VideoFrom Ron Stewart

10 Must Have Wide Receivers for 2026 Fantasy Football (w/ Matt Harmon)

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56 min

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C.J. StroudChris GodwinChristian WatsonColston LovelandDaniel JonesDeVonta SmithDiontae JohnsonDontayvion WicksDrake LondonIsaiah LikelyJaxon Smith-NjigbaJayden HigginsJayden ReedJaylen Waddle

Player analysis

Player insights

C.J. Stroud

PositiveValue6:36

Matt Harmon advocates for buying the dip on CJ Stroud, defending him against recency bias following poor playoff performances. Harmon emphasizes that Stroud was a top-10 quarterback by EPA per play last season and that current market sentiment is clouding his actual talent level.

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Chris Godwin

PositiveBreakout29:09

Matt Harmon references Chris Godwin's year-three breakout as a gold standard for receiver development, encouraging fantasy managers to bet on the potential of the 2024 rookie class.

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Christian Watson

NegativeProjection55:45

Matt Harmon notes Christian Watson has high upside but carries significant injury risk, making him a difficult bet to stay on the field. While Harmon believes Watson is appropriately priced given his volatility, he highlights that Watson took a big step forward last year, recording the best season of his career despite recovering from an ACL injury.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveProjection13:24

Matt Harmon acknowledges the late-season emergence of Colston Loveland and expects him to be an awesome contributor in the offense this year, despite the injury-shortened start to his rookie campaign.

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Daniel Jones

PositiveRole27:58

Matt Harmon admits he was wrong about Daniel Jones, noting that Jones is a perfect fit for Shane Steichen's scheme, which simplifies the position by removing complex pre-snap and post-snap processing in favor of clear assignments.

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DeVonta Smith

PositiveValue38:22

Matt Harmon tiers Zay Flowers alongside DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, and Malik Nabers, suggesting Flowers is undervalued in home leagues compared to his current ADP.

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Diontae Johnson

NegativeUsage33:23

Matt Harmon cites Diontae Johnson as a negative comparison for Zay Flowers' early career, specifically highlighting Johnson's persistent issues with drops and an annoying habit of moving backward in space.

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Dontayvion Wicks

PositiveValue59:10

Matt Harmon acknowledges that some analysts prefer Dontayvion Wicks over Jaden Reed, noting that Wicks is a strong candidate to play in two-receiver sets. Harmon rated Wicks as his WR5 in the draft class.

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Drake London

NegativeProjection7:14

Matt Harmon views Drake London as having a very similar fantasy projection to Nico Collins, though he has recently moved Collins ahead of him in his rankings. Harmon also cites London as a historical example of a wide receiver who successfully took a major leap in his fourth professional season.

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Isaiah Likely

PositiveRole38:40

Matt Harmon notes that Isaiah Likely is no longer a significant target competitor for Zay Flowers in the Ravens' offense.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

PositiveBreakout27:27

Matt Harmon highlights Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a prime example of a receiver taking a significant leap in year three, noting that his breakout was fueled by improved performance and the emergence of Sam Darnold. Harmon also notes that heavy personnel usage, similar to what JSN saw last year, often spikes yards per route run.

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Jayden Higgins

PositiveInjury1:50

Matt Harmon expresses disappointment regarding Jaden Higgins' season-ending ACL injury, noting that he was a high-upside sleeper candidate who had been receiving rave reviews in camp. Harmon had been interested to see how Higgins would mesh with the offense as an off-the-line Z receiver.

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Jayden Reed

PositiveUsage30:26

Matt Harmon projects Jaden Reed to be highly productive and targeted, preferring him over Matthew Golden despite acknowledging Golden may play more snaps. Harmon expects Reed to see increased field time due to the Packers' faster, no-huddle pace, potentially making him the team's most productive receiver, even if he does not play in all two-receiver sets.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveValue63:52

Matt Harmon is bullish on Jaylen Waddle as a fourth-round pick, noting that his previous route share concerns were driven by Miami's slow pace and low play volume rather than a lack of talent. Harmon highlights that Waddle ranked 11th in yards per route run last year and expects a performance boost.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveProjection10:07

Mike Clay projects Jeremiah Love as the RB8, ranking him ahead of established veterans like Derrick Henry, Amarian Hampton, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, and Saquon Barkley, largely due to an expected 65-reception workload.

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Jordan Love

PositiveBreakout30:57

Matt Harmon views Jordan Love as a great fantasy quarterback and a dark horse candidate to finish as a top-five QB, potentially leading the NFL in touchdowns. Harmon expects the Packers to throw more this year due to a weak run-blocking unit and defensive concerns, making Love a strong target.

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Josh Downs

PositiveValue27:47

Matt Harmon views Josh Downs as a high-upside asset and a value at his current ADP in the 80s. Downs led the Colts' receiver room in first downs per route run last year despite a crowded group, and his efficiency metrics remain strong even in three or four-receiver sets. Harmon notes Downs possesses an 82% success rate versus press coverage and argues that if he plays more snaps and increases his aDOT, he has significant ceiling potential.

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Keenan Allen

NegativeRole25:09

Matt Harmon expects Keenan Allen to serve as a designated hitter in 11-personnel packages for the Bears, similar to his usage with the Chargers last year where he played a high rate of snaps at Z receiver. Allen is not expected to be a full-time player in heavier personnel groupings.

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Kyle Williams

NegativeUsage4:03

Matt Harmon uses Kyle Williams as a historical benchmark for a 'sacrificial X' receiver, noting that Williams has been the only player charted on Reception Perception with a more extreme sacrificial usage profile than Kahan Booty over the last three seasons.

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Ladd McConkey

PositiveValue26:59

Matt Harmon includes Ladd McConkey among the highly regarded 2024 rookie receivers expected to perform well. Harmon clarifies that McConkey's struggles last year were not due to being outplayed by Keenan Allen, but rather the result of poor Chargers offensive line play; McConkey was often the first read on big-breaking routes, but Justin Herbert was forced to default to Allen due to lack of pocket time.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection38:34

Matt Harmon notes that if Lamar Jackson reaches his ceiling and throws for 35+ touchdowns, Zay Flowers has the potential to lead the team in receiving touchdowns.

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Malik Nabers

PositiveValue30:02

Matt Harmon expresses high regard for Malik Nabers, identifying him as a top-tier prospect from the 2024 rookie class that fantasy managers should prioritize targeting.

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Mark Andrews

PositiveRole37:08

Matt Harmon suggests that Mark Andrews is no longer the primary target threat he once was, describing him as "toast" in the context of Zay Flowers' target competition.

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Marvin Harrison Jr.

PositiveBreakout8:42

Matt Harmon argues that Marvin Harrison Jr. is a better dynasty buy than a redraft smash, noting that while his production has been disappointing relative to draft capital, he is a misunderstood 'craftsman' receiver. Harmon believes he is poised for better production in a new offensive scheme that utilizes motion to create leverage for his in-breaking routes, mapping his route tree to strengths similar to Davante Adams. He maintains high pedigree with 80th percentile success rate versus man coverage and 77th percentile versus press.

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Matthew Golden

NegativeValue59:05

Matt Harmon views Matthew Golden as a neutral prospect who is not an outright bust but lacks evidence of being neglected by Jordan Love. Despite concerns about his target-earning ability, Harmon suggests taking a shot on him at his current Yahoo ADP of 124th overall.

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Michael Wilson

PositiveValue8:42

Matt Harmon identifies Michael Wilson as a value target, noting that potential regression has already been priced into his current draft cost. Harmon expects Wilson to play more Z receiver in the new Cardinals scheme, closer to the core, and be involved in the run game as a blocker, similar to Puka Nacua, which should improve his production.

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Nico Collins

PositiveValue0:59

Matt Harmon identifies Nico Collins as a must-draft wide receiver, ranking him 16th overall despite a Yahoo ADP of 21. Harmon expects a massive season, noting that Jaden Higgins' injury solidifies Collins' role and will lead to more targets being funneled his way. Collins has been an elite producer when healthy, ranking second in yards per route run since 2023 with elite press-man coverage beating ability. Harmon has recently moved him ahead of Drake London in his rankings, citing similar projections but higher confidence in Collins.

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Rome Odunze

PositiveValue12:46

Matt Harmon argues that Rome Odunze is currently undervalued by the ADP landscape compared to peers like Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. Odunze is a talented, detailed route runner who posted a 93rd percentile success rate versus press coverage last year and was 19th in yards per route run during the first eight weeks of last season before a foot fracture. He is currently the cheapest of the three Bears pass catchers.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveBreakout30:54

Matt Harmon views Zay Flowers as a high-upside receiver and one of the best zone-beaters in the NFL, citing a 90th percentile success rate versus zone coverage as a rookie. Harmon projects an eight-touchdown season and believes Flowers is a darkhorse candidate to lead the league in receiving yards due to his explosive talent and the Ravens' heavy personnel usage. Harmon notes Flowers has evolved from a gadgety rookie and compares his developmental path to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

577

0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm running as a one-man band. I just get into an echo chamber

0:08this time of year with takes where we're just talking about the same players over and over again. And as I look at the

0:13calendar, August 31st, it's time to get some new voices, some new perspectives. So, we brought on Matt Harmon from Reception Perception and

0:22Yahoo to talk about his must-draft wide receivers for this season. It is always a pleasure to talk with Matt. How are

0:29you doing today?

0:31>> Ron, I'm good, man. It's good to be back in the basement. And yeah, I mean, listen, you want to get out of the echo

0:36chamber, these are the things I'm I'm thinking about all year long, you know, all day long potentially, you know, routes and alignment and where these

0:44guys are set up to succeed. So, I'm happy to to kick some things around here today. I think this is a really fun year from a

0:51fantasy receiver standpoint.

0:53>> Yeah, it is interesting. We have things moving around constantly. I'll start at the top and kind of tip your hand of

0:59your first must-draft receiver with Nico Collins, who I don't want to say I I wasn't down on.

1:04I'll always be and I think you're in the same boat. I will always be a Nico Collins believer. I always will be.

1:10Uh but the way we were heading into the season with Jayden Higgins and potentially Jayden Higgins getting some of that fun off the

1:17line Z usage that I remember we talked about you know, we're doing this annually now where we talked about this when Jayden Higgins coming out of school

1:24as how these two mesh. He tears his ACL, brutal news. I'm curious how you see the shift from Kayshon Boutte coming in, if

1:32this maybe didn't even change your rankings at all. But for me, I nudged him up a little bit even with Boutte

1:36coming in. So, I'm just curious how you see those guys meshing and why you're in on Nico Collins this year.

1:40>> Yeah, it probably just sort of solidified my confidence in Nico Collins as like a mid-second-round pick. Um I have him right now as my 16th overall

1:50player. He goes 21st off the board on Yahoo drafts. And that's obviously ticked up Uh, since that has ticked up with like, you know, you moving him up

1:58with the Jayden Higgins thing. Uh Um, because I I do think Higgins, it's such a bummer, man, because he was one of

2:04these prospects that I had, you know, kind of a mixed opinion about coming into the league. I wasn't sure if he

2:09could play as an X receiver in the NFL, and then he goes to Houston, it's like, well, he's never going to play or he's

2:13almost never going to play X receiver.

2:15He won't be a full-time X cuz he's playing with Nico Collins. So, would have been a really fun theory to see how

2:19he would have played this year. So, that was a real and he was getting rave reviews from camp. Honestly, I was

2:23really high on on Jayden Higgins as a sleeper this year. Uh, so that was a bummer of an injury, but you know, I

2:29think when you sub out Higgins for Kayshon Boutte, um, I just put his profile up on Reception Perception this morning, Kayshon Boutte. And I mean, my

2:38god, Ron, like the ultimate sacrificial X receiver last year was Kayshon Boutte with the New England Patriots. The only guy who's been like more of a

2:44sacrificial X that I've charted in the last three or so seasons is his backup, Kyle Williams, on the on the site as

2:52well. So, he's not going to get that usage in Houston, which I think is actually interesting for Boutte, but nevertheless, I think it is a downgrade

3:00from Higgins to Kayshon Boutte. Um, honestly, I I I'm a big Jalen Nailor fan as well, and he's a like great

3:06late-round draft pick to me. I would I would expect Boutte or or I would hope that Boutte eventually seeds some targets to Jalen Nailor, and you know, I

3:13I don't really understand why Nailor wouldn't be the second receiver in two-receiver sets if it's like any sort of slot profiling. I mean, these guys

3:22are actually five like Kayshon Boutte's 5'11 and 203, and uh, Kayshon Jalen Nailor is like 5'11, 200 lb. Like, there's not that big of a

3:30difference between these two guys, but I still think base case we're probably subbing out Higgins for Kayshon Boutte, and that's just going to push more

3:36targets to Nico Collins, who when he's healthy, and that's been the biggest thing that's held him back over the last few seasons, he's been an elite receiver

3:44from a production standpoint. He's second since 2023 in yards per route run. Um, from a Reception Perception standpoint, he is an elite press man

3:51coverage beater. He's good at the routes that this system wants to run in breaking routes over the middle of the field. CJ Stroud I think with the last

3:58thing we remember of him is not a great image. You know, it's one of the worst playoff performances of all time that we

4:04saw. Not even just the the Patriots game, but that that that Steelers game wasn't pretty either. So, I think that's kind of clouding our memory of who

4:10Stroud is. He was a top 10 quarterback by EPA per play last year. So, overall I just think Nico when they get into these heavy personnel

4:18looks Ron, like he's going to be one of these guys that just dominates targets in in those looks because that's who

4:24he's been over the course of his career.

4:26So, I think we are looking at a pretty massive Nico Collins season here and late second round pick I mean I want to

4:32push that button every single time.

4:34>> Yeah, I've actually recently pushed him ahead of Drake London as I honestly think they're very similar projections at this point, but you've kind of laid

4:42it out. This could be the year where it all comes together. I always look I kind of bid out to buy the dip on CJ Stroud as well and

4:49we'll see what that looks like this season, but I think a good player to kind of bounce off here is with Nico

4:55Collins. I think the interesting part about him is the you talk about playing X which is actually a good conversation here of the sacrificial X gets used a

5:04little bit too much.

5:05>> Yeah.

5:06>> Kayshon Boutte is now kind of a meat shield for Nico Collins, but I think it's a good conversation that playing X

5:12receiver in the NFL if you're not Nico Collins level talent, if you're not George Pickens, it's really hard to kind of break the mold of the sacrificial X

5:20uh archetype. I almost feel like there's a higher skill gap to cross here which I would takes me to Marvin Harrison Jr.

5:26who has kind of been playing his NFL career so far on like expert level difficulty. Kyler Murray can't see over the offensive line. He's playing

5:34strictly on the outside uh pressed up against man.

5:38I'm curious now or actually we're both curious about the Cardinals offense here.

5:44How are you treating the Cardinals receivers? How are you breaking ties between the two of them? And I guess with the floor, can we can we see some

5:52of the less expert difficulty stuff for Marvin Harrison Jr.? Can we start to see him emerge as, you know, a a real-life X

5:58receiver into a fantasy football uh contributor?

6:03>> Yeah, look, I did a whole video on my channel, which I think your viewers would love if they go sub- I would love

6:07it if they would go subscribe, and I think they'd uh really like this video that I did with Jordan Rodrigue. It

6:11turned into like an hour-long conversation about why we are Cardinals curious. And the disclaimer here is that I don't really feel the need to advocate

6:19you guys to like follow me down this road, okay? Like this is my burden to bear about being curious about this

6:24Cardinals offense. And if you want like no fantasy investment in this team, totally fine. I'm not going to I'm not going to like argue for it. But I will

6:30just say I do think this offense is going to be objectively so much better for both of these wide receivers than the previous

6:38unit. You know, uh I felt really validated, and I talked about this in the video, when Michael Wilson came out and said that the reason he wasn't

6:44getting targets early on in the year was cuz he was playing the Z receiver in Drew Petzing's offense. And typically in

6:51that offense, things flow through the Y tight end, which is obviously Trey McBride, and then the X receiver, which is Marvin Harrison Jr. And it took that

6:58injury to Marv for them to move Michael Wilson into the X receiver position. And it was like, yeah, man, I I Look, I think Petzing's

7:06gotten a bit of a bad rap, but to me that was kind of just That was should have been the easy button. Like you

7:11should have used these guys more interchangeably altogether. And while yes, I do in this offense, Michael Wilson will play more Z receiver, he'll

7:18be closer to like what Michael Flo- called it like closer to the core, he'll be involved in the run game like a Puka Nacua would as a

7:24blocker, all the stuff away from the ball, the whole deal. He's going to handle a lot of that. And Marvin Harrison Jr. will be more of that X

7:31receiver outside on the line of scrimmage. The reality is like this system with the amount of motion that they use, it just blurs the lines

7:38between these two positions, where, you You Marv might be the outside on-ball receiver when the ball gets snapped, but they're going to use motion to create a

7:45lot of leverage for these in breaking routes that Marvin Harrison Jr. already runs really well. Um, one of the stats in the Cardinals Curious video that I

7:52thought was just really crazy. Uh, this was from Robert Mays of The Athletic. He noted that the Rams threw 133 passes to

7:59wide receivers in motion at the snap last year. That was the most in the league. The Cardinals threw 18.

8:0618 of those passes. The Cardinals were in spread concepts 28%, third highest in the league, 7.3% for the Rams, second lowest in the league. Like, this is a

8:16pretty fundamental shift in terms of what the offense is going to feel like schematically.

8:20And Jacoby Brissett is a functional quarterback. I think the offensive line is not as bad as it it looks. I mean,

8:25you know this uh watching Mike LaFleur's offenses with the Jets, we know what went wrong with that, okay? Like, we all

8:31we all know what what happened there. I just think LaFleur generally has the goods as a play designer, as a pass game

8:37designer.

8:39And I think this team just is not so bad that they'll be like one of the worst offenses in football because

8:45mostly I think these two receivers have both Wilson and Harrison have more to offer than what they have done from a

8:52production standpoint of late. So, I think Harrison especially fits this offense much better. He's probably a better dynasty buy than like a redraft

8:59smash or anything like that. But ultimately, I just think he you can have two thoughts in your head and I know

9:04people struggle with this that Marvin Harrison Jr. has objectively from a just bottom line perspective been disappointing relative to the fourth

9:11overall draft capital and all the hype of his name and yada yada yada. But he also hasn't been like a terrible NFL

9:16player either and I think he gets caught in that like Twitter doom loop, uh, social media doom loop at this point.

9:22So, ultimately, I I do find myself gravitating to the Cardinals receivers, especially Wilson who just like all of the potential regression that I think we

9:32know is coming has been priced into the Michael Wilson price in drafts this year.

9:36>> Yeah, he's someone I actually I I nudged up this morning just thinking through it.

9:42Uh of course everyone's factoring in the regression like you say, but even still uh Mike Clay who I like to look at for

9:47his projections cuz he's very much like conservative and I will say he's um he he's a kind of guy and it's actually a

9:53good segue for our next one of uh he has Adonai over Burden. He has uh Ramondre over Tray Von Henderson.

10:01But I also like that he has the Cardinals first in pass attempts and then also we're talking about Cardinals curious. This is a wide receiver video,

10:08but he does have Jeremiah Love as the RB8 ahead of Derrick Henry, Amari and Hampton, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker uh and Saquon Barkley. He gets there really

10:16on 65 receptions, but I think it's because there's going to be a lot of attempts to go around.

10:20>> I mean listen to the the names that we're throwing out here, man. Like Jeremiah Love is is mega talented. His

10:26backup Tyler Allgeier is like one of the best backup running backs in the NFL.

10:29Trey McBride has a case to be one of the two or or probably the top two tight end in the league. Generally, you know, no matter

10:37how you're sitting down and ranking I think he comes in either second, maybe third worst case scenario. I think Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a good

10:42starting receiver in the NFL. I think Michael Wilson we saw it last season like when he's properly utilized, when you throw him the football, he's a

10:49really good player. Like ultimately, there's just too much talent on this team for them to be like the worst ranked offense in the NFL. Uh Nate Tice

10:56and I do a show where we look at like ADP expectation kind of ranking versus offensive projections. I think Mike Clay

11:02was one of the projections that we looked at that he actually had them a little bit higher, whereas some of the

11:07other outlets may have them in like 32nd ranked offense in the NFL. I just think when you can look at these the the The

11:13problem is that like Love and McBride are super expensive, so that's why I think this could be a value offense and

11:19that's why I tend to look at these two receivers as a potential case for that value. So ultimately, I just The bottom

11:26line standpoint here is that I think these two guys are really good players in Harrison um and and Michael Wilson.

11:33Like people saying Marvin Harrison Jr.

11:34can't separate, get out of here, man.

11:36Like I've watched 2 years of this guy on film. Like he's not the most explosive guy in the NFL.

11:41He's definitely not going to sit there and run a bunch of go routes and take the top off a defense and win contested

11:46catches. He's a little bit misunderstood. He's more of like a souped-up craftsman receiver.

11:52That's kind of what Davante Adams is, especially at this point in his career.

11:54So, obviously Adams got 10 touchdowns last year. Marvin is not going to score 14 touchdowns on, you know, a low amount

11:59of targets. But, I think if you do, and I hate doing the stuff like this guy's going to be in this role, this guy's

12:05going to be in that role. But, this was one of the things we did in the video.

12:07Jordan and I looked at like Davante's route tree last year and how like it cleanly maps onto like what Marvin does well, which you couldn't

12:14really say in the previous offense.

12:17>> And look, I don't want to put it out there, but it's still just year three for Marvin. I know we're all like, "Okay,

12:23let's scale back the expectations." But, like you said, I and that's obviously that's one of those oh, that's like the Josh Allen

12:29if your quarterback sucks through 2 years, like he's going to be all right.

12:32Not every receiver is Davante Adams, but it takes time for some of these guys to break out. The pedigree is still there.

12:38This is somebody in your work we're clearing 80th percentile versus man, 77th versus press. Of course, we'll link all of Matt Harmon's stuff down below.

12:46But, I want to transition to a guy that was also in his class, also drafted super highly, also heading into year

12:53three. We have Rome Odunze. And I admittedly has have been on the side of And here's the thing, I hate that we

12:59even pick sides here, because I'll be straight up with you. Like I I get this comment all the time in my

13:03streams and it's like, "Okay, yes, I have Burden ranked ahead. I have Loveland ranked ahead." But, so does the entire ADP landscape. And I still I took

13:11Rome Odunze the other day in a in a big-money draft. I have him. He's not a fade for me. I like all these guys.

13:16Caleb Williams could go absolutely nuclear this year. But, Rome Odunze maybe I'm not giving enough love to. I'm certainly not giving hate to to uh Rome

13:26Odunze. But, where are you at on Rome at this point in his career?

13:30>> Yeah, first of all, I I totally cosign what you said at the beginning there that I as a big Odunze fan, and I have

13:36Rome ranked ahead of Luther Burden uh this year, but from an overall ADP standpoint, I'm still ahead of at least on Yahoo ahead of the overall ADP on

13:44both of these guys. Just cuz I think it's crazy that Rome is so far down the board compared to Burden and Loveland.

13:52Um I I think like again, you don't have to hate one to like the other. Like I refuse to participate in that because

14:00I'm actually I really like Luther Burden as a player. Um but I think the way that we remember the end of the season is

14:06like, "Okay, Burden and Loveland emerged and kind of like Odunze got pushed to the side." And you know, one of the

14:11narratives is, and I'm sure you've heard people say this, "Well, Ben Johnson drafted Luther Burden and Colson Loveland. He inherited Rome Odunze,

14:18which I mean, he inherited the quarterback, and we're not using that, you know, that logic there. He inherited Rome Odunze and he proceeded to run his

14:25entire passing game through him in the first eight weeks of the season. I don't know that that would have happened over

14:30the course of the year because obviously Loveland and Burden were coming off summer injuries. They were rookies. I think those guys are

14:37going to be awesome this year, but I don't think that means that Odunze has to get pushed to the side, especially

14:41because And look, when you do the first half, second half split, sometimes there's total noise in that, but I think because there actually is an event that

14:47you can look at in terms of him going on the injury report with ultimately what ended up being a foot fracture that he

14:52tried to play through. I think you can pretty comfortably kind of look at the first and second half splits. And in the

14:57first eight weeks of the season, he was 19th in yards per out run. Like he was productive with the opportunity given to

15:02him. And I think we can all admit like even as a big Odunze fan, like he needed to clean up some of the contested catch

15:07issues, which I think are also, you know, fluky year-to-year stats. They're at least they're not maybe not fluky, but, you know, not sticky year-to-year.

15:15Uh and that was something that was really a strong point of his college profile, but the big thing about his game is that this is one

15:21of the best separators against press man coverage in the NFL right now is Rome Odunze. I mean and they don't even just

15:27use him as like that kind of X receiver.

15:29Last season he took 64.9% of his sample snaps outside. He was in the slot for 29% in the backfield as a motion guy on

15:37almost 6%. He was off the line and on the line at a pretty equal rate. So there's no like just kind of static X in

15:44this offense. I don't think that will be either of these two receivers. I think they'll use a guy like Khalif Raymond to

15:50be you know kind of the movement sacrificial player in the offense and and like I said he's just unbelievable against press man

15:58coverage. He He throttles down really well. He is a big target who if he just comes down with some of those contested

16:04passes, you know, we're we're talking about a very different season last year.

16:08I think he can clean those up. I think Caleb can get a little bit better in year three. So I just want to buy pieces

16:13of the Bears offense and because I think that Odunze is a pretty misunderstood player who can still get better. I I

16:21mean he's the cheapest of the three pass catchers. I find myself gravitated to him really well. So again, ultimately just a really really good player that is

16:29someone who you know, 93rd percentile success rate versus press last year.

16:34He's He's very talented, really good detailed route runner and you know, the last thing I would say too Ron and this

16:40is kind of to our point about Harrison and Odunze.

16:43I think if you say at this point like oh, we know who this guy is in the first like four seasons of his career as a

16:49receiver, like that's crazy. We just saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba in year three take a real big leap, you know, in in in year

16:56number three as a fundamentally different player and I think that can happen for a lot of these 2024 receivers this year. I mean shoot Drake London who

17:03you mentioned earlier. He was a very He took a leap in year four. Chris Olave took a leap in year four. So it's

17:10definitely possible in the first four years of these career these guys' career for them to take us by surprise.

17:16>> Yeah, I I too often we definitely are very static and almost like copy and pasting what happened before of like okay, this is who this

17:23guy was here and even was a to detriment of me with JSN where even I couldn't really even dream big enough. I

17:30don't know that anyone could really dream big enough that he was going to be this good, you know, someone that I

17:34don't think he even cleared two yards per route run. You could squint and say okay, on the outside he actually had a

17:38better yards per route run, but you had to really squint and find things and then say I'm Darnold emerges. It's just,

17:44you know, that was a perfectly laid out parlay, but even I mean, we've been doing this for a while. You can think

17:49back to the Chris Godwin year three breakout, the Calvin Ridley year three breakout of this is and it and it was for a while

17:56the gold standard and why not bet on this class that was so special. Of course, I mean, we all love Malik

18:01Nabers, we all love all those guys going high, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas is interesting, but I think that we're going to get like

18:08two guys from that group that really smash this year. All right, now before we get to Matt Harmon's next must draft

18:14wide receiver, I did want to let you guys know that I am looking for short form content help this football season.

18:20I'm looking for somebody to take my long form videos here on YouTube, shorten them down into short form clips to be

18:27reposted to Tik Tok, Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts across the board managing those accounts and uploading the short form content. I have a Google Form in

18:38the description and the comment section down below. This is a paid position. If you are interested, fill out the Google Form and I will get back to you ASAP.

18:46With that being said, let's get back into the video. Somebody I wanted to bounce some ideas around with you on a

18:52misunderstood receiver is Zay Flowers.

18:55He is My audience is probably sick of hearing me talk about Zay Flowers. Okay.

19:00I keep on talking him up.

19:02I every time I take him in a draft, I do these drafts every night on stream.

19:07Every time I take Zay Flowers, I get hit with the oh my god, that's a terrible pick. He's not going to score

19:11touchdowns. And that's of course the big thing with Flowers is he he he's too small to score touchdowns. He's not going to score touchdowns in the

19:18league's, you know, a top 10, top five implied point total offense.

19:22Where are we at on Zay Flowers? Is he misunderstood as a player cuz he definitely, you know, when you're 5'9" you get typecast as like, "Okay, like

19:29you're not a serious separator, a serious wide receiver." How do you view Zay Flowers through the lens, I guess, of like real football and then how does

19:38that trickle into fantasy football for you?

19:41>> Yeah, I think Zay is kind of still remembered by who he was as a rookie where he was this kind

19:48of gadgety receiver and really mistake-prone. This was one of the reasons I had him as a a tier three prospect instead of like a

19:56true tier two prospect in in my rankings because he just would have some I don't know, like the best way to say

20:02it is like brain farts, you know, he had like Deonte Johnson moments both from like a drop standpoint and what he would

20:08he would do that really annoying hot back move when he had the ball in space early on in his career and this is like,

20:16"Man, Deonte never got over that." And and he was also not as much of an athlete as Zay Flowers is. So, like Zay

20:21could kind of get away with it at times cuz he's so explosive, but he kind of really cut that out over the course of

20:27the last, I would say, year and a half, especially last season. And like this is one of the best zone beating receivers

20:32in the NFL is Zay Flowers and I don't know if you know this, Ron.

20:36I know you do. I'm being facetious. The NFL plays a lot of zone coverage these days. 90th percentile success rate versus zone as a rookie, 89th in year

20:43two, 91st last year. He's been one of the best against zone beating receivers.

20:46And then last year, we saw him for the first time really kick up another level against press coverage, 75% success rate

20:53versus press last year. And that really does follow kind of like the path and I'm not comparing these guys necessarily because they're they're, you know, St.

21:01Brown's bigger than Zay Flowers, but he's not like the biggest dude in the world, but that generally follows the path like what St. Brown was as a

21:08player. He was a really like excellent zone beater early then he improved on an annual basic basis against press man coverage to now last year, you know,

21:16like I know my colleague Josh Norris has pointed this out. He was the most highly targeted receiver on a percentage basis

21:23inside the red zone among any receiver in the NFL was Amon-Ra St. Brown. You know, and it's because they design a lot

21:28of looks for their best separator, especially their best quick separator in tight condensed spaces where there is a lot of press coverage like down in the

21:35red zone around the goal line. And you know, Declan Doyle last year was with Ben Johnson. Like he comes off this same

21:40sort of tree where they're comfortable with this guy, you know, being there. So I think we could see like a eight

21:44touchdown season from Zay Flowers and I also could see like Is he I I think he's a great dark horse candidate to lead the NFL in receiving

21:51yards this year, you know, just cuz again he's really talented. I think he fits a lot of the same sort of

21:56peripherals that you would look at from like a what JSN did last year where it's going to be a lot of heavy personnel on

22:02this team and like you just think about this, man. I I mean, I'm you know, obviously it's tough to talk about Rashod Bateman right now cuz of

22:08the off-field stuff, but like I think Bateman could still be like a usable player. Uh Jacobi Lane I think is an

22:13interesting kind of sacrificial X type player who's going to help them in the jump ball game and they really needed a

22:18presence like that. But like these two guys are not going to be highly targeted players in the offense. Then even when

22:24they get into these heavy personnel looks, their tight ends are going to be like Mark Andrews at this point, um Durham Smythe, like rookie

22:31fourth-rounder Matthew Hibner. I mean, in those situations like it's going to be explosive plays to Zay Flowers this year. So yeah, I think he's in I think

22:39he's not like a value where he goes in fantasy necessarily, but he is definitely someone that in that range I really want to click on his name.

22:46>> He's a value in home leagues, man. In home leagues, he's a guy you can get in like the fourth round as kind of like I

22:52I see him closer to the uh Devonte Smith, Chris Olave, Malik Nabers guys than closer to like your uh Ladd McConkey, Teagan Quitoriano and

23:02I I understand the breakout scenario cases for those guys, but I do just think Flowers in this offense and if we

23:08can get and I I don't know the the retort to this every time is okay, well, Lamar already had his MVP season and

23:14Flowers didn't catch enough touchdowns.

23:15What I would say is Zay Flowers is in like a second year as a pro. You had Andrews there. You had Isaiah Likely. If

23:21Lamar goes full scorched earth and he throws for 35 plus touchdowns like he's liable to do in any given season, I don't see why Zay Flowers

23:29can't lead the team in receiving touchdowns. There's no more Isaiah Likely. Mark Andrews is toast. And I like your point as well that they could

23:35play more heavy personnel and that was kind of the upside lever for JSN to just kind of you know, there's the the stats

23:43out there of like yards per route run really spikes when you're out there in heavy personnel just cuz you know, you're not competing with other

23:47receivers.

23:49But I actually think a good piggyback off of that is somebody who I think is what what's really impressive about Josh Downs is

23:57that all of his per route stuff sticks in three or four wide receiver sets. He's out there.

24:02He's playing like we said with Marvin Harrison Jr. on expert difficulty. He's not out there. Look, JSN of course a monster, but he's not out there

24:09competing with like A.J. Barner and Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp. Like we're talking, you know, Michael Pittman a legit target earner, Tyler Warren a

24:16legit target earner. Before that, say whatever you please about Adonai Mitchell, target earner on a per route basis. Target earner if nothing else a

24:24target earner on a per route basis. And Josh Downs is out here. He led the entire receiver room in first downs per

24:29route run last year. A fun little stat.

24:33How are you feeling about Josh Downs cuz he's been one that's tricky. We've had ups and downs here. We've had uh

24:39all all systems ready to go. Keenan Allen signs. Then we get a calf injury for Josh Downs and now we have Keenan

24:45Allen off the field, but it seems like the level-headed guy the Twitter guy seems like Keenan Allen's going to be fine. I don't know all the details of

24:52that situation, but we now head into here. Josh Downs one of your my guys this season. Uh how how do you see this

25:00going? Cuz he he's been one of the guys where it's like if he could just be out there in three or two wide receiver

25:04sets, the uh you know, the world would be a better place. And now it seems like we're here.

25:09>> Yeah, I think we're here.

25:10Um I think Keenan I mean Keenan Allen last year, I think he played 12 snaps in '21, '22, 12, and 13 personnel last year

25:18for the Los Angeles Chargers. Keondre Lambert-Smith had more of those snaps.

25:22Darius Davis had more of those snaps. By like a significant margin, too, by the way. Um for the most part, Keenan Allen

25:29was kind of like a designated hitter in 11 personnel packages, three three plus receiver sets for the LA Chargers. And they played a lot of those

25:37personnel groupings last year. And he actually led all receivers in receptions on third down, which is unbelievable considering he wasn't a first like a was

25:45not a full-time player for the LA Chargers last year. And I think that's pretty much what he's here to do. Keenan

25:51Allen, by the way, played like his highest rate of um snaps at Z receiver.

25:57And it's just like that's what he's going to do here. He's going to like I think Downs is going to play in the

26:02heavier personnel groups. They can do a lot and already did last year to kind of in very limited looks, very very little

26:08limited looks to get him like slot receiver looks in two receiver sets.

26:12Basically, all camp has been from what I've heard from people on the ground there is like how much can they put on

26:17his plate from like a vertical outside receiver standpoint. I think based on a charting standpoint, from what I've seen over with Downs over the course of his

26:25career, you know, 82% success rate versus press last year, he wins on these like big breaking routes. And I think one of the things that people

26:31misunderstand, Ron, when they say like oh Keenan Allen came in and like mog Glad McConkey last year, is that the reality is that the Chargers

26:40offensive line mogged Glad McConkey last year. Cuz going back and watching Keenan Allen putting his profile up on the site, there was a lot of moments where, you

26:49know, Glad is is inside slot receiver on the line of scrimmage where they're trying to get him free on these like big

26:54breaking routes as the first read player, but you got to default to Keenan Allen there at that point cuz he's open

27:00quickly and Justin Herbert has no time in the pocket. I mean, we'll see about the whole Daniel Jones Achilles experience, but

27:07they objectively have a much better offensive line situation than what the Chargers devolved into last year. So, I think the reality is Downs all we need

27:14is just he needs to play more and he needs to get targeted further down the football field than what we saw last

27:19year. Because he had per target was lower than Keenan Allen's last year.

27:22That can't hold or the Colts offense is going to suck this year. So, I I really think there's a lot of paths to upside

27:29with Josh Downs and probably like even if he misses as a you know, round nine player or whatever he is right now, I

27:36think that's going to be like okay, who cares? But I think there's a lot of ceiling present. So, you know, for me, I

27:41have him ranked in the 80s as an overall player. So, I think he's a value where he goes.

27:46>> Yeah, would love to see him get involved more down field. I do want to say as well, I I feel like

27:52I feel like Shane Steichen didn't get enough credit for how awesome that offense was last year in terms of like like sure, you can point at like you

28:00can't really point at Daniel Jones. I mean, Daniel Jones was good, of course, but I think that Steichen deserves some credit for just kind of like operating

28:08it was essentially the league's best offense through 13 weeks. Like he he they they crushed the Broncos. Like it was pretty absurd and that's why even

28:15with the Achilles of Daniel Jones, I I kind of I I don't know if he's earned it just yet, but in my mind I'm almost like

28:21they have Shane Steichen, I think they're going to be all right.

28:23>> I mean, Ron, they were like a historic team before Daniel Jones started to get hurt. They were like leading they would

28:29have been had that held like from a points per drive basis one of the best if not the best offense in NFL history.

28:35They were crushing teams last year and I think a lot of that is Daniel Jones is Daniel Jones, but he is

28:42a really good fit in what Shane Steichen was asking him to do last year, which was a lot of like don't process post snap, don't process

28:50pre like just here's where the opening's going to be, just execute the assignment. Um and I think that's just like so we do this

28:57thing with quarterbacks where it's like they're either bad or they're good. And they're very much like it's so much more of a nuanced position. I say this is

29:05like a wide receiver evaluator and a lot of times well this guy's got a bad quarterback situation whatever it so what depends and I'm sometimes I was

29:11honestly I say this is somebody that wasn't open-minded enough Daniel Jones last year. So I got this wrong that he just objectively fit what Shane Steichen

29:20was going to ask him to do much more than like what Brian Daboll was asking him to do.

29:23>> Yeah, I I almost put him like I don't know if it's crazy, but I almost like the KOC tier where this is somebody that

29:28like puppeteered Philip Rivers into looking >> I would rather take Shane Steichen over Kevin O'Connell as as a play caller and

29:35play designer and I feel actually like he he makes I think Daniel Jones actually would have he would have maybe struggled in the in

29:43the KOC offense cuz it's so shaky and volatile and downfield basis which is kind of um I don't know. I I'm still like deciding

29:52how I feel about the Kyler Murray experience in that offense, but it'll be better than JJ McCarthy, that's for sure, obviously. But I think Steichen

30:00makes his makes his quarterbacks lives easier as long as they reach some level of ability to kind of you know, just

30:09be like a a steady figure in the offense. He makes the quarterback's life easier than I think Kevin O'Connell does.

30:15>> Yeah. And like Daniel Jones is kind of like the perfect bar for him is I guess what their thought process is. And then

30:21I I will transition over to Honestly, it it's it kind of sucks that these guys are so linked together, but it feels

30:27like you can't talk about Josh Downs without talking about Jayden Reed. The the two really talented receivers on all of the nerdy per route metric stuff

30:34can they just get out there and play enough? Jayden Reed definitely feels like more of an underdog to play in the

30:40two wide receiver stuff in this offense.

30:42I do wonder if that matters though. Can he Can they just play enough three wide receiver stuff? Where are we at here

30:48with Jayden Reed? It's topical as well.

30:49We of course have Josh Jacobs going on the exempt list. They have MarShawn Lloyd. They trade for Caleb Johnson, which is kind of a hilarious move. And

30:55now we sit here.

30:57Is it time to let Jordan Love cook? Have we been calling for it? It feels like the fantasy community at least since I

31:02think it was what, 2023 when he fully broke out as like, "Holy [ __ ] Jordan Love is here."

31:07Uh where are we at on Jayden Reed and just kind of this offense as a whole heading into 2026?

31:12>> Yeah, I think this is an offense to really target this year in Green Bay in the passing game specifically. I mean,

31:17I've been saying for months like Josh Jacobs has every red flag in the book, you know, and obviously now he's on the exempt list. I don't even know if

31:25he plays this season. Uh you know, obviously tough situation to talk about this year. So, um just putting that to the side here.

31:32But I mean, I think that that also does inform just kind of my standpoint on these Packers receivers, which just overall before talking about Jayden Reed

31:38specifically, I think it seems like they're going to throw the ball more this year. I think they're going to play a lot more 11 personnel this season. And

31:43I think Jordan Love like him him calling plays in the second half of the preseason game, that that's like hashtag bullish to me, you know? Uh like the

31:50fact that he's taking more ownership of the offense. I would much like I know it didn't age well with the let Russ cook

31:55thing, but I would definitely let Love cook this year. And I think they're going to have to with the run game at

32:01the state that it's in, the offensive line the state that it's in specifically as a run blocking unit, and the way the

32:06defense is uh at this point as well. I think they're going to have to throw the football more overall this year. And you

32:12know, I think Jordan Love is really capable of it. Like Jordan Love is a great fantasy quarterback. My My colleague at Yahoo, Scott Pianowski, has

32:18made this point um this season that, you know, I'm talking up Jayden Reed, other people are like Matthew Golden. I mean,

32:23I think you can draft any of these Packers players. I mean, no one wants to draft the quarterback.

32:27Like I I think that Jordan Love is a great like dark horse, you know, QB top like top five QB um leads the NFL in

32:33touchdowns type deal uh overall. But anyways, point being about Jayden Reed, I don't think it really matters this year in terms of the 11 or the two

32:41receiver set 11 personnel stuff because I think they'll be in 11 more this year.

32:45And also, Ron, they're going to play with a lot more pace this year. This is typically a team that's one of the

32:49slowest pace in the NFL. In the preseason, they've been running a lot of pace. I think this whole McVay coaching tree uh is going to move it into a

32:57little bit more of this world this year cuz I think it's like a blind spot for them. So, I think because of that, no

33:02huddle, things of that nature, Reed will just be on the field more even if he's not going to play in the two receiver

33:07sets.

33:08And ultimately, like yes, there's connective tissue with these guys. I like to joke that they're kind of in the uh Matt Harmon Felfert again category.

33:16Like, if you look at my the player comparison tool, which is a new thing that we launched on Reception Perception this year, you I mentioned Jalen Reagor

33:22earlier. You type in Noll, his top five comparables or there's like a a Josh Downs season in there. There's two Jayden Reed seasons. There's a freaking

33:29Curtis Samuel season in there. You know, this is kind of the guy that gets a little pigeonholed in this way where I

33:35like him a little bit better than their coaching staff, but I mean, Reed, when he's been on the field, has been

33:40productive. He's been highly involved. I I just want to make that bet this year.

33:44Uh I think he could be the most productive Packers receiver uh this season, probably a long shot over Christian Watson, but uh Watson's also

33:51not a bet to stay on a not a good bet to stay on the field. Uh then again, neither has Reed at this

33:55point. So, yeah, Reed and Downs, there's clear limitations to their profile, not even just from an on-field standpoint, but even just an injury standpoint. I

34:02think that's the thing that could hold these guys back.

34:05>> And if you want to really put your thinking cap on here, Jayden Reed does have 34 career carries for 310 rushing

34:13yards.

34:14With the absence of Josh Jacobs, could we see some more rushing game usage?

34:18Could we see like a baby Deebo? I mean, you you mentioned Curtis Samuel, he was one of these guys.

34:23Uh I think especially the year that he hit in Carolina, now that I'm thinking back to it, but this could be some fun

34:29usage for Jayden Reed. I do want to pick your brain like almost How do you see this room kind of figuring itself out? Because I found

34:36myself drafting not only a lot of Jayden Reed, I draft a lot of Christian Watson.

34:39I will say, and again, I don't want to pin these guys against each other because this is this is what sucks about

34:44fantasy. You make a great point though that at the end of the day, the two wide receiver sets would be nice for Jayden

34:49Reed, but at the end of the day you sort by routes run and you get them anyway you can. And up tempo would be almost

34:55like an offset to if he can't get out there in two wide receiver sets. But I say all that to say, um Christian Watson

35:01is so interesting to me as a guy with like a 17-18 yard ADoT. Can he do I'm curious like is there parallels between

35:08him and like Jameson Williams who I found to be so interesting where Jameson Williams I think had like a 16 or

35:1419-yard ADoT his first two years. And then Ben Johnson, yes, he was still there in 2024, where it was like, "Okay, let's bring

35:23his ADoT down to like 11-11-12 yards and really get him in all levels of the field."

35:29I start to imagine like could Christian Watson do that? Like they've been using him moved around as like the Z flanker.

35:35I think even the preseason they used him it was kind of like a play action pass and they get him on like a leak into the

35:41flat on the opposite side of the field, which is like really encouraging here.

35:44And then the way that like my mind kind of thinks through it is like we I we don't like to throw around the

35:49sacrificial act stuff. But Matthew Golden, a guy who's not a huge target earner, that's where my head goes. But then there's also really smart guys out

35:56there that I'm seeing are like, "Matthew Golden, I might take him ahead of Jayden Reed and like potentially value-wise he's like the best bet in

36:02this offense to play out there in two wide." Like I know Hayden is a huge Matthew Golden guy.

36:07How are you sifting through it in terms of like who could really make an impact in fantasy?

36:12>> Yeah, I mean the thing with Golden is that even if and I I kind of would say I'm like a Matthew Golden centrist. As a

36:18prospect I thought he would I think he was my receiver five in the class. So kind of thought he was like a late first

36:24round, early second round type player.

36:26Not a complete profile, but you know, still somebody worth gambling on where the Packers took him. Like totally fine with where they took him. I thought, you

36:33know, kind of the hype that like he should go over Tyquan Thornton or something like that was that was too much to me.

36:38But you know, totally fine prospect there. In that regard, probably liked him a little bit more than than the true spreadsheet bros as well. And then you

36:45know, coming off his rookie season, I would say that his charting profile as a rookie was kind of I could go either way with it. I don't

36:52really have a strong take on is he going to be like the the numbers overall would indicate you know, he could maybe he

36:58could just be he's probably not going to be like an outright bust, but I don't look at this coming out of this season

37:02be like how could they not have gotten this guy more involved? Unbelievable.

37:05Like he was just open all the time and it just they they were they were neglecting him or Jordan Love was

37:10neglect It's like that I don't really feel that way about it. I just kind of come down and I could see this one going

37:14either way. So when I look at the fact like on Yahoo ADP over last 7 days, he's still the 124th overall player. Pick a

37:20shot. Like who cares?

37:22That's totally fine to me. I would prefer Jayden Reed just cuz as well, I think Matthew Golden's going to play more snaps, which obviously matters.

37:29Plays more snaps, I think that Reed will end up being more productive and more highly targeted cuz I think there's you

37:35know, just some untapped potential in his game. And also have to remember like Reed is coming off a complete lost season from an injury standpoint last

37:41year. So I think both those guys are are good bets and I think Christian Watson is kind of appropriately priced >> Oh, that's good podcasting.

37:49>> Christian Watson's kind of like appropriately priced where he's going for some of the up and downs in his game. But I mean there's no question

37:57last year Ron, he took a big step forward with you know, the best season of his NFL career while coming off a

38:022020 calendar year in the same calendar year as it was very impressive.

38:06>> Yeah, that that was one that I was kicking my like he wasn't even really on my radar. Like I just figured okay, late

38:12like he tore it like >> Yeah, he tore it in January. Yeah, January 2025, he comes back in what is it? October or November of 2025 and

38:20again, not just from a statistical perspective, but even from an RP standpoint, the best season of his career.

38:26>> Yeah, it's see like it was I was ready to say it's kind of over for him.

38:30Um, I'll bring up another guy who I think is interesting in this way when we're talking about like more routes.

38:35Miami has been a team that's definitely been a little bit like slower-paced and then even even at the peak of things, it

38:40felt like Jaylen Waddle wasn't getting to like 90% plus route shares. Like Miami definitely had some interesting usage with uh heavy personnel and how

38:48they were rotating things. McDaniels always does some quirky stuff. But now he goes to Denver. It feels like it's wheels all the way up. There's

38:54definitely not similar to Flowers because Flowers is very simple. It's like, okay, he can't score touchdowns.

38:59But with Waddle, it's like, all right, we're doing this again. We're doing it again with Jaylen Waddle. Like he has uh

39:05let us down so many times. He was a second-round pick for a little bit there.

39:09Uh where are you at on Jaylen Waddle?

39:10How does he fit in with Sean Payton?

39:13Uh they sent a first-round pick for him.

39:15And it feels like he's a no-brainer, but then also it feels like people are a little bit squeamish about having to

39:20take him. He's definitely rising is what I'll say. Uh early off-season it felt like he was more like an early fifth.

39:25Now it seems like he's more like an early fourth. Where if you want to take Waddle, you kind of got to

39:30uh puff your chest out about it. Uh so where are you at there?

39:33>> Yeah, I I I'm still willing to to puff my chest out and take Jaylen Waddle. I think he's a great fourth-round pick uh

39:38this year. When he's available in the fourth round, I'm going to pretty much take him every single time. I think there's a few things that are

39:42misunderstood about Jaylen Waddle. Um the biggest one being like this is a really, really good player. Even like from a reception perception standpoint,

39:49short but like he was I think 11th in for in yards per route run last year. He was very productive first downs per

39:54route run. He just didn't get a lot of routes. Didn't get a lot of snaps because this team was 32nd in plays run

40:00last year. And all the while, he's been doing this while essentially playing out of position where I think Waddle is best

40:09as like a movement Z receiver and that's where how he's going to be used in this offense.

40:13Like Sean Payton talked about it. This This obvious. I didn't even need Sean Payton to tell me this. I even need to

40:18see it in the preseason, but it's good that he has since confirmed this and then we've seen in the preseason. It was

40:23obvious when they traded for Jaylen Waddle that he was going to have a position change cuz, you know, Courtland Sutton is the X receiver in this

40:30offense. Pat Bryant being the third receiver matters a lot because he can be that true power slot like in the Jauan

40:36Jennings way where you can line him up on ball as a blocker and that allows you to take a guy like Jaylen Waddle who

40:42from 2022 to 2024 lined up on 77% of his sampled snaps as an outside receiver, 81% on the line of scrimmage on ball.

40:51Essentially, and I know Miami's like a little bit of a different offense, but essentially like the X receiver in their offense while their role catering to

40:59Tyreek Hill, you know, during most of this span and even last season he's 83.9% outside, 78.5% on the ball.

41:07And because, yeah, Tyreek Hill gets hurt 4 weeks of the season, but their other pass catchers are like you know, my boy

41:13Malik Washington who's, you know, kind of a slot designer touches, but he's not playing outside on the ball for you. And

41:19they're playing a lot of heavy personnel looks. So Sean Payton saying like he's going to be the movement Z receiver. Like

41:26it reminds you a lot of like what Brandin Cooks in 2016 played his highest percentage of snaps off the ball that

41:31year because they had a true X and a power slot that season and I just think we're going to see Waddle absolutely

41:38cook in that role, run a lot more routes, get a lot more layups. So yes, the injury is the biggest question just

41:44like is he going to be on and off the field as he kind of always is?

41:47Potentially, but man, when he's on the field, he's going to be highly targeted and he's going to get a lot more layups

41:52and be I think more consistently involved than what he was in Miami because think about this, Ron, like as that outside on ball receiver

42:01you're you're in never the first read in the progression because you have Tyreek Hill and then, you know, even if you're

42:06the second read in the progression or, you know, whatever, you are the first read. Tua's getting rid of that ball to

42:10Devon Achane so fast. Like it doesn't even matter. Those routes are barely having time to develop uh because Tua is your quarterback there. Bo Nix is

42:18certainly not going to, you know, kind of play the same way.

42:21>> Yeah, he he's been kind of playing as well on like expert difficulty. I mean, look, McDaniel definitely schemes things up and he makes it easier on you. But

42:28like you said, like he's almost been playing out of position. I looked it up just just out of curiosity, but he had a

42:3377% slot rate in college. That flipped all the way down to like 30% in his time, you know, over his huge long

42:39career. And it And it only peaked as a rookie. I believe that was before Tyreek came in 2021 when he crushed as a rookie down

42:46the stretch as well. Uh but Jaylen Waddle is is a player that I'm rooting for. I got to move him up. I don't want

42:51to put you on the spot here. But I will say, I mean, you already have rankings set at this point. So it's not really

42:55putting you on the spot. The one that I really struggle with is Jaylen Waddle versus Garrett Wilson. And I'm afraid you're going to snap say Jaylen Waddle

43:01over Garrett Wilson, but it's it's really close for me.

43:05>> I have him like a whole tier higher. I I have Waddle um and this has been I've said it like this basically since after

43:12the NFL draft, you know, when you kind of put your first like serious pass of rankings out. Um and I really haven't

43:18moved him. Like I have him in my second tier of receivers, Jaylen Waddle. I've got him in the same tier as guys we

43:24talked about, Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave. Um I think that second tier is stacked, but to me talent-wise, opportunity-wise, he checks

43:33all the boxes that I want from um you know, in that range. But I think Wilson, obviously the next tier down. Listen,

43:39I'll I'll you know, I you know I'm a Garrett Wilson guy. Just got to get all the variables to come together for him.

43:44>> Yeah, I think I I think you make a good point. I'm going to move I'll nudge Waddle one spot ahead of my guy Garrett

43:49Wilson. Cuz I I do think they're similar players where I'm like in terms of like per route, they look awesome. We know

43:55what they can do. And then one of these guys goes to an actual good offense.

43:59Um I'll add a fun nugget that Waddle uh had 4.17 yards per one on play action, the seventh most among receivers. The

44:05Broncos threw the ball the third most out of play action last year. It is just a perfect marriage there.

44:11Uh but we can talk about a guy that's like almost reminds me like we talked about that rookie Jaylen Waddle season.

44:15I believe the Dolphins sucked that year.

44:18Uh Casey Conceição is kind of a similar bet of a guy that can move around the formation, explosive with the ball in

44:22his hands. I mean we met during the uh Dynasty Rookie Draft season to talk rookie receivers and I believe we talked

44:28Casey Conceição. He's a guy that uh I opened the Reception Perception profile on him and he cuz I I almost expected

44:36for him to be more raw, you know? Like when we get these guys coming out of school like almost like a Luther Burden

44:40in a way where he's electric with the ball in space and with the ball in his hands. He's going to have the uh I know

44:46you have the charted like first player missed or uh missed tackles forced type of metric uh which I knew he was going

44:52to crush. He's someone that had a ton of carries in college, which I always like to see. That's like a JD Zaquandre

44:56nugget where if you're just if they want you to have the ball uh more, that means a lot when it comes

45:02to playing wide receiver. But you see Conceição, I don't know if you would want to say a technician but a a real

45:07receiver. Uh how do you see him kind of fitting in with Todd Monken here uh and where you're targeting him?

45:13>> Oh yeah, that was the thing that was surprising to me with him cuz I I had kind of heard the same thing, you know,

45:17like and I don't watch college football during the season. Uh we'll see now that Yahoo Fantasy's got a college football fantasy game. We'll see. Uh I don't

45:25know. That probably if I can't really incorporate another day of football though. That will probably end in a divorce uh which I'm not keen on.

45:30>> You You guys that have lives, it's a little bit of a different calculus there.

45:35>> [laughter] >> Hey Ron, don't get don't sell yourself short. Someday you'll have a life, too.

45:39>> Yeah, we'll get there.

45:40>> I barely I'm bro, I barely have a life, okay? That's like one day That's my one day that I have a life is Saturday. So

45:46uh again, would be would be tough to justify to to the wife, but I think I am going to start charting prospects

45:51earlier than ever uh this season for a little more fun stuff there. But you know, that doesn't involve >> year.

45:56>> Yeah, I know. I I've heard. Uh every year it's like you can't can't wait till you check out this receiver class, but I

46:02heard a lot of excitement about this group this year. So very much looking forward to that. But yeah, on KC I I

46:07don't watch college football, so I don't really have like a a stance on him other than shout out to producer Colin over at

46:12the Yahoo fantasy forecast, our lead producer over there. He's a Texas A&M fan and he's like, "I can't wait till you chart KC cuz he's such a stud." Like

46:19yada yada, was hyping up this guy, but yeah, I'd seen other and Colin was right on that one. As much as I hate to admit

46:25it, Colin was right on that. Um also right on Ryan Flournoy being a really good player, too, which again, I'm reticent to give Colin two shout outs on

46:33one show, but here we are. Nevertheless, I and I was kind of heard the same thing where he's maybe this like returner

46:38gadgety player yards after catch type option, you know, maybe in like the Jayden Reed bucket, um but yeah, I think he's much more further along than Jayden

46:47Reed was as a collegiate prospect, obviously. Um I was shocked to see just like how good of a route runner he was.

46:53Um he's the best separator in this year's draft class, 92nd percentile success rate versus man, 87th against press, 81st against zone. Um nearly a

47:02full green route tree, which doesn't really mean anything from indication standpoint, but it's a fun little fact uh about Casey that he separates at all

47:08three levels. Like honestly, Ron, if he had had just a little bit better catch point technique, I probably would have ranked him as the number one receiver in

47:16this class and like that's the only one thing that really kept him off like my first tier of receivers, which I don't

47:22think any of these guys in this class kind of qualified as like a tier one prospect, but Casey, if he had just

47:27cleaned up some of those mistakes at the catch point, which I think are correctable in time, I would have probably ranked him as the

47:32number one and maybe a tier one prospect in this class cuz he's just so good at basically everything else and I expect

47:39his rookie season to go a lot like Zay Flowers' did where it is uh you know, hey, look at the screens and the

47:45designer touches and then you know, people like me who are charting the routes like, "No, no, no, this is a real

47:49boy. This is a real receiver. He wins all three levels, all that stuff." Uh so I think we'll see that sort of

47:54maturation, but he's bigger and like a little bit more like he's he has the drops and things like that but he's less of like a

48:01mistake prone player than Flowers. So, I like him a lot and this is just one of those like late round picks bet on talent and kind

48:08of hold your nose and don't watch Browns games while you have Casey Conceição on your fantasy team. But if something changes,

48:14you know, let's just say one of these quarterbacks which is not going to happen but let's just say it did they

48:18outkick expectations, him getting so many easy button targets and being so talented is a really nice combination for yeah again just a bet on talent type of

48:27pick.

48:28>> Yeah, I like that especially when we're talking about rookies we know they stack their production on the end of the

48:32season usually and he could be one of those guys man.

48:35Like I'm looking back at the Jaylen Waddle season. This is when Tua started 12 games and was pretty terrible 16 touchdowns 10 interceptions. You had

48:42Jacoby Brissett in there five touchdowns four picks and Waddle still made it out of there.

48:48Now your last player you sent to me before the show is a sleeper. It's a player look I I'll be real uh Steve Smith obviously

48:58put him on the map.

48:59Jaylen Coker like I would love to take credit as like oh like he was a guy that I liked that Dynasty cycle but it really

49:04was Steve Smith. I mean shout out Steve Smith for just like he's at this point a borderline Hall of Fame receiver. He he

49:10he doesn't need to be watching Holy Cross at this point in his life but he did and he liked Jaylen Coker

49:17and so do you. I'm curious what he looks like in charting. I'm also curious cuz I remember really sucks that Chris Braswell went

49:24down. I remember that getting talked about as like a piece when we talk about these roles in the offense of like Braswell could have

49:31been maybe more of like a sacrificial axe and then maybe this now emerges like Xavier Leggette playing out here. But how do you see now Coker and Tedarrell

49:40McMillan playing off of each other without Chris Braswell on the team and I guess like their next I guess their next

49:45best receiver is like I'm trying to think I guess like it is Xavier Leggette or whoever else they might have there.

49:49It seems very condensed at least is what I'll would >> That's the kind of the thing that I think when and I know some people just

49:56like want no part of this Panthers passing game cuz, you know, the Bryce Young stuff and all that and people like

50:01if you call you know, there's some people who like just make fun of you for being a Jaylen Coker guy cuz it's like

50:06what's the upside in this offense? I I get that, but you know, I think your point about how concentrated this is

50:12going to be is really valuable because you know, like Darren Waller, signing him at 33 years old from a tight end

50:18perspective, we'll see about that. None of their other tight ends like Tommy Tremble, you know, Mitchell Evans, these guys are not going to be highly targeted

50:25players. The other receivers in this room are like John Metchie, Jimmy Horn Jr. who basically is like a a leverage creating player with the motion at the

50:33snap type deal.

50:35And and then it's like, yeah, Xavier Legette and Bryson Tremaine who actually think Bryson Tremaine is a pretty cool like special teamer, blocker, role

50:41player type. Um not totally worthless, but again, he's not going to get a bunch of targets. Like he you know, none of these

50:48I think this is going to be like we split 50% of the pie between Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo and Jaylen Coker because Coker is that good.

50:55The he is a like no little cute C caveats like, oh well, for a UDFA or this that and the other. Like this one

51:02of the best young receivers in football.

51:04Like on a charting standpoint, this is definitely the case and from the Brazil injury standpoint, that is a a bummer and it takes like some of that lid

51:11lifting ability and yeah, the sacrificial stuff away, but the real reason, Rhonda, that they were going to be able and they have been in the

51:17preseason committed to playing Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo more in the slot which last year is like 15% in the slot. He can't make almost can't play

51:24less of a percentage in the slot than he did last year.

51:28But like in the preseason, it's been 60/40 dead even split between outside/inside for McMillan and Coker and the Coker breakout is the thing that

51:37really was going to allow them to push Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo more into the slot. Again, we're not talking about Terrace Marshall and Jonathan

51:43Mingo becoming, you know, Amon-Ra St.

51:45Brown or something like that. We're talking about him maybe being like 25% in the slot. And if you look at like

51:53Mike Evans, some of his best seasons have come when he's been like a 20 to 30% slot player. And that leads me to

51:59the player that Jalen Coker compares best to. And this is funny. Like I wrote up his profile looking at like the data.

52:07And I hadn't even We We usually publish the updates in the player comparison tool after the profiles go live. So I

52:13wrote in the profile was like, man, this reminds me a lot of like Chris Godwin's early season. Jalen Coker, like they're

52:19built very similarly. They're kind of these big slots who can also survive outside. Coker last year, 79th percentile success rate versus press.

52:26And even if like you don't I mean, I don't know why you've made it 50 minutes in the video if you feel this way. But

52:30even if you don't care about like me and and my work, like he put big plays on the football field last year as an X

52:35receiver did Jalen Coker once he got healthy down the stretch. So like we've seen proof of concept of that. It's very

52:42similar again to like Chris Godwin. If you look at some of Godwin's seasons where early on when he was really starting to break

52:48out, that was when we saw like Mike Evans get pushed into a little bit more of a slot-based role.

52:55Again, it's just the the way that he can be that guy for Evans who again was like 24% snaps inside when

53:04Dave Canales was the play caller for Mike Evans last in that one year with Tampa Bay.

53:10I mean, that that's to me just like there's 22%, you know, 30% seasons for Mike Evans. I think Coker's going to be

53:15a massive force in this offense and just like this is one of those he goes so late.

53:20It's just he's way too talented to be going this late. And if anything changes with this offense, like Bryce Young takes another step, they throw the

53:29football more. I know we all come into the season think there's no way either of those things could happen. But if

53:33they do, I think Coker's going to be a massive beneficiary of it. So definitely a great dynasty buy. Chris Godwin type

53:39of player. Crushes in reception perception. I I think he's a a big-time player that I just want to be rooting for this year.

53:46>> Yeah, that I I I love that for Coker.

53:48And he's to bring it full circle, year three breakout, we'll see if that happens. He is sort of a part of that

53:55class. I mean, he didn't get his name called, but I'll be rooting for Jaylen Coker. I I have him on a good amount of

53:59best ball teams. He's one of those guys where I I do get these questions in streams where guys are like, all right,

54:05three wide receiver two flex league. If you're in one of those, I think Coker makes a lot of sense. But, I do

54:10appreciate you coming on the show, giving us your time, opening my mind up to some new perspective and some perspectives I already hold with, you

54:18know, I like Dalton Kincaid, I like Josh Downs, but tell the people what you got going on from here through week one and

54:23then honestly in-season coverage and all of that. What do you What do you got going on? I'll make sure I put all of

54:27your links down below as well.

54:30>> Appreciate it, man. Yeah, as everyone knows, like Yahoo's really stepped up from a content standpoint this year, adding Josh and Hayden to the mix,

54:37already a great cast of characters over there. It's only getting better and better. So, I host the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast that is live at 4:00 p.m.

54:44Eastern five days a week, Sunday through Thursday. So, I'd love if people check out there. And from a Reception Perception standpoint, doing a ton more

54:51standalone content on YouTube on my individual channel, which people can subscribe to. Just search Matt Harmon, you'll find it. And receptionperception.com, still have

54:59profiles rolling out heading into week one, including today the Justin Jefferson one and the Kayshon Boutte one went live. Probably unfair of me to

55:06stack those two guys together on a release day, but you know, what can you do? This is the timing of it. So,

55:11I'll have 100 wide receivers up on the site by the time week one kickoff rolls around. So, it's been an awesome off-season of content, and I'm

55:20looking forward to the regular season as well.

55:23>> Awesome. I'll be looking forward to that that Jeremiah Smith breakdown sometime in September, maybe. But, everyone out there is going to

55:30>> hold me to September. Hold me to like maybe like maybe like maybe like >> [laughter] >> Do not If you put them out in September,

55:37I'll be I'll be mad.

55:39Um but cuz he's going to have plenty of stuff to put on the field. But uh we appreciate Matt coming on. If you guys

55:44have made it this far, subscribe, leave a like, and I'll see you guys in the next one.

55:50>> Oh yeah.

55:51>> [music] >> This is my kind of >> [singing] >> party. [music] Maybe I'll dance

56:01like this for ice cold weather.

56:06I surround my body like I'm frozen.

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