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VideoFrom Ron Stewart

6 Busts You’ll Regret Drafting Early in 2026

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

23 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Aug 27, 2026

Published

Thu, August 27, 2026

14

Player insights

13

Players mentioned

Topics

De'Von AchaneA.J. BrownAshton JeantyBlake CorumBrock BowersD'Andre SwiftDavid MontgomeryDerrick HenryDrake LondonJavonte WilliamsKenneth Walker IIIKyren WilliamsRashee Rice

Player analysis

Player insights

14

A.J. Brown

PositiveProjection35:24

Ron Stewart explicitly ranks A.J. Brown ahead of De'Von Achane in his overall rankings.

Ashton Jeanty

NegativeBust30:39

Ron Stewart labels Ashton Jeanty an avoid at his current ADP, arguing that major platforms are too slow to update his ranking following an ankle injury. Stewart ranks him as the RB12 rather than the RB8, noting that he is currently being drafted ahead of superior round-two options like Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Walker.

Blake Corum

PositiveUsage12:16

Ron Stewart identifies Blake Corum as a major threat to Kyren Williams' workload, noting that Sean McVay plans to feature him heavily. Corum's advanced metrics, including high EPA per snap and explosive play percentage, suggest he will be a 'stud' and a significant factor in the Rams' backfield.

Brock Bowers

PositiveProjection35:24

Ron Stewart explicitly ranks Brock Bowers ahead of De'Von Achane in his overall rankings.

D'Andre Swift

PositiveValue10:48

Ron Stewart identifies D'Andre Swift as a superior value compared to Javonte Williams at the 4-5 turn. Swift averaged 14.9 PPG last year and serves as the lead back in a high-scoring Bears offense supported by a strong offensive line.

David Montgomery

NegativeBust27:00

Ron Stewart ranks David Montgomery as the RB25, below his consensus RB23 ADP, and advises against drafting him. Stewart cites Montgomery's age (29), declining production, and lack of bellcow status due to the emergence of Roschon Johnson. Montgomery also faces a poor offensive line (27th ranked) and a capped receiving ceiling due to Woody Marks, leading Stewart to prefer D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert.

De'Von Achane

NegativeBust33:32

Ron Stewart expresses significant concern regarding Achane's injury status, noting that the team is being 'shady' about his health and that he may not reach his normal workload until week seven. Stewart advises against drafting him over locked-in top-12 running backs, ranking him 20th overall and preferring to wait until round three unless he has already secured a top wide receiver. Stewart suggests that pairing him with Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua can build a strong foundation if the manager is comfortable with the risk.

NegativeInjury33:51

Ron Stewart expresses concern over Devon Achane's injury status, noting the team's lack of transparency and the potential for a delayed return to full workload. Stewart suggests that even if Achane debuts in week three, he may not reach his normal workload until week seven.

Derrick Henry

PositiveProjection35:08

Ron Stewart ranks Derrick Henry as a 'locked and loaded' top-12 running back and a safer draft choice than De'Von Achane.

Drake London

NegativeValue0:58

Ron Stewart ranks London as the WR8, seven spots below consensus, and advises against drafting him at his mid-second-round ADP. Stewart argues London lacks separation from peers like Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, and Chris Olave, and that his 20.3 PPG ceiling projection is a 'fragile bet' based on a limited 10-game sample with Michael Penix. Concerns include Penix's health/job security, the departure of play-caller Zach Robinson, and a poor team environment, leading Stewart to prefer RBs like Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, and Devon Achane in that range.

Javonte Williams

NegativeValue8:32

Ron Stewart ranks Javonte Williams as his RB15, seven spots lower than consensus, and classifies him as a 'dead zone' back to avoid. While projecting 14.3 PPG, Stewart argues Williams lacks the receiving upside (0.4 YPRR last year) needed to break the 15 PPG ceiling, especially with target competition from Jaden Blue and Hunter Luepke.

Kenneth Walker III

PositiveProjection35:08

Ron Stewart ranks Kenneth Walker as a 'locked and loaded' top-12 running back and a safer draft choice than De'Von Achane.

Kyren Williams

NegativeBust7:16

Ron Stewart ranks Williams as the RB16, below his 3.07 consensus ADP, labeling him a 'dead zone' back and a 'small hit, big miss' pick. Stewart argues that drafting Williams in the early rounds limits upside due to his lack of receiving usage and the emergence of Blake Corum, who is expected to marginalize Williams' workload. Stewart views him as a player to avoid in favor of higher-ceiling options.

Rashee Rice

NegativeBust12:07

Ron Stewart ranks Rice as the WR31, significantly lower than his consensus WR11 ADP, and advises against drafting him. Concerns include a lingering knee injury, unsustainable YAC-dependent efficiency (5.1 aDOT), and a potential shift in the Chiefs' offensive scheme. Stewart notes the Chiefs' offense has historically performed better when Rice is off the field and warns that the 'PPR scam' narrative is unsustainable for a fourth consecutive year.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

219

0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm running and it goes without saying, but the early rounds of your fantasy football draft are the most

0:06important. Not only because you can get absolute studs like Christian McCaffrey or JSN or Jonathan Taylor last year, but you also could have sunk your ship

0:15before you even got started and drafted players like Ashton Jeanty, Saquon Barkley, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, Bucky Irving. All of these players who

0:23completely derailed your fantasy football season. So, it is very important that we go through these early rounds with a fine-tooth comb and decide

0:32who are the players we are avoiding in the early rounds of drafts. And that's why today, I am going to give you these

0:38six busts you'll regret drafting inside of the first five rounds of your drafts this season. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new.

0:46Now, of course, disclaimer up top.

0:47Players getting drafted in the early rounds are usually good players on good teams and they're there for a reason.

0:52But at a certain point, I can only keep on gassing up every single player, every single breakout candidate. At a certain

0:58point, I got to give you the players that I'm not really drafting. So, we are going to start here with Drake London as an avoid, of

1:05course. In the draft guide, you can see this exact view where you have my ranking. He's my 209 as the wide

1:11receiver eight. I am seven spots lower than consensus here, which is just an average of the Sleeper ADP, the ESPN default ranking that's already in the

1:19app that your league mates are drafting off of, and then the Yahoo expert consensus rankings that your league mates will be drafting off of.

1:26I am minimum three spots lower than everybody else. All of these sites have him as 206 or above, and the main issue

1:34for me is of course price. And that is going to be the theme of today's video because it's not that I hate players,

1:39right? Drake London, obviously an amazing player. It's the price. In that second round area, we keep talking about it, but once Jefferson and Lamb are off

1:46the board, I want to spam those running backs from Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Amari and Hampton, Derrick Henry, Devon Achane. Until all of those

1:56guys are off the board, Drake London goes in a range where you are passing up on those running backs to take him and I

2:02just don't see him separating from the tier of Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Chris Olave, all of these other talented receivers at the 2-3 turn. Now, when we

2:11look at Drake London, he is a high floor player. We did the legendary wide receiver research where we talked about the wide receivers with

2:1820 plus point per game upside. We found Drake London to be a high floor player.

2:22Even though his ceiling projection is 20.3, it was a very small jump from his 16.3 median projected points per game because he has a high target share in an

2:32offense that should pass the ball a bit, but they're not going to score a ton of points. And that's where I get squeamish

2:37on Drake London. When you are taking him at the 202 by consensus, he's going off the board 205 on Sleeper, 202 on ESPN,

2:45middle of the second on Yahoo, and it's just a little bit fragile. When we are drafting for floor with Drake London,

2:50we want a better situation than the Falcons offense, which has been been getting nothing but terrible reviews the entire summer. On the bottom here from

2:59Underdog NFL, Tu Tu's play has made it impossible to be named the starting quarterback. And really what we are clinging on to here

3:06with Drake London is a 10-game sample with Michael Penix, which is exciting.

3:10Don't get me wrong. This is from Pat Thorman here. 21.9 points per game in his 10-game sample with Michael Penix.

3:17But again, this is a very fragile bet. A guy you are spending a mid to early second-round pick on is a 10-game sample

3:23of a guy coming off an ACL that we aren't sure is good at football, that we aren't sure isn't going to get pulled

3:29for Tu at some point, or Tu is going to be in there and maybe bring this down to his average of 14 points per game he's

3:34had since 2024 without Michael Penix.

3:36You also have the third-string quarterback getting buzz and Jack Strand. There's just so much going on here. Also, the coach that has kind of

3:43unlocked Drake London was Zach Robinson, who's now in Tampa Bay, moving Drake London from an outside receiver to an inside-outside, Z slot, flanker type of

3:53focal point in the offense. Not that he's not going to be a focal point anymore, but it's something to note that

3:58he is getting a new play caller. The quarterback situation is rough. And then also, the team environment is rough.

4:04This is a team that everybody is down on. The Jets, the Browns, the Dolphins, the Cardinals.

4:11The Falcons are at a spot where they're probably in that same range of bottom feeders. This is a team that has lost

4:16James Pierce for a certain amount of games. They've lost their edge rusher Jaylon Walker as well to a torn ACL.

4:21This is a team that could just completely get derailed on the entire season. So, I have him ranked next to the Olaves, the Neighbors, the Nico

4:30Collins types at the two-three turn. You have to pay up for Drake London, and I just can't get there. Uh after that, we

4:36will talk about Kyren Williams. Kyren Williams going off the board by consensus as the 3.07 as the RB15. He's my RB16, so I'm not even that far away.

4:45I just have him moved down behind the wide receivers in this range. He is the epitome of trying to hit a single with

4:53an early round pick. And something that a guy like Ben Gretch has coined being a small hit, big miss kind of pick. Where

4:59you have to think through when you are drafting a player in the third round, what do I win when I win, and what do I

5:05lose when I lose? He could sink your team in the third round. He could be the guy that you draft and you miss out on

5:10next year's JSN. Or, he could be the guy that ends up being the RB 10, 11, 12 as like a 15, 16 point per

5:20game scorer, and that's what you're looking at. It's just the trade-off isn't for me. This is where I believe the dead zone actually starts. We've

5:27done videos on this this off season talking about rounds four, five, and six running backs. Kyren's actually pushed up into the third round. He's a fourth

5:35round running back for me along with the other dead zone running backs this year with De'Andre Swift and Cam Akers and

5:40Travis Etienne and all of those players.

5:42I would have him closer to that tier.

5:44And it shows when we look at the projected points per game across Fantasy Life, ESPN, and Sharp Football Analysis showing that where he's getting drafted,

5:53it's Chris Olave, it's DeVonta Smith, it's Josh Jacobs. Who Josh Jacobs has his off-the-field issues, but 15.1 points per game in terms of projection

5:59is super strong. Kyren is the lowest projection on this entire list from the consensus ADP of 30th overall through 43rd overall, projected to score even

6:08less than Colston Loveland at tight end.

6:10You are taking him over really good receivers in Zay Flowers and Garrett Wilson and then over a lot of breakout candidates in Tank Dell, Marvin Mims,

6:19Emeka Egbuka, Ladd McConkey, Jaylen Waddle, the breakout in Colston Loveland. So, when we're talking 33rd overall, 31st overall, anything in that

6:28range, he just seems like a pick where you are taking him simply so that you feel good about who's in your RB2 spot, and that

6:35is the pitfall of the dead zone running back. And I know he's had back-to-back seasons now of 15.8 points per game and

6:4117 points per game, but if we look at his wins above replacement over expectation, so his price-adjusted impact on your team, you have 2024, he

6:49was a second-round pick, he gave you 0.4 wins above replacement over expectation, that's fine. And then last year, 0.3.

6:54But taking him in both of those years, you missed out on Jahmyr Gibbs in 2024, Derrick Henry in 2024, JSN in 2025, Trey

7:01McBride in 2025, James Cook in 2025. All of these players, you opted for the safe floor of Kyren Williams, and you missed

7:08out on the monster hits. Now, of course, yes, you also got to sidestep the catastrophic Marvin Harrison Jr. seasons in Chris Olave and Pacheco and Etienne,

7:16but that is the beauty of fantasy football. You swing for upside. I am not playing for fourth place. I am playing

7:21for first place. All of us only have a 8.3% chance of winning a 12-man league, and Kyren Williams is a great way to not

7:29swing for the fences in the early rounds where we know the league winners are hiding. And then you also have the Blake

7:36Corum situation where there is now a running back nipping at his heels. You went from 17 points per game to 15.8,

7:42and now the projections have him back down to 13.2 and it's also because of Blake Corum here. We have this from Sean

7:48McVay from Coach Speak Index. He's a stud and he's going to be a big factor in what we're going to do this year. And

7:53then you have the advanced stats from Scott Barrett here showing that he is second in EPA per snap, first in explosive play percentage last year,

8:00second in success rate last year behind only Kyren Williams. Don't get me wrong, Kyren Williams is good at the success rate running, but Blake Corum is going

8:06to be brought in to do a lot of the work when they don't need the steady second and three conversion from Kyren

8:12Williams. And then Blake Corum fifth in yards per carry last year. So Kyren Williams is going to get continually marginalized in this offense. There is

8:19no receiving upside for him. He is essentially a dead zone back. He is the number one guy on a good offense and

8:25that is fine, but it's not somebody I'm going to take in the third round over a lot of upside swings at other positions.

8:32And same deal with Javonte Williams.

8:34I've gotten this question a bunch of why I'm low on Javonte Williams. So I thought this would be a good forum to

8:39talk about it. He is my 40th ranked player. I am seven spots lower than consensus here. And again, you can see I

8:44have him RB 15 like the rest of these sites and platforms. It is just the idea of the dead zone running back. I want

8:51the other positions in this range. Even though he is somebody when we look at the projections, 14.3 is damn good, right? Obviously Zay Flowers over him.

9:01Then Garrett Wilson, but he meaningfully out projects Tutu Atwell, McMillan, Tee Higgins, Emeka Egbuka, Ladd McConkey, Colston Loveland, all of these players,

9:08but he doesn't have the same upside as them. This is somebody that is just simply the lead back on the Cowboys,

9:13which is great.

9:15But that's what he was last year and he tapped out at 15 points per game on a team that had a ton of trips into the

9:20red zone, a ton of trips inside the 10, and then also didn't have CeeDee Lamb fully healthy and didn't have this

9:24offense humming in a way that it usually does through the air. If CeeDee Lamb reverts back to his usual self and we

9:30see all of this offense flow through the air between the two receivers, between Ryan Flournoy, between Jake Ferguson, Javonte Williams is an afterthought. And

9:40the biggest issue I have with Javonte Williams is the receiving upside. We need receiving upside to get to that next level, to break through the ceiling

9:46of 15 points per game, and I just don't think it can happen. This is really good research from J. J. Zachariason in the

9:512025 off season talking through your yards per route run, and then your rate of outproducing your expected points per game at your

10:00draft slot. And if you had less than a 0.7 yards per route run, 7.7% of the time, you would exceed your draft price

10:07by two plus points per game 7.7% of the time, exceed by four plus, and then 0% of the time exceed by six plus. So, when

10:13we're talking about ceiling and trying to hit a home run in the third round, it is very unlikely for Javonte Williams

10:18given that he was a guy who had a 0.4 yards per route run last year among all receivers, including wide receivers,

10:25including Aryan Smith, a waste of an NFL roster spot on my Jets, a rookie receiver who ran routes to do cardio.

10:33Javonte Williams among all qualified receivers had the lowest yards per target. On an efficiency basis, he was a zero in the passing game. I think

10:41they're going to get Jaden Blue more involved in the passing game, even Hunter Luepke. And then again, they have so many receiving weapons that Javonte

10:48is not going to be featured in the passing game, and he becomes a between-the-tackles grinder on a good offense, which is a good archetype, but

10:54not one I want to be targeting in the third round. Especially in running back-hungry home leagues, and when I know I can get other running backs

11:02later. At the 4-5 turn, you can get D'Andre Swift. This is a great tweet from David here showing that from weeks

11:071 through 17, Javonte was at 15.2 points per game, Swift at 14.9 points per game.

11:12He is the lead back on a Chicago Bears offense that also will score a lot of points, also has a good offensive line,

11:18and also has his backup running back in Kyle Monangai banged up right now. So, you're paying a premium for this safety

11:24in your RB2 spot, and then in the third round, it's just too rich for me. We did the dead zone running back research the

11:28other day. If any of you guys are curious, I ran Kyren Williams and Javonte Williams through the score. They qualified, right? They were

11:36both projected for 15 plus touches, both inside of a top 15 offense, but they don't hit the receiving upside we're looking for. They don't hit the previous

11:42year yards per route run we're looking for. And for that, they both come in at scores of four and four less than Travis

11:49Etienne and De'Andre Swift. That's of course not the full equation. I have them ranked ahead of Etienne and ahead of Swift, but this outlines their lack

11:57of upside when it comes to trying to break out of the dead zone. So, both of these running backs I don't plan on

12:02drafting a ton of unless if they fall to me in a wide receiver hungry league.

12:07Then we have Rashee Rice, another guy I've gotten a lot of questions on this year. Trust me, I get the upside. This

12:13is somebody where usually I would be all in on Rashee Rice. Since the bye week of his rookie year, he averages 17.6 points per game over a

12:2119 game sample, which in any given season would be like a top six wide receiver in points per game. And you're

12:27drafting him wide receiver 11 by consensus. I am five spots lower at the 31st ranked player for me. This is somebody going in the

12:35late second or the early third in a lot of places. On ESPN, he's the 16th ranked player, and I just don't plan on

12:41drafting a lot of Rashee Rice. I have Breece Hall ranked ahead. I have Jeremiah Love ranked ahead. I have Zay Flowers ranked ahead. I have DeVante

12:47Smith ranked ahead. And because of these four, I'm very rarely, if ever, going to draft Rashee Rice. Now, there's a couple

12:54of reasons why this is. First, it's the knee injury. We have some Zane Denany here. It looks like Rashee Rice is

12:58laboring in terms of change of direction still in one-on-one drills, mentioned starting and stopping and coming out of breaks. Take this kind of helps confirm

13:05that the video of Rashee Rice had an awkward gait might actually be real.

13:08Then we have a Twitter fantasy football doctor injury analyst, Jeff Mueller.

13:13Make sense, doesn't look 100% like himself here, but this is the best I've seen him move in all of the camp videos

13:18so far. I'm concerned on his YAC regressing in 2026, at least the early part. So, he doesn't look like himself.

13:23Mueller is a little bit optimistic that he could eventually return to himself, but that's always a question mark. And the reason why his yak ability matters

13:29is because that's all he has. He is a 5.1 career aDOT player, which is just absurd. Even Deebo in his prime was like

13:37an 8-yard aDOT player. This is a scam.

13:39He is essentially Wan'Dale Robinson attached to the Chiefs, and he's only been able to be efficient on the back of 8.1 yards after catch per reception, an

13:46absurd number which I just don't want to bet on coming off of injury. And then I also have some real questions about if

13:53they're going to continue to run their offense through Rashee Rice. We have over the last 3 years, this Chiefs offense has been underperforming.

14:00They've been a defensive-led unit, and it has been disappointing every single year. And this is a stat from Scott Barrett showing that when Rashee Rice is

14:07not on the field, they have been a top-six offense. With him on the field, they have been 14th. It is just not

14:15an advantageous way to run offense to spam a I'm not going to say average-level receiver, but Rashee Rice is going ahead

14:23of players that he's not better than. Garrett Wilson is a better in-real-life wide receiver than him. Rashee Rice is getting drafted off of a role. And when

14:31we get drafted off of a role, it's really difficult at receiver because at running back, I get it. Javonte Williams and Kyren Williams, two guys I don't

14:38think are very talented at running back, but their backups probably aren't better than him. I am scared about Blake Corum, don't get me wrong here, but they are

14:46the top of their depth chart. They're going to get used. That's how running back works. Only one can be on the field

14:50at a time. At wide receiver, it's different. You need to run your route, you need to get open, you need to get

14:54targeted, and you need to catch that ball. There are so many more factors when it comes to receivers, and it's why

14:59stuff like route share matters so much for guys like Jaylen Reed and Josh Downs because you have to get on the field,

15:05and then once you're on the field, you have to get targeted.

15:08It is just a more nuanced equation here.

15:12So, when we start drafting for role at wide receiver, it gets really scary because I just don't see them building the entire offense out of someone who

15:22isn't reliable off the field, someone who has had now two knee surgeries over the last two seasons. And then also they

15:28go out there and they hand pick Kenneth Walker in free agency and they call him a franchise altering player here from

15:34Pete Sweeney quoted by Josh Norris, who I think they are going to build a lot of that screen game usage out of from Ryan

15:41Heath here showing that Rashee Rice's 6.5 fantasy points per game on screens last year were nearly double the next closest receiver. Again, it is an

15:50unsustainable role in an offense that shouldn't be incentivized to keep on using him as their focal point. They are better when they don't and he just has

16:01not proved to be this guy at a reliable level for this team. So I can't get there.

16:07There's a chance he burns me in this offense attached to Patrick Mahomes. I I just don't think that they can go back

16:12to running the Rashee Rice PPR scam for the fourth year in a row when their offense hasn't looked right since 2022.

16:20Then the fifth player to avoid in the early rounds of your fantasy football draft is David Montgomery. We talked about him in the

16:26dead zone running back video. He is my 511 is my RB 25. I'm only two spots lower than consensus, but across the

16:33board he is the RB 23 by consensus, 21 by sleeper, 23 by ESPN, 22 by Yahoo. I have him below all those guys and

16:40because of that I won't be drafting him much at all. I have D'Onta Foreman ahead. I have Khalil Herbert ahead and

16:45because of that I'll be taking those running backs before I ever really get down to David Montgomery on my rankings and that's

16:52because this is a 29-year-old between the tackles grinder on the Texans and that's just a really tough sell to me because I

17:00say between the tackles grinder because there was some optimism he would be the bellcow. I don't think that that's on the table anymore as Roschon Johnson has

17:07looked really good this offseason. This is from Zane Dinani again showing that they have been used nearly evenly throughout camp. Now Roschon Johnson

17:14isn't a spectacularly talented running back, but he is a running back that is better than Dare Ogunbowale, and he is somebody that

17:22in his sophomore season of college had 80 plus receptions. He is a very skilled receiving back that could limit things, right? He's not only going to be a

17:31LeQuint Allen or Dare Ogunbowale where he comes on the field to pass block. He could come on the field and be featured

17:36in the passing game, and then all of a sudden if you are limiting the receiving ceiling of David Montgomery, we are

17:41again talking about the between the tackles grinder on the Texans who have the 27th ranked offensive line by Establish the Run. And then today, they

17:49lost one of their best offensive lineman, Braden Smith, getting carted off the field. So, the offensive line is worse.

17:54This is a team that is projected outside the top 15 in points scored. He's going to get his receiving upside capped by

17:59Woody Marks, and then he's also been steadily declining every year. Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs has been breaking out and getting better, but it went from

18:05somebody that made it so hard to feature Jahmyr Gibbs because David Montgomery was so good. He was the RB 15 Gibbs

18:12rookie year. Gibbs sophomore year, he was the RB 16. And then last year, he was the RB 32 at 9.8 points per game,

18:19completely getting outshined by Jahmyr Gibbs. Now, he's age 29. He's not a special talent. I just can't see David Montgomery crushing his ADP. He might be

18:29hitting a single, but this is isn't what I'm looking for inside of the top six rounds when the league winners are

18:34hiding in these areas. Then the last player we'll talk about is Ashton Jeanty, the man of the hour, and this is

18:40what it boils down to. I loved Ashton Jeanty early on in the season, then we kind of peeled back the curtain and was

18:44like, okay, he's kind of a volume-based player in a bad offense, similar to a Devon Achane or a Breece Hall.

18:50And then of course, he gets the ankle injury. And yes, yesterday we did the top 60 overall rankings video. Put on the tin foil hat.

18:59I have since moved him up from 27th overall to 20th overall, but I'm still lower than consensus, only four spots.

19:03But why I have him as an avoid here is these sites are going to be so slow to update for Jeanty. This is from Kyle

19:10M_FF.

19:12These are the only real changes ESPN has made in its rankings over the last 10 days. They actually moved Achane up.

19:17They only moved Jahmyr Gibbs down two spots. Essentially what I'm getting at here is Sleeper and ESPN are so slow to

19:23update their rankings that I don't think at any point in time Achane is going to get to the 20th overall pick on Sleeper

19:30ESPN. So when you go to your home league draft and everyone's drafting off of those rankings, someone's going to take Achane over one of the round two running

19:38backs, whether that is Saquon, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Devon Achane, Raheem Mostert, Derrick Henry. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody as well, but all of

19:47those running backs have to go in front of him and I think in most leagues he is going to go ahead of them, right? He's

19:52the RB8 on ESPN, the RB8 on Sleeper.

19:56He should be the RB12. There should be 11 running backs that have to go off the board ahead of him, then Achane makes

20:01sense. When we talk about draft strategy in the three and four spot, right? You take Puka Nacua, you take Ja'Marr Chase

20:06and all of a sudden you're like, "Man, I'm boxing to a zero RB build." Achane makes sense there where you can get a

20:12bell cow running back that was once upon a time going 1.09, 1.10 in a lot of high stakes leagues and you can now pair

20:18Achane with your Ja'Marr Chase, with your Puka Nacua and feel really good about your RB1 on those teams, but him being the

20:26RB12 behind all of the other round two running backs is by design. This is still somebody I am worried about. I've

20:31cooled off the tinfoil hat theory that he's going to go on IR, but they're still being very shady about this. Clint

20:37Kubiak didn't want to go into any details on the injury and just said that he's on the mend. That's all we've

20:42gotten here. De'Von Achane said that there is an average of three weeks. Week one is to be determined. That is suggests weeks one to three return dip

20:52and touches for three weeks. So that means the worst case scenario, this could be a guy who makes his debut of

20:57the season in week three and then isn't up to his normal workload until week seven.

21:03That's a big risk. Now that's obviously the doomsday scenario, but taking Achane over Derrick Henry or Amari Hampton or Kenneth Walker or any of the locked and

21:15loaded top 12 running backs just doesn't make any sense to me. And on ESPN and Sleeper, there's a very good chance that

21:21somebody in your league makes that decision and I just can't get there. I need all of those running backs to get

21:28wiped out before I'm even thinking about Achane and then I Achane and then I kind of see it, right? Of course, year two

21:32running back is going to get all the volume in the world, but drafting a player who's already banged up this early in your draft is a really

21:40tough decision and I have him 20th overall because I still have Brock Bowers and A.J. Brown ranked over him.

21:45It just comes down to did I draft a wide receiver first? If I did Puka or Ja'Marr Chase, I'll take him in round two. If

21:51not, I'll let somebody else take him and then I'll think about it in round three, but that's going to do it for us today.

21:58If you have a draft coming up, make sure to check out the basementdraftguide.com.

22:02That is where I have my tiered top 200.

22:03You can see all of the rankings we went over in this video, all of my avoids, my targets, my sleepers. And then this

22:10screenshot here where I have my rankings versus consensus, Sleeper, whatever you're drafting on, that is the ADP edge tool. I've gotten that question before

22:18of do I have the matrix of the high stakes ADP versus Sleeper and all of that? That's on the draft guide, the ADP

22:24edge tool. Make sure you check it out along with the ability to sync to your Sleeper draft live, the flex check tool,

22:30my player notes, everything you could possibly want and more is on the basementdraftguide.com. You can find it in the description and the comment

22:37section down below along with the Patreon where this is my draft day product. If you want my Underdog rankings, my weekly rankings, rest of

22:44season rankings, waiver wire article, dynasty rankings, all of that, that is on the Patreon, patreon.com/ronstewart.

22:50When you sign up on the Patreon, you get the draft guide for half off. When you sign up annually on the Patreon, you get

22:55the draft guide for free, but you're already on the Patreon or the draft guide or you can't support there.

23:02Leave a like if you enjoyed. Subscribe if you're new and I'll see you guys in the next one.

23:13>> [singing and music]

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