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6 Running Backs I'm Betting Against

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
No date
Published
24
Player insights
24
Players mentioned
Topics
Breece HallBucky IrvingCam AkersChristian WatsonD.J. MooreD'Andre SwiftDerrick HenryGeorge PickensJ.K. DobbinsJadarian PriceJavonte WilliamsJaylen WarrenJeremiyah LoveJustin Jefferson
Player analysis

Player insights

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Breece Hall

PositiveValue9:25

Breece Hall is a superior draft target compared to Javonte Williams due to his superior athleticism and receiving upside; he is expected to have more receptions out of the backfield and higher big-play potential.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeRole20:22

Bucky Irving is a questionable draft pick due to concerns about his frame holding up to a full workload and a crowded backfield; he faces being squeezed out of passing downs by Kenneth Gainwell and goal-line work by Sean Tucker.

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Cam Akers

NegativeBust16:48

Cam Akers is a player to avoid in the fourth round due to injury concerns and the team's signing of Najee Harris, which threatens his goal-line and short-area workload.

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Christian Watson

PositiveValue25:17

Christian Watson is ranked higher than Jaylen Warren, and selecting Warren over him is considered a poor draft decision.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveValue25:16

DJ Moore is ranked significantly higher than Jaylen Warren, with the speaker advising against taking Warren over him in drafts.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveValue20:04

D'Andre Swift is preferred over other running backs in his tier, such as Cam Akers, due to the injury situation in Chicago and the addition of Najee Harris to the Giants' backfield.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveValue0:46

The speaker prefers Kenneth Walker over Derrick Henry in fantasy rankings, despite advising against drafting Walker.

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George Pickens

PositiveValue15:54

George Pickens is recommended as a preferred draft target over Javonte Williams, with Kenneth Walker noting he was drafted after Williams in their league.

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J.K. Dobbins

NegativeBust26:55

JK Dobbins is a major bust risk due to an extensive injury history, averaging only 7-8 games per season. His fantasy ceiling has historically been capped at low-end RB2 status.

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Jadarian Price

NegativeDepth Chart5:14

The Seattle Seahawks' decision to invest a first-round pick in Jadarian Price signals a significant shift in the team's long-term roster strategy at the running back position.

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Javonte Williams

PositiveProjection7:45

Javonte Williams is a mid-third round ADP target (RB16) who is viewed as touchdown-or-bust due to a lack of big-play ability and inefficient receiving usage (averaging 8 yards per game on 3.2 targets). He lost significant explosiveness in the second half of last season, failing to record a 20+ fantasy point game after Week 5, leading to expectations that his receiving role will be scaled back.

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Jaylen Warren

NegativeValue25:08

Jaylen Warren is considered a poor value in the sixth round due to a low floor and ceiling. Selecting him over wide receivers like DJ Moore or Christian Watson is labeled a 'garbage pick.' Additionally, Rico Dowdle's strong camp reports suggest he could push Warren for the starting job.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveValue9:24

Jeremiah Love is highlighted as a more athletic and superior receiving back compared to Javonte Williams, offering higher upside for receptions out of the backfield and explosive big plays.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveValue5:56

Justin Jefferson is considered an elite fantasy asset, having recorded five consecutive seasons with over 17 fantasy points per game. Trading for him is described as an absolute no-brainer, and the speaker successfully acquired him in a trade involving Kenneth Walker.

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Kenneth Gainwell

PositiveUsage22:20

The team invested significantly in Kenneth Gainwell with a $10 million contract, signaling he will have a consistent weekly role, likely as a receiving back on passing downs.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeBust0:02

Kenneth Walker is a recommended fade in fantasy drafts due to recurring injury history and a declining workload, which dropped from 15.2 to 13.0 carries per game over four seasons. Despite being ranked as RB10 for the upcoming season with a projected volume of 15-16 carries and 2-3 targets per game, he lacks 17+ fantasy point per game upside and is considered a risky asset. He finished as RB29 last season and is viewed as a player to sell rather than draft, especially given concerns about his ability to handle a full three-down role.

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Najee Harris

NegativeUsage17:28

Najee Harris is viewed as a threat to Cam Akers' workload, specifically regarding short-area and goal-line touches, despite Kenneth Walker's low opinion of his talent level.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection1:48

Despite public pessimism, Patrick Mahomes remains a high-priority target for the speaker, who has drafted him frequently in best-ball formats. The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to remain a top-10 offensive unit, and Mahomes is expected to be fully prepared for Week 1.

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Rachaad White

NegativeDepth Chart22:20

Rachaad White departed the team during the offseason, signing a contract with Washington valued at approximately $1.5 million.

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Rico Dowdle

PositiveDepth Chart25:40

Rico Dowdle has received phenomenal camp reports and possesses the ability to challenge Jaylen Warren for the starting running back role in Pittsburgh.

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RJ Harvey

NegativeDepth Chart27:38

RJ Harvey is positioned as a receiving back within the Denver backfield, where he competes for touches alongside other rostered options.

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Sean Tucker

NegativeRole23:42

Sean Tucker is expected to compete for goal-line carries, which serves as a negative factor for Bucky Irving's fantasy outlook.

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Travis Etienne

PositiveValue16:42

Travis Etienne is recommended as a target for managers looking for a running back in the fourth round.

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Zach Charbonnet

NegativeUsage4:55

Zach Charbonnet's injury during the NFL playoffs forced the Seattle Seahawks to rely on Kenneth Walker as the primary feature back, highlighting the team's limited depth options at the time.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

156
0:00I have six running backs that I'm avoiding in fantasy drafts this year.
0:02And if you took them, I honestly may look at even selling them at this point, just like I did with Kenneth Walker in
0:08the Flock League. Now, yes, it is very hypocritical for me to go through and take Kenneth Walker with my second round
0:17pick in the Flock League and then immediately turn around and tell you that this is somebody that you should be avoiding. Now, to be fair, once I
0:25realized I was going to have to take Kenneth Walker, I absolutely raged. SEE, SEAN BUCKLEY, >> THAT'S RIGHT. That's right.
0:34>> Smashed my clipboard on the ground out of frustration. Went to the stage and immediately announced that he was on the
0:40trade block because while I knew that for that draft strategy, I needed to take a running back there. And I do
0:46prefer Kenneth Walker over Derk Henry.
0:48At the same time, I would have way rather had Saquon Barkley, Amari Hampton, Devon Achan, Chase Brown. Now, I completely understand the bull case
0:59for Kenneth Walker, right? I am somebody that actually thinks the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be a good football team this year. Like I know a lot of
1:08people are pessimistic about Patrick Mahomes, but I made him one of my most drafted quarterbacks in basketball drafts and I think Mahomes going to be
1:15good to go week one. I think this Kansas City Chiefs offense is going to be a top 10 offensive unit in the NFL and can
1:22surprise with Super Bowl expectations even though I know at this point a lot of people just want to pencil them in to
1:28be bad because that's what happened last season. But if we do look at projections and see how the Chiefs offense projects
1:36this year in comparison to last season, what we don't want to do is we do not want to look at the Kansas City Chiefs
1:44offense last season cuz Kenneth Walker wasn't playing with the Kansas City Chiefs. What we need to be doing instead is we need to go over and look at the
1:52Seattle Seahawks offense last season.
1:54And the Seahawks last year were at the very top of the NFL in points scored per game. They averaged 28.4 points scored per game, which was more
2:05than everybody but the Los Angeles Rams.
2:08They were the second best offense in the league last year. And what did that lead to with Kenneth Walker? Oh, Kenneth
2:14Walker was a running back three in fantasy. And while yes, I expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be a good offense
2:21this year, sports books right now have them scoring 24.1 points per game, which obviously is almost 4 and a half points per game
2:31fewer than the offense Kenneth Walker was in last season. And while I understand the thought process of a lot of people coming through and saying,
2:37"Oh, they're going to feature Kenneth Walker in a way that Seattle didn't. Oh, they're going to go through and finally give Kenneth Walker the role that he
2:45deserves." I want to go back and look at what happened in Seattle to make them decide, you know what, let's limit the
2:52Kenneth Walker usage. Let's limit him until the NFL playoffs when Zack Sharbon went down and we had no other option but
3:00to use him as our feature back. The other thing that the Seattle Seahawks decided to do is instead of just paying
3:06the guy that won Super Bowl MVP for them to stay inside their same building, they went, "You know what? We're better off
3:14not only using the money elsewhere, but also investing a firstround pick into Jadarian Price. Do I think the Seattle Seahawks did this because Kenneth Walker
3:24is not a talented player that doesn't create big explosive plays? No. Of course, Walker creates these explosive plays. Walker is a phenomenal talent at
3:33the running back position. But what I am potentially worried about is their viewpoint on Kenneth Walker not being able to handle a three-own workload.
3:42Now, going through and looking at what they decided to do with Kenneth Walker through his four-year NFL career, year one, his rookie season, they decided to
3:51give him 15.2 carries per game. Now, what happened? Oh, Kenneth Walker in that year. Got banged up, ended up missing a game near the end of the
4:01season. Not the end of the world, right?
4:02But he did show signs of dealing with nagging injuries. So, they decided to lower that 15.2 two carries per game in
4:10year two down to 14.6. And in that 2023 season, what happened? Oh, Kenneth Walker got banged up yet again with injuries near the end of the year. And
4:21then the following season, what did the Seattle Seahawks decide to do? They went, "Oh, okay. Well, let's lower his workload even further down to 13.9
4:30carries per game, lowering it for a third straight season." And what happened? Kenneth Walker missed multiple stretches that year, both at the
4:39beginning of the season and the end of the season. And then what happened that final year in 2025, the Seattle Seahawks
4:46went, let's lower him all the way down to 13 carries per game. And this led to Kenneth Walker in the second best
4:54offense in the league, finishing as the running back 29 with 11.2 fantasy points per game. Now, am I ranking Kenneth Walker as the running back 29 in fantasy
5:06this year? Or even worse than that, because now he's going to a worse offense. No, of course I'm not. Of course, I understand, oh, Zack Sherman's
5:13gone. He's going over to Kansas City.
5:16The offense is going to be much worse than what he was in last season, but still, he's going to see more work.
5:20Maybe he gets back up to 15 16 carries per game, two to three targets out of the backfield per game. Explosive
5:27running back. So, I'm not ranking him as a running back three like he finished last season. Instead, I moved him up my
5:33rankings a considerable bit. I moved him to the running back 10. Instead of him being a running back three, I'm expecting him to be a low-end running
5:42back one. But what I have the problem with with Kenneth Walker is I see people pushing him up to being a late round
5:49one, early round two pick. I see people in the comment section going through and saying, "Oh, Mason trading Kenneth Walker for Justin Jefferson. wasn't that
5:58good of a trade. No, don't get me wrong.
6:00We compare Kenneth Walker to a player like Justin Jefferson, which if you could trade Walker for Jedi, it's an absolute no-brainer where Justin
6:07Jefferson's had five seasons of over 17 fantasy points per game, where Kenneth Walker has never hit 17 points per game before. It's an absolute smash. So, I
6:17think Walker should be viewed as a high-end running back, too, where if he's the second running back that you draft, that's great. If you can get him
6:24in the middle to the end of the second round, I applaud you. I think there's upside with that pick. But if you're
6:30ranking Kenneth Walker as a late round one fantasy pick, despite him going to a worse offense, and finishing as a running back three last year and never
6:39touching 17 fantasy points per game, showing the injury history, uh the coaching staff he was previously with, limiting his opportunities, the front
6:47office he was previously with, letting him walk to Kansas City. Um, I think there were too many red flags to price
6:53him as that late round one guy. Now, whenever I made that trade where I sent Kenneth Walker for Justin Jefferson, the
7:00number one thing that I used was the flockfantasy.com trade calculator. I highly encourage you before you make any trades this season, make sure you plug
7:09it into the calculator. It's going to help you throughout the entire season.
7:12If you got the season pass, you're also going to get those updated weekly and rest of season rankings every single day
7:18until the end of the year. And if you don't already have the season pass, it's not too late. You can get all of that
7:24plus the custom draft sheets for only $34 on flockfantasy.com or the Flock Fantasy app. The link is in the description as well as the comment
7:33section. Use code flock when you sign up and you're going to get free start and trade questions that you can ask me in
7:38the live streams and I'm live streaming every single day until Christmas. Now, let's move over to our second running back and let's talk about Javvante
7:45Williams. So, Javvante Williams right now as an ADP of a mid third round pick across ESPN, Yahoo, and Sleeper Leagues.
7:54And for me, if I am looking at Javvante in that range, I'll be honest, I don't think it's a horrible pick by any means.
8:00Like, if you compare him to the other running backs, I personally have Javvante Williams ranked at about running back 16, which isn't that far in
8:08comparison to where the other guys on the site have him. Most people on flockfantasy.com have him anywhere from running back 15 to running back 16 in
8:17that tight range. But for me, I look at Javvante as a running back that does have a cap ceiling where he did lose a
8:24considerable amount of juice in the second half of last year. While yes, he was a three-own running back and he was
8:30the only player to touch the ball for the Dallas Cowboys last season. After week five, he had zero games with 20 or
8:37more fantasy points. Yes, zero games with 20 or more fantasy points. He did not show the ability to create big plays. And on top of this, while he was
8:48targeted out of the backfield, he did nothing with those targets. He had 3.2 targets per game, leading to only eight receiving yards per game. So, for me, I
8:58look at this and my baseline expectation would be they're probably scaling back his receiving usage, right? You cannot be that inefficient of a wide receiver
9:08and be expected to have a large receiving role the following season.
9:11Then we add on the fact that we just simply didn't see the big play upside with Javvante Williams last year. So
9:17Javvante Williams in my mind is going to be close to a touchdown or bust running back. And if you were taking him in the
9:24middle of the third round ahead of guys like Jeremiah Love, Bree Hall, Kairen Williams, I just wouldn't do it cuz Jeremiah Love, Bree Hall, I think that
9:33they are the more athletic backs, better receiving backs where I think they'll have more receptions out of the backfield and upside for those big
9:40plays. And Kron Williams is in a much better offense where I think you're going to be seeing way more touchdowns scored for the Rams than what you would
9:48have for the Cowboys. Now, for me, what I would probably do if those other running backs were off the board, I
9:54would instead look at a wide receiver like George Pickkins actually got drafted after Javvante Williams in the Flock League. And I would have rather
10:02just seen George Pickins off the board and then you take a running back in round four like Travis ETN. But the
10:08running back I would not take in round four is going to be Cam Scaboo. And let me just talk about this one second. And
10:13I know it seems like I am flipping on Cam Scataboo. And I know people are going to be upset with this because this
10:19is a running back that I drafted a lot this off seasonason. In all those best drafts in June and July, I was going
10:25through with rosecoled glasses thinking Scott's going to be good to go week one.
10:30He's the best pick on the board in the fourth round. And then we got a nasty quote coming out of the New York Giants
10:35coaching staff. John Harbaugh told us word for word that Cam Scataboo is not 100%. And Cam Scataboo himself would tell you that he's not 100%. Which maybe
10:45that's just coach speak, right? Maybe we don't need to look too far into that.
10:48But then the same day when they sign Naji Harris, the alarm should start going off. Now, I want to be very clear
10:56here. Cam Scataboo is 1,000 times more talented than Naji Harris at this point in their respective careers. if they were both fully healthy. Cam Scataboo
11:06runs laps around Naji Harris. Naji Harris is not a good NFL running back.
11:13You know that. I know that. Your mom knows it. Everybody knows it. But what that is not going to stop is that is not
11:20going to stop this New York Giants coaching staff if they don't view Cam Scataboo at 100%. From giving Naji Harris the short area touches. If they
11:30are first and goal on the 2yd line, are we positive Cam Scataboo is going to be the running back in the backfield? Are
11:36we positive that's not going to be Naji Harris? Possibly the New York Giants coaching staff, they come through and they go, "Ah, you know what? Um,
11:44Scataboo coming off a pretty significant injury, young running back that we have on his rookie deal. Why don't we keep him fresh? Why don't we make sure he
11:50stays healthy? Why don't we split the backfield with Naji Harris? That would be my concern here." Now, of course, I'm never going to say that Scat doesn't
11:58have upside. I'm still ranking him as a top 24 running back. He's still in the same exact tier of guys for me as
12:04DeAndre Swift, David McGomery, Quinn Shawn, Bucky, Jadarian Price, Beel Tutin. The only difference is now I would rather have DeAndre Swift given
12:13the fact that you have Kal Manungai injured in Chicago and Naji Harris added to the Giants. Now moving over to another running back in this tier that I
12:22do think is a little bit more questionable of a pick than he used to be and that is going to be Bucky Irving.
12:28So with Bucky, the concern is he is getting squeezed for touches on both ends of the spectrum. Bucky Irving coming into the NFL wasn't that highly
12:37regarded as a prospect. He was a little bit smaller. He wasn't an elite athlete, but what happened was his rookie season,
12:44he came out and he was so efficient and he was so good that they just continuously ramped him up to the end of
12:52the season where they had no other choice but to utilize him as not only their starter, but almost as their featured down running back, right? Then
13:01going into his second season, we all kind of forget about the size concerns cuz we knew when he was a rookie, hey,
13:07this guy may not have a frame to hold up to a three- down workload. He ends up getting drafted at the beginning of
13:12second rounds of fantasy football drafts. And what ends up happening, they try to give him a full workload. His body breaks down. Not only is it the
13:20shoulder injury, but on top of it, it's the foot injury as well. And obviously, injuries can happen to any player. I'm
13:28never going to come through and say you're not allowed to draft a player that gets injured. But what we have to
13:32do is we have to look at the team's actions in the off season to give an indication of what they're maybe
13:38expecting to do the following year.
13:40First, they pay Kenneth Gainwell a considerable amount of money. Like, yes, they let Rashad White walk, but Rashad White got paid like 1.5 million to go to
13:50Washington. He could have easily stayed in Tampa for 2 million, but this team decided to give about $10 million to Kenneth Gainwell. They dropped a bag on
13:59Gainwell indicating that he is going to have a role weekly. Now, most likely knowing the Kenneth Gainwell profile, that role is going to be on passing
14:06downs and that role is going to be as a receiving running back because that's what we saw for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
14:10Keep in mind, Jaylen Warren last year was a capable receiving back, but that didn't stop Gainwell from getting on the field and taking those targets. So, I'm
14:18afraid Buckyy's going to get squeezed from the passing down scenarios with Gainwell and Bucky is going to be getting squeezed with Shawn Tucker at
14:26the goal line. At least that's what we saw last season. And ultimately, while Bucky may be the most talented running back in this backfield and I am
14:34definitely going to have him at the top of my rankings out of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backs, I'm a little bit
14:40concerned about the similar setup as Cam Scataboo. And then a running back coming off a serious injury or two going into a
14:47year where maybe the coaching staff decides these newer running backs that we have coming into the backfield that we brought in for a reason, we can
14:54utilize them to keep our main starter and our main guy healthy. And I don't know if Bucky sees the same workload
15:00that he had at the end of his rookie season. So for me, I would rather have McGomery. I'd rather have Judkins. I'd
15:04rather have Swift in this range. Now moving over to our Jaylen Warren call.
15:08Jaylen Borne, it's very price dependent.
15:10like he went at the 601 in the flock league. If you have to take Jaylen Warren over any of these receivers, DJ
15:17Moore, Christian Watson, it is a garbage pick. Any of those round five wide receivers in that tier, you cannot consider Jaylen Warren over because
15:26Jaylen Warren has a low floor and a low ceiling at the same time. We saw Jaylen Warren last season finishes the running
15:32back 19 with 13 and a half fantasy points per game. And I don't necessarily see why we should expect that to improve
15:40going into the following year knowing that this running back room just saw the addition of Rico Dowel. And while Kenneth Gainwell never really pushed
15:47Jaylen Warren to be the starting running back, the Steelers actually thought that was going to be Caleb Johnson. Dowel does have the ability to push Warren to
15:55be the starter. And Dowel has had phenomenal reports coming out of Pittsburgh Steelers camp pretty much all offseason. So I would be concerned if
16:02you were taking Jaylen Warren at the beginning of the sixth. I think that Rico Dattle in the Flock League draft was a significantly better value. I
16:10would look for Warren at the end of the sixth, the beginning of the seventh, and then the last running back that I can't
16:15ever bring myself to take. If you were playing in a full PPR format, why would you ever draft JK Dobbins? Seriously, JK
16:23Dobbins has averaged about seven games played, eight games played throughout his entire NFL career per season. This dude is the most injuryp-prone running
16:31back in the entire league. Now, we also look at the fact that he is severely capped with his ceiling. The best finish
16:40we have ever seen from JK Dobbins from a points per game perspective, right? I'm not going to be going through and
16:45looking at total season finishes because he never finishes the year, right?
16:49That's not fair to him. But from a points per game perspective, the best mark he's ever had is 14.75, finishing as a low-end running back,
16:58too. Now, you have RJ Harvey, the receiving back in Denver. Jonah Coleman, who's getting all the buzz in Denver.
17:05So, Dobbins at best is a lowended running back, too. Again, at best and at worst, he's going to get injured in week
17:14six. So, I don't see the upside case with Dobbins. Even if RJ Harvey were to go down, Dobbins still isn't going to be
17:20a full-blown three down back because he doesn't catch the ball out of the back field. Last season, he had 3.7 yards per
17:27game as a receiver. Literally nothing.
17:29But, I think that's all I got for you.
17:31Again, I know maybe you drafted these guys, I apologize. I drafted one of them as well with Kenneth Walker. I traded
17:36him over for Justin Jefferson. But if you want to get help with the trade calculator, with the updated rankings every single day as we get news, it's
17:44all with the flockfantasy.com. $34 season pass. Link is in the description.
17:49It's in the comment section. Use code flock when you sign up. And you're also going to get free start and trade
17:54questions you can ask me in the live streams. And I'm live streaming every single day until Christmas answering your fantasy questions. But much love,
18:00ladies and gentlemen.

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