6 Running Backs You'll REGRET DRAFTING
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23 min
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Jun 12, 2026
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Fri, June 12, 2026
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Evan Engram
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Evan Engram
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Analyst would take ETN over Kairen Williams in round three due to being on a great offense without concerns about backup competition.
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Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. Today we're talking about six running backs that I think you might regret drafting this
0:05season. I'm only going to talk about running backs with an ADP inside the top seven rounds or including round seven for our last one. Uh more so because as
0:14the draft gets later and later, you're really not going to regret all that much. If you dropped your 11th 12th round pick after week one, it is not
0:23going to change your odds of making the playoffs at all. So shoot for the moon.
0:27Do whatever you want in the later rounds, but definitely in, you know, the top seven rounds, we're going to want to
0:31be nailing these picks. And so I think you might regret some of these running backs. Also, I'm not going to include
0:37Josh Jacobs here because it feels a little bit like cheating. Obviously, you might regret it drafting Josh Jacobs if he ends up in jail or he's suspended for
0:45half the season, right? Not saying that's going to happen, but it could.
0:48So, it's very easy to put him in the video. It should go without saying that, yeah, you might have some regret there
0:53if that happens. But we will start things off in round four where I think you might regret drafting Bucky Irving.
1:00The vibes are just really bad in Tampa Bay. Uh the injury last season was clearly more severe than they were letting on. Um they've recently said,
1:10you know, not expected back until later in the summer into training camp at some point in training camp. So not to start
1:17training camp, which is late July. that means he might not return until August and he'd be ramped up from that point.
1:24Uh Todd B's head coach um he said they expect him back some point in the summer or fall. Like the vibes are bad here.
1:32Even if he was back, you know, relatively early in camp because of how long this recovery seems to be, it does
1:40not seem like he just returns and he's good to go. There's going to be a ramp up period. We could see start of the
1:46season he's like not fully 100% and you do not want to be taking someone around four when that's the case. But even not
1:52factoring all of that in, think about this backfield. We're probably looking at a committee even when Bucky Irving is like fully healthy. And that's
2:01definitely scary again in round four. Um we know Kenneth Gainwell is an exceptional receiving back. We know that Shawn Tucker is really good at the goal
2:11line as a short yardage back. And so we could have a three running back committee where Bucky is playing like between the 20s mostly on early downs.
2:22He'll have touchdowns. He'll use receiving game. But there is absolutely an outcome here where you have a running back getting 13 carries and one target
2:32every week. And you're going to need some pretty high levels of efficiency if that's going to happen and especially if you're not getting touchdowns. uh
2:39someone like will actually end this video with me asking your thoughts on someone like Kairen Williams, right? One reason it's difficult to fully put Kiran
2:48into this video is because you can say a lot of the same things with a committee, but the touchdowns are there. And as
2:55long as the touchdowns always remain, he's good to go. That's not really the case for Bucky Irving. We're not sitting here expecting Bucky Irving to score 12
3:03touchdowns this season. So, if he doesn't have that, if the receptions come down, if he's coming off what was clearly a major injury, if he's not
3:11going to be healthy to start the year, and then when he's healthy, he's in a three running back committee, there's just a lot of risk factors here where
3:16round four, uh, there's a lot of outcomes where you're regretting that one. Moving a tad later, um, you might regret drafting Jarian Price at the 605,
3:25mid6th round. Uh, first off, huge opportunity cost. And while you don't think you're like, "Well, isn't that kind of like the end of the running
3:33backs we might feel good about?" Okay, well, opportunity cost counts that there's other positions there, um, it's, you know, Drake May, it's Jane Daniels,
3:41you know, this range of elite quarterback is on the board. Uh, you're looking at high upside wide receivers like Mike Evans, Adun, Tyson, Carnell
3:48Tate. Um, there's just a lot at other positions that looks really appealing in this range. And so when you take price,
3:58you're not only saying, I'm taking what I think is a top running back and I don't think is a top running back still
4:02on the board, but you're also foregoing other spots that are really beneficial.
4:06But beyond that, I think there's a lot of wish casting going on here. Uh Price was not that good of a prospect. It was
4:12just a very bad draft class. Seattle didn't even want to take him at 32. They were trying to trade out of that pick,
4:18but because not only the running back class was bad, just the whole entire draft class in general was very poor from a debt perspective. No other team
4:26wanted to trade up to 32. Everyone else was like, "Well, we're not giving anything up next year for you to uh move
4:31out at 32 pick." And so, they're sitting there like, "All right, well, no one's giving us anything. We don't want any of
4:34these players. I guess we'll take Price because we need a running back." That's really what went down there. But, he's not like in most years, he's not a first
4:42round pick. um in terms of like early down efficiency, he's totally fine. Like I think he can be like an early down
4:49grinder, but he was a horrible receiving prospect. And when you look historically at running backs with his reception profile, I mean, 15 career receptions
4:59across 41 college games, like the outlook is horrific. No one ends up being good. In fantasy, people can be productive as like an NFL running back
5:10for their team, but in fantasy football, no one ends up being highly productive with that little of a receiving profile.
5:17And so, that's a huge problem. He's not even the clear-cut starter in camp. He's mixing in with the ones to start camp.
5:24And then there's already reports that, you know, Charbanet is not going to be healthy to start the season. But realistically, what matters most in
5:31fantasy is the back half and into the playoffs. and how the team is talking right now, how it looks when he's out
5:38there, it does seem like they're fully expecting Charbanet back in the second half of the season and that when he's back, he's the guy. Like that's just the
5:46the vibes we're getting from Seattle. It just feels like everyone wants Price to be good because if he is good and he is
5:55featured, there are a ton of opportunities available in Seattle. So, if we got an outcome where he broke out, they're fine using the receiving game,
6:02all that. They're featuring him. Yeah, he's got a ton of upside. But let's not forget just last season, Kenneth Walker, who's clearly a great running back,
6:11clearly better than Charminate, someone they should have been featuring, should have been giving a lot of workload to, they refused to feature even him. So, do
6:18we really think Jerian Price is better than Kenneth Walker right now? Better in the receiving game, better in all these areas of the goal line? No. He's
6:28probably worse in every single one of those areas including on the ground. And so why would we think even to start the
6:34year if if Charban is not there, it's probably still going to be a rotation.
6:38And then when Charbanet comes back, Charban's the goal linebacker for sure.
6:41Charbanet they trust in pass protection.
6:43It just seems like Charbanet to end the season is going to be the running back one. And even to start the year is going
6:48to be committee with Price and he's not going to be used in the receiving game.
6:51And that is just not what we want to be spending a six- round pick on when we could be getting one of the best
6:56quarterbacks, one of the best highest upside quarterbacks, still high up outside wide receivers. Just figure out draft strategy where you're not taking
7:02price in round six. Uh, another running back I think you might regret is Chuba Hubard. Um, he's coming off the board
7:08also in round six. So, it's the exact same thing of this opportunity cost. You have just like slam dunks at other
7:15positions. Why would you take a contested three taking Price and Chuba Hubard in the sixth round? Uh but the biggest issue for Chuba is Jonathan
7:26Brooks is at least there and at least right now as things stand in early to midJune, Jonathan Brooks is attempting
7:34to ramp up. He is currently good to go if he ends up tearing his ACL for a third time. Of course, we change our
7:41opinion, but given the information that we have right now, seems like they want to use Brooks this season. Uh, but even
7:49if you're not like a huge Jonathan Brooks fan, and I fully admit, right, the dude is coming off two torn ACLs,
7:55there's no way in the world he goes out there in week one and is a starter. So, Chuba is going to start with a decent
7:59amount of value. The problem is the Panthers have the hardest schedule in the league this season. Um, all the data tells us that that alone, even without
8:06adjusting for running back strength of schedule on its own, like just like the team's strength of schedule from who they're playing, data tells us it's
8:14really bad for running backs having especially the worst trade the schedule.
8:18But they also have by far the worst strength of schedule when you adjust for rushing. So when you say, okay, add in
8:24rushing efficiency, the defenses that they do play are very good defenses for rushing efficiency. So that's not great.
8:32Um, and it's especially not good for someone like Chuba because he's not a prolific pass catching back. He's fine and when he's the only guy on the
8:39roster, he can rack up 30 35 receptions.
8:42But I think that's how they want to use Brooks. So I think they want to keep him healthy. They want to use Brooks as like
8:47a change of pace back early on. So still mixing in in the run game, but having Chuba be the clear number one, having
8:52Brooks mix in. Then I think they want to use Brooks on third downs, two-minute drill passing stuff. Like I think when
8:58they want to utilize running back in the screen game, get them in space, I think it's Brooks. I think that's, you know,
9:03how they really liked him in college.
9:05Remember, they drafted him to be a featured running back. It's just that you don't take someone off two torn ACLs and make them a feature running back
9:11from week one. That is something that will absolutely have to ramp up as the season goes along. But if they utilize
9:17him in that role, some on early downs in the receiving game, that's a problem for Chuba because not only do they have the
9:24bad schedule and that will limit his total volume and he's not an efficient running back, so he needs all that volume to pay off, but if he's starting
9:31the season with his most value in round six, maybe that ends up being your flex option. But for a lot of you, that might
9:37end up being like kind of your first bench player. And so he's going to have the most value the season when your team
9:43is fully healthy, when you don't have buys, and when you might be benching him. Then all of a sudden, when you need
9:48him, Brooks might be ramping up, taking more and more touches away, and his value kind of goes down. And my expectation is by the end of the season
9:56that, you know, at least like uh valuewise, it could be a 50-50 split.
10:01Maybe Chuba is still getting more work, but since receptions are worth more than carries and targets are worth more than carries, it could be a 50-50 split in
10:10terms of the actual value on the team.
10:12So, or for fantasy. So, again, that's a concern and I really just don't think people take schedule into account enough. We do when the season happens
10:19and we start looking at the schedule, we're like, man, there's every single week there's a tough matchup. But don't overlook the fact that it's not only do
10:25they play good teams, they play good teams with really good run defenses.
10:29specifically. That's just not a situation I want to invest in when I could just draft a quarterback like three through five or one of the high
10:36upside wide receivers in that range.
10:38Next up, RJ Harvey. And this one crushes me because I loved Harvey as a prospect last season. Um I thought that like all
10:46the metrics in college, everything was pointing to him being a really good running back prospect and he just did not hit. And there's just a lot of
10:54warning signs all over the place unfortunately with him coming into this season. Uh, in the off season, they did sign Dobbins to a two-year deal, but it
11:01was effectively a one-year, $8 million extension. That is not backup money.
11:05That is starter money in the NFL at running back. And that makes sense because he was playing ahead of Harvey before getting injured last season. And
11:14when that injury happened, you saw their efficiency tank. I mean, you could just look at the team and their production from on the ground when uh Dobbins was
11:22healthy to when Dobbins got injured and it's just night and day what their efficiency was on the ground. like Harvey was just not getting it done. Uh
11:29so he was rightfully playing behind JK Dobbins last season. Uh we also have quotes like this wasn't like the GM going out and getting uh Dobbins because
11:38he likes him. Shawn Peyton said he was their top priority in free agency and truly like every time you see a quote
11:45from Shawn Payeyton around JK Dobbins, it just seems like he's in love with him. So I fully expect Dobbins to open
11:53the season as the starter again this season. he's not going to have receptions. And so that role is still there. Dobbins is pretty much purely
12:02going to be an early down grinder. And so it does make sense that Dobbins is going a little bit later by ADP because
12:08even if he kind of has that role to start, well, if you're getting, you know, 13 14 carries a game, but
12:12sometimes zero targets or one target, the upside is a little bit capped. You have to score the touchdown to pay off.
12:19It's not like Dobbins is going to score 15 touchdowns this season. So again, it it makes sense kind of how ADPs are laid
12:26out. The problem is it's not only that.
12:28So it's not only having uh JK Dobbins resigned for a lot of money and clearly going to get more early down work. It's
12:35also that they go out in the fourth round. They take the fourth running back off the board and Jonah Coleman and
12:40Shawn Payeyton has specifically called out his pass protection skills. And that is a dagger for R.J. Harvey because Shawn Payton's also specifically called
12:49out how R.J. Harvey was maybe not fully what they expected. Kind of underperformed their expectations.
12:55Specifically, it was difficult for them to fully use him as much in the receiving game as they wanted to cuz he's a good receiving back, but they
13:03didn't fully trust him in pass protection. Maybe he fixes that in the off season. Hopefully, he does, you know, and if he can be trusted in pass
13:11protection, then he can be used more on throw downs. he can have those receptions and we can still have a season where he has, you know, 10
13:17touchdowns, enough receptions, and he pays off this ADP. But why I say you might regret drafting him here is if you've got Dobin taking that early down
13:26work and you add in that third running back and if they end up trusting Jonah Coleman on pass protection, what the
13:33heck is the role for Harvey? If it's not early downs and it's not third downs, it's not two-minute drills, all of a
13:41sudden he becomes much more of just like change of pace. Um, occasionally getting specific plays designed to, and that is just not someone you want to draft in
13:49round seven. Totally fine drafting that in round 10, 11, 12, right? These are kind of, I don't want to say throwaway
13:55rounds, but rounds that already have like a 15 or a 20% chance of producing a startw worthy option. with just like a
14:02top 30 option at running back or receiver. So, you're probably missing in those rounds anyways. The odds are higher in round seven. Like, you should
14:09be targeting not only decent players with decent floors, but high upside players that could produce, you know, uh maybe like top 15 seasons. And it just
14:18seems like given the vibes this off seasonason, given how bad Harvey was as a rookie that it's just not looking great for him in round seven. And I just
14:27want to be clear on this, the counting stats were good. but he scored like 12 touchdowns. He ended up with a decent
14:33amount of receptions. Like if you look at the box scores, you're like, "Oh, and he can expand on that." Like, that's a
14:38great value in round seven.
14:41The problem was they were forced to go with him because of the Dobins injury and then he just underperformed. I mean,
14:48if you had him last season, you know what I'm talking about. Like, he was given opportunities and you'd watch him run and you're like, man, Dobbins is so
14:56much better on the ground. like there's a reason they're giving him this workload. And so that's the problem, right? We see it, they see it, and
15:04they're talking about it, being like, "Hey, he underperformed last season."
15:07Maybe that's why uh there were uh rumors of them in like I think uh ETN Bree Hall, like there was rumors of them
15:14trying to go after them in free agency, ultimately again um or just offseason, ultimately end up going after Dobbins ultimately end up drafting a running
15:22back. That's not a good thing for the incumbent running back. Uh I will close.
15:26I alluded to this before. What's your thoughts on these two? So, I started in round four. We went through a round
15:32four, two, round six, and a round seven running back in this video. I wanted to try and find someone in top three rounds
15:37because, you know, we're targeting running backs early on. And so, I want to have some that maybe we're avoiding, but truly like everyone going in the top
15:45three rounds at running back again, maybe besides Jacobs, if we have this problem here, uh, everyone going in that range is pretty deserving of going in
15:53that range. So, I didn't want to like fully include anyone in here. The two that I had in mind to include were
15:59Saquon Barkley and Kairen. So, I want to give my thoughts on those two and then just kind of like what do you guys
16:05think? Let me know in the comment section below. Um, we'll start off with Squan. So, Squan I was basically listing because he was 14th overall. Obviously,
16:14that's high opportunity cost. You're going to round one two turn. Uh, sometimes you have someone like CD Lamb or Jefferson fall to that range. Uh if
16:21they don't, you still have guys like um Chase Brown, uh Ken Walker goes in that range, Marin Hampton. So there's very
16:29good running back still on the board. So again, very high opportunity cost going to top 15 pick. Um I hesitate in that
16:38range uh just because like I don't know what losing AJ Brown does to the offense.
16:43It's interesting because it's like from a team dynamic, maybe getting him off the sideline and his like just constant pouting on the sideline is going to be a
16:52positive for like just the overall impact to the team's morale maybe. Um, but morale doesn't score fantasy points and doesn't win football games. It
17:00doesn't get yardage on the field. AJ Brown is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and he still was last season.
17:06What he can open up for an offense is incredible. And so the fact that they were struggling with AJ Brown means
17:14Devonte Smith is going to get fed the football and he's going to do great in fantasy. But what if the offense just is
17:20really just not what we're expecting the Eagles offense to be? Even adding Mai Lemon Sters, they're rookies, right?
17:27Like especially early in the season, they're not necessarily going to be huge impacts to the team. And so there's just an chance here that AJ Brown losing him
17:37makes this offense worse than expected.
17:40And then you add on the playoff schedule. Like if if you [laughter] look at any other playoff schedule and then you look at the Eagles, you're like,
17:47"Why does Roger Goodell hate my fantasy team?" Right? They play the Seahawks, the Texans, and the 49ers in the fantasy playoffs. That's brutal. Especially the
17:56first two. we're not gonna have a good projection on uh Saquon Barkley when he plays Seattle and Houston. Like they're just going to absolutely shut him down.
18:04And so that's going to be really tough.
18:06Um and I don't know. I just I'm a little bit worried another year older. Didn't look good last season. Looked fine, but
18:14didn't look like, you know, uh he had looked in prior seasons. And if you lose a Brown in this offense, what if teams
18:20are much more able to sell out? Cuz remember, the reason he was so upset was because Jaylen Herz was just not it,
18:25right? What if losing AJ Brown makes it so that Jaylen Herz is like completely exposed this season? The teams completely sell out stopping the run.
18:34They force Herz to throw it and he doesn't have AJ Brown and so he just underperforms greatly and they're losing a lot more games than they should. He's
18:41underperforming all season. He's in the fantasy playoffs and he loses a bunch of eggs. So I think that's a possibility and at the round one two turn, I don't
18:47want that to be a possibility. Then with Kairen, um this one is basically just Cororum and I think this is more we have
18:54to just see come camp. So, if you look at his production in recent seasons, he's outperformed to this ADP. I mean,
19:00running back two, uh, that was in a year where he was getting like 100% of the snaps. That's not going to happen this
19:05season, unless Cororum like tears an ACL. So, kind of throw that one out. But then running back 12, running back 11,
19:12that would be great. That would be a good outcome to take him in round three where he's going. So, from that
19:16perspective, um, getting a nice little discount. But if we look um after their week eight buy last season, starting that point on. So week nine and on, uh
19:26they really ramped up the usage for Blake Corman, he produced really well.
19:29He jumped up to 11 touches per game. He was great on that volume, 5.3 yards per carry. He scored five times. And so the
19:36offense looked really good. Um it was a way to keep Kairen healthy both that season and long term. Of course, they
19:45want, you know, to keep their running backs as healthy as possible. And so again, makes sense if you have another running back that's producing really
19:51well that you'd continue to give them uh 11 opportunities per game. What did that do to Kairen? It didn't touch uh impact
19:57the touches that much. He dropped one touch per game, but he dropped from a 75% snap share to 64. And obviously,
20:04like if we thought this season he'd be at like a 60 64% snap share, that's a lot different than 75% even if you're
20:11only looking at one touch per game. just being off the field 40% of the time.
20:15That is going to impact you in fantasy.
20:18Again, like I said to start the video, that's not the end of the world if you're scoring touchdowns. And so, if
20:22this Rams offense continues to be amazing, their defense is going to be awesome. So, they're going to be winning games. They're going to be ahead. That's
20:29great for the running backs. And if they're turning teams over, getting more uh short fields on offense. This is all great for running backs. And so, I still
20:35think he's probably just going to end up as a perfectly fine pick in round three.
20:39I'm just a little bit concerned that like we're relying a little too much on receptions because the difference between Kairen and Cororum is five
20:48carries and like one target per game.
20:50That's not that great when you're talking about a round three cost versus round nine. So that's just a concern that they maybe push the split more
20:58towards like 6040 55 45. Like what if the split really starts to get a lot closer? Maybe he underperforms this ADP
21:07and you don't have targets to fall back on. We know without a shadow of a doubt this team is going to be bottom five in
21:12running back targets this season. They were last last season. 11% target share for all of the running backs combined.
21:1764 total targets among all Rams running backs last season. So you are not going to get receptions for Kairen. That especially hurts in full PPR, but it's
21:26still a problem in half PPR. But if he plays 70% of the snaps, if the team is really good, he gets all these
21:33touchdowns, it's not really going to matter that much. So I would just say let's watch August. Let's watch what happens in August, happens in camp. What
21:41are they talking about? What is the team saying? What are Beat reporters saying?
21:44Do we think this is 7030 or do we think this is 5545? Because I think there's a huge difference between those two if
21:51you're not getting the targets because all of a sudden you've got around three Kairen Williams getting those Dobbins numbers, the 13 carries and like maybe a
22:00target every week. and now you're like, "Oh, no." That is just a really low floor in the weeks you don't score. So,
22:09um, again, not a bad pick. I I just I think you got to take like like ETN, I would take over him. Javant Williams,
22:15I'd take over him. Also, both on great offenses, but I'm not concerned about the backups behind them. In a way, I a
22:21little bit am. So, maybe that's the larger takeaway. I probably won't end up drafting him because he could have drafted other players that were better.
22:28So, uh, let me know your thoughts, especially on Saquon and Kum, but your thoughts on all the running backs in this video. And remember, you can mock
22:35draft on my website this season for free. Thefantasyfootadvice.com.
22:39Also, if you are new here, click subscribe on YouTube or Spotify. But that's it for this one. Thank you all for watching and I'll catch you all on
22:47the next
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