The WORST Pick in Every Round of Your Fantasy League

Pierce is consensus ADP 712 overall (Yahoo 707), but Ron Stewart ranks him 903rd as a clear avoid. Jeff Mueller (Fantasy Points) reports Pierce had talus surgery, is still walking gingerly with visible calf atrophy, and is expected to start 2026 on the PUP list. Pierce's historic 11.9 yards per target (most among WRs with 50+ targets) on a 20-yard aDOT relied on speed and verticality that an ankle injury will likely compromise. Stewart emphasizes betting on efficiency off injury is risky; Pierce is projected to function as a decoy to open up Josh Downs and Tyler Warren underneath, making him unattractive in the seventh round.

Brian Thomas is available at a lower ADP than Kyle Pitts (608 consensus, 611 ESPN in round 6) and is also mentioned as a player the source would take over Courtland Sutton in the seventh round, implying better value across multiple rounds.

Brock Purdy is cited by Ron Stewart as a late-round QB value option projecting for 17.9 points per game, nearly 40-50 picks after Drake May. He is positioned as a sharp alternative that allows draft capital to be allocated to higher-impact positional players rather than paying up for May in the fifth round.

Drake Maye (Bryce Young's successor) is ranked as QB3 by the source and is going in the fifth round where the source has him as a sixth-round pick; he is bunched in a tier with Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow, suggesting the source recommends waiting for whichever quarterback falls past ADP rather than reaching.

Caleb Williams is bunched in a tier with Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow as mid-round QB options. Ron Stewart recommends taking whichever QB falls past ADP in this tier rather than paying up for Drake Maye, suggesting that waiting for value in this tier is preferable to reaching early.

Brown is available in the same ADP range as Trey McBride (second round) and represents superior opportunity cost; the source prefers allocating second-round capital to running backs with upside rather than paying up for McBride's regressing tight end production.

The source prefers Chris Godwin over Wan'Dale Robinson for PPR floor play, even though Godwin goes later in ADP (consensus 807, ESPN 805, Sleeper 907 for Robinson). Godwin is the source's preferred alternative if seeking floor upside in this draft range, offering better value than Robinson despite the later ADP.

Christian Watson is available at a lower ADP than Kyle Pitts (who goes at 608-611 consensus/ESPN), making Watson a better value option in round 6. Ron Stewart positions Watson ahead of Pitts among available players, suggesting Watson should be prioritized over Pitts at their respective ADPs.

Ron Stewart ranks Courtland Sutton at 9.10 as WR47, well below consensus 7.02 (WR32) and ESPN 6.05 (WR29), arguing he should not be taken over Brian Thomas, Parker Washington, Jordan Addison, or Josh Downs. Stewart characterizes Sutton as pedestrian talent at best with a 19.6% target share last year and hasn't been over two yards per route run since 2019. Sutton competed with Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims, and from week two to week 11, Troy Franklin actually outproduced or outtargeted Sutton over that span. At age 31, Sutton is expected to transition to a deep threat and field stretcher role in the Broncos offense following the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle; last year Sutton led the team with 199 horizontally breaking routes (slants, corners, posts), but many of these high-volume, high-efficiency routes are projected to shift to Waddle. Stewart views him as a sacrificial X on the offense with limited upside in the seventh round, where breakout-style wide receiver profiles offer better value.

Dak Prescott is cited by Ron Stewart as a late-round QB value option going at the 76th pick, projecting for 18-plus points per game. He is positioned as a sharp alternative to Drake May, allowing draft capital to be allocated to elite positional players rather than paying up for May in the fifth round.

Ron Stewart cites Dallas Goedert as a viable floor pick in round 10 forward where tight ends can generate league-winning value.

Ron Stewart prefers paying up for Dalton Kincaid as a top-tier tight end option (alongside Brock Bowers and Tyler Warren) rather than settling for mid-round picks like Kyle Pitts. Kincaid is also mentioned as a viable floor pick in round 10 forward where tight ends generate league winners, supporting a strategy of either paying up early for elite options or waiting for late-round value.

David Njoku is cited as part of last year's tight end draft range (LaPorta to Njoku) that was a nightmare, with all those tight ends being terrible picks. This precedent informs the source's prediction that 2-3 tight ends in the current Pitts/Fannin/LaPorta/Kraft tier will also be brutal picks.

Ron Stewart ranks Devon Achane at RB12 (209th overall), 10 spots lower than consensus (RB7, 111th), projecting him as a late second-round pick rather than first-round. Despite strong 2024 production (RB5 in PPR points per game, 85 targets, 52% receiving volume—second only to Kenneth Gainwell), Stewart expects significant regression due to the Dolphins' QB transition from Tua Tagovailoa to Malik Willis. Willis has a 3.3-second career time to throw (longer than all 2024 NFL QBs except Shedeur Sanders), targets running backs only 10.2% of the time (ahead of only Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson among 74 qualified passers), and posted a 74% drop-back conversion rate versus Tua's 83%. This mirrors Breece Hall's 2024 decline (76 receptions to 36) after the Jets added Justin Fields. Additionally, Miami's bottom-five offensive line prevents Mike McDaniel from executing his signature run-design scheme that historically relied on elite line play and motion concepts with Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, and Matt Breida on the 49ers. Stewart expects Achane's receiving upside—his superpower—to be severely limited.

Drake May is Ron Stewart's worst pick in the fifth round despite projecting for 19 PPG (third-highest among QBs after Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson). Stewart argues paying up for May is inefficient because the gap to Jalen Hurts (64th pick, ~17.9 PPG) and other available QBs like Brock Purdy (40-50 picks later) is minimal. Passing on May allows access to legitimate breakout stud candidates like Tyler Warren, Treylon Henderson, Terry McLaurin, D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, DJ Moore, Jameson Williams, and Bezel Tooten, making the early QB investment a poor use of draft capital in home leagues.

Sampson is a legit receiving talent competing with Quinshon Judkins in the Todd Monken backfield; he posted the second-highest yards per route run last year among all running backs behind only Bijan Robinson and is one of the strongest day-three prospects at running back the source has evaluated. Despite being almost a lock to go day two ahead of Cam Akers and Basil Tui, he slid on draft day, creating value opportunity.

Harold Fannin is grouped in the sixth-round tight end tier (alongside Kyle Pitts, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft) that Ron Stewart predicts will produce 2-3 brutal picks this season. The source is not loving Fannin's upside as a year-two tight end in Cleveland, citing last year's tight end draft range (LaPorta to David Njoku) where all those tight ends were terrible picks. However, Fannin appeared off waivers as a league-winner opportunity last year, suggesting waiting for late-round upside swings rather than paying up early.

Ron Stewart cites Hunter Henry as a high-floor tight end option in round 10 forward that he would target before taking an upside swing, positioning him as a reliable late-round value pick in the tight end tier.

Meyers is Ron Stewart's worst pick in the ninth round (consensus ADP 901 in eighth round on ESPN and Sleeper; Stewart's WR51 ranking). Stewart doesn't even credit Meyers with a high floor due to route uncertainty. Per John Shipley (Jaguars beat reporter) and Hayden Winks analysis, Parker Washington is the favorite for all receiving categories (receptions, yards, touchdowns), and Travis Hunter will play more wide receiver than initially expected with more downfield opportunities. Meyers will see fewer snaps because Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. will get the two-wide-receiver sets, while Meyers is relegated to three-wide-receiver sets with Travis Hunter rotation. Stewart views Meyers as the odd man out with no real ceiling and prefers Stefon Diggs, Blake Corum, Jonathan Brooks, Bill Krosky, Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, Dalton Kincaid, or even a late-round QB in this range.

Jalen Hurts is positioned as a value alternative to Drake Maye; he goes off the board at the 64th pick with a projected 17.9 points per game, only 1.1 PPG less than Drake Maye's 19 PPG projection. Ron Stewart argues that paying up 40–50 picks to get Maye over Hurts is not sharp, making Hurts a strong late-round QB option that frees up draft capital for elite positional players.

Williams is cited as a legitimate breakout stud candidate that should be prioritized over Drake May in the fifth round; the source emphasizes that passing on Drake May allows access to Williams and other elite positional players like Tyler Warren, Treylon Henderson, Terry McLaurin, D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, DJ Moore, and Bezel Tooten.

Jayden Daniels is bunched in a tier with Caleb Williams, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow as mid-round QB options. Ron Stewart recommends taking whichever QB falls past ADP in this tier rather than paying up for Drake Maye, suggesting that waiting for value in this tier is preferable to reaching early.

The Broncos paid a first-round pick for Waddle and the source expects him to be the featured pass catcher in the offense. Waddle is projected to inherit the high-volume, high-efficiency horizontally breaking routes (slants, corners, posts) that Courtland Sutton led the team with last year (199 routes), positioning Waddle as the primary short-to-intermediate target in the offense.

Jaylen Warren is available at a lower ADP than Kyle Pitts (who goes at 608 consensus, 611 ESPN in round 6), making Warren a better value option. Ron Stewart notes that Pitts is going off the board ahead of Christian Watson, Marvin Harrison, Jaylen Warren, Brian Thomas, Tony Pollard, and Parker Washington—all superior value plays—despite Pitts being a fun player on the Falcons.

Joe Burrow is bunched in a tier with Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and Jalen Hurts as mid-round QB options. Ron Stewart recommends taking whichever QB falls past ADP in this tier rather than paying up for Drake Maye, suggesting that waiting for value in this tier is preferable to reaching early.

Josh Allen is the highest-rated QB in projected points per game, establishing the top tier of QB production. Ron Stewart uses him as a reference point to show that even elite quarterbacks like Allen were the only QB you could not get for free on waivers last season, illustrating that early QB investment is inefficient. After Allen, the tier drops to Lamar Jackson and then Drake Maye.

Ron Stewart ranks Josh Downs higher than Alec Pierce at this point in time, positioning Downs as the superior seventh-round pick. Stewart expects Downs to receive more opportunities underneath as De'on Jones becomes a decoy downfield following his Achilles tear recovery, suggesting increased target volume and role expansion in the Colts offense.

Jacobs is a round-three fade due to multiple compounding concerns: legal/suspension risk (4-6 game suspension possible), age (28 years old, past prime), efficiency regression from 2024 to 2025 (rushing yards over expected per attempt dropped from 0.73 to minus 0.03; regression in yards per carry, yards after contact, success rate, and stuff rate), early-season groin injury (same injury from 2024), high career mileage (2,100 touches, fourth-most among active backs behind only Henry, McCaffrey, Kamara, and Saquon), and lack of receiving upside (hasn't hit 40-plus receptions since joining Packers). The source has him as RB17 (406 ADP) versus consensus RB17 (306 ADP, as high as 211 on ESPN).

Ron Stewart cites Juwan Johnson as both a viable floor pick in round 10 forward and as a waiver-wire league-winner opportunity from last year, supporting the strategy of waiting for late-round tight end value rather than paying up early.

Walker represents superior opportunity cost in the second round compared to Trey McBride; McBride's ADP (205-207) is being used to select him over Walker, suggesting Walker offers better upside at similar draft capital.

Kyle Pitts is ranked as tight end eight by Ron Stewart but is going off the board at ADP 608 (consensus) to 611 (ESPN) in round 6, ahead of Christian Watson, Marvin Harrison, Jaylen Warren, Brian Thomas, Tony Pollard, and Parker Washington. Stewart finds this problematic because Pitts is more expensive on draft sites than both Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta despite his lower tier ranking. Stewart argues paying up for Pitts in this range is not great value, citing that last year tight ends in this ADP range (LaPorta to David Njoku) were terrible picks, and expects two to three tight ends in the Pitts, Harold Fannin, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft area to be brutal picks. Stewart prefers paying up for Brock Bowers, Dalton Kincaid, or Tyler Warren instead, or waiting until round 10 forward where tight ends generate league winners.

Lamar Jackson is the second-highest-rated QB in projected points per game, behind only Josh Allen. Ron Stewart uses him as a reference point to establish the elite QB tier and demonstrate that Drake May, while third-highest in PPG, does not justify early-round investment relative to later-round alternatives.

Burden is receiving positive news and projects better than Quinshon Judkins, making him a superior fourth-round target over Judkins.

Ron Stewart identifies Malik Willis as a significant downside catalyst for Dolphins pass-catchers. Willis has a 3.3-second career time to throw—longer than any 2024 NFL QB except Shedeur Sanders—indicating excessive ball-holding. Over his Green Bay stint, Willis targeted running backs only 10.2% of the time (ahead of only Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson among 74 qualified passers) and posted a 74% drop-back conversion rate, well below Tua Tagovailoa's 83% (eighth in the NFL). These metrics suggest Willis will severely limit checkdown opportunities and target volume for Dolphins running backs compared to the Tua-era offense.

Lloyd is gaining relevance as a backup running back with Josh Jacobs sidelined; per camp reporting, Lloyd received the bulk of first-team carries and delivered strong performance, prompting the source to move him up in their own rankings as a real contributor in the Packers backfield.

Marvin Harrison is being drafted after Kyle Pitts despite being a superior value option; the source's framing suggests Harrison should be prioritized over Pitts at their respective ADPs. Marvin Harrison is available at a lower ADP than Kyle Pitts (who goes at 608-611), making Harrison a better value option in round 6 according to the source.

Marvin Mims competed alongside Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton in the Broncos receiving corps, though his per-route and market share numbers weren't amazing. The Broncos' acquisition of Jaylen Waddle suggests the team was seeking additional receiving options beyond their existing group.

Parker Washington is available at a lower ADP than Kyle Pitts (608 consensus, 611 ESPN in round 6) and is also mentioned as a player the source would take over Courtland Sutton in the seventh round, implying better value across multiple rounds.

Judkins is a round-four fade despite being a strong prospect; he's going off the board as RB9 by consensus (409 ADP) but the source ranks him RB25 (508 ADP). The concern is his placement on the Browns, ranked 31st in offensive line and 30th in implied points per game—a bad team without receiving upside. In Todd Monken's system (which historically features two distinct roles: a rush leader and a targets leader, as seen with Henry/Hill in Baltimore, Chubb/Hunt in Cleveland, and Martin/Sims in Tampa Bay), Judkins lacks the clear receiving upside needed to succeed on a struggling offense. Dylan Sampson is the legit receiving talent behind Judkins, having posted the second-highest yards per route run last year among all running backs behind only Bijan Robinson. Judkins is also recovering from a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula; while recovery appears on track, this injury combination has historically been underestimated in the offseason and has plagued other players like Tony Pollard and Chris Godwin, suggesting it could be a bigger issue than advertised. He's being taken over superior options including Terry McLaurin, Luther Burden (receiving positive news), Jameson Williams, Laviska Shenault, Jaylen Waddle, and Colston Loveland—all of whom project better than Judkins.

Sam LaPorta is grouped in the sixth-round tight end tier alongside Kyle Pitts, Harold Fannin, and Tucker Kraft. Ron Stewart predicts that two to three tight ends in this range will be brutal picks this season, citing last year's tight end draft range (LaPorta to David Njoku) where all those tight ends underperformed significantly.

Barkley is cited as a potential second-round value if he falls to that round, representing the type of league-winner upside the source prefers over Trey McBride's regressing tight end production.

Ron Stewart mentions Terrance Ferguson as an upside swing option to take super late in the draft after securing a high-floor tight end pick, positioning him as a late-round breakout candidate.

McLaurin is cited as a legitimate breakout stud candidate that should be prioritized over Drake May in the fifth round; the source emphasizes that passing on Drake May allows access to McLaurin and other elite positional players like Tyler Warren, Treylon Henderson, D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, DJ Moore, Jameson Williams, and Bezel Tooten.

Tony Pollard is available at a lower ADP than Kyle Pitts (608 consensus, 611 ESPN in round 6), making Pollard a better value option. Ron Stewart notes that Pitts is going off the board ahead of Pollard and several other superior value plays despite being a fun player.

Travis Kelce is mentioned as cheaper on draft sites than Kyle Pitts, despite Pitts being ranked as tight end eight; this comparison suggests Kelce offers better value relative to his tier.

Trevor Lawrence was dropped early in the 2024 season but averaged 20+ points per game down the stretch and was a legitimate league winner. Ron Stewart uses him as an example of how quarterbacks can be acquired for free off waivers week-to-week rather than drafted early, supporting a strategy of waiting on the position. Josh Allen was the only quarterback you could not get for free on waivers last season, illustrating that even elite QBs can be acquired late.

Ron Stewart has Trey McBride at 303 overall, well below consensus ADP of 207 (consensus), 205 (ESPN), and 204 (Sleeper), calling him overpriced in the second round. Despite elite 2024 production (18.5 PPR points per game, only behind Kelce, Gronk, and Jimmy Graham all-time), his 694 routes ran last year (121 more than the next TE) is unsustainable. Projections from Fantasy Life, Sharp Football, and ESPN average 15.3 PPR points per game, offering only +0.3 wins above replacement over expectation at 15 PPR—falling short of league-winner threshold. Stewart emphasizes opportunity cost: at McBride's ADP, drafters are passing on Kenneth Walker, Camryn Hampton, Chase Brown, and potential Saquon Barkley availability. McBride is projected to regress back down to 15 points per game, and his ceiling doesn't justify a middle-second-round pick when high-end running backs are available.

Troy Franklin competed with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims in the Broncos receiving corps. From week two to week 11, Franklin actually outproduced or outtargeted Sutton over that span, though his per-route and market share numbers weren't amazing overall. The Broncos' acquisition of Jaylen Waddle suggests they were seeking additional receiving options beyond Sutton. Troy Franklin is cited as outproducing or outtargeting Courtland Sutton from week two to week 11, supporting the argument that Sutton is overvalued in the seventh round.

The source highlights Tua Tagovailoa's strong checkdown tendencies as a key strength that benefited Devon Achane's 2024 production. Tua ranked fourth in attempts behind the line of scrimmage and third in time to throw, creating an ideal environment for running back targets. He posted an 83% drop-back conversion rate (eighth in the NFL), meaning most of his drop-backs resulted in targets rather than throwaways or sacks. This contrasts sharply with incoming Dolphins QB Malik Willis, whose 74% conversion rate and 10.2% RB targeting rate will significantly reduce Achane's receiving volume.

Tucker Kraft is grouped in the sixth-round tight end tier (alongside Kyle Pitts, Harold Fannin, Sam LaPorta) that Ron Stewart predicts will produce 2-3 brutal picks this season, citing last year's tight end draft range (LaPorta to David Njoku) where all those tight ends were terrible picks.

Tyler Warren is Ron Stewart's preferred tight end to pay up for in the early rounds, alongside Brock Bowers and Dalton Kincaid. Stewart also cites Warren as a legitimate breakout stud candidate that should be prioritized over Drake May in the fifth round, and positions him to benefit from De'on Jones' Achilles tear recovery; as Jones becomes a decoy downfield, Warren is expected to receive more opportunities underneath with increased target volume and role expansion in the Colts offense.

Robinson is Ron Stewart's worst pick in the eighth/ninth round range (consensus ADP 807, ESPN 805, Sleeper 907), where he's being drafted over Blake Corum and Jonathan Brooks. Robinson has only 10 total touchdowns in his career and just four touchdowns last year, limiting his ceiling despite PPR upside. Stewart expects Robinson to function as a target hog similar to Cole Beasley or Khalil Shakir—a discount version of peak Jarvis Landry on the Titans offense—but won't score many touchdowns. Stewart prefers Chris Godwin (who goes later), Mekai Lemon, Josh Downs, and other receivers in this range.