0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement, Omron. When your league mates load into your fantasy football draft this summer, this is what they're
0:07going to see. Their board isn't going to be ranked by the ADP. It's going to be ranked by the default rankings on that
0:13site. This is Yahoo, which is sorted by the X rank. You also have ESPN here sorted by their default rankings, and
0:18you actually have to scroll all the way past their projections just to get to the ADP tab. Most of your casual league
0:25mates aren't going to know to sort by ADP or bring their own rankings. They're just going to be drafting off of what is
0:29given to them. And these are very easily exploitable. So today we're going to look at high stakes ADP, real money leagues where all the experts are
0:37drafting and leverage them against the default rankings that your league mates will be using and find the studs that are hiding down the board. Today we are
0:45on a mission to find the best value pick in every round of your fantasy football draft. As always, if you enjoy, leave a
0:52like, subscribe if you're new, and let's talk about where we're getting our high stakes ADP. To me, this is the most
0:57sharp free ADP data out there. This is from the NFC online championship. It's a $350 league. One quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a
1:08tight end, a flex spot, full PPR. There is real money on the line and we took the last week of data and that gives us
1:16this. Now, I will say they made their whole site night mode and I think it's kind of hideous, but that's besides the
1:20point. All we need is the data. We have the ADP data and I think when you look at the first two rounds, this ADP checks
1:26out, right? It looks about right for what a sharp league should be drafting.
1:30It's Gibbs, Bejon, Chase, Puka, St.
1:32Brown, JSN. Across the board, it passes the smell test. And that takes us here to the ADP edge tool in the basement
1:38draft guide. That's where I took the high stakes ADP from the last week. We have Consensus ADP from Fantasy Pros, Sleeper ADP. I will say Sleeper actually
1:46has their default rankings already sorted by ADP. So, the default rankings thing is really only for ESPN and Yahoo, but we have it all across the board. You
1:54can scroll all the way through, see the biggest values, the guys who are reaches in your league. You can even take my
1:59rankings if you want and see who I have ranked higher than Consensus here. And then you can even mix and match. If you
2:05say, "Okay, I want to see Ron's rankings, but only against Sleeper." You can see that as well. I know for the
2:11past 2 years, this tool has been free, but I wanted to make it better. We're pulling data. This being pretty and
2:16interactive and everything, it costs money. I am paying a web designer. So, it just can't be free anymore. When we did the original spreadsheet back in
2:232024, it wasn't updated. Like you guys watched the video and then for a week or two the data goes stale because ADPs
2:30change, the consensus rankings and the default rankings on these sites change and all of the data goes stale. So, this is a living breathing tool that updates
2:39every single day as the default rankings and the ADPs change. And you can use this all the way through week one to
2:45find the best values in your league. I think it makes the most sense. You can find it over in the draft guide, the
2:51basementdraftguide.com. You of course get access to the ADP edge tool. You get my draft board as well, my rankings, my full PPR rankings, half PPR rankings, my
2:59player notes, my flex check tool, the ADP edge tool we just showed here. All of that can be found in the description
3:04in the comment section down below. Get it before your draft. On top of that, we have the inseason offerings over on the
3:11Patreon. patreon.comrron Stewart. That is going to be your in-season weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, waiverwire article, start sitch streams every single Sunday.
3:20And of course, if you sign up for the Patreon, you get the draft guide for half off. If you sign up for the Patreon
3:25annually, you get the draft guide for free. Now, I will say as well in this video, we're not going to spend a ton of
3:29time on player takes. This is looking at who the high stakes players like more than consensus. But as you can see,
3:35Ashen Genty is a target for me. A lot of these players I like as well, but this isn't a me selling you on this player.
3:41It's more this player is of value and here's why you should draft him.
3:45Starting with Ashton Gent here, he's coming in as the consensus 111, but in high stakes leagues, he's going at the 108. That is a three spot value by
3:54consensus, six spot value on Sleeper, seven spot value on ESPN, a five spot value on Yahoo. He is a second round
4:01pick across all three of the major sites. This is somebody that I would have as my 109 and you can get him at
4:06the one two turn in your league. The sell on Ashen Jetty to me is pretty simple. He's going to have a lot of
4:13volume, particularly through the air.
4:15When we look at the Mike Clay projections, he is tied with Jir Gibbs for the third highest target share among all running backs. He had 55 catches
4:22last year, seventh among all running backs, and that should go up this season. He is the bellcow for the Raiders, which of course doesn't carry a
4:29lot of weight. It's the Raiders. But Kubak comes in, he signs Tyler Linderbomb, and all of a sudden this offensive line is improving. All of a
4:35sudden, Kubak is going to get the most out of this team's offense. I think there's some upside for this offense to
4:40be better than expected when you have someone like Mendoza, who's a little bit of a mystery box first round pick. And
4:45then on top of that, even if the touchdowns aren't there in a high-scoring offense, they should be condensed around Ashton Genty. Last year
4:53on the Seahawks, Kubak had the second highest rush rate inside of the 5yd line and the second highest inside of the 20.
4:59So in the red zone, in close, he is running the ball and Genty benefits from that with all of those goal line
5:05opportunities. Then we get to round two and this is where we get like the real values here. Kenneth Walker going off
5:11the board the consensus 208. You can get him at the 211 or the 210 over on Sleeper on ESPN. Over in high stakes, he
5:18is the 204. So you're getting about a half a round of value on Kenneth Walker.
5:22He is also one of my favorite legendary upside swings early on in the draft.
5:27This is I I think that we've just kind of been I guess stung a bit by these Chiefs running backs whether it's Clyde
5:33overair Isaiah Pacheco but once upon a time Andy Reid running backs used to be something we were very excited for. This
5:40is from Ian Hardit here of course after the Kareem Hunt Pacheco Derrick McKinnon Clyde Edwards air Damen Williams years to me Kenneth Walker is the most
5:48talented running back that Andy Reed has had since at least Kareem Hunt. And you can see from Kareem Hunt and on, we're
5:53talking RB8, RB5 after Spencer Wear, RB2, RB7, RB1, Lean McCoy, Brian Westbrook. I think this is going to be Kenneth Walker's year with the Chiefs.
6:02You have Mahomes coming off an ACL tear.
6:04They're going to run the offense through Kenneth Walker. This is a team that has a top 10 offensive line according to
6:10Establish the run. We also saw in 2024 Kenneth Walker really shine as a bellcow running back. He was on a 70 reception
6:17pace. Of course, he gets hurt and only plays 11 games. And that is the big hold up with Kenneth Walker. But as we've
6:22highlighted in these strategy videos, we want upside in the early rounds. And also running backs are injuryprone until they aren't. You can look at Jonathan
6:29Taylor. You can look at Christian McCaffrey. These players find health.
6:34They play a full season. And if Kenneth Walker plays a full 17 games on this offense, I think he's set up to crush.
6:39Then we'll talk about Brock Bowers. He's not a massive value, right? He's going off the board consensus 210. In high stakes, he's the 208. But why that is
6:48noteworthy is because these tight ends in this high stakes format over on the NFC, they just get devalued. It's a three wide receiver format. No one wants
6:55to pay up for tight ends. And you can see across the top five tight ends in consensus ADP, all of them are getting
7:03overdrafted compared to the high stakes ADP. Brock Bowers are the only one with green across the board. So to me that
7:10signals that even in a setting where Titans get pushed up in home leagues for Brock Bowers to still be lacking behind
7:16the high stakes ADP that is a big deal.
7:18Now of course don't draft him on a team with Genty. You probably want to limit how many Raiders or Jets or Browns or
7:23Cardinals that you have on your team.
7:25But taking a stab at Brock Bowers when especially in full PPR he could just be an absolute monster who gaps the field
7:31at tight end. This is somebody that through 29 career games is only behind OBJ, Puka, and Michael Thomas in receptions for a player's first 29
7:40games. He could lead the NFL in receptions and gap the field at tight end. And when all of these tight ends
7:45are pushed up in home leagues, why not pay up for Brock Bowers and then kind of scoop up the value later on on other
7:52positions. After that, we have the third round. And this is where we get real values. Malik Neighbors, the high stakes guys aren't concerned at all when it
8:00comes to the injury. He's coming off an ACL tour, but it seems like he's going to be ready to go for week one. He is
8:05the 209 in high stakes. You can get him in the third round across the board.
8:09Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo as a massive value. And then we have Dvonte Smith.
8:14He's the 310 by consensus, the 305 in high stakes. Not like a massive value there, but specifically Sleeper. Devonte Smith as a fourth round pick on Sleeper
8:24is pretty absurd. This is somebody that on a 187 route sample without AJ Brown was the wide receiver eight in yards per
8:31route run, wide receiver six in targets per out run, wide receiver four in expected fantasy points per route run.
8:37This is going to be his offense. He's the top dog. I have Dvonte Smith as a fringe backend wide receiver one. Then
8:43we have the fourth round. And we actually just talked about both of these players. I'll link somewhere up top here when we talked about the breakout wide
8:50receivers this season. I love Amechabuka. I love Vlad Makoni. The only guys who like achabuka more than me are the high stakes bros. 211 is where he's
9:00going over on the he is the 402 by consensus. So he's somebody that can go anywhere in the fourth round in your
9:06home league. And if achabuka is there in the fourth round, take him. This is somebody with monster upside. We saw him
9:12average 20 plus points per game over his first five games. And then Llad Makoni, similar value here. Should be a third
9:17round pick, but you can get him in the fourth round of your home league. Both of these guys have offenses that are
9:22getting healthy. Both of these guys have new play callers and both have a ton of upside as breakout wide receivers. Then
9:29the fifth round here, we have a couple of options. First, we'll talk about Beasel Tutin. He's not a massive value, right? Over in high stakes, he's the
9:39507. By consensus, he's the 5'11, but he is the RB25. The high stakes community is four spots higher than that. And
9:47here's why I have him here. This is a spot where we want to be drafting wide receivers in home leagues. You'll see
9:52this this area from like round three through round eight is just a ton of value at wide receiver. We probably want
9:57to get our running backs in early is the overarching theme of this video. If you want a strategy takeaway, it's that
10:03there is get your running backs in early and then these wide receiver values later on in your home league is pretty
10:09absurd. Now with Basil Tuin, if you're going to take a swing in this round 56 area, it's Basil Tuin for me. We talked
10:16about this in the strategy video that the RB dead zone still alive. You can see there from about pick 50 to pick 75,
10:22wide receivers outp project the running backs in this range. So if you're going to draft a running back in this area, it
10:28has to be for ceiling because if you're drafting for floor, you should just be drafting the wide receivers who already project for more than the running backs.
10:35And Basil Tuton to me is the best home run swing in this area in your home league. We have running back fantasy
10:42performance by career year. This is an old article from Ryan Heath. in year one to year two is the biggest jump in
10:48performance that we see for a running back. If things were going to come together for Basil Tuin, it would be this year. And I know that there's a lot
10:54of talk about Chris Rodriguez in practice, but when we're talking about this goal line role, right, the big concern is that Chris Rodriguez has the
11:01goal line role. Last year, Basil Tutin had a lot of carries with three or less yards to go and he had a better success
11:08rate than Chris Rodriguez last year. I'm not saying that Chris Rodriguez isn't going to get some of the short yardage looks, whether that's goal line, whether
11:15that's third and two, but there's also something to be said that I think it's going to be a split between the two of
11:20them. Basil 2 in last year, if you want some propaganda here from Ian Hardit, was third best in rushing success rate,
11:2610th in tackles avoided per carry, 12th in yards after contact per carry. This is somebody that was steady in short yardage situations, and then also has 43
11:34speed coming out of college with explosive playmaking upside. And the biggest cheat code in a Jaguars offense with Liam Cohen is the screen game. ETN
11:44last year was one of four running backs with 40 or more PPR points added on designed targets. It was Bejon, it was
11:51McAffrey, it was Gibbs, and then it was ETN. He leaves. Now that role goes over to Basil Tuin, similar to what we saw
11:57with Liam Cohen on the Buccaneers with Bucky Irving. He really likes to feature his running back not only in the passing
12:04game, but like in the designed passing game where he's getting them screen targets out in space and drawing up plays for them. And I think that Tuin's
12:10going to get that. So, we're going to see Tuon as the lead back. He's going to at worst in my eyes split goal line
12:15carries. And then the receiving work, specifically the designed receiving work should go to Tuton. And I think that that has all the makings of super
12:23high-end upside, especially on an offense that was sixth in scoring last year. And then we have Jameson Williams, who I almost wrote up for the breakout
12:31wide receiver video. He's somebody a little bit on the older side for a breakout. He's heading into year five, but that is the peak year for wide
12:38receiver production. His issue is that there's just a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, right? Of course, there's going to be a lot of yards, a lot of
12:44touchdowns. It is Jared Goff, Alman Ros, Jamir Gibbs, Sam Laaporta. Here's the tricky part. We saw the upside last year. Leaporta goes down. Dan Campbell
12:53takes over play calling duties. And then Jameson Williams is a back-end wide receiver one in points per game from week nine on with about 16 points per
13:00game. That is huge next to Aman Ross saying Brown. That's really impressive.
13:04We've also seen his game progress here where he had a 16 plus yard a dot. So he was getting his targets were way
13:11downfield in his first two years. But over the last two years he's had a dots of 11.6 and 12.7 going from a deep
13:18threat only receiver to somebody that the Lions now want to feature out in space. digs across the middle, you know, kind of get him horizontal so he can
13:26really take off and run. And that's exciting. He's adding the high ADOT down the field pass catching. Then he's also adding the yak ability when he gets it
13:35in close. And that is just a monster efficiency season waiting to happen where he can go out there and give you
13:4015 16 points per game even next to some of the studs in this offense. Of course, Leaporta is the wet blanket here, but
13:47this is somebody that missed the second half of the season with a back injury.
13:50And if that flares up again, or if they want to kind of save him for the playoffs, then all of a sudden, Jameson
13:54Williams can really step up in this offense. He's a slight value, right?
13:58You're getting him uh 14 spots ahead of Consensus over on High Stakes 408. Uh ESPN is with the times, I guess, having
14:06with the 412, but he's a fifth round take over on Yahoo and Sleeper and a really good value there. Then we have
14:12the sixth round values. Again, more wide receivers.
14:17Christian Watson is a fourth round pick in high stakes. You can get him in the sixth round on Sleeper and the seventh
14:23round over on ESPN. Yahoo. A bit sharper there. But this is somebody we talked up in the breakout video. Full season off a
14:30torren ACL. This is somebody that averages 17.5 points per game when he runs 75% or more of the routes. Now you
14:37have Dobs gone, you have Wix gone, and he should be running a full share of the routes this season. You also have Marvin
14:44Harrison Jr. He's a fifth round pick in high stakes. You can get about a round of value across the board. Sleeper plus
14:5118, ESPN plus 11, Yahoo plus 12.
14:55Third-year breakout. He looks good in reception perception over with Matt Harmon. 80th percentile win rate versus man, 77th versus Press. Laflur wants to
15:03move him around the formation. This could be the breakout for Marvin Harrison Jr. we saw in the the Hall of Fame game. Maybe Carson Beck isn't as
15:11bad as expected in case if he comes in down the stretch. It might not be a death sentence, but it is just
15:16preseason. Uh seventh round values here.
15:19We have both the Jaguars wide receivers.
15:21Now, the high stakes guys love Parker Washington. His ADP over the last week is at the 502. By consensus, Parker Washington is a seventh round pick. He's
15:31a seventh round pick on Sleeper on ESPN.
15:33Even on Yahoo, a six round pick is a fine price for Parker Washington in my eyes. This is somebody that is just
15:39continuing to climb up draft boards and get Cam Pipe. And I'm a sucker for it.
15:43This is somebody that after the by-week last year had 15.8 points per game over a 10ame sample of after the buy, I want
15:50to say it was like week nine, week 10 all the way through the first round of the playoffs. He was amazing. That
15:55number of 15.8 points per game would have been the wide receiver nine last year. But Brian Thomas is also a good
16:00value as well. Oh, you can get him in the seventh round over on ESPN.
16:04Third-year breakout. I want pieces of this Jaguars offense. They were the sixth highest scoring team last season.
16:09Why not take a swing later in your draft on one of these two Jaguars wide receivers? I think one of the two are
16:15going to break out this season. I know that they've already both kind of had breakouts. You know, Brian Thomas, wide receiver, one season as a rookie. Parker
16:22Washington had that late stretch where he did kind of break out, but I'm talking a true breakout in 2026. Then we
16:28have round eight. And here's another one. I'll tell you, the high stakes guys love Parker Washington and they love Jonathan Brooks. Jonathan Brooks is the
16:36608 in this high stakes ADP. By consensus, he's a ninth round pick, but I have him in round eight here because
16:43these sites are getting smarter. Yahoo has him as an eighth round pick where I still think that he's of value there.
16:48And this is me personally giving you a green light to take him in the eighth round. As soon as you look up in the
16:53eighth round is there and you want Jonathan Brooks on your team, go right ahead. take him there. Uh, and here's the thing with Jonathan Brooks. I get it
17:02doesn't feel comfortable, but when we get to this range of the drafts, we want to shoot for league winning upside.
17:07Jonathan Brooks has that second round pick. Yes, he has the double torn ACL, but he is fully healthy by all accounts
17:14here. He has pass catching on his side.
17:16He has youth on his side. Chuba Hubard last year got kind of taken over by Rico Dattle. And we've seen Dave Canales now
17:22do the thing where Chuba Hubard and Rico Da competing for work. And then because Rico Dattle was better, Rico Dattle got
17:28the start. It's a meritocracy here. And if Jonathan Brooks looks really good, he could be somebody that is a league winner down the stretch of your season.
17:35And he's one of those guys like when we talk about the poster boy for a guy when everyone loads into your ESPN draft and
17:42you can just scroll down and find a stud. That's Jonathan Brooks going at the nine at the 911 on ESPN. He's going
17:48at the 1205 on Sleeper. Then we have Jordan Tyson. He's like a slight value here, but to me he is this year's. In
17:552025 was a Mecha Ibuka. In 2024 is Brian Thomas. This guy who can get like the seventh eighth round rookie receiver
18:01with a ton of upside. He is in a really fun offense. Sure, they have OB, but they're going to have a lot of pass
18:06attempts to go around. Last year in this Kell Moore offense, they were 11th in plays per game, first and seconds per
18:11snap, second and no huddle rate. They want to get plays, they want to get to the line, and that means a lot of
18:17receptions, a lot of PPR. and Jordan Tyson already looks awesome in these training camp clips. Then we have the ninth round. This where we get towards
18:26the end of the values, right? Like you're not going to get steals in the ninth round, per se. But these like I
18:32wouldn't call Kenny Gainwell and Blake Cororm RB2s in a hero RB build, but if you want to kind of spam RB3 RB4 in a
18:38hero RB build, the ninth round's a good spot for this. Cororum. I will say the key distinction between Cororum with the
18:45high stakes world and the home league world is I think the home league world's ADP of 9007 sees him as a pure handcuff.
18:53The high stakes world at 706 I think that he has real standalone value in this Rams offense. I'm not quite there
19:00yet. I'm kind of splitting the difference, but I do think Blake Corm in the ninth round is an amazing pick there. Then you also have Kenny
19:06Gainwell, someone that had 70 catches last year. We have seen Zack Robinson sadly use a lot of Bejon, but then also
19:12a lot of Azir. That could be the same thing with Bucky Irving and then Gainwell. There's already talks that he's using like both of them on the
19:18field in what's called pony personnel, which is kind of fun. We'll see. But he's just a a a good value pick here in
19:24the ninth round of your home league. And then Quentyn Johnson's getting disrespected in your home league. He's a ninth round pick. He's going in the
19:31sixth round in high stakes. He was the wide receiver 22 in points per game.
19:34He's going off the board as the consensus wide receiver 44 in the ninth round. There's a really good flex piece with upside. And then we'll talk about
19:43finally, I guess, my sleeper picks that are really good values here. You can see up top, Josh Downs. We talked about him
19:51in the breakout wide receiver video.
19:5310th round consensus pick going off the board in the sixth round of home leagues or the sixth round of high stakes
19:59leagues. He's going in the eighth round of Yahoo and ESPN. I still think that those are great values as well. similar
20:04deal with Jaden Reed, breakout wide receiver candidate going in the ninth round of Yahoo, 10th round elsewhere.
20:09He's a seventh round pick in high stakes. Then you have Don Concaid. When we talk about tight ends being pushed up
20:14in home leagues, to me, he is one of the more fairly priced upside tight ends late in your draft. Uh he is the
20:20consensus 10-11. He is the 1004 in high stakes, but again, remember the Brock Bowers point that tight ends are pushed up in home league. So if there's any
20:27plus there at all for a tight end, they are a good value pick. Then you have Casey Conpsion, one of my favorite
20:34sleeper picks on the board here. He's a 10th round pick over on High Stakes. You can get him maybe in the 11th or 12th
20:40round of your home league. And then you just have some sleeper running back picks. Tyrone Tracy, 10th round pick in high stakes, 11th round pick by
20:47consensus. Kian Mitchell is free. He's a 10th round pick in high stakes. You can get him in the 14th round of sleeper,
20:5314th round of ESPN. Then you have Marshon Lloyd as an 11th round pick in high stakes going in the 17th round of
21:00consensus and he's not even ranked on sleeper at this point. I will say kind of an overarching note here that Yahoo
21:07has by far the best default rankings. So I I will say if your league drafts on Yahoo and you want to be kind of a
21:15little bit slimy, you could really push for ESPN or Sleeper because that's where it seems like the more soft rankings are. But there is still value to be had
21:24over on Yahoo. And then I will give one last note here that we haven't talked about any quarterbacks. And it's because
21:28similar to the tight ends, quarterbacks are pushed up in your home leagues as well. Everyone is just kind of racing to
21:32fill their starting lineup and that creates value later. That is the triedand-true late round quarterback strategy. Nothing novel here. But over
21:41on ESPN, there is some quarterback values to be had. You have Jordan Love, who is a 13th round pick in high stakes.
21:47He's going off the board 17th round over on ESPN. He's just free. Uh Joe Burrow is reasonably priced. Baker Mayfield is
21:54reasonably reasonably priced. And then Jared Goff is reasonably priced over on ESPN. But that is going to do it for us
22:03today. That is the best value in every round of your home league draft. Again, these are all going to change as
22:11Jonathan Brooks skyrockets up and these default rankings on ESPN catch up.
22:16Whether that's in a week or two weeks, all of this will look different and it'll all be updated over on the
22:21basementdraftguide.com.
22:22You'll get access to the ADP edge tool.
22:24You look at the high stakes ADP versus your home league default rankings. You can also look at my rankings versus the
22:29home league default rankings. Get my tier top 200. You get my target rounds for every player. So that idea of Jonathan Brooks, if he's there in the
22:35eighth round, you can take him. I have that written next to Jonathan Brooks.
22:38That is my target round for him. If you look up and oh my god, it's the eighth round and I want Jonathan Brooks, you
22:43can go ahead and take him. Uh, I have my targets, my fades, my sleepers. You have my flex check tool to make sure that
22:48you're drafting wide receivers through the flex plus one or two by the wide receiver cliff. You can sync your league as well. And then on top of that, after
22:56the draft, you have my inseason content over on the Patreon. My weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, waverwire article, all that good stuff and more.
23:02You can sign up for the Patreon and then get the draft guide for half off. If you're on the Patreon annually, you get
23:06the draft guide for free. Hang out with us all season long. Win your draft, win your league, all of the above. that will
23:13be down below in the description and the comment section down below. As always, if you enjoyed this video, leave a like,
23:18subscribe if you're new, and I will see you all in the next one.
23:34>> [music] >> stones like this froze ice cold
