he's a seventh-round pick.
5:40So, I actually think Mike Evans is like
5:42the perfect wide receiver to target if
5:45you maybe start your draft off with
5:47double-anchor running backs and an elite
5:49tight end or an elite quarterback. Like
5:50hypothetically, let's say you went
5:52through and you took Christian McCaffrey
5:55or Jonathan Taylor in the middle of
5:56round one. Then you follow that round
5:58two selection up with Amari and Hampton,
6:00and then around three you took Trey
6:02McBride. Then all of a sudden around
6:04four, five, and six, you probably should
6:06be looking at the wide receiver position
6:07to try to catch up. And if you're able
6:09to take Mike Evans in the fifth, I would
6:11go ahead and do so. Now of course, if
6:12you're using our ESPN draft sheets, our
6:15draft sheets will probably suggest you
6:16taking him in the sixth round because
6:18again, if most people on ESPN are
6:20drafting him in the seventh, we want you
6:21to be able to scoop value elsewhere at
6:23the same time. Now moving over to the
6:25Dallas Cowboys, nothing's interesting to
6:27talk about here. Obviously with Dallas,
6:30CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are both
6:31very exciting players. The offense
6:33projects to be really good, which means
6:35there's going to be a lot of points
6:36scored at wide receiver. But CeeDee
6:38Lamb's around one selection, while at
6:40the same time George Pickens goes at the
6:42beginning of round three. So, I don't
6:44want to come out here and tell you like,
6:45"Oh, draft the Dallas Cowboys wide
6:47receivers." Good offenses put out a lot
6:49of wide receiver points and the Cowboys
6:51should be good because fantasy drafters
6:53already understand this, right? They are
6:54already aggressively being drafted. I
6:56can say the same thing with the
6:58Cincinnati Bengals. Right now the
6:59Bengals project to be the fifth best
7:00offense in the NFL, and we can go
7:03through and we can say, "Well, Ja'Marr
7:05Chase is the wide receiver one off the
7:07board in fantasy football drafts right
7:09now." And at the same time, Tee Higgins,
7:12like obviously it's a little bit
7:13different based on the exact platform
7:15you're on, but Tee Higgins is a third
7:18round pick in Yahoo drafts. He's a third
7:20round pick in Underdog drafts, CBS
7:22drafts. Even on Sleeper, he goes at the
7:24end of the third. The only place you're
7:26getting him as a value would be ESPN in
7:28the fourth round, which again, is why if
7:30you're using our ESPN draft sheets,
7:32you'll probably see them suggest you
7:34take running backs early because the
7:36expectation will be you're able to go
7:38through and take like Higgins in the
7:39fourth, then maybe Mike Evans in the
7:41fifth, and Christian Watson in the
7:43sixth, and really build out your wide
7:45receiver room after your running backs.
7:46It's going to be a little bit dependent
7:47on the platform that you're on. Now,
7:49moving over to Zay Flowers and the
7:51Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore projects to
7:53score just as many points as Cincinnati
7:55this season. Zay Flowers last year did
7:58take a step upwards with his points per
8:00game. He jumped from 12.3 points per
8:02game up to 14.3. Now, they did change a
8:05lot of things with this team. Obviously,
8:07it's a completely different coaching
8:08staff that you have. Derrick Henry is
8:10another year older, and they lost Isaiah
8:13Likely, but they did add a couple rookie
8:15wide receivers on day two of the NFL
8:17draft. With Flowers, I understand the
8:19thought process of people really wanting
8:21to push him aggressively. I'm going to
8:22be honest, most of the drafts that I
8:24have done so far this year have been
8:26best ball leagues where Zay Flowers goes
8:28in the middle of the third round, so
8:29it's a little bit tough for me to draft
8:30him then. But, in sleeper drafts, he's a
8:33fourth round pick. ESPN, he's a late
8:35third. Yahoo, he's a late third. CBS,
8:37he's a fourth as well. So, if I was
8:39drafting Flock League as an example, and
8:41we were to see you running back running
8:43back happen through the first two
8:44rounds, hypothetically say at the end of
8:46round one, I take James Cook. At the
8:48beginning of round two, I take Ashton
8:50Jeanty. Zay Flowers would be like the
8:52perfect complement there to go wide
8:54receiver wide receiver at the three-four
8:56turn. Now, going over to the Detroit
8:58Lions, I don't really want to say
8:59anything about Amon-Ra St. Brown. I
9:01think St. Brown's probably the safest
9:03pick in fantasy football in round one.
9:05Again, you just have an incredibly high
9:07floor ceiling combo. He plays 17 games
9:09every season. Finishes as top five wide
9:11receiver in fantasy every year. But,
9:13fantasy drafters already understand
9:15this, right? That's why he has an
9:16average ranking of seven on
9:18flockfantasy.com. He goes to pick eight
9:20in ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper. He goes at
9:23seven on Underdog, eight CBS. So, it's
9:26pretty much locked and loaded with the
9:27consensus that St. Brown is after the
9:30top three wide receivers in Chase, Puka,
9:34JSN, which all of those offenses are
9:36supposed to be good in their own right.
9:37And then you have Amon-Ra there at four,
9:38so I'm not going to be arguing too much
9:41one way or another. I guess if you
9:42wanted to use this video and have any
9:44clean takeaways with Amon-Ra St. Brown
9:46specifically is maybe this data does
9:48lean you to go with St. Brown as opposed
9:51to Justin Jefferson if you were
9:53considering Jefferson as your late round
9:54one pick. Now, with the Buffalo Bills,
9:57this is going to be one of the most
9:58confusing things in our data set because
10:01I want to go back and I want to remind
10:03y'all that if you were the wide receiver
10:05for a top five offense in the NFL,
10:08historically, you have a 94% chance of
10:12finishing as a top 36 wide receiver in
10:14fantasy. That is 104 wide receivers have
10:17done that out of a list of 110 over the
10:20past 22 seasons. However, this past year
10:24and the year prior, the Buffalo Bills
10:27were one of the only offenses in NFL
10:30history that have been a top five
10:32scoring unit and have not had a wide
10:35receiver finish as a top 36 guy. Khalil
10:37Shakir was the wide receiver 42 last
10:39season, and Khalil Shakir was the wide
10:41receiver 40 the year prior, both years
10:44in which Buffalo was a top five offense
10:46and again didn't produce a top level
10:49wide receiver. It is an incredibly
10:51unique situation that I think you need
10:53to go through and look in a little bit
10:55more depth and a little more nuanced
10:57because with Buffalo, obviously, so much
11:00of their production does just come with
11:02what this team's able to do on the
11:03ground. Like going through and looking
11:05at the passing volume that we've had for
11:06Josh Allen back-to-back seasons now,
11:08back-to-back years Josh Allen has
11:10actually averaged fewer than 220 passing
11:13yards per game. However, Josh Allen has
11:16averaged at least 30 rushing yards per
11:18game every year of his NFL career over
11:20the past five. So, if we combined the
11:23Josh Allen rushing yards per game as
11:26well as the James Cook rushing yards per
11:28game, not considering any secondary
11:30running backs in this Buffalo offense,
11:32you can actually see that the Buffalo
11:36Bills with their top two leading rushers
11:38are averaging almost 130 rushing yards
11:41per game as opposed to only 215 passing
11:45yards. So, it is a very unique scenario
11:48in which Buffalo, while being one of the
11:50league's top offenses, they primarily
11:52just do so on the ground and also Josh
11:55Allen's going to take a ton of those
11:57rushing touchdowns himself. Now, the
11:58other thing that is going to be
12:00incredibly relevant to note here on why
12:02the Buffalo Bills haven't had one of
12:04these top wide receivers in fantasy over
12:06the past few seasons despite actually
12:08being that top five offense, will be the
12:10amount of wide receivers and the amount
12:12of tight ends, running backs, just the
12:13amount of players that get on the field
12:15and get involved in Buffalo. This is one
12:18of the most spread-out offenses in the
12:20entire NFL. Like, if we go through and
12:22look at the amount of players that had
12:24at least 15 targets for the Buffalo
12:27Bills last season. You have Khalil
12:28Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid,
12:31Dawson Knox, James Cook, Joshua Palmer,
12:33Ty Johnson, Tyrell Shavers, Jackson
12:36Haws, Gabe Davis, Elijah Moore. We're at
12:3911 players with 15 or more targets. If
12:41we instead go and look at another
12:43offense that we've already talked about
12:44in this video, such as the Seattle
12:46Seahawks, there they have JSN, Kupp, AJ
12:49Barner, Kenneth Walker, Shaquille,
12:51Elijah Royal, Zach Charbonnet, and Tory
12:54Horton. So, they only have eight guys
12:55that were seeing 15 or more targets. It
12:57is a massive discrepancy in how some of
12:59these offenses use just 10 guys out
13:02there every single week in comparison to
13:04some are only realistically going to
13:06throw it to like four players. So,
13:08Buffalo has been an incredibly unique
13:10setup both because they are incredibly
13:12run heavy, while at the same time, they
13:15spread the ball out more than any other
13:17offense. So, this data to me, before we
13:20take into that context, would make DJ
13:23Moore just a screaming target in drafts.
13:26DJ Moore does end up going as the wide
13:29receiver 26 off the board on average,
13:32which honestly is probably about right.
13:34I have massive concerns for DJ Moore as
13:37the player, but maybe this team changes
13:39their passing rate, maybe this team gets
13:41a little bit more concentrated. And if
13:44that happens, DJ Moore could crush. And
13:46then lastly, the Los Angeles Rams
13:48project to be the best offense in the
13:50league, but very similar to Ja'Marr
13:52Chase, very similar to um Jackson
13:54Smith-Njigba,
13:56CD Lamb, I don't need to try to convince
13:58you that oh, the Rams are going to be
14:00good, draft Puka Nacua, right? Puka
14:02Nacua off the board as the wide receiver
14:03two already in fantasy drafts. Last
14:06season, he was the wide receiver one in
14:07points per game. So, frankly, you know
14:10to draft Puka, you know to go through
14:11and draft JSN, Amon-Ra St. Brown,
14:13Ja'Marr Chase. The main point of this
14:15video is if you can get Mike Evans,
14:17Christian Watson in the middle rounds,
14:19or maybe if DJ Moore slides to you in
14:21round six, if these offenses are as good
14:23as people project them to be, there
14:25could be a decent amount of value from
14:27those mid-round receivers. But, I think
14:28that's all I got for you. I want to
14:29remind you that as of today, the
14:31flockfantasy.com season pass is still
14:34only $34. That's going to get you set up
14:36with all the custom draft sheets, all
14:38the real-time draft assistance, the rest
14:40of season ranks, the weekly ranks, the
14:42trade calculator, and access to pretty
14:44much all your favorite creators on
14:45YouTube. The link is in the description,
14:47it's in the comment section. If you sign
14:49up with code flock, you're also going to
14:50get free start/sit and trade questions
14:52that you can ask me during the year, and
14:53I'm going to be live streaming here
14:55every single night until Christmas. But,
14:57I really appreciate you, and I really
14:58hope to get to see you on the live
14:59stream later tonight.

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