MNF Recap + Week 6 Waiver Wire

Aaron Rodgers is worth an add; under Mike McCarthy, the Steelers run a pass-happy offense that leads the NFL in pass rate over-expected, and Rodgers has posted over 20 fantasy points in three straight games; while the Buccaneers matchup is not ideal, the schedule improves significantly after Tampa Bay with games against the Saints and Browns, making him a viable number two quarterback option in super flex leagues.

Antonio Williams is expected to be the wide receiver two in Washington; if Stefan Diggs misses another game, Williams will see increased opportunities, though Washington will be trailing against the Niners this week.

Audrick Estime is leading the Cleveland backfield alongside Jaleel McLaughlin.

If both Quinchan Judkins and Raheem Sanders are out for the Browns, Audrick Estime would lead the backfield alongside Jaleel McLaughlin.

Matthew Berry highlights Bijan Robinson as part of the Falcons' elite top-three skill position combo (alongside Kyle Pitts and Drake London) in a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Bears' poor road defense; the Falcons are expected to score heavily at home in a dome with good weather.

Brandon Cooks is the next man up in the 49ers wide receiver room following the injury to Debo Samuel; positioned as a deeper league target but noted as requiring teams to be pretty far down their waiver list to target him.

Brian Robinson Jr. is listed among Matthew Berry's top insurance running backs that need to be rostered for teams not requiring an immediate starter due to injuries or bye weeks.

Brock Bowers is functioning as the Raiders' de facto wide receiver one in the offense, despite being a tight end. Matthew Berry notes that the Raiders lack a true number-one receiver that can split out wide and be trusted in man coverage, making Bowers the primary receiving option.

CJ Stroud is playing at a high level ('lights out') and will generate a ton of receptions and opportunities for running backs like Woody Marks in the Texans offense, which is still ascending and hasn't hit its peak.

Matthew Berry expects Caleb Williams to return healthy for Week 6 against Atlanta; with Ben Johnson's goal of breaking the scoring record and the Bears' explosive offensive potential (put up almost 70 points in Week 1), a fresh Williams in good weather/dome conditions is positioned for a high-scoring shootout against the Falcons.

Matthew Berry identifies the Colts-Titans matchup as a difficult spot for Cam Ward, noting it has been a struggle for the quarterback in this particular pairing.

Despite 82% route participation (season high), Dalton Kincaid was targeted on only 8% of his routes in the Monday night game. Over the past three weeks, he's averaging just three fantasy points per game, under 20 receiving yards per game, and caught only two points on a two-point conversion. Matthew Berry had him as a top-ten tight end play this week and was wrong; he's benching Kincaid until seeing more consistency, though the upside remains given Joe Brady's stated emphasis on getting him the ball.

Daniel Jones, despite not being very good this season, faces the Titans in a matchup that could help him get back on track; Matthew Berry highlights this as a favorable opportunity for Jones to improve his performance.

Darius Cooper is mentioned as a waiver wire option behind Dontavian Wicks and Makai Lemon; described as not getting a ton of work but somehow constantly finding the end zone, suggesting touchdown upside despite limited volume.

David Montgomery suffered a groin injury and is week-to-week. Matthew Berry notes that groins are tough injuries that take time to heal, opening the door for Woody Marks to take over as the lead back in Houston's offense.

Debo Samuel is injured, opening opportunities for Brandon Cooks and Jacob Cowling in the 49ers wide receiver room.

DeMario Douglas will have a larger role for the Patriots if Matt Collins remains out; positioned as a deeper league waiver target.

Smith is not expected back, which reduces the Eagles' passing game options and increases their reliance on the running game against Carolina, benefiting volume-dependent backs like Damian Pierce.

Devontae Smith's injury status is uncertain heading into the week; if he remains unable to return, it opens opportunities for Dontavian Wicks and Makai Lemon to see increased targets in the Eagles offense.

DK Metcalf is a wide receiver who can win 50-50 balls and win against man coverage in the Steelers' top 10 offensive weapon group, which is the most underrated in the NFL; he benefits from Aaron Rodgers' trust and Mike McCarthy's pass-happy system.

Matthew Berry identifies Drake London as part of the Falcons' elite top-three skill position combo (alongside Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts) in a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Bears' poor road defense; the Falcons are expected to score heavily at home in a dome with good weather.

Emmett Johnson, backing up Ken Walker in Kansas City, is listed among Matthew Berry's top insurance running backs that need to be rostered for teams not requiring an immediate starter due to injuries or bye weeks.

Matthew Berry flags Gino Smith's turnover-prone tendencies as a matchup concern against the Patriots defense, implying vulnerability in Week 6.

Likely is dialed in as a big physical target who can win 50-50 balls in an offense that will rely on the running game and face heavy boxes; this creates a perfect situation for him as a pass catcher in a volume-dependent offense with Jameis Winston throwing over 50 times per game.

Isaiah Likely is dialed in and healthy heading into the Saints matchup, supporting the recommendation to stream Jameis Winston this week.

Jacob Cowling is mentioned alongside Brandon Cooks as a beneficiary of Debo Samuel's injury in the 49ers wide receiver room; positioned as a very deep league target.

Jaleel McLaughlin is leading the Cleveland backfield alongside Audrick Estime.

Jaleel McLaughlin, a former Bronco, would see work in the Browns backfield if both Quinchan Judkins and Raheem Sanders are out.

Hurts has been struggling with his passing game and inconsistency, which will force the Eagles to lean heavily on the running game against Carolina, reducing his volume and elevating Pierce's opportunity.

Jameis Winston has back-to-back games with 250+ passing yards and three touchdown passes. Matthew Berry recommends him this week against New Orleans, who allow the fourth-highest passing rating to opposing quarterbacks. With Malik Nabors fully healthy and Isaiah Likely dialed in, Winston projects for high volume (over 50 passing attempts expected) as the team will be down and forced to take shots downfield.

Matthew Berry recommends Winston this week against the Saints, who allow the fourth highest passing rating to opposing quarterbacks; Winston is a true gunslinger (third in percentage of throws into tight windows per NFL Next-Gen Stats) who will exceed 50 passing attempts because New Orleans will be down and he trusts his arm, making him a volume play with elite pass catchers Malik Nabors and Isaiah Likely.

Matthew Berry highlights Jameis Winston's strong recent play as part of the Saints offense in a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Giants; the Saints average almost 54 points per game this season and face a Giants defense in the bottom seven in yards per play allowed, supporting an over bet on the Saints-Giants total of 45.5.

Over the past four weeks, James Cook is averaging 20 fantasy points per game and ranks as the sixth-best running back in fantasy football, averaging over 21 touches per game. Despite fumbling issues and touchdown dependency (33% of his fantasy points from TDs), Matthew Berry makes an exception for Cook because the Bills offense is strong enough to support him. Cook was immediately returned to the game after a brutal late-game fumble, signaling coach confidence.

Jalen Warren is playing at a top 10 running back level and is part of the Steelers' most underrated offensive weapon group in the NFL; he benefits from Aaron Rodgers' trust in Mike McCarthy's pass-happy system and a top 10 weapons group that includes DK Metcalf, Jeremy Bernard, and Roman Wilson.

Jonah Coleman is eligible to return from IR in Week 7 and Matthew Berry recommends stashing him, calling him the most talented running back in the Broncos backfield.

Through five games, Josh Allen has three 30-or-more-point fantasy games; every other quarterback in the NFL has combined for five such games. Matthew Berry states he would not trade Allen for anything and emphasizes this is not a sell-high situation—Allen accomplished this without DJ Moore and despite James Cook's two fumbles, demonstrating legitimate sustained elite production.

Keaton Mitchell has played three straight games with 20 offensive snaps, averaging 12 touches per game over the stretch, with back-to-back games at 19% target share; Matthew Berry prefers Vidal to Mitchell but notes all three Chargers running backs will have middling value.

Keenan Allen is starting to get more work and is described as underrated; he has a nice matchup against the Titans this week, making him a deeper league target worth considering.

Kendrick Bourne has a real opportunity with Marvin Harrison Jr. now in Houston; second on the team with 17% target share last week and 73% route participation on the season. In the two games with above 15% target share, he's averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game and over 72 yards per game. With Jacoby Brissette understanding the assignment to get the ball to the guys the team cares about, Bourne is positioned for increased volume on a pass-heavy Cardinals team that will be trailing and throwing frequently.

Cardinals are almost a two-touchdown underdog to the Rams this week, which means they will be throwing a lot. With Wilson McBride on one side of the field, Bourne should see a lot of single coverage on the other side, making him an attractive play in a game script that favors volume.

Kendrick Bourne is Matthew Berry's number two wide receiver waiver wire recommendation, expected to see an uptick in targets following the trade of Marvin Harrison Jr. from the Eagles.

Keon Coleman failed to hit his prop in Monday night's game against Kansas City. Matthew Berry had expected a bigger game from him, but Trent McDuffie had him locked up and the Bills' passing attack was not efficient due to the Rams' defensive pressure, forcing the offense to rely on Josh Allen's legs and James Cook's rushing.

Kamani Vidal played 41% of snaps in Week 6, his highest snap share of the season; his snaps have increased three straight weeks. He has a 6.3 yards per carry, the most of any Chargers running back, and has posted at least a 9% target share in three straight games. Matthew Berry notes he had a big touchdown run and looked the best of the three Chargers running backs last Sunday, suggesting he's becoming a flex-range option with increasing workload in the backfield.

Kirk Cousins had a wonky week last week; Matthew Berry expresses interest in seeing if his numbers bounce back this week, suggesting some uncertainty about his recent performance.

Over the past four weeks, Kirk Cousins is averaging 19.7 fantasy points per game and 277 passing yards per game. Matthew Berry calls him a viable streamer this week against Buffalo, who rank worst in pass defense and fourth-worst in passing touchdowns allowed; the 53.5 over-under suggests high scoring potential.

Matthew Berry highlights Cousins' impressive run as one of the best of his entire career: he's at the top of almost all quarterback statistics despite an inefficient running game, no true number-one receiver (only Brock Bowers as a de facto WR1), and limited play-action opportunities. He's one of the best quarterbacks against pressure despite his immobility, crediting his health recovery from his Achilles injury and his experience in understanding offensive line coordination with center Lindenbaum.

Kyle Monongai remains out for the Bears; if he stays sidelined, Roshon Johnson will see additional work in the backfield.

Matthew Berry identifies Kyle Pitts as part of the Falcons' elite top-three skill position combo (alongside Bijan Robinson and Drake London) in a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Bears' poor road defense; the Falcons are expected to score heavily at home in a dome with good weather.

Makai Lemon is recommended as a waiver wire target with a 21% target share in the two games Devontae Smith missed; Berry notes Lemon hasn't fully capitalized on opportunities yet but expects improvement as he gains rhythm with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense, particularly if Saquon Barkley returns to open up the offense.

Makai Lemon is at a 21% target share in the two games Devontae Smith has missed, positioning him as a secondary option if Don Tavian Wicks is unavailable. This elevated target share indicates he's stepping into a meaningful role when Smith is sidelined.

Nabors looks fully healthy and is a big physical target who can win 50-50 balls in an offense that will rely on the running game and face heavy boxes; this creates a perfect situation for him as a pass catcher in a volume-dependent offense with Jameis Winston throwing over 50 times per game.

Malik Nabors looks fully healthy heading into the Saints matchup, supporting the recommendation to stream Jameis Winston this week.

Marvin Harrison's presence in the Texans offense will help create lighter boxes for running backs like Woody Marks. The Texans offense, with CJ Stroud playing at a high level and Harrison providing receiving threats, is still hitting its peak, creating opportunities for complementary pieces like Marks.

Matthew Stafford has posted 20+ fantasy points in three of the past four games, averaging 354 passing yards per game with three straight games of at least 50 passing attempts. Matthew Berry rates him as a borderline QB1 in the 11-13 range moving forward, noting the Rams are top-10 in pass rate over expectation and their defense is not as elite as preseason expectations. The upcoming schedule (Arizona, Las Vegas, Chargers, Washington) features no intimidating defenses.

Matthew Berry expects Michael Penix Jr. to return and lead the Falcons offense in a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Bears; the Falcons have one of the best statistical offenses with elite skill position talent (Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London), playing at home in a dome with good weather conditions, positioning them to score heavily against Chicago's poor road defense.

Mike Washington Jr. of the Raiders is listed among Matthew Berry's top insurance running backs that need to be rostered for teams not requiring an immediate starter due to injuries or bye weeks.

Puka Nakua had 17 receptions on Monday night (a Monday night record for him), with 24 targets—the most in a game since Brandon Marshall's 28 in 2008. Since returning in two games, he's averaging over 32 fantasy points per game with a 35% target share. Matthew Berry emphasizes that everyone knew the ball was going to Puka and it didn't matter, signaling his elite unguardable status in the Rams offense.

Raheem Sanders, backup to Quinchan Judkins in the Browns backfield, has a hip issue and is dealing with injury concerns.

Roman Wilson is banged up, which hurts the Steelers' offense because he is really good, especially at slot; his injury impacts the depth of an otherwise top 10 offensive weapon group.

Roshon Johnson will see additional work for the Bears if Kyle Monongai remains out.

Roshon Johnson will see work for the Bears if Kyle Monongai remains out.

Ryan Flournoy continues to play a lot for the Cowboys in what should be a high-scoring game against Green Bay, making him a deeper league waiver target.

Saquon Barkley is expected to return, but the Philadelphia backfield has become a bloodbath with Will Shipley injured and Tank Bigsby on IR, creating uncertainty about the backfield hierarchy.

Barkley is hopeful to return in week six but remains out; his status creates a significant role opportunity for backup Damian Pierce in the interim.

Stefan Diggs' injury status is uncertain; if he misses another game against the Niners, Antonio Williams will see increased opportunities, though Washington will be trailing in that matchup.

Tank Bigsby is on IR, contributing to the chaos in the Philadelphia backfield alongside Will Shipley's injury, creating uncertainty for the Eagles' running back situation.

Bigsby is on IR for multiple weeks, contributing to a bloodbath in the Philadelphia backfield and opening the door for Damian Pierce to see significant volume.

Trey Tucker is recommended as a deeper league target with a favorable matchup against a struggling Bills secondary.

Will Shipley is injured, contributing to the chaos in the Philadelphia backfield alongside Tank Bigsby's IR placement, creating uncertainty for the Eagles' running back situation.

Shipley is out multiple weeks, creating a significant backfield vacancy in Philadelphia alongside Tank Bigsby's IR placement.

With David Montgomery week-to-week with a groin injury, Woody Marks becomes the number-one running back pickup on waivers. In three career games with at least 15 touches, he's averaging 13 fantasy points per game. Matthew Berry projects him as a low-end RB2 or flex, especially in PPR. After Montgomery left last week's game, Marks had 98% of snaps and 100% of the team's running back touches. Against Jacksonville this week (tough on runners but generous with receptions to opposing backs), Marks' passing-game ability will help him as a viable flex.

Woody Marks is Matthew Berry's top waiver wire add, expected to take over the Texans backfield and viewed as a low-end RB2 for as long as Dave Montgomery is out.