0:00When I build a fantasy team, I really like taking in accommodation of really safe assets that we can build our team
0:07around combined with some maybe risky high-upside pieces in the middle to late rounds. This is what's led to me actually having the best record in the
0:15flock league over the past two years, earning a buy into the playoffs both seasons as well. And what I want to
0:21cover in this video will be the safest pick that you can make in every round of your fantasy draft in 2026. And I feel
0:28like round one, there is nobody better to talk about than Amon-Ra St. Brown. Of course, you can look at Gibbs, you can
0:35look at Bijan, and they're incredibly safe. But, you're only able to take those two players if you have a first two pick. St. Brown, on the other hand,
0:42he goes at pick eight on Sleeper, eight ESPN, eight Yahoo, seven on Underdog, eight CBS. And on flockfantasy.com, he has an average ranking of seven. So,
0:52this is a mid-round one selection. And the safeness with Amon-Ra St. Brown can't be understated for a multitude of reasons. One, I already did the
1:00historical research going through and looking at the bust rates for top drafted wide receivers versus running backs over the past five seasons. Wide
1:09receivers, on average, hit at a higher rate in the early rounds, and they get injured less often. Now, of course, last
1:16year that didn't hold true. Last year was an outlier. But, nonetheless, I really think if you wanted to play it safe, wide receiver in round one, you're
1:24not going to miss very often. And then with Amon-Ra St. Brown's durability, obviously, he's been nicked up in his NFL career. He's had some scrapes, he's
1:32had some boo-boos. And what does he do?
1:35Oh, he gets his butt out there, and he plays through it. It frankly doesn't matter. Obviously, if he tears his ACL,
1:41he's going to have to sit out. But, any minor injury that Amon-Ra St. Brown has suffered so far through his career, he
1:47has managed to play through it to the extent where he's played five seasons, and he's played at least 16 games every
1:55year of his NFL career. And then if we actually look at what the production has been like over the past four seasons,
2:01he's been a top 10 wide receiver in points per game. Over the past three years, he's been a top five wide
2:07receiver in points per game. And if you're looking at total fantasy points over the past three years, he's been in the top three every single season. Now,
2:15if we look at how the situation's changing in Detroit year over year, it's the same coaching staff, it's the same quarterback play, it's the same target
2:24competition. Everything's the same for Amon-Ra St. Brown, which is why I think you have to say that he is the safest
2:30pick in round one. Going over to round two, all of a sudden a lot of these guys begin to pop up with some red flags,
2:36right? Like round two, we can look at Devon Achane. Um yes, being an absolute stud through the first three years, but
2:43he's changed his coaching staff and quarterback play year over year, so there is some risk. Saquon Barkley's older, he fell flat last season, change
2:51with the offensive coordinator, there's some risk. Drake London possible quarterback change, there's some risk.
2:57Zamir White and Hampton hasn't done it before, there inherently is some risk.
3:01However, Chase Brown, his situation remains pretty much the same year over year. And again, what we actually did recently is we headed over to
3:11flockfantasy.com, we pulled up the player comparison, we threw Chase Brown in there and looked at the games in which he's managed to play
3:19with and without Joe Burrow at least this past season. And in the games in which Joe Burrow played with Chase Brown, he averaged 19.4 points per game.
3:29He was the running back three in fantasy points. And at the same time, we go through the checklist. It's the same
3:36coaching staff. On top of this, it's the same quarterback play. And with Chase Brown, very similar to Amon-Ra, he's in the prime of his career. He's 26 years
3:46old. He hasn't hit age 27, 28, 29, 30, where we know the bust rate for those running backs begins to be elevated. So,
3:53I think Chase Brown is an incredibly safe pick. Like if you wanted to have the most stable first two rounds of your
3:59draft, you would go with the Amon-Ra Chase Brown. It'd be something that I would be very excited to get in the
4:04Flock League, especially knowing that's a full PPR double flex format. Now, of course, I want you to understand if you're playing in different league
4:12settings, you should be making the adjustments where if you're only in a single flex league, push up those quarterbacks and elite tight ends up a
4:20bit. If you're playing in a double flex league, then all of a sudden the skill positional depth's going to matter a
4:24little bit more and also non-PPR push up the running backs, etc. etc. etc. But, this is why we've actually built out
4:31over 70 custom draft sheets available for you on flockfantasy.com. They'll be tailored to your exact draft platform with your exact league settings and on
4:42top of that, you'll get real-time draft assistance that you're able to use. And with the $34 flockfantasy.com season pass, you'll get access to the trade
4:50calculator during the year, weekly rankings during the season, rest of season rankings updated pretty much every day all year round. Not only am I
4:57on the site, but pretty much all the favorite creators you watch on YouTube.
5:00And if you sign up to flockfantasy.com with code flock, you're actually going to be able to ask me free start/sit and
5:06trade questions during the season and I'm going to be live streaming every single night until Christmas answering your questions. Now, let's move over to
5:13round three. I don't want to say this is the highest ceiling pick. Obviously, we'll make a different video for the highest ceiling players in every round,
5:21but the safest pick is Josh Allen. It's very clear, very similar to Amon-Ra.
5:26Josh Allen plays through absolutely everything. It doesn't matter if he has a shoulder injury, elbow injury, knee.
5:31He is going to be out there. He is going to suit up for the Buffalo Bills. He has had five straight seasons of 17 games
5:37played. I mean, if we go beyond that, he played 16 games in 2020, 16 games in 2019. So, the man simply doesn't miss
5:45time. And very similar to Amon-Ra as well, he has been a top three quarterback in points per game every single season since 2020. That is six
5:55years straight. While yes, the coaching staff has changed a little bit year over year, it's still the offensive coordinator that's just now taking over
6:04head coach responsibilities. So, I'd expect really not much to change in Buffalo. While at the same time, you actually do add in an additional weapon
6:12with DJ Moore. So, Josh Allen, I think you have to say that he is the safest round three pick. Now, where I would
6:18target Josh Allen in the third round is if I was playing in a non-PPR format, all of a sudden quarterbacks become more
6:24important because wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs are inherently going to be scoring less. So, quarterbacks going to make up a higher
6:30percentage of your starting lineup output. And also, if you're playing in a single flex league as opposed to a double flex format, there are because
6:37the skill personnel depth's going to matter a little bit less, you can afford to go out there and get yourself that
6:41elite QB. So, those would be the formats I'm targeting Josh Allen in the third.
6:45Now, of course, as we go over and as we look at those deeper leagues like the flock league, I think Allen may slide to
6:52the beginning of the fourth. Now, the safest fourth-round pick in my mind is going to be T-Mac, Tetero McMillan, Tet McMillan, whatever you want to call him.
7:01I absolutely love this dude. In my opinion, I think this is very similar to drafting Drake London before he became Drake London. Because with McMillan, he
7:11was an absolute stud in college. Let me go ahead and pull up his collegiate statistics because I mean, I am sure
7:19that y'all remember, but this is a wide receiver that went not only round one in the NFL draft, but at the very top of
7:26round one with the eighth overall pick to the Carolina Panthers. And in his junior season at Arizona, he had 1,300 receiving yards, which is very
7:35impressive, right? 1,300 receiving yards is great. But what if I told you the next leading wide receiver on this team, had 320.
7:44Yes.
7:45Terron McMillan had 1,300. The wide receiver two had 300. The man was dominant to a completely different level. Then you go and look at what he
7:55did in his rookie season after being a top 10 NFL draft pick, the man had a 25% team target share. He was efficient as
8:04well, 1.88 yards per route run. He finishes the wide receiver 24. And if we you look at the ADP consensus page on
8:12flockfantasy.com, right now he's getting drafted as the wide receiver 19. So, people are expecting him to only be slightly better than he was. He is
8:21currently a late third-round pick in ESPN drafts. However, you can get him in round four on Sleeper, Yahoo, Underdog, CBS, and FFPC. So, yeah, I've been
8:32drafting a ton of McMillan in best ball drafts in the fourth round, and I'm probably going to be targeting him there
8:38in the flock league as well. Now, moving over to Mike Evans. Mike Evans all of a sudden just got a little bit safer with
8:44the Ricky Pearsall injury, and now you only have to compete with De'Shawn Shribling, an underwhelming round two NFL draft pick, and Deebo Samuel, who
8:52right now, I mean, of course, this is probably not true, but they're telling us he's going to play some running back
8:56because maybe he's too big and slow to play wide receiver. But anyway, with this Mike Evans profile, it's difficult to come through and call a wide receiver
9:04that finishes the wide receiver 42 in points per game last season at 33 years old the safest pick in round five. But I
9:12do want to reiterate that as we get down to the fifth round, all of these players have red flags. Rome Odunze's never done
9:18it before. DJ Moore's fallen off himself. Treylon Tooton, these guys have never done it. Swift, Montgomery appear to be declining. Davante Adams, I mean,
9:27he is about to turn 34 years old, right?
9:30So, he's even older than Mike Evans. But I really like the situation Evans's going to, where he shouldn't have that many targets, and should be a very good
9:38offense. The only real risk that you have is one, maybe he's washed up at 33 years old, and we saw the drop-off last
9:44season. Or two, maybe he is going to be the next victim of the substation, which prayers up, please, hopefully they turn
9:52that thing off soon. Now, our safest pick in round six, I'm going to try to not talk too much about quarterbacks in
9:59this, because technically, we could make the safest pick in almost every round be QB, because they have just such a high
10:05expected hit rate, even if the ceiling's pretty low. But, Burrow's a pretty damn safe pick, as long as he stays healthy.
10:11The Cincinnati Bengals currently project out to be a top five offense in the league this year. You have Ja'Marr Chase, you have Tee Higgins, the same
10:20coaching staff. That's led Burrow to being an effective quarterback in fantasy year in and year out. And I'll say with Burrow specifically, where I
10:28become more interested in him in comparison to Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts, is if it's going to be a six-point passing touchdown format. It
10:36sounds like the Flock League this year may be switching over to that six-point passing touchdown format, and Burrow's going to get a bump, where I'd say
10:43Daniels and Jalen Hurts are probably the QBs you prefer in a four-point passing TD league. Again, whenever I make my video about the highest upside pick in
10:52every round, I'll probably have Carnell Tate as the best pick in round six.
10:55That's who I've been drafting the most, but this is mainly just looking at the floor and looking at safety. And I think
11:01Burrow's extremely likely to hit as long as he stays healthy. Now, moving over to round seven. This is where, I mean,
11:07almost every player you point at has red flags, and you can go through and you can poke holes in their profile. But, I
11:14do want to give a shout to DK Metcalf, my doppelganger, twin brother, brother from another mother, whatever you want to say. And here with Metcalf, since the
11:24year 2020, he has been very disappointing from a ceiling perspective. 2021 and onwards, he has not finished higher than the wide
11:33receiver 20 in points per game any given year.
11:37But, the floor has been incredibly high.
11:39If we are talking straight safety, DK Metcalf has been an incredibly safe pick. This is a wide receiver that's finished with at least 12 and a half
11:47points per game every single season outside of his rookie year. And very similar to what we are talking about with some of these other players that
11:54just simply don't miss time like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Allen, DK Metcalf hasn't never missed time. Maybe outside of suspensions for fighting or blah blah
12:03blah. But, this dude has played at least 15 games every single season of his career. The vast majority of them he's
12:09out there playing 16 or 17, and he's a really safe wide receiver three that you can have on your roster. Now, in terms
12:16of where I'd be targeting DK Metcalf, if we're looking at the ADP consensus sheet on flockfantasy.com, you can see that he's a sixth-round pick in ESPN leagues.
12:26He goes at the 6-7 turn on Sleeper, but he has an ADP of 81 on Yahoo. So, I actually think Yahoo and CBS is where
12:35you'd be more likely to target him in the eighth round. And from a league format perspective, where I want the safety of DK Metcalf is actually going
12:43to be in those full PPR formats with multiple flex spots. Like again, if I'm playing in the Flock league and I can
12:50take DK Metcalf in the seventh, and I know, "Hey, this is going to be somebody that's pretty safe to slide into my
12:55second flex."
12:56I feel good about that. But, if you're in like a 10-team two-wide receiver single flex format, he probably doesn't have the ceiling to justify the pick. As
13:04we go over to round eight, let me discuss the options that we had to choose from here. Again, this is using
13:09the consensus ADP sheet on flockfantasy.com where we're taking into account Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, Underdog, CBS, FFPC ADP. We're averaging it all
13:18and including the average of flockfantasy.com's rankings. So, obviously, you can see in this list it's a bunch of quarterbacks, couple wide
13:25receivers, and maybe a running back or two. Every single player, once you get to round eight onwards, does inherently have some risk, right? They could very
13:33easily bust, but I do want to try to identify the safest name. And I think the safest name here is probably going
13:39to be R.J. Harvey, as crazy as that sounds, because if we just look at a surface level view of this, R.J. Harvey
13:45is running behind the best offensive line in the league. He finishes the running back 24 in points per game last season, and right now he is being
13:53drafted as the running back 32. So, the current expectations for R.J. Harvey in drafts, at least based on this cost, is
14:02R.J. Harvey is a much worse player in fantasy football this year than he was last. He has an ADP of pick 109 on ESPN,
14:10an ADP of pick 100 on Yahoo. Now, I'll say if you're drafting on Sleeper, there he's a little bit over drafted. There he
14:17has a cost of 68. So, Sleeper, definitely not a safe pick in the sixth round, but if you can get him after pick
14:22100 ESPN Yahoo, I would. And again, that's why we have those custom draft sheets available to you for every single platform, so we can identify, oh, maybe
14:31Harvey's not a guy you want to take in a Sleeper draft, but if you're drafting on ESPN, use that ESPN draft sheet, and it
14:37will highlight R.J. Harvey for you. Now, round nine, again, I want to be avoiding the quarterbacks here, because I feel like that's a little bit of a cheat. We
14:44are going to look at Jordan Addison.
14:46Jordan Addison right now is being drafted as the wide receiver 45 in points per game, and I kind of get it,
14:52right? Jordan Addison was the wide receiver 49 in points per game this past season, but what was Justin Jefferson in points per game? Oh, Jefferson was 32.
15:02And we are drafting Justin Jefferson as a round one NFL draft pick. So, if we are going to be giving Justin Jefferson
15:10an excuse for an absolute horrendous season last year, why wouldn't we for Jordan Addison? Because both receivers had the same exact problem. We can go
15:19through and put in the player comparison tool and look at Jordan Addison over the past 2 years of his NFL career with and
15:26without JJ McCarthy and it is unbelievable, truly unbelievable. In games with JJ McCarthy, Jordan Addison played eight of them.
15:35He averaged 6.3 fantasy points per game and was the wide receiver 72. He wasn't even worth the spot on your roster. This
15:42was a waiver wire player. However, he played 21 games without McCarthy over the past 2 years. This is including bad quarterbacks, right? Yes, Darnold pretty
15:51good, but I mean you have Carson Wentz under center for some of these games.
15:53And what did Addison do? Oh, he averaged 14.2 points per game and he was the wide receiver 23. And then we can track back
16:01what Addison's done through his entire NFL career and keep in mind this is a pretty damn young player. This is a
16:07player that was a phenomenal wide receiver in college. His second year he was the wide receiver 25 in points per game and his rookie season he was the
16:14wide receiver 28. So at the current cost of wide receiver 45, it is an unbelievable discount based on the McCarthy play that he had to deal with
16:23last season, which obviously that's not going to be the case this year. This year he is going to get Kyler Murray and
16:30I mean if he just goes right back to where he was over the past 2 years, right now if we're looking at the ADP
16:36across platforms, he goes after pick 100 on Sleeper. He goes at like a 121 on CBS. It's absolutely unbelievable. Very similar to Metcalf though, if you're in
16:47a 10 team two wide receiver one flex format, you probably don't want to be targeting safe wide receivers at the end. This would be more so a target if
16:55you're playing in that league where you have to start three receivers or you have multiple flex spots like the Flock league. That's where I'm going to be
17:01targeting startable wide receivers in this range. Rounds 10 and 11, I wanted to loop a couple of guys in here because
17:07obviously as we go through and get deeper in the draft boards, this is where drafts become a little bit more random. Like our first example that that
17:15about in this video with the Amon-Ra St.
17:16Brown. We looked at ESPN Sleeper, Yahoo, Underdog, FFPC. We looked at pretty much everything, and every platform had him going at like pick seven, eight, or
17:25nine. But, once we get down to like the 10th, 11th round guys, you'll see a 30 pick gap of where they go on Sleeper
17:33versus where they go on Yahoo. So, again, it's tough to pencil in what is a 10th round pick, what is an 11th round
17:39pick once we're down here. But, there are two names that I wanted to give a shout to, and that's going to be Jamaal
17:44Williams and Rachaad White. Both of these guys are being drafted as the running back 38 or later. And while yes, this backfield also has Keaontay Ingram,
17:53I think the overwhelming favorite to win the job between Rachaad White, Jamaal Williams, and Keaontay Ingram will be one of the two veteran backs. And if
18:03you're taking a shot on a running back that can be the starter in a good NFL offense in the double-digit rounds, for
18:11me, I wouldn't mind drafting both these guys. If in round 10, you can go ahead and snag Rachaad White, and round 11,
18:18you can go ahead and take Jamaal Williams with the understanding of, you know what? Maybe I miss on one of these
18:24picks, but as long as I hit on one of them, I'm golden. Especially maybe you grab yourself an elite quarterback like
18:30Josh Allen. Uh maybe you have a stud wide receiver room like Amon-Ra St.
18:35Brown. Um then maybe in the second round, you grab Drake London. And then you took Josh Allen in the third, and
18:41you need to just guarantee yourself some running back points. I think just double-tapping both of the Washington running backs in rounds 10 and 11 does
18:48just that, and it does give you a pretty damn high floor on your team at running back at a very cheap cost. But, I think
18:54that's all I have for you. I really appreciate you, and I hope I was able to help you out in some way with this
18:58video. Of course, I want to remind you that the flockfantasy.com season pass is still only $34 right now. That's going to hook you up with all the custom drive
19:08sheets for your exact league settings.
19:10That's going to hook you up with the real-time draft assistance for your Sleeper, your ESPN, and your Yahoo!
19:16leagues. Plus, you're going to be getting up-to-date weekly and rest-of-season rankings for almost all your favorite creators you watch on YouTube throughout the entire season.
19:24Trade calculator access, my team's page access, the whole nine yards. And when you use code flock with the season pass, you're also going to be getting free
19:31questions that you can ask me in the live streams that I'm going to be doing every single night during the season
19:35until Christmas. But, much love, ladies and gentlemen. I really appreciate you.
19:39And I really hope I get to see you out in the live stream later tonight.
