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16 min

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Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

A.J. BrownBryce YoungChase BrownChristian WatsonD.J. MooreDeVonta SmithDK MetcalfDrake LondonDrake MayeJameson WilliamsJaylen WaddleJordan AddisonMakai LemonMichael Pittman

Player analysis

Player insights

A.J. Brown

PositiveValue9:11

A.J. Brown is a strong buy-low target because his market value has not adjusted to his injury status; his expert average ranking has remained stagnant for a month. He is a preferred target over D.J. Moore, Jaylen Waddle, and Jameson Williams, and he is expected to step into a wide receiver room in New England that lacks a consistent target earner, especially with Mack Hollins on IR.

Insight page

Bryce Young

NegativeValue22:24

The source suggests Bryce Young as a potential player to include as a sweetener in trade negotiations.

Insight page

Chase Brown

PositiveValue0:19

Chase Brown is a strong buy-low candidate despite a slow start. He maintains consistent volume with 14.2 carries and 5.6 targets per game, and is projected as a borderline top-12 running back (RB11 in rest-of-season ranks). The source dismisses concerns regarding Samaje Perine, noting that Perine is 31 and not a superior talent, and emphasizes that Brown historically finishes seasons strong.

Insight page

Christian Watson

NegativeValue6:00

Christian Watson is considered a trade asset that could be moved to acquire DeVonta Smith, though the source notes that significant additional value would be required in return to make the trade worthwhile.

Insight page

D.J. Moore

NegativeValue10:23

D.J. Moore is ranked ahead of A.J. Brown in current expert average rankings, but the source prefers A.J. Brown over him in any trade scenario.

Insight page

DeVonta Smith

PositiveProjection4:46

DeVonta Smith is a strong buy-low candidate expected to return from a hamstring injury this week. Despite the Eagles' offensive struggles, he is viewed as a high-end WR2 due to massive target volume and lack of competition. His expert rank previously dropped from 26 to 39 due to missing weeks four and five.

Insight page

DK Metcalf

PositiveValue22:29

Despite a career-worst start averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game and poor efficiency (1.32 YPRR), the source identifies DK Metcalf as a buy-low candidate. He is seeing 7.4 targets per game, his highest since 2023. With Roman Wilson injured and limited target competition in Pittsburgh, Metcalf is considered startable and currently undervalued as a WR3/WR4 in expert ranks. The source suggests trading away players like Jameson Williams or Chris Olave to acquire him for an upgrade.

Insight page

Drake London

NegativeProjection5:40

Drake London serves as a comparison point for DeVonta Smith, who is described as a 'poor man's Drake London' due to his role as a high-volume receiver in a struggling offense with limited target competition.

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Drake Maye

NegativeValue22:18

The source identifies Drake Maye as a player who can be utilized as a small sweetener in trade packages.

Insight page

Jameson Williams

NegativeValue8:39

Jameson Williams is viewed as a trade asset to move in packages for upgrades. The source prefers trading him plus a piece to acquire Rashee Rice, A.J. Brown, or DK Metcalf.

Insight page

Jaylen Waddle

NegativeValue8:52

Jaylen Waddle is a trade-away candidate; the source would trade him in a heartbeat, potentially adding a piece on top to acquire A.J. Brown or packaging him to acquire Rashee Rice.

Insight page

Jordan Addison

NegativeValue13:12

The source is willing to trade Jordan Addison plus a small piece to acquire more immediate production from players like Terry McLaurin or Stefon Diggs to help a 2-3 team prioritize wins. Additionally, league mates likely do not view Addison as a high-value trade asset, often leading to rejected offers.

Insight page

Makai Lemon

NegativeUsage5:14

Mekai Lemon has shown no signs of life as a first-round draft pick, failing to produce or crack 10 fantasy points despite an uptick in snaps following DeVonta Smith's injury.

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Michael Pittman

NegativeInjury23:38

Michael Pittman Jr. has been placed on IR, which has negatively impacted the Pittsburgh wide receiver depth chart.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection7:00

The Kansas City Chiefs offense is considered one of the most prolific in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes fully back, supporting the value of players in that system.

Insight page

Rashee Rice

PositiveValue6:43

Rashee Rice is a compelling buy-low target returning from a hamstring injury in week six. His expert rank has fallen from 24 to 48, and he offers an advantage by having already completed his bye week. The source prefers Rice's outlook over players like Jameson Williams.

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Roman Wilson

NegativeInjury23:43

After being picked up following Michael Pittman Jr.'s injury, Roman Wilson broke a finger and is expected to be out for a couple of weeks.

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Samaje Perine

NegativeRole0:45

Despite outperforming Chase Brown in a recent matchup with 16 fantasy points, 14 carries, and a goal-line touchdown, Samaje Perine is not viewed as a threat to usurp the backfield role. The source notes that at 31 years old, Perine is not a superior talent to Brown.

Insight page

Stefon Diggs

NegativeProjection12:04

Stefon Diggs has not scored 10+ fantasy points since week two and is averaging 13.2 points per game as the WR20, but he is expected to return to his pre-season value as a high-end WR3.

Insight page

Terry McLaurin

NegativeProjection11:54

Terry McLaurin has been disappointing, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game as the WR28, but his long-term outlook remains that of a low-end WR2 once fully healthy in the Washington offense.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

447

0:00There are six players I think you need

0:01to send out trade offers for in fantasy

0:03football right now because brighter days

0:05are ahead. Now, I'll be honest, there's

0:07one guy we've talked about a ton already

0:09in these videos this season. His value

0:11only gets lower. And then there are

0:13four-ish guys that have actually

0:14previously been on sell high videos that

0:17now I think that things are actually

0:19changing. So, first things first, Chase

0:21Brown. Yeah, I talk about this dude

0:22every single week, right? I actually

0:24like drafting him at the beginning of

0:25the second round and so far he's been a

0:28horrible pick. And it has only gotten

0:31worse. He has had zero games with more

0:33than 20 points scored. He has had two

0:36games with fewer than 10 points scored.

0:38And this past week against the Miami

0:40Dolphins, he scores seven total points

0:42and what makes it so much worse is

0:45Samaje Perine, his backfield mate, is

0:47actually the guy you wanted. Samaje

0:49Perine dropped about 16 fantasy points.

0:52He had 14 carries. He had multiple

0:54targets out of the backfield as well.

0:56And he had the receiving touchdown that

0:58was at the goal line which obviously

1:00sucks if you have Chase Brown. But

1:02here's the deal and why I'm going to

1:04continuously go back to Chase Brown as a

1:07buy low candidate. I'll be honest with

1:09you, a trade actually just went down for

1:11Chase Brown in the Flock League, but

1:13that's besides the point here. If I'm

1:15going to go through and look at what we

1:16had from Chase Brown last season, it was

1:18a very similar story, right? Through the

1:21first seven games for Chase Brown, what

1:24you had was zero games with 15 fantasy

1:27points scored. Chase Brown through the

1:29first seven weeks last year was a

1:31running back three in fantasy. And then

1:33what happened? Weeks 8 through 18, look

1:36at the player comparison tool here on

1:38flockfantasy.com.

1:40Chase Brown was a top five running back.

1:43We can go back to 2024 and see something

1:46very similar. Through the first three

1:48weeks, Chase Brown in 2024 averaged

1:51about five fantasy points per game. And

1:53then in weeks of 4 through 17, Chase

1:56Brown was very clearly a running back

1:58one for fantasy purposes. Now, in 2024,

2:01he didn't have the workload you wanted

2:02at the beginning of the season. 2025,

2:05the offense was really bad at the

2:06beginning of the year with no Joe

2:07Burrow. 2026, I actually think he's just

2:10kind of gotten unlucky with the

2:12efficiency cuz the main thing that

2:14matters in predicting future success at

2:16the running back position in fantasy

2:18football is going to be volume, volume,

2:21volume. And ultimately, if we look at

2:24what we have had from Chase Brown so far

2:27this year, he is averaging 14.2 carries

2:30per game, and he is averaging 5.6

2:34targets per game. Now, I'm no

2:35mathematician, but that tells me you're

2:38getting almost 20 opportunities per game

2:41in one of the league's best offenses,

2:44and while yeah, he's been like a low-end

2:46RB2, high-end RB3 that you probably

2:49drafted in the second round. I think he

2:51still projects out as a borderline top

2:5412 running back. I have him at running

2:56back 11 in my rest of season ranks, and

2:59honestly, I'm going to send a message

3:01right now to the owner that traded for

3:03Chase Brown in the Flock league, and I'm

3:05going to ask him what he would add to

3:07Chase Brown um if I gave him Jonathan

3:09Taylor. Obviously, I'd prefer JT over

3:13Chase Brown, but if I can get a

3:14significant piece added on, that would

3:16be something that I personally am

3:19looking to do, and I think you should as

3:21well. Now, other ways that you can go

3:23about a Chase Brown trade would be

3:24trying to up tier, where if you were

3:26looking at a running back such as, say,

3:29De'Andre Swift, I think going from

3:31De'Andre Swift plus a small piece to get

3:34to Chase Brown maybe a loss in the short

3:36term while Calvin N'golo is injured, but

3:39in the long term once Calvin N'golo is

3:40back, I think the Chase Brown side's

3:42going to be a very clear winner. I'm not

3:44concerned about Samaje Perine at 31

3:47years old all of a sudden turning into a

3:49better running back than Brown. Now,

3:51let's move over to a player that has

3:54actually been on these sell high videos

3:57before. We talked about selling high on

4:00DeVonta Smith before the hamstring

4:02injury. Of course, I'm an idiot. There's

4:05no way in hell I would have ever been

4:06able to predict that DeVonta Smith was

4:09going to pull a hamstring. He was going

4:11to miss weeks four and five when we put

4:13him on that week three sell high video

4:15after he dropped 27 points against the

4:18Tennessee Titans. But, there were a

4:20multitude of reasons why I put him on

4:22that sell high video. The main thing was

4:24I just wanted to pivot over to Drake

4:25London with Michael Penix coming back in

4:27Atlanta. I wanted to pivot over to Nico

4:29Collins who was getting healthy at that

4:31time. But, now if we look at the

4:33rankings over time chart on

4:34flockfantasy.com, you will see that

4:37DeVonta Smith fell from being an average

4:40expert rank of 26 all the way down to

4:4339. The reports early this week are

4:46saying that DeVonta Smith is actually

4:49probably going to be back this week from

4:51the hamstring injury. And if I try to

4:54reset expectations, let's be real on a

4:56couple different accounts. The first

4:58thing is yes, this Philadelphia Eagles

5:00offense is not good, right? This is

5:03probably one of the most disappointing

5:05offenses in the NFL this season outside

5:07of the Los Angeles Chargers. But, what's

5:10actually working in the favor of DeVonta

5:12Smith is the round one draft pick that

5:14they selected with Mekai Lemon has

5:17really shown no signs of life whatsoever

5:19this season. Like I actually thought

5:21Mekai Lemon was an incredible player and

5:23I thought Lemon was all of a sudden

5:25going to be able to produce with DeVonta

5:26Smith leaving this offense. But, no

5:28Mekai Lemon did see a massive uptick in

5:30snaps which was expected with no DeVonta

5:33Smith, but he was unable to crack 10

5:35fantasy points. So, now I'm viewing

5:37DeVonta Smith in a very similar light to

5:40like he's a poor man's Drake London.

5:42He's a wide receiver that's going to be

5:44in a bad offense, but he is going to

5:46have an insane amount of target volume

5:48because he has very little target

5:50competition here in Philadelphia. A

5:52couple different trades that I think you

5:54could look at if you were going to go

5:55over for DeVonta Smith. Like for me

5:57personally, I'm sitting here with

6:00Christian Watson on my team. If I were

6:02to go through and try to put together a

6:04little trade, I would obviously need

6:07something significant in return if I

6:09were going to be giving up Christian

6:11Watson. But say I were to sell Christian

6:13Watson for DeVonta Smith. I think an

6:16offer like that is I can maybe go

6:18through and ask, "Hey, will you give me

6:20the combination of let's call it DeVonta

6:23Smith, A.J. Brown, and some FAB, right?"

6:27So, Smith here I would expect to be a

6:29high-end wide receiver two coming back

6:31from the injury. And if you can buy him

6:33as a low-end wide receiver two right

6:35now, I think that'd be a very enticing.

6:37Another wide receiver coming back from

6:39an injury is going to be Rashee Rice.

6:42So, with Rice, the first thing I want to

6:44discuss is how damn good this Kansas

6:47City Chiefs offense is. Obviously, this

6:49is a Chiefs team that had a lot of

6:51question marks surrounding them coming

6:52into the NFL this season. But as it

6:55stands today, they have a cemented

6:57themselves as one of the premier teams

7:00in the league with Patrick Mahomes being

7:02fully back. Like just going over and

7:04looking at what markets have for this

7:06Chiefs offense this week. This week, the

7:08Kansas City Chiefs have a 79% chance of

7:11beating the Los Angeles Chargers. The

7:13spread in this game's 8 and 1/2 points.

7:15And the points total right now, you're

7:18over under 26 and 1/2 points from the

7:20Chiefs, making them one of the most

7:22prolific offenses in the NFL. Now, of

7:24course, if you wanted to check out any

7:26of those markets, you can find a link to

7:28Polymarket US in the description as well

7:30as the comment section. If you sign up

7:32with promo code Flock, you are going to

7:34get $25 added to your account after you

7:36deposit your first 10, available in

7:38every state outside of Nevada. But

7:41moving over to Rice, we are in a very

7:43similar setup that you had with Devonta.

7:46This is a receiver that actually had

7:48peaked in the expert average rankings on

7:51flockfantasy.com at about 24 overall.

7:54Now, Rashee Rice is all the way down to

7:5648 in the expert average rankings. And

7:59if we go over and look at the amount of

8:01games we should be getting him through

8:02the rest of the year, reports now are

8:04saying that he will be back from this

8:07hamstring injury most likely in week

8:09six. And he's already gone through his

8:11bye week. So, if you could get an injury

8:13discount on Rice, a receiver that's in a

8:16very thin wide receiver room where

8:18people are worried about the hamstring

8:20injury, and the reality is he's one of

8:22the very few players that's already

8:23through his bye. So, you're actually

8:25probably going to get an extra game from

8:27him in comparison to whoever you trade

8:29for him. I think that's very compelling.

8:31If I were to go through and look at

8:33where he stands in the overall rankings,

8:34try to find a players that I'd be

8:36willing to swap for Rice, like going

8:39through and pulling up the receivers in

8:41the range of like Jameson Williams, I

8:43would love to sell Jameson Williams and

8:46a piece to get to Rashee Rice. I would

8:47love to sell like Buca for my team plus

8:50a piece to get to Rashee Rice. Jaylen

8:52Waddle plus a piece to get to Rice.

8:55Um yeah, I think he should be viewed as

8:57a different asset in comparison to those

8:59guys, especially knowing that you're

9:00probably going to get the extra game

9:01played since he's already through his

9:03bye week. Going over to another player

9:05coming off an injury cuz again,

9:07typically you do need to find a reason

9:09why you're going to get these discounts.

9:11And A.J. Brown, it looks like his value

9:14hasn't adjusted as fast as it should.

9:16This is a big problem that you have with

9:18injured players. We talk about it all

9:19the time. But like with A.J. Brown, if

9:22you go back to week two, there was no

9:24part of me that ever wanted anything to

9:25do to buy him, right? But every week

9:27that goes by, he should have been

9:29getting more and more valuable. However,

9:32his expert average ranking on

9:34flockfantasy.com has remained the exact

9:36same for a month. Now, reports early on

9:39are saying that A.J. Brown could

9:41potentially be back at practice this

9:43week. That's most likely not going to

9:44happen. What's most likely going to

9:46happen is you're going to get A.J. Brown

9:48added into this New England Patriots

9:50wide receiver room two-ish, three-ish

9:53weeks from now. And then if we go back

9:55to where he was being drafted before

9:57this season started, he was a round two

9:59fantasy football pick. He was being

10:01drafted ahead of the likes of Drake

10:03London, Nico Collins, George Pickens,

10:06and Chris Olave. If we go through and

10:09try to find a reasonable trade that you

10:11could get now for A.J. Brown, like right

10:13now his expert average ranking is 59.

10:16According to the average expert rankings

10:19on the site, he's back-to-back with guys

10:21like Egboeka. Like D.J. Moore is ahead

10:24of him. Give me A.J. Brown any day of

10:25the week over D.J. Moore. I would trade

10:27Jaylen Waddle in a heartbeat. Honestly,

10:29I would add something to Jaylen Waddle

10:31to get to A.J. Brown. And then also

10:33Jameson Williams is ahead of A.J. Brown

10:35as well. I'd be very interested in

10:37trading Jamo plus a piece for Brown cuz

10:39if you look at the setup that A.J.

10:41Brown's also going to have coming into

10:43this offense, there has been no wide

10:45receiver that's been able to cement

10:46himself as a consistent target earner.

10:49Like the guy that was maybe the wide

10:51receiver one here in Mack Hollins is

10:53actually on the IR now. So, A.J. Brown

10:56is another one of these players that I

10:58personally I'm going to go out there and

11:00send a few offers out of. I am probably

11:02going to try to swing from Egboeka plus

11:05a piece to get to A.J. Brown. I'll

11:07probably try to swing from Jameson

11:09Williams plus a piece to get to A.J.

11:10Brown. Now, of course with these injured

11:12guys like A.J. Brown they're going to

11:13miss a few weeks. Definitely don't go

11:15through and trade for them if you're

11:17like one and four, 0 and five. If you're

11:19one and four, 0 and five, you need to

11:21make sure you're prioritizing wins right

11:23this second. This is more so for those

11:25teams that can afford to think about the

11:27long-term upside. Now, two wide

11:29receivers that we had as sell high

11:31candidates about 3 weeks ago when it

11:34looked like Jayden Daniels was

11:35potentially going to be down for the

11:37year. Terry McLaurin was that sell high

11:39candidate. He had peaked up at about 56

11:43overall in the expert average rankings

11:45from that first sell high video as well

11:47as Stefon Diggs. And with Stefon Diggs,

11:51we had seen his value peak up at around,

11:54I want to say, 68 before that sell high

11:57video that we put out. But both

11:59receivers have been disappointing over

12:01the past few weeks, right? Like Stefon

12:04Diggs has not had a game with 10 or more

12:06fantasy points since week two this year.

12:08Terry McLaurin has yet to have a game

12:10with 20 fantasy points this season.

12:13Terry is averaging 10 and 1/2 fantasy

12:15points per game and is the wide receiver

12:1628. And Stefon Diggs is currently

12:19averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game

12:21and is the wide receiver 20. But

12:23realistically, while Jayden Daniels

12:26obviously had a horrific move at the end

12:28of the game to I don't want to say lose

12:31it, but instead of winning it, obviously

12:33mismanaged the clock and ended up

12:35getting it tied. That has no impact

12:37whatsoever on how we should project out

12:39this offense for fantasy purposes going

12:41forward. Jayden Daniels actually looked

12:43very good. Obviously, his weapons

12:45weren't there with Diggs and Terry both

12:48banged up. But if we try to project this

12:50out in the future, once we get Diggs and

12:52Terry McLaurin back into this offense,

12:54if anything, I think the expectations

12:57should be very similar to what they were

12:59before the season started where Terry

13:01McLaurin was getting drafted as a

13:02low-end wide receiver two. Stefon Diggs

13:04was being viewed at as a high-end wide

13:06receiver three. So, like if I'm going

13:07through and looking at my own fantasy

13:09team trying to figure out moves that I

13:11could potentially make to try to swing

13:13over to Terry, try to swing over to

13:15Stefon Diggs. Like I am a two and three

13:18team, right? I need to prioritize wins

13:19right now. It would probably make a lot

13:21of sense for me to try to move Jordan

13:23Tyson plus a small piece, giving up the

13:25long-term upside of Tyson, to try to get

13:28to Terry McLaurin, to try to get to

13:29Stefon Diggs. Now, obviously, good

13:31chance whoever I'm trading with in my

13:33league doesn't view Jordan Addison that

13:34way, which is why the vast majority of

13:36trade offers that get sent out don't get

13:38accepted. But, for me, as somebody who

13:40has Drake Maye, like a small little

13:42sweetener on that that I would add on

13:44would be a player like Bryce Young. Now,

13:46the last buy low candidate that I want

13:49to discuss is going to be DK Metcalf.

13:53Now, with Metcalf, he has been horrific

13:55so far this season. He is averaging 9.7

13:58fantasy points per game, which is the

14:00worst mark that we have seen in his

14:02entire NFL career. And it's the worst

14:05mark we have seen in his entire NFL

14:06career by a decent margin as well. And

14:10obviously, we've talked a lot about this

14:12Pittsburgh Steelers offense just in the

14:14waiver wire video, cuz if you go through

14:16and look at the setup that you've had,

14:18you had Michael Pittman Jr. go to the

14:20IR, then after Michael Pittman Jr. goes

14:23to the IR, everybody rushes to pick up

14:25Roman Wilson, and then what ends up

14:28happening with Roman Wilson? Oh, Roman

14:30Wilson breaks a finger. Now, he's going

14:33to be out for a couple weeks. So, the

14:34only target competition that DK Metcalf

14:37has here in Pittsburgh is going to be

14:39tight ends, Jaylen Warren, and a rookie

14:42Jeremy Bernard. And if you look at

14:44Metcalf's role, he is currently

14:45averaging 7.4 targets per game. This is

14:49actually the highest mark that he has

14:50seen since his 2023 season in Seattle.

14:54It's very comparable to what you've had

14:56over the past four years. It's just the

14:58efficiency has been really bad. 1.32

15:01yards per route run. Like, DK Metcalf

15:03does not look like a good NFL wide

15:05receiver at this point. But, I

15:07definitely think he can be startable

15:08again. This is a completely fine

15:11offense. Going through and pulling up

15:13where he's at in the expert average

15:14ranks, currently he is sitting in a

15:17range of players as low in wide receiver

15:20threes, high in wide receiver fours.

15:22Trying to figure out something that I

15:23would do with my own roster. Like if I

15:25could potentially try to find a way to

15:28swing from

15:30Jameson Williams to DK Metcalf and get

15:33an upgrade somewhere else at the same

15:35time. Maybe if I could swing from Olave

15:37to DK Metcalf and get an upgrade

15:40somewhere else at the same time, I think

15:41that'd make a lot of sense. Now, that's

15:43all I got for you. I really appreciate

15:44you and hope I was able to help you out

15:46in some way with this video. I'm going

15:47to be sending out offers for these

15:49players in my league where I see that it

15:51makes sense. I mean, I think it probably

15:54is decent for you to do the same, but

15:56again, make sure you understand if

15:58you're trading for an injured player,

15:59only do so in where you can afford to

16:01lose this week or next week. And then

16:03also, on top of that, don't go out there

16:05and overpay for these guys by any means

16:07necessary. Make sure you continue to

16:09stack value, but much love, appreciate

16:11you, and I'll see you out in the live

16:12stream later tonight.

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