0:00Fantasy football is here once you've hit submit on your lineup for week one. I'm here to help you make those decisions.
0:06Starting off with a guest here, we're going to have Jamar Chase San Puka Nikua. Now Jamar is set up in a smash
0:13spot going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This game has the highest overunder of any game in the league this week at 50 and a half points. Looking at
0:23Puka Nukua, the overunder of this game is 48 and a half. So it should be very high scoring as well. Both of these
0:29offenses are favored. Both of these wide receivers were bagged up in camp, but all signs points to them being 100% a-okay to go for week one. So, frankly,
0:38you don't need to be worried about it.
0:40You jam them. You drafted them in the first round for a reason. Going over to the A tier, guys. A man Ross St. Brown
0:47is going to flip JSN for me. Now, this Patriots games surprisingly projecting out to be pretty low scoring here, which if you look at the Lions offense, they
0:57currently project to score 28 and a half points and be the number one scoring offense in the league. And on top of
1:03this, while they are sevenpoint favorites against the New Orleans Saints, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world if they do
1:10skew a little bit more pass happy than they did last year, given the fact that they have no running back to to play
1:15alongside Jir Gibbs. And I don't think they want to be giving Jir Gibbs 35 touches a game. So St. Brown very very
1:23safe play. If we look at Jackson Smith and Jigba, it's a little bit tougher.
1:27Like the Seattle Seahawks, while they are favored over New England, they do only project to score 24 points. Now, of course, JSN's going to have such a high
1:36percentage of his team's target share every single week. I don't know why we're talking so much about this tier.
1:41You know, you start all these guys. CDL should be in a very good game environment against the Giants. They are three and a half point favorites. That
1:48game is supposed to be the third highest scoring game of the week. And then finally, finally, do we have good projections for the Minnesota Vikings?
1:57Justin Jefferson owners. We can rejoice seeing the fact that against Green Bay at home, the Vikings project to score 23 and a half points. Now, if we go back
2:07and look at what the Minnesota Vikings were doing at the end of last season, of course, with JJ McCarth, the under
2:15center, at the end of last year, they couldn't crack 23 points. Like, go through and look at this. We had week
2:2218, they scored 16. Week 17, they scored 23. Week 16, 16, 34, 31, but zero points, six points, 19 points, 17
2:32points. Like, this offense was garbage.
2:36But we finally have good projections.
2:38Not worried about the Green Bay Packers defense. Jefferson set up to absolutely smash. Going over to Chris Ave is going to be very high in our rankings this
2:48week and very high in our rankings over the next month. You have no Jordan Tyson, so the man legitimately has no
2:54target competition at all. While yes, you have to be worried about long-term injuries with like the concussions for a lav. That's not a concern week one. And
3:03again, this projects to be the second highest scoring game of the week. With the Lions being seven-point favorites, there's a damn good chance the New
3:10Orleans Saints are throwing the ball in the second half. AJ Brown here, AJ Brown rest of season. I would rather have him
3:16over Drake London. But again, this is a very, very tough matchup. We saw the New England Patriots offense really struggle against Seattle in the Super Bowl. This
3:25game is in Seattle as well. And on top of this, if you go through and if you just look at the current projections for
3:32the game, uh, New England's projected to score 20 and a half points. That's significantly lower than what we have with any other team that we've talked
3:41about so far. It's lower than the New Orleans Saints. The overunder this game's only 44 and a half. And of course, if you wanted to go through and
3:50check out the spread overunder of any of these games, we're looking at it all on polyarket US. You can pull it up
3:56whenever the hell you want. But going over to the rest of B tier, we have Nico Collins here at nine. With Nico Collins,
4:04Texans are favored by about a point. And this game should have the same amount of points scored at it, or at least that's
4:10the projection as the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. So, Nico and AJ Brown, very similar setups.
4:18They're going to be dominant wide receivers from a target share perspective. Um, these offenses aren't elite like what we are seeing with the
4:26Lions, with the Bengals. This match up against the Bills should be a very close game though where potentially the Texans do have to throw the ball more than they
4:33would like. Um, going over to George Pickkins, the Cowboys offense should be humming. And with Pickkins last year, obviously he was a borderline top five
4:41wide receiver most weeks for us. And then Drake London at 11. So London gets Tua under center. This game they are
4:48playing in Pittsburgh. You actually have the Atlanta Falcons being the only team we've talked about so far in this video projecting to score fewer than 20 points
4:57this week. So, the hope for London is that Tua surprises to the upside, but again, I know we've talked about this
5:05recently, all the reports coming out of training camp for the Atlanta Falcons was that Tua looked horrendous, but nonetheless, you're starting every
5:13single one of these wide receivers. You already know that. I shouldn't have spent a second talking about them. Now, Tia Gins is going to be at the top of S
5:20tier for us this week. Again, very similar to Jamar Chase being the number one wide receiver in fantasy for the week. The Bengals should light it up
5:29against the Buccaneers. Over under 50 and a half points, the target should be extremely concentrated where you have no tight ends. And on top of this, you have
5:38no significant wide receiver three.
5:40Devont Smith is going up against the Commanders. This is projecting out to be a lowerc scoring game similar to the Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots as
5:49we've discussed before. But why I like Smith a lot early in the season is we're not expecting Eli Sters to even really
5:57be active at the beginning of the year, let alone get on the field and with Mai Lemon. Mai Lemon dealt with a hamstring
6:03injury. As a rookie, we're going to assume that he starts a little bit slow.
6:07So, Devontto Smith should crush early.
6:09Rasheed Rice. We are going to be lower on Rasheed Rice in our rankings this week because of the tough matchup against the Denver Broncos. This is one
6:18of the best defenses in the NFL. You can tell that because the Kansas City Chiefs currently project to only score 23
6:25points, which is significantly lower than the Bengals, which is lower than Philadelphia as well. And Rice, we didn't have the best reports coming out
6:33of camp with how he looked. Keep in mind wide receiver that spent like a month in county jail in Dallas this off
6:39seasonason and he had a knee operation.
6:41So it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world if Rashi Rice started slow against the Denver Broncos, but um
6:48obviously you're starting him regardless. You took him in the third round. You are starting Z Flowers as well. Regardless, Z Flowers went
6:54absolutely nuclear in week one last season and this game projects to be pretty damn high scoring here against the Indianapolis Colts. The game is in
7:05Indie, so it has the dome and Baltimore is favored by three and a half. Going over to Lad Mani, this is the largest
7:12spread of any game this week. The Los Angeles Chargers are favored by 10 points. The Chargers project to score 28 and a half points this week, which is
7:21only behind the It's not even behind the Lions, it's tied with the Lions as the highest scoring offense. Now, the problem's going to be if the Arizona
7:29Cardinals defense is this bad, there's a damn good chance that the Chargers can just go through and run the ball in the
7:35second half. They are playing at home, but it's going to be a damn exciting game if you're a Chargers fan, which I
7:40know I'm talking to a total of three of y'all. Now, Malik Neighbors at 17. I am rocking the Neighbors jersey for this
7:47video. Let me see what the latest update is for Malik Neighbors at about 5:00 p.m. on Monday. But from my initial read
7:58is it sounds like we are going to get Neighbors playing week one, but I don't think you should expect him to be truly
8:05100%. Yeah, I don't see anything additional that's come out about Malik Neighbors. Of course, if he ends up missing, you definitely go ahead and
8:14bench him. But my plan, if you drafted him in the second round of your draft this year, if he's healthy and what is a
8:21really good matchup against the Dallas Cowboys defense, like I know this defense was invested into by this front office in the offseason. The Cowboys
8:29were like the worst defense in the NFL last season. It's such a good matchup that even a hobbled Malik Neighbors is
8:35somebody that you would need to start.
8:37Now, of course, he will be working himself up these rankings as the season goes on. I just want him to prove that
8:42he's healthy. Tedoa McMillan. Um I'm surprised to see that the Panthers project out well against the Chicago Bears. 22 and a half points as their
8:51total. The spread on this game is only two and a half. Now yes, we do have the Panthers obviously as dogs in this. But
8:58my greed on it, at least what I would have guessed coming in, would have been that this was a massive gap in
9:07projections from Carolina to Chicago.
9:09But no, 22 and a half points does have the Carolina Panthers as an average offense and Ted McMillan's going to get
9:16every single target. Now going over to Jaylen Wadd again, this should be a lowercing game. The Denver Broncos project to only score 20 points this
9:24week, which is lower than any offense that we have talked about outside of the Atlanta Falcons. So this just isn't the
9:32spot you want to be playing. Waddle, his first game ever with the Denver Broncos.
9:36It's a top matchup in KC as well. and the offensive projections look pretty damn bad. Now, I will say with that, of
9:42course, you start him. You drafted him in the third round, you drafted him in the fourth round. So, unless you're in a
9:47really shallow format, he is in your lineup, but have lowered expectations for him this year in comparison to what he will be in the long term. And then I
9:55am planning on starting a Buka myself.
9:57Let me go ahead and pull up what we had with him at practice today, but it seems like he is a-ok. okay to good to go week
10:06one he was running a route um he looks like he's going pretty damn close to 100% as well and this is Monday so he
10:15gets all week to ramp up and it's the best matchup possible against the Cincinnati Bengals again I want to remind you this game projects to
10:24be the highest scoring game in the league the Bucks are dogs so they are going to be throwing the ball a ton so I have IUA
10:31on my own team I am starting him I don't care that he was missing practice. I think the matchup's phenomenal. Like I
10:37would actually have had him up at like 12 or 13 in these rankings if he wasn't coming off an injury. Now, Devonte Adams
10:45here playing against San Francisco. Of course, if we got a nuclear bomb dropped and all of a sudden Pukanuku was suspended, Devonte Adams would be an A
10:54tier level wide receiver for us. He would be right up there with CD Lamb and Justin Jefferson. But that's not the
11:00case right now. The matchup against San Francisco looks good on paper. Should be a very high-scoring game, but when these teams travel across the world and it's
11:09week one, there is so much variance here. Now, Garrett Wilson at 22. I'm going to be very low on Garrett Wilson
11:17this week in these rankings because he plays against the Tennessee Titans in Tennessee. And this is going to be a game that you want nothing to do with.
11:27Right now, it projects to be the lowest scoring game in the NFL this week. Now, of course, he's going to get all the
11:33targets in the world here, but damn, I mean, imagine having to watch this. It would just make your eyes bleed. Jameson
11:40Williams is going to be somebody that I am playing on my fantasy team this week.
11:44I am very excited for it. Again, the Lions project to be the number one scoring offense. Um JMO was phenomenal at the end of last season and there is a
11:54chance that they skew more pass happy given the fact they have no running back too. Now Luther Burden could move up
11:59these rankings in a big time way. One thing that you are going to have to be on the lookout for is the practice
12:05reports update with Roma Dunce. Roma Dunay was not at practice on Monday. So with Rome missing practice, if this
12:16lingers to Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and he ends up missing, I would start Luther Burton over JMO, over Garrett Wilson. He would move up to being a
12:26C-tier level wide receiver for me. But the expectations as of now will be that Roma Dunce will be good to go. But
12:33obviously, we would prefer Luther Burton at this point with Burden practicing and Rome not. Christian Watson playing in Minnesota this week. Game environment
12:43looks a-ok. Okay, right. Decent projections here for the Green Bay Packers. Decent projections for the Minnesota Vikings as we discussed with
12:50Justin Jefferson. And the expectation should be you have no Josh Jacobs this week. So, I am playing Christian Watson myself. I am excited to play Christian
12:59Watson on my fantasy team because without Josh Jacobs, this is a Packers team that probably skews to be a little more passy. As we mentioned going over
13:09to DJ Moore, it's a really tough matchup going up against the Houston Texans.
13:13Again, I think these projections are extremely valuable for us to use. And right now, um, the game has an overunder of 44 and a half points. The Buffalo
13:24Bills have an implied team total of 21 a half. This just goes to show exactly how good this defense is for the Texans. as
13:35most weeks the Buffalo Bills are going to be projected as not only heavy favorites where obviously right now if we just pull this up there's a 50/50
13:44shot but also the overunder of the game is going to be much higher than like 44 and a half points. So I think this is an
13:54environment in which you have to have lowered expectations for your Buffalo Bills players because it's an elite defense they're going up against. It's
14:03the first week ever that DJ Moore is playing with Josh Allen, so I'm gonna be a little bit hesitant there. I will also
14:11be a little bit hesitant regarding Rome Adun. Now, of course, I'm going to keep these rankings up to date on fogg
14:17fantasy.com literally every single day for y'all. So, don't you worry. I mean, once we get official word that Rome's missing practice again, he's going to
14:25slide down to the bottom tier. And if he misses it again on Wednesday, he'll fall even further. But yeah, Roma, we are
14:32going to have to monitor the injury report for him. Terry McLaren, I absolutely hate the matchup going up against the Philadelphia Eagles. Right
14:40now, the Eagles are fivepoint favorites.
14:44Terry McLaren is going up against a defense that is one of the best units in the league. The Commanders offensive line is decimated and that's probably
14:54going to limit Terry McLaren's downfield opportunities. And with that being the case, to be honest with you, I kind of want to go through and fade Washington
15:05to the extent that I can. They project to only score like 0.75 more points than the freaking New York Jets this week. So Terry McLaren is in a
15:16very tough spot, very similar to DJ Moore as we've mentioned. And then Mike Evans at 29. So here's the deal with
15:23Evans. I think that the recent reports that we had today were very bullish on his long-term health and his setup for
15:31this season. Like if we go through and if we look at where we currently stand with Evans, um we had this tweet where
15:38it says, um I know I'm an older player.
15:40I have had probably over a thousand football practices in my life now. So I know what I'm doing out there. They know
15:47what they're doing. They did a good job taking care of me. None of my injuries were significant. So, if it was a game
15:52week, I wouldn't have missed any time.
15:54This is great news for Mike Evans drafters, but it is a really tough matchup going up against the Rams.
16:03Typically, the Niners are going to project be a much higher scoring offense than they do this week. Very similar to the Commanders, very similar to the
16:10Buffalo Bills. Mike Evans missed so much time throughout camp and it's the first time he's ever been in this offense. So,
16:19I would be a little hesitant to play Mike Evans if I'm going to be honest.
16:23Like, I would easily play Christian Watson over him this week, at least in my opinion. Now, let's move over to our
16:31E tier. Chris Godwin looked like he was potentially going to be set up to absolutely smash. And I want to be on
16:37the record here. If I were to shock me and Ibuka were to miss this week, Chris Godwin jumps up to being a C-tier wide
16:44receiver. But it sounds like Ibuka is going to play. Sounds like Jaylen McMillan's going to play, but very similar to what we were talking about
16:51with the game environment there for Higgins, Jamar Chase, Ibuka himself.
16:56This is just the perfect setup. You want to play against the Cincinnati Bengals if you're a wide receiver. You want the
17:01overunder, the game to be 50 and a half points. You want this to turn into a shootout because what these projections
17:07say is these projections say that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to have to throw the ball a ton. Don't be
17:12surprised if we get 50 plus dropbacks from Baker Mayfield. So, if you have Godwin and you're dealing with like a Cardell Tate, right? You took Cardell
17:21Tate in the sixth round, you drafted Chris Godwin in the eighth round, I would go ahead. I would play Godwin over
17:26the rookie in this instance, at least for week one. Going over to Brian Thomas. Heavy favorites, heavy heavy favorites over the Cleveland Browns.
17:36Right now, the Jags are nine-point favorites here. Obviously, the Browns aren't going to be able to move the ball down the field. That tells me you don't
17:44have the upside for this to turn into a full-blown shootout. We're gonna throw Parker Washington here as well, right?
17:49Brian Thomas, Parker Washington, they're handinand for me. I think Washington has the higher floor. Thomas has the higher ceiling, but most people would tell you
18:00to go Washington over Thomas. I just want to make sure you understand that.
18:04So, with Marvin Harrison, you can take this one of two ways. You can say, "Oh my gosh, the Arizona Cardinals, they are
18:1210-point dogs. They're going to have to go into garbage time and they're going to have to throw the ball over and over
18:17and over again." And if Jeremiah Love misses where all of a sudden their only running back Alier, I'll probably lean in that direction and I'll probably move
18:25Marvin Harrison further up these ranks.
18:28But the other side of the coin of that is the Cardinals only project to score 18 and a half points this week.
18:3718 and a half. That's the worst offense that we've talked about today. And I think the worst offense that we have
18:44outside of maybe like the Cleveland Browns in projections.
18:48Now, DK Metaf favored over the Atlanta Falcons. Metaf sounds like he's good to go. Um high floor wide receiver that's shown us a very low ceiling over the
18:59past few years. Now, moving over to the F tier, we are going to have Quinton Johnston. Similar to what we are talking
19:05about with Lad Mankey, this is an offense that projects to score a ton of points, but they are 10-point favorites.
19:11So, I'm gonna assume this is a an Amari and Hampton game. When I show you my running back rankings this week, be
19:18prepared to be shocked at how high I have Amari and Hampton because I would expect the Chargers to just be able to
19:25run the ball over and over and over again. Now, with Jordan Addison, again, very similar to what we discussed with Justin Jefferson. I am so happy to
19:34finally see the projections like the Minnesota Vikings to say the Vikings are going to be a good offense. Now, of course, are they going to be elite? Are
19:43they going to be up there with the Los Angeles Rams, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Detroit Lions? No. But they're going to be acceptable. They're going to be
19:51usable. And you don't need to worry about this Green Bay Packers matchup for week one. Michael Pitman Jr. at 37. Um,
19:58with Pitman, the matchup against Atlanta, not scary. It is his first week ever with the team. I would say you're probably going to get a solid 12point
20:08outing, 11 point outing. I don't know what the true ceiling is, though.
20:12Courtland Sutton, very similar to what we discussed with Jaylen Wadd. This isn't the spot you want to play him.
20:18This is a really tough matchup for Sutton. Now, Steon Diggs at 39 with Diggs.
20:24Very tough matchup against Philadelphia.
20:26Now, maybe if this Philly defense can just dominate the offensive line, then Jaden Daniels has to do a lot of quick
20:34reads, a lot of checkdowns to digs close to the line of scrimmage as composed to Terry McLaren maybe operating deeper downfield.
20:43But as it stands right this second, I don't love the Diggs play. I don't love the Cardell tape play either. Like I
20:51have Wel Robinson on my own fantasy team. I would really hope that week one you're not having to start any of these
20:56F-tier wide receivers. Right? If it's week one and you don't have any by-weeks that we're dealing with, I hope you don't have to go this far down. I really
21:04like Carnell Tate in the long run. But my stance always with rookies will be prove it to me before we believe it. Go
21:15out there, break out, and I will start you the next week. I am fine benching Cardell Tate for the first three weeks of this year as he scores
21:25seven points, nine points, 11 points, and then in week four, if he's on my bench and he drops 16, well, cool. I
21:32know to play him in week five. But I would not trust the rookies in week one until you see their roles, especially if
21:38it's a bad offense like the Tennessee Titans. Now, going over to Josh DS. Josh DS could rise up these rankings because
21:47again, pretty damn good game environment here where you're going up against the Baltimore Ravens. But what we need to wait to see before we move Josh DS up
21:55the ranks is I officially need Alec Pierce to be ruled out. So this is kind of a placeholder ranking for Josh DS. I
22:02could honestly see him going up to like the wide receiver 35 if you were to have no Alec Pierce. Michael Wilson at 43.
22:10I'm rooting for Wilson. I mean, my personal bias, I like him more than Marvin Harrison, but again, just garbage offense. Matthew Golden and Jaden Reed.
22:20I think we really need to see the usage of these two wide receivers week one. It is a tough matchup against the Minnesota
22:27Vikings in Minnesota, but I think you need to see the amount of routes that these guys run, the amount of snaps that
22:34Jaden Reed's even on the field, and then maybe you can feel confident starting one of them in weeks two, three, or
22:39four. But I want to see the roles of them. Debo Samuel could rise up these rankings if you were to have Mike Evans
22:46ruled out. But I'm going to rank Debo ahead of Dejon Stribbling for early season. Very similar to what we were talking about with Carnell Tate. With
22:54Deshawn Stribbling, he is on my bench.
22:56You are in prove it mode. Same thing with Mai Lemon, right? All of these rookie wide receivers, it is prove it
23:03mode. Once you do it, then you can go ahead and get started. Alec Pierce obviously would be much higher if we
23:09knew that he was healthy, but I am just kind of throwing Alec Pierce here as a placeholder until we have his injury
23:14update. And then Xavier Worthy at 50. I have Xavier Worthy on my team. I probably shouldn't have drafted him. And I'm definitely not starting week one
23:23against the Denver Broncos when it's a horrible matchup. But I think that's all I got for this video. I am so damn
23:29excited for the season to be here. We actually have week-toeek projections we can be looking at now rather than just trying to extrapolate what happened last
23:38season to this one. So, super pumped.
23:41We're going to get our running back rankings out tomorrow. I'll be live streaming answering your fantasy football questions every single night
23:47until Christmas how I do every year. But much love, ladies and gentlemen. I appreciate you and hope I get to see you
23:53out in the live stream later