Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry Source

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry artwork

PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

7 Players to Avoid in Your Drafts with Matthew Freedman

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 4 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Aug 7, 2026

Published

Fri, August 7, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Breece HallBrock BowersKenneth Walker IIILamar JacksonAmon-Ra St. BrownBo NixCarson BeckColston LovelandGeno SmithHaynes KingJaylen WaddleJeremiyah LoveJonathan TaylorJordan Addison

Player analysis

Player insights

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection56:40

Matthew Freedman identifies Amon-Ra St. Brown as his preferred first-round pick among top wide receivers, citing his consistent 27%+ target share over four years and his status as the only receiver to score 300+ PPR points in each of the last three seasons.

Insight page

Bo Nix

NegativeValue34:11

Matthew Freedman is fading Bo Nix at his current ADP (QB15, 107 overall) because he believes Nix is not a high-end NFL talent and lacks the upside to finish as a top-five or top-six fantasy quarterback. Freedman notes Nix has been 28th out of 33 qualified QBs in yards per attempt over the last two years and is fortunate to be in a Sean Payton offense. He prefers waiting to draft cheaper QBs with similar or higher upside like Malik Willis or Tyler Shuck.

Insight page

Breece Hall

NegativeProjection61:56

Matthew Freedman is fading Breece Hall, arguing that players on terrible teams rarely become league winners. Freedman believes Hall's ceiling is capped as a solid RB2 and warns that if the Jets' offense struggles, Hall's season could be submarined. He notes the team's poor scoring history under Frank Reich's recent systems as a concern.

Insight page

NegativeValue61:57

Matthew Freedman categorizes Breece Hall as part of an 'uncertain sea' of running backs available after the first two rounds, suggesting a significant drop-off in value after the top-tier RBs.

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Brock Bowers

NegativeProjection50:47

Matthew Freedman ranks Brock Bowers ahead of Trey McBride, citing his potential for a massive target share due to a lack of competition in the Raiders' offense. Both Berry and Freedman agree on ranking Bowers highly, though they acknowledge the risk of defensive attention and his injury history from last season.

Insight page

PositiveValue62:12

Matthew Freedman suggests that the current inflation of running back prices in the first two rounds creates value for other positions, specifically highlighting Brock Bowers as a target in those rounds.

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Carson Beck

PositiveProjection2:22

Carson Beck looked professional in his debut, showing command of the offense and two-minute drill execution. Fantasy Life projections already anticipated him playing 6-8 games, and his performance reinforces the likelihood of significant playing time. His dynasty stock has improved, making him a viable target in deep superflex formats.

Insight page

Colston Loveland

PositiveSleeper51:08

Matthew Berry and Matthew Freedman both express high enthusiasm for Colston Loveland, with Berry labeling him a 'ride or die' player who could have a monster year. Freedman notes that some drafters are already taking him as a top-three tight end.

Insight page

Geno Smith

PositiveProjection40:29

Matthew Berry notes that scouts and analysts view Geno Smith as a competent quarterback whose poor performance last year was largely due to a dysfunctional system and the league's worst offensive line. Berry projects him as a top-17 to top-20 quarterback, expecting him to be reasonably competent in the current offense.

Insight page

Haynes King

PositiveSleeper9:27

While currently third on the Panthers' depth chart, Haynes King possesses fantasy value if he earns a spot start due to his rushing ability. He is a potential late-season waiver wire pickup who could provide immediate fantasy viability if forced into the starting lineup.

Insight page

Jaylen Waddle

PositiveProjection44:14

Matthew Freedman projects Jalen Waddle to have a strong season, noting that Waddle was number one in the league in air yard share after Tyreek Hill's injury last year. Despite concerns about the quarterback play, Freedman expects Waddle to be the primary receiver in the offense and projects him in the 1,000 to 1,200-yard range.

Insight page

Jeremiyah Love

PositiveValue60:23

Matthew Berry expresses belief in Jeremiah Love and advises that reaching for him five or six spots above ADP is acceptable if he is a player you want to root for.

Insight page

Jonathan Taylor

NegativeValue48:42

Matthew Freedman is fading Jonathan Taylor at his current first-round ADP. While acknowledging Taylor is an awesome player with high red-zone usage, Freedman cites durability concerns—noting Taylor has missed 16 games over the last five years—and prefers to draft Derek Henry in the second round instead, allowing him to take a top-tier wide receiver in the first round.

Insight page

Jordan Addison

NegativeBust44:55

Matthew Freedman is significantly below market on Jordan Addison, ranking him 121st overall compared to an ADP of 108. Freedman argues Addison has almost no path to becoming the team's WR1 with Justin Jefferson present, and that other receivers in his range, such as Jalen McMillan, Josh Downs, and Wan'Dale Robinson, have clearer paths to fantasy relevance.

Insight page

Kenneth Walker III

PositiveValue59:56

Matthew Berry advises that if a drafter truly believes in a player like Kenneth Walker, they should not hesitate to draft him ahead of ADP. Berry emphasizes that 'getting your guys' is more important than strictly following rankings once the season begins.

Insight page

PositiveValue60:07

Matthew Berry suggests that if you believe in Kenneth Walker's potential to be the RB1, you should draft him regardless of ADP, even if it means taking him six spots ahead of his current market price.

Insight page

Kyren Williams

NegativeValue61:57

Matthew Freedman categorizes Kyren Williams as part of an 'uncertain sea' of running backs available after the first two rounds, suggesting a significant drop-off in value after the top-tier RBs.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

NegativeBust12:09

Matthew Freedman is fading Lamar Jackson at his current ADP due to structural changes in Baltimore, including a new defensive-minded head coach in Jesse Minter and a first-time offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle. Jackson also carries injury risk, having missed 14 games over the last five years, and saw his rushing production decline to a career-low 26.8 yards per game last season. While his ceiling remains elite, the uncertainty of the new offensive environment and his age (29) make him a risky premium-priced asset.

Insight page

NegativeValue19:12

Matthew Freedman would consider drafting Lamar Jackson if his ADP falls into the 5th or 6th round, specifically if he is available after quarterbacks like Drake Maye or Joe Burrow. At that point, the risk-to-reward ratio becomes more palatable compared to his current consensus QB2 pricing.

Insight page

Tee Higgins

NegativeBust42:21

Matthew Freedman argues that Tee Higgins has a low ceiling while Ja'Marr Chase is healthy, noting Higgins has never exceeded 1,100 yards in a season and has missed 16 games over the last five years. Freedman believes Higgins is a 'floor' play rather than a league-winner, though Berry notes he is acceptable as a WR2 if the drafter prioritizes running backs early.

Insight page

Trey McBride

NegativeBust50:10

Matthew Freedman is fading Trey McBride as the TE1 off the board, preferring Brock Bowers in his rankings. Freedman worries that if the Cardinals' offense struggles in the second half of the season—potentially with Carson Beck at quarterback—McBride's fantasy production could suffer, despite acknowledging his high floor and talent.

Insight page

Tyler Warren

PositiveSleeper57:11

Matthew Berry and Matthew Freedman are high on Tyler Warren, suggesting he could emerge as the Colts' most productive pass catcher. They view him as a potential value who could perform near the level of the top-tier tight ends like Loveland and Bowers.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

774

0:00It is noon on YouTube, but it is 5 o'clock somewhere.

0:03The Happy Hour Bar is open. It is Matthew Berry here.

0:07And you know what today is? Today is a Fantasy Life Friday.

0:10That is right. It's a Fantasy Life Friday. You know I'm a company man.

0:14So I'm going to bring in my buddy Matthew Freedman at Matt F.

0:18The Oracle on Twitter. Matt, so people know who you are.

0:21In addition to a dad, you are since 2020, you are the most accurate NFL mock drafter since 2020 by independent analysis.

0:28You've been a top 20 fantasy ranker in each of the past five seasons by independent analysis.

0:33You have over 100,000 followers in the Action Network app.

0:36And in addition to being an NFL analyst, you are also the head of branded content at FantasyLife.com at Matt F.

0:42The Oracle. Freedman, my brother, thanks for joining the show.

0:45Hey, thanks for having me. It's great finally to get to be on an episode with you, my overlord.

0:51And I have to say, I am jealous of the background that you have back there.

0:56I have just these hats. You have great looking liquor back there.

0:59It's great to be here on a Friday noon.

1:02I feel like noon is like about the time where it's like maybe acceptable on a Friday to start entertaining the idea of an adult beverage.

1:10But it's always a good time to talk fantasy football as well.

1:13And the Hall of Fame game, it's like we have actual football.

1:17Theoretically, actual football to talk about. It's a great time of year.

1:20Yeah, so we had actual football. We're going to get to that.

1:24And Sam Rockwell, what are you talking about, man, Chuck?

1:27Saying that you look a little bit like Sam Rockwell, the regulars in the house.

1:31It is a double Matthew show, as Fix It Fire mentioned as well.

1:35The regular is already on fire. I understand. So in coming up today in the show, so we're going to talk about

1:42the Hall of Fame game last year. You know, Carson Beck, too early to talk Hall of Fame for Carson Beck.

1:48And then so we'll talk about the Hall of Fame game.

1:51And then we've got Friedman's Fades, right? Buckeye Man for Life.

1:54Happy Friday, the regulars. Regulars drink free today. That is right.

1:58The regulars drink free every day, I believe. But we have Friedman's Fades.

2:02This is an article that is up for free on FantasyLife.com.

2:05But the eight players you are fading at their current ADP.

2:08So we will talk about that, Friedman. We'll go through that.

2:11And we have a couple of questions. I don't know if you're aware, but the regulars, the fans of Happy Hour, my

2:18fellow drunks, they've started their own Discord. And so we have an incredibly active Discord.

2:22I encourage everyone to find the FFHH Discord. I'll tweet out the link later today.

2:27But anyway, it's really active. And so we have some questions from the Fantasy Football Happy Hour Discord.

2:32So we'll do that. We'll do that really quickly.

2:35The last thing I want to do here, Friedman, because, you know, it is a Fantasy Life Friday and I am a company man.

2:42Give me your best Fantasy Life pitch. Like, should we talk about Fantasy Life Plus, our 37 Tools premium product?

2:48Should we talk about guillotine leagues? Should we talk about just all the great content we have at Fantasy Life?

2:54Like, give me your best, you know, 20 seconds pitch on FantasyLife.com.

2:57Well, I'll say. Because I'm always doing it. Yeah, I will say not only are you a company man, you are the company man.

3:05It is Matthew Barry's Fantasy Life. So I think that's the starting point.

3:08It all comes down from the founder, the guy whose name is in the company title.

3:13And so just as Matthew Barry is excellent, we are an excellent website.

3:17We have great tools that are getting better every year.

3:20We have great rankings, great projections that are managed by Dwayne McFarlane, who is, for my money, one of the best fantasy analysts.

3:27Just, you know, bar none. If I had to give a fantasy team to someone and say, hey, manage it for me.

3:33Dwayne would be one of the people I would give that to.

3:37And then just great people across the company. Friedman, who else is on that list?

3:41I mean, I would say Rich Rebar. I think, like, Rich is incredibly sharp.

3:46I mean, yeah, you definitely hand it off to him.

3:48Sean Kerner, who does a lot of analytics at the Action Network.

3:52Super sharp guy, can do projections for any sport, just cerebral.

3:55So those are, if I had to kind of have, like, a Mount Rushmore of people I like spending time with in

4:02the industry and who are sharp and who I would trust to run a fantasy team of mine, those would be guys on the list.

4:09So a couple reactions there real quickly. Number one is I completely agree with you about Dwayne.

4:14Like, I think he's one of the best hires we've made in the history of fantasy life.

4:19I think he is, you know, I know Adam Rank uses this.

4:23But I think Dwayne actually is your favorite fantasy analyst's favorite fantasy analyst.

4:27I really think Dwayne is that, truthfully that. I think Rich and Sean both do a great job.

4:32So I'm with you on that. I will say that was kind of an easy layup to suck up to me, your boss, and you missed it, candidly.

4:40So off to a poor start. No big deal.

4:43But, you know, thank you for doing the show.

4:46We appreciate it. Might be a while before you're invited back.

4:49But in the meantime, look, I'll say I will say.

4:52No, it's fine. Screw you. You can't come back from that, Friedman.

4:56It is what it is at this point. I literally gave you a layup.

5:00You could have just said, and obviously you or whatever.

5:03You could have just thrown it in at the end, but you didn't.

5:07Like, you know, I laid it out for you.

5:09It is what it is. It's fine. I'm not here for yes, man.

5:13I'm not here for sucking up. I'm just pointing out, Friedman, that you had kind of an easy opportunity to brown nose

5:20without actually brown nosing, and you completely missed it.

5:22So just a heads up there. Look, you're right.

5:25You're correct. But the thing is, I felt even if I made the obligatory small gesture, it would seem fake.

5:31And so I was giving you the honor of not coming on to your show and kissing up to you needlessly.

5:37Yeah. Nice try. Nice try. But look, nice try is exactly what Carson Beck did in this Hall of Fame game last night.

5:44Now, listen, it's the first game of the season.

5:47It's a bunch of vanilla defenses. It's a bunch of guys that probably aren't going to make these teams.

5:52But Friedman, talk to me about your reactions from watching last night's game.

5:56Even given all that vanilla defense, you know, practice squad guys are guys that are barely going to make the team.

6:02Carson Beck was better than I thought he was going to be.

6:06Yeah, it's the Hall of Fame game. I mean, although it's the Hall of Fame, you expect this to be one of

6:13the worst displays of football that you will see all year.

6:16And I have to say, wearing the dad hat, my wife gave birth to our daughter in April.

6:21It's sad that this had to be the first professional football event that she sees in her life.

6:27That said, Carson Beck made it somewhat entertaining. And even before this game, in the fantasy life game model projections that we

6:33have, we were expecting Carson Beck to play maybe six to eight games this season.

6:38And I don't think anything that we saw last night would make us second guess that.

6:42I think if anything, it makes us think, yeah, he's got a very real chance of seeing significant playing time this season.

6:49Again, you mentioned Hall of Fame game preseason. Sometimes the football is subpar, but you like to see guys who can actually

6:55drop back, command the offense in the huddle. It looks like they know what they're doing.

7:00They're able to run some of the two minute drill things.

7:03Like he did the things to look like a professional quarterback last night in his first time on the field.

7:09That's more than you can say for a lot of guys who get drafted in the second, third and fourth round.

7:16So Carson Beck, a long way to go, but he checked the box on his NFL debut.

7:21Yeah. I mean, look, and Juan Lucerne, uh, six to eight, four saying Carson Beck ride or die.

7:26Sure. He's on the list. There's no question one.

7:29Uh, there's no question, by the way, uh, if you go to fantasy life.com, I have a new column up, which is

7:35basically kind of the finalists for the, my ride or die candidates.

7:39It's, it's a, um, uh, it's all the suggestions from the team at fantasy life on who should be my ride or die this year.

7:46So I check, I, uh, recommend you checking out.

7:49I called the list a little bit. So, um, everyone on the list is in consideration for my ride or die, but

7:55to your point, like, you know, again, with all the usual caveats, you want Carson Beck to at least to look a little bit better.

8:03You know, you, you'd rather look better than not.

8:05And the last thing I'll say here, and, uh, but, um, on Beck is that like, I think, right.

8:11You feel better about the fact that if something were to happen to Jacoby Brissett, um, that you feel like, okay, this

8:18is somebody that can get the ball to the guys we care about.

8:22I also think his dynasty stock just improved a lot.

8:25You know what I mean? Like, I think for people that are doing dynasty drafts, again, you don't want to overreact to

8:31one preseason game, but you sit here and as you're, if you're in a super flex dynasty league, that's deep.

8:37And so all the obvious guys are going to go, but like, you know, later rounds, like, especially by the way, it's an already established dynasty league.

8:45And so you're just doing your rookie draft or whatever.

8:48And I know probably a lot of dynasty leagues have already had the rookie draft, but like Carson Beck has a real

8:55shot at playing and playing with real playmakers sooner rather than later.

8:58Cause again, I mean, Jacoby Brissett is like, you know, uh, like, uh, tell me you're down bad when you're not down bad.

9:05The Cardinals being held hostage by Jacoby Brissett. And also by the way, Jacoby Brissett losing leverage because of Carson Beck.

9:11Like, you know, again, tell me you're down bad without telling me you're down bad.

9:16Um, Friedman, I want to move over to the other side of the ball too.

9:20Um, I don't know that there's much to say about this game, but I do say that one, it was fun to see Haynes King.

9:27So, I mean, I grew up in college station, Texas.

9:30I root for Texas A&M. Haynes King is somebody that played for the Aggies before going to Georgia tech.

9:36Um, and look, I mean, it's the Panthers. He's third on the depth chart behind Bryce and Kenny Pickett, but it is

9:43worth noting that if Haynes King ever gets a spot start in the NFL, there's fantasy value there because of his legs.

9:49Absolutely. Uh, nailed it. It will be like one of those end of season.

9:53You're, you got into the playoffs, but then your quarterback got injured.

9:57You pick up Haynes King off of the waiver wire.

10:00Cause he's going to start at the very end of the season.

10:03And then all of a sudden like, oh man, this guy just won me a championship because somehow he Tim Tebowed it.

10:10Right. You could, you can like imagine that, uh, Haynes King.

10:13Yeah, absolutely. I don't think he really has a long-term NFL future, but to your point, if he ever gets to start,

10:20yeah, he will be fantasy viable right away because of the running ability.

10:24I will say this Friedman, by the way, you Lee, in addition to all the other things you do for us at

10:30fantasylife.com, you lead our coverage of college football. So, I mean, you, you do, uh, you're, uh, you're a hardcore, you know,

10:37um, uh, X's and O's and, and, uh, film guy.

10:40You, uh, you were kind of the lead of our, we did a fit for the first time ever fantasy life did

10:46an NFL draft preview magazine, which is available, uh, uh, everywhere.

10:50And, uh, and you, and you led the efforts there.

10:52A lot of your work is in that. So just in terms of if you follow Friedman and follow his work, he

10:59is somebody that understands sort of the rookies in a big way, um, as well.

11:03But, um, but while, and we'll get you on the, to talk, uh, rookies at another time, maybe next year, if I

11:10get over the, uh, Mount Rushmore, um, comments, but let's talk with your fades here, Friedman.

11:15And I want to be very clear. These are Friedman's frades feed, uh, Friedman's fades.

11:19Not easy for me to say. It's a hard one.

11:22I might be drunk already. Friedman's fades. So these are not my fades.

11:26These are Friedman's fades. And we start with Lamar Jackson.

11:29I admire you. Cause so many times you see these do not draft lists and they're like, ah, do not draft Haynes King.

11:36You know what I mean? Like, you know, um, you know, um, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm out on, you know, Sean Tucker.

11:42And you're like, all right, that's the third running back in the box.

11:46You know what I mean? But like you are, you are saying you're fading Lamar Jackson.

11:51So talk to me, I guess I probably should start this.

11:54What's the premise of the overall column? And then we'll get into Lamar.

11:58So Matthew, I feel like you were one of the first people, if not the first person I ever heard kind of

12:05say this, articulate this in the fantasy industry, you can't win your draft in the early rounds, but you sure can lose it in the early rounds.

12:13Yes. And, and so everyone wants to find the league winners, right?

12:16Matthew, you have that column looking at, you know, the ride or die.

12:20And it's great to find the league winners, but it's also, I think just as important to avoid the landmines, right?

12:26To avoid the guys who are, uh, team killers.

12:29And I don't think Lamar Jackson is quite in that category, but I do think he carries more risk than a lot of people maybe want to acknowledge.

12:37And so I'll just say the ceiling with Lamar Jackson is awesome.

12:41Like the ceiling with Lamar is the best fantasy season we've ever seen because we have already seen him do that literally in his career.

12:48So like the ceiling is there. I think he should have won MVP in 2024.

12:53I think he's been the best quarterback in the league over the past three seasons, but 2026 is a new year.

12:59And with it come new circumstances, John Harbaugh and OC Todd Munkin.

13:03They are gone. I have a lot of respect for what Munkin did in that offense with that system the past three years.

13:09So maybe those changes are positive, but Munkin helped Lamar become the most efficient passer over the past three seasons.

13:15Now he has a defensive minded head coach and Jesse mentor.

13:19He has a first time offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle who has never called plays before in the NFL.

13:24We have no idea what that offensive environment is going to look like.

13:28And then on top of that, Jackson has missed 14 games to injury over the past half decade.

13:34Last season with injuries, of course, he had a career low 26.8 rushing yards per game.

13:38He's 29 years old now. And so at some point a running quarterback as he ages is just going to be a

13:45little less athletic and a little, a little slower to bounce back from injuries.

13:49So we have Lamar Jackson who is objectively awesome.

13:52And I think should be ranked as a top three quarterback still, I think in an uncertain situation.

13:57And so as long as he's healthy, I don't think Jackson is going to underperform massively, but he's priced as a premium

14:04quarterback, which just makes me think of like, okay, if I'm going to pay up for a quarterback, I think I would

14:10rather pay up a little bit more for Josh Allen, who's been a top two fantasy quarterback every year since 2020, or

14:17I'd rather pay a little bit less for your guy, Jaden Daniels, or maybe even Jalen Hurts.

14:22Good question for Martin's world, 1987. How many freeze can a Friedman free if a Friedman free to freeze?

14:27That's right. Take that valiant Vincent thinking I'm a, I've gotten too much Pino early in the day.

14:33Pino Maddie can still bring it. Um, I look, I, I understand all those points right here.

14:38Um, and there is, there is definitely more risk for, uh, for Lamar Jackson, given where he goes than there are with

14:44some of the other elite quarterbacks to your point.

14:47I mean, uh, Josh Allen, proud fantasy life investor, Josh Allen, of course is rock solid.

14:52And I'll give you a couple of other stats that I think you didn't even add here over the last two seasons,

14:58Lamar Jackson has had to count them to rush attempts inside the five yard line.

15:03Like, I mean, think about that. I mean, again, he's 29 years old.

15:07They've got King Henry. I don't think it's any shock that over the last, the years that they've had Derek Henry, all

15:13of a sudden they get inside the five yard line.

15:16Lamar Jackson has literally only two total rush attempts inside the five yard line over the last two seasons.

15:22So that makes sense. Right. But I think raise the flag says, how can he say that, but not fade?

15:28I think you're right. Here's my counter argument to me.

15:31And like, I have my QB two, you have my QB three, um, in terms of our ranks that are up at fantasy life.com.

15:38Uh, and, uh, my take is what's weird is, is that like, I actually have him, um, I'm, I'm slightly lower on

15:44him in overall ADP just because I think quarterback is so deep this year.

15:48Right. I, my argument on Lamar Jackson, and I think Lamar Jackson actually has a monster year to be honest with you.

15:55Um, and I'll give you my reasons why. So I'm, I'm not fading him, but I will say I am sort of fading him.

16:02I'm fading elite quarterbacks just because I think the quarterback is so deep and we'll talk about the next guy coming up,

16:09but like, just, I mean, we, we talked about this on the other show, Baker Mayfield's like 21.

16:14Like, you know, if Baker Mayfield like, like it's so deep this year, it's the deepest I've ever seen it.

16:20Um, but you bring up Declan Doyle and, uh, Jesse mentor as negatives, the new co the new, you know, mentor being

16:26the new head coach and the new and Doyle, the new offense winner.

16:30I actually think those are positives. I think that this team is underperformed.

16:34And so I have, I have no proof on this, but my, um, my, my sources have told me that the rumors

16:41are is that at least later on, uh, towards his tenure in Baltimore, John Harbaugh was very easy on, on, uh, Lamar Jackson.

16:48That he just, you know, didn't, you know, like kind of what Lamar does, what, what Lamar wants.

16:53He does. He's the star of the team. And from what I understand, again, I don't, I don't know John Harbaugh at all.

17:00I don't know Jesse mentor at all, but from what I've heard from people that do is that Jesse mentor is a very much in your face guy.

17:08He is a get in your face guy. And, uh, and that one of the reasons he was brought in specifically is

17:15that he is somebody that's going to hold Lamar accountable and, you know, really, really, um, uh, you know, kind of getting his face.

17:22I, I remember talking to Devin McCourty, uh, in my, my, my friend and former colleague at NBC and Devin used to

17:28tell me that the reason they were so successful is that bill Belichick was harder on Tom Brady than any other player on the team.

17:36Like the guy that he yelled out the most, the guy whose face he got in the most was Brady.

17:42And Devin was like, like everyone else in the team is like, you see Belichick just ripping Tom, a new a-hole.

17:48And like, no one else can like complain about what he's yelling at you because you're seeing him dress down Tom.

17:54And he goes, and that's why I think the teams were so successful is because no one got it worse than Tom.

18:01And I think that, um, my suspicion is that's what Jesse Mincher is going to be doing this year on him.

18:07Remember, uh, remember in terms of, uh, last week, last year in weeks one through three, he was averaging over 27 points

18:13per game when he was fully healthy, Lamar Jackson.

18:16Um, also, and I don't have a stat for this, but you remember the two times that Aaron Rogers was left out

18:23of the top 10 of the top 100 players in the NFL the following year, he won the MVP each year.

18:29So you're sitting here, Lamar Jackson's going, I'm 69.

18:32I know he said it doesn't bother me. I don't care, but you're telling me it doesn't bother him.

18:37Of course it bothers him. Um, so I'm just saying, um, I think, uh, I think Lamar Jackson, um, to me, uh,

18:44I am not, I understand the premise. I am, I'm with you in the fact that I'm fading overall elite quarterbacks because

18:50I think it's so deep, but I do think, uh, he has a huge year.

18:55Let's move on to another quarterback here for even, and we'll try to go a little bit quicker here because I know

19:01we're, we spent a lot of time. Um, but then, then the FF regular FF HH regular says what round in a

19:0812 team draft would you would be buying low for Lamar at what point?

19:12Like I'm, that's a good question actually Friedman. So you're, you're understandably you're fading him because of the cost.

19:18As we talked about, like if you draft somebody like that high and he does get injured, which is always an issue

19:24with Lamar or the new offense doesn't click whatever reason I get that.

19:28But at what point are you willing to pull the trigger on Lamar Jackson?

19:32Cause you don't think he's a bad player, obviously.

19:35No, he's a, he's a great player. So we have the ADP tool at fantasy life.

19:40And so you can see ADP across all the different platforms.

19:43And in the consensus, Lamar Jackson is QB two, you know, going in, you know, round four ish in that range.

19:49So I would say if he falls below Drake may, if he goes into round five, round six, even if he falls

19:56below Joe burrow, uh, or, you know, if Jaden Daniels, uh, now with Stefan digs ends up going higher than we expect.

20:02But if Lamar falls below Drake may and maybe Joe burrow, then I would really start to consider Lamar Jackson.

20:08Cause I think, well, okay, at this point he's not nearly as risky, right?

20:12So it's all about the ADP, all about the other quarterbacks who go around him.

20:17I think if he falls below, like, so you, but you have them, you, oh, you, where, where do you have them ranked?

20:24You haven't, you haven't ranked at QB three. You're saying if he goes below.

20:28Yeah, I'm a QB three. So if he goes in the range where I think he should be ranked, if he goes

20:34as the QB three instead of the QB two, or if he goes as the QB four, okay.

20:40So if you start, if he starts to fall down, he's going like in the same round as like as may and

20:46Daniels and some of the, and burrows, right. Okay.

20:49That's what you're saying. Okay. Yeah. All right. Great.

20:51Well, one guy, another quarterback that you, you are fading this year is Bo Nix.

20:56Um, who look, Bo Nix has been a top 10 fantasy quarterback, both of his last two years, um, uh, he leads

21:02the NFL in past attempts over the past two seasons.

21:05Um, we know it's, it's a, we know that Davis Webb, former NFL quarterback, Davis Webb is going to be calling the

21:12plays this year for the first time, but it's still a Sean Payton offense.

21:16You know, um, they add Jaden Waddle, uh, Jalen Waddle.

21:19So Friedman, why are we fading Bo Nix? Okay.

21:22I will say I may be hanging on to my priors more than I should.

21:26Okay. I don't, you know, just coming from college.

21:29I thought Bo Nix was a little bit overrated pop gun kind of arm.

21:33All right. I think he got checks is by the way, stuntman Chuck, who's one of our regular says Bo Nix is

21:40the cover guy for the do not draft episode is a diehard Broncos and totally unbiased Broncos fan.

21:45I'm fuming. So stuntman Chuck is fuming and you're holding onto your prior.

21:49So I interrupted you Friedman, but go ahead, go ahead.

21:52Explain yourself to specifically stuntman Chuck. I don't care about anyone else.

21:55Just specifically, uh, explain yourself to stuntman Chuck. He's one of our loyal listeners.

22:00Look, did stuntman Chuck like Tim Tebow back in the day?

22:03I don't know. I mean, was Tim Tebow a good player?

22:06No. No. Like is, is Bo Nix game? He, he did.

22:09He did win a playoff game. Bo Nix led them.

22:12You can't get into NFL stuff. Bo Nix. First off, Tim Tebow was actually a good fantasy player.

22:18He was a terrible NFL quarterback, but Bo Nix was, I mean, Tim Tebow actually was like a top 10 fantasy quarterback

22:24on a points for game basis because of the rushing.

22:27And by the way, that's the argument for Bo Nix, right?

22:30Again, the rushing gets you there. Um, they're aggressive in the passing attack.

22:34And from an NFL quarterback standpoint, he's just like, um, uh, you know, he's a guy that, uh, led them to the

22:41AFC championship game and probably the super bowl. If he, if he didn't get hurt, you know, I mean, like, I mean,

22:47why you, I mean, he played the game, but you know what I mean?

22:52He clearly was hurting in the second half. I mean, Sam, Sam Darnold won a super bowl.

22:57Are we wanting to, are we wanting to draft him?

23:00I just, I don't think that Bo Nix is actually a good NFL player.

23:04That's the thing over the past two years, he's been number 32 in adjusted yards per attempt right below Jacoby Brissett and right ahead of Mac Jones.

23:12I don't think he's actually that good of a player.

23:15I think he is incredibly fortunate to be attached to Sean Payton.

23:18And, and that is the thing, right? The NFL high, almost 1200 pass attempts over the past two years.

23:24So he's in an offense that is moving quickly.

23:27That's throwing the ball a lot. And then he has just enough rushing production, 23.1 yards per game.

23:32But I mean, I think he wouldn't warrant consideration outside of super flex leagues.

23:36If the Broncos didn't throw the ball as much.

23:39And then now they do, the argument is, is they do.

23:42And, and my counter to you on Bo Nix is that I think you're probably right.

23:47That I don't think he's probably that good a quarterback in real life.

23:51He's a better fantasy life quarterback than a real life quarterback career, 6.5 yards per attempt.

23:55To your point out of the 33 qualified quarterbacks of the last two years, he's 28th.

24:00Right. Andrew likes Panther says Haynes King over Bo Nix.

24:03And someone else pointed out that Tim Tebow did save a person's, a fan's life at Citi Field.

24:08So, you know, like, let's go easy on the Tim Tebow slander.

24:12But, but all those things are still there. Like he does still, I guess my question to you is, is like, he's QB 15.

24:19You know what I mean? Like I'm a QB 15.

24:22You have him at QB 14, actually. Like, so we both have him as like a mid-tier QB two.

24:28Like, are you really fading? Is, is your argument that this is why I have him ranked outside the top 10 despite

24:34the fact that he's been a top 10 quarterback the last two years.

24:38And he added Jalen Waddell. Is that your, your point?

24:41It's two, it's twofold. It's twofold. So, so yes, there's, there's that.

24:45I think also the transition to Davis Webb maybe doesn't go as smoothly as people expect.

24:49But then the other part of this is that at QB 14, I look at him and I think, all right, how,

24:56how strong of a chance does he have of really dunking on me and like finishing as a top five, top six quarterback?

25:03I don't think he has that much chance of that.

25:06And then I think would I rather just wait a couple of quarterback spots and take Malik Willis, who, if things work

25:12out with him, even though he's in a terrible offense, he could run all over the NFL.

25:17Would I rather wait a little bit longer and take Tyler Shuck, who I think has just as much passing potential and

25:24just as much rushing potential, but who's cheaper? Like I would probably rather do those things.

25:29So it's not necessarily that it's totally about Bo Nix sucks.

25:32It's that I just think Bo Nix isn't going to dunk on me.

25:36And I'd rather wait a little bit longer to take quarterbacks that I think have a chance of being just as good.

25:42Noted Haynes King supporter, Andrew likes Panther says, what does that mean for Waddle?

25:47If Friedman is right. So that's my question, Friedman, because one of the things that you do for us at fantasylife.com, you've

25:53been very accurate about this over the last handful of years, you know, from independent analysis.

25:58But you are you are one of the people that do our projections.

26:02So like, you know, as part of a Fantasy Life Plus subscription, you get Friedman's projections and you do them for every single game.

26:09So how do your projections net out for Jalen Waddle, given the concerns on Bo Nix?

26:14And it sounds like, I mean, just I'm hearing you.

26:17It's less about Bo Nix, the player, even though you're not a fan of him NFL wise, but more about the cost

26:23of Bo Nix in terms of his current ADP, which is like, you know, 107 overall QB 15.

26:28We're just like, if I'm waiting that long for a quarterback, even in a super flex, I think there are guys that are cheaper.

26:36I'm with you on Tyler Schott, by the way, he's one of my big sleepers this year.

26:41There are guys that I can wait. If I've waited that long, I can wait longer versus, you know, that I like him as a mid tier.

26:49But yeah, so I'm curious where your projections net out on Jalen Waddle, given your Bo Nix stance.

26:54Yeah. So Waddle, I do like Waddle in general.

26:57And if we look at what he did last year after Tyreek Hill was injured, Waddle was number one in the league in air yard share.

27:04I mean, like he was actually being used as a real number one wide receiver.

27:09We saw early in his career where he had back to back to back thousand yard seasons.

27:14Now he's going into an offense where, again, I don't have a lot of respect for the passer, but they are still throwing the ball a ton.

27:22And I think Waddle has a very good chance of being the number one receiver in that offense.

27:27So like what Waddle did early in his career, where he has around like a thousand to 1200 yards receiving, that's the range where I would project him.

27:36All right. Fair enough. So, all right. So you understood on Bo Nix.

27:39Hopefully stuntman Chuck has calmed down a little bit here.

27:42So I think, honestly, for my take, I understand your point in terms of where it is.

27:47For me, actually, stuntman Chuck says, my neighbor just knocked on my door and asked if anything is okay.

27:53He heard screaming. Hopefully you're all right. Fair enough, stuntman Chuck.

27:56I get it. I understand. Friedman has that effect on people.

28:00For me, I can't remember. I can't remember. I mean, he's consensus QB 15, right?

28:04That is basically where he is. That's where he's going in the industry.

28:08Like no one, like, so neither of us are off market here, but I can't remember a year when a quarterback as

28:14good as Bo Nix has been QB 15. Like, is Bo Nix the best QB 15 in fantasy football history?

28:20Again, I'm talking fantasy football, not real life NFL, but seriously, again, like it's a, it's, you know, there's a long track

28:27record of Sean Payton throwing the ball all over the place and having fantasy friendly offenses.

28:32The fact that he has a former NFL quarterback now calling the plays.

28:36Like, I don't think Davis Webb is going to be like, as a former NFL quarterback, like, you know what you should really do?

28:43So we should hand off to RJ Harvey a lot more.

28:46Like, like they're going to be a pass, you know, uh, uh, uh, you know, a passing offense.

28:51I do think the addition of Waddle opens up a lot of different stuff.

28:55And we saw flashes last year from a lot of their got, you know, the Marvin Mims and Pat Bryant's of the

29:02world, you know, and obviously you've still got Sutton there.

29:05Like, like, like, like, I think the, you know, again, hopefully assuming the ankle is, is fully healthy, you know, I think

29:12he has, you know, I, I think he has top 10 upside, which has been the last two years, uh, which is

29:18at, you know, QB 15 is fine. This one is interesting to me.

29:22Um, your next fade here, it's friend of the podcast, Jonathan Taylor.

29:25Like this is a guy who's been a former number one running back in fantasy football, Jonathan Taylor.

29:31This is somebody who in weeks one through 13 last year with Daniel Jones, healthy and starting was the second best running back in fantasy football.

29:39He was averaging almost 25 points a game. He had 132 scrimmage yards per game.

29:43Why do you hate Jonathan Taylor Friedman? Whoa, I don't hate him.

29:47I don't hate him. I don't hate him. But I, I will say, uh, I hate that he's going in round one.

29:53Uh, and so I would rather. It's more about ADP.

29:56Again, the fades is like, I'm just, you know, um, we've got, we've got a clickbaity headline, which, you know, good for us.

30:03Uh, you know, I'm, I'm out here in these, uh, these internet streets.

30:07Yeah. I'm going to be clickbaity as all hell, but to be clear, Friedman, you're not saying you hate the player.

30:13You're more, you're more or less hate the price.

30:16Exactly. But the thing is, Jonathan Taylor never falls out of round one, which means I'm fading him because I'm never drafting him at that cost.

30:23I would rather wait and draft someone like Derek Henry.

30:26And to be clear, everything you said about Jonathan Taylor, awesome season last year, almost 2000 yards, 20 touchdowns from scrimmage.

30:33Uh, second in the NFL and red zone touches third and goal to go attempts.

30:37Like they get close. He gets the rock. Yeah.

30:40Awesome player. He's an awesome player, but he has missed 16 games over the past half decade.

30:45The durability concerns with him are real. I have zero durability concerns with Derek Henry, even though Derek Henry is 33 years

30:51old and has had 8 billion touches. Even, even though he's the dude is like a terminator.

30:56He is. I mean, like he hasn't been injured at any point in the past half decade.

31:01He's like missed one game. That's it. We look at what he's done over the past two years and Derek Henry almost,

31:08uh, on like a per touch basis per game basis.

31:11He's right there with Jonathan Taylor. And so I think, okay, Derek Henry healthy, not going to get injured.

31:17We know what his role is within that offense next to Lamar Jackson.

31:20And then you look at the Colts questionable quarterback situation.

31:23And then Jonathan Taylor has missed 16 games over the past half decade.

31:27It's like Jonathan Taylor is great. I would just rather wait a half round and get Derek Henry.

31:33Yeah, I guess my only argument to that, uh, I mean, and we're way apart.

31:37I mean, like you haven't met, you know, 15th overall running back seven in your ranks.

31:42I'm at eight overall running back four. So I'm as a first rounder, I, I am as a top eight pick, you

31:48know, I mean, again, as you, as you sort of sit here and say like, listen, um, the ceiling on some of these guys is capped, right?

31:56As you said, like with Bo Nix, like it's not going to get dunked on, like, you know, the odds of Bo

32:03Nix becoming the number one quarterback in fantasy are, are fairly slim.

32:07Right. But Jonathan Taylor being number one running back in fantasy is very much in play.

32:11Yeah. And I would argue that it's probably not the case with Derek Henry, unless, I mean, again, that he would need

32:18you to score 20, 25 touchdowns, which by the way, entirely possible with Derek Henry, but Jonathan Taylor, who isn't used as

32:24much in the passing game, but, um, but certainly when he has been, has been, um, uh, you know, has been effective

32:31as Brian Hickman, three, six, one, two says the last fantasy season, I faded Jonathan Taylor.

32:36He took my soul. So soulless Brian Hickman, which by the way, that should be your name from now on soulless Brian Hickman.

32:42You don't have it anymore. Obviously Jonathan Taylor took it.

32:45Um, so soulless Brian Hickman says that. Yeah. I mean, I just like, I'm a Shane Steichen believer.

32:51I understand the concerns about Daniel Jones and is he healthy and everything like that.

32:55But, um, if they can involve Taylor a little bit more in the passing game, like we think this is a pretty good offense.

33:02And, um, and there's, you know, I think you could argue that there's less, uh, competition for touches.

33:08Like Jonathan Taylor has never been in a concern for touches, but with Michael Pittman gone, Alec Pierce dealing with his own injuries, right?

33:15Like you could see Josh Downs, it's Tyler Warren, it's Jonathan Taylor.

33:18This is going to be a ball control West coast, you know, low a dot kind of offense.

33:24That's just sort of, you know, 10 yards at a chunk, just trying to just grind out drives after drive after drive.

33:30And so, um, Dan Vandy says, all right, if you're who, what receiver are you taking then?

33:35If you're, if you're at the end of the first round Friedman and you're like, I don't want any part of Jonathan

33:42Taylor, which one are you, which one are you sort of taking there?

33:46Because, because before you, before you answer that, because I think one of my other arguments for Jonathan Taylor, why I have

33:52him here is also about sort of, as I put together my top, you know, my top 200, as I sort of

33:59think about draft strategy and what I'm doing in a draft.

34:02And so the wide receivers that are going around that range also have question marks, right?

34:07The, the Nico Collins, Rasheed Rice's of the world, right?

34:10That, that have like, you know, we think Nico Collins is awesome, but you know, for whatever reason, they can't figure out

34:16how to get him the ball consistently. And he's got his own injury concerns.

34:21Rasheed Rice keeps doing stupid stuff. Like it just, you know, there's like, there's a couple of wide receivers in that range

34:27that also that you can sort of poke holes at as well, whether it's injury history or a bad quarterback or what have you.

34:34So, so Dan Vandy has a good question. Yeah, that's, that's a great question.

34:38So looking at the ADP tool that we have at fantasy life, you have a Mon Ross, St.

34:44Brown, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, CD lamb, Justin Jefferson.

34:46I would be happy to get any of those three wide receivers and then to take Derek Henry in the second round.

34:53And someone had posted the question, uh, Derek Henry over JT.

34:56No, I have JT ranked ahead of Derek Henry.

34:59It's just at cost. I would rather get Derek Henry around later and take one of those wide receivers in round one.

35:05All right. Fair enough. Um, a, uh, I mean, right.

35:08Fair enough. I mean, I could argue the other side of it.

35:12Like again, I'm on raw is like, I think he's rock Stalin.

35:15Right. Um, Oh, well, SM me, SEC man says the chat feels more like a snarling gang of Wolverines today.

35:21I don't know what's going on in the chat, so I can't really see it, but usually the chat for the show is very supportive.

35:29So, wow. We've, uh, on a Friday, we've got everyone's, uh, bio.

35:32All right. Everyone, everyone play nice in there. It's a bar.

35:36Don't make me send the bouncer in and, and throw everyone out.

35:39Bouncer Ed. Don't let me send them in there and kick anyone out.

35:43Everyone play nice. Um, in the main streets there.

35:46I think it makes sense that the chat, like it's, you know, love, hate.

35:50This episode is much more about hate than about love.

35:53And so I think it makes sense that the chat might pick up on that.

35:57Stuntman Chuck, we should have a brotherly segment at the end of the show.

36:02I'm going to do that. You know what I mean?

36:05Now that I own the show and I can sort of do what I want, I can drink on the show.

36:11I can sort of do whatever I want. Um, I'm waiting.

36:14I want an alcohol sponsor, but, um, uh, so heads up to any advertisers watching when we get an alcohol sponsor, glug, glug.

36:21Um, and when we have our set built, we're getting our set built, which is going to be a much, you know,

36:27a much more fuller bar set and everything like that.

36:30Then, um, uh, we'll have some fun there. It will do some shots.

36:34Um, I, I guess, look, you could see the lambs got, CD lambs had his own injury issues.

36:40He's got to deal with George Pickens. Um, uh, you know, um, Justin Jefferson, like we just, we don't know, we don't

36:46know what's going to happen with Kyler. We think he's going to be better than JJ McCarthy, but we also think, you

36:53know, we also saw like he couldn't get the ball to Marvin Harrison.

36:57So who knows, um, on him? Um, and then, uh, who's the, oh, and I'm on raw.

37:02You said, yeah, I agree with you on, I'm on raw.

37:05Um, I have him, uh, ahead of JT. Um, but yeah, understood, understood the, uh, the argument there.

37:10You have another running back here. And I think I get the argument here, which is Brees Hall.

37:16And is obviously there's, there's, uh, there's injury concerns.

37:18There's also the fact that this is a guy that's never had a season with more than five rushing touchdowns.

37:24Um, but, uh, and the jets obviously are the jets.

37:27All that said, Frank Reich in, in when he was Frank Reich, who's going to be calling the plays for the jets, obviously.

37:34And, uh, when he was the head coach of the Colts 2018 to 2022, those four years, the Colts were actually seventh

37:40and running back receptions during Frank Reich's tenure. So, you know, I mean, this is, that's really the argument is how much

37:47passing game work does Brees Hall get? I think he gets a lot.

37:51So I'm at running back 15. Um, I'm at 32 overall, you'm at 42 overall.

37:55So you're, you know, you're around behind me on Brees Hall.

37:59Give me your thoughts there on the jets running back.

38:02Yeah. Good player. And I would say he's made the best of bad circumstances.

38:06And when you say he's never had more than five rushing touchdowns in a season, that's just another way of saying he's

38:12been on the jets for his entire career, you know?

38:15And, and you mentioned Frank Reich, who I think earlier in his career was much more innovative, but I think his system has become increasingly stale.

38:23And so we look at his past two NFL offenses, the 2022 Colts, the 2023 Panthers, both of them were bottom three units in scoring.

38:30I think the 2026 jets might actually be worse than last year's team, which was three and 14.

38:36And that's saying something. And Dwayne McFarlane, who does the, uh, manages the projections at fantasy life again on my Mount Rushmore,

38:42Matthew, along with you, uh, he wrote a great sale too late.

38:46He wrote a great article on the site, which everyone should check out talking about what matters for running backs in fantasy football.

38:53And the guys who are, who are on terrible teams, they rarely become league winners.

38:57Like I think Brees Hall, despite the talent that he has at best is just going to be like a solid RB two.

39:04But man, if things go really sideways for that jets team, like a great player could just have a season submarine.

39:10Yeah. Yeah. Stuntman Chuck said this, uh, I think it was Stuntman Chuck who said basically, you know, give, he was giving

39:17you crap for like, oh, really you're fading a jet.

39:20And Ryan Hudson saying Brees Hall fade is something that this chat can get behind.

39:24Listen, listen, you animals. I'm just going to say this right now.

39:28Um, you don't, you're not allowed to give Friedman, you know, shit about, uh, uh, you know, fading a jet.

39:34I mean, this is a guy that he's fading Lamar Jackson and Jonathan Taylor and Bo Nick.

39:39Like he's, he's, you like say what you want, but Friedman's got some cojones there.

39:43So, um, uh, so I admire that. I guess my take on Brees Hall is that I think the receptions, I agree with you.

39:50There's a ceiling that's capped, right? You know, I mean, I think if everything goes as well as it could for Brees

39:57Hall, you know, maybe he's running back 10, right?

40:00Like, I think it's hard to imagine a scenario where he outperforms, um, a Caffrey or a Bijan or Gibbs or, you

40:06know, any of even a Jonathan Taylor, you know, but I do think the passing game involvement will be there.

40:12I do think, um, that that keeps his floor higher.

40:15And I think Gino is going to be better than, than people think.

40:19I'm not saying Gino is going to be great, but the, the jets have been, been so abysmal for so long because

40:25they've just, they've literally had like, you know, league worst quarterback play.

40:29And I think Gino Smith, we had Connor Rogers on yesterday.

40:32My buddy Connor Rogers, who covers the jets backwards and forwards does a great job.

40:37You know, works for SNY among 8 million other things that he does.

40:41And he was just like, Gino's actually looking great in practice.

40:44He was actually at jets camp on Tuesday. And if Gino and, and I've talked to scouts around the NFL Friedman.

40:50Uh, I remember going to the combine when, and talking about like who, you know, all this quarterback shuffling and where's two are going to go.

40:58And, you know, uh, where's cousin is cousins going to get a gig and Flacco and all these guys that were sort of free agents.

41:05And a lot of people told me Gino Smith is somebody that a lot of people are interested.

41:11The Vikings were in on Gino Smith. Um, he obviously winds up, uh, with the jets, but a lot of people told

41:17me like Gino's tape from last year is not bad.

41:20That offense around them was so brutal. It was such a dysfunctional system just, and just nothing was happening in the worst offensive line of football.

41:28But like, if you look at it, it was all scheme-based and it was all just like Gino.

41:33It's not like they were basically saying like, not that Gino's great, but that Gino's last year in Seattle, he's not that far off from that.

41:41Right. Um, and, uh, Martin, uh, Martin and Zadula says Friedman would faint Santa Claus if this was a Christmas special.

41:47That's true. Great line. Yeah. That is a great line and accurate.

41:51And I'm sure we, of course, um, uh, yes.

41:53Uh, the, the Fadler, uh, yeah, that's a bad, great one.

41:57The Fadler. Absolutely. Friedman is now the Fadler. Um, anyway, I just, I think Gino is going to be like a, uh,

42:03you know, the 17th best quarterback in the NFL, the 20th best quarterback, as long as he's like Seattle Gino and he's

42:10like reasonably competent, I think this offense will be good enough to, um, be, you know, within the range of competent.

42:16Um, so, uh, so we're, we're on different sides of Brees Hall, but I think we're probably closer on T Higgins.

42:22We both have him at wide receiver 16. I'm at 36 and ADP, uh, in my overall, you have met 35.

42:28Um, believe it or not, we are both actually higher on him.

42:32You know, consensus is ADP is 41. So we both have them around the same time, uh, around the same range and we're higher on overall consensus.

42:40But why do you find, why do you think you won't wind up with T Higgins on your team this year?

42:46I just think there's a really low ceiling with him unless Jamar chase gets injured.

42:51And I will say, I think T Higgins as a player is actually super talented.

42:55And if we look at their five years together, Jamar chase T Higgins, Higgins without chase has had 90.3 yards receiving per game.

43:02You look at chase without Higgins, 86.4. Like when Higgins has had the opportunity to be like a true alpha, he's actually fit the bill.

43:09The problem is when chase is there, Higgins has 63.4 yards receiving per game.

43:14Right. And then also you add on the injuries.

43:16He has missed 16 games over the past half decade.

43:19So you put all that together and it means he's never had a season of more than 110 yards, never had a season of even 1100 yards receiving.

43:28The only way he absolutely crushes ADP is if the Bengals offense just somehow suddenly goes off with Zach Taylor is as the play caller.

43:35I don't think that's going to happen. Or if Jamar chase gets injured and then we see T Higgins just get all of those targets to himself.

43:43Otherwise, I think Higgins has a normal season for him, like 900 yards and nine touchdowns.

43:48And that's fine. But I don't think he's going to be someone who breaks the league for you.

43:53And he's still going high enough to where at that point, I want to find someone who I think has a ceiling, not just a really nice floor.

44:01Yeah, look, you know, he's finished higher than wide receiver 23 and utilizes his score only once in the past four years,

44:0812 missed games since 2023 on his own right.

44:11And you're right. As long as Jamar Chase, proud fantasy life investor Jamar Chase is healthy, the ceiling on T Higgins is capped.

44:17And there's some other guys going around his range where there are where you could see their scenarios.

44:23There are easier paths to, you know, elite top five fantasy production than there necessarily is for T Higgins.

44:28But we like the player and we like the offense.

44:31And so, again, I will just say that for me, especially if I went running back in one of the first two

44:38rounds, if T Higgins is my number two wide receiver, I'm fine with that.

44:42There's, you know, you're trading a little bit of upside, but I don't have a problem with him as a number two wide receiver.

44:49But I certainly understand the argument. I don't understand the argument or I don't agree with the argument.

44:55That's a better way to put it. I don't agree with the argument on Jordan Addison, but I'm pretty sure I understand it.

45:01You have it 121 overall. I'm at 96. And so his ADP is 108.

45:06So you are significantly below the market on Jordan Addison, which feels like a weird one.

45:10Like what would Jordan Addison? Why am I catching shrapnel?

45:13What's going on here? Why do you hate Jordan Addison?

45:16Why is he your Santa Claus? So great, great question.

45:19Great way of phrasing it. Mr. Berry, you have a way with words.

45:23Let me say. So two things with this. One is that there, as you mentioned earlier, there are the questions with that Vikings offense, especially at quarterback.

45:31Even if Kyler is the quarterback, does he play to the level that we want him to play?

45:36And then I would say the second thing with Jordan Addison.

45:40And for me, the bigger thing is that he has almost no chance of becoming the number one wide receiver within his offense.

45:47Yeah. Right. Unless Justin Jefferson misses half of the year.

45:50Almost no chance. If you look at a number of the other wide receivers.

45:54But he's going in the 11th round. I mean, it's hard, you know, the, you know, he's going in the 11th round, Friedman.

46:01We're not expecting Guy to be the number one wide receiver in fantasy or even the number one fantasy wide receiver on

46:07his team for guys going in the 11th round.

46:10Look at some of the guys going around him.

46:12Brenton Johnston. He actually kind of has been low key.

46:15The number one wide receiver for the Chargers over the past two years.

46:19Jacoby Myers actually has a shot of being the number one wide receiver for the Jags.

46:24Wandel Robinson. Yeah. The PPR cheat code. Yeah. Jaden Reed might be the best receiver for the Packers this year.

46:30Josh Downs might be the best receiver for the Colts.

46:33And so I just look at these other guys going around him.

46:36And as you mentioned, you can imagine the past.

46:39You're right. Like I like all those guys. Keep going.

46:42Keep going. But yeah, that's a great point. Imagine the path that they have to fantasy relevance.

46:47And then imagine the path Jordan Addison has to fantasy relevance.

46:50All of those guys have an easier path. Yeah.

46:53H. Groh says, don't forget, you know, Juwan is going to steal targets from Addison.

46:58I don't know. I don't know. Third and one.

47:00Yeah. Third and Juwan. Right. Juwan Jennings is there as well.

47:04You know, if TJ Hawkinson, another year healthier, does he get a little bit?

47:08We've seen Kyler use the tight end more than I think they have perhaps.

47:12So I think there's an argument there. The one, the positive on Addison, the pro Addison, the pro Addison argument here is

47:18that in the 46 games that Jordan Addison has played, he's got 35 end zone targets.

47:23He's had double digit end zone targets in every single season of his career.

47:27You know, 13.7 ADOT last year, which was fourth among wide receivers that saw at least 75 targets.

47:33Like, again, new quarterback, but still the same system.

47:35Right. And just, you know, whatever you think of Kyler Murray, you have to believe he's going to be more accurate, especially

47:42down the field than JJ McCarthy was last year.

47:45You know? And so I think that's the argument on Addison.

47:48I think he's a nice player. I like him.

47:50I agree with your argument that Jacoby Myers has a shot at being the number one Jags wide receiver that, you know,

47:57certainly Josh Downs very likely is going to be the number one Colts wide receiver on, on, on.

48:02So some of the guys in that range have quote number one wide receiver on the team.

48:07But like, there's also like Jordan Addison could have, you know, eight touchdowns this year.

48:12Right. I mean, like anyway, so I'm just, you know, anyway, again, he's my wide receiver 44.

48:17He's your wide receiver 48. I'm at 96 overall.

48:20So I'm inside my top 100. But I definitely understand that argument a lot better after talking about it because there is, there's some real, real choices there.

48:28And the other thing that I think is interesting about that argument is just think about the names you just read.

48:34You know, whether it's like, we like Jacoby Myers a lot.

48:37We like Josh Downs a lot. Like, you know, when you said Addison and I forget there was somebody else you said around that, around that range.

48:45Jaden, Jaden Reed, Wondell Robinson. Yeah. Yeah. Wondell Robinson, especially reunited with Brian Dayball.

48:50And I think they're going to be throwing. I think Cam, Cam Ward will be better this year.

48:55So, yeah. Wondell Robinson and Jaden Reed who, you know, if he can stay healthy, right?

49:00And less target competition now in Green Bay that, you know, Dobbs and Dontavian Wicks are out.

49:05So, yeah, Ved says Niners will trade for Addison midseason.

49:08I could see it. I could absolutely see it.

49:10Maybe not even midseason. Like, they need wide receiver help right now.

49:14But I think it's just a larger point, Friedman, about the fact that wide receiver is sneaky deep this year.

49:20And so it's one of the more arguments for why you probably want to do a running back in one of the first two rounds.

49:27We can talk about that a little bit later.

49:30But somebody's going to make a clickbaity headline about this because Trey McBride, friend of the show, multiple time friend of the

49:37show, Trey McBride is on your fades list. I love Trey McBride, by the way.

49:41Trey McBride follows me on Instagram. I will never say anything bad about Trey McBride.

49:45I've met him multiple times. He's an awesome human being.

49:48He's come on our show, I think, three or four years in a row.

49:53We love ourselves from Trey McBride here. So I just want Trey McBride and all the Trey McBride fans, all the trailers,

49:59all the McBrideians to know that we don't stand for this slander.

50:03Friedman is alone on an island on this one.

50:05What do you got? Okay, I will say out of all of the fades on this list, you know, Lamar Jackson, Jonathan

50:12Taylor, this is the one that I am most scared of.

50:15Sure. Because, I mean, those other players are great, but Trey McBride last year was just amazing.

50:20And over the past two years, number two in the league in targets and receptions, number six in receiving yards, last season, the 11 touchdowns.

50:28He's basically a wide receiver playing tight end. And I am in fear that he's just going to dunk on me this year.

50:34And I'm going to get Cardinals fans, Trey McBride investors messaging me about how I don't know anything about anything.

50:40And they're not wrong. But what I look at with Trey McBride is I think he's in the same tier with Brock Bowers.

50:47I have Bowers projected ahead of him. And on ESPN, on Sleeper, McBride goes as the number one tight end off of the board.

50:54And so I just think that's wrong. If you're in a league where McBride falls to you as the number two tight

51:01end, and I've even seen it where Colson Loveland getting some hype, I've seen McBride actually fall to the number three tight end.

51:08Amazing value. I would love to get him there.

51:10I just don't want to be the guy who drafts the first tight end and have that be Trey McBride.

51:16If I can get him at tight end too, love it.

51:20Blind Boy Johnny says, Friedman is now a god.

51:22I have Bowers over McBride. So you're starting to win over some of the chat here.

51:27And I understand the argument in this sense, that you are fading the idea of Trey McBride as number one tight end overall.

51:34That you have Bowers at one, which by the way, so do I.

51:38I'm going to talk Lakers since the 80s as fading all pros for the win.

51:42Look, I mean, it's a ballsy call. I give you that.

51:45So I have McBride at tight end too, just like you do.

51:49We both have him at 22. Actually, we have the exact same rank.

51:53Market ADP has him at 22 overall as well.

51:56So we're all in line with market. But I know I've been in drafts where I've seen Trey McBride go number one.

52:02And here would be my argument, just to present a counter of like if you've already drafted and you drafted Trey McBride

52:09number one, why I'm okay with it. Or why if I was in a league and I saw somebody take McBride one,

52:15I wouldn't be like, what's that guy doing? And, you know, you referenced early in the show that like one of the

52:22things I think I was the first person to say is like you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it.

52:29And the other thing that I think I was the first person to say is it's like you don't have to finish

52:36as the number one player at a position to be worth drafting as the number one player in the position.

52:42Because along with that same rule, the idea here is that what you're drafting at the elite levels is you're drafting floor.

52:48You know what I mean? You obviously always want upside, but you're really drafting floor.

52:53Like because whatever. It's something like the studies that we've done.

52:5630% of your starting score generally comes from your first two picks.

53:00And then, you know, where you end up winning is when, you know, when you when you're in the margins and you

53:06find those those late run guys that pop. And so I think Trey McBride, you know, the anti-Browers, you know, Bowers has

53:13a new quarterback, new system, not a lot of competition around him, which you're like, OK, great.

53:18It's going to be a massive target share. But also, like, what if every defensive coordinator is just like, F it, man,

53:24we're going to triple team Brock Bowers and we'll take our chances with Trey Tucker or whatever it is.

53:30Right. You know that like every defensive coordinator, he's also somebody that he missed a lot of time last year.

53:36Bowers was just not healthy. Right. And so is that like just he had one bad year or is that a is that something that could continue?

53:44Trey McBride has come on our show every single year.

53:47The regulars know this. Every single year he comes on the super on our we do radio row and McBride comes on every single year.

53:54And we we asked McBride, give us your projection for this year.

53:58And for like three years in a row, he's just like, I'm going to have 100 catches.

54:03I'm going to have a thousand yards. I'm going to have 10 touchdowns.

54:07Last year was the first year that the touchdowns came true.

54:10But like every year, like he's just, you know, he's you know, he's a guy that like, you know, has, you know,

54:17basically a thousand yards and 100 receptions. And so I think that there's just a, you know, like like when we talk

54:23with Josh Allen, I don't know that Trey McBride finishes as the number one tight end in fantasy football.

54:29But I think barring an injury, there's no way he finishes outside the top three.

54:33I think that's fair. The one rebuttal I will have and they mentioned it here on the screen.

54:39I think that there's a possibility. We see a lot of Carson Beck this year for for the Cardinals.

54:44And raise the flag saying Hall of Fame MVP, future Hall of Famer Carson Beck throwing the ball halfway through the year.

54:51Raise the flag says that's scary after last night.

54:54Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe. Jokes aside. Jokes aside.

54:57OK, you've got. Yes, there's a chance we see Carson back in the second half of the year for sure.

55:02Yeah. And so I think that that can make the offense go sideways really quickly.

55:07So although McBride on his own, I think is sort of insulated.

55:11Right. He's like the guy within that offense. And I think he probably still finishes top three at the position and targets.

55:17If he's in a bad offense in the second half of the year, I think that's going to make his his investors.

55:24I wouldn't say regret drafting him, but just have have to suffer the unfortunate consequences of a guy who's underperforming when it matters the most in fantasy.

55:32Max Q 7007 says just fade McBride and Bowers and draft Loveland in the fourth.

55:36But I get that. I mean, listen, Colson Loveland's on the shortlist for ride or die.

55:41I think he's going to have a monster year.

55:43I think I'm not alone in thinking that a lot of people are on the Colson Loveland bandwagon.

55:49Hey, in our discord, Friedman, we ask people. So I want you to go check out Friedman's fades.

55:54There's more analysis there. There's more names in there.

55:57Go check out Friedman's fades on fantasylife.com. It's free.

56:00Go check it out. Great article. While you're there, you can check out my article, which is up in my ranks, which

56:06are all free, of course, at fantasylife.com. I'm a company man.

56:09So a couple of questions that came in on our discord, and I encourage everyone to join our discord.

56:15It's a great group. Despite the Bo Nix anger that came up today, generally speaking, the discord is a really awesome group, really energetic and smart fantasy players.

56:23And so it's just a great group. I highly recommend getting into the fantasy football happy hour discord.

56:29And like I said, I'll tweet a link. So just look through my social media on X.

56:34All right. So BG in the discord said, Friedman, in a 10-person three-keeper league, I'm looking to choose between Amon Ross St.

56:40Brown, CeeDee Lamb, or Justin Jefferson for my first round pick.

56:44Your thoughts? These were the wide receivers we talked about earlier.

56:47I would go with Amon Ross St. Brown, just been a certified boss for the past three years.

56:52Super high floor, great offense. No questions about him.

56:55Fourth straight season with at least a 27% target share.

56:58The only wide receiver to score at least 300 or more fantasy points PPR scoring in each of the past three seasons.

57:04All right. Fix-It Fire says, I usually, speaking of tight ends, we just had a whole tight end conversation, but Fix-It Fire

57:11says, I usually wait on tight end, but I really like Tyler Warren.

57:15But I also know I can get productive tight ends later.

57:18At what point should, quote, get your guys override your stance in strategy?

57:22It's a good question. Yeah, good question. I mean, I would say, I think some of it depends on how much you really love Tyler Warren.

57:30Like how convicted you are that he is significantly better than Tyler Craft, Harold Fannin, Sam Laporte, Kyle Pitt.

57:35Because if you have him up there in that tier with McBride and Loveland, then you think you're still, even at ADP, getting a value.

57:43But if it's like he's your guy, but you really don't have the conviction in him relative to Craft, Fannin, Laporte, Pitts,

57:49Kittle, then I think you just kind of wait and you take the value as it comes to you in your draft at the position.

57:57I think he's closer to the upper tier. Like, I mean, we talk about, hey, chance that this guy is the number one person on their team.

58:05We've talked about throughout the, like, there's absolutely a very real scenario where the most productive fantasy pass catcher on the Colts is Tyler Warren.

58:12Yes. Again, like, I mean, like, it's going to be middle of the field stuff.

58:17Healthy Daniel Jones. Like, we know the talent is there.

58:19He was hot early. He faded down the stretch.

58:22But, like, they're going to use him some in some tush-push situations as well.

58:26So there's absolutely a scenario where Tyler Warren is the number one pass catcher, has the most fantasy points of all the

58:33pass catchers on the Colts, and could be in the Colston-Loveland, you know, Bowers, closer to them.

58:38You know, like a clear number four versus down in the, you know, the Laporte-Kyle Pitts range.

58:43So I'm a big Tyler Warren fan. But fix it fire.

58:46I'll just say this. To answer the second part of your question, which I think is a better one, at what point

58:53should you, quote, should get your guys override your stance strategy?

58:56And my answer is immediately. Always. Starting in the first round.

58:59Because, look, at the end of the day, it's fantasy football, man.

59:03It's fake football. We do this for fun, right?

59:06Like, get your guys. Like, there's no right or wrong.

59:08The minute the first game kicks off, all rankings are out the window.

59:12Like, all rankings are out the window. And, you know, think about where I'm trying to think of, like, a good example from last year is.

59:20But, like, think about where people had, we talked about Lamar Jackson.

59:24Think about where people had Lamar Jackson last year and then where he finished, you know?

59:28Like, if you think about, you know, how you think about Ashton Gentile at this time last year versus where he ended up finishing.

59:36Like, I mean, you could pick a zillion examples.

59:38Like, as soon as the first kickoff happens, rankings are all out the window.

59:42And I'm always a big believer in is that, you know, you should always get your guys.

59:47You know, like, I get questions all the time for you, and I'm sure you do too, where I'll get a version of this question every single day.

59:56Be like, I've got the sixth overall pick, but I love Ken Walker this year.

60:00Is that too early for Ken Walker? Right? And you'd be like, for me in my ranks, yes, but the truth of

60:07the matter is, is, like, he's not falling to you in the second round.

60:11Assuming it's a 12-team league. Like, you know, I'd be shocked if he's there in the second.

60:16So if you want Ken Walker, if you're like, I think this guy's going to be, you know, I'm a big Chiefs fan.

60:23I think he's going to be, you know, the number one running back in fantasy.

60:27Then, like, draft Ken Walker. Like, you're not going to lose your league because, yeah, I've drafted Ken Walker, you know, like, six spots ahead of ADP.

60:35Like, you know what I mean? I get too much of that.

60:39Like, I believe in Jeremiah Love, but I got the 10th pick.

60:42Is that too early? Nah, dude. Like, I'm, you know, I'm like five spots later or whatever.

60:47You know, I have a – but, like, you're not losing your league because you jumped around on ADP or you were six spots higher.

60:55So fix and fire. I'm a big believer in – get your guys whenever.

60:59Like, we're doing this for fun, man. It's a hobby.

61:02Like, get the guys you want to root for.

61:05Because with injuries and just, you know, you never know how it's going to ultimately play out.

61:10All right. One more here from Chaster. A lot of the years, the value of running backs largely depends on the overall

61:16health of the players at the position. The last few years, it seems like running backs drafted in the first two rounds have been relatively healthy.

61:24Do you think this perceived stability is causing the major cluster of those six to eight running backs we are seeing around the one-two turn?

61:31And is that a potential trap that just basically, hey, we're backing on running backs high up because they've stayed healthy?

61:38Especially these older running backs have stayed healthy. Is that a trap, Friedman?

61:42Or is it just a matter of, you know, how the draft is going?

61:46And where the value is? Yeah. I think this is a great question.

61:50So part of it, I think, has to do with the fact that passing has decreased in the league over the past three years.

61:57And so with that, you see running backs relative to offensive production in general starting to stand out more.

62:02And then also, I think there's a pretty big teardrop for me between the guys going in the first and second rounds

62:09at running back and the guys going after that.

62:12And so I think that is also part of the market dynamics of people looking at the position and thinking, well, I've

62:18got to get one of these guys. Because if I don't, I'm just kind of floating in an uncertain sea of like Brees Halls and Kyron Williams's, right?

62:26And so it's a situation, I think, where there's just so much desire to get one of these guys that is driving prices up.

62:34And so I will say, I don't know if it's necessarily a trap, but I do think it is creating value for

62:40some of those other positions in round one. Like Brock Bowers for rounds one and two, Brock Bowers, for example, or some

62:47of these wide receivers who go in round two.

62:49So I wouldn't say it's a trap, but I do think I'm fine only getting one of those running backs in rounds

62:56one and two and then addressing one of the other positions to have some balance.

63:00Because I think there might be a little bit of inflation at the running back position.

63:05That's fair enough. I also, again, you've got some question marks at wide receivers who we sort of talked about, but I

63:12completely agree with your answer there, Friedman. So, well, you end on an agreement.

63:16Look at that. You and I on the same page.

63:19Great answer. Everyone go follow him on social media at MattFTheOracle.

63:22Obviously, from that episode of The League, MattFTheOracle on X.

63:25And go look at all of his stuff on FantasyLife.com.

63:28It's fantastic. He is one of our stars. He is a friend and a scholar.

63:32Matt, congratulations. Congratulations, Friedman. Thank you so much for doing the show.

63:36Look, it's closing time, everyone, which means you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.

63:41We are back on Monday, live at noon with my buddy, JJ Zachariason, joining the happy hour.

63:46So I'm excited to have JJ on the show.

63:49He's never been on the show before. So I'm excited to have JJ on Monday.

63:53Everyone have a great weekend. We'll see you on Monday.

63:56Peace out.

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