VideoFrom Ron Stewart
Draft These 6 WRs Before They Breakout in 2026.
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
25 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 7, 2026
Published
Fri, August 7, 2026
18
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldBrian Thomas Jr.Chris OlaveChristian WatsonColston LovelandDrake LondonEmeka EgbukaGeorge PickensIsaiah LikelyJaxon Smith-NjigbaJosh DownsLadd McConkeyLamar JacksonLuther Burden
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
PositiveProjection20:56
Ron Stewart expects a bounce-back for Baker Mayfield, noting he was a shell of himself after week six last year due to injury. With a healthier offensive line and Zack Robinson's scheme—which utilizes motion to increase efficiency—Mayfield is expected to return to his early-season form. Mayfield was second in the NFL in increasing adjusted net yards per attempt with during-snap motion.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveProjection25:43
Ron Stewart views Brian Thomas Jr. as an awesome talent with a massive ceiling this year. While he does not qualify as a traditional breakout candidate after finishing as a WR11 in points per game during his rookie season, Stewart remains highly bullish on his potential.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveValue0:12
Ron Stewart highlights Chris Olave as a player who crushed his middle-round draft price, serving as a successful breakout archetype.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout6:19
Ron Stewart ranks Christian Watson as his WR27 (509 overall), 10 spots higher than consensus. Despite injury history, Watson's career efficiency (2+ YPRR) is elite. With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks moving, Watson is projected for a full route share. In a 13-game sample with 75%+ route share, he averaged 17.5 PPG. He is expected to shift from a field-stretcher to a versatile flanker/Z role, with high efficiency on horizontally breaking routes (3.89 YPRR).
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveSleeper4:36
Ron Stewart identifies Colston Loveland as a target in his draft guide, projecting a potential breakout in his second season within a high-volume passing offense.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveUsage20:28
Ron Stewart references Matt Harmon's reception perception data to explain how Zack Robinson's scheme transformed Drake London from a pure X receiver (82% of snaps on the line) into a Z receiver with heavy slot work. This shift serves as a blueprint for future receiver development in Robinson's offense.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveBreakout20:50
Ron Stewart projects a breakout for Emeka Egbuka, citing the arrival of Zack Robinson as play-caller and a potential shift to a Z-receiver role. Egbuka profiles as a target-hog similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown with verticality akin to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he is expected to benefit from a healthier offensive line and Baker Mayfield's return to form.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveValue0:12
Ron Stewart highlights George Pickens as a player who crushed his middle-round draft price, serving as a successful breakout archetype.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
NegativeUsage21:22
Ron Stewart notes that Isaiah Likely's departure from the team removes significant red-zone target competition, which creates a path for Zay Flowers to see increased opportunities in that area of the field.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveBreakout0:06
Ron Stewart cites Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a successful historical example of a breakout wide receiver who provided significant value after being drafted in the third round, ultimately scoring over 20 points per game.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveSleeper30:34
Josh Downs is a high-value breakout candidate in his fourth year, currently available in the 10th round. Despite playing exclusively in 11 personnel, he ranks top-10 in targets per route and first downs per route among high-volume receivers. With Alec Pierce potentially limited by an ankle injury and Daniel Jones expected to favor quick, underneath passes, Downs is a strong candidate to challenge for 100+ receptions and WR11-12 production.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveBreakout24:03
Ron Stewart identifies Ladd McConkey as a prime year-three breakout candidate with top-12 upside, ranking him at WR2 (4.02 ADP) despite a 4.09 consensus ADP. Stewart cites McConkey's elite per-route metrics, including 4.17 yards per route run on go routes in 2024, and the return of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater as catalysts for an offensive rebound. Additionally, Mike McDaniel's scheme and increased heavy-set usage—modeled after Jaylen Waddle's usage—are expected to boost McConkey's efficiency by moving him outside of 11 personnel.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection21:09
Ron Stewart highlights Lamar Jackson's potential for a high-scoring season, noting his history of 36 and 41 passing touchdown campaigns. Stewart emphasizes that Jackson's fantasy production is tied to play-action frequency, noting that when Jackson is in a top-10 play-action rate offense, he consistently averages 20+ fantasy points per game.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout0:41
Ron Stewart ranks Luther Burden as his WR22 (404 overall), seven spots higher than consensus. Stewart views him as a high-upside breakout candidate transitioning to a full-time role following DJ Moore's departure. Burden's efficiency is supported by a 2.3+ yards per route run rate, comparable to Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. Stewart is actively buying stock, citing praise from GM Ryan P and a Week 17 breakout performance (27.8 PPR points, 8 catches, 138 yards, 1 TD vs. 49ers).
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeDepth Chart22:28
Ron Stewart acknowledges Mark Andrews as a teammate of Zay Flowers but argues that Andrews does not pose enough of a threat to Flowers' target share to prevent a breakout season.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
NegativeDepth Chart22:20
Ron Stewart identifies Rashod Bateman as a teammate of Zay Flowers but explicitly states that Bateman does not represent meaningful target competition that would prevent Flowers from achieving a breakout season.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeProjection4:32
Ron Stewart respects Rome Odunze's upside as a year-three breakout candidate but is not actively targeting him, noting he is currently aligned with the market consensus as a 56th-turn wide receiver pick.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout20:46
Ron Stewart projects Zay Flowers for a major breakout with top-six overall upside under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. Flowers demonstrated elite efficiency last year, ranking among the top 10 players with 200+ routes run, a 25% target-per-route-run rate, 10+ yards per target, and 10%+ first-downs-per-route-run. He leads all qualifying wide receivers in yards per route run on play-action passes over the last two seasons. The departure of Isaiah Likely removes significant red-zone target competition, further clearing a path for Flowers. Stewart ranks him as his WR7 (3.07 ADP), nine spots ahead of consensus.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm running breakout wide receivers win fantasy football leagues.
0:06That was obvious last year with the JSN.
0:08You drafted him in the third round and he ended up scoring 20 plus points per game as the wide receiver two overall in
0:14fantasy football. But even further than that, Chris Olave and George Pickens absolutely crushed their middle round prices. In fact, five of the top 12
0:22point per game scores at wide receiver did so for the first time in their careers breaking out as wide receiver ones. So today, we are going to give you
0:30these six breakout wide receiver candidates for 2026 I think can become wide receiver ones for the first time in their careers and end up on this list
0:38when I make this video next season. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new. And the first
0:44breakout candidate we are going to talk about today is a favorite, Luther Burden. Now, of course, I have him ranked as my 404 as
0:52the wide receiver 22 off the board. He is going on Fantasy Pros consensus, whatever you want to treat that. It's essentially just the average of like
1:00Sleeper, ESPN, whatever. I am seven spots higher than the market on Luther Burden. Of course, this is a screenshot from the basementdraftguide.com.
1:10Check it out now. It has my rankings, target rounds, player notes, targets, fades. You can see Luther Burden obviously a target here. The flex check
1:17tool, league sync, everything you could possibly want. The basementdraftguide.com. And of course, if you are a Patreon member, you get it
1:25for 50% off. And if you're an annual member, you get it for free. Now, let's dive into Luther Burden because the
1:31thesis of this video is we are taking home run swings, right?
1:35These are guys who are drafting as the wide receiver 22, a guy who is going to be in your wide receiver two spot or in
1:41your flex spot. And you want the upside of can this guy get to 16, 17 points per game to be a wide receiver
1:50one? And with Luther Burden, it's a home run swing. It's a leap of faith. And of course, the leap of faith is that he had
1:55a small sample of routes. We were talking 242 routes in the regular season, 307 if you include the playoffs.
2:02But, the yards per route run number on those routes is just too good to ignore.
2:06This is from JJ Zachariason. In terms of rookie wide receivers since 2011 with 50 or more targets and a yards per route
2:12run rate over 2.3, Luther Burden ends up on a list with Odell Beckham, A.J.
2:16Brown, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase, Brian Thomas, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey. And then, if you include the playoffs, it's
2:22still 2.34, a really strong number in this range with a lot of elite producers. Now, if you want to even go
2:30further than that, we have a Rich Rebar tweet here showing that if you just look at players with 200 plus routes with
2:35over a 2 yards per route run where they ran a team they ran a route on fewer than 50% of the team drop backs, you get
2:42a different list. It's Christian Watson, Tank Dell, Tyreek Hill, Robert Foster, Chris Godwin.
2:47It's not amazing. It's not bulletproof, but the upside is there. We're talking Tyreek Hill. We're talking Chris Godwin.
2:53Christian Watson has had his bright spots, and of course, Tank Dell got hurt.
2:58It's a boom-bust profile. It is a home run swing, but one that I'm willing to take. You have to chase this yards per
3:03route run number. And then, he's also in a Ben Johnson offense. So, we're going to get fireworks here. In three seasons
3:09with Detroit and one season with Chicago, Ben Johnson has been top 10 in passing yards each of those years and top 10 in passing touchdowns in each of
3:18those years. We now get year two in this system with Caleb Williams.
3:22And now, the small sample trap of the low routes are going to come up because D.J. Moore leaves, of course, and goes
3:28to the Buffalo Bills. And now, all of a sudden, Luther Burden will be a full-time wide receiver for the first time in the NFL, and that is exciting.
3:36Now, of course, he's not going to maintain a 2.75 yards per route run, but if he can maintain a 2 plus yards per
3:41route run in a full-time role with Ben Johnson as the slot flanker YAC archetype, that's really exciting. This is a team last
3:51year that didn't have a single receiver inside of the top 36 in the NFL in yards after the catch. Of course, Luther
3:57Burden was fourth in YAC per reception.
3:59He was top 10 in his tackles forced per reception. He is their only after-the-catch explosive playmaker, and that's exciting. Also, he's getting
4:08non-stop buzz. I hate to really buy too much into camp reports, but we're getting it all. Ben Johnson, I'm buying Luther Burden stock right now. You got
4:15the GM Ryan Poles saying, "If there's a guy I'm really excited about, it's Luther Burden. Can feel the fire inside of him." They are going nuts. We already
4:23saw him flashing a bigger role in week 17 last year where he went for 27.8 PPR points on eight catches for 138 yards
4:29and a touchdown versus the 49ers. Now, we haven't acknowledged the rest of the room, right? Of course, you have Roman Wilson heading into year three. You have
4:36Cole Kmet and Loveland heading into year two. And honestly, I like all of these guys. I'm drafting all of them. I have
4:41Luther Burden as a target in the draft guide. I have Cole Kmet and Loveland as a target in the draft guide. O'Donnell
4:45is not a target for me, but he's somebody that I'm right on par with the market. I have him as a 5-6 turn wide receiver pick. I
4:52definitely understand and respect his upside as a year three breakout candidate, but I'd also say if I came to you guys here and gave you both Luther
4:59Burden and Roman Wilson as breakout candidates, I'd be hedging my bets and kind of being cowardly.
5:05But, I also don't think that you have to push one up and then push down the other.
5:09We have a situation here with Ben Johnson where this the sky is the limit. There is no balance here because there's going to be
5:16so many passing yards and passing touchdowns that it isn't a situation of too many mouths to feed. It is how big
5:22can you dream? Is kind of what we're dealing with here. This is from me on Twitter where essentially this guy was
5:27talking about the there's only so many guys that can go around. There's only so many options. We saw this in Detroit
5:32with Jared Goff where he threw for 4,600 yards and 37 touchdowns.
5:37Amon-Ra was the wide receiver four in points per game. Jameson Williams was the wide receiver 23. LaPorta was the tight end eight. Now, don't get me
5:43wrong. If Cole Kmet and Loveland finish as the tight end eight, that would be a huge bummer. But, there's also no Jahmyr
5:47Gibbs and David Montgomery taking a ton of touches out of the backfield. We have De'Andre Swift, you have Kalen Ballage, this is a team that's going to lean on
5:54the passing game. And I'm also not saying that Luther Burden's going to be the wide receiver four, right? This might be a situation where Burden's the
6:00wide receiver 10, Odunze is the wide receiver 23, and then Colson Loveland's like the tight end three. I don't think that that's that crazy. Of course, in
6:07that situation, I think Caleb Williams would be a massive league winner, but that's all on the table in this offense.
6:13The sky is the limit and we're dreaming big about breakout wide receivers, I want to be betting on Luther Burden.
6:19Now, moving on from that, we have my next breakout candidate, Christian Watson. Now, this one's a little bit tricky. He's going into year five.
6:26That's not quite our normal traditional breakout, but he's my 509 as my wide receiver 27. I am 10 spots higher than consensus and he has
6:35been a target for me. When we look at the most impactful seasons at wide receiver since 2021. I just did a video on draft strategy,
6:46honestly one of my favorite videos we've ever done where I talked about wins above replacement and then wins above replacement over expectation based on
6:52where you were drafted. And when we look at since 2021, every wide receiver season to exceed their expectation by one or more wins
7:00above replacement, essentially league winner seasons, you can see here, yes, you have Keenan Allen and Mike Evans, but all of these receivers fall inside
7:07of their top six seasons in the NFL in terms of career years. And in fact, the best season, Cooper Kupp, was in year
7:14five. Now, I'm not saying that Christian Watson's going to be Cooper Kupp, but I'm saying this could be where the peak
7:19is and somebody for Christian Watson who's been banged up or limited in routes, it's a little bit more of a choppy
7:25murky situation as he climbs to a true breakout and this could finally be that year. We look at where wide receivers
7:33tend to peak. This is a old school Ryan Heath article. I say old school now because I can't access this on Fantasy
7:38Points anymore, but he's of course a great follow. You can see here, year five is the peak. That is the one, the
7:44season where it all goes down for these wide receivers.
7:48And with Christian Watson, again, the issue has been that he hasn't been on the field enough, but when he's on the
7:52field, he is outrageous. These are the other receivers heading into year five this season. His points per game is low because he doesn't have the route share
7:59of those other guys, but on a per route basis, he's amazing. Two plus yards per route run for his entire career is right there
8:06with Chris Olave and Drake London. 8.9% first downs per route run is right there with George Pickens and Trey McBride.
8:1221% targets per route run, not quite as high, but when you're running downfield as much as he is, you get a ton of
8:17efficiency.
8:19So, the elephant in the room is health and playing full-time receiver.
8:24Through four years, his route share has been 53%, 78%, 61%, and 72%.
8:32His career high 78% route share would have been 49th among wide receivers last year, but he's a full season off of the torn ACL.
8:40Last year, he proved that he could stay healthy and be dominant, and now we have Romeo Doubs getting moved, Dontayvion Wicks getting moved, and it opens things
8:48up for Christian Watson to now have a full share of routes. This is somebody that over a 13-game sample in his career
8:55at a 75% plus route share is at 17.5 points per game, which would have been the wide receiver six last year. We've
9:02already seen it. That's a stat, by the way, from Ryan Heath as well. And I think that we could also see a nice role
9:08change. We look at horizontally breaking routes. These are some of the more juiced efficiency routes in the NFL.
9:14We're talking crossers, digs, outs, slants, posts, corners, things where you're getting over the middle of the defense or out towards the sideline, and
9:23Christian Watson was dominant on these.
9:25You can see yards per route run 3.89.
9:27We're looking at all the Packers wide receivers from last year. 3.89 yards per route run on these routes is absurd.
9:34And now Romeo Doubs is gone, and Dontayvion Wicks is gone, and a lot of those routes are going to go to
9:38Christian Watson. The early reporting out of camp so far is that Matthew Golden's going to play X in a field-stretching role, and Christian
9:44Watson's going to get moved around the formation as the flanker Z, which is very encouraging. These horizontally breaking routes are a cheat code for
9:52fantasy football. If we look at the guys who led the league in horizontally breaking routes by yards, it was JSN, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and those
10:01guys all had 11.7, 9.7, and 10.2 A dots on those routes. We could see Christian Watson go from a guy who was only a
10:08field stretcher at like a 17-yard A dot down to maybe 13 yards in terms of his A dot, his average depth of target
10:13downfield, as a more versatile wide receiver.
10:17And then all of a sudden you're dealing with 16-17 points per game as a wide receiver one. The floor of offense is
10:23always score points, and I'm higher on Jordan Love than others. He's been very efficient on a per attempt basis, and with Josh Jacobs' uncertainty and with
10:30Micah Parsons hurt on the defense, we could finally see this passing offense unleashed. Now, our third breakout candidate for 2026,
10:40Emeka Egbuka. And it's so simple with this one. He is my 308. I'm nine spots higher than consensus.
10:47You don't really have to have a crazy imagination on this one cuz we've already seen it. Through five career games, he was at 102.4 PPR points behind
10:55only Puka Nacua and Randy Moss through a player's first five career games. That is a 20-plus point per game outcome through five games.
11:03And also, when you compare him to Randy Moss and Ja'Marr Chase over a sample like that, he's toe-to-toe right there.
11:1025 catches, 445 yards, and five touchdowns. He was doing big boy stuff.
11:15Now, I'll also say, of course, Mike Evans was there, so he got to play uh at the Z spot in the slot. And then even
11:21when Evans got hurt in week four, we had Emeka Egbuka go for five catches, 102 yards, and a touchdown versus Philly, a good defense, and then seven
11:30catches, 163 yards, and a touchdown versus Seattle.
11:34The top three PPR point scorers against Seattle last year, the Super Bowl winning defense, was Puka Nacua, Puka Nacua, and Emeka Egbuka. They were the
11:43only receivers to go for over 160 yards. Just a crazy, crazy performance against those teams. And again, he kind of did it out of position. And this is
11:53the exciting part about this year is that Zach Robinson comes over to Tampa, and now all of a sudden we are not going
11:58to have Emeka Egbuka lining up at the X, right? Once Evans went down, Egbuka then has to play out of position, and then
12:04now he's getting banged up with a hamstring injury, and then things kind of fall apart from there. Well, this year we have reports here that Zach
12:10Robinson says second-year wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is going to settle into the Z role. He's going to be off the line,
12:14moved around, and then we have a true X in Ted Hurst. And then there's also some talk that Jalen McMillan will play at
12:20the X as well. But the real takeaway that Matt Harmon talks about here, this is a big deal for Egbuka to play in his
12:25natural position. And when we talk about Zach Robinson coming over from the Falcons, he unlocked Drake London in this exact way. Uh this is from Matt
12:34Harmon's Reception Perception blurb talking about London.
12:37London went from a mostly pure X receiver in his first two seasons with Arthur Smith taking an average of 82% of
12:43his sampled snaps and 84% on the line, so that's X receiver dealing with press coverage, to then being a Z receiver
12:50with heavy slot work. And if we can get that transformation for Egbuka, the sky's the limit. I love this team getting healthy as well, of course.
12:57Baker Mayfield is getting healthy. This offensive line last year was a shell of itself. It is the third-ranked offensive line over on Establish the Run, and they
13:05suffered significant injuries to both guards and right tackle last year. They missed 27 starts between them. So now they're getting healthy. That also
13:13showed up in the offensive efficiency last year. They were seventh in offensive efficiency through six weeks, and then after week seven they were at
13:1925th. So I think this whole offense bounces back. I think this passing game lives through Egbuka. We also get his deep ball kind of unlocked here, where
13:27that was his superpower last year of Abuka where he was seventh with 382 yards on passes of 20 or more air yards.
13:34So, like these deep bombs he was going crazy on, but he had 291 of those 382 yards through 5 weeks. Now, he does
13:41profile like a Z flanker slot target hog similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown, but I also think he has some verticality to his
13:48game similar to a JSN. Baker Mayfield through 5 weeks was fourth in deep throw percentage at 15.1% from week 6 on, he was at 8.9%. He was
13:57just clearly a shell of himself. He wasn't pushing the field as aggressively. I think we get back to that this season. And Zach Robinson
14:03again is honestly a huge upgrade not only for Abuka, but for the whole offense. Well, if you look at during snap motion,
14:11Zach Robinson was second in the NFL last year from Ryan Heath, and Baker Mayfield was second in the NFL in terms of
14:17increasing his adjusted net yards per attempt with during snap motion. So, this is perfect marriage. We're going to see more motion. I think Abuka's going
14:24to be used heavily in motion, and then it's going to juice the efficiency of Abuka and Baker Mayfield. So, it's all
14:30there. Give me the year two breakout.
14:31Zach Robinson has been on staff for Drake London's breakout. He's been on staff for the Cooper Kupp 2021 season.
14:37Uh and I think of Emeka Egbuka could be the next monster season uh under his play calling. Then we have Ladd McConkey going into year three.
14:47This is your more obvious year three breakout. Everybody loves Ladd McConkey. He's my 402. He's going off the board at the 409. I am
14:56seven spots higher than consensus. And I think that similar to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you can kind of draw a lot of injury related conclusions
15:05for the Chargers. This is from a Ladd McConkey interview where he says he got healthy this summer. He's in a good
15:10spot. And similar deal, so was the offensive line. Last year the Chargers offense from Bill Barnwell here was third in the league in EPA per play with
15:18Joe All on the field, and then they dropped to 26 without Joe All. They're also getting Roshan Slater back and this
15:24whole offense should bounce back.
15:27Again, it's an obvious year three breakout candidate. His per route metrics over his entire career have been absolutely awesome. When you look at the
15:342024 class, it's Neighbors, it's Brock Bowers, and then it's Ladd McConkey. His per route numbers are great in terms of targets per route run, yards per route
15:42run, first downs per route run. I will add, I do think that Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas are awesome this year. Of
15:48course, Malik Neighbors isn't really a breakout candidate. Brian Thomas was like the wide receiver 11 in points per game as a rookie, so he doesn't really
15:53count towards a breakout. But, the more I look at it, the more I'm like, "Man, I get the Parker Washington thing, but I
16:01do think that Brian Thomas has a massive, massive ceiling this year. But, going back to Ladd McConkey, he was the wide receiver 16 in points per game as a
16:08rookie. His per route metrics are super solid and I want to buy back in on the talent in this new scheme with Mike
16:13McDaniel. This is from Ryan Heathier who had a great article over on Fantasy Points talking about the new play caller. I had him on this channel
16:20talking through all of that and I think that when we also talk about these breakouts, I think having a change of situation,
16:29whether it's a player going to a new team or a new play caller coming in.
16:33When you look at JSN last year, that was Clint Kubiak coming in for Ryan Grub.
16:36You look at Chris Olave, that was Kellen Moore coming in to the Saints offense.
16:40George Pickens last year, he goes from the Steelers to the Cowboys. So, there's some change of the situation that kind of
16:47unearths these breakouts is what I would say and I think that this Mike McDaniel coming in helps that. I mean, we all
16:52know it, the play action dropback rate, the during snap motion rate, all the cheat code stuff, that's what he's doing. And then you look at Ladd
16:58McConkey when he works down field in a similar way to Tyreek Hill. I know it's crazy to say that Ladd McConkey has some
17:02Tyreek Hill to his game, but you can kind of squint and see it. We look at yards per route run on go routes
17:09since 2022, it is Puka, Jayden Reed, AJ Brown, Ladd McConkey, and then Tyreek Hill. McConkey, despite the down year last season, if you look at just his
17:17games with Joe Alt, 2.7 yards per route run on go routes is great. Without 1.95, not very good. And then in 2024, 4.17
17:25yards per route run on go routes is nuts. If we can get Mike McDaniel, Justin Herbert, and Ladd McConkey all on
17:31the same page with these go routes downfield in addition to all the fun slot work and motion, there's top 12 in Ladd McConkey's range
17:40of outcomes here this season. And then we can also talk about the addition of Charlie Kolar and David Njoku and what
17:46that means for this offense. We're going to see more heavy sets for this offense and that juices wide receiver efficiency. Ladd McConkey last year only
17:53ran 9.9% of his routes from sets with fewer than three wide receivers.
17:57Essentially, if you put a tight end on the field instead of a receiver, that receiver is going to draw more targets
18:03and more yards because receivers are just as a whole better than the blocking tight ends like Charlie Kolar. Now, you get Mike McDaniel, who had Jaylen Waddle
18:11last year, on the field 46% of the time with fewer than three wide receivers.
18:17So, that should almost quadruple Ladd McConkey's rate in terms of those heavy set personnels. And then all of a sudden his efficiency can jump even more than
18:25that. So, Ladd McConkey to me is super obvious. I'm not telling you anything you don't know. His price is expensive for a reason, but I'm willing to pay up.
18:31Now, probably our cheapest receiver on this list is Josh Downs. And I think that he can PPR his way to like the wide
18:37receiver 11, the wide receiver 12 as like a 15-point per game guy. He's a year-four breakout candidate. Of course, last year George Pickens was year four
18:46and Chris Olave was year four. Our kind of lever here, right? McDaniel coming over to the Chargers, is Michael Pittman now getting traded away in kind of a
18:56vote of confidence from Shane Steichen of hey, we're going to feature Josh Downs this year. Uh this is somebody that I think can really challenge for
19:02100-plus receptions. You have this from Coach Speak Index where Shane Steichen had a sit-down interview saying, "When it comes to Josh Downs' involvement, he
19:09wants to get him involved in any way we can, whether it's in 12 personnel."
19:12obviously he plays a lot in the slot in 11 personnel, but just trying to find different ways to get him the ball. This
19:17is a team that didn't have a ton of pressure to move off of Michael Pittman, but I think that it just sort of gives a
19:21vote of confidence in what they feel towards Josh Downs. And the big thing for him is almost the inverse of what we
19:27just talked about Ladd McConkey, where these heavier tight end sets breed efficiency, Josh Downs hasn't had that benefit. He has been in three wide
19:34receiver sets exclusively, and if we look at the data here among 74 wide receivers who have run 450 or more routes out of 11 in the past two years,
19:42and ranks both top 10 in targets per route run and first downs per route run.
19:45So, not only are you commanding volume, but you are being an engine of your offense, it is Josh Downs, and then it's
19:50Puka, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Drake London, Mike Evans. It is elite elite company, and again, it's like playing on expert difficulty when
19:59you are playing in only 11 personnel, fending for targets with Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and then even Adonai Mitchell. Say whatever you want
20:06about Adonai Mitchell, on a per route basis, he's drawing targets. So, Josh Downs having strong per route metrics in essentially exclusively three or more
20:13wide receiver sets is super encouraging.
20:16And then of course, Alec Pierce is dealing with an ankle injury, he might be kind of a decoy only field stretcher
20:21this year, and then Daniel Jones off the Achilles tear might be more inclined to get the ball out quick and find Josh
20:27Downs underneath. So, he's going off the board in the 10th round by consensus. He is my 710. He is somebody that I'm drafting a lot of.
20:36Then our last breakout wide receiver candidate is a little bit of a cheat, but here's what I'll say.
20:43Zay Flowers was in the intro as the wide receiver 12 in points per game last year, finishing as a wide receiver one
20:47for the first time in his career, but it doesn't really count. He wasn't like a massive league winner in any way, and
20:53then also his 14.3 points per game would have been the wide receiver 20 in 2024.
20:59So, it was really more a product of a down season from that wide receiver like 10 through 20 area than it was Zay
21:07Flowers having this monster year. But, it was still impressive. Finishing as a wide receiver one when your quarterback Lamar Jackson goes down and gets hurt
21:13and is kind of a shell of himself all year is a real deal. And then, his lever to spark a change is we get a new OC.
21:21Todd Monken goes to Cleveland. We get Decklin Doyle in. And all of a sudden, things can get exciting. On top of that,
21:25Isaiah likely leaves, who's one of the bigger red zone targets on this team.
21:29And now, Zay Flowers, somebody who only scored five touchdowns last year and his biggest issue is red zone targets, now could potentially be featured in the red
21:37zone, where we could see this passing offense flow through Zay Flowers. This is somebody in Lamar Jackson who has had seasons of 36 and 41 passing touchdowns.
21:44And Decklin Doyle is going to bring a lot of play action to this offense.
21:48Again, all the play caller stuff is awesome and unreal from Ryan Heath. Uh he showed the play action drop back rate
21:54for Lamar Jackson and then his fantasy points per game in those seasons.
21:57Essentially, when he's top 10 in play action rate, he ends up with 20 plus points per game. And Decklin Doyle underneath
22:03with Jacob Gibbs' tweet here showing that when he was with the Broncos, they were 10th in play action rate, the Bears
22:08were second in play action rate last year. And if they're top 10 in play action rate again this season, that's a
22:13huge boost for Zay Flowers, who leads all qualifying wide receivers in yards per route run on play action passes over the last two seasons. So, now we get a
22:21talented player in a good offense benefiting from play action.
22:25Yes, there's Rashod Bateman, Jacobi Lane, Elijah Serratt, Mark Andrews, but none of these guys are meaningful target competition that could hold him back
22:32from a true monster breakout. With Zay Flowers, I'm not talking like can he finish as the wide receiver 12 this year? It's more I really do think that
22:39he has top six upside in this offense with the new change. Again, he's a talented player. Last year, if we look
22:45at the 10 wide receivers or tight ends to run 200 or more routes, have a 20% plus targets per route run, a 10 plus
22:50yards per target, and a 10% plus first downs per route run, he's in really good company. Last year, 25% targets per route run, 10 plus yards
22:58per target, 10 plus first downs per route run. That's essentially his target earning, his target efficiency, and then him being an offensive engine in moving
23:05the chain. He's a good player who has increased his yards per route run every year of his career. He went from 1.72 to
23:102.25 to 2.53. And now it feels like everything is coming together for this year for Crescendo with a new offensive coordinator, and I am very excited about
23:21it. I have him as my 307. I'm drafting him nine spots ahead of consensus as the wide receiver 14 off the board, but that
23:28is going to do it for us today. That is my six breakout wide receiver candidates for 2026. Again, as always, if you want
23:35access to the full rankings, you can get that over on the basementdraftguide.com.
23:39I'll have links in the description and the comment section down below. There you can get my tier top 200, target rounds, player
23:45notes, targets, fades, all my draft tools. You can sync it to your league, and then on top of that, that's going to
23:52be for your draft.
23:53You sign up for the Patreon, the Patreon is for in-season. So, your weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, your waiver wire articles, your dynasty
24:00rankings, all of that good stuff. The premium Discord where we have subscriber leagues and all of that going on. You can find that on the Patreon. If you
24:07sign up for the Patreon, you get the draft guide for half off. If you sign up for the Patreon for the full year, you
24:11get the draft guide for free. Check that all out down below, but if not, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and I
24:16will see you guys in the next one.
24:23>> Oh, yeah.
24:25This is [music] my kind of [singing] love.
24:30Yeah.
24:31Oh, yeah.
24:32Give [singing and music] me a stance like this froze, ice cold.
24:37Oh, oh.
24:39Ice around my body like I'm froze.
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