0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here
0:01back with another video. Back with the
0:02week 10 underdog picks video. Truly
0:06crazy that we're already in week 10,
0:07already more than halfway through the
0:09season. Uh, I like the picks in this
0:11one, so I'm feeling pretty good about
0:12this week. We'll start off with this
0:14Jacksonville and Titans game. Feel like
0:16you had to have predicted that this one
0:18was coming in this video. We very much
0:20like attacking the Titans defense.
0:22Parker Washington higher than 59 and a
0:24half receiving yards. Jacobe Meyers
0:26higher than 39 12 receiving yards.
0:29Trevor Lawrence higher than 239 and a
0:32half receiving yards and then we'll see
0:34on the Titan side as I'll get to. Kind
0:36of depends on the health status of
0:38Carnell Tate. I love this spot for
0:41Carnell Tate. But can he play? I think
0:43it was a DMP on Thursday. We will see on
0:46Friday. Uh he's going to need at least a
0:48limited practice on Friday. But
0:50basically uh as I'll go over um if he's
0:53out just just basically wait to take
0:55this one. If he's out, uh, then go with
0:57Alec Ironmore. Uh, and then if he's
0:59playing, use Carnell Tate because
1:00they're not going to play him unless
1:01he's good to go. So, and EL is at like
1:0421 and a half and, uh, Carninal Tate's
1:06at 53 and a half. Titans number three
1:10matchup for wide receiver targets over
1:13expectation. Number one matchup for
1:16catch percentage over expectation. Maybe
1:19the Jaguars get up by a lot. You know,
1:21they win this game by three, four
1:24touchdowns. You have all runs in the
1:26second half, but remember what it means
1:28when someone is third in targets over
1:31expectation. It means the volume is
1:33there. It's not like the Titans have had
1:36an incredible offense all season and now
1:38they're injured. So, teams beat them by
1:40a lot. All season their offense has been
1:42very mediocre and teams can beat them.
1:45And yet still, even though they lose all
1:47these games because they're so bad
1:49against wide receivers, uh third and
1:51targets over expectation. So, we should
1:53still expect to see heavy volume flow to
1:56the wide receivers this week. And we
1:58should also expect to see very high-end
2:01efficiency. There's also a chance that
2:03the game plays out like the Bengals game
2:05where everyone thought the Bengals were
2:07going to destroy the Titans, but the
2:09Titans just got things going. They were
2:11efficient through the air. Even not
2:13having um Carnell Tate in that game.
2:16They played well on offense. They kept
2:19that game really close. ultimately they
2:20end up losing the game, but they kept it
2:22close enough where you had absolutely
2:24monstrous performances from the wide
2:26receivers on the Bengals. And so, um,
2:30it's just a really good spot. The only
2:32quarterbacks to not throw for at least
2:34260 yards against the Titans are Tyler
2:37Huntley, Jameus Winston, Gino Smith, and
2:40Lamar Jackson. Uh, those four
2:42quarterbacks, though, they weren't bad.
2:44They still completed 75% of their
2:46passes. And so you're either going to
2:48have unbelievable efficiency on low
2:52volume or you're going to have, you
2:53know, higher volume and still have high
2:55end efficiency. Uh but, you know, 3 350
2:59passing yards on higher volume or you're
3:01going to get very highend efficiency on
3:03lower volume. But again, to wide
3:05receivers specifically, we should still
3:06expect to see good volume. Um, and
3:09again, people are worried because, you
3:12know, Titans can't keep pace, but
3:13they've had some pretty solid games
3:15against decent teams in recent weeks.
3:18Um, it's just it's just such a good spot
3:20though for the wide receivers. I mean,
3:22fourth highest EPA per drop back
3:23allowed, third highest passing success
3:25rate. They're not terrible against the
3:26ground game, and I suppose that would be
3:28the one worry, but it's not like the
3:30Jacksonville running backs have just
3:31been absolutely dominating teams on the
3:34ground. They've been solid, but for the
3:35most part, the passing attack is what's
3:37been successful in Jacksonville. Again,
3:39I want Tate as the bring back because um
3:42you can't run on the Jaguars. Um slot
3:45wide receivers also have somewhat of a
3:47difficult time against them, but outside
3:48wide receivers actually do have a
3:50positive matchup against Jacksonville.
3:52Uh and so if you're going to have I
3:54mean, you want a bring back on the other
3:55side to kind of keep this game going. Uh
3:57and so I like Tate as our top outside
3:59wide receiver. uh if he's playing and
4:01again he's such an important piece of
4:03this offense not only right now in
4:05developing Cam War but long term that
4:06they are not going to throw him out
4:08there unless he's fully good to go. So
4:10if he is playing you can trust him and I
4:12would take higher than 53 and a half
4:13receiving yards. Uh but then if he does
4:15not play just throw Ellen there he'll be
4:17their new outside wide receiver and he's
4:19only at 21 and a half receiving yards.
4:20He should go higher than that. Next up
4:23Tank Dell higher than 33 and a half
4:26receiving yards. Uh, the Browns play man
4:29coverage and single high coverage at by
4:32far the highest rates in the league.
4:34Usually teams are not first in two
4:37different categories and they're not
4:39first by a mile. But truly, like no
4:41one's even close to the Browns in man or
4:44single high. They are first by so much.
4:46And so you want the piece on the other
4:48side that is successful in those against
4:50the coverages. Uh, not only is Tanktail
4:53destroying unlimited sample size this
4:55season, you really can't work with the
4:57sample size this year, it's pretty much
4:59only last week with a couple routes. I
5:00think he ran like four routes two weeks
5:02ago and then it was jumped up to like 22
5:04last week. So, you can't really look at
5:06this season, but historically throughout
5:08his entire career, he is far more
5:11successful versus man and vershigh. Uh,
5:14sees a 19% boost in yards per route run
5:16versus man in his career. 28% boost in
5:19yards per route run versus single high
5:21when compared to two high. Um he also
5:24again like I said the routes really
5:26jumped up last week. So I I didn't think
5:28it looked this good. So not only does it
5:29look good, I didn't think that the
5:30routes would go from four all the way up
5:33to 22. And then after you know the
5:35coaching staff is like, "Yep, he looks
5:37good. We're loving you know how he's
5:39looking after these games. Uh we are
5:41just really excited to continue ramping
5:44him up." So even though they have all
5:46these wide receivers, he's going to
5:47continue playing more and more because
5:49he's a very important part of this
5:50offense and he is a great deep threat
5:52for them and this is a phenomenal
5:54matchup for him. I just I really didn't
5:57think that Tanktell would look this good
5:59until 2027. I figured he'd be back at
6:01some point, but like I don't know. I
6:03didn't think in week two, you know, and
6:05honestly he looked fine in the four
6:07routes in his first game, but in week
6:09two back from this injury, um obviously
6:11had a long time to recover, but he looks
6:14very, very good out there. Uh and so,
6:16you know, if the route's going to trend
6:17up, um if the snaps are, you know,
6:20already pretty solid, the matchup is
6:22great. I really like higher than 33 and
6:25a half receiving yards for him. On the
6:27other side, uh, you've got the Browns,
6:29of course. Uh, Conception is their man
6:31beater and Denzel Boston is their zone
6:33beater. Conception 3.31 yards per run
6:38versus man, but only 1.22 yards per run
6:41versus zone coverage. Uh, Boston
6:43reverse, 0.36 yards per run versus man.
6:46That was actually one of the concerns we
6:48had uh for Boston coming out was like,
6:50can he separate verse man coverage? So
6:52far, no. But, uh, 2.17 yards per run
6:56versus zone coverage. Texans, well, they
6:59play zone 80% of the time, the top 10
7:02rate in the league. Uh, they also allow
7:04the second most targets versus
7:06expectation to wide receivers, the
7:08fourth highest yards per reception, and
7:10the seventh lowest catch rate to wide
7:12receivers. So, a ton of zone. And they
7:15also force heavy volume to wide
7:17receivers. That volume comes deeper
7:18downfield with a lower catch rate, but a
7:20higher yards perception. that just
7:22benefits Denzel Boston. Both of these uh
7:25more than Conception. Conception is
7:28gonna be great against manheavy
7:29defenses, gonna be great against
7:31defenses that force most shallow area
7:33targets because he's more of that catch
7:34and run type player, whereas Boston's
7:36going to get going deep downfield. Uh so
7:39for this specific spot, it leans towards
7:41Denzel Boston. So I like higher than 44
7:44and a half receiving yards for him as
7:46the bring back on the other side.
7:48Another player I like is Chris Olive.
7:51higher than 74 a.5 receiving yards. Uh
7:54the Panthers play zone coverage at the
7:56third highest rate in the league and
7:59single high at the fifth highest rate in
8:01the league. Olve better verse zone in
8:03man this year, but I'll say in his
8:05career he's been better verse man. So
8:06we'll say that the zone there not a big
8:09deal. The big deal is single high.
8:12Whenever you can get Chris Olive vers
8:14single high coverages he is phenomenal.
8:16He's been destroying single high not
8:19only this year but throughout his career
8:21and the game is also played in a dome
8:22that helps everyone obviously in this
8:24these passing attacks in this spot but
8:26uh Chris Olavi in his career 25% more
8:29receiving yards per game in a dome. You
8:31could honestly take that stat for most
8:33players. I mean again domes just really
8:35really benefit passing environments and
8:37there are certain wide receivers that
8:39are just a little bit better when you
8:40put them in a dome. uh I think someone
8:43like Jameson Williams as well, but Chris
8:44Olive, you get a dome against single
8:47high. I mean, he's probably going to hit
8:48deep for multiple big plays. He's
8:50already gone higher than this projection
8:51in five of eight games this season. He
8:54smashed the Panthers in both of their
8:56matchups last year. So, great great spot
8:59for him. On the other side, looking for
9:01a bring back. Uh the Saints also play
9:03single high at the second highest rate
9:05in the league. And it's been Jaylen
9:07Coker has who's been the one hitting
9:09against those sorts of looks. hasn't
9:11been great recently, but we can kind of
9:13use that to our advantage, right? Um,
9:15not only the public, but you know,
9:17platforms are also not going to have a
9:19super high projection on players when
9:22they have three consecutive weeks of
9:24much lower target shares than we're
9:25expecting and thus much lower production
9:28than we normally would expect. And so,
9:30his uh receiving projection on underdog
9:32is only 44 and a half receiving yards.
9:34Um, but he's still out there running
9:36center routes. I'd be much more
9:37concerned if there was a reason we could
9:41look to and say, "Oh, the routes are
9:43half of what they used to be." He
9:45literally led the team in routes last
9:47week. He's very clearly going to be on
9:49the field a ton running routes. I think
9:52it's randomness. Like, I really think
9:53it's more randomness than anything that,
9:55you know, he's had very, very low in
9:57target shares. I think singledigit
9:59target shares three consecutive weeks.
10:00Don't quote me on that one, but they've
10:02been very low. and they've been much
10:03lower than they were to start the year
10:05when healthy last year. But like we have
10:07a pretty large sample size of Jaylen
10:09Coker being a really good target earner,
10:12being a quality wide receiver. I don't
10:14think these three games, these last
10:16three weeks are any sort of indication
10:18of what we should expect long term. I do
10:20think he's a player that should
10:21consistently have like a 55, 57 12
10:25receiving yards projection in a neutral
10:27matchup, but this again is not a neutral
10:29matchup. This game overall is very very
10:32strong. Um the Panthers rank first in
10:34combined snaps and the Saints rank
10:36fourth in uh situation neutral pace over
10:40expectations. So Panthers games are
10:42already resulting in a ton of plays. And
10:44we all know so the Saints aren't playing
10:45as fast as they did last season, but we
10:47all know the Saints want to play fast.
10:49Uh they want to get off a lot of plays.
10:51And again, fourth fastest situation
10:53neutral pace. They're not first by
10:54Mileik last year, but like fourth
10:56fastest is still uh very very good. And
10:58so it's very likely unless one of these
11:02teams gets way ahead and just starts
11:04running at every play, which is just not
11:06going to happen in a divisional game
11:08like this where both sides are honestly
11:10fairly evenly matched. Um, you should
11:14expect a relatively high-scoring
11:16game with a lot of plays run and a close
11:19matchup. That's what we should expect in
11:21this one. And so I think there's just
11:23going to be plenty of volume. I think if
11:24Coker goes back to the target share
11:26we're used to seeing, he's going to blow
11:28past 44 and a half for the receiving
11:30yards. Um, also the Saints defense isn't
11:32good. I mean, neither defense is good on
11:33the other side, but like if we're going
11:35to continue talking about Coker here,
11:36like that defense isn't that great. No
11:39pressure. And that's the biggest thing
11:40is like Bryce Young,
11:43I think, is a good quarterback, right?
11:45He's obviously not a star, but I think
11:46he's a quality quarterback. He just like
11:48gets flustered sometimes like when you
11:50have pressure in his face and you you
11:51kind of force him to make a super quick
11:52decision. He can have those games where
11:54you're like, "Oh, yep. Price Young fell
11:56apart again this week." But it's like if
11:58he has time, especially this season with
12:00the scheme being a lot better. Um when
12:03he's got time to sit in the pocket and
12:05really like, you know, progress through
12:07his reads, he's actually been pretty
12:09solid. And so he should have plenty of
12:11time. Again, there's no pressure
12:12generated on the Saints side. Uh, and
12:14then a top 10 matchup for EPA per drop
12:17back. Uh, passing success rate, like
12:19teams are very successful throwing the
12:21ball against New Orleans Saints this
12:23season. So, anyway you slice it, lot of
12:26plays in a dome, highend efficiency, bad
12:30defenses on both sides. It's just a
12:32really good spot for Olive and Jaylen
12:35Coker to get going. Uh, I'm not saying
12:37that other players can't do anything,
12:39right? Sure, Tyson could step up a
12:41little bit more this week. You could
12:43always have a big T game, but Olive and
12:45Coker are just set up really, really
12:47nicely. I like both of them. In terms of
12:49who I would make the latter of the week
12:50this week, I do think I want to make it
12:52Jaylen Coker. Uh just sentiments way
12:54down. I like attacking spots where
12:56that's the case. Of course, you could
12:57try and take someone like Olive, right?
12:59But the projection is already 74 and a
13:02half and people like Olave. And so if we
13:04really want to put a ladder on a lav, we
13:06got to go up to like 120 130 receiving
13:09yards and you start to get to a very
13:11very good day. I think he can do it, but
13:13it's a little more realistic for Coker
13:16to hit on a ladder because he only
13:18really needs one or two big plays to
13:20really send that higher. Obviously,
13:22he'll need more than one or two
13:23receptions, but if he has just like a
13:25normal day efficiency wise and then all
13:27of a sudden hits for a 3540 yard play,
13:30well, now we can really get going on on
13:32that ladder because we're we're starting
13:33off at 44 and a half receiving yards.
13:36Um, I'm gonna go up to 100, but I would
13:38say most of my volume is going to be to
13:40like 79 and a half. I feel like that's a
13:42really good uh spot to put the ladder up
13:45to. And I would only place like a very
13:46small amount on like 89 and a half, 99
13:49and a half. I also did check because the
13:51other player I was considering for the
13:53ladder of the week is Tank Dell because
13:55again 33 and a half on a player facing a
13:58ton of single high looks. Um, great
14:01matchup for him and a big play
14:03threat. Well, it doesn't
14:05take that much. One big play can push
14:06you past. I mean, they had this like 60
14:08yard reception last week that can just
14:10blow past 33 and a half very easily. So,
14:12if you do Jaylen Coker higher than 79
14:14and a half receiving yards and Tank Dell
14:17also higher than 69 a half receiving
14:20yards, that alone is 30x when you apply
14:23a 20% boost. All of you should have that
14:25in your lobby. They have like the the
14:27boost builder this week. So, every time
14:29you do a 30 or 20% boost, if you do
14:30another one, 30, 40, it'll like keep
14:32working up. Uh, but once you get to like
14:3440, I think you need three picks. So,
14:35you'll have either a 20 or 30% boost to
14:38use for this one, and it's at least 30x.
14:42I don't know. Like, it's obviously not a
14:43lock to hit. It's very much an underdog
14:45to actually hit, but uh, it hits more
14:48than 3.3% of the time. So, I'm going to
14:50place a small amount on that one as
14:52well. I'm probably not going to do both
14:54of them hitting a 100red yards. That's a
14:57little bit unrealistic to actually
14:58think, but if you want to go nuts and
15:01place like $1 on that, uh, you can do
15:03it. I didn't even check what it is. I
15:06would assume though it's it's probably
15:07well over 50x. So, uh, those are my
15:09favorite underdog picks this weekend. If
15:12you have not yet signed up for underdog,
15:14you can do so with promo code FFA. And
15:16they're going to let you pick like your
15:18signup reward basically, which I think
15:20is a pretty good idea. So, either you
15:22can do a deposit match, which is just
15:23like standard across the industry, uh,
15:25play $10 and get $50 in bonus funds. Not
15:28a bad option there as well. Uh, or five
15:31free rips packs. Um, really it it comes
15:33down to you like what you prefer. I
15:35would probably do the deposit match
15:37personally. Uh, but I have ripped a few
15:39packs. It's a pretty fun experience. And
15:40so, if you feel like doing that one
15:42instead, uh, then go for it. So, uh,
15:45that'll do it for this one. Thank you
15:46all for watching. Please leave a like if
15:48you are still here. Good luck to
15:49everyone this weekend, not only for your
15:51underdog picks, but also for your
15:52reddraft leagues as well in Dynasty of
15:54course, too. Uh, I will be back on
15:56Tuesday for the week 11, crazy to say,
15:59week 11 waiverwire show. But that'll do
16:02it for this one. And thank you all for
16:04watching.
