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7 Players Skyrocketing Up My Draft Board This Month

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

31 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 15, 2026
Published
Wed, July 15, 2026
50
Player insights
14
Players mentioned
Topics
James CookXavier WorthyDavid MontgomeryParker WashingtonEmeka EgbukaCam AkersBrian Thomas Jr.Baker MayfieldChris GodwinCyrus AllenAntonio BrownKeon ColemanKimani VidalZay Flowers
Player analysis

Player insights

50

Antonio Brown

PositiveRole0:16

Brown will play his natural off-the-line Z flanker position this year rather than being typecast to the X position as a rookie, which should help his production.

Insight page

Baker Mayfield

PositiveProjection0:14

Through five weeks, Baker Mayfield was the QB3 with 21.3 points per game before injuries derailed his season.

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PositiveMatchup0:15

Baker Mayfield is second only to CJ Stroud in adjusted net yards per attempt increase on plays with snap motion, showing strong compatibility with new offensive coordinator Zack Robinson's system.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

PositiveBreakout0:25

A bounce back is expected for Brian Thomas Jr. despite Parker Washington's emergence, suggesting continued upside for the Jaguars receiver.

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PositiveProjection0:25

Analyst believes a bounce back is coming for Brian Thomas Jr. in 2026 and plans to put most of his chips on him alongside Parker Washington.

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PositiveValue0:28

Analyst is putting most of his chips on Brian Thomas Jr. in the Jaguars receiver room for 2026 fantasy football.

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Cam Akers

PositiveValue0:17

Akers is getting a 10-pick discount (ADP 43 vs. projection-based value around pick 33) despite his tightrope surgery recovery, as the injury risk is already baked into his draft price.

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NegativeInjury0:18

Akers suffered a broken ankle requiring tightrope surgery, a procedure that has historically been unkind to players like Godwin, Mark Andrews, Tony Pollard, and Cooper Kupp.

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PositiveInjury0:18

Akers is expected to be full go for training camp and week one, with positive recovery news emerging from his tightrope surgery.

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PositiveRole0:20

Akers has a strong goal-line and receiving role on the Giants offense; in five games last year playing over half the snaps, he had 100% of backfield inside-the-10 carries and a 15.1% target share, averaging 20 points per game.

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Chris Godwin

PositiveRole0:16

Chris Godwin is expected to take the slot role in the new Zack Robinson offense, with Egbuka moving to the Z receiver position.

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PositiveRole0:16

Godwin is expected to take the slot role in Tampa Bay's offense, which represents a shift from his previous positioning and could optimize his usage.

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Cyrus Allen

PositiveValue0:28

Cyrus Allen is a late-round dart throw for the Chiefs at wide receiver, drafted in round five.

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PositiveValue0:28

Chiefs' round five draft pick described as a fun late round dart throw option.

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David Montgomery

PositiveValue0:20

Moving him up from 510 to 503 (7 spots) as a reasonable round 4-5 pick after the Lions-to-Texans trade, offering RB2 value at a discount compared to his projected role.

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PositiveValue0:20

Montgomery was initially considered for a fade video but the analyst reconsidered, suggesting he may be undervalued despite being a dead-zone back projected for high volume on a mid-tier Houston Texans offense.

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PositiveRole0:21

Expected to receive 80%+ of rushing attempts and running back targets similar to Joe Mixon's 2024 role with the Texans, positioning him as the clear lead back in DeMeco Ryans' smashmouth football system.

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PositiveProjection0:23

Projected for approximately 18 points per game ceiling based on Joe Mixon's 2024 performance in a similar role, with upside from volume and goal-line work.

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PositiveBreakout0:23

Underrated receiving talent with 50+ catches in 2020 (RB6 at 17.7 PPG on Bears) and 2.24 yards per route run on 30+ catches in 2023 with Lions, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown among Lions pass-catchers.

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PositiveProjection0:24

Analyst sees potential for David Montgomery to have a strong year similar to a previous season where he was 'really good' with high touches.

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Emeka Egbuka

PositiveBreakout0:11

Year-two breakout candidate moving up seven spots in analyst's rankings (from 405 to 310); analyst now wants him on teams as a target after being conservative early in the season.

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PositiveProjection0:12

Prospect analyst ranked Egbuka in the same tier as Tideroll McMillan and Travis Hunter as a prospect; five-star recruit from Ohio State with productive seasons alongside NFL-caliber players like Marvin Harrison Jr., Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate.

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PositiveProjection0:12

Elite rookie receiver profile; through five games, Egbuka is part of an elite list for most PPR points ever by a wide receiver in their first five games, alongside Puka Nacua, Randy Moss, Malik Nabers, and Ja'Marr Chase.

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PositiveUsage0:13

Through five games, Egbuka's per-route production was strong and not fluky; analyst notes his production profile was elite during this stretch.

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PositiveProjection0:28

Year two breakout candidate mentioned in context of year three being the typical breakout year, with Egbuka representing the exception where year two shows promise.

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James Cook

PositiveProjection0:00

Cook moved up three spots in rankings (from 112 to 109) due to deeper analysis and draft research. The analyst believes his RB6 points-per-game finish last year represents his floor and sees untapped receiving ceiling upside similar to other elite one-two turn backs.

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PositiveMatchup0:01

Cook plays for the Buffalo Bills, who are sixth in implied points per game and have the sixth best offensive line, providing an excellent situation for sustained elite production.

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PositiveRole0:03

Cook has untapped receiving upside and could earn back the receiving role he had in 2023 when he posted 44 catches and 445 receiving yards. His archetype as a pass-catching specialist (similar to Jahmyr Gibbs) suggests he's been underutilized in the passing game.

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PositiveUsage0:04

Cook was only 19th among running backs in routes run last year with 100 fewer routes than Jahmyr Gibbs and just two designed targets on screens (44th among RBs), suggesting significant room for increased passing game involvement.

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PositiveProjection0:04

James Cook has 1.95 career yards per route run from Georgia, indicating he's a highly efficient receiving back, yet has been treated like prime Nick Chubb with only 1.9 receptions per game over 2024-2025.

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PositiveRole0:05

When Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in 2023, he had James Cook on a 63-target pace with improved first read share and ADoA, demonstrating Brady's history of elevating receiving backs.

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PositiveBreakout0:06

With Joe Brady now head coach and Pete Carmichael (who elevated receiving backs like Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara) as offensive coordinator, James Cook could challenge for 50-60+ catches and compete with 1.01-1.02 backs like Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.

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PositiveValue0:07

James Cook has 20-plus point per game upside if he catches footballs as he did in college, and the analyst wants to get ahead of market on him given the offensive coordinator change.

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Keon Coleman

PositiveProjection0:29

Unlike Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman is a draft peer where you cannot explain away a down year with the same optimism for a year three breakout.

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Kimani Vidal

PositiveValue0:09

Analyst believes there's 'meat on the bone' for Vidal as a Chargers running back in Mike McDaniel's offense and thinks he can be drafted.

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Parker Washington

PositiveSleeper0:24

Moved up 14 spots (707 to 605) as an analytical darling day three pick from Penn State with early declare status, not a flash-in-the-pan like other day three receivers who popped off mid-season.

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PositiveBreakout0:24

Analyst moved Parker Washington up 14 spots (from 707 to 605) on his draft board, rejecting the 'flash in the pan' narrative and believing his strong finish will carry over as the Jaguars' best receiver.

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PositiveRole0:25

Parker Washington is now the best receiver on the Jaguars and remains with offensive coordinator Liam Cohen, who saw how dominant he was down the stretch of last season.

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PositiveMatchup0:25

The Jaguars have one of the better passing offenses in the league (sixth in points scored last year), making Parker Washington an attractive target in a high-volume passing attack.

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PositiveUsage0:26

Parker Washington's per-route metrics are elite: 29% targets per route run, 33% team percent of receiving yards, 3.53 yards per route run (Puka Nacua level), 26% first read share, and 13.25% first downs per route run.

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PositiveProjection0:27

In a six-game sample after the bye week, Parker Washington averaged 16.8 points per game and was 'nails' and 'awesome,' with the analyst believing this strong finish will carry over into 2026.

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Xavier Worthy

PositiveBreakout0:28

Analyst moved Xavier Worthy up 11 spots (from 903 to 804) based on year three breakout candidate status, as year three is historically the breakout year for receivers.

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PositiveBreakout0:28

Year three breakout candidate attached to Patrick Mahomes; Chiefs gave him a stamp of approval by not adding WR help in free agency and not drafting a WR until round five, signaling confidence in him after his game one labrum injury limited his routes in year two.

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PositiveProjection0:28

Xavier Worthy is a year three breakout candidate attached to Patrick Mahomes, and his down year can be explained away by circumstances.

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PositiveRole0:28

The Chiefs gave Xavier Worthy a stamp of approval by not adding wide receiver help in free agency and not drafting a receiver until round five, indicating they plan to ride with him in year three.

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PositiveInjury0:29

Xavier Worthy is coming back healthy after a game one labrum injury last year limited his routes, which should open up the full picture of his abilities seen during training camp.

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PositiveRole0:29

Coming back healthy opens up his route tree after the team limited his routes in year two to protect him post-labrum injury; Reid indicated they were afraid to do certain things with Worthy but now he can expand his role.

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PositiveProjection0:29

Over his last seven games of 2024-2025 (final regular season games through Super Bowl loss), Worthy posted 2.28 yards per route run, 24% targets per route run, 11.5% first downs per route run, 84.3 PFF grade, and 21.6 PPG, demonstrating upside potential.

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PositiveValue0:30

Author wants to be drafting Xavier Worthy this season and is moving him up his rankings, positioning him as someone to target ahead of market expectations.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveProjection0:29

Unlike Xavier Worthy, Zay Flowers is a draft peer where you cannot explain away a down year with the same optimism for a year three breakout.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

305
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron. In the first video I put out this off-season was me
0:06going through my top 24 players for fantasy football, but that was June 2nd.
0:11Today is July 14th, so today I'm going to talk about these seven players skyrocketing up my rankings since I dropped this video on June 2nd. Now,
0:20they aren't climbing so much because of say Rashee Rice is out of jail and good to go or off-the-field issues or
0:28positive injury news. This is more me looking deeper into the analysis, the research and saying, "You know what? I was too low on these guys. I did some
0:37drafts and we need to move them up in the rankings." As always, if you enjoy, leave a like. Subscribe if you're new.
0:44And the first player moving up the rankings is James Cook. He goes from my 109 to my 112. Of course, as always, if
0:51you want to see my rankings, if you want to use them on Underdog, you can find them over on patreon, patreon.com/ronstewart.
0:57I just pushed out a new update a few days ago. Now, back in June, James Cook was 112. In my most recent update, I
1:03moved him up three spots to the 109.
1:06And here's why. Again, it's not because of camp news or injury news. This is just the more drafts I do, the more research I do,
1:17the more I want to be all in on James Cook. It's very simple. He's getting drafted right now as the RB6.
1:25He finished as the RB6 in points per game last year, and that feels like his floor. Like I can't see outside of an
1:30injury a world where James Cook isn't a top six running back in points per game. He plays on a good team and
1:36he's a good player. That is the mantra that Josh Norris over at Yahoo newly named their channel Josh and Hayden. They're great. You guys know
1:46I've been over there a bunch. They've been over here.
1:49And when it comes to James Cook, he embodies that. The good player on a good team. This is the Buffalo Bills. We look
1:55here at the implied points per game. By the way, I checked out a new updated source. RotoWire just did the look-ahead
2:02lines where they looked on uh I believe one of the sportsbooks.
2:06They looked at what each team was implied for. The Bills are sixth in implied points per game. That's just in terms of what their offense is projected
2:13to score on a weekly basis. And then they have the sixth best offensive lines. You're talking about James Cook, who was the rushing yards leader last
2:20year, the RB6 in points per game. He was second in rushing yards over expected per attempt, second in success rate, second in yards per carry despite having
2:27the third most rushing attempts. So even on high volume, he remained efficient.
2:31He was third in missed tackles forced, eighth in chunk rate.
2:34Awesome player, awesome situation. Now, I think that why people are a little bit not out on James Cook. He's a one-two
2:41turn pick, but they're not enthusiastic to take him cuz it feels like he's tapped out at the 17.8 points per game
2:47he was at last year. What more can he do? He rushed for 1,600 yards. He scored double-digit touchdowns. What more can
2:54he do? And what I would say is there's a receiving ceiling I believe that is untapped with James Cook, and he has the upside to hit it
3:02to the same degree that all of these one-two turn backs have the upside for Saquon having the upside to bounce back
3:09in the Eagles offense. Same thing with Kenneth Walker, the upside to be the bell cow for the Chiefs. I think with
3:14James Cook everyone's like, "Oh, he's just going to be what he was last year."
3:17But I think he has the upside to earn back that receiving role he had back in 2023. We look at 2023, 44 catches, 445
3:25receiving yards, four touchdowns that year. He was a monster through the air in a 2023 season where he didn't even start the year as the lead running back.
3:33He kind of took off down the stretch, and it looked like, "Oh, going into year three, he's going to challenge for
3:3760-plus catches." And it just never happened. Now, despite low volume, he's still been great. He's had nine receiving touchdowns since he
3:44entered the league. That was the seventh most in the NFL among running backs. His 9 yards per reception is third best over
3:50that span. He just needs the targets and the routes. His targets per route run is fine at 18%. That's about average for a
3:57running back. And then, he was only 19th among running backs last year with 100 less routes than Jahmyr Gibbs and just
4:04two designed targets on screens, 44th among running backs. So, just a zero in the passing game. And I just think that is going to revert back at some
4:13point. When we just kind of rewind to what he was in college, I know that we're far removed from this, but he
4:17still is built like this. He is still a 199-lb 5'11" back who looks like Jahmyr Gibbs, right? A pass-catching specialist. Even
4:25at Georgia, in my model, I look at year-two running backs sorted by yards per route run. It is Joe Mixon, and then it's James Cook
4:32with a 1.95 career yards per route run on a Georgia team that he won a national championship with that had guys like
4:39George Pickens and Brock Bowers and AD Mitchell, all these guys who come through, Ladd McConkey.
4:44Even the running backs, Kenny McIntosh is a legit NFL running back. Zamir White, guys before that. I'm not sure if he crossed paths with D'Andre Swift, but
4:51you get what I'm saying.
4:52Georgia is Georgia, and he was a highly efficient receiver as a running back.
4:57Now, why I bring that up is because that is his archetype. And yet, when we look at what his receiving production has
5:02been over the last 2 years, he's been treated like prime Nick Chubb, and it makes no sense.
5:08This is a receiving back out of school, and it just gets more puzzling the more that I look at it. We go back
5:15to 2023, if you remember. Dorsey was the offensive coordinator. They lose to the Broncos. They fire Dorsey. Joe Brady's the OC for the second half of the 2023
5:23season. He's been the OC in 2024, 2025, and now he's the head coach heading into 2026. Well, if we look back in 2023,
5:31he juiced James Cook's receiving role once he took over the reins of the offense. He had him on a 63-target pace,
5:37way more than he's ever given James Cook over the last 2 years. You can see all of his, you know, first read share,
5:43ADoA, all of that jumped with Joe Brady, even with Ty Johnson on the roster, cuz that's what everyone's going to say,
5:48"Well, Ty Johnson's here now. They have Raheem Davis." But still, James Cook is their best, most explosive option out of the backfield. And a team that keeps
5:55throwing second-round picks at whether it's Keon Coleman or DJ Moore, and they're looking for juice in the passing game, why not throw the ball to James
6:03Cook? It makes no sense that he's been at 1.9 receptions per game in 2024 and 2025 combined. But I think now,
6:12with Joe Brady getting promoted to head coach, and yes, he's still going to call the offense, but it's going to be more
6:18of a collaborative effort in terms of the offensive game plan. He now has to care about the defense and special teams
6:24and the entire team, and he brings on Pete Carmichael as his offensive coordinator, somebody who worked with Sean Payton from 2006 to 2023, right? All of the
6:34Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, uh even Alvin Kamara. And then he's been with Sean Payton over the last 2 years with the Broncos in 2024 and
6:412025. I have to assume that once these two start collaborating, that Pete Carmichael is going to say, "Maybe we should throw that guy the football." I
6:49think it's I know it's crazy to say, but I think it's literally that simple. And if we got a season where James Cook
6:54could challenge for 50-plus catches, 60-plus catches, he can all of the sudden, in this offense, with this offensive line, with this touchdown
7:00upside, go toe-to-toe with guys like Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, who are getting picked at the 1.01 and the 1.02.
7:06We're already getting already getting reports here from Chris Brown, Bills, uh essentially just hinting that because of Pete Carmichael, we could see more
7:12receptions for James Cook. It seems like Bills fans are calling for this as well.
7:16And I just think it's one of those secret upside like trapdoors that nobody's really thinking of. It's not like James Cook is a year-two breakout
7:21candidate or anything crazy, but there is absolutely 20-plus point per game upside if James Cook can catch some footballs, and that's always been his
7:30forte until the last two seasons. So, I think that we could absolutely see that, and it's why I want to be ahead of
7:36market on James Cook. Similar deal with Damarion Hampton. He was my 2.07, a guy that in that first video, I was a
7:43bit squeamish about, right? Where he had an up-and-down rookie year. He was injured. He had one game where he just went off against
7:51some bad defenses. I believe it was the Giants his rookie year where he just had an absolute blow-up game versus them.
7:56And then if you rostered him, you remembered it was a frustrating experience, right? Najee Harris tears his Achilles and it's like,
8:03all right, it's wheels all the way up for Amari and Hampton. I looked through his game logs here. 8.1 points in week
8:08one, 3.5 in week two. He did have 24.9 PPR points versus the Denver Broncos.
8:12Then of course, he does shred the Giants. But then outside of that, it's up and down. He's getting hurt. But I just think you have to kind of
8:21see the upside with Amari and Hampton.
8:24We already covered it a bunch with Ryan Heath in our new play callers on new offenses video with Mike McDaniel going
8:30to the Chargers. I implore you to check it out. I think it's one of the better videos I've ever done. But you can see
8:35after talking with Ryan, after kind of doing my own research, I've only drafted him 2.4% of the time.
8:40My mission for the rest of this draft season will be to get that Amari and Hampton percent drafted number two 10% plus. Now of course, this is over on
8:49Underdog. If you want to make sure you're drafting Amari and Hampton over there, if you want to use my rankings, you can find that on the Patreon,
8:53patreon.com/ronstewart.
8:55Use promo code Ron. And when you play $5, you will get $50 to use on the site.
8:59I'll link that in the description and the comment section down below. I should be doing a draft stream sometime this week. If this video goes up Tuesday
9:05nights, I'm thinking Wednesday or Thursday we'll go live and do a draft stream. Make sure you hop in there. But with Amari and
9:12Hampton, it's just a matter of zooming out, right? This offense is really good.
9:15The Chargers are projected for the 13th most points, the 10th best offensive line. You look at what this offense was with Joe Alt last year. They were third
9:22in EPA per play per Bill Barnwell here.
9:26And then they were 26 without him. So now we get Joe Alt healthy. We get Rashawn Slater healthy.
9:31You get Mike McDaniel slotted in here where if we look at the chart that we were talking through with Ryan Heath,
9:38Mike McDaniel's in the upper right quadrant in terms of fantasy points per game and volume per game to the running back position. It's really as simple as
9:48draft the Chargers running backs. I even think there's meat on the bone for Keon Mitchell and Kamani Vidal. I think all
9:52of these guys you can draft them. And with Amari Hampton, yes, it feels expensive, but you're paying for the year two breakout. We look at again a
10:00Ryan Heath graphic here. The fantasy performance by career year. Year two, year one to year two is the biggest jump that a running back can make. And then
10:10we could see Amari Hampton have honestly untapped upside that's like almost unmatched. Like there's some names that you can throw out in terms of
10:18some of the best fantasy seasons of all time that came in year two for these running backs. I believe the CJ2K season
10:23was year two. Uh 2016 David Johnson was a year two season. 2010 Arian Foster was his second season. Uh Jonathan Taylor,
10:30his RB1 season in 2021, that was his second season. CMC in 2018. There are multiple RB1 overall seasons that happened when a player is in their
10:39second season as a running back. I'm not saying that Amari Hampton's going to be the RB1 overall. I'm just saying that
10:45there is a ceiling here that maybe isn't super obvious. This is a player with a ton of pedigree, first-round pick. In my
10:51prospect model, he is the ninth best running back since 2017. His comps are Dalvin Cook, Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson. Super super solid,
10:596-ft, 220-lb, 4-4 speed.
11:03Can catch passes, can do it all out of UNC. And that's just kind of what is so impressive about him is he has this
11:08workhorse profile. He had the seventh most receptions per game last year at 3.6.
11:14And he joined Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Ashton Jeanty as the only running backs with 80% or more of their team's inside the five attempts when he
11:22was on the field. So when he was on the field, he got all the goal line work, he was getting receiving work. He wasn't
11:26coming off the field with plenty of games over a 75% snap share. I'll forgive the early bumps in the road, the efficiency dips,
11:33all of that. Year two breakout attached to Mike McDaniel in this offense, I'll pay whatever the market is asking me to pay because I just think that
11:42it's worth seeing how this plays out. Uh my third player rising up the ranks is Emeka Egbuka.
11:49Going from my 405 to my 310, I'm moving up seven spots here.
11:53And I started this year kind of conservative on Egbuka, right? You guys know me. I loved him in dynasty.
11:58I loved him in the redraft season last year. We were all over him. We were victory lapping like crazy through five
12:03weeks.
12:05And then he fell off. But I've kind of reevaluated things from going from all let's just keep it measured, let's just stay in market with
12:12ADP, you know, he's a year two breakout candidate, but Godwin's there, there's new coaches involved here, was Egbuka just kind of a flash in the pan and now
12:20he's not so great. But this is now somebody I just want to be on. This is somebody I want on my teams.
12:25I want to make a target. Uh we loved him as a rookie. He was my prospect analyst wide receiver two coming out of that
12:30draft. I know that everyone has kind of saw it as oh well Egbuka's a tier below Tideroll McMillan and Travis Hunter up
12:36top. For me, I had him in the same tier as those guys as a prospect. He comes out of Ohio State. He had multiple
12:42productive seasons next to NFL caliber players like Marvin Harrison Jr. and even Jeremiah Smith who's a monster, Carnell Tate as well.
12:50These Ohio State guys, they more often than not are awesome. Egbuka was also a five-star recruit. He just has all the
12:54pedigree in the world. Really, really awesome player. And I do just think through five games, this is an elite list to be a part of. It is Puka Nacua,
13:02Randy Moss, Egbuka, Malik Nabers, Ja'Marr Chase for most PPR points ever through a wide receiver's first five games. That is throughout the entire span of football
13:12history. Uh even during that stretch his per route stuff was good. It wasn't a fluky production profile. Uh this is the
13:19rookie receiver report. If you guys are new here, make sure you subscribe during the season. This is my favorite piece of
13:23content to make where we track all of the rookie receivers and running backs and tight ends. You just kind of keep
13:28track of how they're doing. But, a 21.2% targets per route run, that's great.
13:312.49 yards per route run is absurd. 9.5% first downs per route run is a little bit lower, but still a fine range to be
13:37in. And he was tied with Ted Ginn Jr.
13:39for the best PFF grade. Now, of course, he craters after then, finishes outside the top 24 in points per game.
13:47And I hate to just be like, "Oh, well, there was injuries." But, that's kind of what I'm going with here. We have D.P.J.
13:52saying Meco Ibooka suspect week six hamstring had real hit 2025. Pre-injury, he was the wide receiver three, post wide receiver 43. In terms of
14:01post-injury, he was the wide receiver 43. Also coincided with Baker drop-off and injuries. Project a rise in 2026.
14:07And we can see from this new quarterback show, Baker Mayfield is banged up as well. Through five weeks, Baker was the
14:12QB3 with a 21.3 points per game. Ibooka was the wide receiver three at 20.5 points per game.
14:18Baker finished outside the top 12 quarterbacks. Ibooka finished outside the top 24 wide receivers. The whole offense collapsed. Everybody got banged
14:25up. If you guys remember Ibooka, I remember being like super sad. Week six happens, he injures his hamstring, and it's like, "Well, Ibooka's going to be
14:31out the next four weeks." Then he just plays the next week, kind of like fought through it. And I think it really did
14:35hurt his season. He just didn't look right the rest of the way. And I want to bet on Ibooka as a year two breakout
14:40candidate. I know that year three is very much in vogue right now. We had JSN last year. And then, of course, you had
14:45Brian Thomas, Skyy Moore, Wan'Dale Robinson, all of these guys let you down in year two. But, that doesn't mean, historically, that year two wide
14:52receivers aren't good. Since 2019, we have had 19 year two wide receivers hit 16 plus points per game. 16 points per
14:59game would have been the wide receiver nine last year.
15:02You've had Josh Gordon, OBJ, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Hakeem Nicks, Allen Robinson, A.J. Green, JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu Smith-Schuster was like, "You guys I I don't know
15:11how long you guys have been in the fantasy space for, but JuJu was the poster boy for the year two breakout."
15:16He was a monster, of course. The rest of his year goes or rest of his career goes the the it did, but he was one of those
15:21guys, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Amon-Ra St.
15:24Brown in year two.
15:26Why not Omecca Abuka? He goes to the Zack Robinson offense or I mean he's still in Tampa, but Zack Robinson comes
15:32to him.
15:33And Zack Robinson has been dealt a really shitty hand in terms of Michael Penix and Kirk Cousins. And we talked about this with Ryan Heath, but Zack
15:40Robinson in this during snap motion rate chart, he is up there behind only Mike McDaniel. And on these kinds of plays with during snap
15:49motion, Baker Mayfield is second behind only CJ Stroud in an increase in his adjusted net yards per attempt. So, this is a really strong marriage of Zack
15:58Robinson and Baker Mayfield. I think that the whole offense takes a step forward here and bounces back. And then you also have
16:03the narrative of Zack Robinson was on the Ram staff with Cooper Kupp. And we're already getting reports from Zack Robinson saying he's very similar to a
16:13Cooper Kupp just in terms of the way that his brain works with the game of football and natural instincts. I'm not
16:17saying that Abuka's going to be Cooper Kupp, but there's so much upside here. I think that when everybody's healthy, Abuka has
16:24like the floor of being a top 24 guy and then has a ceiling of being who we saw through five weeks where it was like,
16:29"Okay, is this guy going to be in Jefferson Chase conversation?" I know that that's crazy to say right now, way removed from what happened, but through
16:37five weeks, that's what it was looking like. I know that 30-year-old Chris Godwin is there.
16:41There's also something to be said that uh Matt Harmon's been harping on this.
16:45Zack Robinson keeps saying that Godwin likely is going to take the slot role and then X is going to probably be
16:51Jalen McMillan or Ted Heath, and then Abuka is going to be this off-the-line Z, which is really awesome. Last year he
16:56kind of got typecast to play the X, especially when Mike Evans went out. X is going to be on the boundary playing
17:01against press man coverage. Abuka in college was really more of a slot flanker receiver playing out of position last year as a rookie. It seems like
17:08this year he will be playing his natural position of off-the-line Z flanker slot uh sort of like rotation receiver, which I
17:17think is going to really help him this year. The Then my fourth player moving up the rankings, Cam Skai Moore.
17:24Goes from my 506 to my 409. I moved him up nine spots. Now, this is the only one you can point at and be like,
17:29"I guess that I moved him up because of positive injury news, but really and something that I pride myself on is that I will never sit down to write a
17:37video and if I have a player in mind and I'm like, "Well, let's make Cam Akers a guy that I'm fading this year." And then if I
17:46start to write his profile out and I'm like, "Uh, maybe I shouldn't be fading this guy."
17:53Then I'm not going to keep him in the video. I'm going to just change and find somebody else. So, I never force a
17:58player into a video just to say, "Oh, well, we got to get five fades out today." So, I started writing up Cam
18:03Akers out of bow and I was like, "I don't think I could have him in a do not draft video. I
18:07think that he's probably accurately priced." Now, I'm still behind the market, but he's not someone I'm going to be fully fading. As you guys know, I
18:13loved Cam Akers last year.
18:16It was absolutely heart-wrenching when he got hurt. Uh, he was somebody that was smashing for us as like a 10th round
18:22pick. Now, what really concerns me is that he had a pretty much a broken ankle that was pointed 90° and he got a
18:32tightrope surgery as Dwayne McFarland outlines here, which has been unkind to a lot of players. Godwin, Mark Andrews, Tony Pollard, Cooper Kupp, uh, all had
18:40down years coming off of the tightrope surgery. I guess Cooper Kupp not so much, but everybody else absolutely zapped. But, we're already getting
18:46positive news that he's going to be full go for training camp. He's going to be full go for week one.
18:52Maybe he lose some effectiveness, right?
18:54Maybe he's not as good as he once was.
18:56Maybe he starts slower. Maybe he has re-injury risk, but it all feels pretty baked in.
19:01Something I've been doing and you'll definitely see this more in upcoming videos is I've been aggregating my favorite ranking sources. This is from
19:08Mike Clay over at ESPN, Rich Reebar over at Sharp Football Analysis, and Dwayne McFarland over at Fantasy Life.
19:15This is the half PPR projections across all three put into an average and then you have every single running back getting drafted in the top 50 over on
19:23Underdog. You can see Kyren, Javonte and Etienne, right? This is a range of running backs getting drafted in the, you know, pick 30 to 36. So, we're
19:31talking like mid to late third. Scat back is in that same range, right? Right around 12 points per game is his
19:36projection, getting drafted at pick 43.
19:39So, you're already getting like a 10-pick discount, like a round discount on Cam Akers.
19:45I imagine his projection here is even kind of impacted by the injury. We're already getting a lot of things baked in that in the
19:53fourth round he's probably a fair pick, right? His ADP is 43.
19:57409 would be 36 plus nine.
20:01Four is 45. So, I'm like two spots lower than ADP, but it's tough to be much lower than that.
20:07It just seems very fair. The injury's already baked in. And when we're drafting a guy like Cam Akers, it's for this role on a Giants offense that is
20:15like fringe top 20 in projected points, fringe top 20 in offensive line. Of course, Andrew Thomas is an absolute monster. And when we're looking for
20:23running back scoring, we want goal line role and receiving. Last year in five games where he played over half the snaps, he
20:30had 100% of the backfield inside the five or inside the 10 carries, not even inside the five, inside the 10 carries
20:36and a 15.1% target share RB5. He averaged 20 points per game over that span from Ryan Heath.
20:42If he has that role, even if he's not as effective, that 20 points per game goes down to like 15, he's still a huge hit
20:48at his ADP. Yes, there's downside of injury, but he's just somebody I have to move up just given what his role is and
20:54how well he's going to project in that role. Then our fifth player moving up the ranks is going to be David
20:59Montgomery. And I'll give you another one. He was next to Scat back. It was him and Scat back in that fade video. And then I started
21:06writing up David Montgomery, and I'm like uh.
21:08I only I can fully fade David Montgomery. Now, he is somebody that you would think on the surface, this is a
21:13dead zone back, right? This is somebody that is projected for high volume on a mid Houston Texans offense. He goes from
21:19the Lions to the Texans, and he's just kind of the classic, okay, he's going to be the RB1 in a new situation, give him
21:24all the projected volume, dead zone back. Well, he's not that expensive. Like, fifth round seems pretty reasonable for him.
21:31This is somebody that you can go, let's say you go Gibbs in round one, right? 1 2 3. Yeah, you go Gibbs in round one,
21:39and then Montgomery could be your RB2 uh in the beginning of round five, end of round four. And to me, that seems pretty
21:45reasonable.
21:46Uh I'm moving him up from my 510 to my 503. I'm moving him up seven spots here.
21:51The peripherals aren't great, right?
21:53Houston is projected for the 19th most points isn't bad, but the 28th offensive line, but I would say that was a similar
22:00spot for Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon was never all that efficient over on the Bengals.
22:03He goes from the Bengals to the Texans, and then in that year, he was amazing.
22:07He was like 18 points per game, 17 points per game. And Zane Denani outlines it here, kind of showing what Joe Mixon's role was in 2024.
22:1680% plus of the rushing attempts, of the running back targets, the opportunity share.
22:21He was a monster. Essentially saying that all of those opportunity based metrics, he was first or second.
22:28They would be first or second in most NFL seasons. Yes.
22:32Woody Marks is there. Uh Mixon had Dare Ogunbowale. Maybe Woody Marks is a little bit better, but still, Woody Marks is a day three pick. Last
22:39year, his efficiency was pretty brutal.
22:40I'm not really holding my breath that Woody Marks is going to be anything. And I think that if you want to go a little
22:44bit deeper, this is more of like a narrative style play where I just think DeMeco Ryans, after seeing what C.J. Stroud was down the stretch
22:52last year, and kind of what they were getting from Nick Chubb and Woody Marks, and just like this dysfunctional backfield, I think he just wants to get
22:59back to smashmouth football. We have an elite defense. We're to line up, beat your teeth in, and then run the football
23:05down your throat. And that's just what he probably envisions for David Montgomery. So, I just think that David Montgomery's going to get all the work.
23:11I think you can kind of look at what Joe Mixon did in 2024 and say, "Well, I think like 18 points per game is
23:19probably like the ceiling for David Montgomery." But, we saw with Joe Mixon in a role where the offense wasn't spectacular. Joe Mixon wasn't catching a
23:25ton of passes. He was just getting all the volume, all the touches, all the goal-line work. And I think that we're
23:29going to see that for David Montgomery.
23:31He's also an underrated talent where in 2020 he was the RB6 at 17.7 points per game on the Bears. He had 50-plus
23:37catches in that season. I think he's an underrated receiver as well. He had 2.24 yards per out run in 2024 on the Lions.
23:44So, not last year, the year before that.
23:462.24 yards per out run on a 30-plus catch season is pretty absurd for a running back. And not only that, he was
23:52behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown among Lions pass-catchers. So, Jameson Williams a yards per out run demon, LaPorta was there, Gibbs was there.
24:01Really crazy. So, I do think that David Montgomery like they they traded for him to be their guy. I think they're going
24:06to run it till the wheels fall off in year one, figure it out later. I think he's somebody that you can draft in
24:12round five, round four. Uh kind of similar to I'm trying to think of the This This reminds me It's of course like
24:18different. Like this isn't somebody going from a new team, but uh Josh Jacobs on the Raiders in like 2022 uh was a very similar profile to this
24:26where like he wasn't super sexy. We were drafting him like somewhere between like fifth and seventh round. Uh he got all
24:31the touches. He was really good that year. I could see that for David Montgomery. Then another one, we have Parker Washington.
24:39This is one that would be a very classic me not liking this player. I moved him from my 707 to my 605, up 14 spots. Now,
24:48even Dwayne says here that he's not pronouncing this as some in-depth study that he believes 100%. But, what I'm saying is I think an old me would say,
24:56"Oh, well, Parker Washington was a flash in the pan." And you can kind of look back at other flash in the pans like
25:01Travis Fulgham and Hunter Renfrow's listed here, Rashard Matthews, Marquise Goodwin, Marcus Wheaton, Russell Gage, Dontario Jenkins, these guys who are day
25:09three picks and just kind of pop off the second half of a season. But, with Parker Washington, I'm not as willing to say that it was a
25:18fluke. This is somebody that was a day three pick, but an analytical darling day three pick out of Penn State, was an
25:25early declare. And as much as I love Brian Thomas Jr., I think a bounce back is coming for Brian Thomas Jr., there's also a situation
25:33where Parker Washington is just now the best receiver on this team. As crazy it is to say out loud, this is a Jaguars team that, unlike
25:41Michael Wilson, right? Michael Wilson now has a whole new coaching staff he needs to prove his worth to.
25:46Parker Washington is still with Liam Cohen. Liam Cohen saw how dominant Parker Washington was down the stretch of the season. I think that that is
25:52going to carry over. Also, instead of Michael Wilson, where there's this unsustainable passing volume and Jacoby Brissett issue on the Jaguars, this is
26:00one of the better passing offenses in the league. They were sixth in points scored last year. I love Trevor Lawrence. I love Liam Cohen. I want
26:06pieces of this passing offense, and I'm not willing to overlook Parker Washington. If you look at these six games where all of these players played
26:13together, Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, Brevin Strange, and Brian Thomas, we have a decent sample of what we're looking at. Parker Washington looks a
26:21lot like Jayden Reed. He looks a lot like Let me actually get this out of the way for you guys. He looks a lot like
26:27Jayden Reed and Josh Downs as a part-time receiver, right? You see up there 67% route share, but the per route metrics are so good that I'm willing to
26:37buy in, right? Targets per route run kills everybody, 29%. Team percent of receiving yards kills everybody at 33%.
26:45Yards per route run 3.53 is nuts. That is a Puka Nacua level number. First read share 26%. First downs per route run,
26:5313.25%. Absurd across the board. Now, he does have a high slot rate, and that's where he kind of gets that Josh Downs
26:59comp, that Jayden Reed comp. But, even before this stretch, he was rotated on the outside. So, I'm optimistic he can play on the outside, in the outside. It
27:07really just comes down to who these Jaguars deploy in two wide receiver sets, whether that's Brian Thomas and Kadarius Myers, or Brian Thomas and
27:14Parker Washington, or Parker Washington and Kadarius Myers. Who knows how that's going to shake out. You're kind of paying to figure out with these Jaguars
27:20wide receivers. But, this offense is going to be so good, and the passing game's going to be so good, I'm willing
27:24to pay to find out with these guys you are drafting as a flex option. So, it wouldn't be shocking to me for Parker
27:31Washington to have a late career breakout as a day three pick. I just don't think you can put the genie back
27:36in the bottle with how strong he finished last year. In that six-game sample, 16.8 points per game, pretty much after the bye week last year, uh,
27:43you can expand it to bigger. He was just nails. He was awesome. Uh, and I just don't think you can be like, "Oh, well,
27:50it's not going to carry over." Uh, I think it very much is. The beat is already all over him in terms of the
27:55local beat reporters. You can take that for whatever you want. Uh, I think the key to 2026 fantasy football is going to
28:01be predicting how this receiver room shakes out. Uh, I'm probably going to be putting most of my chips on Parker Washington and Brian Thomas, and I think
28:09Kadarius Myers will be the guy that I'm not drafting very much of. But, I could see any of these guys being league
28:14winners, even Travis Hunter late. I'm sprinkling in in best ball. And then, the last player moving up the rankings is Xavier Worthy. He goes from my 903 to
28:23my 804. He gets moved up 11 spots. And this one isn't anything profound. This is very simply, we look at fantasy
28:29breakouts by career year. Year three is the year. Now, I will say you do see year two is still pretty high there when
28:35it comes to the Amuka Ebuka stuff. Or, Emeka Egbuka. I don't know why I'm struggling all over the place. But, we have this with Xavier Worthy, a year
28:43three breakout candidate attached to Patrick Mahomes. You can kind of explain away his down year, too. We have this from Adam Levitan highlighting that the
28:50Chiefs didn't add help in free agency at wide receiver. They didn't draft a wide receiver until round five, Cyrus Allen, who's like a fun late round dart throw,
28:58but essentially, the Chiefs kind of gave Xavier Worthy a stamp of approval that we're going to ride with him in year
29:05three. We spent the first round pick on him. This article that he's highlighting here says the team limited Worthy's routes a year ago to protect him after
29:13his game one labrum injury. I would tell you that we kind of after that we were afraid to do certain things with Worthy,
29:17Reid said. So, I think him coming back healthy, I think opens up that whole picture you saw during training camp. We
29:22had a whole bunch of different routes in there. Then on top of that, I hate to go crazy with this. He won the OTA MVP for
29:28whatever that is worth, but I think you can kind of just explain away his year two. You can say year three breakout,
29:34clean slate. He'll have plenty of opportunity on a Chiefs offense attached to Patrick Mahomes. And there's something to cling onto in the NFL,
29:40right? There's other guys in the same draft guys you can't really do that with, right? Whether that's like Zay Flowers or
29:45uh Keon Coleman, but you can cling onto a Xavier Worthy. You have this stretch from his last seven games of 2024 to 2025.
29:53So, it's essentially like the last couple games of the regular season, the playoff run, and then the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. Uh he was at 2.28
30:02yards per route run, 24% targets per route run, 11.5% first downs per route run, 84.3 PFF grade with a 21.6 point per game total over that span. I'm
30:13not saying that's what he's going to be.
30:14I'm just saying that there is some upside. He has already showed enough to then bet on him again. So, Xavier Worthy
30:22is somebody I want to be drafting this season, but that is seven players that yes, some of them have new news coming
30:28out or uh injury optimism, but for a lot of them it's just that I've been doing drafts. I've been drafting enough of
30:33these guys. I've been doing a little bit more research here and there. I'm just saying these are guys I got to move up. I I
30:38need to be drafting more of them. I need to be ahead of market on them. Seven players moving up the rankings for this
30:442026 season. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new.
30:48Get the entire rankings over at patreon, patreon.com/ronstewart.
30:52Get my rankings, you can upload them to Underdog for yourself to then draft on there. But if not, appreciate you all
30:57for watching and I will see you all in the next one.
31:02>> [music]

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