0:00What's up party people? It is, I don't know what time it is when you're listening to this, but it's five o'clock somewhere.
0:08So the happy hour bar is open with another special edition of Fantasy Football Happy Hour.
0:13This time the Draft Day Manifesto, the 2026 Draft Day Manifesto.
0:17As I've done with 100 facts and I'll do with, you know, Love Hate and some of the other articles that I
0:25write, I'm going to do kind of a books on tape version of it because I know a lot of people out
0:32there sometimes prefer to hear and they don't have to read it.
0:36time to read it, but you know, they're in the car, they're in a, you know, they're listening on, you know, on
0:44a commute to work while they're walking the dog, what have you.
0:48They'd rather listen to it. And so here you go.
0:51I'm going to read it as I wrote it.
0:55Of course, it is available on FantasyLife.com and you know, I would be, look, I'm a company man.
1:01So before we get to the Draft Day Manifesto, I'm just going to ask you real quick.
1:07Number one is go check out FantasyLife.com and our Fantasy Life Plus tools.
1:11You can use the promo code Barry and get 10% off.
1:1537 different tools that will help you win whatever it is you play.
1:19DFS, prediction markets, betting, fantasy football, season long, whatever format you play.
1:23If you play in a guillotine league, we've got tools specifically that'll tell you how much to bid on Jamar Chase in
1:31week seven with only 10 teams left because no one else knows what to do with that.
1:37And then a reminder that you got to try guillotineleagues.com.
1:40Just try it. Join a public league. Just try it.
1:44I promise you if you play it once, you'll realize what I do.
1:48It is the greatest way to play fantasy football.
1:51I loved it so much. I literally bought the company.
1:55So guillotineleagues.com. You got to go check it out.
1:58And when you go to guillotineleagues.com, you can use what I'm about to read to help you crush your draft like a grape.
2:06Without further ado, here we go. It is Matthew Berry's 2026 Draft Day Manifesto.
2:10The seven habits of highly effective drafters. The first fantasy football rankings you glance at.
2:16The first mock draft. The first text from your commissioner, who's in this year?
2:20The first time half the internet overreacts to a third string running back making one cut in August, convincing them he's the next league winner.
2:29The first time you say, I'm not going to overthink it this year.
2:33Spoiler alert, you absolutely are. The first, this guy is in the best shape of his life report.
2:40The first message from the league chat that starts with, hey, quick rules question.
2:44And ends with a three day long argument over text.
2:48The first time you let yourself think, hey, maybe this is my year.
2:52Every season starts somewhere. And for me, this one starts here.
2:56With a first for me, my first league was 1984.
3:00My first published column, 1999. My first time on national TV, 2005.
3:04When you've been playing and discussing fantasy football as long as I have, firsts are, well, they're hard to come by.
3:11But this year, this year, I'll be damned if I don't have a first.
3:16For the first time in 27 years, I'm writing the Draft Day Manifesto on a website I helped build.
3:22That sentence means more to me than I can explain.
3:26But I'm going to try. Over the past 27 years, this manifesto has lived in different places, different websites, different logos, different editors, and different bosses.
3:35But the mission has never changed. Help people win their fantasy leagues.
3:39Make them laugh a little. Hopefully make them think a little.
3:42And remind everyone that as ridiculous as intense this game can get, it's supposed to be fun.
3:48In a weird way, it feels less like I moved the manifesto and more like I finally brought it home.
3:55Because fantasy life isn't just another place I work.
3:58It's the place we've been building for years. The place where we can obsess over fantasy football the same way you do.
4:06The place where we argue about running back 38 like it actually matters.
4:10Because let's be honest, sometimes it does. Where analysis can be smart but not take itself too seriously.
4:16Where statistics and storytelling could live in the same sentence.
4:20Where winning mattered, but having fun mattered just a little bit more.
4:24If we could build that place, then the manifesto and all of my writing and rankings belong there.
4:30Not because the website matters, but because you do.
4:33This article has never been about where it was published.
4:37It's always been about the people reading it. Or in your case, listening to it.
4:42Some of you have been with me since the dial-up internet days and the OG Talented Mr.
4:48Odo site. Some of you found me at ESPN.
4:51Some came along for the ride at NBC. And some of you are reading your very first draft day manifesto today.
4:58Or hearing it. Welcome. One and all. I apologize in advance because this is going to take a while.
5:04So take off your shoes, put your feet up, and get comfortable.
5:09Can I get you a drink? This article has always been about how to think.
5:14How to attack a draft. How to avoid the mistakes everyone else in your league makes every single year.
5:20Despite swearing, they'll never make them again. How to prepare.
5:24Because preparation is the only thing you actually control.
5:27Listen, you can't control injuries. You can't control touchdowns getting vultured.
5:31You can't control your commissioner deciding that Thursday at 6, 17 p.m.
5:35is the perfect time to announce, Hey guys, I think we should switch to two tight ends this year.
5:41You can't control the fantasy gods deciding that your opponent's defense should score four touchdowns in week 15 because apparently you've done something terrible in a previous life.
5:51Here's what you can control. Showing up more prepared than everyone else.
5:55And that's what we are here to do. Both this article and everything else we do at FantasyLife.com.
6:01Make sure you are more prepared for everything that will undoubtedly come your way during the wackiness of the season that we are about to start.
6:10And specifically this article on draft day. For the regulars, you'll find plenty that's familiar.
6:15My thoughts on roster construction, draft strategy, positional value, finding league winners, avoiding landmines, and generally trying to outsmart your friends without
6:23becoming the person everyone secretly hopes finishes last. But there are plenty of new wrinkles this year as well.
6:29Updated research and data. New ways to approach roster building.
6:33And at least one new joke. For the record, that wasn't it.
6:37And of course, a shameless plug. Which is usually for whatever company is paying me.
6:42But this year, for the company I own. So honestly, it's even more shameless.
6:47But at least nobody can accuse me of not putting my money where my mouth is.
6:52Here's the good news. If you're hearing this, most of what you actually need is free.
6:58First, you can sync your league for free. Seriously, it's free.
7:02If you want to take it even further, Fantasy Life Plus gives you customized rankings, draft champion, mock drafts, premium tools.
7:09Everything we've built to give you as many edges as possible.
7:13When you subscribe to Fantasy Life Plus, my rankings become your rankings.
7:17When you sync your league at Fantasy Life, you'll get customized advice for your team, including from me.
7:23That's right. Your league is unique, so we believe your advice should be too.
7:28Crazy idea, right? So you heard me correctly. Rankings, projections, and more automatically adjust to your scoring settings instead of making you pretend that your league is standard.
7:37When it's really a 14-team, 5-point passing touchdown, 3-flex point per first down.
7:42My college roommate made these rules in 2014, and now nobody remembers why.
7:46Kind of monstrosity. If you decide to subscribe, please use the promo code DDM for 10% off your first year.
7:53And hey, if you want me in your box every morning, wait a minute, that came out wrong.
7:59All right, if you want my free newsletter with everything you need for the day in fantasy football as a quick five-minute
8:07read, subscribe to the free Fantasy Life newsletter that'll show up in your inbox instead of relying on some social media algorithm
8:14that thinks you'd rather watch a raccoon stealing cat food than read fantasy football analysis.
8:19Honestly, the easiest way to make sure you never miss anything important, and did I mention it's free, is to sign up for the FantasyLife.com newsletter.
8:28See? I told you it was shameless. Okay. Plug time is over.
8:32But while I'm 100% sure you could predict that when I started writing from my own side, I was going to go
8:40whole hog on promotion, that's probably the only thing you can predict.
8:44A year ago, we had no idea that Matthew Stafford, entering his age 37 season and drafted outside the top 20 in
8:52most fantasy leagues, would lead the NFL in touchdown passes.
8:55That Sam Darnold, who went undrafted in plenty of one-quarterback leagues, would throw for over 4,000 yards and finish with more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes.
9:04That Trevor Lawrence, who many fantasy managers wouldn't even roster in August, would finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
9:11That Trey McBride would outscore every tight end by nearly 90 points in PPR scoring from week six through the end of the fantasy season.
9:19And that the second-highest scoring tight end over that stretch would be Kyle Pitts.
9:24Or that Lamar Jackson would not even finish as a top-15 fantasy quarterback.
9:28It's why I love this time of year, because for one brief beautiful moment, nobody's sleeper is disappointed.
9:35Nobody's first-round pick has pulled a hamstring. Nobody has rage-dropped the guy who becomes a league winner six weeks later.
9:41Every draft strategy still works. Every roster still looks good.
9:45Every manager still thinks this is finally the year.
9:48Hope has a perfect record. But whether this is your first manifesto or your 27th, thank you.
9:54Thank you for reading. Thank you for arguing with me.
9:57Thank you for trusting me. Thank you for finding me here.
10:01And thank you for making this silly little game part of your lives every fall.
10:06Because I still can't believe I get to be a part of it too, right?
10:11Hope has a perfect record. The challenge is, hope isn't a strategy.
10:15Preparation is. So welcome, friends old and new. And tell your friends, you're about to read the 21st edition of the often-imitated,
10:23never-duplicated, heart-stopping, knowledge-dropping, fantasy football, ADP rocking, sleeper-finding, value-mining, draft-day-defining, mock-draft-shaking, strategy-making, earth-quaking, handcuff-taking, spring-steen-stealing, justifying, death-defying, legendary draft-day manifesto.
10:30Here, right freaking here, baby, are the seven habits of highly effective drafters.
10:34Habit one, they spend a ton of time preparing.
10:37Draft day mirrors many aspects of life, but perhaps none more than this.
10:42What you put into it is what you get out of it.
10:46And in drafts, just as in life, it's helpful to know exactly what you are preparing for.
10:52Prepping for a colonoscopy, for example, is significantly different than prepping for a fantasy draft, at least in most leagues.
10:59So that starts with studying the rules and, more importantly, figuring out the best ways to exploit said rules.
11:05What's the scoring? The scoring obviously impacts the type of players you target.
11:10Is it half-point PPR or full PPR? Derrick Henry will be an early-round pick in almost any format, but the gap between
11:17him and elite pass-catching running backs like Chris McCaffrey, B.
11:21John Robinson, and Jameer Gibbs is much smaller in half-point PPR.
11:24It isn't full. Is there premium scoring for tight ends?
11:28Points for first downs? For long punts? Don't laugh.
11:31I played in a punter league once. Oh, and crushed it like a grape.
11:36Thank you very much. By the way, it's still the only championship I've ever won where I spent Sunday afternoon screaming, PIT HIM INSIDE THE TEN!
11:45The point is, every league has quirks. Highly effective managers don't complain about them.
11:50They exploit them. What's your roster size? How do you acquire free agent players in your league?
11:55If it's a free agent budget, you can be a bit riskier on draft day because you will have a shot at
12:03every player if you need to replace someone. But if it's a waiver system, it will be tougher to get the hot
12:10free agents, especially if the rules allow someone to sit on the top pick for multiple weeks.
12:16So you need to focus a little bit more on depth in the draft if you're in a league like that.
12:24Does your league have an IR spot? If so, how many?
12:27Being able to use IR spots allows you to take more chances on talented but injury-prone players or players who are already hurt.
12:35For example, some leagues allow players who have an out designation to be placed in the IR spot, which means that if
12:43you draft Malik Nabors or George Kittle and they're not ready to go by week one, you can place them into your
12:50IR slot and pick up an additional player. How about a spot for suspended players?
12:55Last year, both Rasheed Rice and Jordan Addison began the season serving suspensions.
13:00And if you played in the league with an NA spot, the opportunity cost for drafting those players was much lower because
13:07you could have just stashed them until they returned as opposed to having to tie up a bench spot for multiple weeks.
13:15As we saw with Rice last season and Alvin Kamara in 2024, utilizing that roster flexibility can lead to outsized returns.
13:22Just make sure that if you draft players who may not be available or at full health in the early weeks of
13:30the season, you have a plan to keep your team competitive until they return to your lineup.
13:36One of the biggest edges in fantasy football isn't evaluating talent.
13:39It's understanding roster flexibility. Two managers can draft the same injured player, but only one has built a roster that can actually afford to wait.
13:48All these questions lead to roster construction, which will be a key part of your draft day success.
13:54Reconciling how players are acquired during the season with roster size and any roster restrictions you may have, a limit on the
14:02number of RBs for example, will help you as you start to evaluate players.
14:06Can you fairly easily find solid production at various positions during the year via the waiver wire?
14:12If so, you can roster more flyers. Conversely, in deeper leagues where the free agent pool is scarce, you'll need some solid
14:20middle-of-the-road types to plug in during bye weeks and when injuries hit.
14:24Just remember, you're not just drafting players. You're also having to draft future problems.
14:29Bye weeks, injuries, flex decisions, waiver claims. The best draft often isn't just the one with the most upside.
14:35It's the one that creates the best ability to deal with the inevitable issues later.
14:40Do I have more questions to consider? Good question.
14:44I do. Really? Yes. When do your playoffs start?
14:47How many teams make it? How are week 14 buys going to affect your fantasy playoffs?
14:52Effective drafters also account for what platform they're playing on.
14:56Because wherever you play, the draft is highly influenced by the default rankings in the draft room.
15:01People panic during a draft and then they often just take the highest ranked player available.
15:07Having a set of rankings you trust, shameless plug, you can find all of Fantasy Life's updated rankings on fantasylife.com.
15:14And if you believe in them and then you start comparing the rankings you believe in to the default ranks of whatever
15:21site you're going to play on, will help you identify which players are going too early, which players are going too low,
15:29what market inefficiencies there are, and how you can exploit them.
15:33Average draft position isn't telling you where a player should be drafted.
15:37It's telling you where everyone else is making mistakes.
15:40One of the biggest edges in fantasy football isn't finding information nobody else has.
15:45It's understanding where your room is likely to make predictable mistakes.
15:48Because if you're looking for one of the biggest edges in fantasy football, it's hiding in plain sight.
15:55As luck would have it, the fantasylife.com ADP tool that shows up to the minute ADP, including recent risers and fallers, across
16:02every possible site you might play on, can be of help here.
16:06For example, look at these current ADP differences. And just so you know, this was written like two weeks ago, so these
16:14ADP differences might be different, but you'll understand the point.
16:17The first number I'll read is ESPN ADP. The second number I'll read is Yahoo ADP.
16:23Justin Herbert, 117-64. Caleb Williams, 96-72. Chase Brown, 27-16.
16:26DeAndre Swift, 70-52. Chuba Hubbard, 92-65. Tee Higgins, 52-35.
16:29Carnell Tate, 63-75. Luther Burden, 76-57. Michael Pittman, 87-121.
16:32Christian Watson, 96-73. Tucker Craft, 108 on ESPN. 59 on Yahoo.
16:36Dalton Kincaid, 146-92. Now yes, this ADP is affected by several factors and will change quickly as more drafts get completed.
16:43Most ESPNs also use full PPR scoring and their standard 10-team leagues, whereas Yahoo is primarily half PPR and their default is 12-team leagues.
16:51But believe me, that difference doesn't come close to explaining the nearly 40-pick gap in Michael Pittman's ADP.
16:57And these type of discrepancies exist across all positions and player archetypes.
17:02Just think about how differently you would build your team if you could draft Justin Herbert in the 10th round instead of the 6th.
17:10Or how much stronger your roster would look if you could add a potential wide receiver that's going to break out such
17:17as Luther Burden or Carnell Tate at a nearly 20-pick discount.
17:21Use this information to your advantage and ensure you're not reaching for players you don't need to be.
17:27Okay, one more related tip. If it's a league where you know the other managers, you can add in notations about the tendencies of other drafters.
17:36You know, this one always reaches for young, buzzy guys.
17:40This one stoppiles quarterbacks. This one beat me in the league championship last year by 0.4 points.
17:45So during the draft, say you're going to use the bathroom but actually go outside and slash his tires.
17:52That one might be specific just to me. Finally, my last piece of advice here in terms of preparation is mock draft as much as possible.
18:01Especially once you know what spot you're picking from.
18:04You have some time before an appointment, mock draft.
18:07Stuck in traffic, mock draft. Maybe not coming out quickly no matter how hard you push, mock draft.
18:13What happens if you go with Brock Bowers or Trey McBride in the second round?
18:18What about a 0 RB or a hero RB approach?
18:22What if you go heavy at running back and start your draft with three to four running backs?
18:28What if you take Josh Allen early? What happens if the stack you want gets sniped one pick before?
18:35The more options you play with to see how your team turns out, the more prepared you will be when the real draft happens.
18:43You'll be much more comfortable adjusting on the fly.
18:46Preparation doesn't eliminate surprises. It eliminates panic. Habit number two.
18:49They identify the relative depth at each position. Having an opinion on every potential player is great.
18:55But you also need to understand every player's value relative to every other player.
19:00And the depth of that position as it relates to your roster needs.
19:04Quarterback is deep so you can wait to take one, right?
19:08Well, not if you play in a 14-team super flex league.
19:12Then they start going quickly. Like me when prepping for a colonoscopy.
19:16That's right. Two colonoscopy jokes. Will there be a third?
19:20Only time will tell. Oh, look. Just understand this, okay?
19:23Knowing which players you like is player evaluation. Knowing when you need to draft them and what you'll be giving up when you do is draft strategy.
19:32Important distinction. A position isn't deep or shallow in a vacuum.
19:36It's deep or shallow relative to how many players at that position your league is required to start.
19:42That is especially important because people repeat statements like, Ah, quarterback's deep, without counting for whether a league starts 10 quarterbacks, 14 quarterbacks, or 28 quarterbacks.
19:51When you draft, you're not just collecting as many good players as possible.
19:56You're constructing a roster with finite resources. You only have so many spots.
20:00And you need to understand how easy or hard it will be to replace players during the season.
20:06The question isn't just, eh, how much do I like this player?
20:10It's, what happens if I pass on this position right now?
20:14If you can get 90% of the production three rounds later, waiting makes sense.
20:19But if the position falls off a cliff before your next pick, then it doesn't.
20:24Drafting is the art of knowing where you can afford to wait.
20:28And where waiting will kill you. So with that in mind, here's a quick overview of how I see the positions this year.
20:36Quarterback. In the past couple of seasons, the elite tier of QBs typically included three to four names.
20:42This year, proud Fantasy Life investor Josh Allen stands alone as a one-man tier.
20:47He typically goes at least one round earlier than Lamar Jackson and over two rounds earlier than any other quarterback.
20:54And I get why. His combination of upside and consistency is unmatched at the position.
20:59Still, at his current price, I expect to have very little Josh Allen this year.
21:04Simply put, I think the opportunity cost at that point of the draft is higher than the gap between Allen and the next-tier quarterbacks.
21:12Lamar Jackson, Drake May, Jaden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts have all shown to have comparable single-season upside, and they're often going multiple rounds after Josh Allen.
21:21Ultimately, the difference between QB1 and QB5 can matter.
21:24But if the cost of buying that difference is passing on an every-week running back or wide receiver, while comparable quarterbacks remain
21:32available five rounds later, the roster-level advantage can disappear.
21:35So if I can grab a quarterback from that group in round five or six, I love the value there.
21:42But if those names start flying off the board earlier, no need to panic because the position is so deep this season
21:50that the QB6-12 range is filled with players that I'm still very excited to draft.
21:55In fact, I really don't see a huge gap between Caleb Williams, if I've ranked as my QB7, and Bo Nix, if I've had QB15.
22:03That's basically a tier for me. So if I miss out on that second tier after Allen, I'm more than comfortable waiting
22:11for whichever name from that low-end QB1 group falls to me.
22:15In some drafts, it might be Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy, in others, it's Trevor Lawrence or Patrick Mahomes.
22:21You know, that scrappy sleeper Patrick Mahomes. For me, QB7 through QB15 is basically one large tier.
22:27Once I enter that range, I'm less concerned with being first to choose and more interested in being last to draft a quarterback in that tier.
22:36By the way, I'm also fully back in on Kyler Murray.
22:40Never wrong, damn it, just early. He's currently going outside the top 15 at the position on both ESPN and Yahoo.
22:47And if you plan deeper or super flex formats, Tyler Shuck and Jordan Love are two of my favorite sleepers.
22:54Finally, I do want some exposure to Malik Willis and his massive rushing ceiling.
22:59But I have enough concerns about the Dolphins offense that I would prefer to do it in leagues where I'm not locked
23:06in to starting him every single week. In one QB leagues, I'll pay for Allen only when the room gives me a discount.
23:14Otherwise, I'm attacking the depth. In super flex, I'm attacking the scarcity.
23:18Running back. Highlighted by Jameer Gibbs and Bijon Robinson going as the first two players off the board in almost every draft,
23:26the top of the position is extremely strong. I'm expecting bounce-back seasons from Saquon Barkley, Ashton Gentry, and Amare in Hampton.
23:33I love, absolutely love the landing spot for Kenneth Walker.
23:36Chase Brown has quietly been a reliable RB1 since the middle of the 2024 season.
23:41Chris McCaffrey and Derrick Henry carry some obvious age risk, but the ceiling on both is still high enough that I don't
23:49want to completely fade either of them as well.
23:52As in seasons past, I'm comfortable utilizing a hero or anchor RB strategy with any of the top 12 to 14 running
24:00backs in my rankings, and I really liked builds where I'm able to grab two players from that group within my first three picks.
24:08The purpose of an anchor RB isn't simply to draft one good running back.
24:13It's to buy enough stability at a fragile position that you can spend the middle rounds attacking value elsewhere.
24:19The RB2 range is where I get a little bit more selective, right?
24:24There's a lot of projectable touches for the RBs in this range, but the drop-off in talent makes most of them highly dependent on their situations for value.
24:33And by the way, the tier is quite large.
24:36I don't mind the drop-off from Travis Etienne to DeAndre Swift or David Montgomery if it gets me an elite tight end or another wide receiver.
24:45In the RB3 range, there's a trio of young running backs in Bashal Tootin, Travion Henderson, and Jadarian Price, who are ideal
24:53RB3 targets in shallower leagues or formats that only start two wide receivers.
24:57In deeper leagues, or when utilizing a zero or hero RB build, Jalen Warren and Ramondre Stevenson, who might actually be better
25:05than Travion Henderson in fantasy this year, offer a solid floor along with added contingent value.
25:10Once you get into the RB4 range, the most attractive picks are players who have both standalone value and the potential for an outsized role due to injury.
25:20Blake Corum, Kalman Ungai, etc. League scoring also plays a factor in this range of the draft.
25:26For example, Kenneth Gainwell and Rashad White are four more appealing targets in full PPR leagues, while Chris Rodriguez, Jordan Mason, and
25:33Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt, aka Bill, all gain value in more touchdown-heavy formats.
25:37And as you get into the final rounds, high-value insurance options like Brian Robinson, Tank Bigsby, Ray Davis, are still the best way to fill out your bench.
25:47Finally, as an overall approach to the position, you want to target volume and high-value touches, which are receptions and red zone opportunities.
25:55And remember that running back talent matters, but it's far less correlated to fantasy production than at any other position.
26:01It really is about opportunity for many running backs.
26:05As you evaluate running backs, I want you to remember that not all projected touches are equal.
26:10A back can project for 16 touches because his team genuinely wants him on the field in every situation, or because we're
26:18assuming an extremely fragile depth chart holds together. Those are different bets.
26:22Carries between the 20s keep a back busy. Targets and goal line carries make him valuable.
26:28Volume matters, but fantasy-friendly volume matters more. Six targets can be worth more than 12 carries, and two carries from the three-yard
26:35line can be worth more than an entire drive's worth of work between the 20s.
26:40Running back talent matters, but it's far less correlated to fantasy production than in any other position.
26:46At wide receiver, talent earns opportunity. At running back, sometimes opportunity is simply the last healthy guy standing.
26:52All right. Wide receiver. I currently have six wide receivers in my first round and Drake London inside my top 15.
27:00Yet the depth at the top of the position feels a little underwhelming considering how excited we were about Malik Nabors, Brian
27:07Thomas, and Ladd McConkie heading into last season. I absolutely love the fit for A.J.
27:12Brown in New England, so he's a target in the second.
27:16And Nico Collins, George Picken, and Rasheed Rice are the best options at the 2-3 turn once the top 12 running backs are off the board.
27:25Devontae Smith, who I literally just announced as my 2026 fantasy football ride or die, is one of my favorite picks in round three.
27:33Although now that I've announced him as my ride or die, his ADP is going to rise, and he'll probably go in the late second.
27:42But once Smith, Chris Olave, and Zay Flowers are gone, I view the next tier of wide receivers as, well, relatively flat.
27:49For example, I can easily see Mike Evans having a comparable season to Tee Higgins, even though I have them ranked 12
27:57spots apart in my wide receiver ranks. McConkie, Jalen Waddell, Luther Burden are some of my favorite picks from that wide receiver
28:04two tier, although I've noticed where they go within that range differs significantly from draft to draft.
28:10The wide receiver three range has many big play receivers with upside, but most lack the weekly consistency to be reliable starters.
28:18Christian Watson is my top target from that group, although I also want to make sure I get some exposure to rookie Carnell Tate.
28:26And if he drops far enough, Jordan Tyson. The injury's concerning, but I still think he'll have a strong second half of the year.
28:34In the wide receiver 40 to 50 range, there are still plenty of receivers with decent target projection.
28:40So here I tend to focus on players who have strong peripherals and could be looking at increased roles.
28:47A Josh Downs, if you will, a Dayton Reed.
28:50In standard size leagues, I'm generally always the guy that wants to have at least five wide receivers from the top 45
28:58or so in my rankings, which then allows me the flexibility to use my final picks on some high upside dart throws.
29:05Unless I'm playing in a very deep league, I always prefer my wide receiver six or wide receiver seven to be a
29:13high variance option like Casey Concepcion or Rashid Shahid, as opposed to a high floor option like Romeo Dobbs or Khalil Shakir.
29:20Because the job of your wide receiver six isn't to score nine points while sitting on your bench.
29:26It's to become a player you'd be excited to start.
29:30Give me the player who might become a weekly difference maker over the player whose best case scenario is making a difficult bye week decision slightly less unpleasant.
29:39Floor matters for your lineup, but ceiling matters for your bench.
29:43Tight end. The tight end position is undergoing a glow up.
29:47From tight end university to random tight end 11s getting married at Madison Square Garden, the position is definitely on the rise.
29:55At this rate, by 2028, every tight end will have a podcast, a clothing line, and a destination golf tournament sponsored by an electrolyte company.
30:03The influx of young athletic tight ends into the league in recent seasons has made the top of the position a lot more fun for fantasy.
30:12In fact, six of the top seven tight ends in my rankings right now are 25 or younger.
30:18Brock Bowers and Trey McBride remain the top two options, and I'm comfortable taking either late in the second round in the right build.
30:26Given the opportunity cost at that point in the draft, I much prefer to take Colston Loveland in round four or Tyler
30:34Warren in round four or five, assuming we don't get any more serious injury news with Tyler Warren.
30:40The mid-range to low end tight in one bucket always has intriguing options, but historically, this tier also carries a lot of risk.
30:48I will say I'm very high on Tucker Craft this year, so I love targeting him in this range, especially when you
30:56can often get him as the seventh or eighth tight end off the board.
31:00Especially with tight end, you have to consider not just the position scarcity, but also how it relates to your roster.
31:08A tight end who scores 15 points per game may be more valuable than a receiver who scores 17 if the replacement
31:15tight end scores eight and the replacement receiver scores 13.
31:19Many will see Kyle Pitts and Harold Fannin as the safer options here, but I don't believe either reaches the same production they had last year.
31:28Once you start to get outside the top ten, I really want to focus on upside rather than floor.
31:34Ask yourself, which players going in this range have the highest ceiling if things break their way?
31:40For example, if Dalton Kincaid runs 75% of the routes this year instead of 50%, I believe he has the skills to
31:47put up comparable numbers to Loveland or Warren. Or what if Isaiah Likely is the Giants' top pass-catching option until Malik Nabors is fully healthy?
31:56What if he's the number two behind Nabors? Can't you see him catching like 70-plus passes in that scenario?
32:03Now compare him to players like Jake Ferguson or Mark Andrews who are both far more likely to finish in that tight
32:10end 8-14 range from a probability standpoint, but you don't have access to the same high-end ceiling.
32:16When drafting tight ends late, focus on who can be a real difference maker at the position because in the majority of
32:24standard-sized leagues, players like Jawan Johnson, Hunter Henry, Dalton Schultz will always be available in the waiver wire.
32:30And for those who play in formats where this isn't the case, Chika Kankwo, Gunnar Helm, Greg Dulcich, and Terrence Ferguson are
32:37some of my favorite deep sleepers at tight end this year.
32:41The point of all this isn't that you must draft a specific position in a specific round.
32:47It's that every position has moments in the draft where the value changes.
32:51Sometimes there's a cliff. Sometimes there's a plateau. Sometimes there's a player you like, but five players you like almost as much will be available later.
33:00Highly effective drafters recognize those moments and build around them.
33:04Habit number three. They abide by the one big secret of fantasy football.
33:08I don't know the secret of life. I suspect it has something to do with having a full head of hair, but
33:16that ship has sailed for your old boy here.
33:19I do know, however, the secret of fantasy football, and it's this.
33:23At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about managing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.
33:31That's it. It's that simple. From the time you read this article or hear it until the end of your season, every
33:38single thing you need to do leads back to that very simple but very rarely followed approach.
33:44Every draft pick, waiver move, potential trade, start, sit, decision, and so on.
33:49Everything. I can't predict the future. Neither can you.
33:52Neither can anyone else. But you don't have to predict the future.
33:56You just have to make better bets on it than anyone else.
34:00And you do that by managing risk, giving yourself the best odds to succeed every single week, understanding the range of possible
34:08outcomes, making the best call you can in the moment, and then letting the chips fall where they may.
34:14Josh Allen has finished as a top two quarterback in points per game each of the last six seasons.
34:21In each of those seasons, he's had at least 25 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns.
34:26So, what's most likely to happen this year? David Montgomery has ranked top 10 in goal-to-go rushing attempts in six of his seven career seasons.
34:35Last year, Woody Marks converted only one of his 12 goal-to-go rush attempts.
34:39So what's most likely to happen this season? Chris Rodriguez has six receptions in 35 career games.
34:45He's failed to see a target in 28 of those games.
34:49What's most likely to happen this season? Amon Ross St.
34:52Brown has four straight years with at least a 27% target share.
34:56He's caught over 100 passes in each of those seasons.
35:00What's most likely to happen this year? Alec Pierce has led the NFL in yards per reception and averaged up the target
35:07in each of the past two seasons. During that time, 62% of his targets have come on passes of at least 15 air yards.
35:16So what's most likely to happen in this season?
35:19Now, most likely to happen doesn't mean it will happen.
35:22It just means it's much more likely to happen than not.
35:26And that's all we can ask for. If you consistently play the odds, you'll win a lot more than you won't.
35:33And when you are evaluating players before and during the draft, when you are building your team, that's what you need to do.
35:41Your job isn't to be right every time. Your job is to make decisions that will be right more often than they're wrong.
35:49Which is why we talk so much about preparation.
35:52Preparation doesn't eliminate surprises. It gives you a better process when they arrive.
35:56Just remember, once again, at a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about managing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.
36:06What's most likely to happen? Habit four, they use rankings flexibly and in context.
36:10Whether they are your own, someone else's, an average of multiple people, or even just the default ones in the draft room,
36:18when you draft, you are going to have a set of rankings.
36:22They're certainly helpful, but they should be used only as a guideline and more so in the early parts of the draft.
36:30Rankings are a map, not turn-by-turn directions. I say this as someone who spends an inordinate amount of time on his own rankings.
36:38I have two teenage girls who spend a lot of time in the bathroom getting ready, but I still spend more time on my rankings.
36:46I tuck my rankings in at night. I take them on family vacations.
36:51I'm very proud of my rankings. I love them.
36:54I hug them. And yet, I know that no rankings are going to nail into the season value, especially when you consider weekly variants.
37:02Rankings tell you how someone values players' in a vacuum.
37:05Drafts do not take place in a vacuum. And once you get your first five players, it really becomes about roster construction
37:13based on what positions you need to fill, how much risk you've already taken, the draft is playing out, taking into account all the factors we've already discussed.
37:23All right, put that another way, rankings tell you which groceries are best, but roster construction is what tells you whether you're making lasagna or pancakes.
37:31At some point, blindly taking the highest ranked ingredient is going to give you a very strange dinner.
37:38I swear, this made sense to me at 5 a.m.
37:41when I wrote it. The point is, take Jameson Williams and Tedderall McMillan as the example here.
37:47I currently have McMillan ranked as my wide receiver 21 and Williams as my wide receiver 25.
37:53They're four spots apart. In my overall rankings, I have them only seven spots apart.
37:58Over at fantasylife.com, my friend Dwayne McFarlane has McMillan projected for 184 points and Williams for 171 in half PPR scoring.
38:05Over a full season, that difference comes out to less than a point per game.
38:10If you looked at only the projections, you might reasonably conclude that these are essentially interchangeable players, but they aren't.
38:17Last season, Jameson Williams finished as wide receiver 18 in points per game, 12.9.
38:22He was just slightly ahead of Tedderall McMillan who was wide receiver 21 at 12.4 points per game, right?
38:28Wide receiver 18 to wide receiver 21, 12.9 to 12.4.
38:32Okay. Very close, right? But take a closer look at how their 2025 seasons played out.
38:37Tedderall McMillan was Carolina's clear number one wide receiver.
38:40He averaged a 25% target share. He scored at least six half PPR points in 14 of his 17 games.
38:47Yet while he showed a consistently high floor, the ceiling was limited.
38:51He only had three games with over 15 fantasy points.
38:55He finished as a top 10 wide receiver for the week only once all season.
39:00Meanwhile, Jameson Williams had similar production over the course of a full season, but he got there in a very different way.
39:08His role in the offense, far less consistent. He failed to reach a 20% target share in nearly 60% of his games.
39:15He also had more than twice as many games with under six points as McMillan.
39:20On the flip side, his weekly ceiling was much higher.
39:24Jameson Williams finished as a top 10 wide receiver five different times and he had three, count them, three 20-point games.
39:31So which wide receiver ended up being the better pick?
39:34Well, I guess it depends, right? In a shallower league, the weak winning upside of Williams feels more valuable.
39:41But in those formats, he's also less likely to be treated as a must-star player.
39:46Meanwhile, McMillan's floor provided a great stabilizer in deeper leagues or in a guillotine league.
39:51I use McMillan and Williams as the examples here because the numbers lined up nicely for two relatively high and wide receivers.
39:59But honestly, you can apply the same framework of using rankings within the context of team building to players going in all
40:06areas of the draft and across multiple positions. A player's points work best if your roster is built to maximize them.
40:13I'm going to say that again. A player's points work best if your roster is built to maximize them.
40:20Let's look at David Montgomery and Bashal Tootin as another comparison point.
40:24Both players are in a similar ADP range, but they're very different running backs.
40:29Montgomery is a bet on roll. Not very explosive.
40:32He's not going to contribute much as a pass catcher, but he's going to see 15 or more touches a game and
40:40be the primary red zone and goal line option on what should be at least a competent Texans offense.
40:46It's highly unlikely Montgomery delivers a top 10 season, but he's a pretty safe bet as a low-end RB2 who can get
40:54you 10 to 14 points a week. Tootin, on the other hand, is a bet on talent and opportunity.
41:00He's an athletic back with great speed and good pass catching skills, and his main competition for touches is currently banged up
41:08Chris Rodriguez, who's totaled 974 scrimmage yards and six receptions across three total NFL seasons.
41:13If Tootin can emerge as the top option in this backfield and see 12 or more rushes a game along with a
41:20double-digit target share, he could deliver a season like what we saw from Bucky Irving as a rookie in 2024.
41:27Now, is that the likeliest outcome? Absolutely not. It's totally plausible that Rodriguez maintains an early down roll all season and is
41:35also the primary goal line option, while LaKean Allen continues to operate as the third down back.
41:41In that scenario, Tootin is probably limited to eight to ten touches a game and finishes outside the top 30 at the position.
41:49So unless you have a firm stance on which player you think will be better, it comes down to roster fit.
41:56If you've already drafted one or two high-end running backs, taking a gamble on Tootin as your RB3 and hoping he can
42:03turn into a reliable flex and potential league winner is an appealing option.
42:08Conversely, if you're very thin at running back and need to find projectable points, Montgomery is by far the safer choice.
42:15Overall, targeting high-variance players such as Beyshal Tootin is a good strategy in almost any league so long as you have proper roster balance.
42:23Habit five, they focus on winning weeks. It's very simple, but so many people forget that fantasy football is a weekly game.
42:31Let's go back to the Jameson Williams example one more time.
42:35The high-scoring weeks were great, but consider that these were his weekly finishes over the first five games of the season.
42:42Wide receiver 61, wide receiver 10, wide receiver 55, wide receiver 62, wide receiver 89.
42:47He finished as wide receiver 13 in week six, but how many teams actually started him that week considering that he had
42:54failed to finish as a top 50 wide receiver in four of his previous five games?
43:00And if you missed that week six performance and were eager to start Williams for his next game, guess what?
43:07He scored zero points in week seven. So could you feel great starting him in his next game after that when he finished his wide receiver 14?
43:16That's the crucial part. It's not enough to have players who score a lot.
43:21It's important to know when to start them. A spike week only helps you if the player is actually in your lineup when it happens.
43:29Starting your C.D. Lambs, or eights as I call them, I call them eights.
43:34Of the world is easy. In theory, your first five picks should all be CD Lambs, players you will start every week barring injury or a bye.
43:44But what about the rest of your lineup? Once I get to the middle of my drafts, I'm no longer seeking players
43:51who are consistent high floor performers because they're all gone.
43:55At that point in drafts, I want players who could wind up as an elite option at a position in any given week.
44:02I used to call this the never James White rule.
44:06James White was a solid fantasy football player during his peak.
44:10From 2016 to 2019, White was the running back 25 in points per game.
44:14But for those playing in standard size leagues, James White never had as much fantasy value as that ranking would lead you to believe.
44:23The reason being, he very rarely had 20-point games that could win you a week.
44:28It was just a consistent stream of 10- to 12-point games that added up over time.
44:33James White hasn't played in the NFL since 2021.
44:36He does now, but I like to think he runs a construction company somehow and that they specialize in building homes with very low ceilings.
44:45Now compare that to the long list of insurance running backs that I've used to make this point in previous seasons.
44:52Zach Charbonnet, Alexander Madison, Khalil Herbert, Tyler Algier, etc.
44:55Stashing those players on your bench for most of the season may be frustrating, but the potential payoff is absolutely worth it.
45:03Brian Robinson in Atlanta behind Bijan. Blake Corum in LA behind Kyron Williams.
45:07Examples. This is why I say rankings are just a loose guideline.
45:11Season-long rankings cannot fully measure how useful a player will be to your lineup in specific weeks.
45:17To give a player you draft in later rounds example from the season, think about somebody like Isaiah Pacheco, right?
45:24If Jameer Gibbs gets hurt or Brian Robinson I mentioned behind Brajean Robinson, if their starters get hurt, suddenly they're going to
45:32have a lot of value in high-scoring offenses with a good meaty role.
45:36I think they'll be unlikely to have any standalone fantasy value, but in a world where something were to happen to Gibbs
45:44or Bijan, those guys would have a lot of value.
45:47As you are filling out your bench, you need to view it in the context of the quality of players available on the waiver wire.
45:56Now don't get wild, drafting a high number of boom or bust players makes sense only if you know you can easily
46:03find viable production on the waiver wire during bye weeks or in case of injury.
46:08The more shallow the league and the stronger the waiver wire, the less valuable replaceable bench production becomes and the more aggressive you can chase upside.
46:17Conversely, the deeper the league, the more value there is in simply rostering someone who receives dependable touches or routes.
46:24In other words, the waiver wire is effectively part of your bench.
46:28The more production that's available there, the less of it you need to store on draft day.
46:34As my mom always said to me growing up, don't use a valuable bench spot to store something you can find for free on Tuesday.
46:43One positive is that it won't cost much draft day capital for these upside types.
46:48They generally will be ranked much lower in pre-draft season-long rankings than they will be ranked in the weeks when you know you'll be able to use them.
46:57That's why I don't want to reach for players like Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt, who's confined to an early down role and is competing
47:05with multiple other running backs for touches. When guys like, you know, Brian Robinson, Tank Bigsby, Pacheco, Ray Davis all come cheaper
47:13despite being one injury away from becoming reliable weekly starters.
47:16Bill will have big weeks, but it's going to be tough to predict a win.
47:21Whereas we know if anything were to happen to Bijan Robinson, Brian Robinson would become a must start.
47:27The NFC football doesn't award trophies for the most points sitting on your bench.
47:32It doesn't award them for having the most accurate pre-season rankings.
47:36And it definitely doesn't award them because your round nine pick finished RB 31.
47:41You need players that you know you can confidently start.
47:44Players whose role can grow. Players who can turn an ordinary lineup into the best lineup in your league for one week.
47:52Again, it's not just about having, you know, guys that go off.
47:56It's about knowing when to start those players. You don't have to win the season all at once.
48:02You just have to keep winning the week that's in front of you.
48:06Habit six. They are adaptable and trust themselves above all others.
48:10Obviously, you should be watching, reading, and listening to as much as possible before you draft.
48:16And that means all summer. Hey, there is no off-season.
48:19I mean, technically there is an off-season. We just have chosen to ignore it.
48:24Just like our families. This will help you have an opinion on every player.
48:29You don't need to memorize every stat or break down every play.
48:33You just have to have a general sense of whether you are pro or con the player and what general value you give him.
48:41Because, as Mike Tyson likes to say, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
48:47Now, hopefully no one is getting punched in the mouth at your fantasy draft.
48:52Ah, except for Bob. Bob's a pain in the ass and deserves it.
48:57Am I right? The point is this. Something unexpected will happen.
49:00There can be extreme runs and there can be drafters who have wildly different values than you.
49:06So players you didn't expect to be available are there for the taking.
49:11And there may be someone drafting in front of you using your exact rankings they printed off from FantasyLife.com and laughing as
49:18they draft the player you want while commenting, ha ha ha, do you love that pick, Barry?
49:24That, um, that last one may be specific only to me.
49:28But that's why Bob got punched in the mouth in my draft last year.
49:33Listen, highly effective drafters are the ones who don't enter with a specific hard and fast strategy.
49:38By doing the work and being prepared, by mock drafting like it's your job, by being flexible, you'll be able to adapt
49:46on the fly and you won't let your draft be dictated by anything or anyone but you.
49:52There are two bad forms of being rigid. Being rigid about your strategy, I decided I'm going to your RB so I'm
49:59going to pass on a running back who fell two rounds or being rigid with the ranks.
50:05This player is one spot higher so I must draft him regardless of roster or tiers.
50:11The purpose of the manifesto is for you to prepare for decisions.
50:15It is not to make those decisions before the draft begins.
50:19Don't mock the same opening over and over until you create the team you want.
50:24Practice what happens when the player you want is gone, when a position dries up early and when unexpected value falls into your lap.
50:32Go into every draft knowing what you believe, what you value, and where the positional cliffs are.
50:38Then pay attention. A draft is a conversation. Every pick changes what the room is telling you.
50:44Listen to everyone. Trust yourself. And be willing to change your mind.
50:48Habit 7. They approach the draft as just the first step toward success.
50:52Just because draft day is the most important day, that doesn't mean it's the only important day.
50:58You don't have to win the league during your draft.
51:02In fact, it's unlikely that you will. If your fantasy football season is a building under construction, then the draft is the foundation.
51:09If there's a run on quarterbacks in a one-quarterback league, instead of forcing it and reaching early for a guy in the tier below, grab another wide receiver.
51:19Another lower tier quarterback will still be there around later.
51:22So grab the wide receiver and give yourself some surplus so you have something to trade.
51:28So when you play in one of those leagues where people actually trade and don't treat every offer as if you ask for their banking password.
51:37Again, it's about roster construction. This goes with what I was talking about in terms of not sweating rankings or ADP too
51:44much and going for upside because you're likely dropping some of the guys on the way to glory anyway.
51:51Last year, Matthew Stafford, the MVP, Kenneth Gainwell. Wondell Robinson, Alec Pierce, Harold Fannin Jr.
51:56and Jawan Johnson were all waiver wire pickups. Jackson Dart, another in-season ad, was the QB6 in points per game after taking over the starter.
52:05It happens every year. That does not mean the late-round picks don't matter.
52:09It just means that you should not be emotionally attached to getting those picks right because there will be significant roster turnover over the course of a season.
52:19And remember, sometimes a winning waiver pickup is the one you only need for a couple of weeks.
52:25Rico Dowdle saw minimal usage over the first month of the season.
52:29But then when Chuba Hubbard missed week five and six with a calf injury, Dowdle delivered back-to-back 30-point games.
52:36Now, Dowdle parlayed those performances into a larger role moving forward and remained a viable fantasy option.
52:41But even if you only used him during the stretch that Hubbard was out, he was a literal week winner.
52:48Or how about Michael Wilson? Thrust into a larger role following an injury to Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson went on to average
52:5626 fantasy points per game and nearly 120 receiving yards when Harrison was out of the lineup.
53:02This is after entering 2025 with only one career game with 16 or more fantasy points.
53:07Wilson ended up reaching that number in six of his final eight games.
53:12Wilson didn't suddenly become a different human being when Harrison got hurt.
53:16His opportunity changed. And his fantasy value changed with it.
53:19Your fantasy season will be a constant work in progress.
53:23So understand that as you construct your team on draft day, it's not just about acquiring players in the draft and later
53:30via free agency and trade, but ultimately how you use them.
53:34In-season roster decision making will be crucial for you to get that championship, but that's a story for the seven habits of highly effective in-season managers.
53:43If you've listened this far, thank you. You are hardcore, and one of us.
53:48Much respect. Now, go do a mock draft in our fantasylife.com free fantasy football mock draft simulator or watch one of our
53:55YouTube videos or read some articles because right now, this moment in time, this one glorious moment, your team is still healthy.
54:03Your team hasn't tweaked a hamstring. Your league hasn't erupted into a four-day argument over whether someone's trade should be vetoed.
54:10The sun shines brightly. Every team is undefeated. Every draft is an A.
54:14Every championship is possible. Hope has a perfect record.
54:18It's going to be home. See you next time.
54:21See you next time.
