Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Matthew Berry notes that the Cleveland Browns drafted Denzel Boston in the second round to help improve their wide receiver production.

Matthew Berry notes that in three years with Todd Monken as his offensive coordinator, Mark Andrews never exceeded 70 targets in a single season.

Matthew Berry notes that Fannin led all tight ends in target rate per route run last year and his 108 targets were the eighth most by a rookie tight end. However, he finished outside the top 15 in average depth of target, yards per target, and yards per reception.

Matthew Berry highlights that Kraft leads all qualified tight ends in yards after catch per target since entering the NFL and ranked second in yards per target last year. Prior to his ACL tear, he was the number one fantasy tight end in points per game over the first eight weeks.

Matthew Berry points out that Pitts' fantasy production was heavily skewed by a single 45.6-point game in week 15, which accounted for 21% of his total points. Excluding that game, he would have finished as the TE15. Additionally, he earned only four end-zone targets, tied for 21st at the position.

Matthew Berry notes that as a rookie, Loveland averaged 1.98 yards per route run, a mark surpassed only by Brock Bowers and Kyle Pitts among rookie tight ends since 2011.

Matthew Berry notes that from week eight through the playoffs, Washington was a top-three wide receiver in yards per route run. When playing with Brian Thomas Jr. and Jacoby Myers active, he averaged 15.4 fantasy points and 85.2 yards per game, with a 24% target share in games where he ran at least 70% of routes. He is currently being drafted outside the top 80, but Berry has him ranked 64th.

Wan'Dale Robinson has earned at least 140 targets in each of the last two seasons and is returning to the same play-caller. He is currently being drafted outside the top 100 picks.

With Michael Pittman traded, Josh Downs is positioned for a larger role; he has been targeted on over 25% of his routes when Pittman is off the field and averages 13.7 fantasy points per game in contests with a 20%+ target share. He is currently going outside the top 100 picks.

DeVonta Smith sees a 29% target share on his routes when A.J. Brown is off the field and averages 17.3 fantasy points per game when he earns at least a 25% target share. Matthew Berry has him ranked a round ahead of consensus.

A.J. Brown has led the league in touchdown receptions on passes of 15+ air yards over the last four years. He is currently being drafted outside the first two rounds on ESPN and Yahoo.

David Montgomery has ranked top-10 in goal-to-go rush attempts in six of his seven seasons and has produced at least 1,100 yards from scrimmage in each of his past five seasons with 220+ touches. He is currently a sixth-round pick.

Jonathan Brooks is currently being drafted two to three rounds after Chuba Hubbard, who has shown poor efficiency metrics.

Chuba Hubbard struggled with efficiency last year, ranking near the bottom of qualified RBs in yards after contact per attempt and explosive run rate. He also ranks 30th in yards per target among high-volume RBs over the last three years.

DeAndre Swift has produced at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three seasons and ranks fourth among RBs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards since entering the NFL. He is currently being drafted as RB23, which Matthew Berry suggests is too low.

Rhamondre Stevenson ranked third among running backs in fantasy points per touch last year, yet Travion Henderson is being drafted two and a half rounds ahead of him.

Kenneth Walker ranked sixth in yards per route run among RBs last year. Andy Reid indicated to Dan Graziano that the Chiefs' plan is to get Walker involved in the passing game.

Derrick Henry is the only running back with at least 1,500 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons and led the league in goal-to-go rushing attempts last year. He has 34 touchdowns in 34 games for Baltimore.

Kyren Williams is the only non-QB to record 13 or more touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. Matthew Berry explicitly labels him as underrated.

Matthew Stafford led the NFL with a 7.7% passing touchdown rate last year, a metric that historically regresses significantly for the league leader the following season.

Brock Purdy has the highest combined passing and rushing yards per game over the last two seasons, though Matthew Berry notes that players who lead the league in passing touchdown rate often see a significant regression the following year.

Malik Willis leads all players in yards per attempt over the last three seasons and fantasy points per dropback over the last two. With an average of 44.8 rushing yards per game in his six starts, he fits the profile of a top-10 fantasy QB, yet is being drafted as QB23.

Jared Goff has led the NFL in passing yards (18,206) and touchdown passes (130) since 2022 and is the only quarterback to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB in total points in each of the last four years. He is currently being drafted as QB17.

Kyler Murray has finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in points per game in every season he has played at least eight games. Despite this, his current ADP is QB16, which Matthew Berry implies is a value given the depth of the position.

Lamar Jackson is one of four quarterbacks to maintain a 15-plus fantasy points per game average in every season dating back to 2019 and ranks in the top four in fantasy points per game since 2020.

Patrick Mahomes is one of four quarterbacks to maintain a 15-plus fantasy points per game average in every season dating back to 2019 and ranks in the top four in fantasy points per game since 2020.

Matthew Berry notes that Josh Allen is one of only four quarterbacks to average 15-plus fantasy points per game in every season since 2019 and ranks among the top four QBs in fantasy points per game since 2020.

Matthew Berry demonstrates how stats can be manipulated to support any narrative; Lawrence finished last year as the QB1 over the final seven games and a top-five QB overall, yet his 2023 injury-plagued season and high sack/drop counts can be used to paint him as a bust.

Matthew Berry ranks Trey McBride as a top-three tight end, noting that he is part of the consensus tier alongside Brock Bowers and Colston Loveland.

Matthew Berry ranks Brock Bowers as a top-three tight end, noting that he is part of the consensus tier alongside Trey McBride and Colston Loveland.

Matthew Berry classifies Kyler Murray as a loss among his 'Ride or Die' selections for 2023, noting that while he didn't 'kill' fantasy teams, his performance was clearly not great.

Matthew Berry identifies Daniel Jones as a 'massive loss' among his previous 'Ride or Die' selections, specifically citing his 2022 performance.

Matthew Berry references Darius Slayton as a past 'Ride or Die' selection from 2018 who failed to return value due to an ACL injury, noting that injuries are unpredictable.

Matthew Berry uses George Pickens' 2025 production (17.2 fantasy points per game) as a benchmark to illustrate the potential fantasy output for DeVonta Smith in an expanded role.

Matthew Berry notes that AJ Brown is no longer with the Eagles, which he believes creates 'addition by subtraction' for the Philadelphia offense and specifically for DeVonta Smith's target share.

Matthew Berry named DeVonta Smith his 2026 'Ride or Die' player, projecting him as a WR1 with top-five fantasy upside and league-winning potential. With AJ Brown gone, Berry expects Smith to command elite target volume, noting that Smith has historically averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game when AJ Brown is off the field.

Matthew Berry identifies Ladd McConkey as one of his five finalists for his 2026 'Ride or Die' selection, indicating he is a player Berry is high on for the upcoming season.

Matthew Berry identifies Chase Brown as one of his five finalists for his 2026 'Ride or Die' selection, indicating he is a player Berry is high on for the upcoming season.

Matthew Berry identifies Kenneth Walker as one of his five finalists for his 2026 'Ride or Die' selection, indicating he is a player Berry is high on for the upcoming season.

Matthew Berry views Loveland as a focal point of one of the NFL's best offenses and a difference-maker at the tight end position. He is ranked as the TE3, consistent with consensus, though Berry has him slightly higher in his overall rankings.