Week 4 Love/Hate

Matthew Berry references Austin Ekeler's breakout year as one of his successful calls that he's proud of, though he notes that successful predictions like this are less remembered than his high-profile misses.

Matthew Berry expresses a love for Bijan Robinson, positioning him as a preferred Falcons offensive weapon target.

Matthew Berry ranks Bryce Young inside his top 12 at QB11 this week. Despite a disappointing performance last week, Berry expects this to be a high-scoring game against the Lions. No team in the NFL is worse in pass defense than Detroit; they are giving up 30 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Young is a viable streamer this week given the matchup.

In the context of Matthew Berry's hate on Emeka Abuka, the co-host mentions that Bucky Irving is being started, suggesting Irving has a role in the Tampa Bay offense under new quarterback Jalen Daniels, though the overall concern about Tampa Bay's offensive uncertainty remains.

Matthew Berry references Chase Brown (nicknamed 'the Brown Gobbler') as a player who should be gobbling up fantasy points in the Jaguars-Bengals matchup. Brown is highlighted as part of the Bengals' receiving corps that should benefit from the high game environment (51.5 over/under).

Moe Hassan likes Darren Waller for Week 4 against the Lions, who have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends through three games. Waller is presented as a solid tight end option if someone needs depth at the position.

Matthew Berry cites Darren Waller as one of his proudest correct calls, highlighting it as a successful breakout prediction that contrasts with his more-remembered misses like Michael Vick at number one overall in 2011.

Matthew Berry has Denzel Boston outside his top 30 this week in the Steelers-Browns matchup. Berry expects this to be a low-scoring game.

Moe recommends Deshaun Watson over 5.5 rushing attempts as a prop bet. Watson is averaging 8 rushing attempts per game and has hit this number in all 3 games so far. Watson is prone to quickly running when he doesn't see coverage or when his receivers aren't getting open; he did this frequently in the fourth quarter last week as well.

Matthew Berry has DK Metcalf outside his top 30 this week. Metcalf is being covered by Denzel Ward, who is a strong cornerback. Despite Metcalf's talent, Berry prefers other receivers in this matchup. However, Beatle makes a parlay bet including DK Metcalf anytime touchdown, noting that Metcalf just had his first touchdown last week.

Matthew Berry ranks Drake London as his number seven wide receiver for Week 4 against the Saints. In his career with Michael Penix as a starter, London is averaging a 35% target share and over 104 yards per game; in Penix's first game back last week, London posted a 43.5% target share with 9 catches for 194 yards against the Packers. The Saints have allowed the fifth most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season.

Drake London ranks fourth in average separation score (ASS rankings by Scott Barrett), which is notable given he is not the fastest wide receiver in the NFL. His separation ability is driven by route-running craft rather than pure speed. Michael Penix has shown a strong connection with London, similar to his college pattern at Washington with Jalen Dunze, throwing to him almost every play.

Matthew Berry expresses a love for Drake London, positioning him as a preferred Falcons receiver target over Kyle Pitts.

Matthew Berry identifies a scenario where Emeka Egbuka could surprise people: Jalen Hurts' leg versatility extending plays outside of pressure situations, creating broken plays where Egbuka can respond. Against Jonathan Gannon's defense (sixth in pressure), the Eagles may rely on quick passes and gap scheme runs, but Egbuka's upside emerges when Hurts escapes the pocket and extends plays.

Matthew Berry ranks Garrett Wilson as a top 10 play for Week 4 against the Bears. The Bears allow over 14 yards per reception to wide receivers this season. Wilson has caught almost 80% of his targets and is averaging nine yards per target. Through three games, he ranks eighth in targets, ninth in yards, and fifth in receptions in the NFL.

Garrett Wilson is posting an NFL-best 88.9% contested catch rate, indicating both his physical ability at the point of attack and Geno Smith's trust in him in high-leverage situations. Smith is in his first year with the Seahawks and is establishing Wilson as his primary target in must-have moments.

Matthew Berry ranks George Kittle as his tight end three for Week 4 against the Broncos. Target share and snap participation have increased every week; he posted a 27% target share last week. The Broncos have allowed the sixth most yards to opposing tight ends this season. Kittle was drafted around the eighth or ninth round, making him a steal of the season so far.

George Kittle's snap participation has ramped up significantly in his return from Achilles injury, increasing from 48% of snaps to 85% last week. Moe Hassan notes Kittle is ninth in yards after catch (YAC) with 77 yards despite limited volume, and expects him to remain in the mid-80s to 90s snap range going forward as the 49ers grow more comfortable with his health.

Matthew Berry ranks Harold Fannan as a top-12 play this week in the Steelers-Browns matchup. Fannan is highlighted as an interesting tight end option.

Jalen Daniels is an undrafted quarterback making his first start for Tampa Bay in Week 4 against Jonathan Gannon's defense, which ranks sixth in pressure. The uncertainty around Daniels' performance is cited as a reason for caution on Tampa Bay receivers like Emeka Abuka.

Matthew Berry expresses a love for Jalen Warren in Week 4, noting that Jaylen Warren is part of a parlay and will be a strong play.

Matthew Berry ranks Jalen Warren as a top nine play this week against Cleveland. Warren led all NFL running backs in snap share at 90% last week when Reku Dottle was out, and received 20 of 22 Steelers running back touches. The Browns have allowed at least 88 yards to a running back in every game this season and allow the second-most explosive plays in the league to running backs. Warren is third in the league with 3.1 yards after contact per rush, making him a home run hitter in a perfect matchup.

When Jaylen Warren was out last week, Jalen Warren led all running backs in the NFL with 90% snap share, demonstrating elite volume opportunity when the starter is unavailable.

Jalen Warren had 127 yards on 17 carries last week with an 87-yard run called back, demonstrating his explosive potential. He is a home run hitter in an offense with an improving offensive line that is third in the league with 3.1 yards after contact per rush, allowing him to make defenders miss at the second level.

Matthew Berry includes Jalen Warren on the love list for Week 4 and recommends starting him. Warren is highlighted as a strong play in the Steelers-Browns matchup.

Matthew Berry notes that Jalen Wright will see meaningful work alongside Ollie Gordon in the Dolphins' backfield, particularly in a game where Miami might be trailing on the road at Minnesota. The Vikings have held all opposing running backs to under 47 rushing yards this season, making this a difficult matchup for both Dolphins backs.

Jeremiah Love faces the New York Giants this week, who are giving up over five yards per carry to opposing running backs—third most in the NFL. The Giants are also third in yards per carry allowed at 5.1, behind only the Panthers and Broncos, making this an elite matchup for Love's elite workload.

Matthew Berry identifies Jeremiah Love as a top 12 play this week and notes the long-awaited breakout has arrived. Love received 26 touches last week, more than he had in week three and more than weeks one and two combined. He is running back five in utilization score with a massive workload and maintains double-digit target share in every game this season, indicating consistent involvement in the passing game.

Jordan Addison is receiving votes as a potential play for Week 4 against Miami. Justin Jefferson is banged up and may not play or may not be 100% if he does. The Dolphins allow the second highest catch rate to opposing wide receivers this season.

Matthew Berry highlights Jordan Addison as one of the best route runners and a key weapon for Kyler Murray against the Dolphins. Addison is mentioned as part of the Vikings' strong receiving corps that should be able to put up points even if Justin Jefferson is out.

Matthew Berry ranks Josh Downs as a top 20 wide receiver play for Week 4 against the Commanders. The Commanders have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the most touchdowns to slot receivers this season. Over the past two games with Alec Pierce out, Downs has posted a 31% target share and 43% of the Colts' red zone targets.

Josh Downs ranks number one in average separation score (ASS rankings), meaning no receiver in the NFL gets more separation than Downs. He is the clear-cut number one wide receiver option on the Colts offense and plays against a Commanders defense that has given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Matthew Berry ranks Justin Herbert outside his top 20 this week and has dropped him in some 10- and 12-team one-quarterback leagues. Herbert has been pressured on 44% of his dropbacks this season; the Seahawks rank fourth in pressure rate. Seattle allows a league-low 5 yards per pass attempt and 8 yards per completion. The Chargers have a bottom-three implied team total. Berry was high on Herbert in the preseason but calls it one of his worst calls; he prefers Kyler Murray, Bryce Young, and Marcus Mariota over Herbert.

Matthew Berry ranks Juwan Johnson as a top 10 tight end play for Week 4 against the Falcons. Johnson has seen a 40% end zone target share so far this season, and the Falcons defense has already given up three touchdowns to tight ends.

Matthew Berry has Kyle Pitts on his hate list due to poor production with Michael Penix under center: averaging under 16% target share and 34 receiving yards per game; nine of his 13 games with Penix have resulted in under 8 fantasy points. Penix heavily favors Drake London and ignores Pitts. Berry ranks Pitts outside his top 20 tight ends this season, preferring Drake London and Bijan Robinson in the Falcons offense.

Matthew Berry has Kyle Pitts outside his top 20 at the tight end position, indicating a fade on the Falcons tight end despite his draft capital and name recognition.

Matthew Berry ranks Kyler Murray as a top-12 play this week. Murray is facing the Dolphins, who are giving up over 9 yards per pass attempt. The Vikings offense should be able to put up points this week even if Justin Jefferson is out. Berry recommends Kyler Murray as a streamer option.

Matthew Berry ranks Marcus Mariota as QB14 this week. Assuming Jaden Daniels does not return, Mariota is expected to start again and is a viable streaming option against the Colts. Indianapolis ranks in the bottom three in pass defense, giving up almost 22 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Matthew Golden is top 12 among wide receivers in utilization score through the first three weeks of the season and is receiving votes as a potential play for Week 4 at Tampa Bay.

Michael Wilson is the number one wide receiver in utilization for Week 4 against the Giants, posting a 32% target share over the past two games.

Matthew Berry recalls a successful waiver wire pickup call on Miles Austin when the Cowboys had an inactive wide receiver. Berry recommended picking up and starting Austin based on a favorable matchup, and Austin delivered with 250 yards and two touchdowns that day.

Matthew Berry ranks Ollie Gordon as RB33, outside his top 30, and is benching him where possible. Gordon is averaging 2.9 yards per carry for his career; the Dolphins are significant underdogs at Minnesota, which has held all opposing running backs to under 47 rushing yards this season. Even as the primary back, Gordon will share work with Jalen Wright in a tough matchup against one of the NFL's best run defenses. The Dolphins' offensive line is poor, and Gordon is a downhill runner who needs a good line to be effective.

Matthew Berry ranks Quinshawn Judkins as a low-end RB2 to high-end flex play this week, with a ranking of RB23 on Fantasy Life. Judkins is a viable option in the Steelers-Browns matchup.

Matthew Berry has Roman Wilson outside his top 40 this week. However, Moe highlights Roman Wilson as a potential anytime touchdown play against the Steelers, noting that Wilson is primarily used at the slot position between the hashes, where the Browns have allowed 4 of their 6 passing touchdowns. Wilson is averaging 6.3 targets per game.

Matthew Berry ranks Trevor Lawrence as QB3 this week. Lawrence has scored at least 19 fantasy points in 8 of his past 9 games dating back to last season. The Jaguars-Bengals matchup has a 51.5 over/under, the highest game total on the Week 4 slate, providing excellent game environment. Lawrence faced Cincinnati last season and posted 270 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 2. He has all his weapons healthy (BTJ, Parker, and others) and is playing at a high level.

Matthew Berry has Xavier Worthy on his hate list due to declining target share (decreasing every week while Rasheed Rice ramps up), shallow average depth of target (under 7 yards), and only 20% of targets on deep passes despite being drafted as a Tyreek Hill-type deep threat. Through three games, 15 targets and 10 catches show underutilization; the Chiefs aren't manufacturing enough touches or involving him in the screen game. Matchup concern: Raiders allow third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and are 4-0 at home against AFC West opponents.