0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to
0:02the basement. I'm Ron and this is the
0:04biggest fantasy football draft weekend
0:06of the entire year. And if you clicked
0:08on this video, you are cramming for your
0:10fantasy draft. So, today I am going to
0:12give you a crash course on how to win
0:14your fantasy football league in 15
0:16minutes or less. If you're new,
0:18subscribe, leave a like. Let's not waste
0:20any time and let's go position by
0:22position talking strategy. First up, we
0:25have running back strategy. Everybody
0:27knows that high-scoring running backs
0:29run fantasy football. And as a
0:31community, we are really good at finding
0:33these running backs. Last year, the top
0:3510 running backs and points per game
0:37were drafted inside of the top three
0:38rounds. The 20 plus point per game
0:41scorers at the top were all drafted
0:43inside of the first two rounds. Meaning,
0:44if you want one of the high-end guys at
0:46the position, you have to draft them
0:48early. But we want to be shooting for
0:50that 20 plus point per game upside as
0:53that is how you get the biggest impact
0:55on your team. Which leads us to the idea
0:57of don't draft an early round RB without
1:00legendary upside. A saying coined by Pat
1:02Karine. And what it means is that when
1:04you draft that running back early, you
1:06need to shoot for this year's Christian
1:08McAffrey. Last year he took your win
1:10rate of 1 divided by 12 8.3% all the way
1:13up to 22.2% 2% pretty much tripling your
1:17chance to win your league. On the flip
1:19side though, if you drafted Saquon
1:20Barkley at the 104, he took your 8.3%
1:24and cut it in half down to 3.6%.
1:27So, there are very wide ranges when it
1:29comes to taking running back early. So,
1:31we need to be swinging for upside. The
1:34way that you should be approaching your
1:35draft is it is an arms race to take
1:38these running backs in the first two
1:40rounds from Jamir Gibbs through Ashton
1:42Genty. These guys need to get wiped off
1:44the board and it's why the three and the
1:46four spot at the top of the draft are so
1:48difficult. The 103 and the 104. You take
1:50Jamar Chase, you take Puka Nakua and by
1:52the time your pick comes back around,
1:54the running backs are wiped all the way
1:56through Ashton Genty. Now, if you miss
1:58out on running back or you feel light at
2:00running back, I do still like Jeremiah
2:02Love and Bree Hall in the third round. I
2:04would call these the cornerstones of my
2:07early round running back strategy. Now,
2:10after the first three rounds, we get to
2:12the RB dead zone. And the RB dead zone
2:15is back this season from Ryan Heath
2:17here, showing that running backs are
2:19going inside the top 40 picks and inside
2:21the top 60 picks at the highest rate
2:23they have gone since 2022, pushing up
2:26the RB18, the RB19, the RB20, and making
2:29it so you have to pay up for these RB2s
2:31in the dead zone and pass on the league
2:34winning wide receivers. This can be
2:36shown here when we look at the point per
2:37game projections mapped out by ADP. Once
2:41you get past the first 37 picks here,
2:43you can see we get to what is called the
2:46RB dead zone inside of this yellow
2:48square where the wide receivers start to
2:50really clear the running backs in terms
2:52of point per game projections. And that
2:54can be visualized when we take a look at
2:57the projections mapped out by player. 10
3:00of the top 12 players by projected
3:02points per game here are wide receivers.
3:04Six of the bottom eight are running
3:06backs. The wide receivers in this round
3:07four to six range, the RB dead zone
3:09average 12.9 points per game versus the
3:11running backs at 12. We want to get our
3:14running backs in early. And then when
3:15the dead zone hits, we want wide
3:17receivers in this range or quarterbacks
3:19and tight ends. Now, yes, it's important
3:21to know that wide receivers not only
3:23outproject the running backs in the RB
3:24dead zone, but all the way through what
3:25I'm calling the flex zone. This is when
3:27you're starting to fill out your team
3:28with options to put in your flex. But
3:31it's important to note that even though
3:32the wide receivers outproject the
3:34running backs, but they have much higher
3:36upside when you're taking swings on guys
3:38in ambiguous backfields like Travis ETN
3:40last year and Javvante Williams last
3:42year. It's actually around 5 to six
3:44where even though the running back
3:45league winner rates are a little bit
3:46higher than the wide receivers. The wide
3:48receivers bust at a much lower rate and
3:50they fall all the way down to 3.2% once
3:52you get to round seven, the league
3:54winner rate at running back stays
3:55roughly the same. So we want to get our
3:57wide receivers in here. Now, based on
3:59how many running backs you took in the
4:00early rounds opens up how many of the
4:02running backs you can take shots on in
4:04this round 7 to9 area. Now, of course, I
4:06want to give a quick disclaimer to stay
4:08water and stay flexible. I say to avoid
4:10running backs in the RB dead zone, but
4:11if you only get one running back through
4:13three rounds and you're in a two wide
4:14receiver, one flex league, you might
4:16feel compelled to take a stab at a
4:18running back in the dead zone. You
4:20absolutely can. only a Sith deals in
4:22absolutes. And all of these are rough
4:24guidelines to try to stay within, but
4:25you can definitely color outside of the
4:27lines a bit as you draft. It is kind of
4:29more of an art than a science. Now, when
4:32we talk about wide receiver draft
4:33strategy, we start with winning the
4:36flex. And what that means is understand
4:38that the flex is how you win your
4:40league. When whatever strategy fits your
4:42particular league format, that strategy
4:44should be based on putting an elite
4:45player in the flex position. you hear
4:47all the time, oh, he's a low-end RB2 or
4:50flex referring to guys who aren't any
4:51good as flex players is a kind of short
4:53hand. And what I'm trying to say here is
4:55we look at these projections and you
4:57might see Bucky Irving at RB20 as a
4:59low-end RB2/flex play. That's just
5:02simply not true. His 11.7 points per
5:04game is a genuinely worse flex player
5:07than your Terry Mccclure and Luther Bird
5:09and even all the way down to Carnell
5:11Tate projecting for 12.4 points per
5:13game. Bucky Irving is not a good flex
5:15play. He is a RB2 in the dead zone. So,
5:18we want to be setting ourselves up to
5:20put wide receivers in the flex. And
5:22that's of course shown here where you
5:24can see all the way through this flex
5:26zone, which is when you're drafting wide
5:27receivers and then you're getting some
5:28wide receivers on your bench to be flex
5:30options. They all outproject the running
5:32backs. Of course, again, round seven to
5:34nine, we want to take a shot or two on
5:36these running backs with high upside.
5:37But by and large, we want to draft
5:39enough receivers in this zone to make
5:41sure that our flex is ready to roll
5:43until we get to this wide receiver cliff
5:44part where this is Jaylen Coker, the
5:47last receiver to project for 10 plus
5:48points per game. He essentially falls
5:50off a cliff. And then this is when we
5:51want to be drafting other people's RB
5:53handcuffs. I get that question all the
5:55time. Don't handcuff your own running
5:56back. You don't want to be setting
5:57yourself up for a scenario where your
5:59running back gets hurt. You want to set
6:01yourself up so that when somebody else's
6:02running back gets hurt, your team
6:04becomes a super team and a juggernaut in
6:06your league. So then the question
6:08becomes, how do we make sure we have
6:09wide receivers in our flex spot? And the
6:10way we do this is we draft wide
6:12receivers who the flex plus one or two
6:14before the wide receiver cliff. Of
6:15course, Jaylen Coker around wide
6:17receiver 50 is your wide receiver cliff
6:20this season. I actually have a tool in
6:22my draft guide, the
6:23basementdraftguide.com
6:24where you can see here if you have a
6:26team that is wide receiver, wide
6:27receiver, flex flex. So wide receivers
6:29to the flex is two wide receivers, two
6:30flex, that's four. Plus one or two
6:32before the wide receiver cliff is five
6:34to six wide receivers before the cliff.
6:37Why we want plus one and two is one for
6:39by weeks, another for injuries. But
6:41that's loose, right? Jamar Chase Nico
6:43Collins is strong enough that I I
6:45probably want to lean more towards the
6:47five, which is plus one versus six. But
6:49if you go running back, running back and
6:50let's say your wide receiver one is a
6:52mecha Ibuka. That's a scenario where I
6:54want wide receivers who the flex plus
6:55two before the wide receiver Cliff. This
6:58flex check tool in the draft guide keeps
7:00track. So here this is about four to
7:02five rounds of a draft already done. You
7:04can see I have Chase, Nico Collins,
7:05Ibuka. That is three of my five to six
7:08goal before the wide receiver cliff. And
7:10it tracks how many wide receivers are
7:12left before the cliff. Here I know we're
7:13in the middle rounds. I have 24 more
7:15wide receivers off the board until I
7:17need to reach my quota. And it's just a
7:19good tracker to make sure you are ready
7:22to roll with a strong flex. Now, you
7:24might find yourself in a spot where you
7:27just whiff and you don't get enough wide
7:29receivers through the flex and you feel
7:30weak at wide receiver after the wide
7:32receiver cliff happens. What I would say
7:33is then we are spamming rookie wide
7:35receivers. I way too often see people
7:37draft guys like Jaylen Naylor or Jawan
7:39Jennings at the end of your draft. If
7:40you're a weak receiver, it's got to be
7:42the rookies for upside. You see here
7:45every year we get rookie producers down
7:47the stretch. Whether that was Elijah
7:48Moore as a rookie, Odo Beckham as a
7:50rookie, even guys who weren't amazing
7:52pros like Tank Dell or Judu Smith
7:54Schustster, Brandon Iayuk, Jaylen Wadd,
7:57Jaden Reed, Rashi Rice, all of these
7:59guys kind of came out of nowhere as late
8:02round smashes. Here are all of my rookie
8:04wide receivers ranked outside of that
8:07wide receiver cliff. So, I like Denzel
8:09Boston, Jacobe Lane, Jordan Tyson if you
8:11have an IR spot. Cyrus Allen, Omar
8:13Cooper, Malachi Fields. All of these
8:15guys are draftable to stash on your
8:17bench and then you watch the rookie
8:18receiver report where every Monday I
8:20break down how the rookies are doing and
8:21we stash these league winners on our
8:23bench. Now, I will say too, don't be
8:25afraid to take a wide receiver early. If
8:26you don't like the running backs at the
8:28top or the running backs get drafted,
8:30you can take a wide receiver inside the
8:32first three rounds and really lock in a
8:33stud. Last year, even though the entire
8:37season was run by running backs,
8:38McCaffrey was a beast. Bejon was a
8:40beast, the two highest owned players on
8:44fantasy football championship rosters on
8:46ESPN, were Puka Nakua and JSN, the wide
8:49receiver one and the wide receiver two
8:50overall, drafted inside of the first
8:52three rounds last year. So, it's never a
8:54bad idea to lock in a wide receiver if
8:56you don't like the running backs on the
8:57board. Which then takes us to
8:59quarterback and tight end strategy.
9:01Based on how many running backs you take
9:03early goes towards how aggressive you
9:06can be at quarterback and tight end. If
9:08you go two running backs early and then
9:10you go elite quarterback and elite tight
9:12end, that's now four rounds that you're
9:14going away from wide receiver, a
9:15position we need to fill through the
9:16flex plus one or two before the wide
9:18receiver cliff. So in that scenario, you
9:20can't really afford to do the two
9:21running backs up top and the elite
9:23quarterback and the elite tight end. It
9:25kind of all comes down to how many
9:26running backs you draft early. allows
9:28you to take the luxury detour on an
9:31elite quarterback or an elite tight end.
9:32Right? If you go wide receiver, you come
9:34back around, you take a Brock Bowowers,
9:35you still don't like the running backs
9:36on the board, then you can lock in a
9:38Josh Allen, and then all of a sudden
9:39you're elite at quarterback, tight end,
9:40wide receiver, and you can kind of make
9:42up ground at running back later. Or you
9:45lock in a running back, you take a wide
9:46receiver, you come back around to round
9:47three, maybe you take a Trey McBride
9:49because you have a little bit more
9:50balance. But I would really go against
9:53double running back up top, elite tight
9:55end, and elite quarterback. Now, this is
9:57league winner and bust rate data for all
10:00the positions, but you can compare with
10:01tight ends and quarterbacks. When it
10:02comes to tight end, round three and
10:04four, the league winner rate there is
10:06amazing with a very low bust rate. This
10:09year, I'm targeting Coloulston Lovel and
10:11Tyler Warren there. But I also think
10:13that Trey McBride in round three is a
10:15fine bet to make. And then same thing
10:16with Brock Bowers. And then you can also
10:18play late round tight end. You can play
10:20the waiver wire. You can get Dallas,
10:22Jawan Johnson, Dolon Concade, Isaiah
10:24Likely are all guys that I like. Then we
10:26have quarterback Josh Allen. Five years
10:29running has been a strong pick in
10:30fantasy football. You can never go wrong
10:31with Josh Allen in round three or later.
10:34But I will say the round three and four
10:36league winner rate at quarterback is
10:37high. But the bust rate is higher than
10:39even a round one to two running back. So
10:42I'm fading quarterbacks. Honestly, if
10:44not Josh Allen, I'm waiting until round
10:46seven plus and going Justin Herbert,
10:48Brock Pury. If I don't get one of those
10:50two, then I'm just punting and going
10:52Kyler Murray or Malik Willis in the late
10:54late rounds of your draft. And what I'll
10:56say is do not draft two quarterbacks or
11:00two tight ends unless if you fully punt
11:02the position. Meaning if I take Justin
11:04Herbert, that's it. If I take Josh
11:06Allen, that's it. It's not until we get
11:08to like the Kyler Murray, Malik Willis
11:10side of things that I'll take two.
11:12Similar deal with tight end. Pretty much
11:14if I take a quarterback or tight end
11:15inside of the first 10 rounds, I'm not
11:18taking a second one. Rarely ever. You
11:20can play the waiver wire. Your
11:22leaguemates are going to drop their
11:23second quarterback or their second tight
11:25end. It is not a priority. And then I'll
11:28also say know your league, right? Of
11:30course, know how much of the starting
11:32lineup your quarterbacks and tight ends
11:34are taking up. If it's a shallow two
11:36wide receiver, one flex league, they are
11:38going to take up more of the starting
11:39lineup, making them more valuable. If
11:40it's a crazy three wide receiver, three
11:42flex league, the quarterbacks and tight
11:43ends are very small percentage of that
11:45starting lineup. If it's a six-point
11:47passing touchdown, you push up the
11:48pocket passer, superflex, push up the
11:50quarterbacks, tight end premium, push up
11:51the tight ends. All of that you should
11:53know. You should know your leaguemates
11:54tendencies. Is this a running back
11:56hungry league? Are they casual? Do they
11:58draft quarterbacks early? Know all that
12:00ahead of time. And then also know what
12:02site you're drafting on. This is again
12:04from the basement draft guide where you
12:06can check out my ranking. This is
12:07Garrett Wilson where I am six spots
12:09ahead of consensus, 12 spots ahead of
12:11sleeper, but ESPN actually has him three
12:13spots higher than I do. So, understand
12:16and look around the ADP edge tool to see
12:18who are the values and the fades on
12:20whatever draft platform you are on. Now,
12:23let's talk kicker and defense. This is
12:25brief for me. I'm not crazy about kicker
12:27and defense. I would take them with your
12:29last two picks. I give you permission to
12:31take Brandon Aubrey anywhere in round 13
12:34or later. if not, these are my favorite
12:36week one streamers for defense and for
12:38kicker. And then we'll also talk about
12:40the best draft spots to pick from. We
12:43did this video a while back going
12:45through how I would rank each draft
12:47position. You can screenshot this and
12:48use it as you draw straws or do whatever
12:52to find your draft pick, but this is
12:53roughly how I feel. So, let's recap for
12:56a second here. Up top, draft the best
12:58player available through three rounds.
13:00Don't force a certain strategy. Draft
13:02your guys through three rounds and then
13:04adjust your strategy based off of that.
13:06Did you draft two to three running
13:07backs? Then stop drafting them and go
13:09fill out your wide receiver, flex,
13:11quarterback, and tight end position. Did
13:13you only take zero to one running backs
13:15through three rounds? Then you can take
13:16stabs at running back in the dead zone
13:18or even take a few stabs in that round 7
13:21to9 sweet spot at running back. Running
13:23back in general, draft one to two
13:26through three rounds, maybe even three,
13:27hunting those 20 plus point per game
13:29scores. avoid the dead zone and then
13:31based on how many running backs you take
13:32early will dictate how many running
13:34backs you can take later. At wide
13:36receiver, we want wide receivers who the
13:37flex plus one or two before the wide
13:39receiver cliff. And don't be afraid to
13:41draft a wide receiver early if you don't
13:43like the running backs available. Then
13:45with quarterback and tight end,
13:46depending on how many running backs you
13:47drafted early dictates how aggressive
13:49you can be at the position. And then of
13:52course understand that the shallower
13:53your lineup is, the more impact your
13:56quarterback and tight end have. At
13:58quarterback, we want Josh Allen or a
13:59round seven plus quarterback. At tight
14:01end, really, anything can work. Just
14:04again, understand that you only have the
14:06luxury to take an elite quarterback or
14:07an elite tight end if you are lighter at
14:09running back early because we want to
14:12make sure that our flex is strong.
14:14Now, here is an example
14:15team I drafted out of the 11 spot in a
14:17three wide receiver, one flex full PPR
14:19league where you can see we take one
14:21running back early. We go Jefferson,
14:23Nico Collins, Jameson Williams. We take
14:25an elite tight end because we did have
14:26the luxury given we went a little bit
14:28lighter at running back. We took a stab
14:30in the dead zone with Jadarian Price. We
14:32fill receivers through the flex plus one
14:34with DK Mechaf and Jaden Reed. And then
14:36we start hammering out Tony Pard, Chris
14:38Rodriguez. We take our quarterback and
14:40this gives us a very well-rounded team
14:42that I like. This is what the starting
14:44lineup looks like. I am happy with it.
14:45That was a real $350 draft that we draft
14:48on stream on this channel, which is
14:51another pointer I could give. We stream
14:53every night. Make sure you watch them.
14:55We draft real money fantasy football
14:56teams on here. I answer questions and
14:58that's a great way to prep for your
15:00draft. Also, you can practice over on
15:02Underdog. Use promo code Ron and when
15:04you play $5, you get $50 on the site to
15:06mess around with real money drafts on
15:09their site. It's best so you draft it.
15:11Don't have to worry about it. But
15:12there's enough money on the line that
15:14the room is sharp and everybody is
15:16drafting as if they care. The mock
15:18drafts on a lot of these sites are
15:19outdated with bots or they're just plain
15:22bad. everyone's autodrafting. Underdog
15:24is a great way to practice. And then I'd
15:26also say use my rankings. Use the ADP
15:28edge tool. Use the flex check tool.
15:30Everything you need is on the
15:32basementdraftguide.com.
15:34Of course, in season, we need to set our
15:37lineup. We need to do waiverwire. All of
15:38that is on the Patreon.
15:39patreon.com/roonstewart
15:41where you can get my weekly rankings,
15:43rest of season rankings, my waiverwire
15:44article, start sit streams every Sunday.
15:47And if you're on the Patreon, you get
15:48the draft guide half off. And then of
15:49course, subscribe to the channel. We are
15:51going to be doing videos from now
15:54through week one. And then once week one
15:55happens, we'll be talking about the
15:56rookie receiver report to stay up to
15:58date with those upside rookies late.
16:00We'll do waiverwire videos. We'll do
16:01trade target videos. All of that and
16:03more. Subscribe, leave a like, good luck
16:05in your draft, and I will see you in the
16:08next one.
16:21Leave me as [music and singing] stones
16:23like this froze.
16:27I like I'm frozen.
