VideoFrom Ron Stewart
Draft These 6 WRs Before They Breakout in 2026.
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
25 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 7, 2026
Published
Fri, August 7, 2026
18
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldBrian Thomas Jr.Chris OlaveChristian WatsonColston LovelandDrake LondonEmeka EgbukaGeorge PickensIsaiah LikelyJaxon Smith-NjigbaJosh DownsLadd McConkeyLamar JacksonLuther Burden
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
PositiveProjection20:56
Ron Stewart expects a bounce-back for Baker Mayfield, noting he was a shell of himself after week six last year due to injury. With a healthier offensive line and Zack Robinson's scheme—which utilizes motion to increase efficiency—Mayfield is expected to return to his early-season form. Mayfield was second in the NFL in increasing adjusted net yards per attempt with during-snap motion.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveProjection25:43
Ron Stewart views Brian Thomas Jr. as an awesome talent with a massive ceiling this year. While he does not qualify as a traditional breakout candidate after finishing as a WR11 in points per game during his rookie season, Stewart remains highly bullish on his potential.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveValue0:12
Ron Stewart highlights Chris Olave as a player who crushed his middle-round draft price, serving as a successful breakout archetype.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout6:19
Ron Stewart ranks Christian Watson as his WR27 (509 overall), 10 spots higher than consensus. Despite injury history, Watson's career efficiency (2+ YPRR) is elite. With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks moving, Watson is projected for a full route share. In a 13-game sample with 75%+ route share, he averaged 17.5 PPG. He is expected to shift from a field-stretcher to a versatile flanker/Z role, with high efficiency on horizontally breaking routes (3.89 YPRR).
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveSleeper4:36
Ron Stewart identifies Colston Loveland as a target in his draft guide, projecting a potential breakout in his second season within a high-volume passing offense.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveUsage20:28
Ron Stewart references Matt Harmon's reception perception data to explain how Zack Robinson's scheme transformed Drake London from a pure X receiver (82% of snaps on the line) into a Z receiver with heavy slot work. This shift serves as a blueprint for future receiver development in Robinson's offense.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveBreakout20:50
Ron Stewart projects a breakout for Emeka Egbuka, citing the arrival of Zack Robinson as play-caller and a potential shift to a Z-receiver role. Egbuka profiles as a target-hog similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown with verticality akin to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he is expected to benefit from a healthier offensive line and Baker Mayfield's return to form.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveValue0:12
Ron Stewart highlights George Pickens as a player who crushed his middle-round draft price, serving as a successful breakout archetype.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
NegativeUsage21:22
Ron Stewart notes that Isaiah Likely's departure from the team removes significant red-zone target competition, which creates a path for Zay Flowers to see increased opportunities in that area of the field.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveBreakout0:06
Ron Stewart cites Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a successful historical example of a breakout wide receiver who provided significant value after being drafted in the third round, ultimately scoring over 20 points per game.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveSleeper30:34
Josh Downs is a high-value breakout candidate in his fourth year, currently available in the 10th round. Despite playing exclusively in 11 personnel, he ranks top-10 in targets per route and first downs per route among high-volume receivers. With Alec Pierce potentially limited by an ankle injury and Daniel Jones expected to favor quick, underneath passes, Downs is a strong candidate to challenge for 100+ receptions and WR11-12 production.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveBreakout24:03
Ron Stewart identifies Ladd McConkey as a prime year-three breakout candidate with top-12 upside, ranking him at WR2 (4.02 ADP) despite a 4.09 consensus ADP. Stewart cites McConkey's elite per-route metrics, including 4.17 yards per route run on go routes in 2024, and the return of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater as catalysts for an offensive rebound. Additionally, Mike McDaniel's scheme and increased heavy-set usage—modeled after Jaylen Waddle's usage—are expected to boost McConkey's efficiency by moving him outside of 11 personnel.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection21:09
Ron Stewart highlights Lamar Jackson's potential for a high-scoring season, noting his history of 36 and 41 passing touchdown campaigns. Stewart emphasizes that Jackson's fantasy production is tied to play-action frequency, noting that when Jackson is in a top-10 play-action rate offense, he consistently averages 20+ fantasy points per game.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout0:41
Ron Stewart ranks Luther Burden as his WR22 (404 overall), seven spots higher than consensus. Stewart views him as a high-upside breakout candidate transitioning to a full-time role following DJ Moore's departure. Burden's efficiency is supported by a 2.3+ yards per route run rate, comparable to Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. Stewart is actively buying stock, citing praise from GM Ryan P and a Week 17 breakout performance (27.8 PPR points, 8 catches, 138 yards, 1 TD vs. 49ers).
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeDepth Chart22:28
Ron Stewart acknowledges Mark Andrews as a teammate of Zay Flowers but argues that Andrews does not pose enough of a threat to Flowers' target share to prevent a breakout season.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
NegativeDepth Chart22:20
Ron Stewart identifies Rashod Bateman as a teammate of Zay Flowers but explicitly states that Bateman does not represent meaningful target competition that would prevent Flowers from achieving a breakout season.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeProjection4:32
Ron Stewart respects Rome Odunze's upside as a year-three breakout candidate but is not actively targeting him, noting he is currently aligned with the market consensus as a 56th-turn wide receiver pick.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout20:46
Ron Stewart projects Zay Flowers for a major breakout with top-six overall upside under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. Flowers demonstrated elite efficiency last year, ranking among the top 10 players with 200+ routes run, a 25% target-per-route-run rate, 10+ yards per target, and 10%+ first-downs-per-route-run. He leads all qualifying wide receivers in yards per route run on play-action passes over the last two seasons. The departure of Isaiah Likely removes significant red-zone target competition, further clearing a path for Flowers. Stewart ranks him as his WR7 (3.07 ADP), nine spots ahead of consensus.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and breakout wide receivers win fantasy football leagues.
0:06That was obvious last year with JSN. You drafted him in the third round and he ended up scoring 20 plus points per game
0:12as the wide receiver to overall in fantasy football. But even further than that, Crystal Lav and George Pickins absolutely crushed their middle round
0:20prices. In fact, five of the top 12 point per game scorers at wide receiver did so for the first time in their
0:26careers, breaking out as wide receiver 1. So today we are going to give you these six breakout wide receiver candidates for 2026 I think can become
0:34wide receiver ones for the first time in their careers and end up on this list when I make this video next season. As
0:41always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and the first breakout candidate we are going to talk about today is a favorite, Luther
0:49Burton. Now, of course, I have him ranked as my 404 as the wide receiver 22 off the board. He is going on fantasy
0:56pros consensus, however you want to treat that. It's essentially just the average of like sleeper, ESPN, whatever.
1:02I am seven spots higher than the market on Luther Burden. Of course, this is a screenshot from the basementdraftguide.com.
1:10Check it out. Now, it has my rankings, target rounds, player notes, targets, fades. You can see Luther Burton obviously a target here, the flex check
1:17tool, league sync, everything you could possibly want. the basementdraftguide.com and of course if you are a Patreon member you get it for
1:2550% off and if you're an annual member you get it for free. Now let's dive into Luther Burton because the thesis of this
1:32video is we are taking home run swings, right? These are guys you are drafting as the wide receiver 22. A guy who is
1:39going to be in your wide receiver 2 spot or in your flex spot and you want the upside of can this guy get to 16 17
1:48points per game to be a wide receiver one. And with Luther Burton it's a home run swing. It's a leap of faith. And of
1:54course the leap of faith is that he had a small sample of routes. We are talking 242 routes in the regular season. 307 if
2:01you include the playoffs. But the yards per out run number on those routes is just too good to ignore. This is from JJ
2:07Zachares. In terms of rookie wide receivers since 2011 with 50 or more targets and a yards per run rate over 2.3, Luther Burton ends up on a list
2:15with Odell Beckham, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nakua, Jamar Chase, Brian Thomas, Chris Lave, Rashi Rice, Lad Mani, and then if you include the
2:22playoffs, it's still 2.34 a really strong number in this range with a lot of elite producers. Now, if you want to
2:29even go further than that, we have a Rich Reebar tweet here showing that if you just look at players with 200 plus
2:34routes with over a two yards per out run, but they ran a team they ran a route on fewer than 50% of the team drop
2:41backs, you get a different list. It's Christian Watson, Tank Dell, Tyreek Hill, Robert Foster, Chris Godwin. It's not amazing. It's not bulletproof, but
2:50the upside is there. We're talking Tyreek Hill. We're talking Chris Godwin.
2:53Christian Watson has had his bright spots. And of course, Tank Dell got hurt.
2:58It's a boom bust profile. It is a home run swing, but one that I'm willing to take. You have to chase this yards per
3:04out run number. And then he's also in a Ben Johnson offense. So, we're going to get fireworks here. In three seasons
3:09with Detroit, in one season with Chicago, Ben Johnson has been top 10 in passing yards each of those years and top 10 in passing touchdowns in each of
3:18those years. We now get year two in this system with Caleb Williams.
3:22And now the small sample trap of the low routes are going to come up because DJ Moore leaves, of course, and goes to the
3:29Buffalo Bills. And now all of a sudden, Luther Burton will be a full-time wide receiver for the first time in the NFL.
3:35And that is exciting. Now, of course, he's not going to maintain a 2.75 yards per run. But if he can maintain a two
3:41plus yards per run and in a full-time role with Ben Johnson as this slot flanker Yak archetype, that's really exciting. This is a team last year that
3:51didn't have a single receiver inside of the top 36 in the NFL on yards after the catch. Of course, Luther Burton was
3:58fourth in Yak per reception. He was top 10 in missiles force per reception. He is their only after the catch explosive
4:05playmaker and that's exciting. Also, he's getting non-stop buzz. I hate to really buy too much into camp reports, but we're getting it all. Ben Johnson,
4:13I'm buying Luther Burden stock right now. You got the GM Ryan P saying if there's a guy I'm really excited about,
4:18it's Luther Burden. can feel the fire inside of him. They are going nuts. We already saw him flash in a bigger role
4:24in week 17 last year where he went for 27.8 PPR points on eight catches for 138 yards and a touchdown verse the 49ers.
4:32Now, we haven't acknowledged the rest of the room, right? Of course, you have Roman Dunes heading into year three. You have Koulson Loveland heading into year
4:37two. And honestly, I like all of these guys. I'm drafting all of them. I have Luther Burton as a target in the draft
4:42guide. I have Colston Lovelin as a target in the draft guide. Odunce is not a target for me, but he's somebody that
4:47I'm right on par with the market. I have him as a 56 turn wide receiver pick. I definitely understand and respect his
4:54upside as a year three breakout candidate. But I'd also say if I came to you guys here and gave you both Luther
5:00Burden and Roma Dunce as breakout candidates, I'd be hedging my bets and kind of being cowardly. But I also don't think that you have to push one up and
5:08then push down the other. We have a situation here with Ben Johnson where this the sky is the limit. There is no
5:15bounce here because there's going to be so many passing yards and passing touchdowns that it isn't a situation of too many mouths to feed. It is how big
5:22can you dream is kind of what we're dealing with here. This is from me on Twitter where essentially this guy was
5:27talking about the there's only so many guys that can go around. There's only so many options. We saw this in Detroit
5:32with Jared Goff where he threw for 4600 yards and 37 touchdowns. Aman was the wide receiver four in points per game.
5:39Jameson Williams is the wide receiver 23. Leaporta was the tight end eight.
5:43Now, don't get me wrong, if Colin Level finished at the Titan eight, that would be a huge bummer. But there's also no
5:47Jir Gibbs and David Montgomery taking a ton of touches out of the backfield. We have DeAndre Swift, we have Kyle Manungai. This is a team that's going to
5:53lean on the passing game. And I'm also not saying that Luther Burton's going to be the wide receiver four, right? This
5:58might be a situation where Burden's the wide receiver 10, Odun is the wide receiver 23, and then Coulson Leland's like the tight end three. I don't think
6:05that that's that crazy. Of course, in that situation, I think Caleb Williams would be a massive league winner, but that's all on the table in this offense.
6:13The sky is the limit, and we're dreaming big about breakout wide receivers. I want to be betting on Luther Burton.
6:19Now, moving on from that, we have my next breakout candidate, Christian Watson. Now, this one's a little bit tricky. He's going into year five.
6:26That's not quite our normal traditional breakout, but he's my 509 as my wide receiver 27. I am 10 spots higher than
6:34consensus and he has been a target for me. When we look at the most impactful seasons at wide receiver since 2021, I
6:44just did a video on draft strategy.
6:46Honestly, one of my favorite videos we've ever done where I talked about wins above replacement and then wins above replacement over expectation based
6:52on where you were drafted. And when we look at since 2021, every wide receiver season to exceed their expectation by one or more wins
7:00above replacement, essentially league winner seasons, you can see here, yes, you have Keenan Allen and Mike Evans, but all of these receivers fall inside
7:07of their top six seasons in the NFL in terms of career years. And in fact, the best season, Cooper Cup, was in year
7:14five. I'm not saying that Christian Watson's going to be Cooper Cup, but I'm saying this could be where the peak is
7:19and somebody for Christian Watson who's been banged up or limited in routes.
7:23It's a little bit more of a choppy, murky situation as he climbs to a true breakout. And this could finally be that
7:31year. We look at where wide receivers tend to peak. This is a old school Ryan Heath article. I say old school now
7:36because I can't access this on Fantasy Points anymore, but he's of course a great follow. You can see here, year five is the peak. that is the one the
7:44season uh where it all goes down for these wide receivers. And with Christian Watson again, the issue has been that he
7:50hasn't been on the field enough. But when he's on the field, he is outrageous. These are the other receivers heading into year five this
7:56season. His points per game is low because he doesn't have the route share of those other guys. But on a per route
8:01basis, he's amazing. Two plus yards per out run for his entire career is right there with Chris Lobby and Drake London.
8:088.9% first downs per out run is right there with George Pickkins and Trey McBride. 21% targets per run. Not quite as high, but when you're running
8:15downfield as much as he is, you get a ton of efficiency.
8:19So, the elephant in the room is health and playing full-time receiver. Through four years, his route share has been
8:2653%, 78%, 61%, and 72%.
8:32His careerhigh 78% route share would have been 49th among wide receivers last year, but he's a full season off of the
8:39torn ACL. Last year he proved that he could stay healthy and be dominant. And now we have Romeo Dobs getting moved,
8:46Dontavon Wixs getting moved, and it opens things up for Christian Watson to now have a full share of routes. This is
8:51somebody that over a 13game sample in his career at a 75% plus route share is at 17.5 points per game, which would
9:00have been the wide receiver six last year. We've already seen it. Uh that's a stat, by the way, from Ryan Heath as
9:05well. And I think that we could also see a nice role change. We look at horizontally breaking routes. These are some of the more juiced efficiency
9:13routes in the NFL. We're talking crossers, digs, outs, slants, post, corners, things we're getting over the middle of the defense or out towards the
9:22sideline. And Christian Watson was dominant on these. You can see yards per run, 3.89. We're looking at all the Packers wide receivers from last year.
9:303.89 yards per out run on these routes is absurd. And now Romeo Dobs is gone and Dantavian Wix is gone. And a lot of
9:37those routes are going to go to Christian Watson. The early reporting out of camp so far is that Matthew Golden's going to play X in a field
9:43stretching role. And Christian Watson's going to get moved around the formation as the flanker Z, which is very encouraging. These horizontally breaking
9:51routes are a cheat code for fantasy football. If we look at the guys who led the league in horizontally breaking routes by yards, it was JSN, Puka,
9:59Nakua, Aman Ross, St. Brown, and those guys all had 11.7, 9.7, and 10.2 A dots on those routes. We could see Christian
10:06Watson go from a guy who is only a field stretcher at like a 17 yard AOT down to maybe 13 yards in terms of his AOT's
10:13average depth of target downfield as a more versatile wide receiver and then all of a sudden you're dealing with 16 17 points per game. As a wide receiver
10:22one the floor's offenses always score points and I'm higher on Jordan Love than others. He's been very efficient on a per attempt basis and with Josh Jacobs
10:29uncertainty and with Michael Parson's hurt on the defense we could finally see this passing offense unleashed. Now, our third breakout candidate for 2026,
10:40Amecha Ibuka. And it's so simple with this one. He is my 308. I'm nine spots higher than Consensus.
10:47You don't really have to have a crazy imagination on this one because we've already seen it through five career games. He was at 102.4 PPR points behind
10:55only Puka Nua and Randy Moss through a player's first five career games. That is a 20 plus point per game outcome
11:02through five games. And also when you compare him to Randy Moss and Jamar Chase over a sample like that, he's toe-to-toe right there. 25 catches, 445
11:12yards, and five touchdowns. He was doing big boy stuff. Now, I'll also say, of course, Mike Evans was there. So, we got
11:17to play uh at the Zpot in the slot. And then even when Evans got hurt in week four, we had Amecha Ibuka go for five
11:27catches, 102 yards, and a touchdown versus Philly, a good defense. and then seven catches, 163 yards, and a touchdown versus Seattle. The top three
11:34PPR point scorers against Seattle last year, the Super Bowl winning defense was Puka, Puka Nakua, Amecha, Ibuka. They were the only receivers to go for over
11:46160 yards. Just a crazy crazy performance against those teams. And again, he kind of did it out of position. And this is the exciting part
11:53about this year is that Zack Robinson comes over to Tampa and now all of a sudden we are not going to have a Mecha
11:58Ibuka lining up at the X, right? Once Evans went down, Ibuka then has to play out of position and then now he's
12:04getting banged up with the hamstring injury and then things kind of fall apart from there. Well, this year we have reports here Zack Robinson says
12:10secondyear wide receiver Mechabuka is going to settle into the Z-roll who's going to be off the line, moved around and then we have a true X in Ted Hurst.
12:18And then there's also some talk that Jaylen McMillan will play at the X as well. But the real takeaway that Matt
12:22Harmon talks about here, this is a big deal for Ibuka to play in his natural position. And when we talk about Zack
12:28Robinson coming over from the Falcons, he unlocked Drake London in this exact way. Uh this is from Matt Harmon's reception perception blurb talking about
12:36London. London went from a mostly pure X receiver in his first two seasons with Arthur Smith, taking an average of 82%
12:43of his sampled snaps and 84% on the line. So that's ex receiver dealing with press coverage to then being a Z
12:50receiver with heavy slot work. And if we can get that transformation for Ibuka, the sky's is the limit. I love this team
12:56getting healthy as well. Of course, Baker Mayfield is getting healthy. This offensive line last year with a shell of itself. It is the third ranked offensive
13:03line over on established the run and they suffered significant injuries to both guards and right tackle last year.
13:08They missed 27 starts between them. So now they're getting healthy. That also showed up in the offensive efficiency last year. They were seventh in
13:15offensive efficiency through six weeks and then after week seven they were at 25th. So I think this whole offense bounces back. I think this passing game
13:23lives through Ibuka. We also get his deep ball kind of unlocked here where that was his superpower last year. IA where he was seventh with 382 yards on
13:32passes of 20 or more air yards. So like these deep bombs he was going crazy on.
13:37But he had 291 of those 382 yards through five weeks. Now he does profile like a Z flanker slot target hog similar
13:46to Aman Ross Brown but I also think he has some verticality to his game similar to a JSN. Baker Mayfield through five
13:51weeks was fourth in deep throw percentage at 15.1%. From week six on he was at 8.9%. He was just clearly a shell
13:58of himself. He wasn't pushing the field as aggressively. I think we get back to that this season. And Zack Robinson again is honestly a huge upgrade not
14:06only for Ibuka but for the whole offense where if we look at during snap motion, Zack Robinson was second in the NFL last
14:14year from Ryan Heath and Baker Mayfield was second in the NFL in terms of increasing his adjusted net yards per attempt with during snap motion. So this
14:21is perfect marriage. We're going to see more motion. I think IUKA is going to be used heavily in motion and then it's
14:26going to juice the efficiency of Ibuka and Baker Mayfield. So it's all there.
14:30Give me the year 2 breakout. Zack Robinson has been on staff for Drake London's breakout. He's been on staff for the Cooper Cup 2021 season. And I
14:37think Mechabuka could be the next monster season uh under his play calling. Then we have Vlad Makoni going
14:46into year three. This is your more obvious year three breakout. Everybody loves Lad Makoni. He's my 402. He's going off the board of the 409. I am
14:56seven spots higher than consensus. And I think that similar to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you can kind of draw a lot
15:03of injury related conclusions for the Chargers. This is from a Lad Mani interview where he says he got healthy this summer. He's in a good spot and
15:11similar deal. So was the offensive line.
15:13Last year the Chargers offense from Bill Barnwell here was third in the league in EPA per play with Joe All on the field
15:19and then they dropped to 26 without Joe all. They're also getting Rashawn Slater back and this whole offense should bounce back again. It's an obvious year
15:29three breakout candidate. His per out mech for his entire career have been absolutely awesome. When you look at the 2024 class, it's Neighbors, it's Brock
15:37Bowers, and then it's Lad Mani. His per out numbers are great in terms of targets per out run, yards per out run,
15:42first downs per out run. I will add, I do think that Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas are awesome this year. Of course,
15:48Malik Neighbors isn't really a breakout candidate. Brian Thomas was like the wide receiver 11 in points for him as a rookie. So, he doesn't really count
15:54towards a breakout. But the more I look at it, the more I'm like, man, I get the Parker Washington thing, but I do think
16:01that Brian Thomas has a massive, massive ceiling this year. But going back to Lad Mcconi, he was the wide receiver 16 in
16:07points for game as a rookie. His parametrics are super solid. And I want to buy back in on the talent in this new
16:13scheme with Mike McDaniel. This is from Ryan Heath here who had a great article over on fantasy points talking about the
16:19new play calls. We actually had him on this channel talking through all of that. And I think that when we also talk
16:24about these breakouts, I think having a change of situation, whether it's a player going to a new team or a new play caller coming in,
16:33when you look at JSN last year, that was Clint Kubak coming in for Ryan Grub. You look at Chris Lave, that was Kell Moore
16:38coming in to the Saints offense. George Pickkins last year, he goes from the Steelers to the Cowboys. So, there's some change of the situation that kind
16:46of unears these breakouts is what I would say. And I think that this Mike McNeel coming in helps that. I mean, we
16:52all know it. The play action drop back rate, the during snap motion rate, all the cheat code stuff, that's what he's
16:57doing. And then you look at Lad Makoni when he works downfield in a similar way to Tyreek Hill. I know it's crazy to say
17:01that Lad Mani has some Tyreek Hill to his game, but you can kind of squint and see it. We look at yards per run on go route since
17:102022. It is Puka, Jaden Reed, AJ Brown, Lad McConi, and then Tyreek Hill.
17:14McConi, despite the down year last season, if you look at just those games with Joe Alt, 2.7 yards per run on go
17:19routes is great. Without 1.95, not very good. And then in 2024, 4.17 yards per run on go routes is nuts. If we can get
17:28Mike McDaniel, Justin Herbert, and Lad McConi all on the same page with these go routes downfield in addition to all the fun slot work and motion. There's
17:38top 12 in Ladaki's range of outcomes here this season. And then we can also talk about the addition of Charlie Kolar
17:45and David and Jooku and what that means for this offense. We're going to see more heavy sets for this offense and
17:50that juices wide receiver efficiency.
17:52Lad Manki last year only ran 9.9% of his routes from sets with fewer than three wide receivers. Essentially, if you put
17:58a tight end on the field instead of a receiver, that receiver is going to draw more targets and more yards because
18:04receivers are just as a whole better than the blocking tight ends like Charlie Kol are. Now you get Mike McDaniel who had Jaylen Wadd last year
18:12on the field 46% of the time with fewer than three wide receivers. So that should almost quadruple Lad Manki's rate in terms of those heavy set personnels
18:22and then all of a sudden his efficiency can jump even more than that. So Lakoni to me is super obvious. I'm not telling
18:27you anything you don't know. His price is expensive for a reason, but I'm willing to pay up. Now probably our cheapest receiver on this list is Josh
18:35DS. But I think that he can PPR his way to like the wide receiver 11, the wide receiver 12 as like a 15 point per game
18:41guy. He's a year four breakout candidate. Of course, last year George Pickkins was year four, and Chris Olive was year four. Our kind of lever here,
18:49right, McDaniel coming over to the Chargers. Is Michael Pitman now getting traded away and kind of a vote of confidence from Shane Stiken of, hey,
18:59we're going to feature Josh DS this year. This is somebody I think can really challenge for 100 plus receptions. You have this from coach
19:05speak index where Shane Syen had a sit down interview saying when it comes to Josh D's involvement he wants to get him
19:10involved in any way we can whether it's in 12 personnel obviously he plays a lot in the slot in 11 personnel but just
19:15trying to find different ways to get him the ball. This is a team that didn't have a ton of pressure to move off of
19:19Michael Pitman but I think that it just sort of gives a vote of confidence in what they feel towards Josh DS and the
19:25big thing for him is almost the inverse of what we just talked about Vlad Makoni where these heavier tight end sets breed
19:30efficiency. Josh DS hasn't had that benefit. He has been in three wide receiver sets exclusively. And if we look at the data here, among 74 wide
19:38receivers who have run 450 or more routes out of 11 personnel in the past two years and ranks both top 10 in
19:43targets per run and first downs per run.
19:45So not only are you commanding volume, but you are being an engine of your offense, it is Josh DS and then it's
19:51Puka, Jamar Chase, Aman Ros, AJ Brown, Drake London, Mike Evans. It is elite elite company. And again, it's like playing on expert difficulty when you
19:59are playing in only 11 personnel fending for targets with Michael Pitman, Alec Pierce, and then even Adam Mitchell. Say whatever you want about Adam N. Mitchell
20:07on a per out basis, he's drawing targets. So Josh DS having strong perout metrics in essentially exclusively three or more wide receiver sets is super
20:16encouraging. And then of course, Alec Pierce is dealing with an ankle injury.
20:19He might be kind of a decoy only field stretcher this year. And then Daniel Jones off the Achilles tear might be
20:24more inclined to get the ball out quick and find Josh DS underneath. So he's going off the board in the 10th round by
20:32consensus. He is my 710. He is somebody that I am drafting a lot of. Then our last breakout wide receiver candidate is
20:39a little bit of a cheat, but here's what I'll say. Z Flowers was in the intro as the wide receiver, 12 in points per game
20:46last year, finishing as a wide receiver one for the first time in his career, but it doesn't really count. He wasn't
20:51like a massive league winner in any way.
20:53And then also his 14.3 points per game would have been the wide receiver 20 in 2024. So it was really more a product of
21:00a down season from that wide receiver like 10 through 20 area than it was Z Flowers having this monster year. But it
21:09was still impressive. Finishing as a wide receiver one when your quarterback and Lamar Jackson goes down and gets hurt and is kind of a shell of himself
21:14all year is a real deal. And then his lever to spark a change is we get a new OC. Todd Monan goes to Cleveland. We get
21:22Declan Doyle in and all of a sudden things can get exciting. On top of that, Isaiah likely leaves who's one of the
21:27bigger red zone targets on this team.
21:29And now Zflower is somebody who only scored five touchdowns last year and his biggest issue is red zone targets now could potentially be featured in the red
21:37zone where we could see this passing offense flow through. Zay Flowers. This is somebody in Lamar Jackson who has had seasons of 36 and 41 passing touchdowns.
21:44And Declan Doyle is going to bring a lot of play action to this offense. Again, all the play caller stuff is awesome and
21:50unreal from Ryan Heath. Uh he showed the play action drop back rate for Lamar Jackson and then his fantasy points per
21:56game in those seasons. Essentially, when he's top 10 in play action rate, he ends up with 20 plus points per game. And
22:02Declan Doyle underneath with Jacob Gibbs tweet here showing that when he was with the Broncos, they were 10th in play action rate. The Bears were second in
22:09play action rate last year. And if they're top 10 in play action rate again this season, that's a huge boost for Zay
22:14Flowers, who leads all qualifying wide receivers in yards per run on play action passes over the last two seasons.
22:20So now we get a talented player in a good offense benefiting from play action. Yes, there's Rashad Baitman, Jacobe Lane, Elijah Sarat, Mark Andrews,
22:29but none of these guys are meaningful target competition that could hold him back from a true monster breakout. With Zay Flowers, I'm not talking like can he
22:36finish as the wide receiver for 12 this year. It's more I really do think that he has top six upside in this offense
22:42with the new change. Again, he's a talented player. Last year, if we look at the 10 wide receivers or tight ends
22:46to run 200 or more routes, have a 20% plus targets per out run, a 10 plus yards per target, and a 10% plus first
22:52downs per out run. He's in really good company. Last year, 25% targets per run, 10 plus yards per target, 10 plus first
22:59downs per out run. That's essentially his target earning, his target efficiency, and then him being an offensive engine and moving the chain.
23:05He's a good player who has increased his yards per run every year of his career.
23:09He went from 1.72 to 2.25 to 2.53 and now it feels like everything is coming together for this year 4 crescendo with
23:17a new offensive coordinator and I am very excited about it. I have him as my 307. I'm drafting him nine spots ahead
23:24of consensus as the wide receiver 14 off the board. But that is going to do it for us today. That is my six breakout
23:31wide receiver candidates for 2026.
23:34Again, as always, if you want access to the full rankings, you can get that over on the basementdraftguide.com. I'll have links in the description and the comment
23:41section down below. There you can get my tier top 200 target rounds, player notes, targets, fades, all my draft tools. You can sync it to your league.
23:50And then on top of that, that's going to be for your draft. You sign up for the Patreon. The Patreon is for in season.
23:56So, your weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, your waiverwire articles, your dynasty rankings, all of that good stuff. the premium Discord where we have
24:03subscriber leagues and all of that going on. You can find that on the Patreon. If you sign up for the Patreon, you get the
24:08draft guide for half off. If you sign up for the Patreon for the full year, you get the draft guide for free. Check that
24:13all out down below. But if not, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and I will see you guys in the next one.
24:33>> [singing and music] >> stones like this.
24:36Ice cold ice around my body.
More episodes from Ron Stewart
A Fantasy Football Draft (Gone Shameful😔)
Aug 5, 2026
My FIRST Real Fantasy Football Draft of 2026
Aug 4, 2026
A 2026 Fantasy Football Draft
Aug 3, 2026
Let's Draft a Fantasy Football Team
Jul 22, 2026