Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Tanner McKee is in his second game as a starter for the Eagles against the Cowboys; with Devontae Smith and Dontavian Wicks unavailable, McKee will need to rely on slot receivers like Makai Lemon in a game where the Eagles are expected to throw due to their struggling defense.

Matthew Berry targets Makai Lemon over 40.5 receiving yards against the Cowboys; the line opened at 37.5 and has moved up due to market action. Lemon beat this number two weeks prior against the Jaguars, and the Cowboys allow the fourth most yards to the slot and the highest completion percentage to slot receivers. Lemon will avoid Joey Porter on the outside, and with no Devontae Smith or Dontavian Wicks available, Tanner McKee in his second game as starter should rely on Lemon in the slot.

Matthew Berry likes George Pickens in the Eagles-Cowboys matchup; the Cowboys allow the fourth most yards to the slot and the highest completion percentage to slot receivers, and Pickens should benefit from the Eagles being forced to throw due to their struggling defense and the Cowboys' strong offensive performance.

George Pickens is a play for over 63.5 receiving yards against the Eagles' depleted secondary, which is giving up the fourth-most passing yards to wide receivers; he wasn't as involved last week in a loss, but the Steelers should regroup and get their playmakers the ball early, especially against a secondary that's banged up.

Malik Willis has quietly posted back-to-back games with over 18 fantasy points and is running a lot lately, making him a viable quarterback waiver wire option.

Brenton Strange was dropped in many leagues with the Jaguars on a bye in Week 7 but is a viable low-end TE1 who needs to be rostered in far more leagues, making him a waiver wire target.

Antonio Williams will have a bigger role in the Washington Commanders passing game with Terry McLaurin now out for the season; the Commanders can't run the ball and will have to throw more, creating opportunity for Williams.

Omar Cooper Jr. is still available in slightly over 50% of leagues despite posting back-to-back 100-yard games, making him Matthew Berry's number two waiver wire pick of the week.

Jonah Coleman led Denver in snaps and touches in Week 7 and is expected to see his role continue to grow; Matthew Berry had been calling for him all year and believes he's the most explosive running back in the Broncos backfield, making him his top waiver wire pick despite being available in most leagues.

Jalen Coker had only 1 catch for 9 yards with a 14% target share in Week 7 and didn't play in the fourth quarter due to a blowout; however, he had 25% target share in the three games prior, so this was an outlier game. The Panthers' offense was a mess with four turnovers and five sacks, making it a bad day at the office for the entire passing game.

Isaiah Likely remains the WR2 in the Ravens offense and should bounce back; Matthew Berry notes that if someone in a league is panicking after this game and the bye week, Likely could be traded for below market value. The Giants' upcoming schedule (Philadelphia, Washington, Jacksonville) features three teams that struggle against tight ends, making it a favorable matchup window.

Isaiah Likely had only 2 receptions for 12 yards and 3.2 fantasy points with a 15% target share (his lowest of the season and first time below 23%); with J.J. McCarthy's first start, he's had a 16% target share in 1.25 games versus 30% with Jameis Winston. His role remains strong at 93% route participation, but J.J. wasn't finding him, possibly due to coverage or McCarthy's limited playbook.

Nico Collins is probably closer to WR2 than WR1 given recent struggles, though the Texans' schedule after their bye is favorable (Chargers, Cleveland, Indy at home); Deontay Banks' elite coverage (23% force incompletion rate, second in pass breakups) took him out of the game, but Collins remains the focal point and best receiver on the team with Stroud throwing 40-50 times per game.

Nico Collins had season lows in route rate (63%) and route participation (80%) with only 5 targets and 2 receptions for 6 yards; he's been below 18% target share in back-to-back games since Marvin Harrison's return and under 11 fantasy points in all of the last three weeks. Teams are taking him away and letting other guys beat them.

Quinshawn Judkins had a strong Week 7 return from ankle injury with 5.6 yards per carry and three runs of 10+ yards, but his workload is complicated by Dylan Sampson's return; Judkins played only 3% more snaps than Sampson, had under 30% route participation, played 52% of snaps, and had a 3% target share as Sampson took the third-down work as expected.

Baker Mayfield's return as a veteran quarterback has significantly helped Bucky Irving's run game by getting the Buccaneers into the right looks and managing internal communication; this cerebral quarterback play is an extension of the coaching staff that Jalen Hurts' legs couldn't provide in the same way.

Bucky Irving is a complete workhorse with 24+ opportunities over the past three games and 11 touches with a touchdown in Week 7; he's had three straight games with 21+ touches and 18 red zone touches over the last three games. Despite not being drafted as a bell cow at season start, he's now functioning as one, though people don't discuss his workload as much as Jameer Gibbs or Bichon Robinson.

Zay Flowers is WR5 on a points-per-game basis this season with a floor of at least 12.7 fantasy points in every game; he's been quarterback-proof, averaging over 18 fantasy points per game even with Tyler Huntley under center when Lamar Jackson was out. Matthew Berry notes he's playing above his wide receiver salary and expects production to improve further when Lamar returns.

Zay Flowers is having a breakout year despite being a known entity, drafted as a mid-tier WR2 but now performing as a wide receiver one. He leads with a 31% target share (fourth best among all WRs) and 53% of his receiving yards have come after the catch, showcasing Declan Doyle's offensive scheme exploiting his strengths. He's not just a gadget guy around the line of scrimmage—his average depth of target is 14.9 yards, with 38% of targets on passes 15+ air yards downfield. Remarkably, he's had this production with only two red zone targets all season. He's averaging 8 yards after the catch per reception and has maintained a floor of at least 12.7 fantasy points in every game, ranking as WR5 on a points-per-game basis. With Tyler Huntley under center (Lamar out), he's averaging over 18 fantasy points per game, proving quarterback-proof. With Lamar's return, his ceiling will only increase.

Tee Higgins is on pace for 1,600 receiving yards and has had 20+ fantasy points in three of the past four games. He's wide receiver 10 on a points-per-game basis despite being drafted as a mid-tier WR2 and often overlooked in draft season. Matthew Berry argues he's a borderline wide receiver one, not a boring mid-tier WR2. The Bengals are using him effectively with Jamar Chase as a decoy—on one touchdown, they used a double post to put the safety in a bind, and with Jamar drawing coverage, Burrow threw a beautiful ball to Tee in the back of the end zone. Tee is quarterback-friendly, aggressive, and makes Burrow look better. With favorable upcoming matchups (Tennessee, Atlanta, Steelers, Mike Manders), if he can be acquired for less than a WR1 price, Berry is in.

Joe Burrow has had at least three touchdown passes in three of the past four games and leads all quarterbacks with a 71% completion rate. He's posted his third straight game with 22+ fantasy points, doing it on the road at Baltimore. Matthew Berry highlights the bigger story is the Bengals' schedule: home games against Tennessee, Atlanta, and the Steelers, followed by Mike Manders. The schedule is laying out nicely for Burrow's continued elite production.

Mason Taylor had a good day with 40% red zone target share over the past two weeks and two end zone targets in week seven, but Matthew Berry cautions not to get too crazy about him. The bigger issue is that Mason Taylor's presence and productivity is limiting Kenyon Sadiq's breakout potential. In every single game where both have played together, Mason Taylor has had the higher route rate, and he ran nine more routes than Sadiq in week seven. While Frank Reich likes his tight ends and they clearly like Taylor from last year, Berry views him as a deeper league flyer rather than a must-start, noting the Jets offense has limited fantasy-relevant player slots.

Omar Cooper posted his second straight 100-yard game and is a legit starter. Despite concerns about Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor returning, Cooper maintained a 70% route rate and 53% of slot snaps, running more routes than Mitchell. Matthew Berry notes 'you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube'—Cooper has established himself as a priority in the Saints offense. He's being used creatively, moving inside and outside, and scored a touchdown out of the backfield using the same pylon route concept as JMO. If still available in your league, he needs to be picked up immediately.

Ollie Gordon has scored in four straight games and entered top-20 must-start territory. Since week three (after Devon Achane went down), he's averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game and is RB11 on a points-per-game basis, averaging almost 19 touches per game. He's received 70% of red zone and goal line attempts since week three. In week seven against the Jets, he posted season highs in snap rate (25%) and route participation (103 routes), and he's doing it against stacked boxes—he faced the second-most 8-man boxes in the NFL (11 carries) and still made guys miss. Matthew Berry calls him a legitimate top-20 must-start and potentially the best waiver wire pickup of the season.

Kenneth Walker had a tough matchup against Seattle's elite defense but remains an RB1 despite his first game this season with fewer than 20 fantasy points and first game without a red zone or goal line rush. His 16% target share was his highest since week two, showing increased passing game usage. However, he averaged just 2.6 yards per carry against Seattle compared to 6.3 yards per carry in every other game. Matthew Berry notes if someone in the league panics and offers Walker for anything less than a top-five overall player, he would accept that trade, indicating confidence in his long-term value despite the down week.

Matthew Berry expresses concern about Patrick Mahomes after his second-worst fantasy game of his career (6 points) against Seattle, with back-to-back games now without a touchdown pass. While acknowledging Seattle's elite defense held every QB to under 200 passing yards and dominated the Chiefs' offensive line, Berry also notes the Chiefs have played mostly bad or mediocre teams (Chargers, Dolphins, Raiders, Colts) prior to this game, with no real test except Denver in week one. Without key weapons (no Rice, no Rasheed Rice, no Taequann Thornton) and on the road at Seattle on primetime, the offense had no rhythm. Berry downgrades Mahomes to low-end QB1/high-end QB2, ranking him QB12-14 range (down from his preseason QB14 ranking), with upside only in the right matchup (QB8-10).

Matthew Berry emphasizes Jameson Williams is becoming more reliable within the Lions offense, playing cleaner football after earlier drop issues. He's not only a speed guy but can beat zone coverage like Amon-Ra St. Brown, positioning him for more touchdown opportunities. Berry notes the key strategic insight: 'You either always start Jameson Williams or you never start Jameson Williams'—similar to a blackjack rule—because he has weeks where he disappears and weeks with 5 catches, 91 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Over the past two games, he has 4 end zone targets, and he's now in his third straight game with at least 16+ fantasy points, suggesting the inconsistency may be improving.

Tucker Kraft is starting to look more like his expected self on National Tight Ends Day, with a couple of big moments in the Lions game. This suggests he's trending in the right direction after earlier struggles.

Marshawn Lloyd ran eight fewer routes than Josh Jacobs in Jacobs' return game, indicating Jacobs was being ramped up in his first game back from injury while Lloyd saw reduced usage.

Devin Singletary received three of five targets from the backfield in the Giants game but was not the primary back. He scored an overtime touchdown but was used in limited situations. The Giants appear to be using multiple running backs in their offense rather than committing to a single back.

Tyrone Tracy left the Giants-Texans game with a hamstring injury. Matthew Berry notes this came at a good time for the entire Giants backfield to get healthy during their bye week. Tracy had been running well before the injury, and his departure opened up more opportunities for Cam Saquon Barkley.

Patrick Mahomes had a brutal fantasy day on the road against the Seahawks in Week 7. Matthew Berry questions whether this was merely a bad game and tough matchup or a sign of concern given the Chiefs' tougher upcoming schedule.

Kenneth Walker had a brutal fantasy day on the road against the Seahawks in Week 7. Matthew Berry flags this as a potential concern given the Packers' tougher upcoming schedule, questioning whether it was just a bad game and tough matchup or a sign of deeper issues to worry about going forward.

Jameson Williams posted his second straight multi-touchdown game and third consecutive consistent performance, suggesting a trend rather than coincidence. He's playing cleaner football with fewer drops and is becoming more reliable within the Lions offense. Beyond being a speed guy, he's now beating zone coverage like Amon Ra St. Brown has been doing, which should lead to more touchdowns. However, his previous four games showed a 13% target share and he was under 50 receiving yards in three of those games, indicating inconsistency before this recent uptick.

Josh Jacobs returned from injury and led the Packers backfield with a 54% snap rate, playing nine of 15 third-down snaps and three of five snaps inside the 10. Most encouraging was his 17% target share (third on team) and 43% route rate, running eight more routes than Marshawn Lloyd. He scored on a touchdown reception where he made two guys miss, displaying his old form. Matthew Berry projects him as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 going forward, encouraged by his passing game usage and performance. However, the Packers' offensive line remains a concern (second or third worst in run blocking), and they lost their center to injury in the first drive. Jacobs is usable for the next two weeks (Carolina at home, then New England), with a tough Minnesota matchup before the bye.

Pollard scored 36.5 fantasy points in Week 7 with 25 rushes for 129 yards and three touchdowns, his first game with 14+ fantasy points this season after scoring just one touchdown over his first six games. The breakout was driven by favorable circumstances: no Tajay Spears in the game script, a close game against Cleveland that didn't get out of hand, and a season-high 48% route rate (his highest by a lot) due to Spears' absence on passing downs. Matthew Berry notes 120 of his 129 rushing yards came after contact, showing both offensive line execution and Pollard's vision and cutting ability. However, Berry suggests selling high on Pollard for a top-25-ish player, as the game script won't repeat; upcoming schedule includes Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and Dallas, with only the Cowboys game offering favorable conditions.

Jonah Coleman is returning from injury and Matthew Berry believes he will take over the Broncos running back job from J.K. Dobbins by season's end. Coleman has been a full participant in practice throughout the week and there is a chance he gets activated before Sunday. He is still on IR but not fully rostered in many leagues. Berry has been saying since the preseason that Coleman will be the Broncos running back you'll want by year's end. Coleman needs to be rostered in 100% of leagues.

Mike Washington is playing more snaps than expected for the Falcons, suggesting Ashton Gentry may not be fully healthy. Washington is playing nearly as many snaps as Gentry, indicating a potential shift in the backfield workload.

Kirk Cousins' job security is in question. The Falcons have lost three straight games and are 3-3. If they lose to the Rams, they'll be 3-4, and the leash on Cousins is getting tighter. There is speculation that backup Marcus Mariota could be inserted into the lineup soon, which would impact the passing game volume for receivers like Ashton Gentry.

Matthew Berry is buying Jalen Coker, who has seen four more targets than Ted O'Meillian in the three full games they've played together this season and has scored 24 more fantasy points. Over the past nine games including last season's playoffs, Coker has outscored O'Meillian in seven of nine matchups. The Panthers rank third in pass rate over expected, indicating a high-volume passing game. Adam Thielen, who played for Carolina, said Coker is the best wide receiver on that team. Upcoming schedule includes Buccaneers, Packers, Broncos, and Saints.