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7 Wide Receivers Setup to Crush

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

15 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 3, 2026
Published
Mon, August 3, 2026
14
Player insights
14
Players mentioned
Topics
Amon-Ra St. BrownCeeDee LambChristian McCaffreyChristian WatsonD.J. MooreGeorge PickensJames CookJonathan TaylorJosh AllenKhalil ShakirMike EvansPuka NacuaRicky PearsallZay Flowers
Player analysis

Player insights

14

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection15:00

Amon-Ra St. Brown is considered the safest pick in round one due to his high floor, consistent 17-game availability, and annual top-five wide receiver finishes; data may even lean drafters toward him over Justin Jefferson for late round one picks.

Insight page

CeeDee Lamb

NegativeProjection10:30

CeeDee Lamb is identified as an exciting player in a high-scoring Dallas offense, but he is already being aggressively drafted as a round-one selection, limiting his value as a target.

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Christian McCaffrey

NegativeValue3:55

The source uses Christian McCaffrey as a benchmark for draft ranking, explicitly stating a preference for drafting Jackson Smith-Njigba over him in PPR formats.

Insight page

Christian Watson

PositiveValue4:20

Christian Watson has a wide ADP range, spanning from the fifth round on Yahoo to the seventh on ESPN. The source argues that drafting him in the sixth round is a sound move because he has a clear path to becoming the Packers' WR1 in a projected top-five offense, which would make him a near-lock for a top-24 finish despite his injury history and previous 13 PPG ceiling.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveValue22:01

DJ Moore is identified as a screaming target in drafts at his current WR26 ADP; while the source expresses concerns about him as a player, they note he could crush if the team increases passing volume or target concentration.

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George Pickens

NegativeProjection10:30

George Pickens is highlighted as an exciting player in the Dallas offense, but like CeeDee Lamb, he is already being aggressively drafted, with an ADP at the beginning of round three.

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James Cook

PositiveValue14:01

James Cook is a recommended target at the end of round one for drafters who have already secured running backs in the first two rounds; he plays a significant role in the Buffalo Bills' run-heavy offense, where he and Josh Allen combine for nearly 130 rushing yards per game.

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Jonathan Taylor

NegativeValue3:57

The source uses Jonathan Taylor as a benchmark for draft ranking, explicitly stating a preference for drafting Jackson Smith-Njigba over him in PPR formats.

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Josh Allen

NegativeUsage18:25

Josh Allen has averaged fewer than 220 passing yards per game over the last two seasons, but remains a consistent fantasy asset due to his rushing volume, having averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game in every year of his five-year career.

Insight page

Khalil Shakir

NegativeUsage17:17

Khalil Shakir finished as the WR42 and WR40 in the last two seasons, illustrating the Buffalo Bills' tendency to spread the ball across many players rather than producing a top-tier fantasy wide receiver.

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Mike Evans

PositiveValue8:36

Mike Evans is considered a perfect target for drafters who start with double anchor running backs and an elite tight end or quarterback. His ADP varies significantly by platform, ranging from a late fourth/early fifth rounder on FlockFantasy to a seventh-round pick on ESPN, where the source recommends scooping him for value.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveProjection23:21

Puka Nacua is being drafted as the WR2; he was the WR1 in points per game last season and remains a high-end asset in what is projected to be the best offense in the league.

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Ricky Pearsall

NegativeInjury8:21

The 49ers wide receiver room underwent a significant shakeup due to a major injury sustained by Ricky Pearsall.

Insight page

Zay Flowers

PositiveValue12:29

Zay Flowers improved his production from 12.3 to 14.3 points per game last season; the source identifies him as the perfect complement to draft at the 3/4 turn, though he is harder to acquire in best-ball formats where he is a mid-third round pick compared to his 3rd/4th round availability on other platforms.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

427
0:00The math really is unbelievable of how
0:02much wide receiver production is
0:03dictated on the offense that they were
0:05in. I looked over the past 22 years and
0:08looked at the top five offenses and the
0:10bottom five offenses in the NFL and
0:13found out that if you were in a top five
0:14offense as a wide receiver, you have a
0:1794% chance to be a top 36 wide receiver
0:19in fantasy. Compared to if you were the
0:21wide receiver one in a bottom five
0:23offense, you only had a 52% chance. Now,
0:27if you wanted to be a top 24 wide
0:29receiver, you have a 75% chance if
0:31you're in a top five offense and only
0:3327% in a bottom five. But where it gets
0:36unbelievable is if you were the wide
0:38receiver one in a top five offense in
0:41the NFL, you have a 60% chance to be a
0:45top 12 wide receiver in fantasy as
0:47opposed to if you were in a bottom five
0:49offense, your probability falls down to
0:513.6%. And if we move that threshold to
0:54only looking at elite wide receiver
0:57seasons, those are guys that finished at
0:59the top six or top three in fantasy. If
1:01you were in a bottom five offense, you
1:03literally had a 0% chance. However, if
1:06you were in a top five offense, you were
1:08up at 35% chance to be a top six wide
1:11receiver in fantasy and a 20% chance to
1:14be a top three. So, what this math has
1:16led to me doing over the past few years
1:18is aggressively targeting wide receivers
1:20that are in offenses that project to be
1:22great and aggressively avoiding wide
1:25receivers in offenses that project to be
1:27horrendous. Now, what I want to do in
1:28this video is look at what sports books
1:30are projecting for the top offenses this
1:33season and if we should be drafting
1:35their wide receivers in fantasy.
1:37Starting off with the ninth best offense
1:39in projections, we do have the Seattle
1:41Seahawks. We're going to keep this very
1:43brief. You don't need me to tell you
1:45Jackson Smith and Jigba is an incredible
1:47wide receiver. That JSN is worth a round
1:50one pick. But I do think we at least
1:53need to address everybody that's been
1:57calling JSN the most overrated player in
2:00round one. While I completely understand
2:02that the offensive coordinator changing
2:03here does pose a risk for JSN and this
2:07offense did score 28.4 points per game
2:10last season and they project to only
2:11score 24.8 8 this year. JSN is still a
2:1524 year old wide receiver coming off a
2:17season in which he just averaged 21
2:19points per game. He was an elite
2:20prospect coming into the league. Even if
2:22the offense is supposed to be worse with
2:24the change in the offensive coordinator,
2:25they're still supposed to have a chance
2:27to be a top five unit. So JS, I have
2:30zero problem at all drafting in round
2:33one of fantasy drafts. He's my 105 and
2:35I'm taking him over McCaffrey. I'm
2:37taking him over Jonathan Taylor. Of
2:39course, assuming it's a PPR format. Now,
2:41I will say if you're in a nonPR league,
2:43half PPPR format, then there maybe you
2:45have to make the adjustments. But if you
2:47don't understand how to adjust to your
2:49exact league settings in the exact draft
2:51platform that you're on, don't worry. We
2:53have you covered with the
2:54flockfantasy.com season pass. We have
2:56over 70 custom draft sheets for your
2:59league with the exact settings and
3:01platform, the realtime draft assistance,
3:03the rest of season rankings, the weekly
3:05rankings, and the trade calculator for
3:07you to use as well. All of that comes
3:09with the $34 flockfantasy.com season
3:12pass. Not $34 a month, 34 for the entire
3:15season. And if you use code flock with
3:17the link in the description or comment
3:18section, you're also going to be getting
3:20free questions you're able to ask me in
3:22the live streams that we're going to be
3:23doing every night during the year. Now,
3:25moving over to the Green Bay Packers,
3:27this is where things begin to get a
3:29little bit interesting because the
3:30Packers project to be a top 10 offense
3:33in the league and have a very real
3:35possibility of being a top five unit.
3:37Now, what I want to point out here is
3:39there is a massive, massive range of
3:42where Christian Watson goes in drafts.
3:44In Yahoo drafts, currently Christian
3:46Watson is an early fifth round pick.
3:48Now, if we go through and look at other
3:50platforms such as ESPN, ESPN, Christian
3:53Watson goes in the seventh and in your
3:55sleeper drafts, he goes in the middle of
3:57the sixth. Now, if you're looking at the
3:59rankings on flockfantasy.com, the
4:01consensus does have him as an early
4:03sixth round pick. But if we go through
4:05and look at the Packers projected
4:07outlook for this year, obviously the
4:09wide receiver competition is lessened
4:12now that you don't have Romeo Dobs and
4:14you don't have Dantavian Wixs and the
4:16Christian Watson target competition is a
4:18tight end with Tucker Craft, Matthew
4:20Golden, and then Jaden Reed who
4:22typically only plays in three wide
4:24receiver sets. So, Christian Watson, I
4:26actually think while it may look
4:28aggressive on the surface, to take a
4:30wide receiver that's never managed to
4:32stay healthy, um, that's never finished
4:34with more than 13 points per game, to
4:37take him here as a sixth round pick, I
4:39think it's completely fine because if he
4:41does emerge as the wide receiver one,
4:43and if the Packers are a top five
4:45offense, he's almost a lock to be a top
4:4824 wide receiver in points per game,
4:50assuming he can stay healthy. Now, the
4:5249ers are going to be incredibly
4:54interesting to look at because with San
4:56Francisco, we just had a massive shakeup
4:59with their wide receiver room.
5:01Obviously, we had a pretty big injury
5:02with Ricky Pier Salt. This leads to Debo
5:05Samuel being added. But if we look at
5:06the depth chart with how it stands, we
5:08have George KD coming back from the torn
5:10Achilles, Christian McCaffrey, 30 years
5:12old. So, I actually think the wide
5:14receiver room should be seeing more
5:15targets this year than what we've had
5:16over the past few. And Mike Evans, very
5:18similar to Christian Watson, has a
5:20massive, massive range of where he goes
5:22in these drafts. Currently on
5:24flockfantasy.com, he has a ranking of a
5:27late fourth, early fifth round pick. In
5:29sleeper drafts, he's a fifthrounder.
5:31Completely fine to take him there. In
5:32your Yahoo drafts, he's an early
5:34sixthrounder. In your CBS drafts, he's a
5:36late fifth. And in your ESPN drafts,
5:39he's a seventh round pick. though, I
5:41actually think Mike Evans is like the
5:43perfect wide receiver to target if you
5:45maybe start your draft off with double
5:47anchor running backs and an elite tight
5:49end or an elite quarterback. Like
5:51hypothetically, let's say you went
5:52through and you took Christian McCaffrey
5:55or Jonathan Taylor in the middle of
5:56round one. Then you followed that round
5:58two selection up with Amari and Hampton.
6:00And then in round three, you took Trey
6:02McBride. Then all of a sudden, rounds
6:04four, five, and six, you probably should
6:06be looking at the wide receiver position
6:07to try to catch up. And if you're able
6:09to take Mike Evans in the fifth, I would
6:11go ahead and do so. Now, of course, if
6:13you're using our ESPN draft sheets, our
6:15draft sheets will probably suggest you
6:16taking him in the sixth round because
6:18again, if most people on ESPN are
6:20drafting him in the seventh, we want you
6:22to be able to scoop value elsewhere at
6:23the same time. Now, moving over to the
6:25Dallas Cowboys, nothing's interesting to
6:27talk about here. Obviously, with Dallas,
6:30CD Lamb and George Pickins are both very
6:32exciting players. The offense projects
6:34to be really good, which means there's
6:35going to be a lot of points scored at
6:36wide receiver. But CD Lambs a round one
6:39selection while at the same time George
6:41Pickkins goes at the beginning of round
6:43three. So I don't want to come out here
6:45and tell you like oh draft the Dallas
6:46Cowboys wide receivers. Good offenses
6:49put out a lot of wide receiver points
6:50and the Cowboys should be good because
6:52fantasy drafters already understand
6:54this, right? They are already
6:55aggressively being drafted. I could say
6:57the same thing with the Cincinnati
6:58Bengals. Right now, the Bengals project
7:00to be the fifth best offense in the NFL.
7:02And we can go through and we can say,
7:04well, Jamar Chase is the wide receiver
7:07one off the board in fantasy football
7:09drafts right now. And at the same time,
7:11T. Higgins, like obviously, it's a
7:13little bit different based on the exact
7:15platform you're on. But T. Higgins is a
7:18third round pick in Yahoo drafts. He's a
7:20third round pick in underdog drafts, CBS
7:22drafts. Even on Sleeper, he goes at the
7:24end of the third. The only place you're
7:26getting them as a value would be ESPN in
7:28the fourth round, which again is why if
7:30you're using our ESPN draft sheets,
7:32you'll probably see them suggest you
7:34take running backs early because the
7:36expectation will be you're able to go
7:38through and take like Higgins in the
7:40fourth, then maybe Mike Evans in the
7:41fifth and Christian Watson in the sixth
7:43and really build out your wide receiver
7:45room after your running backs. It's
7:46going to be a little bit dependent on
7:47the platform that you're on. Now, moving
7:49over to Z Flowers in the Baltimore
7:51Ravens. Baltimore projects to score just
7:53as many points as Cincinnati this
7:56season. Zay Flowers last year did take a
7:58step upwards with his points per game.
8:00He jumped from 12.3 points per game up
8:02to 14.3. Now, they did change a lot of
8:06things with this team. Obviously, it's a
8:07completely different coaching staff that
8:09you have. Derrick Henry is another year
8:11older and they lost Isaiah likely, but
8:14they did add a couple rookie wide
8:15receivers on day two of the NFL draft.
8:17With Flowers, I understand the thought
8:20process of people really wanting to push
8:22him aggressively. I'm going to be
8:23honest, most of the drafts that I have
8:24done so far this year have been best
8:27leagues where Z Flowers goes in the
8:28middle of the third round. So, it's a
8:30little bit tough for me to draft him
8:31then. But in sleeper drafts, he's a
8:33fourth round pick. ESPN, he's a late
8:35third. Yahoo, he's a late third. CBS,
8:37he's a fourth as well. So, if I was
8:39drafting in the Flock League, as an
8:41example, and we were to see running back
8:43running back happen through the first
8:44two rounds, hypothetically say at the
8:46end of round one, I'd take James Cook.
8:48At the beginning of round two, I'd take
8:50Ashton Genty. Zay Flowers would be like
8:52the perfect compliment there to go wide
8:54receiver, wide receiver at the 34 turn.
8:56Now, going over to the Detroit Lions, I
8:58don't really want to say anything about
9:00Aman Ross St. Brown. I think St. Brown's
9:02probably the safest pick in fantasy
9:04football in round one. Again, you just
9:06have an incredibly high floor ceiling
9:08combo. He plays 17 games every season,
9:10finishes as top five wide receiver in
9:12fantasy every year. But fantasy drafters
9:14already understand this, right? That's
9:16why he has an average ranking of seven
9:18on flockfantasy.com. He goes to pick
9:20eight in ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper. He goes
9:23at seven on Underdog, eight CBS. So,
9:26it's pretty much locked and loaded with
9:27the consensus that St. Brown is after
9:30the top three wide receivers in Chase,
9:33Puka, JSN, which all of those offenses
9:36are supposed to be good in their own
9:37right. And then you have a Monra there
9:38at four. So, I'm not going to be arguing
9:40too much one way or another. I guess if
9:42you wanted to use this video and have
9:44any clean takeaways with a Monra St.
9:46Brown specifically, as maybe this data
9:48does lean you to go with St. Brown as
9:50opposed to Justin Jefferson if you were
9:53considering Jefferson as your late round
9:54one pick. Now, with the Buffalo Bills,
9:57this is going to be one of the most
9:58confusing things in our data set because
10:01I want to go back and I want to remind
10:03y'all that if you were the wide receiver
10:05one for a top five offense in the NFL,
10:08historically, you have a 94% chance of
10:12finishing as a top 36 wide receiver in
10:14fantasy. That is 104 wide receivers have
10:17done that out of a list of 110 over the
10:20past 22 seasons. However, this past year
10:24and the year prior, the Buffalo Bills
10:27were one of the only offenses in NFL
10:31history that have been a top five
10:32scoring unit and have not had a wide
10:35receiver finish as a top 36 guy. Khalil
10:37Shakir was the wide receiver 42 last
10:39season and Khil Shakir was the wide
10:41receiver 40 the year prior. Both years
10:44in which Buffalo was a top five offense
10:46and again didn't produce a top level
10:49wide receiver. It is an incredibly
10:51unique situation that I think you need
10:53to go through and look in a little bit
10:55more depth and a little more nuance
10:57because with Buffalo, obviously so much
11:00of their production does just come with
11:02what this team's able to do on the
11:03ground. Like going through and looking
11:05at the passing volume that we've had for
11:06Josh Allen backto-back seasons. Now,
11:08back-to-back years, Josh Allen has
11:10actually averaged fewer than 220 passing
11:13yards per game. However, Josh Allen has
11:16averaged at least 30 rushing yards per
11:18game every year of his NFL career over
11:21the past five. So, if we combined the
11:23Josh Allen rushing yards per game as
11:26well as the James Cook rushing yards per
11:28game, not considering any secondary
11:30running backs in this Buffalo offense,
11:32you can actually see that the Buffalo
11:36Bills with their top two leading rushers
11:38are averaging almost 130 rushing yards
11:41per game as opposed to only 215 passing
11:45yards. So, it is a very unique scenario
11:48in which Buffalo, while being one of the
11:50league's top offenses, they primarily
11:52just do so on the ground and also Josh
11:55Allen's going to take a ton of those
11:57rushing touchdowns himself. Now, the
11:59other thing that is going to be
12:00incredibly relevant to note here on why
12:02the Buffalo Bills haven't had one of
12:04these top wide receivers in fantasy over
12:06the past few seasons, despite actually
12:08being that top five offense, will be the
12:10amount of wide receivers and the amount
12:12of tight ends, running backs, just the
12:14amount of players that get on the field
12:15and get involved in Buffalo. This is one
12:18of the most spread out offenses in the
12:20entire NFL. Like if we go through and
12:22look at the amount of players that had
12:24at least 15 targets for the Buffalo
12:27Bills last season, you have Khalil
12:29Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Concade,
12:31Dawson Knox, James Cook, Joshua Palmer,
12:33Ty Johnson, Tyrell Shavers, Jackson Haw,
12:36Gabe Davis, Elijah Moore, we're at 11
12:40players with 15 or more targets. If we
12:42instead go and look at another offense
12:44that we've already talked about in this
12:45video, such as the Seattle Seahawks
12:47there, they have JSN Cup, AJ Barner,
12:50Kenneth Walker, Shake, Elijah Royo, Zack
12:53Sharpet, and Tory Horton. So, they only
12:55have eight guys that were seeing 15 or
12:57more targets. It is a massive
12:58discrepancy in how some of these
13:00offenses use just 10 guys out there
13:02every single week in comparison to some
13:04are only realistically going to throw it
13:06to like four players. So Buffalo has
13:09been an incredibly unique setup both
13:11because they are incredibly runheavy
13:13while at the same time they spread the
13:15ball out more than any other offense. So
13:18this data to me before we take into that
13:21context would make DJ Moore just a
13:24screaming target in drafts. DJ Moore
13:27does end up going as the wide receiver
13:3026 off the board on average, which
13:32honestly is probably about right. I have
13:35massive concerns for DJ Moore as the
13:37player, but maybe this team changes
13:40their passing rate. Maybe this team gets
13:42a little bit more concentrated and if
13:44that happens, DJ Moore could crush. And
13:46then lastly, the Los Angeles Rams
13:48project to be the best offense in the
13:50league, but very similar to Jamar Chase,
13:52very similar to um Jackson Smith and
13:54Jigba, CD Lamb. I don't need to try to
13:58convince you that, oh, the Rams are
13:59going to be good. Draft Puganua, right?
14:01Puka Nakua off the board is the wide
14:03receiver two already in fantasy drafts.
14:06Last season he was the wide receiver one
14:07in points per game. So frankly, you
14:10know, to draft Puka, you know, to go
14:11through and draft JSN, Ammonra, St.
14:13Brown, Jamar Chase. The main point of
14:15this video is if you can get Mike Evans,
14:17Christian Watson in the middle rounds or
14:19maybe if DJ Moore slides to you in round
14:21six, if these offenses are as good as
14:23people project them to be, there could
14:25be a decent amount of value from those
14:27mid-round receivers. But I think that's
14:29all I got for you. I want to remind you
14:30that as of today, the flockfantasy.com
14:33season pass is still only $34. That's
14:36going to get you set up with all the
14:37custom draft sheets, all the realtime
14:39draft assistance, the rest of season
14:40ranks, the weekly ranks, the trade
14:42calculator, and access to pretty much
14:44all your favorite creators on YouTube.
14:46The link is in the description. It's in
14:48the comment section. If you sign up with
14:49code flock, you're also going to get
14:50free start sit and trade questions that
14:52you can ask me during the year. And I'm
14:54going to be live streaming here every
14:55single night until Christmas. But I
14:57really appreciate you and I really hope
14:58I get to see you out in the live stream
15:00later

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