VideoFrom Ron Stewart
7 Running Backs with Legendary Upside in 2026 Fantasy Football
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
24 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 13, 2026
Published
Thu, August 13, 2026
14
Player insights
14
Players mentioned
Topics
Austin EkelerBijan RobinsonBucky IrvingChase BrownChristian McCaffreyDe'Von AchaneDerrick HenryJahmyr GibbsJames CookJonathan TaylorJosh JacobsKenneth Walker IIIKyren WilliamsSaquon Barkley
Player analysis
Player insights
Austin Ekeler
PositiveProjection5:58
Austin Ekeler is cited by Ron Stewart as a 'legendary' running back based on his 2022 season, where he exceeded high draft investment costs to deliver elite fantasy value.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveProjection1:45
Bijan Robinson is categorized as a 'legendary' running back based on his 2025 season, which exceeded wins-above-replacement expectations and provided high-end fantasy impact. Ron Stewart ranks Robinson among the top legendary upside candidates alongside Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs, noting that while his ceiling projection is slightly lower than the others, he still possesses enough upside to pay off at his current ADP. He is placed in the highest echelon of running backs alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and Jonathan Taylor.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeBust0:41
Bucky Irving is identified as a 'landmine' from the previous season, as his performance failed to meet the high expectations required of early-round running back selections.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue12:10
Ron Stewart highlights Chase Brown as a high-value legendary upside candidate; he holds the fifth-highest ceiling projection (20.8 PPG) among RBs but is drafted as the RB9. Brown is the only non-top-four RB who clearly exceeds his draft price, supported by his 21 PPG average in games where Joe Burrow started and finished last season. Stewart is considering moving him up to the 13th overall pick.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveProjection0:18
Ron Stewart identifies Christian McCaffrey as a historical benchmark for a 'legendary' running back season, citing his 24 points per game in 2023 and his 2025 performance as examples of players who significantly increased a fantasy manager's win rate. McCaffrey is included in the elite tier of running backs with a top-tier ceiling projection, placing him in the highest echelon alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Jonathan Taylor.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeBust21:06
Ron Stewart identifies Devon Achane as the worst legendary upside candidate on the board, citing significant concerns regarding the offense, Malik Willis, Bobby Slowik, and the offensive line. Achane possesses the lowest ceiling projection of the group and is considered a fade at his 18th overall ADP.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveValue13:55
Ron Stewart views Derrick Henry as a potential league winner at his 19th overall ADP. While his 1.5 target projection is low, reports of him being active in the screen game suggest he could reach the 2.5 target threshold needed to hit the 19.9 points per game required for legendary upside. Stewart is moving Henry up his rankings, placing him ahead of AJ Brown and Drake London.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveProjection7:21
Ron Stewart identifies Jahmyr Gibbs as the only running back currently satisfying all criteria for a legendary season, including 23 points per game, 22 touches per game, and 5-6 targets per game. Gibbs is a top-tier candidate with a ceiling projection of 24.7 points per game, placing him in the highest echelon alongside Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, and Jonathan Taylor.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveValue13:56
Ron Stewart is increasingly bullish on James Cook, moving him to the top of his tier ahead of Ashton Genty and potentially as high as the 1.09 overall pick. Cook plays in the second-highest projected offense, and his path to legendary upside involves increasing his target share; he averaged 3.7 targets per game after Joe Brady took over play-calling from Week 11 onwards.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveProjection0:18
Jonathan Taylor is highlighted as a legendary running back candidate who provided high-impact value, specifically noting his performance in 2021 and 2025 as seasons that exceeded draft-position expectations. Ron Stewart classifies Taylor as a clear legendary upside candidate, citing his 21.3 ceiling projection and his proven ability to hit 23+ points per game in his current offense. He is placed in the highest echelon of running backs alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Christian McCaffrey.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeValue3:21
Josh Jacobs is used as a historical reference point for draft-round performance, specifically noting his success as a running back drafted in the fifth round.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveRole17:42
Ron Stewart compares Kenneth Walker's move to the Chiefs to historical bellcow situations like Brian Westbrook or LeSean McCoy. Stewart expects the Chiefs to utilize Walker as a primary back, similar to how teams integrate a 'new shiny toy' into their offense.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeValue3:24
Kyren Williams is cited as a historical example of a high-impact running back found on the waiver wire rather than through early-round drafting.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeBust0:41
Saquon Barkley is labeled a 'landmine' for the previous season, with Ron Stewart noting his 2024 performance resulted in a negative wins-above-replacement value relative to his draft position. While he averaged 14.5 points per game and was a fringe RB1, he hurt fantasy teams because he was drafted too highly. Stewart categorizes him in the 'long shot' tier for the future, noting that while his 2024 production was buoyed by unsustainable long touchdowns and limited receiving work due to Jalen Hurts, there is potential for increased receiving usage and fewer 'tush push' goal-line scenarios.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and a tough reality we all have to grapple with is
0:06only one person in your fantasy football league is going to win. In a 12 team league, that means you have an 8.3%
0:11chance of winning it all. But the easiest way to increase those odds is by drafting a high-end running back in the
0:18early rounds. Last year, that was Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor pretty much doubling your implied chance to win. This is the idea of don't draft
0:26an early round RB without legendary upside coined by Pat Karine. and it's one that we subscribe to on this channel. The idea is that the upside is
0:33very clear. We see these high-end running backs absolutely crush. But the downside is also obvious. Last year in this range, you had the landmines of
0:41Ashen Genty, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, all cutting your expected win rate in half. So in this part of the draft, you need to be prioritizing
0:49upside because the downside can be crippling. It feels obvious, but championing your legendary running back at the top of your draft is one of the
0:58most important decisions of your draft.
1:00When we pick this running back, we have to be intentional. So, today we go on a mission to find this year's Christian
1:05McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Bejian Robinson, the legendary running backs of 2026. We're going to compare historical data, find what they've looked like in
1:14the past, and then project forward to who I believe are the best candidates in 2026. We have seven names I feel really,
1:21really good about. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new. Now, first we have to define what a
1:26legendary running back season is. Of course, I do want to give all the credit in the world. Again, we talked about him
1:30at the top. Pat Karine, check him out.
1:32He has the legendary upside where he has all of his rankings and everything there. He is the originator of this concept back in 2021. This is just my
1:40take on it. So, a legendary running back is one that has about 22 plus points per game and juices your win rate. We saw
1:46that at the top here in terms of how these players are affecting your team.
1:50But we can go a little bit deeper than that. So when we talk about the early round, we are really good at drafting
1:56the high-end running backs. Over the last five seasons of the 14 running back to hit 20 plus points per game, you have
2:01eight of them in round one, three of them in round two, Josh Jacobs in round five, and Kairen Williams off of
2:06waiverss. But I think we can do a little bit better than 20 plus points per game or 22 plus points per game. It's a
2:12little bit broad and it doesn't account for the impact of getting say 22 plus points per game at the first overall
2:19pick or at the back half of the second round like you got with Jonathan Taylor last year. It's not weighted the same.
2:25So, we created a wins above replacement metric war. It is nothing crazy. I don't want to go into the entire word for word
2:32of how I built it out, but it is in the strategy video. I'll link it up top if you want to watch me break it down from
2:37the ground up of how we landed on this wins above replacement metric. But what it allowed us to do is we can take
2:43points per game at running back. We can then compute that into wins above replacement to, you know, what is a running back worth next to his
2:50replacement level players. How impactful is that? How impactful is it against the tight ends, wide receivers, and quarterbacks in a given season? And then
2:56we could also chart out your expected wins above replacement based on your draft position and get a nice little curve here. So we can see who is giving
3:04you the same impact of say a 23 plus point per game scorer first overall might have a similar impact to a guy
3:10scoring 19 points per game 24th overall.
3:13And I think that's been something holding this video back in years past is we have just been okay who can finish as
3:18the RB1 overall. But it doesn't take into account the fact that if you draft a running back in the back half of the
3:24second round whether it's the 20th overall pick or the 21st overall pick you don't need that running back to finish at the RB1 overall. You just need
3:31him to crush his draft price. So to define a legendary running back season, what I did is I took wins above
3:36replacement. I charted it over your wins above replacement based on your draft position. And then anybody who could clear that overexpectation number by one
3:43or more, essentially giving you an extra win above replacement on top of an already monstrous season qualified as a legendary running back. I think that
3:50that checks out. We have Christian McCaffrey 2025, his 24 point per game season in 2023. We have JT last year, Seaquan in 2024, JT in 2021, Eckler in
4:002022, and Bejon in 2025. I wanted it to be an exclusive list over the last 5 years because I wanted it to be the high
4:07impact players. Again, it's pretty crazy, but we had three of them in 2025 between Macaffrey, JT, and Bejon. It's the first year on this list over the
4:15last five years where we had multiple running backs, not only just one, but we had three of them in 2025. And now we
4:22get the nerdy stuff, which is this. This is each of those legendary seasons charted over their wins above replacement expectation line based on
4:29where they were drafted. You can see based on where you're drafted, you're expected to have a certain amount of impact and then a legendary season is
4:36exceeding that by one or more wins above replacement. And just as an example, you can see Saquon last year his minus.7
4:42wins above replacement over expectation is because he was drafted early. Yes, he had 14.5 points per game. He was relatively healthy and was a fringe RB1,
4:51but he hurt your team because you drafted him so highly. If you drafted Saquon somehow someway, he made it to you in the middle of the third round, he
4:59would have been a fine pick. But based on how much you invested in Saquon, he hurt your team. On the other end of
5:04this, because of how much you invested in JT, Saquon, McAffrey, Eckler, they all exceeded even the high investment, making them legendary running backs by
5:13our definition. And the reason why this is so important again is because the downside is huge. We want to be hunting
5:19those legendary seasons because the landmines in front of you are this Christian McAffrey in 2024 season where if we look at the round one and two
5:28running backs and wide receivers over the last five seasons, the five worst busts by wins above replacement over expectation were all running backs. If
5:37you want to shoot for floor, just grab a receiver. Of course, no one has a 100% safe bust proof floor, but overall wide
5:45receivers crowd the wins above replacement over expectation line a lot more closely than the wide range of the running backs. So now we know, sure, a
5:55legendary running back has one plus wins above replacement over expectation, but we need to be shooting for a target. So what I then charted is the point per
6:03game needed at every draft slot in the first two rounds to exceed a one plus wins above replacement over expectation.
6:09You can see that means you need 23 points per game as the first overall pick all the way down to 19.3 points per
6:14game as the 24th overall pick. The average across the board being roughly 21 plus points per game. So that is our
6:20target we are shooting for. And that brings us here we have 32 21 plus point per game seasons since 2010 to draw data
6:29from. I then charted them out by their point per game production, their career season. So if you're in your third year
6:36that's a three. Fourth year that's a four. uh their previous high over the previous three seasons. So, just like in recent memory, what was your previous
6:43point per game high? What was your touches per game, your volume, your targets per game, your receiving upside, and then your environment, where did
6:50your team rank in terms of points scored, and where did your team rank in terms of preseason PFF offensive line rankings? And that gives us all of this
6:57data. And then we also get a overview of kind of what a legendary running back looks like on average. He is scoring 23
7:04points per game. He is in his third or fourth year in the NFL. He has previously hit 19 plus points per game.
7:10He's projected to have about 22 touches per game, five to six targets per game, a fringe top 10 scoring offense, and a
7:17fringe top 10 offensive line. Now, sadly, that doesn't really tell us much.
7:21The only guy who satisfies all of that criteria is Jamir Gibbs, the 101. He's the first overall pick for a reason, but
7:27we can dig deeper than that. So then we ran a regression analysis on what is actually statistically significant when it comes to measuring a running back
7:35ceiling. And we found of the six components that I mapped out in the six components we used in last year's video,
7:40really only three of them hold up. And it makes sense. It's targets per game, it's team scoring rank, and it's touches
7:46per game. It is volume, receiving upside, and touchdown upside. It really is that simple. Everything else is just kind of noise because you're either
7:53going to be young or you're going to have previous point per game production.
7:57that all kind of washes out. And then offensive line is noise as well because if you're scoring a lot of points, your
8:02offensive line is probably pretty good or it's at least passable. So now we have the three components we are solving for. And I think less is more when it
8:09comes to this kind of video. In years past, we've had like a 12 bulleted line checklist. And I think that it adds a
8:14lot of noise and there's some bias where maybe if you double up on volume type metrics or double up on age type
8:19metrics, you just start shifting things in different ways. I think keeping it simple is probably the way to go. So, this is an improvement on last year. And
8:26what that brings us to is a model where we took each player's projected points per game by the aggregate of ESPN, Sharp
8:34Football Analysis, and Fantasy Life. We then add an adjustment with these three components and we project out our own man-made ceiling projection for each of
8:44the first and second round running backs in 2026. And that brings us here. I I do want to say up top that this is not a
8:51perfect science. This is not a key to the world. It is just a fun exercise that I think that we can get some good
8:57takeaways from. This is your top 12 running backs by the expert consensus ranking over on Yahoo. To me, that's the sharpest ADP. And these are the running
9:06backs going inside of the top two rounds here sorted by their ceiling projection.
9:10You can see their projected points per game is just simply the average of ESPN Fantasy Life and Sharp Football. And then the average from those three
9:16sources in terms of touches per game, their projected targets per game, and then whatever their Vegas implied team total is from Sharp Football Analysis
9:24for where their offenses are going to rank in terms of points scored. But we can take it one step further. If you
9:29remember this from before, not all legendary running back seasons are created equally. 23 points per game at the first overall pick is what you need
9:37to hit a legendary season of plus one wins above replacement over expectation.
9:41but you can get all the way to the 24th pick with 19.3 points per game and have the same cost adjusted impact. So what
9:50we did is we took our ceiling point per game projections and we mapped it out against the Yahoo expert ranking which
9:55to me is the sharpest home league ADP and then we took the points per game you would need at each of those draft slots
10:02to hit a legendary point per game season. So with Jamir Gibbs 24.7 is his ceiling point per game projection. what he needs at first overall to hit a
10:11legendary season is 23 points per game.
10:13His ceiling projection outscores that by 1.7, pretty much giving him the stamp of approval that yes, this is a legendary running back that is getting drafted
10:21first overall and he can still have that impact in that draft slot. And the same thing applies all the way down this
10:28list, giving us the best legendary candidates and the ones who are maybe overpriced. Now, before I give you my takeaways of how this research affects
10:35how I'm looking at these running backs moving forward, make sure you subscribe.
10:39Make sure you leave a like if you like in-depth research videos like this for fantasy football. Now, with that being said, let's get into our takeaways for
10:45this crop of 2026 first and second round running backs, aka legendary running back upside candidates, and we're going to group them by tiers. I'm not telling
10:53you anything you don't know that Bejon, Christian McAffrey, Jamir Gibbs. Don't really worry about the rankings, but I suppose if I'm ranking for legendary
11:01upside, uh, I guess we'll go Gibbs. We will go Macaffrey, then Bejon. Bejon has a slightly lower ceiling projection than both Maccaffrey and Gibbs, but really
11:09not by much. They all have enough ceiling to pay off at their ADP. And then we'll put JT in this range as well
11:15as a clear legendary upside candidate.
11:17He hit it last year and his 21.6 six target is just barely under his 21.3 ceiling projection. And we saw it last
11:26year, he can hit 23 plus points per game in this offense. And even if that comes down, right, the offensive scoring
11:31environment is not there, he can still get right about where he needs to be in that 108 pick area. Now, here's where
11:36this gets juicy and probably who's going to be on the cover of this video. This research has really changed how I looked
11:42at Chase Brown. To me, I would have Chase Brown in this clear upside area.
11:47He's the only non-top four running back I would have in the clear legendary upside area. And here's why. You can see
11:53on the list he ends up with a 20.8 ceiling projection. That is highest after Gibbs, Bejan, McAffrey, and JT.
12:01Despite having the fifth highest ceiling projection, he goes as the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. He goes as the RB9 off the board.
12:09He only needs 20.5 points per game. I say only, but 20.5 points per game to exceed his legendary upside scenario.
12:16and he's the only non Gibbs, Bejian, or McAffrey running back that clearly exceeds his draft price in pursuit of a legendary season. And it's honestly
12:27pretty simple. He had 21 points per game in his games where Joe Burrow started and finished them last season. 21 points
12:34per game beats the points per game he needs to pay off a legendary season at his price tag. And then when we look at
12:40the other running backs on the projection list, he is the only running back listed here besides Christian McAffrey and Jamir Gibbs that has a top
12:4910 offense ranked in terms of team points for and then also has four plus targets per game. He has the combination
12:56of scoring environment and receiving upside. And then on top of that, this offensive line is very much improved.
13:03established the run. Even though it didn't make the component list in the ceiling point per game model, it's still something to think about, be wary about.
13:12This is a team that a lot of places have as a bottom five offensive line.
13:16Established the run actually really likes the Bengals offensive line, ranking them 15th overall. So, we have offensive line. We have a stretch last
13:23year where he already hit 21 points per game. We have the offensive environment where they're going to score a lot of
13:27points. He has a receiving role on this offense. It's all there. So, the biggest winner from this video, the guy who will
13:33be on the thumbnail is Chase Brown. Now, you didn't come to this video for me to tell you that Gibbs, Macaffrey, Bejon,
13:39and JT have legendary upside. So, we'll give you two more running backs I have in the plausible tier to give you seven
13:46clear candidates. These to me, I would stamp, sign, and approve as the clear legendary upside candidates in 2026. I would put James Cook here, and then I
13:55would put Derk Henry. Now, hear me out.
13:58It's very simple for both running backs.
13:59both in great offenses. We look at their team points for rank. You of course have James Cook with the second highest
14:08projected offense and then Derrick Henry with the fifth highest scoring offense by the Vegas implied totals. And it's very simple how they both get there. And
14:15it's why even though they come in with a lower ceiling projection than their price would indicate, it's because the lever to get there is so simple. They
14:23are the only two running backs on this list with less than three targets per game in their projections. All they would have to do is increase that a
14:30little bit and they both already have a steady drum beat this off seasonason that the receiving role could increase.
14:36These are guys where if we look at James Cook across the bottom here, his ceiling projection is 20.5 points per game. Just
14:42barely missing the 21.3 that he needs to hit a legendary season. And if he hits his receiving upside, he can absolutely
14:48crush. Like 20.5 points per game with as low of a receiving bar that he's setting is pretty absurd. We already have this
14:55drum beat here from Zayn Denani.
14:57Somebody who follows these beat reporters religiously saying that Pete Carmichael about James Cook said that he brings value in the run game and the
15:03pass game was also asked about expanding pass game role. Week to week penny the game plan and match up but they like
15:09getting the ball in his hands take. They didn't seem definitive to me but he did unprompted bring up the pass game
15:14abilities before being asked for more.
15:16So I'll give some credence to it. Still my RB4. Then underdog says down below with Benjamin Solic here, Bill's likely to be more pass heavy under new head
15:23coach Joe Brady, I know that he's a new head coach, right? Of course, previously he was the offensive coordinator, but now that he's the head coach, there are
15:29definitely some aspects to Shawn McDermott before him that probably wanted to play defense and run the ball.
15:34Seems like things are going to be more balanced. And then also P. Carmichael coming in from the Shawn Peyton tree could get him some more targets and
15:41receptions in the passing game. And then I also reran the numbers. If James Cook can simply just get to 3.8 8 targets per
15:48game. He hits his desired number. Right now, he's he is projected for 2.6. And if you go back to when that happened,
15:54when Ken Dorsey got fired, Joe Brady came in. From weeks 11 on, he called the plays. Over that stretch, James Cook hit
16:003.7 targets per game. Very close to what he would need for this upside scenario.
16:05And then we have Derrick Henry, who it's very clear 1.5 targets per game is super low. But I will say all he needs to hit
16:12legendary upside at his price tag of the 19th overall pick is 19.9 points per game. He already hit 19.8 points per
16:21game in 2024. Essentially would have been a legendary running back in this season. But now we get him at cheaper than we did in 2024. We already have
16:29beat reporters saying that Derrick Henry has been very active coming out of the backfield on screens. And if he gets used in the screen game and we can just
16:35get that target number from like 1.5 to 2.5 targets per game, he could be an absolute league winner at the 19th
16:42overall pick. So, he's somebody that is going in the mid to late second, even in home leagues that are pretty running
16:47back hungry. I'm really starting to come around on Derk Henry. So, those are my seven high-end legendary running back upside targets. But again, this isn't an
16:55exact science. If you're not in the top seven, it's not that you have no chance to be the RB1 overall or no chance to
17:00exceed your draft price by one or more wins above replacement. It's just to me, those are the seven most obvious and
17:06most likely. Then we get to the longot tier. These aren't guys I'm putting my stamp of approval on, but guys that I
17:11would have in the next tier to exceed their draft price. Saquon's pretty easy.
17:15Sure, it says 20.1 points per game as his ceiling. And I I kind of believe that, but we also saw him crush that in
17:212024. Of course, he crushed that in a way that was pretty unsustainable.
17:25Jaylen Herz eating the goal line work, not getting enough receiving game looks, and then just scoring all of his touchdowns from 20 or 30 or 40 yards out
17:33that year. But there is a chance, maybe there's less tush pushes, maybe there's a chance that he gets used more in the
17:37receiving game. He has outs. I don't want to overthink it with Saquon Barkley. Then we'll put Kenneth Walker very similar to 2024 Saquon or maybe
17:44it's not super obvious, but him going from the Seahawks to the Chiefs. He signs there on the I'm not going to say
17:51promise, but on the expectation he would be the bellcow there. And very similar to what they did with the Eagles where
17:56they have this new shiny toy and they use him. I think we could see that for Kenneth Walker, you can kind of throw
18:00all of this data out and just say we've seen it with Brian Westbrook, with Lehan McCoy. I want to say Lawn McCoy was
18:05actually on the data that we showed earlier for those 321 plus point per game seasons. Uh and then we'll talk about Amarian Hampton who I'll put in
18:14the last spot of the long shot tier year two with Mike McDaniel. But I'll be honest, I think that maybe he's just
18:21going to be fine. Like I think his ceiling might be 18 or 19 points per game. So maybe he's somebody that I'm
18:27going to start moving to the mid late second round area because I can see there being a little bit of a split. I
18:31know that we did get the Mike McDaniel quote. I'm not going crazy about that, but we have seen as much as McDaniel has
18:36gotten out of Devon Chan and Raheem Moster. We haven't seen him get one guy up to legendary status. He's we've seen
18:43him get 20 plus points per game or even 19 plus points per game, which I think for Marian Hampton, right? His ceiling
18:48of 19.5 points per game is fair. It's just at the 204 price tag, 16th overall, it's going to be a tough bar to climb to
18:57get to a legendary running back season on impact alone. And then we will talk about our not looking good tier. And I
19:03think the opposite end of positive, biggest takeaway here is Chase Brown.
19:08Negative. This was very sobering with Ashton Genty. Ashton Genty is the worst value on the board when it comes to shooting for upside according to this
19:16particular set of research. Essentially the issue with him, you look here uh towards the bottom in terms of ceiling projected points per game, it is Devon
19:24Achan and then it's Derrick Henry and then it's Ashton Genty who has a 16.3 projected points per game. He is one of
19:31six running backs with 20 plus touches per game in his projection, but the receiving upside could be a little bit better, right? It could be five plus
19:39targets per game, six plus targets per game. And then it's the worst offense on the board paired with Devon Achan, 28th
19:47by Vegas. And that's really the holdup is if you're betting on Ashen Genty, which I have been, it's betting on Clint
19:54Kubak to turn this thing around where Kubak comes in right away instead of them being a bottom five offense. They are more middle of the road. On top of
20:01that, I think there is some scoring touchdown upside for Ashton Genty where Clint Kubak had the second highest rush rate inside of the 10 yard line last
20:07year. So on the below average amount of opportunities they'll have in the red zone and in the green zone, they will be
20:15going to Ashton Genty on the ground. But even still, the 15 plus touchdown upside probably isn't there for him. And if
20:23he's going to hit, you need that 4.6 targets per game projection to get up to like five plus six plus. I think it's in
20:28his range of outcomes, but he's certainly priced at or above his ceiling at this point. You can see here his ceiling projection is 19.4 points per
20:37game. the points per game he would need to be a legendary running back at 13th overall is 20.8. That is the biggest
20:42difference on the board. I'm not going to move him entirely out of my first round or all the way down my board.
20:48That's not the point of this video, but it's certainly sobering and I'll be moving James Cook ahead. I'll probably be the the case between like him and
20:54Chase Brown is going to be pretty tough.
20:55I'm going to definitely move him down a tier because of the research in this video. Uh you know, maybe even putting
21:01Jefferson and Lamb ahead of Ashton Genty. Uh and then we'll talk about our last candidate here. to me the worst one
21:06on the board, Devon Achan. Uh whereas Genty has this year 2 upside. He has Kubak on his side that can maybe get the
21:15most out of this offense. I just don't believe any of that when it comes to Malik Willis and Bobby Slowick and this
21:19offensive line. So when you already map it out as him having the lowest point per game ceiling projection on the board, he's just a fade for me even at
21:26the pick of 18th overall. So just to wrap up our takeaways from this video, the top four legendary running back upside candidates. Super obvious. She
21:34didn't come here to have me say Jir Gibbs, McAffrey, Bejon, JT. What I will say is I think Chase Brown is a super
21:41clear target for me. He I might even move him up to like the 13th overall pick anywhere in the second round. He
21:46pays off as a leaguewinning legendary upside running back at his ceiling projection. Similar deal with James Cook. I'm going to move him to the top
21:54of his tier ahead of Ashton Genty.
21:55Probably as high as like the 109 overall. I'm really coming around on James Cook. A guy that I like a lot as
22:01well is Dererick Henry in these home less where he's going in the mid to late second. I'm gonna be moving him up uh
22:05probably ahead of like AJ Brown and Drake London. Uh towards the end of that like Kenneth Walker, uh Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown tier, might even move him
22:14ahead of Amarian Hampton. We'll see. Uh and then we also have Genty probably moving down a tier. And all of this is
22:21reflected over on the basement draft guide. If you want your rankings to have stuff like this in mind, make sure you
22:26check out the basementdraftguide.com. I update the rankings pretty much every day based on the research we do in all of these videos. It has my tiered top
22:33200 rankings for PPR, half PPR, superflex. You have my target rounds.
22:37You have my targets, my fades, my sleepers. You have my flex check tool to make sure you're drafting enough wide receivers through your flex that you are
22:44building a big advantage in that area.
22:46The ADP edge tool, so you can look at the high stakes ADP versus Yahoo or sleeper. Look at my rankings versus the
22:52Yahoo expert rankings and see where the values are. And you can also sync it to your sleeper league and have the draft
22:58literally cross off the names for you.
23:01It is my passion project. It is the thing that I've worked the hardest on in my entire life. Check it out. The
23:07basementdraftguide.com. I'll have a link to that in the description and the comment section down below. And then of course that's just the draft if you want
23:13to win your league. You can get my inseason content over on the Patreon.
23:16patreon.com/ronstewart with my weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, waiverwire article, dynasty rankings.
23:22You get my weekly start sit exclusive streams over there. All that and more.
23:26Check it all out in the description in the comment section down below. But thank you for watching. Subscribe if you're new. Leave a like. And I'll see
23:32y'all in the next one.
23:44Leave me as stones like this froze.
23:51my body like I'm frozen.
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