VideoFrom Ron Stewart
The RBs to Draft and Avoid in the Middle Rounds (Dead Zone)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
33 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 22, 2026
Published
Sat, August 22, 2026
30
Player insights
29
Players mentioned
Topics
TreVeyon HendersonAlexander MattisonAlvin KamaraBijan RobinsonBraelon AllenBreece HallBucky IrvingCam AkersChristian McCaffreyD'Andre SwiftDalvin CookDavid MontgomeryGarrett WilsonJadarian Price
Player analysis
Player insights
Alexander Mattison
NegativeBust10:05
Ron Stewart categorizes Alexander Mattison as a classic dead zone running back who failed to provide value.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
PositiveValue0:40
Ron Stewart identifies Alvin Kamara as a successful 'dead zone' survivor based on his 2023 performance. Kamara finished as the RB3, averaging 17.9 points per game after being drafted as the RB21.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeUsage22:50
Bijan Robinson is cited as a high-end comparison for the type of design target and screen game usage that could elevate Braelon Allen's fantasy ceiling.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
PositiveSleeper21:02
Braelon Allen is a top-five 'dead zone' target. As a year-two back in a top-15 offense, he has a path to success by assuming a role similar to Travis Etienne's, leveraging his efficiency in short-yardage and goal-line situations to potentially reach 15+ points per game.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeInjury20:52
Breece Hall was on track to be a dead zone survivor as a rookie, averaging over 16 points per game before his season was cut short by an ACL injury.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveValue4:01
Ron Stewart ranks Bucky Irving as his fifth-favorite running back target in the 'dead zone' and is moving him up in current draft rankings. Despite narrowly missing qualifier criteria, Irving offers receiving upside and has demonstrated a 14.2 points-per-game career average, though Kenneth Gainwell remains a workload hurdle.
Insight pageCam Akers
PositiveBreakout27:31
Ron Stewart identifies Cam Akers as a premier 'dead zone' target due to his year-two status and elite usage. In five games last year with over 50% snap share, he saw 100% of backfield carries inside the 10-yard line, a 15.1% target share, and averaged over 20 points per game. Despite ankle injury concerns, he remains a strong candidate to score 14-16 points per game.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeUsage22:50
Christian McCaffrey is cited as a high-end comparison for the type of design target and screen game usage that could elevate Braelon Allen's fantasy ceiling.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveValue9:08
Ron Stewart is moving D'Andre Swift up in his rankings, calling him a favorite 'dead zone' survivor candidate and the only RB to survive the dead zone twice in a 5-year sample. He is projected for 15+ touches per game in a top-10 offense, with receiving upside supported by his history of 5+ targets per game under Ben Johnson in 2022.
Insight pageDalvin Cook
NegativeBust9:57
Ron Stewart cites Dalvin Cook's 2023 season with the Jets as a prime example of a 'dead zone' running back who failed to meet expectations and had an absolutely terrible year.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeBust13:48
Ron Stewart identifies David Montgomery as a 'dead zone' running back in a poor situation, projecting only 15+ touches and 2.1 targets per game. Entering his age-8 season coming off a 9.8 PPG campaign, historical trends suggest he is unlikely to rebound. While he 'smashed' in 2024 due to the Lions' top-ranked offense, he is currently viewed as a red-light candidate with a low hit rate (1 in 38) for his scoring profile.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveValue3:54
Ron Stewart identifies Garrett Wilson as one of the best picks on the board in the third and fourth round area, noting his 14.8 points per game projection is 'above and beyond' other players in that draft range.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeSleeper25:27
Jadarian Price is a long-shot 'dead zone' survivor candidate. As a rookie, he is currently the lead back in practice over George Holani, but his fantasy ceiling is capped by the eventual return of Zach Charbonnet from an ACL injury.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
NegativeUsage14:04
Ron Stewart references Jahmyr Gibbs' RB6 ADP as a benchmark for teammate impact on running back fantasy performance and as a high-end comparison for the type of design target and screen game usage that could elevate other backs.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveUsage20:48
Javonte Williams serves as a positive example of rookie production in the dead zone, having averaged 14.9 points per game during the back half of his rookie season.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveValue0:36
Ron Stewart highlights Josh Jacobs as a successful 'dead zone' survivor who defied expectations by hitting 20 points per game in 2022. Specifically, Jacobs produced 20.1 points per game while being drafted as the RB21 off the board.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
NegativeRole24:14
Kenneth Gainwell is identified as a significant hurdle for Bucky Irving's projected workload and path to a full-time role, making it tough for Irving to secure a primary backfield spot.
Insight pageMike Davis
NegativeBust10:02
Ron Stewart categorizes Mike Davis as a classic dead zone running back who failed to provide value.
Insight pageMiles Sanders
NegativeUsage13:51
Miles Sanders is cited as a historical example of a running back drafted in the dead zone, specifically noting his status as the RB46 off the board in the 2022 season, which Ron Stewart uses to analyze how teammate ADP impacts fantasy environments.
Insight pageNajee Harris
NegativeValue28:48
Ron Stewart is not concerned about Najee Harris's current ADP, noting that he would only be worried if Harris's ADP rose significantly to the RB29 or RB30 range, which he views as unlikely.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
NegativeBust4:01
Ron Stewart labels Quinshon Judkins an avoid in the 'dead zone' and is moving him down in his rankings. Despite high volume projections, his offense is projected 30th overall, and he lacks the receiving profile (needing 4+ targets per game) required to succeed in Todd Monken's scheme, especially with competition from Dylan Sampson.
Insight pageRaheem Mostert
NegativeBust10:05
Ron Stewart categorizes Raheem Mostert as a classic dead zone running back who failed to provide value.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
NegativeUsage32:47
Ron Stewart views Rhamondre Stevenson as a potential 'dead zone' survivor, but notes his projection is limited to just 12.5 touches per game. Stewart argues that Stevenson is unlikely to fend off TreVeyon Henderson for the primary role unless Henderson suffers an injury.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveUsage20:45
RJ Harvey is highlighted for his late-season rookie production, averaging 15.2 points per game during the back half of his rookie season, supporting the viability of rookie RBs in the dead zone.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveValue3:47
Ron Stewart is moving Travis Etienne up in his draft rankings, citing him as a strong 'dead zone' target with the highest point-per-game projection (13.7) on his list and a projected 17.3 touches per game. While his 3.3 targets per game projection is doing heavy lifting, his 2023 performance and yards-per-route-run efficiency suggest he could expand his receiving role, especially with potential injury opportunities in the backfield.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
PositiveUsage20:37
Trevon Henderson demonstrated rookie potential in the dead zone by averaging 17.6 points per game from weeks 10 through 17, proving that rookie status is not a disqualifier for success.
Insight pageNegativeProjection26:59
Ron Stewart is moving down TreVeyon Henderson due to concerns over his role, poor efficiency (0.93 YPRR), and a low projection of 13.1 touches per game. Stewart advises against drafting him at his current home league ADP of a 4/5 turn, preferring him only in the middle of the sixth round, and notes that Rhamondre Stevenson could gain ground if Henderson deals with health issues.
Insight pageTyrone Tracy
NegativeProjection17:17
Ron Stewart is not worried about Tyrone Tracy's current ADP; he would only express concern if Tracy's ADP rose significantly into the RB29 or RB30 range, which he considers unlikely.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
NegativeDepth Chart25:42
Zach Charbonnet is viewed as the primary competition limiting Jadarian Price's fantasy ceiling, though his recovery from an ACL injury creates uncertainty regarding his availability and effectiveness.
Insight pageZamir White
NegativeBust10:02
Ron Stewart categorizes Zamir White as a classic dead zone running back who failed to provide value.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and the running back dead zone is back in 2026 with 17
0:07running backs getting drafted inside of the first three rounds of sleeper leagues. That is the most since 2021, a 5-year high at the position. And what
0:16that means is that we are pushing up the RB18 and the RB19 and these middle tier RB2s into the fourth round and the fifth
0:24round and the sixth round so that you are drafting projected touches at the position over league winning upside at wide receiver, quarterback, and tight
0:30end. But that doesn't mean that there's never been a good running back to get drafted in the dead zone. We have seen
0:36Josh Jacobs hit 20 points per game in 2022 getting drafted in the middle rounds. We saw with Alvin Kamar at 17.9
0:42points per game as the RB3 in 2023. So, while I might say avoid running backs in the dead zone, only a Sith deals in
0:49absolutes and there will come a time where you might need an RB2 or a running back value falls to you and you need to
0:54take a running back. Picking that running back in the dead zone is like threading a needle and today we are going to thread that needle defining the
1:01running back dead zone. look at the data from the past five seasons and then give you a tiered list of all of the dead
1:07zone running backs in 2026 by how likely they are to crush their ADP and flip the dead zone on its head as a league winner
1:15this season. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new.
1:18And with that being said, let's define the RB dead zone. I went ahead and I took Rich Rebar over at Sharp Football,
1:25Mike Clay over at ESPN, and Dwayne McFarland over at Fantasy Life. took their average point- per game projections and I charted it over the
1:32consensus ADPs over at ESPN, Yahoo, and Sleeper so that we could chart out each running back and wide receivers projected points per game over where
1:41they're being drafted. And you can see once you get to about pick 37, we see the wide receivers in red start to pull
1:49away from the running backs in blue.
1:50There is a gap widening here as you get to the dead zone, which I am going to define as rounds four through six. And
1:57that is the RB dead zone where everyone is sprinting to fill their RB2 spot with low baseline projections as the wide
2:04receivers just project as better picks.
2:06Not to mention the quarterbacks and tight ends going in this range. Now, for a better look at that yellow RB dead
2:12zone, we have literally straight up the running back and wide receiver projections versus their consensus ranking. We have the fourth round, the
2:19fifth round, and the sixth round here showing that in every round, the wide receivers are projecting for better point- per game outputs than the running
2:27backs. Broadly speaking, at the top end, you do have Travis Tien in there at 13.7 points per game in the area of T.
2:34Higgins, Ibuka, Lad Makoni, not quite Garrett Wilson, but Garrett Wilson is the only one that's really above and beyond, but you can see Scatabo is
2:41meaningfully below them. And then Bucky Irving and Judkins are meaningfully below the wide receivers in this range.
2:47And you can go all the way down. If we were just to sort by the best point per game projections on this list, six of
2:52the bottom eight would be running backs.
2:5410 of the top 12 would be wide receivers. And the average wide receiver in this range projects for 12.9 points per game. The running backs 12 points
3:01per game. We want to be stocking up on wide receivers in this range unless we believe one of these running backs can
3:06outscore the wide receivers. Now, the RB dead zone exists also because of the opportunity cost. We went ahead in my overall strategy video for 2026. I'll
3:15link it somewhere up top here. And we made a wins above replacement metric.
3:19Essentially, what that allows us to do is we can now break down position versus position at price. Now, I break it all
3:28down in detail on the strategy video, but essentially, we went ahead, we took wins above replacement, and we defined league winners and busts across the
3:35board. Now, rounds three through four for running backs and wide receivers are super low in terms of league winner rates. They're also pretty high in terms
3:42of bust rates, but we do know in this range we've seen massive league winners in terms of Cooper Cup in 2021, JSN last
3:49season, and there's also really good tight end and quarterback picks here.
3:53That's Josh Allen on a yearly basis.
3:55That was Trey McBride last year. But it's really this round five and six area that is the one to mention when it comes
4:01to the wide receiver versus running back debate and why the running back dead zone exists. Yes, you're going to see that the running back dead zone in
4:07rounds five through six has a 12.1% league winner rate, but it also has double the bust rate of the wide receivers in this range. And then once
4:15we get to the wide receivers here, 10.7% league winner rate goes all the way down to 3.2% in this next round. Whereas the
4:23running backs are still at 11.1%. So, while the wide receivers might project better than the running backs in rounds 7, 8, 9, and 10, there is way more
4:32upside at the running back position, making it so you want to be avoiding the running backs in the dead zone rounds
4:36four through six, and then taking your shots on running backs in that range, assuming you've already taken your wide receivers to kind of chill out when it
4:44comes to filling that need. So now we know the RB dead zone exists in 2026 because of point per game projections
4:49and the high upside wide receivers you are passing on to take I would say comfy feelgood projected touch middle tier RB2s in your starting lineup. But we've
4:59seen historically it's just not the best way to play it in fantasy football. Now here's the tricky part. The RB dead zone
5:06was kind of dead for the last three years there. So it's not as simple as saying let's compare rounds four through
5:11six running backs versus wide receivers over the last five seasons. So instead, we'll be taking RB18 through RB27. That is 10 running backs in that middle tier
5:21RB2 range to high-end RB3 range and looking at that range of running backs in every year since 2021. What that gives us is this sample of running backs
5:30sorted by wins above replacement. You can of course see their season, their names. You have RB18 through 27. So that's 10 every season, 50 total, the
5:40amount of games they played, their points per game, their ADP by position, right? So 23 means RB3. 22 means RB22.
5:47There are wins above replacement.
5:48DeAndre Swift last year in 2025. If you drafted him, he was worth roughly the difference between going seven and seven and going 8 and six. And then you have
5:55the guys who absolutely flamed out here.
5:57If you remember, this is Dvin Cook in 2023 when he signs with the Jets and just has an absolutely terrible year.
6:02You can look at Zamir White and Mike Davis, uh, Raheem Oster, Alexander Madison, just a lot of classic dead zone RBs in this area. Now, before we apply
6:11things to 2026, we have to define what a hit in the RB dead zone is. And we're going to call these the RB dead zone
6:18survivors. These are running backs drafted RB18 through RB27 by positional ADP with one or more wins above replacement. And that gives us this list
6:29highlighted by Josh Jacobs in 2022 with 20.1 points per game as the RB21 off the board. Alvin Kamaro with 17.9 points per
6:36game as the RB21 off the board in 2023 and so on. We have had 10 hits in a sample of 50. That's pretty low, right?
6:45We're talking a 20% hit rate in the RB dead zone, but it it's still something.
6:49It's not like, okay, you have to avoid this range no matter what. We can still find winners, and I want to focus in on
6:55this group of 10 because that means about two running backs in the dead zone every year end up being dead zone
7:01survivors. And the point of this video is to find the survivors for 2026. It's also worth noting every RB dead zone
7:07survivor had 14 or more points per game, which falls right in line with our projection data. We of course have Garrett Wilson at 14.8 points per game.
7:15Again, this is why I think he's one of the best picks on the board in that third and fourth round area. But after
7:20that, 14 points per game gives you a meaningful edge over every wide receiver drafted in this range. And even more so
7:26if you can get that to happen in round five or round six. Now, yes, we could just use points per game instead of wins
7:31above replacement, but 16 points per game of 12 games played versus 14 points per game of 16 games played isn't easy
7:38to quantify. Wins above replacement does that for us. So, it's kind of a combination of games played and points per game. So, then I went ahead and I
7:44looked at the entire RB dead zone since 2021. Again, a sample of 50 running backs to kind of take into account what
7:51didn't work, what failed, and then also what worked for the RB dead zone survivors. We have this sorted by wins above replacement here. We compiled
8:00every player's season, the team they played on, their age in that season, their wins above replacement, points per game, games played, their career year,
8:07right? So if they are a rookie, that's career year one, sophomore year two. Uh the points per game they put up in the
8:12previous season, minimum eight games played, their volume in this season, so how many touches per game, how many targets per game, their previous year,
8:19yards per out run. This is something I know that JJ Zachares did a study on, I believe last off season. I wanted to see
8:24for myself if there was any signal here.
8:27We have your teammates RB80P, right? So, you look here, I have this highlighted.
8:31Uh I believe that this is going to be like Miles Sanders had his RB2 as the RB46 off the board in this 2022 season
8:41just to see, you know, on the extreme end you have David Montgomery season where Jir gives us the RB6 off the
8:46board. I wanted to see if there's any signal there. and then environment, your points scored by your team in terms of
8:51ranking and then your established the run preseason offensive line ranking to see what we could kind of figure out in terms of what matters when it comes to
8:58finding these survivors in the dead zone. And that brings us here looking at the 10 dead zone survivors sorted by wins above replacement here. On average,
9:06a dead zone survivor is about 25 to 26 years old. They average about a 1.3 wins above replacement, about 15.8 points per
9:13game. They play about 15 games. They're in their fourth or fifth season. Their previous points per game was 12.2. Their touches per game 18.1. Targets per game
9:22four. Previous years per run 1.2. Their teammates RBDP is about 39.4. They're in a top high-end offense. They are in a
9:32top half of the league offensive line environment. Now, that's good and well, but it's incredibly narrow when we're looking at the RB dead zone in 2026.
9:41Now, in the legendary wide receiver and legendary running back video, we made point per game ceiling projection models. And while in the RB dead zone,
9:49when it comes to survivors, we are looking for ceiling. It's also a smaller sample, right? We could go back and look
9:54at the last 35 20 plus point per game running backs, a little it's a little bit trickier when we're talking about
9:58RB18 to RB27 ADP. The market's changing.
10:01So, we really have a sample of 10 to look at, but then we also have a sample of 40 guys who didn't work out. And what
10:07that gave me is the dead zone survivor checklist. Again, these are built from the 50 running backs drafted RB18 to 27
10:16since 2021. And then we have the qualifiers. You need to hit these three qualifiers just to have a chance to be a
10:23survivor here. You need to have at least a top 15 scoring offense or four plus targets per game. When we look at
10:30projections, top 15 scoring is easy.
10:32Four plus targets in projections is really tough to hit. We lowered it to three plus for this exercise. 10 of 10
10:38survivors had at least four plus targets per game or a top 15 scoring offense.
10:44That's a 10 of 10 hit rate. The ones who didn't survive, only 17 of that list of 40 hit one of these two qualifiers. Then
10:52we have veterans. If you were in year three or later, your previous year points per game needs to be 12 plus
10:58points per game. That is a hit for all six year three or later running backs in the survivor pool. And then no teammate
11:06running back drafted inside of the top 30 unless you're on a top 10 offense.
11:10That is essentially the David Montgomery rule. David Montgomery smashed in the dead zone next to Jir Gibbs because they had the number one offense in all of
11:17football. If that's not available to you, then being the handcuff or the second fiddle in a backfield isn't going to work. Now, if you make it through the
11:25qualifiers, we have a score based on the checklist. So essentially, it's going to be a survivor RB score. Do you make it
11:31through the qualifiers? And if you do, here is how you can get a score that makes it more or less likely that you
11:36can be among the survivors in 2026.
11:38First, are you a year 2 running back?
11:41Simply, four of seven year 2 running backs were survivors. That's a huge hit rate compared to just six of 43 when it
11:48comes to the rest of the sample. Over half of the year 2 running backs in the dead zone have hit in previous seasons.
11:54So you get plus three, the biggest boost if you were in year two. You get plus one if you're in a top 15 offense. Plus
12:00one if you have a three plus targets per game projection. Then the workhorse projection. You get plus two if you are
12:06projected for 15 or more touches. Every survivor had 15.8 touches per game or more. Uh prior year yards per out run.
12:14Seven of the 10 survivors had one plus yards per run in the previous season.
12:18You get a plus one for that. And then a clean backfield. If you don't have a running back getting drafted inside of
12:23the top 30, you get a plus one. Now, I do want to give a note on rookies, right? We talked about year two is a big
12:29target in the dead zone. There have been four dead zone rookie running backs drafted. None of them have hit the survivor label, but there is some
12:37context here. One, they have been late season hammers. We have seen from weeks 10 through 17, Trevon Henderson hit 17.6 points per game in the dead zone. RJ
12:45Harvey last year 15.2 points per game.
12:48And then Javvante Williams in his rookie year hit 14.9 points per game in the back half of the season. And then Bree
12:54Hall was the other guy who didn't hit.
12:55He tore his ACL, but before that was at 16 plus points per game, which would have easily been a dead zone survivor.
13:01So, I wouldn't knock anybody for being a rookie. It is probably about neutral if you're a rookie in the RB dead zone.
13:07Now, that brings us to the hit rates of this survivor guide here. If you hit the three qualifiers, that is a sample of
13:1319. 10 of 19 of those qualifiers have hit as the survivors in the RB dead zone. Zero of 31. If you did not hit one
13:20of the three qualifiers of top 15 scoring offense or four plus targets per game, 12 plus points per game if you
13:26were in year three or later in your previous season, and then an RB teammate that is not drafted inside the top 30 at
13:33their position. And then we have the scores. If you can hit a seven plus among the qualified candidates, that is a 100% hit rate. Small sample at four or
13:41four, but really strong. Then we have yellow light. If your score is between four to six, five of eight hit rate, so
13:46about a coin flip. And then red light.
13:48We have a hit rate of one of 38 David Montgomery in 2024. If your score is less than four, it is looking really
13:57rough in the qualifier zone. And now what you came to this video for. This is the checklist for RB dead zone survivors
14:04applied to the RB dead zone in 2026, RB18 through RB27. Our 10 candidates going in that round four through six area. As always, all I ask is that if
14:14you made it this far in the video and you enjoy the amount of data and research we put into these videos on
14:19this channel, subscribe. It helps us out a ton this time of year when we're trying to grow and leave a like on the
14:24video. And also comment, it helps us out a ton. So, looking at the 2026 candidates, here is what we have. We
14:30have these three columns. These are the qualifiers. Did you have three or more targets by projections or a top 15 offense? This is going to be from the
14:38Vegas implied team totals. And then all the projections for targets and points per game and touches is going to come from an average again of Mike Clay, Rich
14:45Reebar, and Dwayne McFarland to give us a very even median look at everybody's projections. No bias involved. Our first column is three plus targets per game or
14:56being on a top 15 offense. Did you have 12 plus points per game if you are a year three running backer later in the
15:02previous season? Is your teammate ADP inside of the top 30? If you hit all of those, you are now in the qualified
15:08tier. If not, you are in the disqualified tier. Then we have each score. Are you a year two running back?
15:13You get a plus three. Are you projected for 15 plus touches? You get a plus two.
15:16If you're projected in a top 15 offense, you get a plus one. If you're projected for three or more targets, you get a
15:21plus one. If your previous year yards per out run was one or better, you get a plus one. And if your teammate is
15:26drafted outside of the top 30 in ADP, you get a plus one to give you a score and then a tier from earlier. if you
15:33remember the green bar, the yellow bar, and the red bar for the qualifiers. So now, with that being said, we're going
15:40to take all 10 running backs in 2026 in the RB dead zone and tier them by front runner. We're going to have my targets
15:47in the dead zone. That is going to be five running backs, essentially my five picks to be the survivors in this year's
15:53RB dead zone. Then long shots, a couple guys that I wouldn't call dead, but aren't likely to finish as a survivor in
15:59the dead zone this year. And then my avoids, guys that I am lowering down the rankings as RBs that I do truly believe
16:05are your dead zone running backs in 2026. Our front runner as the RB dead zone survivor in 2026 is Cam Scatabo. He
16:14comes out here as the only green light scorer on the list. He is projected for three or more targets per game. He is in
16:21his second season, so he gets a huge bump there. His teammate is out to the top 30 in ADP. He's reed for 15 plus
16:27touches. His yards per run last year of 1.54 was amazing. Across the board, he fits the profile of a dead zone survivor
16:34and he is just somebody I want to be betting on. We look at those seven plus score year 2 RBs to come alive in the
16:42dead zone. Previously, you have James Cook, Rashad White, Isaiah Pacheco, and DeAndre Swift. Scatabo is the next coming of that area of year 2 running
16:51backs and his usage and his role is just too good. Last year in five games when Cam Scatabo played over half the snaps,
16:57pretty much excluding the first two weeks of his rookie season in the game he got hurt. He had 100% of the
17:02backfield inside the 10 carries. He had a 15.1% target share as the RB5 in that category and he averaged over 20 points
17:09per game. It's very simple. Year two running back receiving upside goal line upside when it comes to Cam Scatabo. My only issue is the ankle issue. Is he
17:17going to be himself off of the ankle?
17:19Even so, he could be not his 20 plus point per game self and he could score 14 to 16 points per game and be a dead
17:28zone survivor in this area. No, I am not worried about Naji Harris or Tyrone Tracy at this point in time. I'll really
17:35only be worried about them if somehow one of them rises up to the RB30 or the RB 29 and ADP, which I just don't see as
17:42a real possibility. Which then brings us to our targets. These are still guys that I think are really strong picks in
17:47the RB dead zone to come alive as one of the survivors here. Just not as good as Cam Scatabo as a true green light scorer
17:53in our checklist. But we have Travis ETN. He has the highest point per game projection on this list. If we go back
18:01to that list from earlier showing the wide receivers versus the running backs, you can see he is up here with a 13.7
18:06point per game projection, making him a really strong running back pick even in the dead zone. We also have some things
18:13going for him here. Alvin Kamara is injured. Devin Neil is hurt. Audrey Estame is hurt. Everybody in this backfield is hurt. We have a week one
18:22game in Detroit from Mark Denin bringing over at Establish the Run. It's actually just showing that ETN is going to be the
18:27workhorse out the gate. Now, when it comes to the checklist here, I wouldn't go crazy with ETN when it comes to this because the 3.3 targets
18:37per game projection is doing a lot of heavy lifting. And again, we needed to actually hit four plus targets per game
18:42in the actual regular season for him to hit this qualifier. He's on track, but you do have to remember he's only hit
18:48four plus targets per game once. That was in 2023, but him clearing one plus yards per out run does signal he could
18:55expand his receiving role. We also have him hitting over 12 points per game last year. He has no teammate in sight when
19:01it comes to team ADP. He's projected for the most touches on this list at 17.3.
19:06So, he is a yellow light running back in this range, but he could also hit a qualifier with this offense where the
19:11Saints, they are projected for the 23rd most points by Las Vegas, but it's not hard to see them jump from 23 to 14th
19:18with Kell Moore with this offensive line that established a run has ranked seventh in the NFL. And also, when we talk about receiving upside with Kamar
19:25Hurt and Jordan Tyson Hurt, you could see some targets start to funnel to Travis ETN. Then, our next target is one
19:32of my favorites. We have DeAndre Swift.
19:34He is the only running back to survive the dead zone twice in our 5-year sample. I think he does it this year for
19:40the third time. When we look at him on the checklist, he's in a top 15 offense.
19:44In fact, Vegas has them 10th. He had 12 plus points per game last year. His teammate Kyle Manungi is in range, but
19:50RB35 and ADP is going to hold them off just a little bit here. He's rected for 15 plus touches per game. He has above a
19:57one plus yards per run last season. And we have Kyle Manungai already a little bit banged up here. This from Zayn Dani
20:05where he is knee week to week. We could see DeAndre Swift come right out the gate as a high usage runner on a good
20:11team in a good offense. Could he go up there as like a 20 plus point per game scorer? No. But this could be a textbook
20:19survivor where he gives you 15 points per game. He outscores a lot of the wide receivers in this range. Maybe he
20:24doesn't beat out whoever the league winner is in round five, but he could be a really strong option at RB2 that isn't
20:29an 11 point per game scorer and kind of kills you in that dead zone area.
20:34DeAndre Swift has hit the RB dead zone twice and Ben Johnson in this area has two running backs surviving the dead
20:39zone. It's DeAndre Swift in 2025 and David Montgomery in 2024. All little things to look at here. And then also DeAndre Swift, his receiving upside, he
20:47did have a five plus targets per game season with Ben Johnson in 2022 on the Lions.
20:53I wouldn't hold my breath about it with Lovelin and Burden and uh Odun and Swift's usage last season, but the receiving lever is always there for
21:02DeAndre Swift. And that takes us to my fourth favorite RB dead zone candidate, Beijel Tutin. We look here on the qualifier list. He is the only other
21:13year 2 running back to make the qualifier list. And we know year two running backs in the dead zone have been
21:18a cheat code. He of course is on the 15th projected offense, which is really getting there by the skin of our teeth
21:24on this list. He's a year two running back, so his prior production does not matter. His teammates ADP is RB42. He's
21:30in year two in a top 15 offense, and that's really all he has going for him.
21:34His projected touches are only 14. His yards per run last year was only 0.9, which is really tough because we want to
21:41see him take a step forward and contend for four plus targets per game. But on a 0.9 yards per run, that would be really,
21:48really tricky. I looked through the data and to get to four plus targets per game, your previous year yards per run
21:54had to be 1.13 or higher. I think we take that down to one plus, but yards per run in the previous season is an
22:00indicator of your receiving upside in that next season. I'm willing to say Basiltin is going into year two. He could progress in that area, but it's
22:09not a great sign when that's the case.
22:11Now, how Basil Tutin beats the dead zone is pretty simple. He takes ETN's role from last year. His success rate in
22:18short yardage areas is outlined from Datarama here, showing he was seventh in success rate on third or less yards to go situations, second in stuff rate,
22:27first in percentage of runs converted into touchdown or first downs. He beats Chris Rodriguez in all of those categories. Then on top of that, yes,
22:33maybe he's not a four plus target per game player, but he could be the ETN in this offense where ETN had 2.5 points
22:41per game added on a weekly basis due to the design target game, meaning screens and fun usage from Liam Cohen. If Tuton
22:50can get that role and get in this area of Bejon, McAffrey, and Gibbs when it comes to design target usage in the
22:56screen game, that would be a big boost as well. So if we can get touchdown upside in this offense and then screen
23:00usage to really boost things on top of that 15 plus points per game is definitely in the range of outcomes for
23:05Basil Tutin. He's also a 4340 guy coming out of school and could show off some explosion and efficiency in this offense. Then our fifth target here in
23:15the RB dead zone. This is it. This is my five. I don't know if I'm going to title this video uh five running backs to make
23:20it out of the dead zone or five running backs I'm targeting, but if I do, these are the five. These are my stamps signed
23:26and delivered running backs to make it out of the dead zone in 2026. If there are two in 2026, as there have been
23:33every year, right? Like give or take 10 over the course of five seasons. If we get two in 2026, this video is a W if two of them come
23:41from this list of five. And you might look at this list and say, well, Bucky Irving is not in the qualifiers area, so
23:47he doesn't really have a chance. Here's what I'll say. We're working with projections here. He misses it because he only has a 2.6 6 projected targets
23:54per game. That is only point4 less than the three plus he needs and the 18th projected scoring offense by Vegas is
24:01missing the top 15 cuto off by three. He is right there when it comes to being a qualifier. And this is somebody that has
24:08the receiving upside in the past. He has 3.7 targets per game in his 12 career starts. He could take a step in year
24:14three towards four plus. But I will say with Kenneth Gainwell in that backfield, it's going to be tough. The more appropriate thing we're looking at is
24:21his 15.7 touches per game projection here. You also have a previous season 1.49 yards per out run makes it so Bucky
24:28Irving can get efficiency and more targets. Maybe not that four plus that we need, but if he can get to 3.5 plus
24:35targets per game, if this offense goes from 18th in projections, but instead up to top 10 like it was in 2024, and then
24:42all of a sudden this offensive line, which is projected for the third best unit by established the run, he has a
24:4714.2 two point per game number over his 27 career games when he wasn't even even a starter through seven or so games in
24:54that 2024 rookie season. 14 plus is all we're shooting for. Bucky Irving, if somebody was going to make it out of the
25:01not qualified list, he just barely misses and Bucky Irving would be my fifth target in this range. Which then takes us to our long shots. These guys
25:10aren't fades for me in the dead zone, but I'm definitely shying away. Unless they get to the sixth round, then I
25:15think that they are pretty much fine picks at ADP, but they wouldn't be my stamped approval. These guys can be one
25:22of those survivors in the dead zone. But in the long shot tier as the sixth most likely running back to make it out of
25:27the dead zone, we are going to have Jadaren Price. He is a rookie. We are 0 for four on rookies in the dead zone,
25:35but again, they tend to backload production. But that's where things get muddy with Jadariian Price because Zack Charbanet is going to limit his ceiling
25:42down the stretch in the playoffs. When you take your swing on Jadarian Price, the swing is that he is so good and Zack
25:48Charbanet coming off an ACL isn't the same guy that Jadariian Price can keep off Zack Sharbon down the stretch. I don't think it's a wild thing to think a
25:55first round pick that could keep Jeremiah Love from winning a Heisman and getting 10 plus touchdowns in the same offense as Jeremiah Love could demand a
26:04certain chunk of this backfield. It's just a thinner bet than the others. We see here even as a qualifier, right? The
26:10eighth best offense. He's a rookie. His teammates ADP is RB43.
26:15That's really all he has, right? The targets per game is the lowest on this list. Touches per game is lowest on this
26:20list. And he's a red light among the qualifiers. He would be the most unlikely survivor running back in the dead zone since David Montgomery. But I
26:28do think he could do it. There are some things to hold on to when it comes to Jadarian Price. We have this from Zayn
26:33Denani. Jaren Price was the first running back yesterday in practice above George Helani and will likely be the clear lead back for the Seahawks. But
26:41again, he's going to be the clear lead back early. It's it's just a matter of time until Charbanet comes back. The
26:46hope is that he is so good as a rookie and these rookies are mystery boxes, right? What if he is as good as rookie
26:52year Bree Hall? Can he hold off a hampered Zack Charbanet in a top 15 offense? He has some things to hang on
26:59to. Which then takes us to our seventh pick in the RB dead zone. Trevian Henderson. It could be a Jamir Gibbs
27:05Montgomery situation. Yes, Gibbs and Montgomery were in the number one offense in football. Could the Patriots with AJ Brown, Drake May another year
27:13after an MVP campaign. Could they get there? Maybe. It's just a really, really thin needle to thread. And then I also
27:20looked back. This is the first time in five years where there were two dead zone running backs getting drafted right next to each other. I even kind of
27:27expanded things to uh like RB12 to early RB30s to see the teammate list and it wasn't good. You were looking at like
27:34Raheem Moer dead zone with Devon Achan RB12.
27:39There's a chance one of these guys emerge, but when they're neck andneck like this, it gets tough. They could block each other, one could get hurt,
27:45one could get benched or just like completely put into the doghouse. There are definitely outcomes here for Trevian Henderson to hit. We don't want to
27:51underrate his year 2 upside, but we put him through the checklist here. He hits the offense. He hits year two. His
27:57teammate holds him back, but he's only projected for 13.1 touches per game. His big thing that was a real big bummer
28:05when I looked at it, 0.93 yards per out run for a guy coming out of school that was known for his receiving upside. And
28:10Raandre last year was at 1.34 yards per out run. Meaning if this was a spot where instead of Arandre Stevenson, it
28:17was just a pure between the tackles Jordan Mason style running back, then I would feel better about it. But there's a chance that they split. Passing
28:24down work pretty much 50/50 as a true split here. I still do want to bet on the year two upside of Trevon
28:30Henderson. Henderson's getting cheaper.
28:31I've taken him in some drafts in that middle of the sixth round area. But where he's going in home leagues as like
28:36a four, five turn pick, I just can't do it there. Uh I would love to see him hit. I would love to see him break out
28:42in a big way. But when we did this exercise, things did come up pretty bad for him. And then we just have my
28:47straightup avoids. These are guys that after doing this research, I am not interested in in the dead zone. In the eighth spot in terms of most likely to
28:55hit a survivor season is Judkins. Now, he's an Enigma. He has the second highest score on this list, but I don't
29:03see him hitting either of the qualifiers. His offense is projected 30th overall. He needs to get to top 15.
29:08I think that's just a bridge too far.
29:10And then 2.4 targets per game. He needs to get to three plus target or actually no, no, he needs to get to four plus
29:15targets per game during the season. I just don't see it. Especially when we talk about Todd Monin in his running back roles. This is from Ryan Heath here
29:22showing that every time that Monin has called plays, there has been a leader in rush attempts per game and a leader in
29:28targets per game. And even with that, he has only had two running backs hit four plus targets per game. That was Charles
29:34Sims and it was Kareem Hunt. Two receiving specialist. Dylan Samson is already on the team. I just can't see it happening. Yes, there's year two upside.
29:42Yes, he's getting all the volume in the world and he hits the 15 plus touches projection. He hit a one plus yards per
29:47out run last year. He has no teammate in sight, but he is a dead zone running back. Sure, he's a year two running back
29:53and it makes things complicated, but he is just projected for a lot of touches in a bad situation. Similar deal here
30:00would be David Montgomery projected for touches in a bad situation, projected for 15 plus touches here, but this is the 19th projected offense. Maybe they
30:10could jump the top 15, maybe. But then he also has just 2.1 targets per game as his projection only ahead of Jadarian
30:17Price. So no receiving upside here. And then yes, he was teammates with Jamir Gibbs last year, but being a player going into year eight where you're
30:24coming off a season of 9.8 points per game has been a really big signal that is not going to happen for you in that
30:30next season. Again, yes, he was with Jir Gibbs, but in the previous two seasons next to Jir Gibbs, he was at 15.8 points
30:35per game and 14.8 points per game. Yes, it says a lot about Jir Gibbs, but it also says a lot for David Montgomery
30:41that he wasn't a undeniable talent worthy of keeping Gibbs off of the field. I think that is going to hurt him
30:47when it comes to exceeding the dead zone expectations. And then you have Raandre Stevenson. I could see if Henderson gets hurt, Stevenson making his way as a
30:57player here to survive the dead zone.
30:59But while he has the offense and he has the production from last season, we're still talking about just 12.5 touches per game
31:07as his projection, the lowest on this list. We know year two running backs are the most dangerous on this list. I I
31:13just can't see him fending off Trevon Henderson without an injury to Trevian Henderson, which then brings us here. We have dissected the RB dead zone in 2026.
31:23We have our front runner in Cam Scatabo.
31:25We have five total targets in the dead zone. two long shots in the sixth round that you can take shots on and then
31:31three clear avoids. This is my strategy going into the RB dead zone for 2026 as it is back for the first time since
31:382021. And all of this research we do in these videos, the legendary wide receiver and running back videos, this RB deadzone video is all reflected in
31:46the basement draft guide. Go check it out. The basementdraftguide.com.
31:49As I post this video, I am moving up Cam Scatabo, Travis ETN, DeAndre Swift, Basil Tutin, and Bucky Irving. I'm moving down Trevian Henderson. I'm
31:58moving down Quinn Sean Judkins. I'm moving down David Montgomery especially after this research. It is all reflected in the rankings. My rankings are backed
32:06on proven research we do in these videos. You have my tier top 200, my player notes, my target rounds. You can
32:12sync it to your sleeper draft so that it crosses off players as you go. You have my targets and fades. You can compare my
32:18rankings to high stakes ADP. You can compare high stakes ADP to sleeper drafts and Yahoo, ESPN. It is the number one draft tool that I'm using in all of
32:26my own drafts. I eat at my own restaurant. Try it out for yourself. The basementdraftguide.com. Find it in the description and the comment section down
32:33below. But that's going to do it for us today. Thank you for watching. Subscribe if you enjoyed that video. Leave a like
32:39if you're new. Leave a comment as well.
32:41It's that time of year. Let me know what you guys think. Are these your five targets? Is there flaws in the research?
32:46I will say as well, none of this is perfect. We are dissecting a sample of 50 running backs over the last five
32:51seasons, but I think that the takeaways are solid here. Anyways, thanks for watching and I'll see y'all in the next one.
33:10Oh yeah.
33:12Stones like this froze ice cold ice.
