VideoFrom Ron Stewart
7 RBs You Need to Draft Before They Breakout in 2026
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
30 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 31, 2026
Published
Mon, August 31, 2026
8
Player insights
8
Players mentioned
Topics
Bucky IrvingCam AkersJadarian PriceJeremiyah LoveJonathon BrooksJosh JacobsRJ HarveyTreVeyon Henderson
Player analysis
Player insights
Bucky Irving
PositiveBreakout21:44
Ron Stewart ranks Bucky Irving as RB20, one spot higher than consensus RB21, and projects him as an early fifth-round pick versus consensus ADP of 4.11. Irving is positioned as a year-three breakout candidate who can finally break through as an RB1 in points per game for the first time in his career, supported by sustained health throughout camp, offensive line improvements (ranked third in NFL), and a favorable offensive coordinator switch to Zack Robinson from the Falcons who emphasizes snap motion and screen game usage. Irving was a full go on day one of camp and has sustained health the entire time. Shawn Tucker has been on the outs with the team. Irving's 2025 struggles can be pinned to injury and off-field mental health issues, but he appears 100% ready to go. Baker Mayfield is praising him, and Stewart expects Irving to be the RB1 on a Buccaneers team projected to bounce back significantly. Irving is positioned as the RB1 on the Buccaneers with red zone and goal-line work expected to increase. Shawn Tucker took a pay cut to remain on the team, signaling he is firmly the RB3 on the depth chart and unlikely to be a factor unless Irving or Kenneth Gainwell get hurt. Despite Gainwell's 70-plus receptions last year taking some passing-down work, Irving has historically battled Rashad White for opportunities and still finished inside the top 24, suggesting he can take the next step forward even with reduced passing-down volume. The Buccaneers offense is positioned to bounce back significantly in 2026 after a down 2025 season marked by injuries to Baker Mayfield, Irving, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Amecha Ibuka. Mayfield was in MVP conversations through six weeks before the team fell apart; with all offensive weapons getting healthy and the offensive line now ranked third in the NFL, Irving benefits from a healthier supporting cast and improved quarterback play.
Insight pageCam Akers
PositiveBreakout27:28
Honorable mention breakout candidate described as 'the face and the focal point' of dead zone running back research. Akers was technically an RB1 on a per-game basis last year before injury, positioning him as a strong breakout candidate for 2026.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeBreakout11:24
Ron Stewart projects Jadarian Price as a top-24 running back finisher in his rookie season, ranking him four spots ahead of consensus ADP. Price is a first-round running back pick on the Seahawks, who have the 10th-best offensive line and 10th-highest implied point total by Vegas. The Seahawks shut down Price after week one of preseason, indicating coaches Mike McDonald and John Schneider believe he is too valuable based on his speed, decisiveness, and cutting ability in outside zone gaps and pass-catching. Depth chart advantages include Emanuel Wilson starting on IR and Zack Charban recovering from ACL tear, leaving Price versus George Hani early in the season. Stewart compares the situation to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (32nd overall pick to Super Bowl champion), who hit 13.5 PPG from RB26 ADP. Price's college profile shows elite explosiveness: 11% of carries for 15+ yards (leads entire class), 761 yards from scrimmage, 13 touchdowns, three kick return touchdowns on 22 returns, and 36.1 yards per kick return (NCAA-leading). Main concern: limited receiving production (never more than six catches in a season, subpar career yards per route run), though offseason reports indicate improved pass-catching ability; Stewart projects 30+ catches as lead back on good offense, offering best-of-both-worlds profile combining Kenneth Walker's explosive upside with steadier, non-boom-bust running style.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveProjection17:12
Ron Stewart projects Jeremiah Love as RB13 in ADP but believes he has upside to finish as an RB1 in points per game this season. His floor is top-15 RB in fantasy; his ceiling is top-six. Historical comparison to top-12 drafted running backs since 2012 shows his rookie-equivalent PPG would have ranked RB2-RB14 in 2025, supporting the upside case. After the first preseason game, Love showed 70% snap share and 100% of third-down routes run inside the 10-yard line, wiping away workload concerns. James Conner begins the season on IR after September 2025 surgery, positioning Love as the lead back. Recent reports show high knees and barefoot jogging, indicating a chance for week-one availability. ESPN's Mike Clay, a conservative projector who avoids overvaluing young breakout players, projects Love as RB8 in PPR ahead of Kenneth Walker, Amarian Hampton, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Chase Brown, speaking to Love's legitimacy. Love is projected for 86 targets, behind only Bejon, Christian McCaffrey, and Ashen Genty, and tied with Jamir Gibbs for fourth-most targets among running backs. With only nine projected touchdowns, the receiving game is the primary upside driver. Comparison to Breece Hall under Mike LaFleur shows Hall led all RBs with 5.3 yard ADOT as a rookie; if Love operates with positive ADOT and 86 targets over 17 games, he would crush fantasy despite limited TD upside. Cardinals project to lead NFL in pass attempts. Stewart projects Love as a potential defining running back of the season due to explosive ability, pass-catching upside, and could finish as a top-six RB in PPG from week seven onward, representing a huge steal in the third round.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeBreakout27:57
Consensus breakout pick appearing on every breakout video, but Ron Stewart is getting spooked by recent developments. Chuba Hubbard is expected to play week 1, creating split backfield concern. The Panthers have significant injuries across the offensive line, and Vegas projects the Panthers offense as 25th-best, indicating a low-scoring environment. Stewart remains higher than consensus on Brooks but no longer views him as a 'hammer awesome pick' in fantasy football despite maintaining some belief in breakout possibility.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury0:52
Josh Jacobs placed on the commissioner exempt list with serious allegations; suspension timeline highly uncertain. Ron Stewart cites historical precedent (Adrian Peterson 15 games, Greg Hardy 15, Ruben Foster 5, Kareem Hunt 5, Jabil Peppers 7) and notes the suspension could range from six games to the entire season. Stewart leans toward a full-year suspension, citing: (1) poor optics for the Packers to rush him back, (2) a court date in mid-November (week 9-10) likely delaying reinstatement, and (3) potential unreleased video evidence that could end his tenure with the team. Stewart moved Jacobs to pick 150 tier (handcuff/upside plays) in home leagues with limited bench spots.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveBreakout25:00
Year-two running back positioned as a league-winner candidate if he improves as a rusher while maintaining elite passing-game production. Harvey was drafted RB34 in ADP, 12 spots higher than consensus, and is a target in Ron Stewart's draft guide. As a rookie, he played all 16 games with 560 rushing yards and six touchdowns but led with 88 catches for 742 yards, establishing him as one of the league's best pass-catching running backs: third-most receiving touchdowns, sixth-best passer rating when targeted, sixth-most receiving first downs, eighth-most receptions and receiving yards, and 12th-best yards per route run among RBs. However, he was bottom-10 in rushing success rate, rushing yards over expected, stuff rate, and yards per carry. Year-one-to-year-two rushing improvement is common among elite backs—Christian McCaffrey improved from 3.7 to 5.0 yards per carry, Joe Mixon from 3.5 to 4.9, and Levon Bell from 3.5 to 4.7. If Harvey reaches even league-average rushing efficiency while keeping his receiving ceiling, he becomes a legitimate league winner. Handpicked by Sean Payton in the second round, he already showed preseason upside on wheel routes and is attached to the best offensive line in the league. Payton's track record of maximizing crowded backfields supports this projection: RB12 in points per game for 2026.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
PositiveBreakout27:40
Honorable mention breakout candidate already performing at RB2 in points per game last year. Ron Stewart is 'betting everything on this season' and believes Henderson can finish as a breakout running back, though notes the challenge that his breakout definition (top 12) is difficult given he was already RB2 last year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement, Omron. And a lot of people need to see it to believe it when it
0:06comes to fantasy football. And that's a great way to miss out on the league winners and breakouts. Last year, if you
0:11look at the top 24 running backs in points per game, two of the top 12 finished as RB1's for the first time in
0:17their careers, and seven of the top 24 finished as RB2s for the first time in their career. When we play fantasy
0:24football, we have to have some imagination. So, today we are going to dream big and give you the seven running backs you need to draft before they
0:32break out in 2026. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and the first running back we're
0:38going to talk about is Marshon Lloyd. He is the man of the hour, but I do promise I can go back in the logs of this Google
0:44document and show you that Marshon Lloyd was going to be on this list regardless.
0:49But, of course, we have the big news.
0:52Josh Jacobs gets placed on the commissionerexempt list today. And I wanted to give you guys an updated outlook as it pertains to Marshawn Lloyd
1:00at the top here. Now, don't close out of this video once we're done talking about Marshon Lloyd because I have six more
1:05running backs we're going to talk about in depth. But Marshon Lloyd moves up to my 702 as my RB30. Now, when we talk
1:11about at the top breakout running backs, Marshon Lloyd, not so much a guy who's going to break into the top 12 for the
1:17first time, but these first running backs we're going to talk about are the RBs I think can finish inside the top 24
1:23for the first time in their careers.
1:26Now, let's break down the Josh Jacobs incident. At the top, of course, we don't condone any of the actions Josh Jacobs took. These are very serious
1:36allegations and we are covering it from the angle less of the human and the empathetic side of things and more of
1:45fantasy football drafts are happening this week. How should we be adjusting?
1:50And when it comes to Josh Jacobs, a lot is up in the air. My gut feeling though is there's probably a video that may or
1:59may not be getting released. And I think that this is the NFL guarding against that. We have a few examples throughout
2:06history from Connor Allen here showing that we have Adrien Peterson missing 15 games, Greg Cardi 15, Ruben Foster five, Kareem Hunt five, and Jabil Peppers
2:15seven. This could go anywhere from Josh Jacobs getting taken off of the exempt list before week one and him playing. He could stay for four to six
2:25weeks and then play. Any games he misses on the exempt list goes towards his suspension. So, if they do decide, okay,
2:32six game suspension, he's been on the list for 4 weeks, he serves another two weeks, and then he's good to go. It's
2:38also worth noting that he has a court date in mid- November. So, they might wait all the way until week 9 or 10 and
2:44then see what happens in court and go goes from there. A lot is up in the air here. Anybody telling you they have the
2:50answers, they don't. What I will say and how I'm treating this is this could be anywhere from six games to the whole
2:56year and I lean on the side of it being more towards the whole year. One, it's not a great look for the Packers to rush
3:03him back on the field with all of this up in the air. Two, I think because of the court date happening in week 9 or
3:0910, there's probably not a rush to get him back on the field until then. And then also, if there is the dreaded video
3:17aspect of this entire thing, this could be it for Josh Jacobs on the Packers in general. So, especially in a home league
3:24where you might only have six or seven bench spots, I'm not dying to roster Josh Jacobs on my team. I moved him way
3:32down the rankings around pick 150 in like the Zack Charbanet, Tank Bsby, Tyler Alier, either handcuff or like weird upside scenario plays. Now, let's
3:44talk about Marshon Lloyd and put some shine on a running back who has been waiting for the spotlight a long time.
3:50If you remember thinking back to I believe it was the 2020 I think it was actually the 2024 draft class with
3:56Jonathan Brooks that he was in. He was a very fun prospect. He was a round three pick out of USC. He started at South
4:06Carolina. He had a big-time injury there. And this is what he looks like in my prospect model. He comes out as a
4:13silver round three running back. That's not super strong, but there was a lot to like here. 220 pounds, 446, 40-yard dash. His two closest comparables are
4:23Chase Brown, which is a great comp, and then Damen Pierce, not so great, but Damen Pierce did have one year on the
4:28Texans where he was amazing. This is a blackbox prospect. Doesn't have a ton of receiving upside, but the Packers have never really featured the running back
4:37in the receiving game. Not at least since Aaron Jones. I think Marshon Lloyd is really more of like a one forone
4:42replacement to Josh Jacobs and what his skill set offers. I actually went digging back through my writeup for the 2024 Dynasty rookie draft season among
4:52the top five drafted running backs that year. I believe that that was Jonathan Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Cororm, Jaylen Wright, and Marshon Lloyd. He led
5:01that entire group in runs of 15 plus yards. He also had the third best mistackles force per touch among that group. So, he was very much an explosive
5:09runner, a shifty runner, not a great pass catcher, but in this offense, we're not really looking for that. This is a
5:16Green Bay Packers offense that is always going to score points, feature the running back, and Marshon Lloyd now gets vaulted to the top of this depth chart.
5:24The tricky part is factoring in at what point does Josh Jacobs return? Because with Marshon Lloyd, he could be in any
5:31game that Josh Jacobs doesn't play.
5:33Marshon Lloyd could be a top 15 option in any given week. Right? I'm just trying to think through, okay, we have
5:40week one where Marshon Lloyd gets 18 touches and he has like a 15 point PPR game. All of a sudden, this is a guy
5:46you're ranking as like the 18th best running back in fantasy in week two. And there's no guarantee Josh Jacobs comes back. So, I think RB30 where I have him
5:55is actually a little bit low. I have him as a seventh round target here and I'm just really excited for Lloyd. The
6:00downside is, of course, that Josh Jacobs comes back way before expected or that Marshon Lloyd, a guy who heading into year three has six career carries due to
6:11injuries. He did meet with a specialist in the offseason. All reports is that he's been crushing it in camp. And I
6:16think it also speaks volumes that the Packers haven't gone out and traded for anybody more than Caleb Johnson, a yes, sure, a round three pick last year, but
6:25somebody who clearly looks like a bust at this point in his NFL career. I think it's wheels all the way up for Marshon
6:31Lloyd and a top 24 finish is very much in his range of outcomes. I'll say as well, my rankings are always up to date.
6:38I updated the whole thing for the Josh Jacobs saga. We moved around Josh Jacobs, Marshon Lloyd, we moved around even Chris Brooks. Caleb Johnson, by the
6:47way, I'm not really drafting uh he's got he's a guy who's more speculative. I think that Chris Brooks is probably ahead of him on the depth chart. And
6:54then I think this is a big boost for the passing game. We've been drafting a lot of Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, Jordan
6:58Love, uh even Matthew Golden and Tucker Craft, I think, get a big boost here where I've been hinting I think that
7:03this is going to be a team that is going to lean more into the passing game than they have in the last two years. And
7:09this update on Josh Jacobs would signal to that everything is updated and ready to roll. If you have a draft coming up
7:17here, check out the basementdraftguide.com. I'll have links in the description and the comment section down below. I update it every morning. I update it as soon as news
7:24like this hits. And of course, you get my top 200, my target rounds, player notes, PPR, half PPR, superflex, the whole thing. It's all in there. The
7:32basementdraftguide.com. Make sure you check it out. Now, the rest of this video, let's talk about Basil Tutin. And like I said, the first few running backs
7:40we talk about are more so the guys I think can finish inside the top 24 for the first time in their careers. Basil
7:47Tutin being one of those. Now, of course, he's getting drafted as the RB24. He's my RB21 as a big-time target, but I think that he can not only finish
7:55as an RB2, but a high-end RB2, right? If he finishes as the RB 13 or 14 in points per game, he is a very big hit. And this
8:02is somebody who was outside of the top 50 running backs in points per game last year, this would be a true breakout. If
8:08he could break into the top 20 running backs in points per game, and you're going to see a lot of running backs from
8:14this 2025 draft class on this list. We know from Ryan Heath's research that the biggest breakout year for running backs is going from year 1 to year two. You
8:23can see year 1 to year two is where peak production most of the time happens at running back. And I want to be targeting
8:30this 2025 class because it is one of the strongest we've seen. In my database since ' 07, the 2025 draft class was
8:37tied for the third best out of 19 classes in my research. It was super stacked, right? Of course, you not only
8:44had Genty at the top, but then you also had Amarian Hampton. You had Quinn Seawn Judkins, Trevian Henderson. You even had
8:50R.J. Harvey, and you had on top of that Caleb Johnson who just gets traded to, of course, the Packers, who didn't turn
8:59out to be a great pro, but that's a lot of running backs getting drafted inside of the top 100 picks. And then even
9:04Basil Tutin is the strongest running back prospect in my model to not get drafted inside of the top three rounds.
9:10him and Scatabo are both at the top of that list, which is pretty crazy that it not only had a ton of running backs get
9:16drafted early, but the ones who fell to the fourth round and the fifth round were some of the strongest we've ever
9:21seen. Of course, to and when you put him into the best comparable players in my database, his comps come out with a
9:30pretty crazy bunch of names. It is Bryce Love, if you remember him, he was a uh injury medical guy that never ended up
9:37panning out. Uh but he was a very fun player. And then Jir Gibbs and Devon Achan. I'm not saying that Toutin is
9:42going to be the next Achan or Jamir Gibbs, but that's the kind of player we are working with and it when it comes to
9:47prospect pedigree in terms of his production, his receiving, his efficiency, and then his 5'9, 206 pound frame with a 4340. This is a very
9:56exciting player heading into year two that can really take the next step in a good offense that should score points.
10:02And then on top of that, you have the screen game from Liam Cohen. This is what made Bucky Irving so special in his
10:08rookie year. It's what made Travis ETN one of the best later round running back picks last year. Last year there were
10:14four running backs who had 40 or more PPR points on design targets. So mostly the screen game. It is Bjon Robinson,
10:20McAffrey, Jamir Gibbs, and Travis ETN. I think we see Basil Tutin take over that role. Basil Tuin a lot of his explosive
10:27run rate metrics, a lot of his efficiency metrics don't look great because he was actually used in a short yardage role last year, which is the
10:34biggest concern with Chris Rodriguez.
10:36But I think that Basil Tuan has the short yardage area stuff almost on lock.
10:41Last year he was seventh in success rate in terms of short yardage attempts, second in stuffed rate, first in percentage of runs converted into a
10:48touchdown or first down. Chris Rodriguez was good in this department, but so was Basil Tuan. I think that Tuin is going
10:54to be a asset in the screen game and then the preferred goal line back. And if he can have those two options in this
11:01offense, he can easily finish as a high-end RB2 attached to Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence. Our next breakout running back, I think, can finish in the
11:10top 24 for the first time, is rookie Jadarian Price. So, I keep inching up in my rankings. I am very excited about
11:18Jadariian Price. We've been drafting him all off seasonason. He's starting to get some steam. We're only seven spots ahead of Consensus, but we are four running
11:25back spots ahead of the consensus ADP here. And I just think that it's all out in front of him. I I can't get over the
11:33lack of excitement for Jadarian Price.
11:35It's of course started to trickle in here, but this is somebody who is a firstround running back pick on the Seahawks who are the 10th best offensive
11:42line by established the runs rankings and then the 10th highest implied point total by Vegas. So we're talking fringe top 10 offense, fringe top 10 offensive
11:51line from Graham Barfield. After week one in the preseason, they essentially shut down Jarien Price, saying that Mike McDonald and John Schneider have seen
11:59enough of Price's speed, decisiveness, and cutting into outside zone run gaps in his pass catching to know Price is too valuable. So, they've completely
12:06shut him down. On top of that, you have Emanuel Wilson starting the season on IR. You have Zack Charban coming off the
12:12ACL tear. So, it is Jadenarian Price versus George Hani early on in the season. And we think back to Clyde Edwards Aair, similar idea. 32nd overall
12:20pick to the reigning Super Bowl champion. He ended up busting at his one-two turn pick price, but he hit 13.5 points per game, which if you got that
12:29out of the RB26 and ADP, that's a hit in that range and would be a fine RB2. Now, why I like Jaren Price on top of the
12:37situational factors is just that he is this really fun, what I'm calling like a mystery box pro uh profile as it
12:44pertains to being a prospect. Jeremiah Love is in the same room as him his entire career. His first year there as a
12:49freshman, he has a devastating injury.
12:52Then after that, he sticks it out. He doesn't chase NIL money elsewhere. And he gets rewarded with 600 plus yards from scrimmage last year, 10 plus
13:00touchdowns, and was legitimately the reason that Jeremiah Love, a special talent, didn't win the Heisman last year, because Jadarian Price really
13:09carved out a role on this team, getting 761 yards from scrimmage to be exact, 13 touchdowns, and he's explosive. He leads
13:17the entire class in runs of 15 plus yards in terms of run rate. 11% of his carries go for 15 or more yards. He had
13:23three kick return touchdowns in his career on just 22 kick returns. He also led the NCAA with 36.1 yards per kick
13:30return. Now, why does that matter? It just means that we need to take whatever touches Darien Price could earn behind Jeremiah Love at face value. He is
13:39explosive between the tackles on cake returns, the whole nine yards. Now, the biggest drawback as it pertains to Jadarian Price is that he never had more
13:49than six catches in a single season. He had a subc career 1 yards per out run. I will say he did have 50 plus catches in
13:55his final two years of high school. You can take that for whatever you want. And they have had a ton of offseason quotes
14:01saying that his pass catching ability has been great. Now, I don't think that he's going to have the Kenneth Gainwell 70 plus catch season, but I think that
14:07he can give you 30 plus catches and pay off at his ADP as the lead back on a good offense. Zack Charbanet might not
14:15be the same guy. And if Jaren Price is talented and not the same type of boom bust runner as Kenneth Walker, they
14:21might prefer him downto with some steadiness and then also offer the explosive upside of a Kenneth Walker.
14:28Kind of giving you the best of both worlds. So, I'm very excited about Jaren Price. He is somebody I think can break
14:33out in a big way this year. And then our last darkhorse to finish inside the top 24 is Bill Krosky Mary. He's my RB33. We
14:42are 21 spots higher than consensus and he's someone I haven't really gotten to talk about much this offseason and I'm really starting to come around on Bill
14:51Crosky Merritt. Last year he was of course almost a meme in a way. Every video in late August was hyping him up.
14:57Then they trade away Brian Robinson to the 49ers and the steam just kept getting up and going and going and going
15:03and then he kind of disappointed those lofty expectations. But if we zoom out and we say, okay, Jayen Daniels gets hurt, the offense falls apart and this
15:10is a seventhround rookie running back.
15:13He led Washington in touches, yards from scrimmage and touchdowns as a seventh round rookie. His 4.6 yards per carry was 16th. His success rate, 40.6% was
15:2218th. and he had a run of 10 or more yards on 12% of his attempts, the 10th best rate in the NFL. He was a very good
15:28between the tackles rusher. The issue though was the receiving upside, just nine catches last year, but there's a chance that changes heading into 2026.
15:37We have some reports from Ben Standig.
15:39Ben Standig is the top-of-the-line guy as it pertains to covering Washington.
15:45He is one of the most accurate beat reporters out there. He said that Bill's pass blocking has improved enough that he should see some snaps on passing
15:52downs. And this is a very strong positive for Bill as the RB1 on this team. You also have this report uh from
15:59Ben Standig kind of following up on this. Yes, he picked up an injury, but Zay Denani reports that Standig has him
16:06as the lead back still. And then also the track record of Ben Standig is that in 2022 he called the Brian Robinson
16:13breakout over the incumbent of Antonio Gibson that season. And that was a huge swing point of that fantasy football season. Ben Standig is all over it. He
16:22is extremely tapped into Washington and he believes that the RB1 is Bill Crosky Merritt with Bill Crosky Merritt having the upside to play on passing down. So
16:30if he can have the lead back role and then also mix in in a similar way to Jadarian Price having 30 plus catches,
16:36he would be a big hit in this range.
16:38Yes, the Laramie Tonsil injury is devastating for this team, but still the 22nd ranked offensive line by established to run. That's not terrible.
16:47It's not great, but it's not terrible.
16:49And then they are still projected for the 15th most points by Vegas. So, we're talking around league average O line and
16:55league average offensive environment.
16:57Attacha David Blau who should run more outside zone. Bill led the entire NFL last year in yards per carry on outside
17:05zone runs and David Blau has already said that he is going to commit to more of that this season. So, a lot of
17:10exciting things here for Bill Crosky Merritt, who had 800 plus yards from scrimmage as a seventh round rookie to take a step ahead as a year 2 breakout
17:19this season. Then we're going to move over to guys that I think can finish as RB1's in points per game for the first
17:24time in their career. So, top 12 in points per game. Not the craziest call with Jeremiah Love. He's getting drafted as the RB13. He's my RB-13, but I do
17:32think he has upside to be an RB1 this season. If we just zoom out for a second and we look at running backs drafted
17:37inside of the top 12 since Trent Richardson in 2012, we have this list of nine other running backs and their point
17:46per game output as rookies and where they would have finished in 2025. Saquon would have been the RB2. Zeke would have
17:52been the RB3. Fornet RB7, Richardson RB7, Gibbs RB9, Gurley off the ACL RB9, Bjon RB14, Jensy RB14, Christian McCaffrey RB14. And we are drafting
18:03Jeremiah Love as the RB13. His floor is top 15 running back in fantasy. His ceiling is top six. I really do believe that
18:14when it comes to Jeremiah Love, this is somebody that if we remember here after that first preseason game, everybody was going crazy. He had a 70% snap share. He
18:23had 100% of the third downs routes run inside the 10 work. All of the workload concerns were wiped away. And then of
18:31course he got banged up. But all things considered, things are looking very positive for week one. Here this is from Jeff Mueller showing that he was doing
18:39high knees and barefoot jogging saying that there is a chance for week one. And then one hour ago because James Connor
18:46begins the season on IR. He said figured this would be the case for James Conor who still wasn't ready to practice
18:51despite surgery in September of 2025.
18:53We'll have to track Arizona's moves at running back, but so far it sure seems like Jeremiah Love has a shot at being
18:59active in week one. Now, it might be a slow ramp up week one. It might be a clear 50-50 split and a little bit
19:06frustrating early on, but this could be somebody who crushes down the stretch as a top six running back in points per
19:12game from week seven on this season. And that would be a huge steal in the third round. I'm buying the injury discount
19:20and he projects really well. Now, I bring this up because Mike Clay is somebody that, stay with me here for a second, has Roma
19:28Dunes over Luther Burton. He also has Randre Stevenson over Trevian Henderson.
19:33Why I bring that up is that he is the ESPN projector and he is very much conservative as it pertains to young
19:40breakout players. He is not trying to be ahead of the curve. He is trying to stay median. He is not trying to project
19:46anything crazy. And even with that, he has Jeremiah Love as his RBA in PPR ahead of Kenneth Walker, Amarian Hampton, Dererick Henry, Saquon Barkley,
19:56and Chase Brown. I am not drafting him as the RB8. I'm not drafting over those guys. I am just saying that that speaks
20:03volumes that a very conservative anti- young breakout player projector has Jeremiah Love this high. And most of the reason is that 86 target number that is
20:15behind only Bejon, Christian McAffrey, and Ashen Genty. It is tied with Jamir Gibbs for the fourth most targets in his projections at the running back
20:22position. Only nine touchdowns, but it is the receiving game. And we've already seen Michael Flor when he was the offensive coordinator for the Jets. Bree
20:30Hall through six weeks as a rookie before tearing his ACL was the RB6 in points per game. He had 30 targets
20:36through six games, really ramping him up in the receiving game. And we could see that usage for Jeremiah Love. Now, we
20:42talked about it with Ben Gretch, but the RB airs thing is huge. We don't want, as much as we like the PPR scam, dump off
20:49stuff, if we can get usage down the field, that's a big deal. Bree Hall is a rookie with Mike Laflur, led all running
20:56backs in the NFL with a 5.3 yard a dot, which is absurd. Last year, McAffrey led all running backs with an A dot around
21:03three yards. If we could see Jeremiah Love operating with a positive ADOT downfield, getting 86 targets over a 17game sample, he would absolutely crush
21:14in fantasy despite the lack of touchdown upside in this Cardinals offense. Again, he is projected as the RB8 here without even hitting double-digit touchdowns.
21:22Jeremiah Love has a really high ceiling due to his explosive ability, his pass catching upside, and this is a team that
21:28projects to lead the NFL in pass attempts this year, even if that comes back from their crazy 2025 pace. So, all
21:36things considered, I think Jeremiah Love could be one of the defining running backs of the season. Then, we'll get a little bit deeper here and we will talk
21:44about Bucky Irving. This one takes a little bit more imagination. He's my RB20. He's consensus RB21. So, I'm higher positionally, but I do have him
21:54as more of an early fifth round pick than the 411 that Consensus has Bucky Irving at. But I am starting to really
22:01come around on Bucky Irving where we have this from Adam Levitan kind of outlining why that is. Over the last month, he has definitely had some more
22:09positive vibes around him. He was a fullgo day one of camp. He has sustained health the entire time. Shawn Tucker has
22:16been on the outs with this team and you could pin a lot of the 2025 stuff with Bucky Irving on an injury and weird off
22:22the- field almost like mental health stuff that was going on, but he seems 100% ready to go. Baker Mayfield is praising him here and I think he's going
22:29to be the RB1 on a team that's going to bounce back in a major way. This is a team that had a lot of offensive line
22:35injuries last year. Baker got hurt.
22:37Bucky was of course banged up. Mike Evans banged up. Godwin banged up. Even Amecha Ibuka banged up. and the entire offense took a step back during the
22:44second half of the season when Baker Mayfield was in MVP conversations through six or so weeks and then everything fell apart for the
22:51Buccaneers, but all of those guys are getting healthy. The offensive line on established the run ranks third in the entire NFL, which is huge. And I think
22:58that Buck Irving can really take a step forward here heading into year three as a year three breakout candidate that can
23:05finally break through as an RB1 in points per game for the first time in his career. That's where he was getting
23:10drafted last season as well as a post hype sleeper candidate here. Now, the biggest thing to note here is the offensive coordinator switch. We get
23:19Zack Robinson who comes from the Falcons. Of course, you can't really give him much credit for the bees on Robinson stuff, but from Ryan Heath,
23:26Zack Robinson does a lot of during snap motion rate. I think that's going to help the offense a ton. where we see
23:32here Baker Mayfield has the second largest increase in adjusted net yards per attempt on during snap motion which is a big deal and then of course Zack
23:40Robinson used a lot of screen game usage as it pertains to Bejon Robinson in this offense. Now yes Shawn Tucker didn't get
23:50cut today but he did take a pay cut on his 3.5 million tender. He goes down to I think 2.5 million. Essentially, he
23:58took a pay cut to stay on the team and not have to go elsewhere. I think that at least speaks that he is firmly the
24:04RB3 on the depth chart and probably not a real factor unless of one of Kenneth Gainwell or Bucky Irving get hurt. Now,
24:10of course, the elephant in the room is Kenneth Gainwell. He had 70 plus receptions last year, but Bucky Irving has been battling it out with Rashad
24:17White his entire career and still finishing inside the top 24. I think he could take that next step forward this season, even with Kenneth Gainwell
24:24taking away some of the passing down work, as long as Bucky Irving can work on the goal line. And I think that
24:29because of the anti-Shan Tucker reports and that Shawn Tucker is taking a pay cut, I think Bucky Irving will be relied
24:35on in the red zone and in close in this offense that I think can really bounce back. Now, similar to Bill Crosky
24:41Merritt, we have a dark horse to finish inside the top 12. And he's really only a dark horse to finish inside the top 12
24:47because he already finished inside the top 24 last year as an RB2. And yet we have a year 2 running back getting
24:53disrespected in RJ Harvey getting drafted as the RB34. I'm 12 spots higher than consensus and he is a target for me
25:00in the draft guide. First up, we have a year 2 running back attached to Shawn Payeyton. Shawn Payeyton, of course, it
25:07hasn't been great since coming to Denver, but before that, we're talking Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Reggie Bush, even Darren Sprouls was the RB7 once
25:15upon a time, and we could see that here with RJ Harvey, a guy that he's really been compared to. But I think the
25:21blueprint is 06,07, and 08 Reggie Bush.
25:24If we look at his usage from those years, it was mainly receiving, right?
25:29We see his rookie year. He actually played 16 games and had 560 rushing yards, six touchdowns, but he had 88 catches for 742 yards. And then even
25:39after that, it was a lot of the same where he averaged about five plus receptions per game. And then somewhere in the range of 10 to 13 rush attempts
25:46per game. And I think we could see a similar role for RJ Harvey. This is somebody who was one of the league's
25:52best passcatching running backs last year. As a receiver, he had among running backs third most receiving touchdowns, sixth best passer rating
25:59when targeted, sixth most receiving first downs, eighth most receptions, eighth most receiving yards, and the 12th best yards per out run. Now, of
26:05course, as a rusher, he was bottom 10 in all of these success rate, rushing yards over expected, stuff rate, yards per
26:12carry, all of that. But if there was ever a time for RJ Harvey to become even a league average rusher of the football,
26:19it would be from year 1 to year two where we see running backs make the most strides. We know McAffrey in his rookie
26:26year went from 3.7 yards per carry to five. Mixon 3.5 to 4.9, Levon Bell 3.5 to 4.7. We're cherry-picking here, but
26:34it wouldn't be out of the range of outcomes for RJ Harvey to take a big step forward in year two as a rusher,
26:40maintain the big passing game ceiling, and become a legitimate league winner.
26:44Attached to Shawn Payeyton, attached to Bon Knicks, who checks down the ball a ton, and attached to the best offensive line in the league. Of course, JK
26:51Dobbins is there. Of course, Jonah Coleman is there. But Shawn Peyton has made a living of having crowded backfields where multiple guys can pay
26:58off. And I think R.J. Harvey, a guy that he handpicked in the second round, already did some fun stuff in the
27:02preseason where he sent him on a wheel route and scored a touchdown. This could be one of the focal points of this
27:07offense in addition to Jaylen Wadd and end up as like the RB12 in points per game this year and it wouldn't shock me
27:13at all. So RJ Harvey is our seventh running back you need to draft before they break out. But I'll also give some
27:19honorable mentions. Now, we're at the part of the summer where I don't want to keep talking about the same players, but
27:23these are guys who just barely missed this list of seven players, honestly, I just wanted to talk about that I think
27:28have a good chance to break out this year. Cam Scatabo, the face and the focal point of our dead zone running
27:35back research. He's a great breakout candidate this year, but technically on a perame basis last year, he was an RB1.
27:40He just got hurt. Uh Trevon Henderson, we talked about him on the players. I am betting everything on this season. And I
27:46think that he can finish as a breakout running back, but he's tricky. Like RJ Harvey where he was already an RB2 in
27:51points per game last year. So by our definition, his breakout would be top 12. That's a little bit tough for him.
27:57And then Jonathan Brooks, he's on every single one of these breakout videos. The Cats out of the bag. I'm still higher
28:03than consensus on Jonathan Brooks, but I am starting to get a little bit spooked.
28:06Chuba Hubard's looking like he's going to play week one. The Panthers have a ton of injuries across the offensive line. And this is an offense by Vegas
28:13projections projected to be like the 25th best offense. So we're talking low scoring, bad offensive line, split backfield with Chuba Hubard. I'm still
28:21open to the possibility of the breakout, but I don't think that he is as much of a, you know, hammer awesome pick anymore
28:28in fantasy football. But of course, that's going to do it for us today.
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29:33Leave me as stones like I like frozen.
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